La mise en place de l'Euro en 1999 a constitué un événement économique majeur pour les Etats européens. La crise financière de 2007, puis la crise de la dette souveraine en 2010, ont amené à remettre en question la pérennité de la zone Euro, et la capacité de certains de ses membres à respecter leurs engagements vis-à-vis de la monnaie unique. Les mesures d'austérité mises en oeuvre au sein de l'Union Economique et Monétaire dans le contexte actuel de crise peuvent constituer pour certains Etats une tentation supplémentaire pour quitter la monnaie unique et recouvrer leur indépendance monétaire et fiscale. Une sortie de la zone Euro de la Grèce, voire d'autres Etats membres en difficulté (Portugal, Irlande, Italie, et Espagne) n'est aujourd'hui plus un scénario à exclure. Cette thèse se propose de considérer la question du régime monétaire optimal, régime de change flexible ou union monétaire, pour les 17 pays de la zone Euro, dans le cadre des crises financières et de dettes souveraines qui les affectent actuellement. Le premier chapitre est général et vise à démontrer formellement la survenue d'une rupture structurelle due au passage à la monnaie unique en 1999. Il montre qu'une telle rupture s'est bien produite pour les pays de la zone Euro autour de l'année 1992, qui a marqué l'adoption du traité de Maastricht et la mise en place des critères de convergence pour l'adoption de l'Euro. Cette rupture n'est pas partagée par les trois pays européens qui ont préservé leur monnaie (Royaume-Uni, Suède, et Danemark). Le second chapitre constitue le coeur de ce travail. Il présente le modèle de référence utilisé pour mener la comparaison entre les deux régimes monétaires considérés pour la zone Euro. Il s'agit d'un modèle à deux pays intégrant des rigidités financières dans le cadre des transactions interbancaires conclues entre les Etats membres. Le modèle, une fois étalonné pour la zone Euro, suggère que les rigidités financières peuvent jouer un rôle considérable dans la dynamique de ces Etats, les chocs affectant les économies partenaires pouvant contribuer de manière significative à la dynamique nationale. Les simulations numériques préliminaires de crise financières menées sur le modèle ne permettent pas d'apporter de réponse concluante quant aux performances des deux régimes monétaires envisagés, le régime de change flexible semblant amener une stabilité accrue, là où une union monétaire permet une récupération plus rapide suite à la crise initiale. Le dernier chapitre remplit un double objectif. Il propose d'abord un critère de bien-être formel pour l'évaluation des performances respectives des deux régimes considérés. Il développe également un certain nombre d'extensions au modèle de référence, afin d'intégrer la dette souveraine, et les politiques de crédit (Covered Bonds Purchase Programme et Securities Markets Programme) mises en place par la BCE depuis le début de la crise. Les résultats montrent qu'en l'absence de politiques interventionnistes de la part de la Banque Centrale Européenne, une grande majorité des Etats de la zone Euro (15 sur 17) bénéficieraient d'un plus haut niveau de bien-être dans un régime de change flexible. Toutefois, les conclusions s'inversent dans le cadre du Securities Markets Programme, où les Etats membres deviennent alors majoritairement favorables au régime d'union monétaire. Celà suggère que la BCE a un rôle à jouer au sein de l'espace monétaire Européen qui va au-delà de sa fonction première d'instigatrice de la politique monétaire. / The introduction of the Euro currency in 1999 represented a major event for the European economies. The 2007 financial crisis and the subsequent 2010 sovereign debt crisis have led to question the sustainability of the Euro area and the capacity of certain member states to fulfil their commitments with respect to the single currency. The numerous austerity plans implemented within the Economic and Monetary Union in the current context of crisis constitute additional arguments for certain states to leave the single currency and retrieve their fiscal and monetary independences. It is not unconceivable anymore for countries such as Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain (the PIIGS) to envisage exiting the Euro area. This thesis considers the issue of determining the optimal monetary regime  flexible exchange rates or monetary union  for the 17 Eurozone countries, accounting for the current financial and sovereign debt crises. Chapter 1 is general and aims at formally establishing the occurrence of a structural break attributable to the 1999 passage to the single currency. It shows that such a break did take place for Euro area countries around 1992, the year which marked the adoption of the Maastricht Treaty and the settlement of the convergence criteria for the Euro. This break is not shared by the three European States which chose to preserve their own currencies (the United Kingdom, Sweden and Denmark). Chapter 2 constitutes the core of this work. It introduces the benchmark model used to perform the comparison between the two monetary regimes considered for the Euro area. It features a two-country open-economy model integrating financial frictions through cross-border interbank markets. Once calibrated for the Euro area, the model suggests that financial rigidities may play a substantial role in the dynamics of Eurozone economies, with a potentially significant impact of shocks affecting the partner economies over national developments. Preliminary financial crisis simulations run on the model prove inconclusive to assess the performances of the two monetary regimes contemplated. On the one hand, the flexible exchange rate regime results in improved stability, but on the other hand the monetary union typically allows for faster recovery following the initial crisis trigger. The third and final chapter meets a double purpose. It first proposes a formal welfare criteria to assess the respective performances of the two monetary regimes under consideration for the Euro area. It then augments the benchmark model with a number of extensions, so as to integrate sovereign debt and the diverse credit policies (Covered Bonds Purchase Programme and Securities Markets Programme) implemented by the ECB since the beginning of the crisis to the basic framework. The results show that absent credit policies, a vast majority of Euro area members (15 out of 17) would enjoy higher welfare levels under a flexible exchange rate regime. These conclusions nevertheless reverse under the Securities Markets Programme, where a majority of member states then favour the monetary union. This suggests that the ECB has a role to play for the Euro area which goes beyond its primary function of monetary policy maker.

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Luxembourg is one of the most successful financial centers in the world. Initially associated with international syndicated loans, euro-bonds and euro-currency markets, Luxembourg has developed as a center for private banking and is currently the second largest center for the domiciliation of investment funds in the world after the US - with a portfolio equivalent to about sixty times the country’s GDP -, and the first captive reinsurance market in the European Union. As in many other financial centers, the interbank market plays an important role. This partly reflects intra-group operations of foreign banks using their Luxembourg branches and subsidiaries to adjust their liquidity position. More generally, Luxembourg has attracted foreign banks seeking to benefit from its favorable regulatory framework, political stability, language skills of the local workforce and the agglomeration of specialized skills in accounting and legal services.<p><p>The importance of the financial sector in Luxembourg implies that a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with explicit modeling of the financial sector is indispensable in order to properly take into account the interaction between the financial and the real sector in the economy and the interconnectedness between different financial institutional sectors (e.g. commercial banks and investment funds). Explicit modeling of the financial sector also allows for an analysis of how the economy might respond to financial shocks.<p><p>This dissertation contributes to the literature by developing two analytical tools:<p><p>1.\ / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Agrarbasierte Volkswirtschaften in Afrika streben danach, die Produktivität und Produktion gemäß den Empfehlungen der Afrikanischen Union zu steigern. Allerdings kann eine bloße Produktionssteigerung den Landwirten schaden, wenn die Ab-Hof-Preise fallen als die Produktionskosten. Diese Dissertation analysiert die Implikationen der Verbesserung landwirtschaftlicher Wertschöpfungsketten am Beispiel Benin. Eine detaillierte Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) für Benin aus dem Jahr 2019 wird erstellt, die offizielle Statistiken und Stakeholder-Umfragedaten integriert. Diese SAM dient als Grundlage für die Kalibrierung von Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modellen, um die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der Entwicklung landwirtschaftlicher Wertschöpfungsketten zu analysieren. Die Forschung zeigt, dass die Entwicklung des Lebensmittelverarbeitungssektors, beispielhaft durch die Verarbeitung von Cashewkernen und Ananas, positive, armutsreduzierende Wohlfahrtseffekte hat und zum Wirtschaftswachstum beiträgt. Präferenzverschiebungen hin zu heimischem Geflügelfleisch stellen eine Alternative zu Handelspolitiken dar, um den heimischen Sektor zu stärken. Die Verarbeitung von Cashew-Nebenprodukten birgt Potenzial für die wirtschaftliche, soziale und ökologische Nachhaltigkeit der Agrar- und Ernährungssysteme. Investitionen in eine stabile Strominfrastruktur zur Unterstützung des industriellen Wachstums können die Produktionskosten senken und die Nachfrage nach landwirtschaftlichen Produkten erhöhen, was insbesondere einkommensschwachen Haushalten zugutekommt. Insgesamt kommt die Studie zu dem Schluss, dass die Entwicklung landwirtschaftlicher Wertschöpfungsketten in agrarwirtschaftlich geprägten Volkswirtschaften das Haushaltseinkommen erhöht, die Armut verringert, die makroökonomischen Indikatoren verbessert und die allgemeine wirtschaftliche Entwicklung fördert. / Agriculture-based economies in Africa are striving to boost productivity and production following the African Union's recommendations. However, merely increasing production can harm farmers if farm-gate prices drop more than production costs. Research on the broader economic effects of agricultural value-chain development is limited. This thesis addresses this gap by examining the economy-wide implications of enhancing agricultural value-chains, using Benin as a case study. A detailed 2019 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Benin is constructed, incorporating official statistics and stakeholder survey data. This SAM is used as the basis for calibrating Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. These models were adapted to analyze the impact of developing the food-processing sector, preference shifts, and stable electricity supply on the economy. The research reveals that developing the food-processing sector, exemplified by cashew nut and pineapple processing, has positive, pro-poor welfare effects and contributes to economic growth. Preference shifts towards domestic poultry meat is an alternative to trade policies in boosting the domestic sector. Processing of cashew byproducts has potential for economic, social and environmental sustainability of the agri-food systems. Investing in stable electricity infrastructure to support industrial growth can reduce production costs and increase demand for agricultural products, benefiting low-income households disproportionately. Overall, the study concludes that developing agricultural value-chains in agriculture-based economies enhances household income, reduces poverty, improves macroeconomic indicators, and fosters overall economic development.

Thesis focus on derivation of macro-finance model for analysis of yield curve and its dynamics using macroeconomic factors. Underlying model is based on basic Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium DSGE approach that stems from Real Business Cycle theory and New Keynesian Macroeconomics. The model includes four main building blocks: households, firms, government and central bank. Log-linearized solution of the model serves as an input for derivation of yield curve and its main determinants -- pricing kernel, price of risk and affine term structure of interest rates -- based on no-arbitrage assumption. The Thesis shows a possible way of consistent derivation of structural macro-finance model, with reasonable computational burden that allows for time varying term premia. A simple VAR model, widely used in macro-finance literature, serves as a benchmark. The paper also presents a brief comparison and shows an ability of both models to fit an average yield curve observed from the data. Lastly, the importance of term structure analysis is demonstrated using case of Central Bank deciding about policy rate and Government conducting debt management.

Abu Dhabi has experienced an unprecedented development during the last half century, growing rapidly from a remote desert settlement to a thriving metropolitan. Today, the Emirate ranks among the countries with the highest GDP per capita in the world, and this impressive development is anticipated to continue in the decades to come.<p><p>However, there are several challenges to the sustainability of the current economic prosperity, and the environmental degradation that was caused by the rapid development is an important factor in this context. Today, the United Arab Emirates as a country has the highest ecological footprint per capita in the world and Abu Dhabi, hosting the major part of the heavy industries and oil extraction capacity in the country, has an even larger footprint. Key drivers of this poor environmental track-record are the high greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption levels.<p><p>This deterioration of environmental conditions has growing implications for the economic welfare and physical well-being of the population. So far, the government's environmental policy is mostly symbolic, and concrete policy measures are largely lacking today. On the contrary, there are crucial elements in the governmental policy that have strong negative impacts on environmental conditions and thus on the sustainability of Abu Dhabi's growth, such as generous implicit subsidies on energy commodities and water and an ambitious strategy for economic growth, depending on a strong expansion of heavy industry.<p><p>This poses the question how environmental conditions will develop, when the population boom and economic expansion are anticipated to continue. However, the academic literature on environmental sustainability issues in Abu Dhabi as well as in the wider Gulf region is limited. Moreover, applied policy studies on the topic are absent as well.<p><p>This dissertation intends to contribute to the academic literature as well as to insights from existing policy studies, by projecting the impact of sustained economic growth on environmental conditions in Abu Dhabi. It compares a baseline scenario of economic growth with the four most relevant policy options aimed at footprint reductions available to policy makers in the Emirate: i) The introduction of a nuclear power plant; ii) An abandonment of utility price controls; iii) Shifts in the subsidization policy of water and energy markets; iv) Energy efficiency improvements in selected parts of the economy.<p><p>A recursively dynamic, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to generate the results in this dissertation, focusing on the two most important aspects of the ecological footprint in Abu Dhabi mentioned above. The CGE model is calibrated to a SAM for Abu Dhabi for 2009, and its specification is chosen to facilitate a focus on energy consumption and sustainability issues. Besides, it is extended by an environmental module and a fossil fuel module, and it incorporates several other modifications that are tailored to the Abu Dhabi economy.<p><p>Simulation results under a baseline scenario of economic growth show that carbon emissions will grow by 282% by 2030 compared to the base year 2009, and water consumption is anticipated to increase by 312%.<p><p>The introduction of nuclear plants, at the scale that is previewed today, will yield a reduction in emissions of 2.6% compared to the baseline scenario. The economic impact will be positive, with a 0.5% increase in GDP and small gains in employment levels.<p><p>Price liberalizations in the utility markets are a politically sensitive theme. When implemented, they can yield a 7.6% reduction in emissions and a 2.3% in water consumption by 2030 (vs. baseline). However, the economic cost involved amounts to 0.3% of GDP.<p><p>An abandonment of subsidies in the energy and water markets can lead to a 11.1% drop in carbon emissions, and a 28.8% decline in water consumption vs. baseline. The domestic economic impacts of this change are negative, but the GDP shows a modest 0.6% growth, due to improvements in the foreign trade balance.<p><p>Finally, efficiency improvements can lead to reductions in carbon emissions (13.8%) and water consumption (17.5%) compared to the baseline, and bring economic gains of 1.0% of GDP.<p><p>All four simulated policy scenarios in this dissertation bring about reductions in the ecological footprint, compared to the baseline as described above. Nonetheless, the consumption levels of energy and water as well as the related carbon emissions will be substantially higher in 2030 than they are today, under each of these scenarios. As a policy implication, the dissertation therefore finds that the previewed deterioration in environmental conditions requires active policy, if current welfare and prosperity are to be sustained. When assessed in the appropriate policy context, environmental conservation and improvements in the ecological footprint should be treated with a higher priority in the broad portfolio of development goals in Abu Dhabi.<p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Der Austausch von Waren, Dienstleistungen und Arbeitskräften wird im Falle von politischen Konflikten gestört. Im Palästinensisch-Israelischen Konflikt macht die Machtasymmetrie die palästinensische Wirtschaft abhängig von Israels Politik. Obwohl dieser Konflikt wegen seiner Gewalt und seinen politischen Entwicklungen in den Medien viel beachtet wird, wurden politische Optionen in den Bereichen Handel und Arbeitsmärkte und deren Auswirkungen auf die palästinensische Ökonomie bislang wenig untersucht und bewertet. Dies ist das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit, die sich auf die Ökonomie des Westjordanlands konzentriert. Diese Arbeit macht vier Beiträge zur Wissenschaft: Der erste ist die Entwicklung der ersten Sozialrechnungsmatrix für das Westjordanland. Der zweite ist die empirische Analyse von Auswirkungen unterschiedlicher Arbeitsmarktbedingungen in Gleichgewichtsmodellen. Der dritte ist die Anwendung einer verschachtelten Nutzen-Funktion, die die Vorteile von linearen Ausgabesystemen und konstanter Elastizität von Substitutionsfunktionen kombiniert. Schließlich hat diese Arbeit wichtige politische Implikationen für die Palästinensischen Autonomiebehörde (PA). In Bezug auf die Arbeitsmärkte wird gezeigt, dass es für die PA sinnvoll ist eine verstärkte palästinensische Beschäftigung in Israel anzustreben. Dabei sollten die negative Auswirkungen von aus Israel zufließendem Arbeitseinkommen („Holländische Krankheit“) gelindert werden. Dies könnte die PA durch Besteuerung von palästinensischer Beschäftigung in Israel und Schaffung von Anreizen zur Erhöhung der internationalen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit erreichen. In Bezug auf den Handel zeigt diese Arbeit, dass das die PA eine liberale, nicht diskriminierende Handelspolitik verfolgen sollte. Da Israel auch in Zukunft wohl der dominierende Handelspartner für das Westjordanland bleiben wird, sollte die PA die freiest mögliche Mobilität von Gütern und Dienstleistung zwischen dem Westjordanland und Israel anstreben. / The movement of goods, services and labour is disrupted when conflicts arise. In the case of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the asymmetry of power between the two parties leaves the Palestinian economy vulnerable to policies implemented by Israel. While this conflict attracts considerable media attention for its violence and political developments, the assessment of the economy-wide implications of trade and labour market policy options on the Palestinian economy is understudied. Exploring these implications is the objective of this thesis, focusing on the West Bank economy. This thesis makes four contributions to science. The first original contribution is the development of the first social accounting matrix for the West Bank. Second, this thesis contributes to the current state of knowledge by assessing empirically the implications of different labour market conditions in general equilibrium models. Third, this thesis contributes to model development by adopting a nested utility function combining the benefits of linear expenditure systems and constant elasticity of substitution functions to depict household preferences. Finally, this thesis has important policy implications for the Palestinian National Authority (PNA). Seen the limited development options in the West Bank, it is interesting for the PNA to seek an increased Palestinian employment in Israel in order to improve the welfare of Palestinian households. Meanwhile, the “Dutch disease” effects of labour income inflow from Israel can be mitigated by collecting a tax on Palestinians employed in Israel and incentivising the private sector to invest and create employment opportunities in the domestic market. With respect to trade, this thesis finds that the West Bank would be better off with a liberal and non-discriminatory trade policy. As Israel will remain the main trade partner for the West Bank, the PNA should seek the freest possible movement of goods and services between the West Bank and Israel.