Esta dissertação analisou tempestades que produziram granizo na Região Metropolitana de Campinas com o objetivo de identificar fatores determinantes para a produção e precipitação de granizo. De forma inédita, uma rede de detecção de granizo instalada na região permitiu a identificação e determinação das intensidades das tempestades entre 2016 e 2017. O ciclo de vida, estrutura microfísica e cinemática de casos específicos foram estudados usando três radares meteorológicos instalados no estado de São Paulo e uma rede de detecção de raios, usando ferramentas como rastreamento de sistemas convectivos, identificação de hidrometeoros e recuperação de vento tridimensional por Multi-Doppler. Comparando com escalas de intensidade de granizo aplicadas ao continente europeu, os casos analisados apresentaram intensidade baixa, com granizo de no máximo 22,4 mm de diâmetro. O caso de 2017-03-14 apresentou o tempo de vida mais longo (6,2 h), queda de granizo em duas localidades (com diâmetro máximo de 11,8 mm) e atividade elétrica mais intensa (taxa máxima de 107 (31) flashes/min IC (CG)), enquanto que o caso de 2017-11-15, com tempo de vida mais curto (2,2 h), apresentou baixa atividade elétrica (total de 46 (20) flashes IC (CG)) porém com queda de granizo mais intensa (com diâmetro máximo de 22,4 mm). Todas as quedas de granizo dos casos específicos citados anteriormente estão associadas a uma extensa coluna de granizo identificada pelo radar polarimétrico e correntes ascendentes de até 30 m/s antes do evento; o granizo maior no caso de 2017-11-15 possivelmente tem contribuição da precipitação na forma líquida (associada à correntes descendentes mais intensas) que previne a diminuição de tamanho do granizo ao mesmo tempo que contribui para o seu crescimento mesmo abaixo da base da nuvem. Alguns fatores determinantes encontrados em ambos os casos foram o aumento da atividade elétrica antes ou depois da queda de granizo, a presença de granizo em uma camada extensa dentro da nuvem e a atuação da corrente ascendente dentro da região de fase mista contribuindo para a formação e crescimento do granizo. / This dissertation analyzed hail producing storms on the Metropolitan Region of Campinas to identify key factors for hailfall occurrence. For the first time, a hail detection network installed in the region allowed the identification and determination of thunderstorm intensity in the 2016-2017 period. The life cycle, microphysical structure and kinematics of specific cases were studied using three meteorological radars installed in São Paulo state and a lightning detection network, with tools such as tracking of convective systems, hydrometeor identification and Multi-Doppler 3D wind retrieval. The analyzed cases had low hailfall intensity when compared with scales applied in Europe, with 22.4 mm maximum hail diameter. The 2017-03-14 case presented the longest lifetime (6.2 h), hailfall in two locations (11.8 mm maximum hail diameter) and the most intense lightning activity (107 (31) flashes/min IC (CG) maximum rate), while the 2017-11-15 case, with a shorter lifetime (2.2 h), presented low electrical activity (46 (20) flashes IC (CG) total) with the most intense hailfall (22.4 mm maximum hail diameter). All hailfall cases of the specific cases mentioned earlier are associated with a extensive hail column identified by the polarimetric radar and up to $30 m/s updrafts before the events; the bigger hail in the 2017-11-15 case possibly had the contribution of liquid precipitation (associated with larger downdrafts) which prevents hail size decrease as well as contributes to its growth below the cloud base. Some key factors found in both cases were the increase in electrical activity before or after hailfall, the presence of hail in a extensive layer within cloud and the updrafts within mixed phase layer contributing to hail formation and growth.

En Tunisie, le caractère aléatoire du phénomène de la grêle, qui a comme corollaire son extrême variabilité, en fréquence d’apparition, en localisation et en intensité, a empêché un suivi permanent de ce type de précipitations. Le manque de périodes d’observation assez longues et les lacunes au niveau des données disponibles ont laissé cet aléa peu étudié donc peu connu. La trace de la grêle provoque de lourds dégâts agricoles chaque année et soulève des questions quant aux stratégies de gestion d’autant plus que les systèmes antigrêle sont quasiment absents. La présence des précipitations de grêle ou d’averse de grêle en Tunisie est commandée souvent par un rythme méditerranéen à l’instar des autres formes de précipitations telles que les pluies. Ce phénomène très localisé en Tunisie, concerne particulièrement le nord-ouest et le centre-ouest du pays, abritant les reliefs les plus élevés, demeurant ainsi le siège des trajectoires ouest/est, nord-ouest/sud-est et sud-ouest/nord-est des nuages de grêle. Les dégâts résultant de ce phénomène, qui touchent différents biens de valeur, menacent souvent le domaine d’agriculture qui est le secteur d’activités humaines le plus vital pratiquement en plein printemps et tout l’été ; certaines années, l’agriculteur voit ses récoltes totalement détruites par ce fléau. La région de Kasserine au Centre-ouest de la Tunisie est la région la plus vulnérable et ses vergers de pomme sont les plus touchés. Les pertes se classent le plus souvent très graves mais elles se trouvent d’autant plus prégnantes que les moyens antigrêle et les systèmes d’assurance agricole contre ce fléau ne sont souvent pas utilisés par les agriculteurs. [etc.] / In Tunisia, the random character of hail phenomenon, which has as corollary its extreme variability, in frequency, location and intensity, prevented a continued study of this kind of falls. The lack of long periods of observation and the gaps in the available data level explain the little interest that hail suggested among scientists. Hail falls cause heavy agricultural damage every year which raise different elements at risk especially crops while no efficient mean of protection is widely used. The hail falls in Tunisia follow a Mediterranean rhythm as the other forms of precipitation such as rain. This phenomenon which seems very localized in Tunisia, concerns particularly the northwest and the west central regions of the country, with the highest reliefs of the country. The tracks of hail showers follow west/east, northwest/southeast and southwest/northeast directions. In addition, and despite the damages that result from the phenomena which may touch many valuable sectors, agriculture is the economic sector that more suffers from hail especially when hail falls in spring and in summer. Some years, farmers find their harvests totally destroyed by this plague. The region of Kasserine in the central western of Tunisia is the most vulnerable region and its apple orchards are the most touched. The losses are mostly classified more and more dangerous when anti-hail tools and agricultural insurance systems against this plague are not often used by farmers. [etc.]

abstract: Monsoon hazards routinely affect the community, economy, and environment of the American Southwest. A common link for hazard development during the North American Monsoon concerns the interplay between temperature, moisture, and wind in the vertical atmosphere controlled by an unstable monsoon circulation. This dissertation investigates vertical atmospheric patterns using in-situ sounding data, specifically, 1) environments favorable for severe hail on the Colorado Plateau, 2) significant parameters distinguishing unhealthy versus healthy ozone days in Phoenix, Arizona, and 3) vertical profile alignments associated with distinct ranges in ozone concentrations observed in Phoenix having defined health impacts. The first study (published in the Journal of the Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science) determines significant variables on Flagstaff, Arizona 12Z rawinsonde data (1996-2009) found on severe hail days on the Colorado Plateau. Severe hail is related to greater sub-300 hectopascals (hPa) moisture, a warmer atmospheric column, lighter above surface wind speeds, more southerly to southeasterly oriented winds throughout the vertical (except at the 700 hPa pressure level), and higher geopotential heights. The second study (published in Atmospheric Environment) employs principal component, linear discriminant, and synoptic composite analyses using Phoenix, Arizona rawinsonde data (2006-2016) to identify common monsoon patterns affecting ozone accumulation in the Phoenix metropolitan area. Unhealthy ozone occurs with amplified high-pressure ridging over the Four Corners region, 500 hPa heights often exceeding 5910 meters, surface afternoon temperatures typically over 40°C, lighter wind speeds in the planetary boundary layer under four ms-1, and persistent light easterly flow between 700-500 hPa countering the daytime mountain-valley circulation. The final study (under revision in Weather and Forecasting) assesses composite atmospheric sounding analysis to forecast Air Quality Index ozone classifications of Good, Moderate, and collectively categories exceeding the U.S. EPA 2015 standard. The analysis, using Phoenix 12Z rawinsonde data (2006-2017), identifies the existence of “pollutant dispersion windows” for ozone accumulation and dispersal in Phoenix. Ultimately, monsoon hazards result from a complex and evolving vertical atmosphere. This dissertation demonstrates the viability using available in-situ vertical upper-air data to anticipate recurring atmospheric states contributing to specific hazards. These results will improve monsoon hazard prediction in an effort to protect public and infrastructure. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geography 2019

This research investigates whether Transportation Network Companies (TNCs), such as Uber and Lyft, live up to their stated vision of reducing congestion by complementing transit and reducing car ownership in major cities. The objective of this research study is to answer the question: are TNCs are correlated to traffic congestion in the city of San Francisco? If found to be so, do they increase or decrease traffic congestion for the case of San Francisco? If and how TNC pickups and drop-offs impact traffic congestion within San Francisco? And finally, how does the magnitude of this measured command of TNCs on congestion compare to that caused by pre-existing conventional drivers of traffic and congestion change? Apart from answering these questions, it is also sought to establish a framework to be able to include TNCs, a seemingly fledgling mode of transportation but one that is demonstrably shaping and modifying extant transportation and mode choice trends, as part of the travel demand models estimated by any geographic jurisdiction. Traffic congestion has worsened noticeably in San Francisco and other major cities over the past few years. Part of this change could reasonably be explained by strong economic growth or other standard factors such as road and transit network changes. The sharp increase in travel times and congestion also corresponds to the emergence of TNCs, raising the question of whether the two trends may be related. Existing research has produced conflicting results and been hampered by a lack of data. Using data scraped from the Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) of two TNCs, combined with observed travel time data, this research finds that contrary to their vision, TNCs are the biggest contributor to growing traffic congestion in San Francisco. Between 2010 and 2016, weekday vehicle hours of delay increased by 62%, compared to 22% in a counterfactual 2016 scenario without TNCs. The findings provide insight into expected changes in major cities as TNCs continue to grow, informing decisions about how to integrate TNCs into the existing transportation system. This research also decomposes the contributors to increased congestion in San Francisco between 2010 and 2016, considering contributions from five incremental effects: road and transit network changes, population growth, employment growth, TNC volumes, and the effect of TNC pick-ups and Drop-offs. It is so done through a series of controlled travel demand model runs, supplemented with observed TNC data. The results show that road and transit network changes over this period have only a small effect on congestion, population and employment growth are important contributors, and that TNCs are the biggest contributor to growing congestion over this period, contributing about half of the increase in vehicle hours of delay, and adding to worsening travel time reliability. This research contradicts several studies that suggest TNCs may reduce congestion and adds evidence in support of a recent empirical analysis showing that their net effect is to increase congestion. This research gives transportation planners a better understanding of the causes of growing congestion, allowing them to more effectively craft strategies to mitigate or adapt to it.

Although higher correlation between gauge and radar at hourly or daily accumulations are reported, it is rarely observed at higher time resolution (e.g. 10 -minute). This study investigates six major rainfall events in year 2000 in the greater Winnipeg area with durations varying from four to nine hours. The correlation between gauge and radar measurements of precipitation is found to be only 0.3 at 10-minute resolution and 0.55 at hourly resolution using Marshall-Palmer’s Z-R relationship (Z=200R1.6). The rainfalls are classified into convective and stratiform regions using Steiner et al. (1995)’s algorithm and two different Z-R relationships are tested to minimize the error associated with the variability of drop-size-distribution, however no improvement is observed. The performance of the artificial neural network is explored as a reflectivity-rainfall mapping function. Three different types of neural networks are explored: the back propagation network, the radial basis function network, and the generalized regression neural network. It is observed that the neural network’s performance is better than the Z-R relationship to estimate the rainfall events which was used for training and validation (correlation 0.67). When this network is tested on a new rainfall its performance is found quite similar to that obtained from the Z-R relationship (correlation 0.33). Based on this observation neural network may be recommended as a post-processing tool but may not be very useful for operational purposes - at least as used in this study. Variability in weather and precipitation scenarios affects the radar measurements which apparently makes it impossible for the neural network or the Z-R relationship to show consistent performance at every rainfall event. To account for variability in weather and rainfall scenarios conventional correction schemes for attenuation and hail contamination are applied and a trajectory model is developed to account for rainfall advection due to wind drift. The trajectory model uses velocity obtained from the single-doppler observation. A space-time interpolation technique is applied to generate reflectivity maps at one-minute resolution based on the direction obtained from the correlation based tracking algorithm. The trajectory model uses the generated reflectivity maps having one-minute resolution which help to account for the travel time by the rainfall mass to reach to the ground. It was found that the attenuation correction algorithm adversely increases the reflectivity. This study assumes that the higher reflectivity caused by hail contaminated regions is one reason for the overestimation in the attenuation correction process. It was observed that the hail capping method applied prior to the attenuation correction algorithm helps to improve the situation. A statistical expression to account for radome attenuation is also developed. It is observed that the correlation between the gauge and the radar measurement is 0.81 after applying the various algorithms. Although Marshall-Palmer’s relationship is recommended for stratiform precipitation only, this study found it suitable for both convective and stratiform precipitation when attenuation is properly taken into account. The precipitation processing model developed in this study generates more accurate rainfall estimates at the surface from radar observations and may be a better choice for rainfall-runoff modellers. / February 2006

Although higher correlation between gauge and radar at hourly or daily accumulations are reported, it is rarely observed at higher time resolution (e.g. 10 -minute). This study investigates six major rainfall events in year 2000 in the greater Winnipeg area with durations varying from four to nine hours. The correlation between gauge and radar measurements of precipitation is found to be only 0.3 at 10-minute resolution and 0.55 at hourly resolution using Marshall-Palmer’s Z-R relationship (Z=200R1.6). The rainfalls are classified into convective and stratiform regions using Steiner et al. (1995)’s algorithm and two different Z-R relationships are tested to minimize the error associated with the variability of drop-size-distribution, however no improvement is observed. The performance of the artificial neural network is explored as a reflectivity-rainfall mapping function. Three different types of neural networks are explored: the back propagation network, the radial basis function network, and the generalized regression neural network. It is observed that the neural network’s performance is better than the Z-R relationship to estimate the rainfall events which was used for training and validation (correlation 0.67). When this network is tested on a new rainfall its performance is found quite similar to that obtained from the Z-R relationship (correlation 0.33). Based on this observation neural network may be recommended as a post-processing tool but may not be very useful for operational purposes - at least as used in this study. Variability in weather and precipitation scenarios affects the radar measurements which apparently makes it impossible for the neural network or the Z-R relationship to show consistent performance at every rainfall event. To account for variability in weather and rainfall scenarios conventional correction schemes for attenuation and hail contamination are applied and a trajectory model is developed to account for rainfall advection due to wind drift. The trajectory model uses velocity obtained from the single-doppler observation. A space-time interpolation technique is applied to generate reflectivity maps at one-minute resolution based on the direction obtained from the correlation based tracking algorithm. The trajectory model uses the generated reflectivity maps having one-minute resolution which help to account for the travel time by the rainfall mass to reach to the ground. It was found that the attenuation correction algorithm adversely increases the reflectivity. This study assumes that the higher reflectivity caused by hail contaminated regions is one reason for the overestimation in the attenuation correction process. It was observed that the hail capping method applied prior to the attenuation correction algorithm helps to improve the situation. A statistical expression to account for radome attenuation is also developed. It is observed that the correlation between the gauge and the radar measurement is 0.81 after applying the various algorithms. Although Marshall-Palmer’s relationship is recommended for stratiform precipitation only, this study found it suitable for both convective and stratiform precipitation when attenuation is properly taken into account. The precipitation processing model developed in this study generates more accurate rainfall estimates at the surface from radar observations and may be a better choice for rainfall-runoff modellers.

Although higher correlation between gauge and radar at hourly or daily accumulations are reported, it is rarely observed at higher time resolution (e.g. 10 -minute). This study investigates six major rainfall events in year 2000 in the greater Winnipeg area with durations varying from four to nine hours. The correlation between gauge and radar measurements of precipitation is found to be only 0.3 at 10-minute resolution and 0.55 at hourly resolution using Marshall-Palmer’s Z-R relationship (Z=200R1.6). The rainfalls are classified into convective and stratiform regions using Steiner et al. (1995)’s algorithm and two different Z-R relationships are tested to minimize the error associated with the variability of drop-size-distribution, however no improvement is observed. The performance of the artificial neural network is explored as a reflectivity-rainfall mapping function. Three different types of neural networks are explored: the back propagation network, the radial basis function network, and the generalized regression neural network. It is observed that the neural network’s performance is better than the Z-R relationship to estimate the rainfall events which was used for training and validation (correlation 0.67). When this network is tested on a new rainfall its performance is found quite similar to that obtained from the Z-R relationship (correlation 0.33). Based on this observation neural network may be recommended as a post-processing tool but may not be very useful for operational purposes - at least as used in this study. Variability in weather and precipitation scenarios affects the radar measurements which apparently makes it impossible for the neural network or the Z-R relationship to show consistent performance at every rainfall event. To account for variability in weather and rainfall scenarios conventional correction schemes for attenuation and hail contamination are applied and a trajectory model is developed to account for rainfall advection due to wind drift. The trajectory model uses velocity obtained from the single-doppler observation. A space-time interpolation technique is applied to generate reflectivity maps at one-minute resolution based on the direction obtained from the correlation based tracking algorithm. The trajectory model uses the generated reflectivity maps having one-minute resolution which help to account for the travel time by the rainfall mass to reach to the ground. It was found that the attenuation correction algorithm adversely increases the reflectivity. This study assumes that the higher reflectivity caused by hail contaminated regions is one reason for the overestimation in the attenuation correction process. It was observed that the hail capping method applied prior to the attenuation correction algorithm helps to improve the situation. A statistical expression to account for radome attenuation is also developed. It is observed that the correlation between the gauge and the radar measurement is 0.81 after applying the various algorithms. Although Marshall-Palmer’s relationship is recommended for stratiform precipitation only, this study found it suitable for both convective and stratiform precipitation when attenuation is properly taken into account. The precipitation processing model developed in this study generates more accurate rainfall estimates at the surface from radar observations and may be a better choice for rainfall-runoff modellers.

In den sächsischen Versuchsanlagen Dresden-Pillnitz und Sornzig-Ablaß wurden die Auswirkungen von schwarzen, grauen und weißen Hagelnetzen auf Ertrag und Fruchtqualität von Tafeläpfeln untersucht. Für den Apfelanbau in Sachsen werden weiße und graue Hagelnetze empfohlen. Ab Erträgen von 50 t/ha (60 % Handelsklasse I) ist der Anbau unter Hagelnetzen wirtschaftlich.

abstract: The performance of the Alpha Sprayed Polyurethane Foam (SPF) roofing system is perceived as not an economical option when compared to a 20-year modified bitumen roofing system. Today, the majority of roofs are being replaced, rather than newly installed. The coating manufacturer, Neogard, implemented the Alpha roofing program to identify the best contractors in the industry and to measure their roof performance. The Alpha roof system has shown consistent high performance on over 230 million square feet of surveyed roof. The author proposes to identify if the Alpha roof system is renewable, has proven performance that competes with the traditional modified roofing system, and is a more economical option by evaluating an Alpha roof system installation and the performance of a 29-year-old Alpha roof system. The Dallas Independent School District utilized the Alpha program for William Lipscomb Elementary School in 2016. Dallas Fort Worth Urethane installed the Alpha SPF roof system with high customer satisfaction ratings. This roofing installation showed the value of the Alpha roof system by saving over 20% on costs for the installation and will save approximately 69% of costs on the recoating of the roof in 20 years. The Casa View Elementary School roof system was installed with a Neogard Permathane roof system in 1987. This roof was hail tested with ten drops from 17 feet 9 inches of 1-3/4-inch steel ball (9 out of 10 passed) and four drops from 17 feet 9 inches with a 3-inch diameter steel ball (2 out of 4 passed). The analysis of the passing and failing core samples show that the thickness of the top and base Alpha SPF coating is one of the major differences in a roof passing or failing the FM-SH hail test. Over the 40-year service life, the main difference of purchasing a 61,000 square feet Alpha SPF roof versus modified bitumen roof are savings of approximately $1,067,500. Past hail tests on Alpha SPF roof systems show its cost effectiveness with high customer satisfaction (9.8 out of 10), an over 40-year service life after a $6.00/SF recoat and savings of over $1M for DISD. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Construction 2017

In den sächsischen Versuchsanlagen Dresden-Pillnitz und Sornzig-Ablaß wurden die Auswirkungen von schwarzen, grauen und weißen Hagelnetzen auf Ertrag und Fruchtqualität von Tafeläpfeln untersucht. Für den Apfelanbau in Sachsen werden weiße und graue Hagelnetze empfohlen. Ab Erträgen von 50 t/ha (60 % Handelsklasse I) ist der Anbau unter Hagelnetzen wirtschaftlich.