O presente trabalha busca avaliar o processo de liberalização da conta capital em implementação no Brasil a partir da década de 1990, através da pesquisa nos trabalhos já registrados na literatura internacional (capítulo 2), associada a uma abordagem empírica própria (capítulo 4). Utiliza-se de dois índices independentes para avaliar o comportamento do setor externo da economia (ICC, de jure, e IAF, de facto), e, assim, realizar maiores inferências econométricas sobre tal processo, somando-se às iniciativas anteriores em compreender os vínculos entre a abertura financeira e o desempenho macroeconômico nos países em desenvolvimento em geral, e no Brasil, em particular. Nesse sentido, identificou-se a ampliação do grau de conversibilidade da conta capital do País no período 1990-2005 (capítulo 3) sem, entretanto, se verificar uma evidência de geração de benefícios em termos de crescimento econômico e de redução de volatilidade macroeconômica, nos termos apontados nos exercícios econométricos – o IAF chega, inclusive, a apontar uma relação robusta do aumento dos fluxos financeiros com uma maior oscilação da taxa de câmbio. Os resultados apresentados vão ao encontro da tendência predominante na literatura internacional, qual seja, de que não se consegue estabelecer uma relação causal positiva e robusta entre liberalização financeira e crescimento econômico. No mesmo sentido, a experiência brasileira na liberalização financeira, capturada pela evolução do ICC e do IAF, parece estar vinculada a um aumento na taxa de juros, e não a sua redução. Esses resultados confirmam a hipótese de que a integração de um país em desenvolvimento aos fluxos de capitais internacionais leva à necessidade de práticas de juros mais altas para atraí-los e os manter no País. Conclui-se pela conveniência de um grau ótimo de exposição dos países periféricos aos fluxos de capitais internacionais, controlando riscos e proporcionando avanços econômicos, sobretudo contando com um gerenciamento prudencial da conta capital por parte das autoridades monetárias. / The present study seeks to investigate the dynamics of capital account liberalization in implementation in Brazil since the 1990’s, analyzing previous papers on international literature (chapter 2), associated with an empirical framework, based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) method (chapter 4). It’s used two independents index as proxies in order to evaluate the behavior of external sector of the economy (ICC, de jure, and IAF, de facto), and, hence, make the econometric inferences about such process. In general terms, the aim is to contribute by comprehending the relation between financial openness and macroeconomic performance in developing countries, in general, and specifically in Brazil. For such, the task identified the broadening of capital account convertibility in the period 1990-2005 (chapter 3), without verifying evidences on benefits such as economic growth or reduction of macroeconomic volatile, according to the econometric exercises – IAF, indeed, supports a strong relation between the increase of financial flows with a greater variability on exchange terms. The empirical findings are similar to those predominant on international literature, i.e., that it does not exist a positive and strong association between financial liberalization and economic growth. In fact, brazilian experience on financial liberalization, measured by the ICC and IAF, seems to be related to an increase on interest rates, and not on its reduction, as could be supposed, which confirm the hypothesis that integration of a developing country to international capital flows creates the necessity of higher interest rates to attract and maintain then in a country. We conclude for the convenience of an optimum exposition of periphery economies to international capital flows, through a prudent management of capital account by the monetary authorities, controlling associated risks while permitting economic advances.

O presente trabalha busca avaliar o processo de liberalização da conta capital em implementação no Brasil a partir da década de 1990, através da pesquisa nos trabalhos já registrados na literatura internacional (capítulo 2), associada a uma abordagem empírica própria (capítulo 4). Utiliza-se de dois índices independentes para avaliar o comportamento do setor externo da economia (ICC, de jure, e IAF, de facto), e, assim, realizar maiores inferências econométricas sobre tal processo, somando-se às iniciativas anteriores em compreender os vínculos entre a abertura financeira e o desempenho macroeconômico nos países em desenvolvimento em geral, e no Brasil, em particular. Nesse sentido, identificou-se a ampliação do grau de conversibilidade da conta capital do País no período 1990-2005 (capítulo 3) sem, entretanto, se verificar uma evidência de geração de benefícios em termos de crescimento econômico e de redução de volatilidade macroeconômica, nos termos apontados nos exercícios econométricos – o IAF chega, inclusive, a apontar uma relação robusta do aumento dos fluxos financeiros com uma maior oscilação da taxa de câmbio. Os resultados apresentados vão ao encontro da tendência predominante na literatura internacional, qual seja, de que não se consegue estabelecer uma relação causal positiva e robusta entre liberalização financeira e crescimento econômico. No mesmo sentido, a experiência brasileira na liberalização financeira, capturada pela evolução do ICC e do IAF, parece estar vinculada a um aumento na taxa de juros, e não a sua redução. Esses resultados confirmam a hipótese de que a integração de um país em desenvolvimento aos fluxos de capitais internacionais leva à necessidade de práticas de juros mais altas para atraí-los e os manter no País. Conclui-se pela conveniência de um grau ótimo de exposição dos países periféricos aos fluxos de capitais internacionais, controlando riscos e proporcionando avanços econômicos, sobretudo contando com um gerenciamento prudencial da conta capital por parte das autoridades monetárias. / The present study seeks to investigate the dynamics of capital account liberalization in implementation in Brazil since the 1990’s, analyzing previous papers on international literature (chapter 2), associated with an empirical framework, based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) method (chapter 4). It’s used two independents index as proxies in order to evaluate the behavior of external sector of the economy (ICC, de jure, and IAF, de facto), and, hence, make the econometric inferences about such process. In general terms, the aim is to contribute by comprehending the relation between financial openness and macroeconomic performance in developing countries, in general, and specifically in Brazil. For such, the task identified the broadening of capital account convertibility in the period 1990-2005 (chapter 3), without verifying evidences on benefits such as economic growth or reduction of macroeconomic volatile, according to the econometric exercises – IAF, indeed, supports a strong relation between the increase of financial flows with a greater variability on exchange terms. The empirical findings are similar to those predominant on international literature, i.e., that it does not exist a positive and strong association between financial liberalization and economic growth. In fact, brazilian experience on financial liberalization, measured by the ICC and IAF, seems to be related to an increase on interest rates, and not on its reduction, as could be supposed, which confirm the hypothesis that integration of a developing country to international capital flows creates the necessity of higher interest rates to attract and maintain then in a country. We conclude for the convenience of an optimum exposition of periphery economies to international capital flows, through a prudent management of capital account by the monetary authorities, controlling associated risks while permitting economic advances.

O presente trabalha busca avaliar o processo de liberalização da conta capital em implementação no Brasil a partir da década de 1990, através da pesquisa nos trabalhos já registrados na literatura internacional (capítulo 2), associada a uma abordagem empírica própria (capítulo 4). Utiliza-se de dois índices independentes para avaliar o comportamento do setor externo da economia (ICC, de jure, e IAF, de facto), e, assim, realizar maiores inferências econométricas sobre tal processo, somando-se às iniciativas anteriores em compreender os vínculos entre a abertura financeira e o desempenho macroeconômico nos países em desenvolvimento em geral, e no Brasil, em particular. Nesse sentido, identificou-se a ampliação do grau de conversibilidade da conta capital do País no período 1990-2005 (capítulo 3) sem, entretanto, se verificar uma evidência de geração de benefícios em termos de crescimento econômico e de redução de volatilidade macroeconômica, nos termos apontados nos exercícios econométricos – o IAF chega, inclusive, a apontar uma relação robusta do aumento dos fluxos financeiros com uma maior oscilação da taxa de câmbio. Os resultados apresentados vão ao encontro da tendência predominante na literatura internacional, qual seja, de que não se consegue estabelecer uma relação causal positiva e robusta entre liberalização financeira e crescimento econômico. No mesmo sentido, a experiência brasileira na liberalização financeira, capturada pela evolução do ICC e do IAF, parece estar vinculada a um aumento na taxa de juros, e não a sua redução. Esses resultados confirmam a hipótese de que a integração de um país em desenvolvimento aos fluxos de capitais internacionais leva à necessidade de práticas de juros mais altas para atraí-los e os manter no País. Conclui-se pela conveniência de um grau ótimo de exposição dos países periféricos aos fluxos de capitais internacionais, controlando riscos e proporcionando avanços econômicos, sobretudo contando com um gerenciamento prudencial da conta capital por parte das autoridades monetárias. / The present study seeks to investigate the dynamics of capital account liberalization in implementation in Brazil since the 1990’s, analyzing previous papers on international literature (chapter 2), associated with an empirical framework, based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) method (chapter 4). It’s used two independents index as proxies in order to evaluate the behavior of external sector of the economy (ICC, de jure, and IAF, de facto), and, hence, make the econometric inferences about such process. In general terms, the aim is to contribute by comprehending the relation between financial openness and macroeconomic performance in developing countries, in general, and specifically in Brazil. For such, the task identified the broadening of capital account convertibility in the period 1990-2005 (chapter 3), without verifying evidences on benefits such as economic growth or reduction of macroeconomic volatile, according to the econometric exercises – IAF, indeed, supports a strong relation between the increase of financial flows with a greater variability on exchange terms. The empirical findings are similar to those predominant on international literature, i.e., that it does not exist a positive and strong association between financial liberalization and economic growth. In fact, brazilian experience on financial liberalization, measured by the ICC and IAF, seems to be related to an increase on interest rates, and not on its reduction, as could be supposed, which confirm the hypothesis that integration of a developing country to international capital flows creates the necessity of higher interest rates to attract and maintain then in a country. We conclude for the convenience of an optimum exposition of periphery economies to international capital flows, through a prudent management of capital account by the monetary authorities, controlling associated risks while permitting economic advances.

Dimension à la question du financement du développement, qui se décline à travers une approche large du financement intégrant les principaux domaines d’action : mobilisation des ressources financières internes et autres apports de capitaux externes (investissements directs, aide publique au développement, allègement de la dette, envois des migrants) et enfin, révision du système monétaire et financier international. L’enjeu de cette thèse consiste à analyser cette approche du financement qui repose sur le concept de libéralisation financière. L’objectif est dans un premier temps de mettre en évidence le rôle de la finance dans le développement économique à travers l’étude des liens de causalité entre finance et développement économique. Ensuite, nous revisitons les politiques de libéralisation financière en mettant en avant l’étude de leur impact à travers l’analyse des ressources internes et externes pour le financement du développement en Afrique subsaharienne. L’analyse portera sur la mobilisation des ressources domestiques par le système fiscal et la mobilisation des ressources externes par la libéralisation du système financier domestique. Enfin, au regard de l’état de sous-développement financier combiné au sous-développement économique de ces pays, nous montrons la nécessité de recourir à une autre approche du financement qui se veut plus globale. Cette politique alternative passe par des politiques issues de l’hétérodoxie économique intégrant les éléments de l’institutionnalisme historique et de la théorie postkeynésienne. / Conference on Financing for Development in Monterrey in 2002 brings a new dimension to the issue of financing for development, which is available across a broad funding approach integrating key areas: mobilizing domestic financial resources and other inputs external capital (direct investment, official development assistance, debt relief, remittances from migrants) and finally, review the international monetary and financial system. The aim of this thesis is to analyze this funding approach based on the concept of financial liberalization. The aim is firstly to highlight the role of finance in economic development through the study of causality between finance and economic development. Next, we revisit the financial liberalization policies by emphasizing the study of their impact through the analysis of internal and external resources for financing development in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis will focus on mobilizing domestic resources through the tax system and the mobilization of external resources through the liberalization of the domestic financial system. Finally, under the condition of combined financial underdevelopment in the economic underdevelopment of these countries, we show the need for a different approach to financing that is more comprehensive. This alternative policy through political from economic heterodoxy integrating elements of historical institutionalism and post-Keynesian theory.

Ces deux dernières décennies ont été marquées par une montée spectaculaire des marchés boursiers des pays en développement. Cette augmentation de l’activité boursière a favorisé, selon certains auteurs, l’amélioration des performances économiques de quelques pays dits émergents. Cependant, les pays africains peinent encore à bénéficier des avantages liés à l’activité boursière, compte tenu de l’étroitesse,de la faible liquidité et de l’inefficience de leurs marchés boursiers. Les marchés boursiers de ces pays accusent un retard manifeste par rapport aux pays en développement des autres continents. Cette thèse examine les facteurs qui expliquent le niveau de développement des marchés boursiers des pays en développement en général, et des pays africains en particulier à partir d’un échantillon de 106 pays. L’analyse empirique est articulée autour des tests statistiques et économétriques. Les résultats montrent que le capital social mesuré par la confiance influence considérablement le développement des marchés boursiers dans les pays en développement. Cette confiance, puisqu’elle est très faible en Afrique, explique le retard des marchés boursiers africains par rapport aux marchés des pays en développement des autres continents. Par ailleurs, la faiblesse de la confiance en Afrique est due à l’hétérogénéité des populations caractérisées par une forte fragmentation ethnique, linguistique et religieuse. Les résultats montrent également que le développement des nouvelles technologies de l’information et de la communication influence positivement le développement des marchés boursiers à travers la réduction des coûts des transactions. Enfin, le développement des marchés boursiers africains est également compromis par leur ouverture précoce au reste du monde. En effet, l’ouverture financière affecte négativement l’activité boursière dans ces pays. Pour favoriser l’essor des bourses africaines, il est donc nécessaire de prendre un certain nombre de mesures. Il s’agit d’améliorer l’environnement institutionnel de manière à mieux protéger les propriétaires de capitaux afin de réduire l’effet de la faiblesse de la confiance ; de mettre en œuvre une politique qui favorise le brassage socioculturel entre les populations ; d’œuvrer pour augmenter le nombre d’entreprises cotées sur les marchés boursiers à travers l’ouverture au privé du capital des sociétés étatiques par le biais de la bourse ainsi que des mesures incitatives vis-à-vis des entreprises privées et enfin de promouvoir le développement des Nouvelles Technologies de l’Information et de la Communication. / The last two decades have seen a dramatic rise in stock markets in developing countries. This increase in marketactivity promoted, according to some authors, the improved economic performance of some so-called emergingcountries. However, African countries are still struggling to enjoy the benefits of market activity, given thenarrow, low liquidity and inefficiency of their stock markets. The stock markets of these countries clearlylagging behind compared to developing countries on other continents. This thesis examines the factors thatexplain the level of development of stock markets in developing countries in general and African countries inparticular from a sample of 106 countries. The empirical analysis is based around the statistical and econometrictests. The results show that social capital measured by the confidence greatly influences the development ofstock markets in developing countries. This confidence, since it is very low in Africa, explains the delay ofAfrican stock markets compared to markets in developing countries of other continents. Moreover, the lowconfidence in Africa is due to the heterogeneity of populations which are characterized by high ethnic, linguisticand religious fragmentation. The results also show that the development of new technologies of information andcommunication positively influences the development of stock markets by reducing transaction costs. Finally,the development of African stock markets is also compromised by their early opening to the world. Indeed,financial openness negatively affects market activity in these countries. To encourage the growth of Africanstock exchanges, it is necessary to take a number of measures. This is to improve the institutional environmentin order to better protect the owners of capital, this will reduce the effect of low confidence; to implement apolicy that promotes the socio-cultural mixing between populations; to work to increase the number of listedcompanies on the stock market through the opening to the private, the capital of state owned companies throughthe stock market and incentives vis- à-vis the private sector , and to promote development of New Technologiesof Information and Communication .

Tanzania is among the poorest countries in the world, with most of its population living in rural areas. Like most other developing countries, rural households' access to financial services is very limited. The government has adopted series of economic reform measures since mid-1980s that include financial liberalization. Liberalization of the financial sector facilitated participation of private financial institutions, restructuring of public financial institutions and privatization, elimination of interest rate controls, credit allocation and targeting. In addition, the role of the Bank of Tanzania in supervision and regulation of financial institutions was strengthened. Following the privatization of the financial sector, the number of financial service providers increased and diversified, which include commercial banks, development banks, insurance and social security funds, and capital markets. The role of the central bank was re-defined and strengthened in terms of price stability, supervision and regulation. Although there is an increase in financial sector service providers and products, rural households' access to financial services did not improve. To the contrary access to formal financial services is diminishing significantly, hence making poverty reduction initiatives more difficult. This study analyzed constraints to access to rural financial services, examined its impact on rural households' livelihoods, and recommended appropriate financial sector development strategies. The data for the study were collected from various sources - both primary and secondary. Primary data were collected from selected thirteen villages in Babati and government offices in the district through interviews, focus group discussions, questionnaire, and observation. Secondary information was gathered from documentary sources in the form of reports, records and review of literature. A combination of analytical tools was used - qualitative and quantitative. The study observed that history of rural finance in Tanzania is associated with colonialization of Tanganyika. The German colonial administration was the first to introduce establishment of modern commercial banking in the country in 1905 when the Deutsche Ostafrikanische bank opened a branch in Dar es Salaam. The British colonial administration, after the defeat of Germans in World War I, promoted establishment of commercial banks in Tanganyika in order to support commercialization of the economy. Consequently, German banks were replaced and commercial bank branches were established in other parts of the country. The independent government undertook massive re-organization of the financial sector and much attention was put on agricultural credit. Agricultural credit was organized through specialized agricultural credit organizations that corroborated with state owned commercial banks. However, the co-operative movement were assigned important role in credit administration on the ground as they are closer to the beneficiaries. The financial structure after independence up to the 1990s, when reforms were ushered in, is characterized by state owned financial institutions with pervasive interference. Credit was directed on the basis of the government priorities with little regard to credit worthiness analysis. The National Bank of Commerce (NBC) and Co-operative and Rural Development Bank (CRDB) were the dominant banks that implemented the government monetary policy. Emphasis was put on credit and savings mobilization was neglected. The CRDB operated mostly on managing donor funds meant for rural development. Liberalization of the financial sector was introduced through the Banking and Financial Institutions Act (BAFIA) of 1991 to address the weaknesses observed in the financial sector. It was envisaged to improve access to financial services through enhanced competition, increased and diversified financial products and providers, and improved integration of the financial system. However, assessment of the impact of the financial liberalization has mixed results. While there are distinct expansion in financial institutions, products and services; these are more concentrated in urban areas and accessed mostly by wealthy clients. Consequently, rural households' access to finance is diminishing. On the other hand, most financial institutions continue to employ traditional banking approaches - of insistence on collateral, preference for less risky category of clients, bias towards large loans, and bureaucratic procedures in providing loans. Besides, there are limited initiatives in product innovation, design of appropriate delivery mechanisms, and high interest rates spreads that discouraged potentials borrowers and depositors. As a result of poor access to financial services, most households have strengthened self-financing mechanisms through the informal arrangements. Although, the semi-formal - especially member based financial institutions and some Financial NGOs (FiNGOs) are attempting to correct the financial imbalances, their outreach, products and services are still limited. While there are improvement in supervision and regulation of the financial sector, it must be noted that prudential regulation and supervisions as part of the financial infrastructure if not carefully used, will undermine the efficiency of the financial market. The study concludes that rural households need a variety of financial products that include savings facilities, loans, insurance, leasing, and means of transfer payments. The degree of demand for these products is, however, determined by household's level of poverty, household size, level of education and skills, life cycle needs, and local market opportunities. However, financial sector reforms had little impact on households' livelihoods. Its implementation is associated with an increase in inequalities and poverty. Besides, there is a reduced funding as well as investment in agriculture, which forms the key sector of the economy. Consequently, the performance of the agricultural sector has been declining although its contribution to GDP is still significant. Assessing the supply and demand for rural financial services, it is concluded that rural areas are hardly served by banks hence limiting access to financial services. Prior to liberalization, government owned financial institutions provided limited financial services to rural areas organized through co-operatives and specialized credit agencies. CRDB was responsible for organization of credit for farm inputs, while NBC provided crop finance. In addition, CRDB also facilitated rural development programmes through donor funds. With the liberalization of the financial sector - co-operatives have collapsed, development banks are no longer active, and commercial banks have withdrawn from serving rural areas, thus creating a "supply gap" that is being replaced by informal finance. Furthermore, the study observed that demands for financial services is determined by age of the borrower, household size, and distance from a financial institution, the cost of borrowing that include loan transaction costs plus interest rate charged, bank procedures and conditions, policy and regulatory framework and institutional and infrastructural conditions. The study recommends the following: (i) Continued efforts for establishment of supportive macroeconomic and sectoral policies - financial, fiscal, monetary & rural development - and legal and regulatory framework that facilitates the growth of the rural financial markets, (ii) A facilitative intervention by the government in the development of the financial markets that addresses the national poverty reduction development objective through economic growth is required. The desired actions are those that focus on improvement in demand for financial services, reduced bureaucratic banking conditions, reduced transactions costs, improved infrastructure, and reduction of other structural bottlenecks limiting access to financial services, (iii) Development of appropriate financial institutions and products relevant for the rural sector requires government guidance through policy, development of appropriate financial infrastructure (legal, regulation and information), and incentive mechanisms. (iv) Intervention by the government in institutional and infrastructural development is required so as to facilitate the functioning of markets. There must be purposive investment strategy that supports development of the public infrastructure - such as transport and communication, electricity, security system, and research and development. Institutional development - judiciary machinery, credit bureaus, and property rights and business registry are required. Furthermore, training and capacity building so as to change peoples' mindsets concerning loans and savings mobilization, and (v) There is a need for building up a "New Role" for financial institutions. Financial institutions need to revisit their financial terms and conditions in favor of the development of RFMs, especially in terms of bank conditions, interest rate spreads, demand for collateral, and requirements for addressing the needs of the poor and rural population, Furthermore, financial institutions need to become more innovative in developing new products and services, improvement in organization of rural financial institutions, delivery mechanisms, and establishment of the institutional framework for integration of MFIs into the national financial system in the country. The following areas require further studies: (i) development of realistic rural development strategy that covers, among others, the development of the financial markets, (ii) institutionalization of the rural property ownership rights in order to establish how these can be used productively, through say mortgage, collateral, and/or sale for cash income, and (iii) Mechanisms for enforcement of loan repayments in rural areas - especially the lessons from informal operators. Experiences have shown that under informal credit arrangements, there are few default cases as opposed to formal commercial credit practices. / Development Studies / D. Litt. et Phil. (Development Studies)

台灣的金融體制從戰後國民政府接收建立之後，隨著政治與經濟的發展而開始逐漸自由化。雖然經過80年代末期的第一波金融自由化，一直到2000年政黨輪替後民進黨政府的第二波自由化與兩次金改，但事實上過去由政府完全抓牢的金融體系一直未改變政府影響力持續介入的現狀。國民黨的改革與民進黨的金融改革，都是在金融體制在面對因為經濟發展與政治變遷的結果所產生的新問題極需改善的壓力之下，政府一邊改革、一邊換一種新的方式去想辦法抓住金融利益的結果而已。金融改革在表面上是為了要解決所浮現的金融問題，但實際上卻是政府換個掌控方式去攫取金融利益的表現，而民進黨政府一連串金融改革所引發的爭議也是由於民進黨政府太過於想要藉改革之名來接收過去國民黨所享有的金融利益而引發。雖然經濟發展確實帶給金融體系必須配合經濟環境演進的改革壓力，但是政治上的鬆動對金融資源的引用才是決定金融改革方向的關鍵因素。國民黨的金融改革與民進黨的金融改革，都是在金融體制因為經濟發展的局勢不得不進一步改革的壓力下，政府一邊改革、一邊換一種新的方式去想辦法抓住金融利益的結果而已。金融改革在表面上是順應經濟發展與金融問題之所需的結果，但實際上卻是政府換個掌控方式去攫取金融利益的表現。 在本研究的發現與結果中，我們可以預見到，將來的金融改革不論執政黨是國民黨或是民進黨，改革的政策不論是偏向效率或是偏向公平，只要政府依然在金融改革的幕後扮演著掌握全局的角色，那麼台灣的金改永遠都將是持續引發爭議與弊端的。在這樣一個正式監督機制缺乏的情形下，唯有仰賴台灣的「民主政治」能夠進步成熟、茁壯發展，來對政府的改革作為提供強力的監督，讓政府在做出對的事情之後能夠得到肯定、做出錯的事情之後能夠得到懲罰，才是將未來台灣金改弊端減至最低的一個可行的方向。

過去三、四十年來世界各地發生金融危機的頻率較從前高出許多，探究原因後可以發現，與各國陸續開放金融自由化以及國際金融市場快速成長有極大的關係。除此之外，在各國中，金融危機的發生通常具備一些共同特徵，諸如危機發生時會導致資金外流、匯率大幅貶值、股市重挫、產出減少、進出口減少…等影響。因此，面對這一波次級房貸風暴，本研究也即將檢視美國在總體經濟數據上各方面的表現，希望能利用1970年以來已開發國家和開發中國家歷年來所發生的貨幣、銀行危機下所代表的各種總體經濟數據，經過轉化整理後，透過Logistic迴歸模型建立一個迴歸方程式，以了解金融危機的發生與實質匯率、進出口…等其他解釋變數之間的關聯，並利用此模型探測現階段次級房貸風暴對美國可能引發金融危機的機率值，以探討其合理性。 / We find that the frequencies of the financial crises are higher for the past forty years in the world. It is due to the financial liberalization and international financial markets which grow rapidly. Besides, financial crises usually company with some common characteristics such as capital outflow, the depreciation of the foreign exchange, the shock of the stock market, the decreasing of the production and so on. Therefore, in order to understand this financial crisis of the subprime mortgage, this thesis surveys the economic data of developed countries and developing countries from 1970s and figures out the performances of these countries under balance-of -payments crises or banking crisis. We use the logistic regression model and transform the data to construct a regression model. After understanding the relationship between the explaining variables, we use this model to predict the probability of possible financial crisis in U.S. under the subprime mortgage crisis and then discuss the rationality of those predicted values.

La libéralisation des taux d’intérêt est une étape importante de la tarification des produits financiers. Dans cette thèse, nous proposons un examen approfondi des progrès de ces réformes financières en Chine continentale et une évaluation de ses impacts éventuels. Sur le plan théorique d’un côté, la démarche analytique de cette recherche vise à combler des lacunes dans la recherche de ce domaine sur les pays émergents, comme la Chine, dans un contexte de la globalisation financière. Partant des fondements théoriques de la libéralisation des taux d’intérêt, nous mettons en relief les canaux de transmission par lesquels cette libéralisation permettra d’atteindre les objectifs de développement financier et de croissance macroéconomique du pays. Par la suite, nous proposons une analyse de l’état de lieux du système actuel des taux d’intérêt en Chine, à travers un bilan inventaire des pratiques réalisées dans le cadre de la libéralisation des taux d’intérêt. D’un autre côté, sur un plan pratique et empirique, notre recherche permet de mener une analyse approfondie du contenu et du déroulement des politiques de libéralisation des taux d’intérêt en Chine, de dresser un bilan des mutations du système financier et de formuler en fin de compte des recommandations de politique économique. Nous obtenons également une base de données concernant les changements du taux d’intérêt dans l’objectif de construire ainsi des modèles économétriques, notamment basés sur les équations de cointégration. Les résultats obtenus à l’issue de notre étude montrent qu’il existe une causalité réciproque entre les taux d’intérêt et les facteurs macroéconomiques dans un contexte chinois. / Interest rate liberalization is an important step in the processes of pricing financial products. As a necessary condition for financials reforms in China and its sustainable development, the realization of this process is of great practical importance that could optimize the allocation of financial resources, improve the efficiency of capital and enable better market functions. On this purpose, we propose a thorough review of this financial reform in Mainland China and an assessment of its potential impacts. On one side, the analytical approach aims at filling gaps in this research field on emerging countries, such as Chinese Mainland. Based on the theoretical foundations of financial liberalization, we highlight the channels through which this reform can achieve the global objectives of financial development and macroeconomic growth. Subsequently, we conduct an analysis of the current interest rates system in Mainland China, through an inventory of practices carried out as part of the interest rates liberalization reform. On the other hand, from a practical and empirical point of view, our research intends to offer a quantitative analysis of the potential impacts of interest rate liberalization on Chinese macro economical and financial system and to formulate accordingly recommendations for economic and monetary policies. We obtain a database, which contains the main factors of Chinese macro-economy, in order to establish econometric models, in particular based on cointegration equations. The results obtained from our study show that there is a reciprocal causality between interest rates and macroeconomic factors in the context of Chinese Mainland.

L'objectif de cette thèse est d'étudier le triptyque de la libéralisation, de la mondialisation et de la financiarisation du capitalisme moderne qui a engendré non seulement des conséquences pénibles pour les pays en développement et les économies émergentes au cours des années 1990, mais également une crise dévastatrice pour les économies développées au cours des années 2000 (i.e. des économies «aux systèmes financiers apparemment bien développés »). Dans cette optique, plusieurs corps de recherches théoriques et empiriques ont été identifiés, synthétisés et analysés afin de présenter un débat unique se concentrant sur la nature instable et factice du capitalisme néo-libéral, développé pendant les quatre dernières décennies. Cette thèse a des implications particulières pour la croissance économique et le développement, ainsi que pour la stabilité financière des pays en développement et des économies émergentes, qui ont également adopté ce capitalisme moderne. Par conséquent, cette thèse a été divisée en quatre chapitres. Le premier chapitre traite du lien entre finance et croissance. À cet égard, l'évolution des idées clés, les théories et les recherches empiriques sont présentées pour aboutir à l'analyse de la notion de répression financière, ainsi que ses implications dans les pays en développement et les économies émergentes. Le deuxième chapitre a analysé d'une part les propositions de libéralisation financière, avec un accent particulier sur le Consensus de Washington et la mondialisation financière, et d'autre part l'opposition à la libéralisation financière, en mettant cette fois l'accent sur la critique des structuralistes et des nouveaux institutionnalistes. Le troisième chapitre est, quant à lui, centré sur les implications de la série de crises et de l'instabilité dans la libéralisation et l'ouverture des marchés financiers des économies émergentes d'Asie et d'Amérique latine au cours des années 1990. Enfin, le dernier chapitre aborde l'incidence de la crise actuelle dans les pays développés pour explorer la fragilité des bases de la structure financière mondiale et ses implications dans le cadre de ce capitalisme financier néolibéral, qui exige une structure plus cohérente. / The objective of this thesis is to study the triptych of liberalization, globalization and financialization of modern capitalism which has not only came up with distressing consequences for developing and emerging economies during 1990s, but also devastating crisis for developed economies during 2000s - economies with ‘apparently' well-developed financial systems. In this aim, multi-pronged body of theoretical and empirical research has been identified, synthesized and analyzed to present a unique debate focusing on unstable and factitious nature of neo-liberal and finance-led capitalism, developed during last four decades. This dissertation has particular implications for economic growth and development as well as for financial stability in developing and emerging economies which also adopted this modern capitalism. In this aim, this thesis has been divided into four chapters. First chapter is dealing with the relationship between finance and growth. In this regard, evolution of key ideas, theories and empirical research is presented to reach at the concept of financial repression and its implications for developing and emerging economies. Second chapter has analyzed the propositions for financial liberalization with particular emphasis on Washington Consensus and financial globalization as well as the opposition against financial liberalization with particular emphasis on critique by new structuralists and Institutionalists. Third chapter is closely focused on the implications of series of crises and instability in liberalized and open financial markets of emerging economies of Asia and Latin America during late 1990s. Final chapter is using the incidence of current crisis in developed economies to explore the weak foundations of global financial structure and its implications for neoliberal form of finance-led capitalism which demands more consistent financial framework.