Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-14T12:47:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ArquivoTotalAnaPaula.pdf: 4539714 bytes, checksum: e81023113c80e20aab9cc31359a349d7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-08-27 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Traffic accidents represent, in Brazil, a serious economic and especially social, relevant for magnitude of the mortality and number of people suffering from sequelae arising, thus becoming a serious public health problem. This research aimed to develop a model to support decision making based on fuzzy logic, supported by analyzes spatial and spatio-temporal (Scan method) to categorize neighborhoods according to priority intervention for prevention and control of traffic accidents that produce victims. Secondary data were georeferenced and recorded by Mobile Emergency Care Service in João Pessoa, Paraíba, in the years 2010 and 2011. Throughout study period, João Pessoa was 10,070 traffic accidents with victims. Of this total, 17.8% had breath ethanol and 0.8% died at the scene. The majority of victims were male (74.5%), belonging to the age group 20-29 years (37.7%). The accidents occurred mainly on Sundays (19.2%), Saturdays (18.7%) and on Fridays (14.4%) as well as in the months of December (10%), October (9.8% ) and May (8.9%). Most of the vehicles involved was composed by motorcycles (68.1%) and cars (36.5%). The nature of accident, collision was more frequent (46.2%), followed by fall motorcycle (30.7%) and pedestrian injuries (11.1%). In analysis of the relative risk and spatial distribution of these events, it was found that neighborhoods with high relative risk and formed significant spatial clusters concentrated in the north, northwest and northeast of the municipality. We identified 15 clusters space-time, which concentrated mainly in the northern, northeastern and coastal strip of the municipality. It was observed that neighborhoods reported by Mobile Emergency Care Service were categorized as priority by model, Valentina and Mandacaru were categorized as with tendency to priority, and Mangabeira was categorized as non-priority. The proposed decision model showed good agreement when compared with Mobile Emergency Care Service, thus satisfying the identification and classification of neighborhoods as a priority, with tendency to priority, with tendency to non-priority and non-priority. The results may be of relevance to both Mobile Emergency Care Service as to other public officials linked to road traffic, traffic education and care for victims produced by road traffic in João Pessoa. / Os acidentes de trânsito representam, no Brasil, um grave problema econômico e principalmente social, relevante pela magnitude da mortalidade e do número de pessoas portadoras de sequelas decorrentes, tornando-se assim um grave problema de saúde pública. Este trabalho objetivou elaborar um modelo de apoio à tomada de decisão baseado em lógica fuzzy, apoiado pelas análises espacial e espaço-temporal (método Scan), para categorizar os bairros de acordo com o grau de prioridade de intervenção para a prevenção e combate dos acidentes de trânsito que produzam vítimas. Foram utilizados dados secundários georreferenciados e registrados pelo Serviço de Atendimento Móvel de Urgência na cidade de João Pessoa, Paraíba, nos anos 2010 e 2011. Ao longo do período de estudo, João Pessoa apresentou 10.070 ocorrências de AT com vítimas. Deste total, 17,8% apresentaram hálito etílico e 0,8% morreram no local do acidente. A maioria das vítimas foi do sexo masculino (74,5%), pertencente à faixa etária de 20 a 29 anos (37,7%). Os acidentes ocorreram principalmente aos domingos (19,2%), aos sábados (18,7%) e às sextas-feiras (14,4%), bem como nos meses de dezembro (10%), outubro (9,8%) e maio (8,9%). A maioria dos veículos envolvidos foi composta por motocicletas (68,1%) e carros (36,5%). Quanto à natureza do acidente, a colisão foi mais frequente (46,2%), seguida por queda de motocicleta (30,7%) e atropelamento (11,1%). Na análise do risco relativo e da distribuição espacial destes eventos, verificou-se que os bairros com alto risco relativo e que formaram conglomerados espaciais significativos concentraram-se nas regiões norte, noroeste e nordeste do município. Foram identificados 15 conglomerados espaço-temporais, que se concentraram principalmente nas regiões norte, nordeste e faixa litorânea do município. Observou-se que os bairros relatados pelo SAMU/JP foram categorizados pelo modelo como prioritários, Mandacaru e Valentina, os quais foram categorizados como com tendência a prioritários, e Mangabeira, categorizado como não prioritário. O modelo de decisão proposto apresentou boa concordância quando comparado com o SAMU/JP, sendo assim satisfatório na identificação e classificação dos bairros como prioritários, com tendência a prioritários, com tendência a não prioritários e não prioritários. Os resultados desta pesquisa podem ser de relevância tanto para o SAMU/JP quanto para outros órgãos gestores públicos ligados ao trânsito, educação para o trânsito e atendimento às vítimas produzidas pelo trânsito no município de João Pessoa-PB.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-14T12:47:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 5985376 bytes, checksum: cf77baf5e807e55caad0d6c10a8b173d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-20 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The research aimed to propose a model of decision making that can assist managers in health to take actions for tuberculosis control in João Pessoa. The study was quantitative, ecological, exploratory and cross-sectional, using secondary data from cases of tuberculosis and climate of João Pessoa during the period of 2000-2012. The spatial and spatio-temporal analysis was performed by creating maps of relative risk, spatial and space-time scan. The Spearman correlation was used to measure the degree of association between the incidence rate of tuberculosis and climate variables. The spatial and spatio-temporal analysis was performed by creating maps of relative risk, spatial and space-time scan. The Spearman correlation was used to measure the degree of association between the incidence rate of tuberculosis and climate variables. With the results obtained, a decision model based on fuzzy logic was developed. No trend or seasonality in incidence rates was observed. The spatial analysis detected spatial clusters of high risk in the northern region in almost all months, indicating the existence of a geographical barrier in the region. In spatio-temporal analysis, was detected 12 significant spatio-temporal clusters. With the correlation analysis, found that climatic variables did not exert influence on tuberculosis. The decision model based on fuzzy logic was able to classify accurately the degree of priority for tuberculosis in João Pessoa, supporting health managers to direct their actions to control tuberculosis according to the actual situation of the municipality, in addition the model was constructed to also be used for other places and time periods. / O trabalho teve como objetivo propor um modelo de tomada de decisão que auxilie os gestores de saúde nas ações relacionadas ao controle da Tuberculose no município de João Pessoa-PB. Trata-se de um estudo quantitativo, ecológico, exploratório e transversal, fazendo uso de dados secundários dos casos de Tuberculose e do clima do município de João Pessoa durante o período de 2000 a 2012. A análise espacial e espaço-temporal foi realizada mediante a criação de mapas de risco relativo, Scan espacial e espaço-temporal. A correlação de Spearman foi usada para medir o grau de associação entre a taxa de incidência de Tuberculose e as variáveis climáticas. Com os resultados obtidos, foi elaborado um modelo de decisão baseado em lógica fuzzy. Não foi observado tendência ou sazonalidade nas taxas de incidência. A análise espacial detectou conglomerados espaciais de alto risco na região norte em praticamente todos os meses, indicando a existência de uma barreira geográfica na região. Na análise espaço-temporal foram detectados 12 conglomerados significativos. Com a análise de correlação, verificou-se que as variáveis climáticas não exerciam influência sobre a Tuberculose em João Pessoa-PB. O modelo de decisão baseado em lógica fuzzy foi capaz de classificar os graus de prioridade para tuberculose no município de João Pessoa-PB. Espera-se que esses resultados auxiliem os gestores de saúde a direcionar suas ações para o controle da Tuberculose de acordo com a realidade encontrada no município, além disso, o modelo foi construído de forma a ser utilizado também, para outras localidades e períodos de tempo.

Orientador: Luiz Fernando Costa Nascimento / Coorientadora: Paloma Maria Silva Rocha Rizzol / Banca: José Alexandre Matelli / Banca: Ana Cristina Gobbo Cesar / Resumo: Atualmente, estudos sobre a qualidade do ar tem sido de extrema importância pois os poluentes existentes no ar causam efeitos diretos no sistema respiratório provocando custos sociais. Dada a importância de prever hospitalização por doenças respiratórias para que o gestor municipal possa preparar funcionalmente o serviço de saúde para possíveis admissões, esta dissertação teve como objetivo elaborar e validar um modelo linguístico fuzzy para previsão de hospitalização por doenças respiratórias. Foi construído um modelo fuzzy para predição de internações por pneumonias, bronquite, bronquiolite e asma (J12 a J18 e J45 da CID 10) segundo exposição ao PM2,5 e CO em residentes de Volta Redonda, RJ, em 2012. Foram construídos três modelos: dois com duas entradas (PM2,5 / TEMP e CO / TEMP) e um com três entradas (PM2,5 / CO / TEMP). Para o modelo com duas entradas havia três funções de pertinência para cada uma, para as concentrações do PM2,5 ou CO e temperatura, e uma saída com três funções de pertinência para internações, que foram obtidos do DATASUS. Para o modelo com três entradas, as funções de pertinência se mantiveram e a saída mudou para quatro funções de pertinência. Os modelos mostraram uma boa acurácia. Para o modelo com PM2,5 o resultado foi entre 90% e 76,5% para os lags 1, 2 e 3; para o modelo com CO o resultado foi entre 94,7% e 80,1% para os lags 1, 2 e 3; e para o modelo com PM2,5 e CO simultaneamente a acurácia ficou entre 91,4% e 80,1% (PM2,5) e 92,9% e 82,1% (CO) para os lags 1, 2 e 3, possibilitando assim sua aplicação por gestores de saúde / Abstract: Currently, studies on air quality has been of utmost importance because the pollutants in the air cause direct effects on the respiratory system causing social costs. Given the importance of providing hospitalization for respiratory diseases to the city manager can functionally prepare the health service for possible admissions, this work aimed to develop and validate a fuzzy linguistic model for prediction of hospitalization for respiratory diseases. A fuzzy model was built to predict hospitalizations for pneumonia, bronchitis, bronchiolitis and asthma (J12 to J18 and J45 of ICD 10) after exposure to PM2.5 and CO in Volta Redonda residents, RJ, in 2012. They were built three models: two with two Entries (PM2.5 / TEMP and CO / TEMP) and one with three inputs (PM 2.5 / CO / TEMP). For the model with two entrances there were three membership functions for each, for PM2.5 concentrations or CO and temperature, as well as, an outlet with three membership functions for admissions, which were obtained from DATASUS. For the model with three inputs, membership functions were maintained and the output changed to four membership functions. The models showed good accuracy. For the model with PM2.5 the result was between 90% and 76.5% for lags 1, 2 and 3; for model with CO the result was between 94.7% and 80.1%, for lags 1, 2 and 3; and the model with both CO and PM2.5 accuracy was between 91.4% and 80.1% (PM2.5) and 92.9% and 82.1% (CO) for lags 1, 2 and 3, allowing its application for health managers / Mestre

Orientador: Carlos Roberto Minussi / Resumo: Os resíduos sólidos são considerados um dos maiores problemas ambientais do mundo e, consequentemente o gerenciamento destes resíduos também se tornaram um problema. Entre eles estão os resíduos de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos (REEE). Dar um destino adequado ao REEE tornou-se essencial. A logística reversa, ou os canais reversos de distribuição, surgem como uma alternativa viável para isso. A redução da geração, o descarte correto desses resíduos e o reaproveitamento dos principais elementos recicláveis como insumo industrial devem ser prioridade de qualquer sistema de gerenciamento de resíduos seja público ou privado, para a preservação do meio ambiente e da saúde pública. Na presente pesquisa, o objetivo foi definir um modelo de rede reversa para REEE, buscando localizar as instalações de pontos de entrega voluntária (PEVs), o centro de triagem e o centro de tratamento, para que se alcance o menor custo de transporte. A metodologia desenvolvida ofereceu um modelo de localização com o suporte de um Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG), que permitiu a análise espacial dos dados, de um Processo de Análise Hierárquica (AHP) por meio do uso de conjunto de pesos para os critérios analisados e da comparação pareada, proporcionou grande flexibilidade no procedimento de agregação e da lógica fuzzy, considerada uma ferramenta eficiente para lidar com a incerteza e a subjetividade da rede reversa proposta. Estruturou-se a rede para um sistema logístico de coleta de REEE consideran... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Doutor

Hacking information systems is continuously on the increase. Social engineering attacks is performed by manipulating the weakest link in the security chain; people. Consequently, this type of attack has gained a higher rate of success than a technical attack. Based in Expert Systems, this study proposes a proactive and integrated Intelligent Social Engineering Security Model to mitigate the human risk and reduce the impact of social engineering attacks. Many computer users do not have enough security knowledge to be able to select a strong password for their authentication. The author has attempted to implement a novel quantitative approach to achieve strong passwords. A new fuzzy logic tool is being developed to evaluate password strength and measures the password strength based on dictionary attack, time crack and shoulder surfing attack (social engineering). A comparative study of existing tools used by major companies such as Microsoft, Google, CertainKey, Yahoo and Facebook are used to validate the proposed model and tool. A comprehensive literature survey and analytical study performed on phishing emails representing social engineering attacks that are directly related to financial fraud are presented and compared with other security threats. This research proposes a novel approach that successfully addresses social engineering attacks. Another intelligent tool is developed to discover phishing messages and provide educational feedback to the user focusing on the visible part of the incoming emails, considering the email’s source code and providing an in-line awareness security feedback.

abstract: Many expect renewable energy technologies to play a leading role in a sustainable energy supply system and to aid the shift away from an over-reliance on traditional hydrocarbon resources in the next few decades. This dissertation develops environmental, policy and social models to help understand various aspects of photovoltaic (PV) technologies. The first part of this dissertation advances the life cycle assessment (LCA) of PV systems by expanding the boundary of included processes using hybrid LCA and accounting for the technology-driven dynamics of environmental impacts. Hybrid LCA extends the traditional method combining bottom-up process-sum and top-down economic input-output (EIO) approaches. The embodied energy and carbon of multi-crystalline silicon photovoltaic systems are assessed using hybrid LCA. From 2001 to 2010, the embodied energy and carbon fell substantially, indicating that technological progress is realizing reductions in environmental impacts in addition to lower module price. A variety of policies support renewable energy adoption, and it is critical to make them function cooperatively. To reveal the interrelationships among these policies, the second part of this dissertation proposes three tiers of policy architecture. This study develops a model to determine the specific subsidies required to support a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) goal. The financial requirements are calculated (in two scenarios) and compared with predictable funds from public sources. A main result is that the expected investments to achieve the RPS goal far exceed the economic allocation for subsidy of distributed PV. Even with subsidies there are often challenges with social acceptance. The third part of this dissertation originally develops a fuzzy logic inference model to relate consumers' attitudes about the technology such as perceived cost, maintenance, and environmental concern to their adoption intention. Fuzzy logic inference model is a type of soft computing models. It has the advantage of dealing with imprecise and insufficient information and mimicking reasoning processes of human brains. This model is implemented in a case study of residential PV adoption using data through a survey of homeowners in Arizona. The output of this model is the purchasing probability of PV. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Sustainability 2010

Most search applications in use today employ a keyword based search mechanism, which do not have any deductive abilities and are therefore unable to understand human perceptions underlying any given search. This paper proposes a framework for a Fuzzy Expert System for question-answer support while searching within a specific domain. Development of such a framework requires computing theories which can understand and manipulate the knowledge inherent in natural language based documents. To this end, we can now employ the newly introduced theory of Computing with Words (CW). The recent introduction of CW, by Lofti Zadeh, signifies a break from the traditional computing model and promises to enable analysis of natural language based information. In order to provide a bridge between raw natural language text and CW, the use of Probabilistic Context Free Grammar (PCFG) is proposed. Together the two theories form the core of the proposed framework that allows search applications to be constructed with the capabilities of deduction and perception analysis using a natural language interface.

Submitted by Lara Oliveira (lara@ufersa.edu.br) on 2017-09-11T22:44:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 AllysonALF_DISSERT.pdf: 2286744 bytes, checksum: 6ff716a2c28bcb7db9ac2c2775cefd83 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vanessa Christiane (referencia@ufersa.edu.br) on 2017-10-27T13:04:28Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 AllysonALF_DISSERT.pdf: 2286744 bytes, checksum: 6ff716a2c28bcb7db9ac2c2775cefd83 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vanessa Christiane (referencia@ufersa.edu.br) on 2017-10-27T13:07:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 AllysonALF_DISSERT.pdf: 2286744 bytes, checksum: 6ff716a2c28bcb7db9ac2c2775cefd83 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-10-27T13:10:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AllysonALF_DISSERT.pdf: 2286744 bytes, checksum: 6ff716a2c28bcb7db9ac2c2775cefd83 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-25 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Along with the need to develop controllers for industrial processes, it arises the need to study advanced control techniques, such as fuzzy controllers, that can supply nonlinearities inherent in the systems. The implementation of these fuzzy controllers based on Hardware Description Language (HDL) has the advantage of high speed and fast reprogramming for use in another project, by changing only desired variables. The objective of this study is to develop a fuzzy controller implemented in VHDL (Very High Speed Integrated Circuit Hardware Description Language) for a tank level system and to evaluate its effectiveness, comparing it with a fuzzy controller developed in Matlab®. Its methodology is to develop a fuzzy system described in VHDL and divided into coding, inference and decoding for a Quanser cylindrical tank system and another system with a trapezoidal format tank. The results of this proposal were satisfactory given the limitations presented by the system / Com a necessidade de desenvolver controladores para processos industriais, surge a necessidade de estudar técnicas de controle avançado, como por exemplo, controladores fuzzy, que possam suprir não linearidades inerentes nos sistemas. A implementação destes controladores fuzzy baseados em Linguagem de Descrição de Hardware (HDL) tem como vantagem a alta velocidade e a reprogramação rápida para utilização em outro projeto, alterando apenas variáveis desejadas. O objetivo do trabalho é desenvolver um controlador fuzzy implementado em VHDL (Very High Speed Integrated Circuit Hardware Description Language) para um sistema de nível de tanques e avaliar sua eficácia, comparando-o com um controlador fuzzy desenvolvido em Matlab®. Sua metodologia consiste em desenvolver um sistema fuzzy descrito em VHDL e divididos em codificação, inferência e decodificação para um sistema de tanque cilíndrico da Quanser e outro sistema com tanque de formato trapezoidal. Os resultados desta proposta se mostraram satisfatórios diante de limitações apresentadas pelo sistema / 2017-09-11

This thesis reviews Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and its relation with the Total Quality Management philosophy. In particular the thesis focuses on the inherent drawbacks of QFD and it investigates potential techniques and methods that could be integrated with QFD to overcome some of its problems. Fuzzy Logic/Fuzzy Sets and the Taguchi Method are identified as techniques and methods to be incorporated within the QFD process to provide a more consistent, quantitative and rigorous method to analyse subjective data in the QFD charts. Two approaches are developed that integrate Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Set theory with QFD to identify and rectify inconsistencies in the input data in the QFD charts. Another approach that integrates the Taguchi Method and QFD is further developed to set more precise technical target values in the QFD chart. Case studies are used to illustrate the results of the developed Fuzzy-QFD and the QFD-Taguchi approaches. The synergistic approaches take into account nteractions between requirements, which are not utilised in the traditional QFD charts. In addition, it was found that the resulting data in the QFD charts are sensitive to the interaction in the correlation matrices, therefore another method is also proposed to detect inconsistencies in the correlation matrices by utilising an inference mechanism and multi-valued logic theory. An integrated systems approach to QFD is eventually developed that forms a synergy between QFD, Fuzzy Logic/Fuzzy sets and the Taguchi Method. This results in a superior approach that combines the inherent benefits of each of the individual approaches. The integrated systems approach to QFD is a generic approach that can be used for other case studies provided that in addition to the relationship matrix and customer importance ratings, the correlation matrices and benchmarking data are readily available. As a result of this research, the subjectivity and ill-defined data in the QFD process have been partially resolved by the application of Fuzzy Logic/Fuzzy sets. The QFD analysis has been made more rigorous by integrating it to more quantitative techniques (Fuzzy Logic/Fuzzy sets) and method (Taguchi Method). It has been identified that demands are dependent on each other in the QFD charts and how including these dependencies in the problem can change the results. This problem has been addressed by considering interactions between the demands in the Fuzzy-QFD and QFD-Taguchi approaches developed. These interactions between demands have been identified and dealt with in the developed approaches, such that they no longer provide sub-optimal solutions.

The design of automatic systems for steering a ship presents difficult challenges because of their dynamic properties which vary considerably within the range of sailing conditions. Automatic steering of ships has its origin at the beginning of the century and was prompted by the introduction of the gyrocompass. Until the earlier 70s almost all autopilots for a ship were based on the proportional-derivative-integral (PID) controller. The main disadvantage with PID controllers is that the optimal parameters setting can be achieved only for a particular sailing condition. This shortcoming was and is still dealt with in the framework of adaptive theory where the controller parameters are adjusted in the attempt to seek the optimum of a pre-set performance function. Despite such a potential advantage, at present adaptive control theory is limited to linear plants and requires a certain amount of a-priori information for a successful application. This thesis is concerned with the applicability of intelligent control techniques to the problem of designing course-keeping and course-changing autopilots for ships. For this reason the framework of intelligent control theory is introduced and a pragmatic definition of intelligent controllers is stated. The learning and adaptive features of neural networks and fuzzy logic systems are exploited and used to solve advantageously the control design problem. Adaptive networks are used as a unifying structure where different kinds of neural networks and fuzzy logic paradigms can be described. In this framework, comparisons between neural networks and fuzzy logic systems are made and results from one field can be easily extended to the other. Although the use of such systems for the design of autopilots is in its early stage, the majority of the contributions which have appeared in literature have focused on the use of feedforward networks trained with the back-propagation algorithm. The main contributions of this thesis are the critical analysis of the feedforward network controller trained with the back-propagation algorithm, the proposition of an alternative controller architecture based on the use of radial basis function networks and to give conditions under which the stability analysis of the intelligent controllers so designed can be evaluated.