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連續時間模型下退休基金最適策略之研究陳絳珠 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究針對退休基金管理的兩項重要議題:提撥政策與資產配置作最適規劃之探討。由於傳統退休基金的評價僅考慮單一期間的離散時間模型,不若多期規劃的效率性,因此,本研究考量連續時間下,利用控制理論觀點,將提撥金額與資產配置視為可調節的因子,以風險最小化為最適定義,提供基金多期管理的有效方法。
首先,為充分反映退休基金管理時所面臨的不確定因素,本研究假設資產價值服從幾何布朗運動,並且經由隨機微分方程式描述退休基金所累積資產與應計負債的動態隨機性質。其次,考量基金管理所面臨的提撥風險與清償風險,給定能夠量化這些風險的評估測度,藉以監督退休基金於管理期間的經營績效,並且利用Bellman方程式求出最適的基金提撥與資產配置策略。
最後以勞動基準法規範下的企業退休金計劃為實證對象,透過動態模擬估計模型中之參數,並且利用數值方法求出所需的函數值,將控制理論與情境模擬連結,藉以檢視現行固定給付退休基金之最適策略。由實證結果可知,透過本研究的方法的確可以有效管理基金同時符合財務清償能力的要求。利用動態規劃所得的最適策略與給定的風險評估函數相關,因此,基金決策者可以依據基金的特性給定適當的風險評估函數,依照不同的投資期限擬定合適的基金策略。 / This study explores two critical issues in pension fund management: funding policy and asset allocation. The traditional valuation of pension fund is restricted in one-period setting under discrete-time framework, and it is not efficient comparing to the continuous-time models. Therefore, in this study, control theory is employed to obtain the optimal strategy based on a specific plan dynamics. Employer's contributions and investment proportions are treated as the controllers in our model. Optimal solutions are obtained by minimizing the given risk performance in monitoring the multi-period fund management.
First, the stochastic differential equations are constructed to describe the dynamics of the funding levels and the accrued liabilities. Geometric Brownian motions are used to model the assets held by the fund manager. Secondly, a stochastic control model with given risk measurement is formulated in a continuous-time framework to investigate the optimal decisions. In our approach, the plan's normal costs and accrued liabilities are simulated through plausible scenarios while the optimal contribution and asset allocation are solved through Bellman equation.
At last, a specific pension scheme under the regulation of the Taiwan labor standards law is studied for numerical illustrations. A monitoring mechanism linking plausible scenarios and the closed-form solutions are employed to scrutinize the funding policy and asset allocation. The optimal strategies are estimated through dynamic programming under realistic workforce scenario. According to the result, it shows that the methodology in this study can assist the fund manager in obtaining the plan's financial soundness. Meanwhile, the optimal strategy can fully incorporate the given risk measurement. Hence, the policy maker can input certain managerial considerations into the performance measure to investigate the stability and solvency issues.
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Advance care planning conversations: the family perspectiveKruthaup, Alexandra L. 05 1900 (has links)
The course of endstage renal disease (ESRD) and receiving hemodialysis (HD) treatment is complex and filled with uncertainty. Part of this illness experience includes making end-of-life (EOL) care decisions. Many families are unprepared to make such decisions. Advance care planning (ACP) creates an excellent context for laying the groundwork for these emotionally charged conversations. Hemodialysis patients, their families and healthcare providers (HCPs) are in a unique position to begin the ACP process early in the illness trajectory, revisiting it when the patient’s health status, prognosis and treatment modality changes.
To date, little research has focused directly on how families experience ACP conversations in the context of ESRD or HD. The purpose of this study was to explore family members’ experiences of participating in a facilitated ACP conversation with the HD patient. This approach recognizes and privileges the family’s role in the illness trajectory of ESRD and validates that they too are HCPs’ clients.
Five families, consisting of the HD patient and one family member, who went through the ACP process were interviewed along with an ACP facilitator from the nephrology program. This focused ethnographic study applied the theoretical perspective of postmodernist critical theory to derive and analyze data from in-depth semi-structured interviews. Findings revealed a detailed description of the ACP process that included timing, readiness to acknowledge the potentiality of death, facing mortality, and finding meaning in the illness experience. As families started to deconstruct their experiences, they shared stories of communication breakdown, highlighting the complexities of their relationships with HCPs. Understanding the factors that potentially contribute to HD patients’, their families’ and the renal staff’s discomfort with death were analyzed.
The study findings provide important direction for HCPs about how families make ACP decisions, how they perceive the ACP process, and what they identify as their EOL care needs and wishes. Failure to implement ACP as part of an EOL care program means that death will continue to be denied and clients’ EOL care needs will remain un-addressed. In order for ACP to be effective on HD units, sustainable resources are essential for patients, their families and HCPs.
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Advance care planning conversations: the family perspectiveKruthaup, Alexandra L. 05 1900 (has links)
The course of endstage renal disease (ESRD) and receiving hemodialysis (HD) treatment is complex and filled with uncertainty. Part of this illness experience includes making end-of-life (EOL) care decisions. Many families are unprepared to make such decisions. Advance care planning (ACP) creates an excellent context for laying the groundwork for these emotionally charged conversations. Hemodialysis patients, their families and healthcare providers (HCPs) are in a unique position to begin the ACP process early in the illness trajectory, revisiting it when the patient’s health status, prognosis and treatment modality changes.
To date, little research has focused directly on how families experience ACP conversations in the context of ESRD or HD. The purpose of this study was to explore family members’ experiences of participating in a facilitated ACP conversation with the HD patient. This approach recognizes and privileges the family’s role in the illness trajectory of ESRD and validates that they too are HCPs’ clients.
Five families, consisting of the HD patient and one family member, who went through the ACP process were interviewed along with an ACP facilitator from the nephrology program. This focused ethnographic study applied the theoretical perspective of postmodernist critical theory to derive and analyze data from in-depth semi-structured interviews. Findings revealed a detailed description of the ACP process that included timing, readiness to acknowledge the potentiality of death, facing mortality, and finding meaning in the illness experience. As families started to deconstruct their experiences, they shared stories of communication breakdown, highlighting the complexities of their relationships with HCPs. Understanding the factors that potentially contribute to HD patients’, their families’ and the renal staff’s discomfort with death were analyzed.
The study findings provide important direction for HCPs about how families make ACP decisions, how they perceive the ACP process, and what they identify as their EOL care needs and wishes. Failure to implement ACP as part of an EOL care program means that death will continue to be denied and clients’ EOL care needs will remain un-addressed. In order for ACP to be effective on HD units, sustainable resources are essential for patients, their families and HCPs.
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Model-Based Optimization of Clinical Trial DesignsVong, Camille January 2014 (has links)
General attrition rates in drug development pipeline have been recognized as a necessity to shift gears towards new methodologies that allow earlier and correct decisions, and the optimal use of all information accrued throughout the process. The quantitative science of pharmacometrics using pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models was identified as one of the strategies core to this renaissance. Coupled with Optimal Design (OD), they constitute together an attractive toolkit to usher more rapidly and successfully new agents to marketing approval. The general aim of this thesis was to investigate how the use of novel pharmacometric methodologies can improve the design and analysis of clinical trials within drug development. The implementation of a Monte-Carlo Mapped power method permitted to rapidly generate multiple hypotheses and to adequately compute the corresponding sample size within 1% of the time usually necessary in more traditional model-based power assessment. Allowing statistical inference across all data available and the integration of mechanistic interpretation of the models, the performance of this new methodology in proof-of-concept and dose-finding trials highlighted the possibility to reduce drastically the number of healthy volunteers and patients exposed to experimental drugs. This thesis furthermore addressed the benefits of OD in planning trials with bio analytical limits and toxicity constraints, through the development of novel optimality criteria that foremost pinpoint information and safety aspects. The use of these methodologies showed better estimation properties and robustness for the ensuing data analysis and reduced the number of patients exposed to severe toxicity by 7-fold. Finally, predictive tools for maximum tolerated dose selection in Phase I oncology trials were explored for a combination therapy characterized by main dose-limiting hematological toxicity. In this example, Bayesian and model-based approaches provided the incentive to a paradigm change away from the traditional rule-based “3+3” design algorithm. Throughout this thesis several examples have shown the possibility of streamlining clinical trials with more model-based design and analysis supports. Ultimately, efficient use of the data can elevate the probability of a successful trial and increase paramount ethical conduct.
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美國、英國、澳洲國家檔案館檔案網路開放應用之比較研究葉俊宏 Unknown Date (has links)
檔案原是權力的象徵,從古至今,從東方至西方,只有少數人有權力得以使用檔案。而檔案由封閉走向開放,其重要的轉折點是在1794年,由於法國頒布世界第一部檔案法,規定檔案館應實行開放原則。此後,開放國家檔案館的檔案供民眾使用的觀念,也深深影響檔案館營運的方式。因此目前許多現代化的國家,常把檔案開放程度視為是民主化的重要指標。隨著網路通訊技術的發展,對於檔案開放亦產生極大的衝擊。
本研究採用「多重個案法」與「比較研究法」進行研究,首先瞭解美國、英國與澳洲三國國家檔案館檔案在網路上開放情況。並藉由比較研究法,瞭解三國之間的差異性,並且透過描述、解釋、併排、比較的過程,最後進行分析,將比較之結果做一結論,得出具體的建議。
根據研究發現,提出結論如下:一、檔案開放相關法規方面:(一)三國對於個人隱私權均相當注重,但美國則為政府資訊公開重於個人隱私權保護;(二)美、英兩國檔案相關法規針對網路開放檔案有特別之規範,美、英兩國檔案相關法規針對網路開放檔案有特別之規範,澳洲則為沿用原有檔案法規;二、線上參考服務方面:(一)線上參考服務多無專責部門,但仍有專責人員負責;(二)電子郵件、FAQ等非同步線上參考服務,為三國國家檔案館最普遍使用的形式;(三)三國國家檔案館均針對研究者提供特別線上參考服務;三、線上檢索工具方面為(一)三國國家檔案館提供多元化的線上檢索工具;(二)提供電子檔案及檔案內容影像檔已成為三國國家檔案館趨勢;(三)檢索系統的描述規則符合國際標準,有利於未來國際間檔案描述的資源分享與交流;四、線上檔案展覽方面:(一)線上展覽主題皆與館藏特色、社會文化相互結合;(二)線上展覽呈現方式較為傳統,缺乏創新;(三)線上展覽仍需與檔案館相關活動配合,以達最大的成效。
最後針對前述研究結果提出五項建議:一、明確規範檔案開放範圍,以作為我國檔案在網路上開放之依據;二、觀摩國外國家檔案館經驗,加強國內對線上參考服務的概念與認識,並積極推廣線上參考服務;三、建議國內檔案典藏單位,針對研究者提供特別線上參考服務;四、建議國內檔案典藏單位改善線上檢索系統,提供多元化線上檢索工具;五、針對我國檔案典藏單位之館藏特色及社會文化,積極推動線上展覽。
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Labor market search frictions in developing countries : evidence from the MENA region : Egypt and Jordan / Les modèles de recherche d'emploi dans les pays en voie de développementYassin, Shaimaa 04 December 2015 (has links)
Dans les pays en voie de développement, les politiques visent à augmenter les opportunités d'emploi afin d'élever les revenus et les niveaux de vie des populations. Parmi ces pays, les pays arabes de la région MENA ont récemment connu une vague de soulèvement populaire, faisant suite aux accroissements de la pauvreté, des inégalités et de l'exclusion, résultats des faibles performances du marché du travail. Comme l'analyse des flux est devenu l'outil de base de l'économie du travail moderne, cette thèse propose d'expliquer le fonctionnement de ces marchés du travail assez spécifiques, particulièrement ceux de l'Egypte et de la Jordanie, en utilisant la théorie de la recherche d'emploi. Elle se penche sur l'analyse des créations et destructions d'emploi ainsi que des mobilités entre emplois. Elle montre que ces marchés sont très rigides. L'impact de l'introduction des réformes structurelles, visant à flexibiliser l'emploi est ensuite discuté de manière empirique ainsi que théorique. Les résultats montrent que la baisse des coûts de licenciement en Egypte a augmenté significativement les destructions d'emploi, mais n'a eu aucun impact sur les créations. Cet échec partiel de la réforme est un paradoxe empirique, qui est interprété théoriquement par un effet d'éviction dû à l'augmentation du coût de la corruption ou/et à l'augmentation des salaires du secteur public. Une extension originale du modèle théorique de Mortensen-Pissarides est alors développée, permettant l'existence de trois secteurs, public, privé formel et privée informel. Ce cadre rend compte de la nature particulière des pays en voie de développement. Pour examiner la qualité des emplois et pour étudier les avancements dans l'échelle des salaires, une estimation structurelle du modèle de Burdett-Mortensen est ensuite proposée. Elle permet d'étudier et mesurer les frictions d'appariement sur les marchés du travail égyptien et jordanien. Les paramètres estimés sont extrêmement faibles, soulignant la forte rigidité de ces marchés. Le marché du travail jordanien s'avère, par contre, être plus flexible que l'égyptien. Compte tenu de la non-disponibilité de données de panels annuelles dans ces pays, il est montré que des données de panel rétrospectives peuvent être utilisées, pour étudier les transitions de court terme sur ces marchés du travail. Ces données de panel sont par contre soumises à un biais de mémoire. Une méthode originale de correction du biais de mémoire est donc proposée et développée. Elle vise à corriger les transitions à la fois à un niveau macro, en utilisant une méthode de moments simulés, ainsi qu'au niveau micro, en construisant des matrices de poids. / Policy prescriptions for poor developing countries struggle to expand employment opportunities toraise their income levels. Among these are the MENA Arab countries that have recently experiencedan unprecedented tide of popular uprisings following the rising poverty, inequality and exclusion, muchof which is related to the labor market. Since the flow approach to labor markets has become the basic toolbox to modern labor economics, this thesis has at its central insight explaining the functioning ofthose specific labor markets, particularly the Egyptian and Jordanian, using the search equilibrium theory. It looks at analyzing job accession, separations and mobility trends. Overall, evidence of highlevels of rigidity is revealed. The impact of introducing flexible employment protection regulations in these rigid markets is then discussed both empirically and theoretically. Findings show that lowering firing costs in Egypt increased significantly the job separations, but had no impact on job creations.This partial failure of the liberalization reform is interpreted theoretically by a crowding out effect due to increased corruption set up costs or increased public sector wages. A novel theoretical matching model a la Mortensen Pissarides is developped allowing for the existence of public, formal private and informal private sectors, reflecting the particular nature of developing countries. Workers’ movements up the job ladder is then explored through a structural estimation of the frictional parameters in a job search model a la Burdett Mortensen. These markets are found to have very high levels of search frictions especially among the young workers. Given the non-availability of panel data to study labor market flows, longitudinal retrospective panel datasets are extracted from the Egypt and Jordan Labor Market Panel Surveys. These panels are then compared to available contemporaneous crosssectional information, showing that they suffer from recall and design measurement erros. An original methodology is therefore proposed and developped to correct the biased labor market transitionsboth on the aggregate macro-level, using a Simulated Method of Moments (SMM), as well as on themicro-individual transaction level, using constructed micro-data weights.
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Espetáculos do Balé da Cidade de São Paulo (1963-2007): mapeando quarenta anos de arquivo / Performances of Balé da Cidade de São Paulo city (1968-2007): mapping forty years of archivePatrícia Dias De Rossi 06 May 2009 (has links)
Este trabalho apresenta um catálogo da produção coreográfica do Balé da Cidade de São Paulo, de 1968 até 2007, indicando quais fontes documentais podem ser encontradas no arquivo da companhia. Baseado na abordagem funcional para a classificação dos documentos, o catálogo, ainda que não exaustivo, oferece uma visão da instituição como um todo e indica quais atividades foram, ou não, documentadas no processo de encenação de espetáculos. Além de constituir um instrumento para a pesquisa, este trabalho oferece uma proposta de como preservar a memória coreográfica. / The archives of the Balé da Cidade de São Paulo offer a panoramic vision of its institutional life, since 1968 till 2007. In spite of the lacks we observe in several series of records, it is possible to describe them and elaborate a finding aid where the essential characteristics of the whole are indicated, under a functional approach. Besides its role as a guide to researchers, this work also intends to offer an example of how to preserve our choreographic memory.
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Single photon detection based devices and techniques for pulsed time-of-flight applicationsHallman, L. (Lauri) 08 December 2015 (has links)
Abstract
In this thesis, a new type of laser diode transmitter using enhanced gain-switching suitable for use with a single photon avalanche diode (SPAD) detector was developed and tested in the pulsed time-of-flight laser range finding (lidar) application.
Several laser diode versions were tested and the driving electronics were developed. The driving electronics improvements enabled a pulsing frequency of up to 1 MHz, while the maximum laser output power was about 5–40 W depending on the laser diode dimensions. The large output power is advantageous especially in conditions of strong photon noise emerging from ambient light outdoors. The length of the laser pulse matches the jitter of a typical SPAD detector providing several advantages. The new laser pulser structure enables a compact rangefinder for 50 m distance measurement outdoors in sunny conditions with sub-centimeter precision (σ-value) at a valid distance measurement rate of more than 10 kHz, for example.
Single photon range finding techniques were also shown to enable a char bed level measurement of a recovery boiler containing highly attenuating and dispersing flue gas. In addition, gated single photon detector techniques were shown to provide a rejection of fluorescent photons in a Raman spectroscope leading to a greatly improved signal-to-noise ratio.
Photonic effects were also studied in the case of a pulsed time-of-flight laser rangefinder utilizing a linear photodetector. It was shown that signal photon noise has an effect on the optimum detector configuration, and that pulse detection jitter can be minimized with an appropriate timing discriminator. / Tiivistelmä
Tässä työssä kehitettiin uudentyyppinen, tehostettua "gain-switchingiä" hyödyntävä laserdiodilähetin käytettäväksi yksittäisten fotonien avalanche-ilmaisimien (SPAD) kanssa, ja sitä testattiin pulssin lentoaikaan perustuvassa laseretäisyysmittaussovelluksessa.
Useita laserdiodiversioita testattiin ja ohjauselektroniikkaa kehitettiin. Ohjauselektroniikan parannukset mahdollistivat jopa 1 MHz pulssitustaajuuden, kun taas laserin maksimiteho oli noin 5–40 W riippuen laserdiodin dimensioista. Suuri lähtöteho on edullinen varsinkin vahvoissa taustafotoniolosuhteissa ulkona. Laserpulssin pituus vastaa tyypillisen SPAD-ilmaisimen jitteriä tarjoten useita etuja. Uusi laserpulssitinrakenne mahdollistaa esimerkiksi kompaktin etäisyysmittarin 50 m mittausetäisyydelle ulkona aurinkoisessa olosuhteessa mm–cm -mittaustarkkuudella (σ-arvo) yli 10 kHz mittaustahdilla.
Yksittäisten fotonien lentoaikamittaustekniikan osoitettiin myös mahdollistavan soodakattilan keon korkeuden mittauksen, jossa on voimakkaasti vaimentavaa ja dispersoivaa savukaasua. Lisäksi portitetun yksittäisten fotonien ilmaisutekniikan osoitettiin hylkäävän fluoresenssin synnyttämiä fotoneita Raman-spektroskoopissa, joka johtaa selvästi parempaan signaali-kohinasuhteeseen.
Fotoni-ilmiöitä tutkittiin myös lineaarista valoilmaisinta hyödyntävän pulssin kulkuaikamittaukseen perustuvan lasertutkan tapauksessa. Osoitettiin, että signaalin fotonikohina vaikuttaa optimaaliseen ilmaisinkonfiguraatioon, ja että pulssin ilmaisujitteri voidaan minimoida sopivalla ajoitusdiskriminaattorilla.
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Performance Comparison of AI Algorithms : Anytime Algorithms / Utförande Jämförelse av AI Algoritmer : Anytime AlgoritmerButt, Rehman January 2008 (has links)
Commercial computer gaming is a large growing industry that already has its major contributions in the entertainment industry of the world. One of the most important among different types of computer games are Real Time Strategy (RTS) based games. RTS games are considered being the major research subject for Artificial Intelligence (AI). But still the performance of AI in these games is poor by human standards due to some fundamental AI problems those require more research to be better solved for the RTS games. There also exist some AI algorithms those can help us solve these AI problems. Anytime- Algorithms (AA) are algorithms those can optimize their memory and time resources and are considered best for the RTS games. We believe that by making AI algorithms anytime we can optimize their behavior to better solve the AI problems. Although many anytime algorithms are available to solve various kinds of AI problems, but according to our research no such study is been done to compare the performances of different anytime algorithms for an AI problem in RTS games. This study will take care of that by building our own research platform specifically design for comparing performances of our selected anytime algorithms for an AI problem. / Address: NaN Mob. +46 - 737 - 40 19 17
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Performance Comparison of AI Algorithms : Anytime Algorithms / Utförande Jämförelse av AI Algoritmer : Anytime AlgoritmerButt, Rehman January 2008 (has links)
Commercial computer gaming is a large growing industry, that already has its major contributions in the entertainment industry of the world. One of the most important among different types of computer games are Real Time Strategy (RTS) based games. RTS games are considered being the major research subject for Artificial Intelligence (AI). But still the performance of AI in these games is poor by human standards because of some broad sets of problems. Some of these problems have been solved with the advent of an open real time research platform, named as ORTS. However there still exist some fundamental AI problems that require more research to be better solved for the RTS games. There also exist some AI algorithms that can help us solve these AI problems. Anytime- Algorithms (AA) are algorithms those can optimize their memory and time resources and are considered best for the RTS games. We believe that by making AI algorithms anytime we can optimize their behavior to better solve the AI problems for the RTS games. Although many anytime algorithms are available to solve various kinds of AI problems, but according to our research no such study is been done to compare the performances of different anytime algorithms for each AI problem in RTS games. This study will take care of that by building our own research platform specifically design for comparing performances of selected anytime algorithms for an AI problem
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