The "global" financial crisis (GFC) emerged during 2008 and it was mainly triggered by the sub-prime mortgage crisis (SMC) in the United States of America. The main aims of this thesis is to conduct an econometric analysis of the financial crisis and household savings in South Africa and also to provide a rationale that will facilitate a policy attention on Domestic Resource Mobilisation (DRM) through household savings. The study uses quarterly time series data for the period 199401 to 201102 obtained on-line from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). The research is based on the Keynesian saving function, which is a complement of the consumption function. The model will be estimated by using a cointegrating vector autoregressive (CVAR) framework, which allows for endogeneity of the regressors. To check robustness on the cointegration results, the study employs the second empirical technique based on Generalized Impulse Response Function (GIRF) analysis and Variance Decomposition. The regression equation of household savings is expressed as a function of household disposable income, household debt to disposable income, real GOP, interest rate, inflation rate and foreign savings. The variables are tested for the presence of a unit root by the application of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (AOF), Phillips-Perron (PP) Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) tests. The findings of the study are that all variables have unit roots. The cointegration model emphasises the presence of a long run equilibrium relationship between dependent and independent variables. The CVAR reveals the short run of the dynamic household savings model. Taking this into consideration, the study concludes that household debt has a huge influence on the level of household savings. The econometric analysis also revealed that household savings in South Africa actually improved during the period associated with the GFC. It could be postulated that South African households responded to their deteriorating financial situations by reducing their average spending and increasing their savings. Variance decomposition analysis revealed that 'own shocks' constitute the predominant source of variations in household saving therefore household savings can be explained by the disturbances in macroeconomic variables in the study. The study recommends the promotion of household savings and economic growth in order to reduce the dependence of South Africa on foreign savings. DRM is therefore enhanced by a higher level of household savings, which can facilitate higher levels of investment and economic growth. / Thesis (PhD (Economics) North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, 2012

In the 1950s and 1960s, after gaining independence from their colonial powers, most developing countries adopted “market substitution” as their policy for economic development and growth. In essence, this was an industrialisation strategy followed by these developing economies to concentrate on home-grown products and nurture their expertise in order to reach the status of industrialised nations. However, by the end of 1970s, many developing countries began to realize the failures of their inward-looking approach to industrialization when their economies were mired with high unemployment, inflation and chronic external debt. By the middle of 1980s, many of these countries began to change their policies and reorient themselves into market economies. However, with financial crises and economic recessions that resulted from pursuing market driven liberalization policies, these economies began to realize the flaws of the market driven approach to industrialization. Nevertheless, they continued with the liberalised policies incorporating market as well as non-market (institutional) reforms, aimed at strengthening regulation, improving corporate governance and curbing corruption to avoid the destabilising consequences of financial liberalization. The evolving economic policies that influenced financial development and growth in developing economies came about with the objective of enhancing household and private sector‘s savings. These policies have been designed to influence financial development and economic growth (which can impact upon private savings) in two different ways: (i) by increasing saving due to households taking precautionary motives, or (ii) negatively by spending more due to increase in overall expenditures. Theoretically, the combined effect on private saving is therefore ambiguous. The purpose of this thesis is to assess empirically the importance of various economic factors influencing private sector savings in emerging market economies. In addition, the influence of non-market institutional factors on savings is explored from the incorporation of newly institutional measures into these countries economic policies. Several econometric methodologies are employed with empirical analysis conducted on data for twenty emerging economies across three primary regions in the world, i.e. Asia Pacific, Middle East and North African (MENA), and South America. The twenty countries also include other emerging economies that are proximate to MENA regions such as South Africa, Turkey and Israel. In general, the findings based on SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression) methodology show that per capita growth, financial development, government savings, and trade openness have a positive impact on private savings; while youth and old dependency-age groups, real interest rate, and urban growth have a negative effect on private savings. In general, most of these results are consistent with previous studies for other countries. Additionally, causality tests are conducted using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology as well as Pedroni and Johansen cointegration methods within the Vector Error Correction (VEC) model to determine both short-term and long-term causality effects between financial development and economic growth. The results indicate that in the long run financial development has a causal effect on growth; however, in the short run the results are quite mixed. For example, the short run result using the VAR method shows that income growth has Granger causality effect on financial development, but the F-test result for the VEC method shows evidence of bivariate causality. The long-term causality results also confirm the finding of previous research about the importance of developing financial sector in order to spur the country‘s economic growth. The final empirical investigation is to conduct panel data regression to test the impact of non-market institutions on private savings. The main result here is that sound institutional factors based on respect for property rights (e.g. bureaucracy, accountability and regulation quality) have a positive effect on aggregate private savings. Furthermore, political stability is found to have a negative impact on savings while efficient bureaucracy has a positive impact on savings. It can be construed that with an uncertain political environment, i.e. diminishing political stability, the public in general would save more than spend. On the other hand, efficient bureaucracy would boost public confidence about the country‘s governance, which can lead to increased overall savings by the public.

Real estate remains to be a major component of wealth for households as the market value of houses continues to rise noticeably again, as before the global recession 2007. Understanding households’ responses to changes of house prices and interest rates is important as fluctuations of these kind affect their preferences of saving. This thesis examines the impact of house price- and interest rate changes on household savings with the usage of secondary panel data from seven European countries. Providing a definite estimation of the interest elasticity of saving for households is not conceivable with any confidence considering the difficulties in estimating differential behavior. In accordance to previous studies the result of house prices is significant negative regarding household savings. However, the repo rate contradicts earlier results with a significant negative correlation toward household savings indicating an increased confidence due to a behavioral shift. In conclusion, this study shows that internal effects are of great importance as several factors suffer from high internal impact.

It is a conventional wisdom that since the start of the Chinese economic reform in 1978, the domestic saving structure in China has changed significantly. Previous studies of household saving in China (for example: Qian, 1988, Feltenstein et al, 1990, and Wakabayashi and Mackellar, 1999) have usually relied upon the Keynesian absolute-income hypothesis, Duesenberry's relative-income hypothesis, and Friedman's permanent-income hypothesis. This thesis uses the Modigliani-Brumberg life-cycle hypothesis to examine the determinants of household saving behavior in the Peoples' Republic of China during the period 1978 to 2003. The research uses modern cointegration techniques to examine the impact on saving rates of economic growth, age dependency, wealth, the real interest rate, social security payments and unemployment (as a proxy for income uncertainty). Autoregressive distributed lag models are constructed and tested. The results find that economic growth, the real interest rate and social security payments have the expected effect with significant parameters; age dependency has the expected sign but in one model is not statistically significant; and that unemployment is not significant. The most surprising result is that increases in household wealth are associated with increased saving rates, which may help explain very high economic growth rates in China post 1978.

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This thesis investigates which factors affecting savings behavior by using a fixed effect regression model. To see what affects the household savings rate the following independent variables is considered: Natural logarithm of trend per capita income, natural logarithm of deviation from trend per capita income, growth of disposable income, real interest rate, inflation, wealth in relation to household disposable income, foreign savings in relation to disposable income, dependency ratio and human development index. To see whether changes of human development within a county impacts the household´s savings ratio this variables was included in a separate regression. To avoid possible biasedness from ordinary least square, a panel data technique called fixed effect regression model is used. The investigated time period is between year 1999 and 2016 and to make a restriction, variables from 25 developed countries were studied. The involved economic theories in this work are Keynesianism, permanent income hypothesis and the savings theory behind Maslow´s behavioral pyramid. The result made by using this study is that growth in income and foreign savings in relation to disposable income is insignificant and can´t be used in explaining the differences between household´s savings. Human development index within a country has a negative effect on the savings ratio but a conclusion regarding whether changes in HDI´s does affect savings can´t be made and more research within that field is needed.

This Master's thesis focuses on Czech household savings. It describes the most important traditional and alternative financial products used by Czech households. Next it reveals the reasons why Czech households are so conservative in their attitude to their financial means in comparison with other European countries. In the last part of this thesis the most important determinants of household savings are identified and with the help of correlation coefficient the intensity of correlation between gross household savings and their determinants is explored.

Cette thèse se compose de trois essais sur l’éducation et la cohésion sociale dans les pays en développement, et plus particulièrement en Égypte et en Indonésie. Le premier chapitre analyse les comportements des ménages en Égypte, notamment l’investissement pour l’éducation et la santé, suite à la révolution de 2011, que nous interprétons ici comme un environnement instable. Pour étudier les effets du déclenchement de la révolution Égyptienne, nous combinons l’enquête représentative des ménages avec un enregistrement statistique unique de toutes les personnes arrêtées, blessées ou tuées lors des manifestations politiques dans le pays. Nos résultats montrent que les ménages adaptent considérablement leur comportement dans un contexte politique instable. Le deuxième chapitre analyse les conséquences des tremblements de terre sur l’éducation et les mesures de santé des enfants en Indonésie. Nous constatons que les résultats en matière d’éducation et de santé des enfants sont négativement affectées lorsqu’un ménage subit un tremblement de terre, avec une certaine hétérogénéité selon l’âge et le sexe de l’enfant. Le troisième chapitre analyse les effets du favoritisme ethnique dans l’attribution des transferts gouvernementaux aux ménages suite à une catastrophe naturelle Les résultats suggèrent que bien que tous les ménages d’un même village soient affectées, les ménages les plus susceptibles de recevoir des transferts gouvernementaux sont ceux qui partagent la même origine ethnique que le leader de la communauté. Mes conclusions démontrent également que dans les villages ou le favoritisme ethnique est répandu, la confiance entre groupes ethniques s’est réduite entre 2007 et 2014. / This thesis is a collection of three independent essays in empirical development economics, with a particular focus on the study of mechanisms that impact education and social cohesion in Egypt and Indonesia. The first chapter analyses the effects of the Egyptian Revolution on education and health spendings as well as savings. We construct a new measure of revolution intensity and match a representative household panel survey data with a unique statistical record that documents the number of arrested, injured and deaths during the uprisings in Egypt. We find that households significantly adapt their behaviour in a politically unstable environment. The second chapter analyses the short and long-term effects of earthquakes on children’s education and health outcomes. Findings rely on individual-level panel data from large-scale household surveys combined with precise measures of local ground tremors obtained from a US Geological Survey database. Results suggest that children’s education and health out-comes decrease with some heterogeneity by age and gender. The third chapter identifies ethnic favouritism in the distribution of post-disaster aid at household level in the context of Indonesia. Results show that co-ethnic households are more likely to receive post-disaster relief transfers than households that were equally affected by a natural disaster, but do not share the same ethnicity as the community leader. Results also suggest that ethnic favouritism significantly reduces social cohesion measured by trust in affected communities.Keywords: Education; Health; Cognitive skills; Critical age; Post-disaster aid; Household savings; Trust; Natural disaster; Political instability; Ethnic diversity; Ethnic favouritism; Egypt; Indonesia.