Cette thèse étudie le processus de transformation du système financier chinois dans un contexte de libéralisation financière. Son objectif est de questionner les possibilités d'établir un modèle de financement alternatif en faveur du développement économique des pays en développement. Cette recherche montre que l'expérience de la transition financière en Chine peut être considérée comme un cas de figure pertinent, traduisant la portée des approches de répression financière et les écueils des politiques de libéralisation financière. Elle s'attache à analyser le paradoxe de l'économie chinoise : une performance économique exceptionnelle s'accompagne de la fragilité de son système financier. L'objectif spécifique de ce travail est de discerner les spécificités de la transition financière chinoise afin de contribuer à une meilleure compréhension de la structure financière chinoise actuelle, de son efficacité pour le développement économique du pays et de l'impact de l'ouverture financière sur la stabilité de son système financier. / This thesis examines the transformation of China's financial system in the context of financial liberalization. Its aim is to question the possibility of establishing an alternative financing model for economic development in developing countries. This research shows that the experience of the financial transition in China can be seen as a relevant case, reflecting the range of approaches to financial repression and the pitfalls of financial liberalization policies. It seeks to analyze the paradox of the Chinese economy: an exceptional economic performance is accompanied by the fragility of the financial system. The specific objective of this work is to discern the specifics of the Chinese financial transition to contribute to a better understanding of China's current financial structure, its effectiveness in the economic development and the impact of financial openness for financial system stability.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Eliel Felix de Lima.pdf: 1438354 bytes, checksum: e8134cd965f6f20c6c018394074a3a7f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-04-24 / This Dissertation seeks to develop a discussion of foreign exchange in Brazil in the post - 2008 crisis period, drawing attention to the centrality of the exchange rate as an instrument for promoting economic growth and a lack of instruments available to the Brazilian central Bank to avoid both excessive appreciation in moments of high international liquidity cycle as overshooting exchange in times of flight to quality. It will be argued that the current international financial architecture that is characterized by deregulation and liberalization of markets, currencies are treated as highly liquid financial assets judged by the markets according to the criterion of risk and return. Therefore, the dynamics of the stocks of wealth and the logic of portfolio management of economic agents are critical for determining the exchange rate at the expense of economic fundamentals. While the exchange rate is not neutral, that is, have impacts on the performance of the real economy, its determination is predominantly financial / A presente dissertação busca desenvolver uma discussão sobre câmbio no Brasil no período pós-crise de 2008, chamando a atenção para a centralidade da taxa de câmbio como instrumento para a promoção do crescimento econômico e da insuficiência dos instrumentos à disposição banco central brasileiro para evitar tanto valorização excessiva nos momentos de alta no ciclo internacional de liquidez quanto overshooting cambial em momentos de fuga para a qualidade. Será discutido que na atual arquitetura financeira internacional que se caracteriza pela desregulamentação e liberalização dos mercados, as moedas são tratadas como ativos financeiros de alta liquidez julgados pelos mercados segundo o critério de risco e retorno. Diante disso, a dinâmica dos estoques de riqueza e a lógica da gestão de portfólios dos agentes econômicos são fundamentais para a determinação da taxa de câmbio em detrimento dos fundamentos econômicos. Ao mesmo tempo em que a taxa de câmbio é não neutra, isto é, tem impactos no desempenho da economia real, sua determinação é predominantemente financeira

Tanzania is among the poorest countries in the world, with most of its population living in rural areas. Like most other developing countries, rural households' access to financial services is very limited. The government has adopted series of economic reform measures since mid-1980s that include financial liberalization. Liberalization of the financial sector facilitated participation of private financial institutions, restructuring of public financial institutions and privatization, elimination of interest rate controls, credit allocation and targeting. In addition, the role of the Bank of Tanzania in supervision and regulation of financial institutions was strengthened. Following the privatization of the financial sector, the number of financial service providers increased and diversified, which include commercial banks, development banks, insurance and social security funds, and capital markets. The role of the central bank was re-defined and strengthened in terms of price stability, supervision and regulation. Although there is an increase in financial sector service providers and products, rural households' access to financial services did not improve. To the contrary access to formal financial services is diminishing significantly, hence making poverty reduction initiatives more difficult. This study analyzed constraints to access to rural financial services, examined its impact on rural households' livelihoods, and recommended appropriate financial sector development strategies. The data for the study were collected from various sources - both primary and secondary. Primary data were collected from selected thirteen villages in Babati and government offices in the district through interviews, focus group discussions, questionnaire, and observation. Secondary information was gathered from documentary sources in the form of reports, records and review of literature. A combination of analytical tools was used - qualitative and quantitative. The study observed that history of rural finance in Tanzania is associated with colonialization of Tanganyika. The German colonial administration was the first to introduce establishment of modern commercial banking in the country in 1905 when the Deutsche Ostafrikanische bank opened a branch in Dar es Salaam. The British colonial administration, after the defeat of Germans in World War I, promoted establishment of commercial banks in Tanganyika in order to support commercialization of the economy. Consequently, German banks were replaced and commercial bank branches were established in other parts of the country. The independent government undertook massive re-organization of the financial sector and much attention was put on agricultural credit. Agricultural credit was organized through specialized agricultural credit organizations that corroborated with state owned commercial banks. However, the co-operative movement were assigned important role in credit administration on the ground as they are closer to the beneficiaries. The financial structure after independence up to the 1990s, when reforms were ushered in, is characterized by state owned financial institutions with pervasive interference. Credit was directed on the basis of the government priorities with little regard to credit worthiness analysis. The National Bank of Commerce (NBC) and Co-operative and Rural Development Bank (CRDB) were the dominant banks that implemented the government monetary policy. Emphasis was put on credit and savings mobilization was neglected. The CRDB operated mostly on managing donor funds meant for rural development. Liberalization of the financial sector was introduced through the Banking and Financial Institutions Act (BAFIA) of 1991 to address the weaknesses observed in the financial sector. It was envisaged to improve access to financial services through enhanced competition, increased and diversified financial products and providers, and improved integration of the financial system. However, assessment of the impact of the financial liberalization has mixed results. While there are distinct expansion in financial institutions, products and services; these are more concentrated in urban areas and accessed mostly by wealthy clients. Consequently, rural households' access to finance is diminishing. On the other hand, most financial institutions continue to employ traditional banking approaches - of insistence on collateral, preference for less risky category of clients, bias towards large loans, and bureaucratic procedures in providing loans. Besides, there are limited initiatives in product innovation, design of appropriate delivery mechanisms, and high interest rates spreads that discouraged potentials borrowers and depositors. As a result of poor access to financial services, most households have strengthened self-financing mechanisms through the informal arrangements. Although, the semi-formal - especially member based financial institutions and some Financial NGOs (FiNGOs) are attempting to correct the financial imbalances, their outreach, products and services are still limited. While there are improvement in supervision and regulation of the financial sector, it must be noted that prudential regulation and supervisions as part of the financial infrastructure if not carefully used, will undermine the efficiency of the financial market. The study concludes that rural households need a variety of financial products that include savings facilities, loans, insurance, leasing, and means of transfer payments. The degree of demand for these products is, however, determined by household's level of poverty, household size, level of education and skills, life cycle needs, and local market opportunities. However, financial sector reforms had little impact on households' livelihoods. Its implementation is associated with an increase in inequalities and poverty. Besides, there is a reduced funding as well as investment in agriculture, which forms the key sector of the economy. Consequently, the performance of the agricultural sector has been declining although its contribution to GDP is still significant. Assessing the supply and demand for rural financial services, it is concluded that rural areas are hardly served by banks hence limiting access to financial services. Prior to liberalization, government owned financial institutions provided limited financial services to rural areas organized through co-operatives and specialized credit agencies. CRDB was responsible for organization of credit for farm inputs, while NBC provided crop finance. In addition, CRDB also facilitated rural development programmes through donor funds. With the liberalization of the financial sector - co-operatives have collapsed, development banks are no longer active, and commercial banks have withdrawn from serving rural areas, thus creating a "supply gap" that is being replaced by informal finance. Furthermore, the study observed that demands for financial services is determined by age of the borrower, household size, and distance from a financial institution, the cost of borrowing that include loan transaction costs plus interest rate charged, bank procedures and conditions, policy and regulatory framework and institutional and infrastructural conditions. The study recommends the following: (i) Continued efforts for establishment of supportive macroeconomic and sectoral policies - financial, fiscal, monetary & rural development - and legal and regulatory framework that facilitates the growth of the rural financial markets, (ii) A facilitative intervention by the government in the development of the financial markets that addresses the national poverty reduction development objective through economic growth is required. The desired actions are those that focus on improvement in demand for financial services, reduced bureaucratic banking conditions, reduced transactions costs, improved infrastructure, and reduction of other structural bottlenecks limiting access to financial services, (iii) Development of appropriate financial institutions and products relevant for the rural sector requires government guidance through policy, development of appropriate financial infrastructure (legal, regulation and information), and incentive mechanisms. (iv) Intervention by the government in institutional and infrastructural development is required so as to facilitate the functioning of markets. There must be purposive investment strategy that supports development of the public infrastructure - such as transport and communication, electricity, security system, and research and development. Institutional development - judiciary machinery, credit bureaus, and property rights and business registry are required. Furthermore, training and capacity building so as to change peoples' mindsets concerning loans and savings mobilization, and (v) There is a need for building up a "New Role" for financial institutions. Financial institutions need to revisit their financial terms and conditions in favor of the development of RFMs, especially in terms of bank conditions, interest rate spreads, demand for collateral, and requirements for addressing the needs of the poor and rural population, Furthermore, financial institutions need to become more innovative in developing new products and services, improvement in organization of rural financial institutions, delivery mechanisms, and establishment of the institutional framework for integration of MFIs into the national financial system in the country. The following areas require further studies: (i) development of realistic rural development strategy that covers, among others, the development of the financial markets, (ii) institutionalization of the rural property ownership rights in order to establish how these can be used productively, through say mortgage, collateral, and/or sale for cash income, and (iii) Mechanisms for enforcement of loan repayments in rural areas - especially the lessons from informal operators. Experiences have shown that under informal credit arrangements, there are few default cases as opposed to formal commercial credit practices. / Development Studies / D. Litt. et Phil. (Development Studies)

La thèse est partie d’un problème empirique : trouver une cohérence à la diversité et aux mutations des interventions de la Caisse des dépôts et consignations (CDC) dans le développement urbain. Elle étudie les activités urbaines de cette institution financière publique en plaçant justement la focale sur l’articulation de ses deux caractéristiques majeures. Tout en étant soumise à des injonctions politiques et à «l’intérêt général», la Caisse des dépôts doit assurer la rémunération des fonds dont elle assure la gestion, notamment ceux issus de l’épargne. L’enquête «suit» l’argent de la Caisse des dépôts depuis sa collecte jusqu’à son investissement dans le cadre urbain. L’étude porte notamment sur deux villes : Sarcelles et Nantes. La thèse révèle que l’évolution du rôle de l’État et de la CDC dans la circulation des financements dans l’économie a fortement marqué de son empreinte les formes urbaines. Elle montre combien la croissance urbaine d’après-guerre doit à la Caisse des dépôts. L’établissement oriente alors, sous le contrôle de l’État, une part importante de l’épargne vers le financement du développement urbain. La forme du grand ensemble doit beaucoup à ce modèle financier et aux filiales techniques de la CDC. La libéralisation financière des années 1980 se traduit par une réduction de l’emprise de la Caisse des dépôts sur l’épargne et sur le crédit au développement urbain, au profit du marché. Une série de dispositifs comptables impose progressivement une discipline de marché aux circuits financiers de la CDC et a tendance à confiner son rôle dans l’appui des politiques urbaines au crédit au logement social. / This dissertation aims at finding a coherence in the diversity of interventions and in the evolution of the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations (CDC) in urban development. It analyses the involvement of this public financial institution in urban development, by placing the focus on the articulation of its two major characteristics. While being subjected to political injunctions and to the "general interest", the CDC has to remunerate the capital it manages, especially household savings. The inquiry consists in "following" the money from the deposit to its investment in the urban setting. The study focuses in particular on two cities: Nantes and Sarcelles.This dissertation reveals how the changing role of the State and of the CDC in the financial system has left a significant mark on urban forms. It shows how much postwar urban growth owes to the CDC. At the time, this institution routed, under the control of the state, a large portion of savings into the financing of urban development. The shape of the housing projects (grands ensembles) owes much to the financial model and technical subsidiaries of the CDC. Financial liberalization in the 1980s then reduced the influence of the CDC on savings and on credits to urban development, in favor of the market. Reforms of accounting techniques and norms gradually imposed market discipline to the CDC’s financial circuits and tended to confine its role in support of urban policies to credits for social housing.

Cette thèse a pour objet d’analyser la performance des établissements bancaires jordaniens durant la crise mondiale amorcée en 2007-2008. Sous ce thème, nous abordons les questions de la réglementation du système bancaire, de l’asymétrie d'information et du risque de crédit. Une attention particulière est portée à l’analyse de la réglementation issue des différents accords de Bâle, qui a servi de modèle à la régulation du système bancaire jordanien. En effet, non seulement la philosophie de la réglementation bancaire a évolué depuis le premier accord en 1988, mais de plus il existe des interactions entre les dispositifs réglementaires et les problèmes liés à l’information et à la gestion du risque de crédit. A la suite de l'analyse de ces trois facteurs, nous nous tournons vers leur prise en compte dans l'évaluation de la performance bancaire. Nous concentrons notre étude sur la Jordanie, pays dans lequel la structure du marché bancaire a profondément été bouleversée ces dernières années par l’ouverture du marché aux investisseurs internationaux, par l’évolution des normes prudentielles et par les conséquences économiques de la crise financière internationale. Une estimation quantitative du risque de crédit et de la performance est menée, en ayant recours à des méthodes statistiques et économétriques. Les résultats montrent que la dégradation de la performance des banques jordaniennes à partir de 2008 n’est pas due principalement à la réglementation stricte imposée par la banque centrale, mais plutôt à l’autorégulation, caractérisée par un excès de prudence des banques dans leur offre de crédits, particulièrement après avoir connu une période de forte concurrence. / The aim of this thesis is to analyze the performance of Jordanian banks during the recent global crisis that started in 2007-2008. Under this theme, we approach the banking system regulatory issues, the information asymmetry and the credit risk. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the regulations stemming from various Basel agreements, which served as a model for the regulation of the Jordanian banking system. Indeed, not only the philosophy for banking regulation has evolved since the first agreement in 1988, but more interactions have emerged between regulatory systems with information and credit risk management related problems. Following the analysis of these three factors, we will study their role in the evaluation of the banking sector performance. We focus our study on Jordan, a country in which the structure of the banking market has been deeply disturbed in recent years by opening the market to international investors, by changing the prudential standards and the economic consequences of the global financial crisis. Our approach is to conduct a quantitative assessment of credit risk and performance, through the use of statistical and econometric methods. The results show that the degradation in the performance of Jordanian banks starting from 2008 is not mainly the result of the strict regulations implemented by the Central Bank of Jordan, but rather an auto-regulation characterized by the banks excessively cautious attitude to their credit supply, especially after a period of intense competition.

Notre étude a été inspirée par l’observation que malgré les efforts considérables en matière de la libéralisation financière au Malawi à partir de la fin des années 1980, les résultats apparents étaient plutôt médiocres, notamment en ce qui concerne la persistance de marges d’intermédiation (spreads) élevés. L’objectif central de notre travail est d’essayer d’élucider pourquoi. Notre hypothèse centrale est que si l’on ne tient pas compte du comportement des banques en matière de leurs réactions vis-à-vis de leurs incitations et leurs contraintes dans la mise en place de la politique de la libéralisation financière, on est voué à la déception en matière des résultats. L’étude montre que dans une situation économique caractérisée par une instabilité macroéconomique, les banques ont moins d’incitations à être plus efficientes du point de vue macroéconomique, c’est à dire en agissant dans la direction de l’approfondissement financier et de l’octroi de crédit au secteur privé. Bien au contraire, tout en agissant de manière rationnelle, elles sont tentées de rechercher des rentes faciles et sûres qui viennent du financement des déficits publics. Ceci leur permet d’accomplir deux objectifs : maximiser leur profit et minimiser leur risque-crédit, notamment en repoussant les « contraintes externes » imposées par les conditions économiques -notamment les taux d’escompte élevées- à leur clients à travers la combinaison d’une augmentation de taux d'intérêt sur les prêts et d’une faible augmentation des taux d'intérêt sur les dépôts. / This study was inspired by the observation that despite the considerable efforts in financialliberalization in Malawi from the late 1980s, the apparent results were mediocre, especially with regardto the persistence of high intermediation margins (spreads). The central objective of this study is to tryto investigate why. The key hypothesis is that if one does not take into account of bank behavior interms of how banks react vis-à-vis their incentives and constraints during the process of financialliberalization, the results are likely to be disappointing. The study shows that in an economic situationcharacterized by macroeconomic instability, banks have less incentive to be more efficient from amacroeconomic perspective, i.e., by enhancing financial deepening through higher credit to the privatesector. On the contrary, while acting rationally, they are tempted to look for easy and safe returnscoming from financing government deficits. This allows them to accomplish two objectives: maximizingprofit and minimizing credit risk, notably by pushing the "external constraints" imposed by economicconditions - including high rediscount rates- to their customers through a combination of an increasein interest rates on loans and a smaller increase in interest rates on deposits.Keywords: financial liberalization, bank behavior, intermediation margins, bank

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Adriano Vilela Sampaio.pdf: 791664 bytes, checksum: a1e2f8e1979518f22640b33ffdf362c3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-05-15 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The objective of this work is the study of the Brazilian economic policy autonomy in the context of increasing capital mobility and financial liberalization initiated on the 1990s. In order to accomplish our purpose, it is made a brief presentassesation of the evolution of the international financial system and of the debate between liberalization and capital controls on the theoretical and empirical literature with the purpose of comprehending how the functioning of the international financial system may restrict the economic policy autonomy and whether this restriction is desirable or not. The analysis of econometrical papers that tried to assess the impacts of the Brazilian financial liberalization showed that given the divergences of the results, it is not possible to corroborate the hypothesis that the financial liberalization generated the benefits proclaimed by its defenders. About the works that discussed the economic policy autonomy, the results didn t allow a definitive conclusion. It was made an econometrical exercise to assess the impacts of the financial integration, represented by capital flows, over the economic policy autonomy. The results suggest a loss on the economic policy autonomy in the period jan/1995 dec/1999 and that such loss didn t occur in the period jan/1999 dec/2007, although the capital flows had been relevants on explaining the interest rate / O objetivo deste trabalho é o estudo da autonomia da política econômica brasileira no contexto de crescente mobilidade de capitais e liberalização financeira iniciada a partir dos anos 90. Para tanto, faz-se uma breve apresentação da evolução do sistema financeiro internacional e do debate entre liberalização e controles de capitais na literatura teórica e empírica com o propósito de compreender de que forma o funcionamento do sistema financeiro internacional pode restringir a autonomia de política econômica dos países e se essa restrição é desejável ou não. A análise de trabalhos econométricos que trataram dos impactos da liberalização financeira brasileira mostrou que, dada a divergência dos resultados, não é possível corroborar a hipótese de que a liberalização financeira brasileira trouxe os benefícios apregoados por seus defensores. Em relação aos trabalhos que discutiram a autonomia de política econômica, os resultados não permitiram uma conclusão mais segura. Foi realizado um exercício econométrico para avaliar os impactos da integração financeira, representada pelos fluxos de capitais, sobre a autonomia de política econômica. Os resultados sugerem a perda de autonomia de política econômica no período jan/1995-dez/1998 e que não houve essa perda no período jan/1999-dez/2007 embora os fluxos de capitais tenham se mostrado relevantes na explicação da taxa de juros

En las últimas cuatro décadas, la economía afrontó diversas situaciones que han puesto a prueba la gestión de los entes reguladores, Gobiernos y especialistas en el sector financiero. La consigna ha sido estabilizar este sector con un enfoque favorable hacia el crecimiento económico sostenible. Las regulaciones que se aplicaron en los grandes mercados financieros como el de Estados Unidos, la Unión Europea, China y Taiwán; estuvieron regidas bajo los principios de Basilea III y leyes locales como el Dood Frank Act. Sin embargo, pese a plantear estos lineamientos, no se pudo evitar las diferentes crisis que han ido surgiendo. Debido a ello, esta investigación se plantea una revisión sistemática de las principales publicaciones realizadas en el periodo 2020-2014 que hayan abordado el estudio del comportamiento de las regulaciones financieras y su impacto en el desarrollo económico, así como su relación con los procesos de crisis. Para ello, se ha planteado como objetivos la revisión de cómo se asume la liberalización financiera en el marco normativo internacional, cómo se entiende en su relación con las crisis económicas ocurridas en el siglo XX. Luego, se evalúa cuáles son sus efectos sobre las fluctuaciones de ingresos, el crecimiento comercial y las políticas monetarias de diversas regiones económicas, como la asiática, europea y americana. El principal hallazgo que se cuenta es que la controversia sobre cuán positivo o negativo resulta regular el sistema financiero sigue abierta y se relaciona con su aplicabilidad de acuerdo a las características propias de cada mercado regional y de cada país. / In the last forty-year, economy has faced different situations that have tested the efficacy of regulation institutions, governments and financial specialists. The main objective of all these actors have been to stabilize this sector with a positive approach in order to get a stable economic growth. Regulations applied in large financial markets as the Northamerican, the European, Chinese or Taiwanese, were designed either by the principles of documents as Basilea III and domestic regulations as Dood Frank Act. Nevertheless, although these frameworks were implemented, it was not enough to avoid different crisis that rose in all this period. Because of this described void, this paper pretends a systematic investigation about the more relevant publications made between 2020 and 2014 focused in the study of financial regulation and its effect in economic growth. In order to get this objective, several bullet points were designed: understanding how financial liberation is assumed in the international framework and how this is connected with the evolving of economic crisis raised in the last middle of the XX Century. Then, this paper pretends to evaluate what effects financial liberation has on incomes fluctuations, the commercial growth and monetary policies of different economic areas, such as Asian, European and American. The most important idea of this study is to signalize the controversy about how positive or negative result financial regulation of the economic market is not solve and how its efficacy is related according specific features of each regional financial market and each country. / Trabajo de Suficiencia Profesional

本研究探討1970年代末以降，智利、南韓與巴西三個新興市場國家，為何在面臨國際經濟自由化的相同政策挑戰時，會產生不同的短期政策回應。這些政策回應的差異最後更造成三國長期金改路徑的分歧。為解釋此研究問題，本研究整合國際與國內分析層次，就國際政策環境與國內政策過程及其產出兩部份，觀察制度否決點與政策關鍵行動者的互動，在長時間下對三國金融自由化改革造成的影響。 首先，本文根據三國金改在「步伐、範圍與程度」上的差異，建構三種不同長期金改路徑，即：「震盪-全面型改革」（shock-comprehensive reform）、「漸進-部分型改革」（gradual-partial reform）與「延緩-有限型改革」（delayed-limited reform）。這三種長期金改路徑的分歧，主要來自三國短期金改類型（即大幅改革、緩慢改革、無改革與改革倒退）變遷的累積。 其次，經由對三國進行個案導向的比較與貫時研究後，本研究除釐清三國長期金改路徑的演變轉折，也發現三國短期金改類型的變動，主要受到不同時期（1）政策關鍵行動者裡反對勢力否決力量的強弱，與（2）執政聯盟的政策取向係屬國家干預或市場導向，兩項因素組合變化的影響。 智利的個案研究結果顯示，1970-2000年智利的「震盪-全面型」金改，主要奠基於Pinochet軍政府，在1975-1989年成功開啟的大幅改革。1990-2000年，民主協定政府接替執政後，這種務實的新自由主義改革路線，透過憲政制度對威權勢力的保護設計，使民主協定政府因反對勢力否決力量強大，只能選擇繼續延續「Pinochet式」的經濟政策。 南韓的個案研究反映出南韓的「漸進-部份型」金改，主要係源自1980-1997年，執政聯盟內代表大財閥利益的韓國工業聯盟，對全面金融自由化的反對。該因素不僅使執政聯盟長期在國家干預與市場導向立場上反覆拉鋸，更導致南韓短期金改類型持續在大幅改革與大幅倒退間擺盪。1997年，南韓經歷嚴重金融危機衝擊，為原本「進退拉鋸」式的長期金改路徑帶來關鍵轉折的契機。 由於舊執政聯盟的結構，因政黨輪替瓦解，並由金大中總統主導的市場改革派控制，同時反對勢力否決力量轉弱，金大中政府因此能順利推動1998-2000年南韓金融體系的結構改革，最終促成過去「漸進-部份型」的長期金改路徑，出現重大轉變。 巴西的個案研究凸顯巴西的「延緩-有限型」金改，係源於政策取向與反對勢力否決力量兩因素，長期未出現發生大幅改革的條件組合。1961-1979年，反對勢力的否決力量由強轉弱，為推動大幅改革提供良好契機，但執政聯盟的政策取向多數時期卻為國家干預。 1985年以後，市場導向的政策取向逐漸在執政聯盟裡取得主導地位，但反對勢力否決力量反而在恢復民主體制後轉強。巴西推動改革的兩項重要條件未能配合，使其長期金改路徑始終無法脫離改革緩慢與延宕的狀態。迄Cardoso民主政府執政後，新自由主義的改革路線在執政聯盟裡取得主導地位，再加上反對勢力的否決力量相對轉弱，才促成巴西出現少見的大幅改革現象。 / The dissertation mainly explains why these three emerging markets, Chile, South Korea and Brazil, while facing the same challenge from the international economic liberalization since the late 1970s, have different short-term policy responses. These differences ultimately create the divergence among these three countries on the long-term financial liberalization reform. This research integrates the domestic and international level of analysis by focusing on two parts, the international policy environment and the domestic policy process and outcome, to observe the interaction between the institutional veto points and the key actors in policymaking and its impact on the financial liberalization reforms among three countries over time. First, this research constructs three typologies of long-term financial liberalization paths by their different reform “pace”, “scope” and “depth”. They are “shock-comprehensive reform”, “gradual-partial reform”, and “delayed-limited reform.” The divergence of these three long-term financial reforms is mainly accumulated by the change of three countries’ short-term type of reform (large reform, gradual reform, non reform and reform reversal) over time. Second, this research clarifies the evolution of the long-term financial liberalization paths of three countries by conducting comparative and longitudinal case-studies. It argues that the change of short-term type of reform is mainly influenced by two causes, i.e. the veto power of opponents among key actors in policymaking (weak or strong) and policy orientations of the ruling coalition (market-oriented or state intervention). The case of Chile shows that the “shock-comprehensive reform paths” during 1970-2000 is mainly based on the successful large financial reform of Pinochet regime from 1975 to 1989. The pro-Pinochet authoritarians checked the change of pragmatic neoliberal reform with the constitutional veto powers after the democratic Concertación government in office and kept Pinochet-style economic policies intact in the end. In South Korea case, the “gradual-partial reform paths” was from the big conglomerates’ (chaebols) opposition to the complete financial liberalization during 1980-1997. It brought the tug of war of ruling coalition’s policy orientation between market-oriented and state intervention, hence contributed to the oscillation of short-term financial liberalization reform types between large reform and reform reversal in South Korea. In 1997, the Asian financial crisis hit the economy of South Korea severely, and brought the turning point of the change of “gradual-partial reform path” in the past. The structure of old ruling coalition was collapsed due to the regime change and the takeover of President Kim Dae-jung, the market reform faction. While the veto power of opposition party was getting weaker, Kim Dae-jung administration was able to boost the structural reform of financial system in South Korean during 1998-2000, and ultimately contributed to the major change of “gradual-partial reform path”. In Brazil, the absence of the combination of policy orientation and veto power of opponents among key actors in policymaking, which may cause the large reform, was the main reason of its “delayed-limited reform”. During 1961-1979, the weakening opponents’ veto power opened the window of opportunity for the large reform, but failed due to the state-intervention policies adopted by the successive ruling coalitions most of time. After the advent of democratic era in 1985, the market-oriented policy was dominant in various democratic ruling coalitions. However, the strengthening veto power of opponents after the recovery of democratic regime became the obstacle of the actualization of reform policy. The mismatch of two causes which may contribute to the happening of large reform was not changed until Cardoso government in office. The neoliberal policy orientation of President Cardoso’s ruling coalition and the weakening veto power of opponents contributed to the rare large reform in the path of delayed and limited financial liberalization in Brazil.

This dissertation concentrates on the interplay between politics and financial markets using various empirical tools applied on historical financial statistics. The first essay examines the effect of stock transaction taxation on trading activity and asset prices, specifically focusing on the case of early 20th century Sweden. The main finding is that the tax substantially reduced trading as well as the level of asset prices. In the second essay, modern ex post historical writing is contrasted with the ex ante views of contemporaries which are estimated from historical price data. The specific case study is the events around World War II related to the Nordic countries and Germany. The comparisons point out considerable differences between the assessments of historical events in the ex post and ex ante approaches. The third essay is an empirical study of price controls on asset price movements and how these controls affect asset returns. The study finds that the controls have large significant effects which even may influence estimates of the long-run equity premium. Altogether, this raises concerns about the use of century-long series of asset returns without correcting for the impact of institutional variation and market constraints. Finally, the fourth essay examines the growth effects of international financial liberalization and integration using a large country- industry sample from the 1980s. The main result is that industries highly dependent on external financing do not experience higher value added growth in countries with liberalized financial markets. Liberalization does, however, increase the growth rates of both output and firm creation among externally dependent industries. These results are consistent both with increased competition and increased outsourcing. / <p>Diss. (sammanfattning) Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2003</p>