Severe weather events like hurricanes and tornadoes pose major risks globally, underscoring the critical need for accurate forecasts to mitigate impacts. While advanced computational capabilities and climate models have improved predictions, lack of high-resolution initial conditions still limits forecast accuracy. The Atlantic's "Hurricane Alley" region sees most storms arise, thus needing robust in-situ ocean data plus atmospheric profiles to enable precise hurricane tracking and intensity forecasts. Examining satellite datasets reveals radio occultation (RO) provides the most accurate 5-25 km altitude atmospheric measurements. However, below 5 km accuracy remains insufficient over oceans versus land areas. Some recent benchmark study e.g. Patil Iiyama (2022), and Wei Guan (2022) in their work proposed the use of deep learning models for sea surface temperature (SST) prediction in the Tohoku region with very low errors ranging from 0.35°C to 0.75°C and the root-mean-square error increases from 0.27°C to 0.53°C over the over the China seas respectively. The approach we have developed remains unparalleled in its domain as of this date. This research is divided into two parts and aims to develop a data driven satellite-informed machine learning system to combine high-quality but sparse in-situ ocean data with more readily available low-quality satellite data. In the first part of the work, a novel data-driven satellite-informed machine learning algorithm was implemented that combines High-Quality/Low-Coverage in-situ point ocean data (e.g. ARGO Floats) and Low-Quality/High-Coverage Satellite ocean Data (e.g. HYCOM, MODIS-Aqua, G-COM) and generated high resolution data with a RMSE of 0.58◦C over the Atlantic Ocean.The second part of the work a novel GNN algorithm was implemented on the Gulf of Mexico and showed it can successfully capture the complex interactions between the ocean and mimic the path of a ARGO floats with a RMSE of 1.40◦C. / Doctor of Philosophy / Severe storms like hurricanes and tornadoes are a major threat around the world. Accurate weather forecasts can help reduce their impacts. While climate models have improved predictions, lacking detailed initial conditions still limits forecast accuracy. The Atlantic's "Hurricane Alley" sees many storms form, needing good ocean and atmospheric data for precise hurricane tracking and strength forecasts. Studying satellite data shows radio occultation provides the most accurate 5-25 km high altitude measurements over oceans. But below 5 km accuracy remains insufficient versus over land. Recent research proposed using deep learning models for sea surface temperature prediction with low errors. Our approach remains unmatched in this area currently. This research has two parts. First, we developed a satellite-informed machine learning system combining limited high-quality ocean data with more available low-quality satellite data. This generated high resolution Atlantic Ocean data with an error of 0.58°C. Second, we implemented a new algorithm on the Gulf of Mexico, successfully modeling complex ocean interactions and hurricane paths with an error of 1.40°C. Overall, this research advances hurricane forecasting by combining different data sources through innovative machine learning techniques. More accurate predictions can help better prepare communities in hurricane-prone regions.

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Com o crescente debate a respeito da contribuição do homem nas emissões de gases causadores do efeito estufa, além da pressão da sociedade por um comprometimento maior das lideranças mundiais com políticas de mitigação dos efeitos das mudanças climáticas, faz-se necessário estudar os efeitos que a adoção de políticas climáticas pelos países do chamado Anexo I (desenvolvidos) e pelos que pertencem ao Não-Anexo I (em desenvolvimento) podem ter sobre a economia brasileira. Também é importante analisar como se daria este impacto em um contexto onde o Brasil adotaria políticas de mitigação dos efeitos das mudanças climáticas, principalmente pelo fato do país ser responsável por uma parcela considerável de gases causadores do efeito estufa, devido às atividades relacionadas às mudanças no uso da terra, agricultura e pecuária, bem como pela crescente pressão para um compromisso mundial de esforço de redução de emissões. O presente trabalho buscou estimar cenários para o Brasil, levando-se em consideração políticas ambientais domésticas e internacionais já discutidas ou em aplicação pelos países desenvolvidos, e assim, verificar quais os impactos sobre as economias em termos de bem-estar e produto. / With the growing debate about the contribution of human emissions of greenhouse gases, along with pressure from society for a greater commitment of world leaders with policies to mitigate the effects of climate change, it is necessary to study the effects that adoption of climate policies by the countries of the so-called Annex I (developed) and those who belong to non-Annex I (developing) may have on the Brazilian economy. It is also important to analyze how this impact would occur in a context where Brazil would adopt policies to mitigate the effects of climate change, mainly because the country is responsible for a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions due to activities related to changes in land use, agriculture and livestock, as well as the increasing pressure for a global commitment to emissions reduction effort. The present study sought to estimate scenarios for Brazil, taking into account domestic and international environmental policies already discussed or implemented by developed countries, and thus determine the impacts on the economies in terms of welfare and product.

Den här uppsatsen undersöker punken och några aspekter av dess visuella identitet. Genom att söka några av dess konsthistoriska rötter finner man att situationism och dadaism ofta nämns som konströrelser med ett uttryck som punken bygger vidare på. Det kan förklaras genom bland annat att Malcom McClaren och Jamie Reid, som låg bakom lanseringen av Sex Pistols, hade en situationistisk bakgrund. Reids arbete med till exempel skivomslag åt Pistols har också lagt grunden för föreställningen om vad punkestetik är. Med analyser av God Save The Queen 1977 och Nowhere Buses 1972 har jag sökt att ge en förklaring till hur de bilderna kan tänkas fungera utifrån en mottagarkontext av frustrerade, arbetslösa ungdomar i slutet av 70-talet. Säkerhetsnålen som en symbol inom punken kan förstås som en kritik av konsumtionssamhället. Den tvetydiga användningen av svastikan på kläder och flygblad är mer svårtolkad, den kan ses utifrån sitt rent provocerande värde eller som att den tillhör en gammal värld och därför är utan betydelse. Från detta har jag följt punkens förgreningar mot en politiskt medveten subkultur där aktivism, anarkistisk teori och D.I.Y.-filosofi är rådande. D.I.Y. (Do It Yourself) är en viktig aspekt av punkens utveckling. Punken påverkar även andra konstnärliga uttryck som syns hos till exempel den samhällskritiske konstnären Banksy. Det går också att se ett kulturhistoriskt intresse för den ursprungliga punken, som nu blivit en del av kulturarvet. Utifrån bland annat den ideologiska förförståelsen som framträder i min undersökning har jag analyserar två verk av den svenska konstnären, och punkmusikern, Ella Tillema. På verket Mitt Hjärta Är En Bomb 2009 har jag lagt en feministisk blick och Den Postapokalyptiska Skapelseberättelsen (Partyt är Över) 2011 har analyserats utifrån en mottagarkontext med förståelse för anarkistisk aktivism, djurrättsfrågor och dess symboler. Punken som subkultur kan förstås som en motkultur och punkestetik som en motestetik. En slutsats som min undersökning leder till är att punkestetik kan ses både som förhållningssätt och som stil, D.I.Y.-aspekten är betydelsefull i båda avseenden. Som förhållningssätt handlar det bland annat om att inte vara en passiv konsument, utan vara delaktig och det blir i sin praktik till en slags samhällskritik. Identitet och tillhörighet är en viktig del av för att förstå punkestetik som stil. Stilen skapas dels utifrån bilder som haft stort genomslag inom subkulturen, till exempel Reids. Dels utifrån en teknisk amatörism, i vissa fall skenbar, som markerar D.I.Y.-praktiken där alla har möjlighet att vara delaktiga. Det är dock min mening att stil och förhållningssätt inte kan särskiljas om man vill förstå vad punkestetik är.

This qualitative dissertation in Counseling Psychology considers the open secret, an under-researched phrase describing an interesting phenomenon that is experienced by some, but not all, LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender) people when their sexual orientation is known or suspected by family members, friends, and/or coworkers, but not discussed. A review of the literature notes how the essence of the open secret appears to be about knowledge that is not acknowledged, while it may also create a space of grace, allowing people to coexist, where they might not otherwise be able to do so easily. Participants (N = 11) were either current or past members of the U.S. military who served before or during the Don’t Ask Don’t Tell policy. Interviews were analyzed using James Paul Gee’s linguistic approach to narrative, from which three major findings emerged: (a) sexual and homophobic harassment, whereby historically homophobic attitudes within the military drive the need for secrecy surrounding LGBT sexuality; (b) acceptance and support, whereby the open secret seems to create a space of grace; and (c) empowerment and honesty, whereby LGBT people seem to have a new sense of honesty that empowers them toward a new sense of agency. Discussion includes examination of how the three findings may relate to the open versus secret parts of the open secret, as well as how the open secret and the Don’t Ask Don’t Tell policy may represent a gestalt attempt at balance that may now be moving toward a gestalt dynamic of completion, suggesting the possibility of a new Discourse of openness and honesty for LGBT people that appears to be on a proleptic edge of possibility.

This thesis takes issue with Fredric Jameson’s suggestion that contemporary science fiction is sending back “more reliable information [about current political and economic organisation] than an exhausted realism” and it develops an alternative Marxist defense of contemporary realist fiction. Can realism's techniques adequately represent the complexity of contemporary political organization? The thesis presents readings of key realist texts — by Pat Barker, Maurice Gee, Kerstin Hensel, James Kelman and David Peace — testing their potential to produce the knowledge of history, industrial politics and the metropolis traditionally central to literary realism’s concerns. (For complete abstract open document).

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:06:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 5034.pdf: 832896 bytes, checksum: 2e9dd202302339e95fd416a410d6eb7e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-11 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / One of the distributions used to model extremal events is the type I extremevalue distribution (Gumbel distribution). The usual extreme-value regression model requires independent observations. In this work, using generalized linear model (Mc-Cullagh e Nelder, 1989) and generalized estimating equations (Liang e Zeger, 1986), we developed the extreme-value regression model when there are independent clusters formed by dependent variables. The behavior of parameter estimators of the proposed model is studied through Monte Carlo simulations. / A distribuição valor extremo tipo I, também conhecida como distribuição Gumbel, é uma das distribuições utilizadas para a modelagem de eventos extremos. Os modelos existentes de regressão valor extremo supõem que as observações sejam independentes, inviabilizando o uso desses modelos quando existe dependência entre as observações. Nesta dissertação, utilizando modelos lineares generalizados (McCullagh e Nelder, 1989) e equações de estimação generalizadas (Liang e Zeger, 1986), desenvolvemos o modelo de regress~ao valor extremo para o caso em que h a grupos independentes formados por respostas dependentes. O comportamento dos estimadoresdos parâmetros do modelo proposto é avaliada através de simulações Monte Carlo.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:52:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 RicardoTGA.pdf: 3343340 bytes, checksum: b7d667a5f20a1f26a7371755e94dcc8c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-11-19 / Instituto Federal de Educa??o, Ci?ncia e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Norte / As a contemporary tendency, it is been evidenced that the environmental changes theme, already admitted as a concernment to international economical and political reality, is also gaining repercussion on industrial and business sector. Firms are implementing actions on trial to minimize their own greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions impacts. However, the great majority of those actions of Corporative Social-Environmental Responsibility (CSR) are referred only to direct emissions of the main production systems. Direct emissions are those derived of an isolate process, without considering the upstream and downstream processes emissions, which respond for the majority of emissions originated because of respective firm‟s production system existence. Because the greenhouse effect occurs globally and the GHG emissions contribute to the environmental changes independently of their origin, it must be taken into account the whole productive life cycle of products and systems, since the energy invested on resources extraction and necessary materials to the final disposal. To do so, it must be investigated all relevant steps of a product/production system life cycle, tracking all activities which emit greenhouse gases, directly or indirectly. This amount of emissions consists in the firm‟s Carbon Footprint. This research purpose is to defend the Carbon Footprint relevance and its adoption viability to be used as an Environmental Indicator on measurement/assessment of CSR. It has been realized a study case on Petrobras‟s seat unity at Natal-Brazil, assessing part of its Carbon Footprint. It has been used the software GEMIS 4.6 to do the emissions quantifying. The items measured were the direct emissions of the own unity vehicles and indirect emissions of offset paper (A4), energy and disposable plastic cups consumed. To 2009, these emissions were 3.811,94 tCO2eq. We may conclude that Carbon Footprint quantification is indispensable to the knowledge of real emissions caused by a productive process existence, must serving as basis to CSR decisions about the environmental changes reversion challenge / Contemporaneamente, se est? constatando que o tema das altera??es clim?ticas, j? integralizado como preocupa??o da realidade pol?tica e econ?mica internacional, vem tamb?m adquirindo abrang?ncia e repercuss?o nos setores industriais e empresariais. As empresas, em seu enquadramento no novo conceito de combate ? mudan?a do clima, t?m adotado algumas medidas na tentativa de minimizar os impactos das suas pr?prias emiss?es de Gases Efeito Estufa (GEE). Contudo, a grande maioria das a??es de Responsabilidade Socioambiental Empresarial (RSE) quanto a essa tem?tica referem-se apenas ?s emiss?es diretas dos principais processos produtivos empresariais. As emiss?es diretas s?o aquelas derivadas de um processo isolado, sem considerar os processos upstream e downstream, os quais respondem pela a maior parte das emiss?es derivadas da exist?ncia de uma determinada empresa. Haja vista que o efeito estufa sobrev?m de forma global, e que as emiss?es de GEE contribuem para as mudan?as clim?ticas independentemente de sua origem, deve-se levar em considera??o todo o ciclo de vida produtivo de produtos e processos, desde a energia investida na extra??o da mat?ria-prima e insumos necess?rios at? o descarte final. Para se fazer isso, deve-se esquadrinhar todos os passos relevantes ao longo do ciclo de vida de um produto/processo produtivo, rastreando todas as atividades que emitam direta ou indiretamente GEE. O somat?rio dessas consiste justamente na Pegada de Carbono da empresa. A finalidade desse estudo ? defender a relev?ncia da Pegada de Carbono e viabilidade de ado??o desta para ser usada como Indicador de Sustentabilidade na avalia??o/mensura??o da RSE. Para isso, foi realizado um estudo de caso na unidade sede da Petrobras em Natal-RN, avaliando-se parte de sua Pegada de Carbono. Para a quantifica??o das emiss?es, foi utilizado o software GEMIS 4.6. Os itens medidos foram as emiss?es diretas dos ve?culos pr?prios da unidade e emiss?es indiretas do papel offset A4, energia el?trica e copos pl?sticos descart?veis consumidos. Para o exerc?cio de 2009, mensuramos a emiss?o de 3.811,94 tCO2eq. Conclu?mos que a aferi??o da Pegada de Carbono ? imprescind?vel para conhecimento das emiss?es reais causadas pela exist?ncia de um processo produtivo, devendo servir de base para a tomada de decis?es de RSE quanto ao desafio da revers?o das mudan?as clim?ticas

Com o crescente debate a respeito da contribuição do homem nas emissões de gases causadores do efeito estufa, além da pressão da sociedade por um comprometimento maior das lideranças mundiais com políticas de mitigação dos efeitos das mudanças climáticas, faz-se necessário estudar os efeitos que a adoção de políticas climáticas pelos países do chamado Anexo I (desenvolvidos) e pelos que pertencem ao Não-Anexo I (em desenvolvimento) podem ter sobre a economia brasileira. Também é importante analisar como se daria este impacto em um contexto onde o Brasil adotaria políticas de mitigação dos efeitos das mudanças climáticas, principalmente pelo fato do país ser responsável por uma parcela considerável de gases causadores do efeito estufa, devido às atividades relacionadas às mudanças no uso da terra, agricultura e pecuária, bem como pela crescente pressão para um compromisso mundial de esforço de redução de emissões. O presente trabalho buscou estimar cenários para o Brasil, levando-se em consideração políticas ambientais domésticas e internacionais já discutidas ou em aplicação pelos países desenvolvidos, e assim, verificar quais os impactos sobre as economias em termos de bem-estar e produto. / With the growing debate about the contribution of human emissions of greenhouse gases, along with pressure from society for a greater commitment of world leaders with policies to mitigate the effects of climate change, it is necessary to study the effects that adoption of climate policies by the countries of the so-called Annex I (developed) and those who belong to non-Annex I (developing) may have on the Brazilian economy. It is also important to analyze how this impact would occur in a context where Brazil would adopt policies to mitigate the effects of climate change, mainly because the country is responsible for a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions due to activities related to changes in land use, agriculture and livestock, as well as the increasing pressure for a global commitment to emissions reduction effort. The present study sought to estimate scenarios for Brazil, taking into account domestic and international environmental policies already discussed or implemented by developed countries, and thus determine the impacts on the economies in terms of welfare and product.

This study aims to highlight the art critic Stig Johansson's position during two historical moments: 1962-63 and 1972. The theoretical and methodological framework is mainly derived from Pierre Bourdieu’s understanding of the art field and the art critic's role and mission within that specific field. Art criticism is an important text source for expanded knowledge of how the discussion of contemporary art has been conducted. In the first chapter of the thesis, I describe some of the investments that preceded Johansson’s role as art critic. These efforts are to be regarded as field-specific as they were preparing Johansson with the kind of social capital that won recognition in the art field. In the second part of the essay, I distinguish between the art critical genre and mission. Instead of limiting the study to art reviews, which is usually associated with the genre of art criticism, the thesis also include material such as debate articles and notices. The study of these different text types contribute to an increased understanding of how art criticism practice actually worked, and what was to be included in such practices during these historical periods. The third chapter is based on an empirical study and focus on three selected themes: the new, the political and the art critic role. The fourth part consists of a text analysis based on Malcolm Gee’s strategies for persuasion in art criticism. A presentation and discussion of the art critical material, and hence the position Johansson takes, contributes to an increased understanding of the negotiations that characterized the art field during the periods in question. The thesis contributes to a nuanced perspective on the production of meaning through problematizing positions and values in the Swedish art field during two important historical moments.