abstract: Gerrymandering is a central problem for many representative democracies. Formally, gerrymandering is the manipulation of spatial boundaries to provide political advantage to a particular group (Warf, 2006). The term often refers to political district design, where the boundaries of political districts are “unnaturally” manipulated by redistricting officials to generate durable advantages for one group or party. Since free and fair elections are possibly the critical part of representative democracy, it is important for this cresting tide to have scientifically validated tools. This dissertation supports a current wave of reform by developing a general inferential technique to “localize” inferential bias measures, generating a new type of district-level score. The new method relies on the statistical intuition behind jackknife methods to construct relative local indicators. I find that existing statewide indicators of partisan bias can be localized using this technique, providing an estimate of how strongly a district impacts statewide partisan bias over an entire decade. When compared to measures of shape compactness (a common gerrymandering detection statistic), I find that weirdly-shaped districts have no consistent relationship with impact in many states during the 2000 and 2010 redistricting plan. To ensure that this work is valid, I examine existing seats-votes modeling strategies and develop a novel method for constructing seats-votes curves. I find that, while the empirical structure of electoral swing shows significant spatial dependence (even in the face of spatial heterogeneity), existing seats-votes specifications are more robust than anticipated to spatial dependence. Centrally, this dissertation contributes to the much larger social aim to resist electoral manipulation: that individuals & organizations suffer no undue burden on political access from partisan gerrymandering. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geography 2017

This diploma thesis opens a new deep insight into the issue of electoral systems in Czech and Central European political science. The mid-point of this research is the electoral bias in the electoral system to the Chamber of Deputies of the Parliament of the Czech Republic. The electoral bias is researched on all general elections from 1996 until 2013. To find out the electoral bias I apply mathematical method created and used by professor Galina Borisyuk from University of Plymouth. This method is based on several mathematical methods used by the American and the British political scientists for decades. However, the new method created by Galina Borisyuk is the most convenient for many reasons. Mainly this method isn't necessarily connected with plurality majority system, which was essential variable so far. Second key attribute of this method is the possibility to apply it on the three party systems, which is important variable for our political system in the Czech Republic as well. In analytical part of this research I apply the new mathematical method in all elections to the Chamber of Deputies of the Parliament of the Czech Republic. Ascertained results are analysed in the conclusion together that I have set the feasible ways to develop a new path the research of bias in the future.

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Submitted by Lucas Nogueira Garcez (lucas.garcez@gvmail.br) on 2015-09-08T18:16:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Lucas Nogueira Garcez.pdf: 1225922 bytes, checksum: 9435d144c65d17ff288b3b696dfe2782 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: A formatação de seu trabalho não está de acordo com as normas da ABNT. Será encaminhado por e-mail o que deverá ser alterado. Att. on 2015-09-08T18:43:28Z (GMT) / Submitted by Lucas Nogueira Garcez (lucas.garcez@gvmail.br) on 2015-09-08T23:24:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertaçãopdf.pdf: 776250 bytes, checksum: 9e7e2356a1c1f4abf65db95972f6ddc0 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: A formatação não está de acordo com as normas da ABNT. Informações serão encaminhadas por e-mail. on 2015-09-08T23:38:07Z (GMT) / Submitted by Lucas Nogueira Garcez (lucas.garcez@gvmail.br) on 2015-09-09T00:17:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação.pdf: 776291 bytes, checksum: 139a0ffea149ea50df4563de819dc960 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Informações por telefone. on 2015-09-09T00:22:20Z (GMT) / Submitted by Lucas Nogueira Garcez (lucas.garcez@gvmail.br) on 2015-09-09T00:42:08Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação2.pdf: 777162 bytes, checksum: 0cb5647bfe05eb1e0df9d6d1106afd13 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-09-09T00:43:18Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação2.pdf: 777162 bytes, checksum: 0cb5647bfe05eb1e0df9d6d1106afd13 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-09-09T13:00:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação2.pdf: 777162 bytes, checksum: 0cb5647bfe05eb1e0df9d6d1106afd13 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-08 / This work is intended to contribute to the literature about effects of municipalities secession, evaluating its possible impacts over municipal legislature elections. The theoretical models suggest that secession can alter the electoral outcomes in the seceded municipalities, in the same manner as the “gerrymandering”. The empirical evidence found suggests the same. / O presente trabalho pretende contribuir com a literatura sobre os efeitos das divisões de municípios, avaliando possíveis impactos das mesmas sobre as eleições legislativas municipais. Os modelos teóricos informam que o desmembramento pode alterar os 'outcomes' eleitorais nos municípios desmembrados, operando de maneira semelhante ao 'gerrymandering'. As evidências empíricas encontradas sugerem o mesmo.

While drawing electoral districts and its special type called gerrymandering (redistricting with a certain purpose in mind) has been present in American politics since the founding of the United States, it has recently received a lot of attention and criticism. Gerrymandering has been accused of ruining electoral competition, contributing to the gridlock in Congress, and hampering the spirit of American democracy. Moreover, legislators responsible for redistricting are frowned upon for choosing their own voters and thus ruining the purpose of the electoral process. Redistricting currently follows certain principles, the most important of which and the only two recognized at the federal level are population equality and minority representation. These principles were designed to limit the redistricting bodies when drawing districts. State legislatures remain the most common redistricting institution. However, for the criticism that they face various redistricting commissions with different powers were established. The current trend in the redistricting reform is to delegate the redistricting power to independent commissions which can adopt a redistricting plan without the consent of a legislature and whose members have no connections to politics. Competition and partisanship are the two most discussed...

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This dissertation analyzes how redistricting, minority representation, and perceived polarization— three topics regularly studied at the national level—function at the level of local government. The first two chapters focus on city council redistricting. In the first chapter, I used a new approach, a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm, to simulate city council district plans. By simulating tens of thousands of plans for each city, I was able to compare the plans that are actually implemented to a representative sample of all plausible plans. This analysis represents the first large-N geospatial analysis of city council redistricting. I found that the city council maps that are actually implemented feature more majority-minority districts than the median simulation. This implies that somewhere in the redistricting process, a conscious effort is made to foster minority representation. In the second chapter, I merged city council map data with the results of city council elections. I then analyzed the relationship between the composition of districts and who runs and who wins in city council elections. I found that district-level demographic makeup continues to be the dominant factor in the supply of minority candidates. I also found that, comparing two cities that are otherwise demographically and politically similar, cities that fall under the Voting Rights Act (VRA) pre-clearance had more minorities run for office and win election on average. In the third chapter, I conducted an original survey experiment to determine if respondents’ perceptions of partisan polarization differed in local contexts relative to the national political landscape. I did not find measurable differences in the perceived prevalence of support for different issues. However, I did find that respondents were slightly less willing to endorse generic language about partisans’ issue support when cued to think about ordinary voters in their local area. All together, these studies probe three different aspects of local electoral politics. In doing so, they help reconcile our understanding of electoral politics nationally with areas of local politics that still have many open questions.

Le découpage électoral est marqué par le mythe du gerrymandering, ou du « charcutage électoral ». Gouvernements et majorités l’utiliseraient dans l’objectif d’établir une carte électorale favorable par la délimitation de circonscriptions visant produire des gains électoraux. Il serait un outil électoraliste utilisé à des fins partisanes. En France, cette perception prédomine notamment en raison du peu de travaux consacrés au découpage électoral qui est, pourtant, un objet important au sein de la littérature politiste internationale. La thèse propose une étude du découpage des circonscriptions législatives sous la Ve République selon deux axes. Le premier, relatif au processus, interroge le rôle et l’action du gouvernement. Grâce à une analyse pluridisciplinaire, il apparaît que le découpeur est soumis à de fortes contraintes, et que les députés y occupent un rôle majeur. Le second porte sur les conséquences des délimitations. Après l’élaboration d’une méthode permettant d’appréhender l’aspect politique des découpages, l’étude empirique – statistique et cartographique – établit que les circonscriptions sont découpées en fonction des députés – sortants –, avant d’être favorables aux partis politiques, ou à la majorité qui y procède. S’il apparaît également que les changements de délimitations ne produisent pas toujours les effets escomptés, ils disposent de conséquences structurelles qui se vérifient sur la compétition électorale. Sous la Ve République, les découpages électoraux peuvent être qualifiés d’interparlementaires et d’intrapartisans. In fine, ni le processus, ni les conséquences des découpages électoraux ne correspondent à sa représentation cognitive classique. / The myth of the gerrymandering overshadows the redistricting. Governments allegedly use it to draw a favorable electoral map aiming electoral profits. Thus, it is supposed to be an electioneering mechanism used for partisan motives. In France, few studies have been devoted to redistricting which is also an important object within the international political scientist literature. The thesis puts forward a study of the legislative redistricting under the Fifth Republic following two axes. The first one, the analysis of the policy process, questions the role and the actions of the government. Through a multidisciplinary analysis, it appears that the government is strongly constrained and that MPs have a main function. The second one relates to the consequences of redistricting. After developing a method to understand the politics of limits, the empirical study – statistical and cartographic – shows that districts are made according to deputies – incumbents –, before favoring political parties, or the majority making the redistricting. It also appears that if the constituency boundaries are not decisive, they still have structural consequences on the electoral competition. Under the Fifth Republic, redistricting can be described as interparliamentary and intrapartisan. To sum up, neither the redistricting process nor its electoral consequences match the "classic" cognitive representation of the redistricting.

The master's thesis deals with local elections in the Czech Republic from the point of view of electoral engineering. Theoretical part of the thesis is focused on the elections, electoral systems and variables of electoral systems. The main variables are electoral district magnitude, electoral formula, legal threshold and the number and character of tier districting. The thesis then describes issue of gerrymandering and malapportionment from the theoretical perspective. The next part of the thesis deals with legislative framework of the local government elections from 1989 including rules and problematic characteristics of current electoral law for electing members of municipality. Empirical part of the thesis analyses local elections in the Czech Republic and results of the elections between 1994 and 2014. In the last chapter, division of the territory into electoral districts is assessed with an emphasis on principle of equal weight of votes and degree of proportionality. Comparison was carried out by using two indices of proportionality, Loosemore and Hanby index and D'Hondt index.

This study examined possibilities of preforming gerrymandering within Swedish municipal elections before 2015, when new regulations contributing to guaranteeing a proportional seat allocation and thereby eliminating the risk of gerrymandering altogether were introduced. As the configuration of the districting problems in Swedish elections follows that of spatial unit allocation, these problems could be modelled as integer-programming problems including previously formulated constraints guaranteeing necessary geometrical and topological properties of districts as well as additional objectives and constraints promoting desired seat allocations. For several of the examined municipalities districts solutions with none-suspicious shapes and a more desirable seat allocation for the considered parties given voting outcomes from the 2014 elections were found. The implication of these results for Swedish municipal elections prior to 2015 as well as other elections using similar seat allocation procedures would however be highly dependent on the ability to make detailed and accurate predictions of voting outcomes prior to actual elections.