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Ce travail a pour but de développer des outils statistiques pour l'étude du déclin cognitif général ou précédant le diagnostic de démence, à partir de données de cohorte en tenant compte du risque compétitif de décès et de la censure par intervalle. Le temps de démence est censuré par intervalle dans les études de cohortes car le diagnostic de démence ne peut être établi qu'à l'occasion des visites qui peuvent être espacées de plusieurs années. Ceci induit une sous-estimation du risque de démence à cause du risque compétitif de décès : les sujets déments sont à fort risque de mourir, et peuvent donc décéder avant la visite de diagnostic. Dans la première partie, nous proposons un modèle conjoint à classes latentes pour données longitudinales corrélées à un événement censuré par intervalle, en compétition avec le décès. Appliqué à la cohorte Paquid, ce modèle permet d'identifier des profils de déclin cognitif associés à des risques différents de démence et de décès. En utilisant cette méthodologie, nous comparons ensuite des modèles pronostiques dynamiques pour la démence, traitant la censure par intervalle, basés sur des mesures répétées de marqueurs cognitifs. Dans la seconde partie, nous conduisons une étude comparative afin de clarifier l'interprétation des estimateurs du maximum de vraisemblance des modèles mixtes et conjoints et estimateurs par équations d'estimation généralisées (GEE), couramment utilisés dans le contexte de données longitudinales incomplètes et tronquées par le décès. Les estimateurs de maximum de vraisemblance ciblent le changement individuel chez les individus vivants. Les estimateurs GEE avec matrice de corrélation de travail indépendante, pondérés par l'inverse de la probabilité d'être observé sachant que le sujet est vivant, ciblent la trajectoire moyennée sur la population des survivants à chaque âge. Ces résultats justifient l'utilisation des modèles conjoints dans l'étude de la démence, qui sont des outils prometteurs pour mieux comprendre l'histoire naturelle de la maladie / The purpose of this work is to develop statistical tools to study the general or the prediagnosis cognitive decline, while accounting for the selection by death and interval censoring. In cohort studies, the time-to-dementia-onset is interval-censored as the dementia status is assessed intermittently. This issue can lead to an under-estimation of the risk of dementia, due to the competing risk of death: subjects with dementia are at high risk to die and can thus die prior to the diagnosis visit. First, we propose a joint latent class illness-death model for longitudinal data correlated to an interval-censored time-to-event, competing with the time-to-death. This model is applied on the Paquid cohort to identify profiles of pre-dementia cognitive declines associated with different risks of dementia and death. Using this methodology, we compare dynamic prognostic models for dementia based on repeated measures of cognitive markers, accounting for interval censoring. Secondly, we conduct a simulation study to clarify the interpretation of maximum likelihood estimators of joint and mixed models as well as GEE estimators, frequently used to handle incomplete longitudinal data truncated by death. Maximum likelihood estimators target the individual change among the subjects currently alive. GEE estimators with independent working correlation matrix, weighted by the inverse probability to be observed given that the subject is alive, target the population-averaged change among the dynamic population of survivors. These results justify the use of joint models in dementia studies, which are promising statistical tools to better understand the natural history of dementia

Contexte et objectifs : Les services de santé sexuelle et reproductive des adolescents (SSRA) ont fait l’objet de peu d’études au Niger. Cette thèse avait pour objectif d’analyser les relations entre les capacités des organisations, la mobilisation et l’utilisation des ressources en SSRA. La thèse propose tout d’abord une description rétrospective des interventions en SSRA et une analyse de l’offre des services de SSRA et du profil des acteurs impliqués dans la conception et la mise en œuvre des interventions en SSRA pour comprendre le contexte de l’étude. Méthodologie : Une revue documentaire narrative et des entrevues individuelles ont été réalisées pour examiner l’historique des interventions en matière de SSRA mises en œuvre au Niger depuis 1975 jusqu’en 2021. De même, cela nous a permis d’identifier les acteurs impliqués et leur rôle dans le processus de mise en œuvre de ces interventions (article 1). Des données secondaires ont été utilisées à travers un modèle Generalized estimating equation (GEE) et une approche comparative entre trois pays : Burkina Faso, Ghana et Niger pour analyser le profil des structures de santé, l’offre du panier de services planification familiale (PF) aux adolescents non mariés et les déterminants de cette offre (article 2). Des données primaires ont été collectées auprès de 250 organisations ayant mis en œuvre des interventions en SSRA sur la période de 2017 à 2021 au Niger. Ces données ont été utilisées pour analyser la relation entre les capacités organisationnelles et la mobilisation des ressources (article 3) en utilisant un modèle de régression logistique multinomiale ordonnée. De même, ces données ont été utilisées pour analyser la relation entre les capacités organisationnelles et l’utilisation effective et efficiente des ressources mobilisées. Un modèle Logit binaire a été estimé pour examiner la relation entre les capacités organisationnelles et l’utilisation effective des ressources mobilisées (article 4). Enfin, un modèle de frontière stochastique et un modèle de Tobit ont été utilisés pour déterminer les scores d’efficience technique et analyser la relation entre les niveaux des capacités des structures de santé et leurs scores d’efficience technique dans l’utilisation des ressources pour offrir les produits et services de SSR aux adolescents (article 5). Résultats : Les résultats de cette thèse font ressortir dans un premier temps un éventail d’interventions en SSRA mises en œuvre et d’acteurs avec des profils variés qui sont impliqués dans le processus d’élaboration et la mise en œuvre de ces interventions au Niger. Les décennies 2000 et 2010 ont constitué les périodes où la plupart des interventions ont été mises en œuvre pour améliorer la SSRA. L’État demeure l’acteur principal, mais il est accompagné techniquement et financièrement par d’autres acteurs. Parmi ces derniers, il y a les bailleurs de fonds constitués par des institutions des Nations unies comme le Fonds des Nations Unies pour la population (UNFPA), l’Organisation mondiale de la santé (OMS) et la Banque Mondiale, des gouvernements des pays amis du Niger, des fondations et des institutions de recherche. L’État reste la deuxième source de financement. Toutefois, bien que beaucoup d’efforts aient été consentis pour améliorer l’accès aux services de SSRA, des adolescents non mariés éprouvent des difficultés d’accès, car beaucoup de structures de santé n’offrent pas ces services à cette population. Au Niger, seuls 29% des structures de santé ont déclaré offrir le panier de services de PF aux adolescents non mariés en 2017 contre 70% et 60% respectivement au Burkina Faso et au Ghana. Plusieurs facteurs expliquent cette offre. Parmi ces derniers, il y a le genre du premier responsable dont les résultats montrent que les structures de santé dirigées par les femmes ont plus de chance d’offrir le panier de services PF aux adolescents non mariés que celles dirigées par un homme. De plus, l’analyse de profil effectuée sur ces structures montre une hétérogénéité. Au Ghana, par exemple, on trouve un profil plus diversifié composé des centres de santé, des hôpitaux et polycliniques et des « Community-based Health Planning and Services » (CHPS) tandis qu’au Burkina Faso et au Niger, ce sont plutôt des structures de santé du premier niveau. Le secteur privé est aussi assez présent alors qu’il ne l’est qu’à une proportion très marginale (moins de 1%) au Burkina Faso et au Niger. Par ailleurs, les résultats indiquent une relation positive entre les niveaux des capacités des organisations et leur niveau de mobilisation des ressources financières. Autrement dit, plus les organisations améliorent leur niveau des capacités, plus leur niveau de mobilisation des ressources financières est important. Toutefois, la relation diffère d’une dimension des capacités organisationnelles par rapport à une autre. Elle est plus importante pour les capacités managériale et opérationnelle et moins prononcée pour les capacités en leadership et adaptative. Il se dégage également une relation positive entre le niveau des capacités organisationnelles et l’utilisation effective des ressources financières mobilisées pour offrir des services de SSR aux adolescents ou pour réaliser des activités en SSRA. Par exemple, lorsqu’une organisation augmente son niveau de capacités organisationnelles augmente d’une unité, sa probabilité d’utiliser effectivement les ressources financières mobilisées augmente de 1,7%. Il apparait aussi que les structures de santé qui offrent les services de santé sexuelle et reproductive aux adolescents ont en moyenne un score d’efficience technique de 58%. Ce score est plus important chez les structures de santé dirigées par les femmes que celles dirigées par les hommes. De même, les structures de santé qui améliorent simultanément le niveau de leurs capacités : managériale, opérationnelle, adaptative et en leadership ont un score d’efficience technique plus important que celles qui ne l’ont pas fait. Toutefois, la relation entre ces capacités diffère d’une dimension à une autre. Contribution : Les résultats de cette thèse améliorent les connaissances sur l’analyse des interventions en SSRA dans les pays en développement. Ils constituent aussi un ensemble de données probantes sur lesquelles les acteurs impliqués dans la problématique de la SSRA peuvent s’appuyer pour mieux concevoir et mettre en œuvre les interventions en SSRA, capables de rendre les services de SSRA disponibles, accessibles et utilisables. / Background and objectives: Adolescent sexual and reproductive health (ASRH) services have been little studied in Niger. The aim of this thesis was to analyze the relationship between organizational capacity and the mobilization and use of ASRH resources. The thesis begins with a retrospective description of ASRH interventions and an analysis of ASRH service provision and the profile of actors involved in the design and implementation of ASRH interventions to understand the context of the study. Methodology: A narrative literature review and individual interviews were conducted to examine the history of ASRH interventions implemented in Niger from 1975 to 2021. This also enabled us to identify the actors involved and their role in the process of implementing these interventions (article 1). Secondary data were used through a generalized estimating equation (GEE) model and a comparative approach between three countries: Burkina Faso, Ghana and Niger to analyze the profile of health facilities, the supply of the family planning (FP) basket of services to unmarried adolescents and the determinants of this supply (article 2). Primary data were collected from 250 organizations that had implemented ASRH interventions between 2017 and 2021 in Niger. These data were used to analyze the relationship between organizational capacity and resource mobilization (article 3) using an ordered multinomial logistic regression model. Similarly, these data were used to analyze the relationship between organizational capacity and the effective and efficient use of mobilized resources. A binary Logit model was estimated to examine the relationship between organizational capabilities and the effective use of mobilized resources (article 4). Finally, a stochastic frontier model and a Tobit model were used to determine technical efficiency scores and to analyze the relationship between health facility capacity levels and their technical efficiency scores in the use of resources to provide SRH products and services to adolescents (article 5). Findings: The results of this thesis first highlight a range of ASRH interventions that have been implemented and actors with varied profiles who are involved in the process of developing and implementing these interventions in Niger. The decades 2000 and 2010 were the periods when most interventions were implemented to improve ASRH. The state remains the main actor, but it is supported technically and financially by other actors. These include donors such as United Nations agencies like the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the World Bank, governments of countries friendly to Niger, foundations and research institutions. The State remains the second largest source of funding. However, although a great deal of effort has been made to improve access to ASRH services, unmarried adolescents still have difficulty gaining access, as many health facilities do not offer these services to this population. In Niger, only 29% of health facilities reported offering the FP basket of services to unmarried adolescents in 2017, compared with 70% and 60% respectively in Burkina Faso and Ghana. Several factors explain this offer. One of these is the gender of the primary caregiver, the results of which show that female-headed health facilities are more likely to offer the FP basket of services to unmarried adolescents than those headed by a man. In addition, the profile analysis carried out on these facilities shows heterogeneity. In Ghana, for example, we find a more diversified profile made up of health centres, hospitals and polyclinics, and Community-based Health Planning and Services (CHPS), whereas in Burkina Faso and Niger, it is more likely to be first-level health facilities. The private sector is also well represented, whereas in Burkina Faso and Niger it is very marginal (less than 1%). Furthermore, the results indicate a positive relationship between the capacity levels of the organizations and their level of mobilization of financial resources. In other words, the more organizations improve their level of capacity, the greater their level of mobilization of financial resources. However, the relationship differs from one dimension of organizational capabilities to another. It is stronger for managerial and operational capabilities and less pronounced for leadership and adaptive capabilities. There is also a positive relationship between the level of organizational capacity and the effective use of financial resources mobilized to provide SRH services to adolescents or to carry out ASRH activities. For example, when an organization increases its level of organizational capacity by one unit, its probability of using the financial resources mobilized increases by 1.7%. It also appears that health facilities offering sexual and reproductive health services to adolescents have an average technical efficiency score of 58%. This score is higher for female-run facilities than for male-run facilities. Similarly, health facilities that simultaneously improve their managerial, operational, adaptive and leadership capacities have a higher technical efficiency score than those that do not. However, the relationship between these capabilities differs from one dimension to another. Contribution: The results of this thesis improve knowledge on the analysis of ASRH interventions in developing countries. They also provide a body of evidence on which ASRH stakeholders can draw to better design and implement ASRH interventions, capable of making ASRH services available, accessible and usable.

Os resíduos sólidos urbanos (RSU) são produzidos em larga escala nos centros urbanos. Parte destes resíduos é constituída por matéria orgânica biodegradável e é desta fração que também são gerados os gases de efeito estufa (GEE). O gás metano (CH4) é o segundo maior contribuinte para o aquecimento global, atrás apenas do dióxido de carbono (CO2), entre as emissões antrópicas de GEE. Neste contexto o presente estudo teve como objetivo geral avaliar o potencial das emissões de gás metano no âmbito do MDL oriundas da decomposição dos RSU dispostos no aterro sanitário da Central de Resíduos do Vale do Aço (CRVA), localizada no município de Santana do Paraíso, inserido na região do Vale do Aço, porção Leste do Estado de Minas Gerais, tendo como municípios atendidos Ipatinga, Coronel Fabriciano, Timotéo, Santana do Paraíso, Marliéria, Itanhomi e Belo Oriente. Como objetivos específicos foram estimados: a quantidade em toneladas de dióxido de carbono equivalente (CO2e) gerados no aterro sem a atividade de projeto de MDL; a quantidade em toneladas de CO2e reduzidas com a implantação de projeto de MDL; a composição gravimétrica dos RSU domésticos dispostos no aterro sanitário da CRVA e descritos os principais impactos ambientais e as fontes e os gases abrangidos pelo limite de um projeto de MDL aplicado na CRVA. Para um total de 3,141E+06 toneladas de RSU aterrados num período de 30 anos de vida útil do aterro sanitário estima-se que haverá emissão de 6,507E+04 toneladas de CH4 para o mesmo período de projeto, o que equivale a 1,366E+06 toneladas de CO2e. As emissões reduzidas com a implantação do projeto são de 1,366E+05 toneladas de CO2e para a vida útil do aterro sanitário, equivalendo a 136.600 Certificados de Emissões Reduzidas (CER) para negociar no mercado de créditos de carbono. O valor estimado dos equipamentos de coleta e queima de biogás na CRVA é de R$ 980.000,00. De acordo com a receita estimada adquirida no primeiro período de projeto de MDL (2012-2018), ou seja, em sete anos, o investimento inicial aplicado será totalmente custeado. Conclui-se que há potencial para implantação de projeto de MDL na CRVA, identificando como o principal impacto ambiental negativo a perda de emissões de biogás pela camada de cobertura do aterro, a qual pode ultrapassar os 10%.

A seleção do tipo de pavimento é baseada atualmente no país considerando-se os custos de implantação e manutenção e o atendimento às normas técnicas, ou seja, a escolha é feita por meio de análise técnico-econômica. Órgãos federais, estaduais e municipais não preveem avaliação quantitativa do consumo de energia e da emissão de poluentes atmosféricos, utilizando somente o fator econômico como parâmetro decisivo sobre duas ou mais alternativas de estruturas de pavimento. Construções e reconstruções de pavimentos consomem um grande volume de energia tanto para obtenção e processamentos dos materiais quanto na aplicação e execução propriamente dita dos serviços. Tendo em vista a necessidade de considerar aspectos de sustentabilidade na escolha entre diferentes tipos de solução de pavimento, buscou-se avaliar a emissão de poluentes e consumo de energia e água para a fase de implantação do pavimento. Para tal foi avaliada a utilização de diferentes programas computacionais capazes de avaliar a questão ambiental qualitativamente, como o GreenroadsTM e o GreenPave, e quantitativamente, o GaBi, DuboCalc, VTTI/UC, ECORCE-M e PaLATE. Este último foi o escolhido para elaboração deste estudo sendo utilizado em análise unitária o que permitiu a elaboração de gráfico de impressão digital ambiental. São apresentados estudos de caso em três metodologias diferentes sendo que a última delas sugere a análise de três matrizes de solução totalizando mais de 230 mil casos que levam a obtenção de três equações de previsão das emissões de CO2 em função do tráfego, condição de suporte do subleito e número estrutural. Ao final, é sugerida a inserção da parcela ambiental na análise para escolha dos pavimentos com a utilização das ferramentas propostas, ou seja, as equações de previsão de emissões de CO2 e o gráfico de impressão digital ambiental. / The pavement structure selection in Brazil nowadays is based considering the costs of construction and maintenance and the check against design standards, in other words, the choice is made by a technical-economic analysis. Brazilian Federal agencies do not provide standards for a quantitative assessment of energy consumption and atmospheric pollutants emission, using only the economic factor as a decision parameter on two or more pavement structures. Pavement construction and reconstruction of pavement structures consume a large volume of energy while obtaining, processing and applying materials during paving services. Considering the need to account aspects of sustainability in the choice between different types of pavement solution, it was sought to evaluate the emission of pollutants and energy and water consumption for the pavement construction phase. In order to do so, it was evaluated the use of different softwares capable of account the environmental question qualitatively, such as the GreenroadsTM and GreenPave, and quantitatively, such as GaBi, DuboCalc, VTTI / UC, ECORCE-M and PaLATE. PaLATE was chosen to be software used in this study being used in unitary analysis that allowed the elaboration of environmental fingerprint graph. Case studies are presented in three different methodologies. The last suggests the analysis of three solution matrices totaling more than 230 thousand cases that leads to obtaining three prediction equations of CO2 emissions as a function of traffic, subgrade support condition and structural number. At the end, it is suggested the insertion of the environmental part in the pavement choose analysis with the use of the proposed tools, the CO2 forecasting emission equations and the environmental fingerprint graph.

Submitted by Joana Azevedo (joanad@id.uff.br) on 2017-08-10T19:16:46Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Edson Carlos S Andrade.pdf: 2831184 bytes, checksum: 54b1eca5925e999bc11f2567ed41e013 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Biblioteca da Escola de Engenharia (bee@ndc.uff.br) on 2017-09-04T15:55:11Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Edson Carlos S Andrade.pdf: 2831184 bytes, checksum: 54b1eca5925e999bc11f2567ed41e013 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-04T15:55:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Edson Carlos S Andrade.pdf: 2831184 bytes, checksum: 54b1eca5925e999bc11f2567ed41e013 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-07-01 / O Tratado de Kyoto concluiu que as mudanças climáticas têm, nas ações do homem, uma das causas do descontrole do efeito estufa, através das emissões em excesso “Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEE)”. O objetivo é reduzir essas emissões, cuja meta foi estabelecida para 2030, e realizar inventários é monitorar o quanto cada país está emitindo. As empresas fazem os Inventários, providenciam que os mesmos sejam verificados por profissionais de órgãos de terceira parte. Neste contexto, o objetivo desta pesquisa é propor diretrizes para a capacitação desses verificadores. Como metodologia, foi realizada revisão da literatura, que fez abordagem sobre cada etapa do processo. As obras de autores e normas suportam a sistemática necessária para elaboração do inventário e sua verificação. Competências necessárias são enfatizadas, segundo abordagem moderna onde Conhecimento, Habilidade e Atitude (CHA) conceituam o modelo de Competência a ser seguido pelos profissionais envolvidos. A metodologia aplicada na pesquisa também contempla característica descritiva e são utilizadas ferramentas, tais como questionários que fazem uso de métodos qualitativo e quantitativo. Através da pesquisa verificou-se a necessidade de melhoria da capacitação dos Verificadores, pois na visão dos Avaliadores do INMETRO, as não conformidades abertas no processo de avaliação dos organismos, grande parte destas, relacionam-se aos verificadores. Quanto à Habilidade observou-se gaps relacionados à liderança e visão sistêmica e à dimensão Atitude, que é a necessidade do verificador ser aberto a feedbacks. Quanto à diversidade dos segmentos a elaborarem inventários, todos colocaram que interatividade dos verificadores e treinamentos podem minimizar tal dificuldade. Os objetivos foram atingidos e aspectos foram colocados para a melhoria do processo e, consequentemente, com vistas a aumentar a credibilidade dos Inventários de Emissões de GEE / The Kyoto Treaty concluded that climate change have on the actions of man, one of the causes of the lack of control of the greenhouse effect, through excessive emissions "of Greenhouse Gases (GHG). The objective is to reduce these emissions, whose goal was set for 2030 and perform inventories is how to monitor how much each country is sending. Companies make inventories ensure that they are checked by professional third-party organ. In this context, the objective of this research is to propose guidelines for the training of these testers. How methodology literature review was carried out which did approach on each step of the process. The works of authors and systematic support standards required for your verification and inventory. Skills are emphasized, according to modern approach where Knowledge, skill and attitude, conceptualize the competency model to be followed by the professionals involved. The methodology applied in research also includes descriptive feature and are used tools such as questionnaires that make use of qualitative and quantitative methods. Through research it was found the need to improve the training of checkers, because in the view of the evaluators from INMETRO, the non-conformities opened in the evaluation process, a large part of these, relating to checkers. As for the observed Skill gaps related to: leadership and systemic view and the size is the need of the Verifier be open to feedback. As the diversity of segments to draw up inventories, all put to interactivity of the testers and training can minimize such difficulty. The objectives were achieved and aspects were put to improve the process, consequently increasing the credibility of GHG Emission Inventories.

A seleção do tipo de pavimento é baseada atualmente no país considerando-se os custos de implantação e manutenção e o atendimento às normas técnicas, ou seja, a escolha é feita por meio de análise técnico-econômica. Órgãos federais, estaduais e municipais não preveem avaliação quantitativa do consumo de energia e da emissão de poluentes atmosféricos, utilizando somente o fator econômico como parâmetro decisivo sobre duas ou mais alternativas de estruturas de pavimento. Construções e reconstruções de pavimentos consomem um grande volume de energia tanto para obtenção e processamentos dos materiais quanto na aplicação e execução propriamente dita dos serviços. Tendo em vista a necessidade de considerar aspectos de sustentabilidade na escolha entre diferentes tipos de solução de pavimento, buscou-se avaliar a emissão de poluentes e consumo de energia e água para a fase de implantação do pavimento. Para tal foi avaliada a utilização de diferentes programas computacionais capazes de avaliar a questão ambiental qualitativamente, como o GreenroadsTM e o GreenPave, e quantitativamente, o GaBi, DuboCalc, VTTI/UC, ECORCE-M e PaLATE. Este último foi o escolhido para elaboração deste estudo sendo utilizado em análise unitária o que permitiu a elaboração de gráfico de impressão digital ambiental. São apresentados estudos de caso em três metodologias diferentes sendo que a última delas sugere a análise de três matrizes de solução totalizando mais de 230 mil casos que levam a obtenção de três equações de previsão das emissões de CO2 em função do tráfego, condição de suporte do subleito e número estrutural. Ao final, é sugerida a inserção da parcela ambiental na análise para escolha dos pavimentos com a utilização das ferramentas propostas, ou seja, as equações de previsão de emissões de CO2 e o gráfico de impressão digital ambiental. / The pavement structure selection in Brazil nowadays is based considering the costs of construction and maintenance and the check against design standards, in other words, the choice is made by a technical-economic analysis. Brazilian Federal agencies do not provide standards for a quantitative assessment of energy consumption and atmospheric pollutants emission, using only the economic factor as a decision parameter on two or more pavement structures. Pavement construction and reconstruction of pavement structures consume a large volume of energy while obtaining, processing and applying materials during paving services. Considering the need to account aspects of sustainability in the choice between different types of pavement solution, it was sought to evaluate the emission of pollutants and energy and water consumption for the pavement construction phase. In order to do so, it was evaluated the use of different softwares capable of account the environmental question qualitatively, such as the GreenroadsTM and GreenPave, and quantitatively, such as GaBi, DuboCalc, VTTI / UC, ECORCE-M and PaLATE. PaLATE was chosen to be software used in this study being used in unitary analysis that allowed the elaboration of environmental fingerprint graph. Case studies are presented in three different methodologies. The last suggests the analysis of three solution matrices totaling more than 230 thousand cases that leads to obtaining three prediction equations of CO2 emissions as a function of traffic, subgrade support condition and structural number. At the end, it is suggested the insertion of the environmental part in the pavement choose analysis with the use of the proposed tools, the CO2 forecasting emission equations and the environmental fingerprint graph.

Thesis (PhD--English)--University of Auckland, 2009. / "Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements of the Doctor of Philosophy in English, the University of Auckland, 2009." Includes bibliographical references.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Brazil is the world's largest producer of sugarcane. However, few studies have been conducted to evaluate the effect soil management systems and fertilization practices on emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Therefore, the present study was aimed to assess the GHG emissions during the life cycle of sugarcane under different soil management systems and nitrogen (N) fertilization. The study was comprised of two experiments. In the first experiment, four tillage systems (conventional tillage - CT; chisel plough - CP, No tillage - NT, and compacted No tillage - CNT) while in the second experiment different doses of N (0, 40, 80 and 120 kg N ha-1) were evaluated for their effect on GHG and productivity. GHG emissions were assesses on different dates and soil samples were also taken to measure the levels of mineral N and soil moisture. The global warming potential (GWP) in each management system was calculated by using initial and final C content of the soils plus the emissions of N2O and CH4 during the experiments. The sugarcane yield and CH4 emission (mean -1.25 kg CH4-C ha-1) were not affected by different tillage systems. The cumulative amount of CO2 varied in the following order: CT> NT> CP> CNT. In the CNT, greater flows of N2O after rainfall events was occurred which were approximately two times greater than the CT and CP (517 vs 254 μg m-2h-1) and 7.5 times higher than in NT. The CT tillage system showed higher value of GWP, followed by the CP and CNT indicating that the use of conservation tillage is a strategy with the potential to mitigate GHG emissions from sugarcane crop in southern Brazil. The N2O emission increased linearly with the doses of N applied. On an average, 0.28 kg N2O-N ha-1 was emitted from 20 kg N ha-1. The values of N2O emission factors were calculated based on IPCC methodology for the conditions of this study indicate that for doses less than 40 kg N ha-1 values obtained are below the default value of 1.25%. For doses above 60 kg N ha-1 values obtained are similar to the factors indicated by the IPCC. Emission factors based on the relationship between the N2O emission and productivity indicated that productivity was increased with doses above 40-60 kg N ha-1 with high amount of N2O emission per Mg produced. / O Brasil é o maior produtor mundial de cana-de-açúcar. No entanto, poucos estudos têm sido realizado para avaliar o efeito de sistemas de preparo e manejo da adubação nitrogenada na cultura da cana-de-açúcar sobre as emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE). Com o objetivo de avaliar a emissão de GEE duarante o ciclo da cana-de-açúcar foram realizados dois experimentos, o primeiro constituido por quatro sistemas de preparo do solo (solo em preparo convencional - PC; solo escarificado - ESC; solo em plantio direto - PD; e solo em plantio direto compactado - PDC) e o segundo por quatro doses de N aplicadas (0, 40, 80 e 120 kg N ha-1). Nos dois experimentos foram avaliadas a produtividade de colmos e as emissões de dióxido de carbono (CO2), metano (CH4) e óxido nitroso (N2O). Em diferentes datas de avaliação dos GEE foram realizadas coletas de solo para quantificar os teores de N mineral e umidade do solo. Com base nos dados de C no solo no início e ao final do experimento e das emissões de N2O e CH4 foi calculado o poder de aquecimento global (PAG) em cada sistema de preparo. A produtividade de colmos e a emissão de CH4 (média de -1,25 kg C-CH4 ha-1) não foram afetadas pelos diferentes sistemas de preparo do solo. A quantidade acumulada de CO2 variou na seguinte ordem: PC> PD > ESC> PDC. Quando o solo na entrelinha da cultura foi mantido em PD ocorreram os menores fluxos de N2O. No PDC a média dos maiores fluxos de N2O após os eventos pluviométricos foi aproximadamenmte 2 vezes maior do que no PC e ESC (517 vs 254 μg m-2h-1) e 7,5 vezes maior do que no PD. O sistema de preparo do solo PC apresentou maior valor de PAG, seguido pelo ESC e PDC indicando que o uso de plantio direto é uma estratégia com potencial para mitigar as emissões de GEE na implantação de lavouras de cana-de-açúcar na região sul do Brasil. A emissão de N2O aumentou linearmente com as doses de N aplicadas na cultura. Na média dos ciclos de cana planta e soca para cada 20 kg N ha-1 aplicados, são emitidos 0,28 kg N-N2O ha-1. Os valores dos fatores de emissão de N2O calculados com base na metodologia do IPCC para as condições do presente estudo indicam que para doses menores que 40 kg N ha-1 os valores obtidos estão abaixo do valor padrão de 1,25%. Para doses acima de 60 kg N ha-1 os valores dos fatores obtidos são semelhantes ao indicado pelo IPCC. Fatores de emissão baseados na relação entre a emissão de N2O e a produtividade de colmos, indicam que incrementos de produtividades de colmos obtidas com doses acima de 40-60 kg N ha-1 irão apresentar elevada quantidade de N2O emitida por Mg de colmo produzida.

Práce se zabývá longitudinálními daty - měřeními, která jsou prová- děna opakovaně na stejných subjektech. Popisuje r·zné typy model·, které jsou vhodné pro jejich analýzu. Postupuje od nejjednodušších lineárních model· s pevnými nebo náhodnými efekty, přes lineární a nelineární modely se smíšenými efekty, až ke zobecněným lineárním model·m a generalized estimating equati- ons (GEE). Vždy je uveden tvar modelu a zp·sob odhadu parametr·. Jednotlivé modely jsou také porovnávány mezi sebou. Teoretické poznatky jsou doplněny aplikacemi na reálná data. Pomocí lineárních model· analyzujeme data o výrobě v USA, nelineární modely využijeme k vysvětlení závislosti koncentrace léčiva v krvi na čase a GEE aplikujeme na data týkající se dýchacích potíží u dětí. 1