La relation entre capital humain et employabilité bien que clairement démontré d'un point de vue théorique n'est cependant pas toujours vérifiée de façon empirique. On peut ainsi constater un paradoxe de l’éducation dans les pays MENA où le taux de chômage augmente avec le diplôme et où les taux d'activité et plus particulièrement les taux d'activité des femmes sont faibles. Nous cherchons donc, à travers trois études empiriques, à mettre en évidence les éléments pouvant contrarier cette relation entre accumulation du capital humain et employabilité. Nous portons tout d'abord notre attention sur la Tunisie et le Maroc où le taux de chômage des diplômés du supérieur est particulièrement important. Nous menons dans un premier temps une analyse macroéconomique concernant ces pays avant de mener une analyse microéconomique en nous focalisant sur la région de Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz où nous analysons la relation entre le niveau d’éducation et l’accès à un emploi rémunéré. Notre seconde étude se positionne sur le marché du travail français où nous analysons l’accès à l’emploi ainsi que le différentiel salarial afin de déterminer si l’existence de « discriminations » peut contrarier la relation entre capital humain et employabilité. Enfin, notre troisième étude complète notre précédente approche concernant l’accès à l’emploi en prenant en compte des parcours scolaires des jeunes et plus seulement de plus haut diplôme obtenu. / The relationship between human capital and employability is clearly demonstrated by the review of the theoretical literature however, not always verified empirically. We can thus see a paradox of education in MENA countries where the unemployment rate increases with the degree and where participation rates and especially female activity rates are low. So we’re looking through three empirical studies to bring out the elements that can upset the relationship between accumulation of human capital and employability. First we bring your attention to Tunisia and Morocco where university graduates unemployment rate is particularly important. We lead initially macroeconomic analysis for these countries before leading a microeconomic analysis by focusing on the region of Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz where we analyze the relationship between the level of education and access to paid employment. Our second study is positioned on the French labor market where we analyze the access of employment and the wage differential to determine whether the existence of “discriminations” can upset the relationship between human capital and employability. Finally, our third full study our previous approach regarding access to employment, taking into account the educational pathways of young people and not the highest degree obtained

Cette thèse porte sur une étude<br />analytique et probabiliste des théories de Heckman--Opdam et des<br />immeubles affines de type $\tilde{A}_r$. On étudie aussi la<br />frontière de Poisson des matrices triangulaires inversibles<br />rationnelles.<br /><br />Un de nos principaux résultats est l'obtention de nouvelles<br />estimations des fonctions hypergéométriques de Heckman--Opdam. Nos<br />preuves sont relativement plus simples que dans le cas particulier<br />des espaces symétriques $G/K$. Par exemple pour les estimations de<br />base des fonctions sphériques, obtenues par Harish-Chandra, ou<br />Gangolli et Varadarajan, ainsi que pour les estimations récentes<br />de la fonction sphérique élémentaire $\phi_0$ par Anker, Bougerol<br />et Jeulin.<br /><br />Un des autres principaux résultats est l'estimation du noyau de la<br />chaleur associé à un certain laplacien combinatoire sur un<br />immeuble affine de type $\tilde{A}_r$.

No description available.

De façon générale, cette thèse s'intéresse aux liens entre théorie des représentations et probabilités. Elle se subdivise en principalement trois parties. Dans un premier volet plutôt algébrique, nous construisons un modèle de chemins pour les cristaux géométriques de Berenstein et Kazhdan, pour un groupe de Lie complexe semi-simple. Il s'agira pour l'essentiel de décrire la structure algébrique, ses morphismes naturels et ses paramétrisations. La théorie de la totale positivité y jouera un role particulièrement important. Ensuite, nous avons choisi d'anticiper sur les résultats probabilistes et d'exhiber une mesure canonique sur les cristaux géométriques. Celle-ci utilise comme ingrédients le superpotentiel de variété drapeau, et une mesure invariante sous les actions cristallines. La mesure image par l'application poids joue le role de mesure de Duistermaat-Heckman. Sa transformée de Laplace définit les fonctions de Whittaker, fournissant une formule intégrale particulièrement intéressante pour tous les groupes de Lie. Il apparait alors clairement que les fonctions de Whittaker sont aux cristaux géométriques, ce que les caractères sont aux cristaux combinatoires classiques. La règle de Littlewood-Richardson est aussi exposée. Enfin nous présentons l'approche probabiliste permettant de trouver la mesure canonique. Elle repose sur l'idée fondamentale que la mesure de Wiener induira la bonne mesure sur les structures algébriques du modèle de chemins. Dans une dernière partie, nous démontrons comment notre modèle géométrique dégénère en le modèle de Littelmann continu classique, pour retrouver des résultats connus. Par exemple, la mesure canonique sur un cristal géométrique de plus haut poids dégénère en une mesure uniforme sur un polytope, et retrouve les paramétrisations des cristaux continus.

There are many different types of non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) available in the United States today compared to a decade ago. Additionally, the needs of beverage consumers have evolved over the years centering attention on functionality and health dimensions. These trends in volume of consumption are a testament to the growth in the NAB industry. Our study pertains to ten NAB categories. We developed and employed a unique cross-sectional and time-series data set based on Nielsen Homescan data associated with household purchases of NAB from 1998 through 2003. First, we considered demographic and economic profiling of the consumption of NAB in a two-stage model. Race, region, age and presence of children and gender of household head were the most important factors affecting the choice and level of consumption. Second, we used expectation-prediction success tables, calibration, resolution, the Brier score and the Yates partition of the Brier score to measure the accuracy of predictions generated from qualitative choice models used to model the purchase decision of NAB by U.S. households. The Yates partition of the Brier score outperformed all other measures. Third, we modeled demand interrelationships, dynamics and habits of NAB consumption estimating own-price, cross-price and expenditure elasticities. The Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, the synthetic Barten model and the State Adjustment Model were used. Soft drinks were substitutes and fruit juices were complements for most of non-alcoholic beverages. Investigation of a proposed tax on sugar-sweetened beverages revealed the importance of centering attention not only to direct effects but also to indirect effects of taxes on beverage consumption. Finally, we investigated factors affecting nutritional contributions derived from consumption of NAB. Also, we ascertained the impact of the USDA year 2000 Dietary Guidelines for Americans associated with the consumption of NAB. Significant factors affecting caloric and nutrient intake from NAB were price, employment status of household head, region, race, presence of children and the gender of household food manager. Furthermore, we found that USDA nutrition intervention program was successful in reducing caloric and caffeine intake from consumption of NAB. The away-from-home intake of beverages and potential impacts of NAB advertising are not captured in our work. In future work, we plan to address these limitations.

本文以2003到2006年美國上市之不動產投資信託（REITs）的資產稅賦遞延交換做研究，並用資產出售交易作為比較，觀察稅賦遞延交換對股票報酬和股利的影響，研究結果發現稅賦遞延交換對於股票報酬有負的宣告效果，然而出售資產的交易有正的且顯著的宣告效果，由於美國REITs基於稅法規定，作為免稅體，每年要以股利的形式分配百分之九十的盈餘給股東，稅賦遞延交換並不能像資產出售交易一樣帶來現金流入，因此對於未來股東的股利所得有所影響，股東對於股票報酬沒有正向的反應，但是股東會考慮稅賦遞延交換會帶來資產重配置的效率，再加上REITs通常會支付比規定還要多的股利，因此稅賦遞延交換的對於股票報酬的負影響會因此而減弱，進一步針對交易方式還有REITs股利分配進行研究，研究的結果支持稅賦遞延交換後的股利比起直接出售交易後所發放的股利還要少。本文除了研究股東對於交易宣告的反應之外，也綜觀不同資產交易方式的現金流量和REITs股利的關連性，藉此瞭解影響REITs選擇交易方式的內涵因素，以及對股票報酬和股利的影響。 / This research examines the tax deferred exchanges made by public U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) over 2003-2006 as well as the transactions of sell-off. The purpose of this study attempts to explore the effects of tax deferred exchange on stock returns and dividend distribution. Result of this study shows that announcement effect of tax deferred exchange is negative in stock value. On the contrary, the relationship between sell-offs and stock value is significantly positive. The reason to explain the difference on announcement effect between two types of property transaction is the specific taxable earning distribution restriction on REITs. U.S REITs have to pay out 90 % of taxable earnings in the form of dividends to their shareholders to exempt from tax. As a result, tax deferred exchange doesn’t bring cash inflow contributing to dividend increase and then shareholders react a lower stock return on tax deferred exchange than on sell-offs. However, the negative effect is weakened by the efficiency of asset reallocation and the regular dividend distribution over tax law restriction. In the analysis of dividend payment, the result of dividend examination supports the hypothesis that tax deferred exchange without cash inflow make dividend fewer than sell-offs. This study may be of importance in explaining the reaction of shareholders on tax deferred exchange of REITs’ property, as well as in providing shareholders with a better understanding of the relationship between cash flow and dividend distribution in order to clarify the cause that affect REITs to utilize different types of transaction and the factors that affect stock return and dividend.

本論文主要由三大研究主題組合而成：第一個主題是依照中國金融體系的現況，針對國有銀行、政策性銀行、股份制商業銀行及城市商業銀行等四種不同類型銀行的獲利績效進行比較實證研究。其中的股份制商銀與城市銀行，其資本組成除少數仍有國務院持股（即中央政府持股）外，股東成員擴及地方政府、國有企業及民間企業，股本結構明顯較國有商業銀行及政策銀行多元化。不同的股本結構，尤其是官股比例（政府持股比例）是否對各家銀行的獲利能力產生影響，是本文主要研究興趣所在。本文採用Bankscope資料庫，涵蓋1997至2004年中國大陸49家銀行的財務及股東資料。結果發現：銀行股權結構中，中央政府持股比例越高，銀行獲利表現越差，地方政府持股的影響則較不明顯；而四類銀行中，股份制商銀與城市商銀的表現遠優於國有銀行及政策銀行。但1999年以後中國國有銀行的財務整頓措施的確使得國有銀行的相對表現有所提升。 鑑於外商銀行大舉進入中國金融市場，勢必對中國銀行帶來更多的競爭壓力，本論文第二個研究主題進一步將研究範圍擴及至世界資產排名前一百大的銀行，企圖比較中國銀行與世界百大銀行經營績效的差異。在這個主題中，延續前一主題「股權結構」的重要性，除了官股比例，同時考慮外資持股及本國人持股，分析三類持股對績效的影響，又鑑於總體面的政府治理因素可能對股權與銀行績效的關係產生變化，本研究也將政府治理變數，包括文獻中經常提到的證券市場內線交易情況、政府政策透明度及政府貪污情況等因素納入考量，比較這些因素對中國銀行與百大銀行影響有何差異。實證結果如下：對中國銀行及世界百大銀行而言，政府持股對銀行獲利的影響是負向的，而外資持股的影響則恰相反，開放程度愈高、銀行自由度愈高越有利於銀行績效提升。中國政府越無貪污情況時，越有助於外資持股對銀行績效的正向影響。對世界百大銀行而言，政府越無貪污情況時，越有助於外資持股對銀行績效的正向影響。而政府政策透明度越高，越有助於政府持股與本國人持股的正向影響。 第三個主題探討我國上市櫃公司不同的對外與大陸投資決策對母公司獲利性的影響。本文將投資決策對公司獲利的影響視為內生，也就是投資決策受公司特性因素的影響。同時，我們進一步假設公司的投資決策是分兩階段完成，第一步會先決定是否進行海外投資，一旦確定後，再決定是否赴大陸投資。因為有兩層的投資決策，本文以延伸的Heckman’s Two Stage Method進行估計。 實證結果顯示，在投資決策的影響因素方面，對第一層赴海外投資而言，規模愈大、國際化程度愈高、愈勞力密集的公司愈傾向赴海外投資；對第二層赴大陸投資的決策，影響因素也類似，只是公司規模不再是重要影響因素。至於獲利的影響因素方面，第一類「赴大陸投資的公司」與第二類「未赴大陸但赴其他國家投資的公司」的利潤型態較類似，長期負債對獲利都有負向顯著影響，總資產也傾向負向影響，至於第三類「未從事任何海外與大陸投資公司」的利潤型態則與前兩類不同，總資產與研發支出都呈現顯著負向影響。而三類公司的績效比較部分，第一類公司的平均預期資產報酬率雖若高於第二類，第二類公司又高於第三類公司，但三類公司兩兩之間平均預期資產報酬率的差距並未達統計上的顯著性。 / This dissertation contains three main parts. The first part studies the effects of government owned share on Chinese banks’ performance. After a series of financial reforms in the 1990s, joint stock commercial banks and city commercial banks started to boom and play an increasingly important role in China’s banking industry which had previously been monopolized by four state-owned commercial banks. These two new bank-types are considerably more diversified in that the primary shareholders include the central government, local governments, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, not just the central government. Using 49 Chinese banks’ financial data retrieved from Bankscope, this part examines the effect of different ownership structures, in general, and government-owned-shares, central vs. local, in particular, affect the profitability and risk of banks in China. It also compares the profitability of four types of banks, namely state-owned banks, policy banks, joint-stock commercial banks and city commercial banks. We conclude that, without equivocation, the higher the ratio of state-owned shares is, the worse is the profitability of the bank. And we also note the profitability of joint-stock commercial banks and city commercial banks is much better than that of state-owned and policy banks. In light of the ever-growing foreign competition facing Chinese banking industry, the second part expands the sample banks to World’s top 100 banks and studies the differences between Chinese banks and foreign banks from the respects of ownership structure, government governance and bank regulations. Our empirical results reveal that for both Chinese banks and top 100 banks, government owned share has a negative effect on banks’ profitability, while foreign owned share has an opposite effect. For both of them, the more the foreign institutions have access to the banking market and the more freedom the banking industry enjoys, the better the bank performs. For Chinese banks, lesser corruption helps strengthen foreign share’s positive effect on banks’ performance. Furthermore, higher transparency would increase the positive effect of government owned share and domestic owned share. The third part studies the profitability of Taiwan’s listed companies with and without investment in China. Unlike past studies which deal with the decision of investment in overseas and China as exogenous, the decision is endogenous in this paper. That is, the decision making is based on the firm’s characteristic factors. We further assume that there are two hierarchy decisions made by firms when they decide in investing in overseas and China. The first decision is whether it should invest overseas. Once the first decision is made, the next one is whether a firm should invest in China. This two decision model, which allows us to extend Heckman’s two-step method, is referred to as an extended-Heckman method in this paper. Our empirical results regarding the determinants of investing overseas and China are as follows. With respect to the investment in overseas, firm size and export ratio show positive influence on the decision of investment, while capital labor ratio shows negative effect. Next, with respect to the investment in China, determinants are similar except that firm size is no longer significant. Our results regarding the profit performance reveal that for ‘the firms with investment in China’ and ‘the firms without investing in China, only investing other countries’, long term liability ratio has a significantly negative impact on profitability, whereas total asset, R&D expenditure show a negative effect on profitability for ‘the firms without investing overseas, nor investing in China’. As for the performance comparison among firms of these three investment types, the differences are insignificant. This result implies that there are still considerable individual differences among the firms of the same investment type.

This dissertation is composed of three articles describing novel approaches for analysis and modeling using multivariate skew-normal and skew-t distributions in econometrics and environmetrics. In the first article we introduce the Heckman selection-t model. Sample selection arises often as a result of the partial observability of the outcome of interest in a study. In the presence of sample selection, the observed data do not represent a random sample from the population, even after controlling for explanatory variables. Heckman introduced a sample-selection model to analyze such data and proposed a full maximum likelihood estimation method under the assumption of normality. The method was criticized in the literature because of its sensitivity to the normality assumption. In practice, data, such as income or expenditure data, often violate the normality assumption because of heavier tails. We first establish a new link between sample-selection models and recently studied families of extended skew-elliptical distributions. This then allows us to introduce a selection-t model, which models the error distribution using a Student’s t distribution. We study its properties and investigate the finite-sample performance of the maximum likelihood estimators for this model. We compare the performance of the selection-t model to the Heckman selection model and apply it to analyze ambulatory expenditures. In the second article we introduce a family of multivariate log-skew-elliptical distributions, extending the list of multivariate distributions with positive support. We investigate their probabilistic properties such as stochastic representations, marginal and conditional distributions, and existence of moments, as well as inferential properties. We demonstrate, for example, that as for the log-t distribution, the positive moments of the log-skew-t distribution do not exist. Our emphasis is on two special cases, the log-skew-normal and log-skew-t distributions, which we use to analyze U.S. precipitation data. Many commonly used statistical methods assume that data are normally distributed. This assumption is often violated in practice which prompted the development of more flexible distributions. In the third article we describe two such multivariate distributions, the skew-normal and the skew-t, and present commands for fitting univariate and multivariate skew-normal and skew-t regressions in the statistical software package Stata.

La tesis se enmarca en el análisis microeconométrico de la demanda turística de los hogares españoles. Su objetivo general es estudiar los determinantes que influyen en la decisión de consumo turístico, frecuencia de consumo y gasto de los hogares en servicios turísticos. En el análisis de todas las decisiones intervienen variables no estrictamente económicas específicas de cada hogar (número de miembros, existencia de niños y otras variable ligadas al ciclo de vida del hogar) y de sus miembros (edad, nivel educativo, y otras variable ligadas al momento vital por el que atraviesan). Además, se incorporan variables económicas o ligadas a la situación económica del hogar. De esta manera se puede realizar un análisis sobre las diferentes decisiones de consumo turístico de los hogares y vincularlas a sus preferencias, restricciones temporales, restricciones monetarias o diferentes circunstancias condicionadas a su momento vital. Se hace especial referencia a los efectos de la crisis económica mundial y el desempleo de los miembros del hogar sobre su gasto turístico efectivo. Este trabajo está estructurado en cuatro capítulos. En el primer capítulo se aborda el estudio de las restricciones a las que hacen frente los hogares españoles a la hora de viajar. Para ello, se estudia la importancia que tiene la situación económica del hogar como barrera al consumo turístico. Los hogares analizados provienen de la muestra española del año 2000 de la encuesta del Panel de Hogares de la Comunidad Europea (PHOGUE). En el segundo capítulo se examina la frecuencia de participación turística mediante la explotación de los microdatos de la Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares (EPF) durante el periodo 1999-2005. Además de la renta disponible y las variables del hogar asociadas a su situación económica, el tiempo libre, marcado por la situación laboral del sustentador familiar, y otros factores del hogar y sus miembros se incluye una variable temporal que permita describir la evolución de la frecuencia en el periodo considerado. En el tercer capítulo se examinan las decisiones de participación y gasto turístico de los hogares españoles en un periodo caracterizado por un cambio en el ciclo económico. Se emplean microdatos de la Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares (EPF) de los años 2006 a 2010, lo que permite analizar las consecuencias que la crisis económica y el desempleo tienen sobre las decisiones de consumo turístico de los hogares. Finalmente, el cuarto capítulo tiene como principal objetivo la clasificación de los hogares en función de sus preferencias de consumo, distinguiendo entre demandantes de baja intensidad (nulo o muy escaso gasto turístico), intensidad media (gasto turístico intermedio) y alta intensidad (gasto turístico elevado). Así, se pretende ofrecer una alternativa a la modelización del gasto turístico teniendo en cuenta, de manera explícita, las preferencias personales ya que estas juegan un papel fundamental en la demanda turística como respuesta a un conjunto de características sociodemográficas y económicas. Los microdatos empleados pertenecen a la Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares (EPF) de los años 2006 a 2010. Los ingresos son la variable que mayor poder explicativo tiene sobre la demanda turística. Aún así, las variaciones en el nivel de renta no presentan efectos uniformes en la variación del consumo turístico de los diferentes hogares. Los resultados obtenidos ponen de manifiesto la existencia de otros factores sociodemográficos que pueden compensar o restringir el consumo turístico efectivo. Las variaciones de los ingresos en los hogares, debidos a factores externos como la crisis o el desempleo, o a otros factores específicos del hogar y de sus miembros, no tienen el mismo efecto en las variaciones de la demanda turística final. Para el análisis de la demanda turística es necesario utilizar herramientas de estimación que permitan recoger la heterogeneidad de los consumidores. De esta manera, el efecto de los ingresos o de la situación económica de un hogar puede verse compensado por la presencia de otras variables ya sean preferencias o determinantes sociodemográficos. En cuanto a la novedad de introducir el efecto de la crisis, los resultados obtenidos ponen de manifiesto que ante ésta, los hogares modifican parcialmente sus criterios de decisión. En un entorno social de crisis económica los hogares otorgan a los ingresos un papel más conservador en la decisión de participación; no obstante, una vez tomada esa decisión, el gasto efectivo es más sensible al nivel de ingresos del hogar. Los resultados obtenidos revelan la conveniencia de incluir información sobre la situación laboral del sustentador principal, y si cabe, del resto de miembros en las decisiones de participación, frecuencia de viaje y gasto turístico. En España, dónde su economía se caracteriza por las elevadas tasas de desempleo y donde el ciclo económico afecta a la permanencia de empleo de los individuos, esta consideración ayuda a obtener una imagen más real sobre el comportamiento del hogar. Como se observa en los resultados el desempleo tiene un efecto negativo en las decisiones de consumo turístico que es coherente con la literatura revisada. El seguimiento y análisis de la demanda turística debe realizarse en un entorno de constantes cambios y, en la actualidad, con perspectivas de estancamiento. La tesis contribuye al análisis de la demanda turística señalando la heterogeneidad de comportamiento y preferencias de los consumidores, para los que el nivel de ingresos es sólo un factor en el conjunto de determinantes económicos y sociodemográficos que afectan a sus decisiones de consumo.