Flooding has been identified as the most widespread and most frequently occurring natural disaster by the United Nation. Sweden is no exception when it comes to being affected by flooding, and several major flood events have been seen in recent years. The Swedish National Board of Building, Housing and Planning published a report on climate adaption in 2010 where they stated that Sweden is missing over all strategies and goals meet the demands of more frequent and intense rain events. Present thesis aimed to develop planning support for integration of hydrological perspectives in urban planning to manage water related risks such as flooding and high water levels. This was done through hydrodynamic modelling in MIKE FLOOD, developed by the DHI, where a 1D stream model was coupled with a 2D free-surface flow model. The model was run for three different scenarios reflecting current conditions (Scenario 1), climate change (Scenario 2) and land use change (Scenario 3). The study area chosen for present study was Kista residential area, located northwest of Stockholm, and part of Igelbäcken stream that runs by Kista. Igelbäcken stream was represented by a 1D stream model in the software MIKE 11 provided by DHI and Järfälla municipality, whereas a 2D model in MIKE 21 for Kista and the stream surroundings was setup throughout the project. Data was provided by Stockholm Vatten och Avfall and processed in ArcMap before it could be used in the modelling. The MIKE 21 model required data regarding topography, land use, and precipitation. A 100-year flood, based on a series of designed rain events with various duration and intensity, was used as precipitation input to replicated a hypothetical major rain event. Flooding in Scenario 2 was more extensive than flooding in Scenario 1, which was expected since Scenario 2 was based on a 100-year flood with a climate change factor of 1.25 and projection for year 2100. Scenario 3, which represented a “worst case” scenario with all planned exploitation of Kista identified as impermeable surface, forced the water to move further down in the topography compared with Scenario 1. Several buildings were more or less surrounded by at least 0.3 meter of water in Scenario 3. Water levels in Igelbäcken stream were strongly affected by the rain events and showed an increase of 0.4, 0.9, and 0.4 meter for the three scenarios at the end of the simulations which lasted for six hours. In conclusion, findings of present study show larger flooding extent that previously performed studies in the area and they reflect fast response in Igelbäcken stream with respect to increased water level. Indicating that effects from major rain events should not be underestimated. Furthermore, the findings could prove useful for identification of major runoff pathways and identification of suitable locations for multifunctional with respect to infiltration and retardation, if available at an early stage in the planning process. Thus, this type of study could prove useful for integration of hydrology in the urban planning process. / Översvämningar har identifierats som världens mest utspridda och vanligast förekommande naturkatastroftyp av FN. Sverige är inget undantag när det kommer till påverkas av översvämningar, under de senaste åren har flera stora översvämningar förekommit i landet. Boverket publicerade 2010 en rapport gällande Sveriges hantering av klimatanpassning. Slutsatsen av denna rapport var att övergripande strategier och mål för klimatanpassning saknas när det gäller hantering av kraftiga skyfall och att bättring krävs för en hållbar samhällsutveckling. Denna studie syftade till att utveckla planeringsstöd för integrering av ett hydrologiskt perspektiv i urban planering för att hantera vattenrelaterade risker så som översvämning och höga vattennivåer. Detta gjordes genom hydrodynamiks modellering i mjukvaran MIKE FLOOD, utvecklad av DHI, där en 1D vattendragsmodell kopplades till en 2D ytavrinningsmodell. Modellen kördes för tre scenarion: nuläget (Scenario 1), klimatförändring (Scenario 2) och förändrad markanvändning (Scenario 3). Förorten Kista, belägen nordväst om Stockholm, och den del av Igelbäcken som passerar Kista valdes som studieområde. Igelbäcken representerades av en 1D vattendragsmodell, MIKE 11, som tillhandahölls av DHI, medan en 2D ytavrinningsmodell i MIKE 21 sattes upp för Kista och Igelbäckens omgivning under projektets gång. Data tillhandahölls av Stockholm Vatten och Avfall och bearbetades i ArcMap innan den kunde användas i modelleringen. MIKE 21 modellen baserades på data rörande topografi, markanvändning och nederbörd. Ett 100-års regn, baserat på en serie möjliga 100-års regn med varierande intensitet och varaktighet, användes som nederbördsdata för att efterlikna ett hypotetiskt kraftigt skyfall. Översvämning i Scenario 2 hade en större utbredning än Scenario 1, vilket var väntat då Scenario 2 baserades på ett 100-års regn med en klimatförändringfaktor på 1.25 och en klimatprojektion för år 2100. Scenario 3, vilket representerade ett ”värsta möjliga” scenario med all planerad exploatering i Kista definierad som icke genomsläpplig yta, tvingade vatten som ansamlats på ytan att röra sig längre ner i topografin eller fångade det på nya ställen i studieområdet jämfört med Scenario 1. Ett flertal byggnader var till stor del omringade av ett vattendjup på åtminstone 0.3 meter i Scenario 3. Vattennivåer i Igelbäcken var inledningsvis väldigt låga, men påvisade sedan en ökning av 0.4, 0.9 samt 0.4 meter i respektive scenario vid simuleringens slut (vilken varade i sex timmar). Sammanfattningsvis påvisade studien större översvämningsspridning än tidigare genomförd översvämningsmodellering i området. Vidare visade resultaten en snabb respons i Igelbäcken med avseende på vattennivåförändringar vid simuleringens slut. Detta indikerar att påverkan från kraftiga skyfall inte bör underskattas. Resultaten ses som användbara i ett tidigt stadie av planeringsprocessen för identifiering av viktiga ytavrinningsvägar i landskapet samt för lokalisering av lämpliga ytor för etablering av multifunktionella ytor, till exempel parker, med avseende på infiltration och fördröjning av dagvatten. Denna typ av studie kan därmed ses som användbar för integration av ett hydrologiskt perspektiv i den urbana planeringsprocessen.

Understanding water temperature dynamics in lakes is essential for ecological and environmental management. This study focuses on Lake Erken, Sweden, aiming to develop and validate a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model using the MIKE 3 FM modelling system to simulate the lake's water temperature distribution. The model performance was evaluated by comparing simulated water temperature profiles with observed data at various depths, distinguishing between the upper layer and deeper layers. Results showed satisfactory performance, with the model capturing seasonal and spatial variations in the lake’s thermal structure. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) for water temperature simulation ranged between 0.7-1.8°C, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was between 0.86-0.99 across different depths. However, the model has limitations in accurately capturing stratification in deeper layers, especially during the summer months. This research underscores the importance of accurate temperature modelling for understanding lake ecosystems and provides insights for future improvements in hydrodynamic simulations.

Dans un champ captant, comme celui qui alimente l'agglomération lyonnaise, le fonctionnement de chaque « objet » (bassins d'infiltration, puits, rivières, nappe, zone non saturée) et leurs interactions sont complexes et mal connus. Dans un premier temps, une série d'essais d'infiltration à différentes échelles dans un bassin artificiel de réalimentation a permis de mieux appréhender le fonctionnement de cet ouvrage et de chiffrer les paramètres hydrodynamiques de la zone non saturée. Les résultats des interprétations par méthodes numériques fondées sur l'équation de Richards ont montré que les flux infiltrés dans les bassins dépendent principalement de la conductivité hydraulique à saturation d'une couche située directement sous le sable calibré couvrant le fond du bassin, identifiée comme étant moins perméable que la nappe. Cette couche conditionne l'existence d'une zone non saturée. La réalisation d'essais de pompage dans l'aquifère sur les forages d'exploitation et sur un dispositif spécialement mis en place durant ce travail a permis de déterminer les paramètres hydrodynamiques de la nappe. Une analyse des observations et une modélisation conceptuelle en 2D, puis en 3D ont permis d'identifier les mécanismes prépondérants (stratifications, apports et prélèvements) et de simuler correctement à la fois les flux infiltrés dans un des bassins d'infiltration et la remontée de la nappe. A l'échelle d'un bassin, les flux infiltrés sont variables dans le temps, ils dépendent de l'état de colmatage de la surface d'infiltration mais également de la température de l'eau infiltrée et de l'état hydrique initial du sol sous le bassin. Les analyses de sensibilité réalisées avec les modèles mis en place indiquent que la conductivité hydraulique à saturation de l'aquifère, mais également la proximité des conditions aux limites imposées dans la nappe (les rivières et les puits de pompage) influencent de manière prépondérante la remontée de la nappe. Une modélisation 3D d'un autre secteur du champ captant comprenant deux bassins d'infiltration, deux bras de rivière ainsi que des puits de pompage a été réalisée. La condition à la limite imposée sur les rivières est du troisième type en accord avec l'observation d'un sous-écoulement en nappe. Les échanges nappe/rivières sont calés sur des observations à partir d'une chronique de propagation d'une onde de crue dans la nappe. Des piézomètres en flûte de pan, spécifiquement implantés à proximité d'un bassin, ont permis d'observer des différences de charge hydraulique fortes à différents niveaux de l'aquifère lorsque le bassin d'infiltration est en eau. La modélisation 3D est conforme à ces observations. Elle a confirmé l'importance du rôle d'une hétérogénéité de type argilo-sableuse (de conductivité hydraulique à saturation inférieure aux autres lithologies présentes dans l'aquifère) dans les écoulements (direction et flux). Le modèle développé représente correctement les flux infiltrés via les bassins ainsi que les fluctuations de la piézométrie de la nappe. Il permet de vérifier l'inversion des écoulements par rapport aux infiltrations de la rivière, d'identifier les puits alimentés par les bassins d'infiltration et également de mettre en évidence les flux de nappe passant sous la rivière. / In a well field of the Lyon metropolitan area, designed for drinking water supply, behaviour of each object (infiltration basins, wells, rivers, aquifer, and unsaturated zone) and their interactions are complex and not well-known. As a first step, infiltration tests at different spatial scales in one artificial basin were performed to better understand the basin operation and to estimate the hydrodynamic parameters of the unsaturated zone. Results of interpretation, using numerical methods based on Richards equation, reveal that infiltrated basin fluxes mainly depend on saturated hydraulic conductivity of a layer located just below the calibrated sand layer that cover the basin bottom. Indeed this layer has been estimated to be less permeable than the aquifer, which allows the existence of the unsaturated zone below. Pumping tests in the groundwater have been performed using production wells and a well specially implemented during this thesis work in order to estimate aquifer hydrodynamic parameters. Observations analysis and a conceptual modelling, in 2D and then in 3D, lead to a better understanding of the controlling mechanisms (stratification, input and output) and to simulate both basin infiltration rates and water table rise. Considering the whole basin scale, input fluxes are transient, related to the clogging statement of the infiltration area but also to the temperature of inflow water and the initial statement of the soil just below the basin. Sensibility analyses using the models highlight that the amount of the water table rise is mainly influenced by the aquifer saturated hydraulic conductivity and also by the location of imposed boundaries in the aquifer (rivers and pumping wells). The model properly accounts basin inflow fluxes and water table fluctuations. The model is able to verify if flows are reversed in relation to river exchanges, if wells are fed by infiltration basins and it highlights aquifer flows below the river. A 3D modelling has been realised in another area of the well field, comprising two infiltration basins, two river arms and pumping wells. In agreement with underflow in the aquifer, rivers are imposed in the model as third kind boundary conditions. Aquifer and river exchanges are calibrated with observed data of one aquifer flood-wave propagation. Significant differences of hydraulic heads have been observed at different depths of the aquifer using panpipes piezometers, specifically implemented, close to one infiltration basin. Theses differences are closely related to basin operation. These observations are properly calculated by the 3D model. Using the model, the effect of one sandy-clay heterogeneous layer (whose saturated hydraulic conductivity is lower than the ones of other aquifer lithologies) on aquifer flows (direction and flux) is notable. The model properly accounts basin inflow fluxes and water table fluctuations. The model is able to verify if flows are reversed in relation to river exchanges, if wells are fed by infiltration basins and it highlights aquifer flow below the river.

Le bassin Amazonien est connu comme le plus grand système hydrologique du monde et pour son rôle important sur le système terre, influençant le cycle du carbone et le climat global. Les pressions anthropiques récentes, telles que la déforestation, les changements climatiques, la construction de barrage hydro-électriques, ainsi que l’augmentation des crues et sécheresse extrêmes qui se produisent dans cette région, motivent l’étude de l’hydrologie du bassin Amazonien. Dans le même temps, des méthodes hydrologiques de modélisation et de surveillance par observation satellitaire ont été développées qui peuvent fournir les bases techniques à cette fin. Ce travail a eu pour objectif la compréhension et la prévision du régime hydrologique du bassin Amazonien. Nous avons développé et évaluer des techniques de modélisation hydrologique-hydrodynamique de grande échelle, d’assimilation de données in situ et spatiales et de prévision hydrologique. L’ensemble de ces techniques nous a permis d’explorer le fonctionnement du bassin Amazonien en terme de processus physiques et de prévisibilité hydrologique. Nous avons utilisé le modèle hydrologique-hydrodynamique de grande échelle MGB-IPH pour simuler le bassin, le forçage précipitation étant fourni par l’observation spatiale. Les résultats de la modélisation sont satisfaisants lorsque validés à partir de données in situ de débit et de hauteurs d’eau mais également de données dérivées de l’observation spatiale incluant les niveaux d’eau déduits de l’altimétrie radar, le contenu en eau total issu de la gravimétrie satellitaire, l’extension des zones inondées. Nous avons montré que les eaux superficielles sont responsables en grande partie de la variation du stock total d’eau, l’influence des grands plans d’eau sur la variabilité spatiale des précipitations et l’influence des plaines d’inondation et des effets de remous sur la propagation des ondes de crues. Nos analyses ont montré le rôle prépondérant des conditions initiales, en particulier des eaux superficielles, pour la prévisibilité des grands fleuves Amazoniens, la connaissance des précipitations futures n’ayant qu’une influence secondaire. Ainsi, pour améliorer l’estimation des variables d’état hydrologiques, nous avons développé, pour la première fois, un schéma d’assimilation de données pour un modèle hydrologique-hydrodynamique de grande échelle, pour l’assimilation de données de jaugeages in situ et dérivées de l’altimétrie radar (débit et hauteur d’eau), dont les résultats se sont montrés satisfaisants. Nous avons également développé un prototype de système de prévision des débits pour le bassin Amazonien, basé sur le modèle initialisé avec les conditions initiales optimales fournies par le schéma d’assimilation de données, et en utilisant la pluie estimée par satellite disponible en temps réel. Les résultats ont été prometteurs, le modèle étant capable de prévoir les débits dans les principaux fleuves Amazoniens avec une antécédence importante (entre 1 et 3 mois), permettant d’anticiper, par exemple, la sècheresse extrême de 2005. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel de la modélisation hydrologique appuyé par l’observation spatiale pour la prévision des débits avec une grande antécédence dans les grands bassins versant mondiaux. / A bacia Amazônica se destaca como o principal sistema hidrológico do mundo e pelo seu importante papel no sistema terrestre, influenciando o ciclo de carbono e o clima global. Recentes pressões antrópicas, como o desflorestamento, mudanças climáticas e a construção de barragens hidroelétricas, somados às crescentes cheias e secas extremas ocorridas nesta região, motivam o estudo da hidrologia da bacia Amazônica. Ao mesmo tempo, têm se desenvolvido métodos hidrológicos de modelagem e monitoramento via sensoriamento remoto que podem fornecer as bases técnicas para este fim. Este trabalho objetivou a compreensão e previsão da hidrologia da bacia Amazônica. Foram desenvolvidas e avaliadas diversas técnicas, incluindo de modelagem hidrológica-hidrodinâmica de larga escala, de assimilação de dados in situ e de sensoriamento remoto, e de previsão hidrológica. Este conjunto de técnicas foi utilizado para compreender o funcionamento da bacia Amazônica em termos de seus processos hidrológicos e sua previsibilidade hidrológica. O modelo hidrológico-hidrodinâmico de larga escala MGB-IPH foi utilizado para simular a bacia, sendo forçado com dados de chuva estimados por satélite. O modelo mostrou bom desempenho em uma validação detalhada contra observações de vazões e cotas in situ além de dados oriundos de sensoriamento remoto, incluindo níveis d’água de altimetria por radar, armazenamento d’água de gravimetria espacial e extensão de áreas alagadas. Mostrou-se a dominância das águas superficiais nas variações do armazenamento de água, a influência dos grandes corpos d’água sobre a variabilidade espacial da precipitação, além da importância das várzeas da inundação e efeitos de remanso sobre a propagação das ondas de cheia Amazônicas. As condições hidrológicas iniciais, com destaque para as águas superficiais, mostraram dominar a previsibilidade hidrológica nos grandes rios amazônicos, tendo assim a precipitação no futuro um papel secundário. Portanto, afim de melhor estimar os estados hidrológicos, de forma pioneira, foi desenvolvido um esquema de assimilação de dados para um modelo hidrológicohidrodinâmico de larga escala para assimilar informações in situ e de altimetria por radar, cujo desempenho se mostrou satisfatório. Desenvolveu-se também um protótipo de sistema de previsão de vazões para a bacia Amazônica, baseado no modelo inicializado com condições iniciais ótimas do esquema de assimilação de dados e utilizando precipitação estimada por satélite disponível em tempo real. Os resultados foram promissores e o modelo foi capaz de prever vazões nos principais rios amazônicos com grande antecedência (~1 a 3 meses), antecipando, por exemplo, a grande seca de 2005. Estes resultados mostram o potencial da modelagem hidrológica de larga escala apoiada por informação de sensoriamento remoto na previsão de vazões com alta antecedência nas grandes bacias hidrográficas do mundo. / The Amazon basin is known as the world’s main hydrological system and by its important role in the earth system, carbon cycle and global climate. Recent anthropogenic pressure, such as deforestation, climate change and the construction of hydropower dams, together with increasing extreme floods and droughts, encourage the research on the hydrology of the Amazon basin. On the other hand, hydrological methods for modeling and remotely sensed observation are being developed, and can be used for this goal. This work aimed at understanding and forecasting the hydrology of the Amazon River basin. We developed and evaluated techniques for large scale hydrologic-hydrodynamic modeling, data assimilation of both in situ and remote sensing data and hydrological forecasting. By means of these techniques, we explored the functioning of the Amazon River basin, in terms of its physical processes and its hydrological predictability. We used the MGB-IPH large scale hydrologichydrodynamic model forced by satellite-based precipitation. The model had a good performance when extensively validated against in situ discharge and stage measurements and also remotely sensed data, including radar altimetry-based water levels, gravimetric-based terrestrial water storage and flood inundation extent. We showed that surface waters governs most of the terrestrial water storage changes, the influence of large water bodies on precipitation spatial variability and the importance of the floodplains and backwater effects on the routing of the Amazon floodwaves. Analyses showed the dominant role of hydrological initial conditions, mainly surface waters, on hydrological predictability on the main Amazon Rivers, while the knowledge of future precipitation may be secondary. Aiming at the optimal estimation of these hydrological states, we developed, for the first time, a data assimilation scheme for both gauged and satellite altimetry-based discharge and water levels into a large scale hydrologic-hydrodynamic model, and it showed a good performance. We also developed a forecast system prototype, where the model is based on initial conditions gathered by the data assimilation scheme and forced by satellite-based precipitation. Results are promising and the model was able to provide accurate discharge forecasts in the main Amazon rivers even for very large lead times (~1 to 3 months), predicting, for example, the historical 2005 drought. These results point to the potential of large scale hydrological models supported with remote sensing information for providing hydrological forecasts well in advance at world’s large rivers and poorly monitored regions.

Le bassin Amazonien est connu comme le plus grand système hydrologique du monde et pour son rôle important sur le système terre, influençant le cycle du carbone et le climat global. Les pressions anthropiques récentes, telles que la déforestation, les changements climatiques, la construction de barrage hydro-électriques, ainsi que l’augmentation des crues et sécheresse extrêmes qui se produisent dans cette région, motivent l’étude de l’hydrologie du bassin Amazonien. Dans le même temps, des méthodes hydrologiques de modélisation et de surveillance par observation satellitaire ont été développées qui peuvent fournir les bases techniques à cette fin. Ce travail a eu pour objectif la compréhension et la prévision du régime hydrologique du bassin Amazonien. Nous avons développé et évaluer des techniques de modélisation hydrologique-hydrodynamique de grande échelle, d’assimilation de données in situ et spatiales et de prévision hydrologique. L’ensemble de ces techniques nous a permis d’explorer le fonctionnement du bassin Amazonien en terme de processus physiques et de prévisibilité hydrologique. Nous avons utilisé le modèle hydrologique-hydrodynamique de grande échelle MGB-IPH pour simuler le bassin, le forçage précipitation étant fourni par l’observation spatiale. Les résultats de la modélisation sont satisfaisants lorsque validés à partir de données in situ de débit et de hauteurs d’eau mais également de données dérivées de l’observation spatiale incluant les niveaux d’eau déduits de l’altimétrie radar, le contenu en eau total issu de la gravimétrie satellitaire, l’extension des zones inondées. Nous avons montré que les eaux superficielles sont responsables en grande partie de la variation du stock total d’eau, l’influence des grands plans d’eau sur la variabilité spatiale des précipitations et l’influence des plaines d’inondation et des effets de remous sur la propagation des ondes de crues. Nos analyses ont montré le rôle prépondérant des conditions initiales, en particulier des eaux superficielles, pour la prévisibilité des grands fleuves Amazoniens, la connaissance des précipitations futures n’ayant qu’une influence secondaire. Ainsi, pour améliorer l’estimation des variables d’état hydrologiques, nous avons développé, pour la première fois, un schéma d’assimilation de données pour un modèle hydrologique-hydrodynamique de grande échelle, pour l’assimilation de données de jaugeages in situ et dérivées de l’altimétrie radar (débit et hauteur d’eau), dont les résultats se sont montrés satisfaisants. Nous avons également développé un prototype de système de prévision des débits pour le bassin Amazonien, basé sur le modèle initialisé avec les conditions initiales optimales fournies par le schéma d’assimilation de données, et en utilisant la pluie estimée par satellite disponible en temps réel. Les résultats ont été prometteurs, le modèle étant capable de prévoir les débits dans les principaux fleuves Amazoniens avec une antécédence importante (entre 1 et 3 mois), permettant d’anticiper, par exemple, la sècheresse extrême de 2005. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel de la modélisation hydrologique appuyé par l’observation spatiale pour la prévision des débits avec une grande antécédence dans les grands bassins versant mondiaux. / A bacia Amazônica se destaca como o principal sistema hidrológico do mundo e pelo seu importante papel no sistema terrestre, influenciando o ciclo de carbono e o clima global. Recentes pressões antrópicas, como o desflorestamento, mudanças climáticas e a construção de barragens hidroelétricas, somados às crescentes cheias e secas extremas ocorridas nesta região, motivam o estudo da hidrologia da bacia Amazônica. Ao mesmo tempo, têm se desenvolvido métodos hidrológicos de modelagem e monitoramento via sensoriamento remoto que podem fornecer as bases técnicas para este fim. Este trabalho objetivou a compreensão e previsão da hidrologia da bacia Amazônica. Foram desenvolvidas e avaliadas diversas técnicas, incluindo de modelagem hidrológica-hidrodinâmica de larga escala, de assimilação de dados in situ e de sensoriamento remoto, e de previsão hidrológica. Este conjunto de técnicas foi utilizado para compreender o funcionamento da bacia Amazônica em termos de seus processos hidrológicos e sua previsibilidade hidrológica. O modelo hidrológico-hidrodinâmico de larga escala MGB-IPH foi utilizado para simular a bacia, sendo forçado com dados de chuva estimados por satélite. O modelo mostrou bom desempenho em uma validação detalhada contra observações de vazões e cotas in situ além de dados oriundos de sensoriamento remoto, incluindo níveis d’água de altimetria por radar, armazenamento d’água de gravimetria espacial e extensão de áreas alagadas. Mostrou-se a dominância das águas superficiais nas variações do armazenamento de água, a influência dos grandes corpos d’água sobre a variabilidade espacial da precipitação, além da importância das várzeas da inundação e efeitos de remanso sobre a propagação das ondas de cheia Amazônicas. As condições hidrológicas iniciais, com destaque para as águas superficiais, mostraram dominar a previsibilidade hidrológica nos grandes rios amazônicos, tendo assim a precipitação no futuro um papel secundário. Portanto, afim de melhor estimar os estados hidrológicos, de forma pioneira, foi desenvolvido um esquema de assimilação de dados para um modelo hidrológicohidrodinâmico de larga escala para assimilar informações in situ e de altimetria por radar, cujo desempenho se mostrou satisfatório. Desenvolveu-se também um protótipo de sistema de previsão de vazões para a bacia Amazônica, baseado no modelo inicializado com condições iniciais ótimas do esquema de assimilação de dados e utilizando precipitação estimada por satélite disponível em tempo real. Os resultados foram promissores e o modelo foi capaz de prever vazões nos principais rios amazônicos com grande antecedência (~1 a 3 meses), antecipando, por exemplo, a grande seca de 2005. Estes resultados mostram o potencial da modelagem hidrológica de larga escala apoiada por informação de sensoriamento remoto na previsão de vazões com alta antecedência nas grandes bacias hidrográficas do mundo. / The Amazon basin is known as the world’s main hydrological system and by its important role in the earth system, carbon cycle and global climate. Recent anthropogenic pressure, such as deforestation, climate change and the construction of hydropower dams, together with increasing extreme floods and droughts, encourage the research on the hydrology of the Amazon basin. On the other hand, hydrological methods for modeling and remotely sensed observation are being developed, and can be used for this goal. This work aimed at understanding and forecasting the hydrology of the Amazon River basin. We developed and evaluated techniques for large scale hydrologic-hydrodynamic modeling, data assimilation of both in situ and remote sensing data and hydrological forecasting. By means of these techniques, we explored the functioning of the Amazon River basin, in terms of its physical processes and its hydrological predictability. We used the MGB-IPH large scale hydrologichydrodynamic model forced by satellite-based precipitation. The model had a good performance when extensively validated against in situ discharge and stage measurements and also remotely sensed data, including radar altimetry-based water levels, gravimetric-based terrestrial water storage and flood inundation extent. We showed that surface waters governs most of the terrestrial water storage changes, the influence of large water bodies on precipitation spatial variability and the importance of the floodplains and backwater effects on the routing of the Amazon floodwaves. Analyses showed the dominant role of hydrological initial conditions, mainly surface waters, on hydrological predictability on the main Amazon Rivers, while the knowledge of future precipitation may be secondary. Aiming at the optimal estimation of these hydrological states, we developed, for the first time, a data assimilation scheme for both gauged and satellite altimetry-based discharge and water levels into a large scale hydrologic-hydrodynamic model, and it showed a good performance. We also developed a forecast system prototype, where the model is based on initial conditions gathered by the data assimilation scheme and forced by satellite-based precipitation. Results are promising and the model was able to provide accurate discharge forecasts in the main Amazon rivers even for very large lead times (~1 to 3 months), predicting, for example, the historical 2005 drought. These results point to the potential of large scale hydrological models supported with remote sensing information for providing hydrological forecasts well in advance at world’s large rivers and poorly monitored regions.

Le bassin Amazonien est connu comme le plus grand système hydrologique du monde et pour son rôle important sur le système terre, influençant le cycle du carbone et le climat global. Les pressions anthropiques récentes, telles que la déforestation, les changements climatiques, la construction de barrage hydro-électriques, ainsi que l’augmentation des crues et sécheresse extrêmes qui se produisent dans cette région, motivent l’étude de l’hydrologie du bassin Amazonien. Dans le même temps, des méthodes hydrologiques de modélisation et de surveillance par observation satellitaire ont été développées qui peuvent fournir les bases techniques à cette fin. Ce travail a eu pour objectif la compréhension et la prévision du régime hydrologique du bassin Amazonien. Nous avons développé et évaluer des techniques de modélisation hydrologique-hydrodynamique de grande échelle, d’assimilation de données in situ et spatiales et de prévision hydrologique. L’ensemble de ces techniques nous a permis d’explorer le fonctionnement du bassin Amazonien en terme de processus physiques et de prévisibilité hydrologique. Nous avons utilisé le modèle hydrologique-hydrodynamique de grande échelle MGB-IPH pour simuler le bassin, le forçage précipitation étant fourni par l’observation spatiale. Les résultats de la modélisation sont satisfaisants lorsque validés à partir de données in situ de débit et de hauteurs d’eau mais également de données dérivées de l’observation spatiale incluant les niveaux d’eau déduits de l’altimétrie radar, le contenu en eau total issu de la gravimétrie satellitaire, l’extension des zones inondées. Nous avons montré que les eaux superficielles sont responsables en grande partie de la variation du stock total d’eau, l’influence des grands plans d’eau sur la variabilité spatiale des précipitations et l’influence des plaines d’inondation et des effets de remous sur la propagation des ondes de crues. Nos analyses ont montré le rôle prépondérant des conditions initiales, en particulier des eaux superficielles, pour la prévisibilité des grands fleuves Amazoniens, la connaissance des précipitations futures n’ayant qu’une influence secondaire. Ainsi, pour améliorer l’estimation des variables d’état hydrologiques, nous avons développé, pour la première fois, un schéma d’assimilation de données pour un modèle hydrologique-hydrodynamique de grande échelle, pour l’assimilation de données de jaugeages in situ et dérivées de l’altimétrie radar (débit et hauteur d’eau), dont les résultats se sont montrés satisfaisants. Nous avons également développé un prototype de système de prévision des débits pour le bassin Amazonien, basé sur le modèle initialisé avec les conditions initiales optimales fournies par le schéma d’assimilation de données, et en utilisant la pluie estimée par satellite disponible en temps réel. Les résultats ont été prometteurs, le modèle étant capable de prévoir les débits dans les principaux fleuves Amazoniens avec une antécédence importante (entre 1 et 3 mois), permettant d’anticiper, par exemple, la sècheresse extrême de 2005. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel de la modélisation hydrologique appuyé par l’observation spatiale pour la prévision des débits avec une grande antécédence dans les grands bassins versant mondiaux. / A bacia Amazônica se destaca como o principal sistema hidrológico do mundo e pelo seu importante papel no sistema terrestre, influenciando o ciclo de carbono e o clima global. Recentes pressões antrópicas, como o desflorestamento, mudanças climáticas e a construção de barragens hidroelétricas, somados às crescentes cheias e secas extremas ocorridas nesta região, motivam o estudo da hidrologia da bacia Amazônica. Ao mesmo tempo, têm se desenvolvido métodos hidrológicos de modelagem e monitoramento via sensoriamento remoto que podem fornecer as bases técnicas para este fim. Este trabalho objetivou a compreensão e previsão da hidrologia da bacia Amazônica. Foram desenvolvidas e avaliadas diversas técnicas, incluindo de modelagem hidrológica-hidrodinâmica de larga escala, de assimilação de dados in situ e de sensoriamento remoto, e de previsão hidrológica. Este conjunto de técnicas foi utilizado para compreender o funcionamento da bacia Amazônica em termos de seus processos hidrológicos e sua previsibilidade hidrológica. O modelo hidrológico-hidrodinâmico de larga escala MGB-IPH foi utilizado para simular a bacia, sendo forçado com dados de chuva estimados por satélite. O modelo mostrou bom desempenho em uma validação detalhada contra observações de vazões e cotas in situ além de dados oriundos de sensoriamento remoto, incluindo níveis d’água de altimetria por radar, armazenamento d’água de gravimetria espacial e extensão de áreas alagadas. Mostrou-se a dominância das águas superficiais nas variações do armazenamento de água, a influência dos grandes corpos d’água sobre a variabilidade espacial da precipitação, além da importância das várzeas da inundação e efeitos de remanso sobre a propagação das ondas de cheia Amazônicas. As condições hidrológicas iniciais, com destaque para as águas superficiais, mostraram dominar a previsibilidade hidrológica nos grandes rios amazônicos, tendo assim a precipitação no futuro um papel secundário. Portanto, afim de melhor estimar os estados hidrológicos, de forma pioneira, foi desenvolvido um esquema de assimilação de dados para um modelo hidrológicohidrodinâmico de larga escala para assimilar informações in situ e de altimetria por radar, cujo desempenho se mostrou satisfatório. Desenvolveu-se também um protótipo de sistema de previsão de vazões para a bacia Amazônica, baseado no modelo inicializado com condições iniciais ótimas do esquema de assimilação de dados e utilizando precipitação estimada por satélite disponível em tempo real. Os resultados foram promissores e o modelo foi capaz de prever vazões nos principais rios amazônicos com grande antecedência (~1 a 3 meses), antecipando, por exemplo, a grande seca de 2005. Estes resultados mostram o potencial da modelagem hidrológica de larga escala apoiada por informação de sensoriamento remoto na previsão de vazões com alta antecedência nas grandes bacias hidrográficas do mundo. / The Amazon basin is known as the world’s main hydrological system and by its important role in the earth system, carbon cycle and global climate. Recent anthropogenic pressure, such as deforestation, climate change and the construction of hydropower dams, together with increasing extreme floods and droughts, encourage the research on the hydrology of the Amazon basin. On the other hand, hydrological methods for modeling and remotely sensed observation are being developed, and can be used for this goal. This work aimed at understanding and forecasting the hydrology of the Amazon River basin. We developed and evaluated techniques for large scale hydrologic-hydrodynamic modeling, data assimilation of both in situ and remote sensing data and hydrological forecasting. By means of these techniques, we explored the functioning of the Amazon River basin, in terms of its physical processes and its hydrological predictability. We used the MGB-IPH large scale hydrologichydrodynamic model forced by satellite-based precipitation. The model had a good performance when extensively validated against in situ discharge and stage measurements and also remotely sensed data, including radar altimetry-based water levels, gravimetric-based terrestrial water storage and flood inundation extent. We showed that surface waters governs most of the terrestrial water storage changes, the influence of large water bodies on precipitation spatial variability and the importance of the floodplains and backwater effects on the routing of the Amazon floodwaves. Analyses showed the dominant role of hydrological initial conditions, mainly surface waters, on hydrological predictability on the main Amazon Rivers, while the knowledge of future precipitation may be secondary. Aiming at the optimal estimation of these hydrological states, we developed, for the first time, a data assimilation scheme for both gauged and satellite altimetry-based discharge and water levels into a large scale hydrologic-hydrodynamic model, and it showed a good performance. We also developed a forecast system prototype, where the model is based on initial conditions gathered by the data assimilation scheme and forced by satellite-based precipitation. Results are promising and the model was able to provide accurate discharge forecasts in the main Amazon rivers even for very large lead times (~1 to 3 months), predicting, for example, the historical 2005 drought. These results point to the potential of large scale hydrological models supported with remote sensing information for providing hydrological forecasts well in advance at world’s large rivers and poorly monitored regions.

Although the physical characteristics of surfing breaks are well described in the literature, there is little specific research on surfing and coastal management. Such research is required because coastal engineering has had significant impacts to surfing breaks, both positive and negative. Strategic planning and environmental impact assessment methods, a central tenet of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM), are recommended by this thesis to maximise surfing amenities. The research reported here identifies key oceanographic considerations required for ICZM around surfing breaks including: surfing wave parameters; surfing break components; relationship between surfer skill, surfing manoeuvre type and wave parameters; wind effects on waves; currents; geomorphic surfing break categorisation; beach-state and morphology; and offshore wave transformations. Key coastal activities that can have impacts to surfing breaks are identified. Environmental data types to consider during coastal studies around surfing breaks are presented and geographic information systems (GIS) are used to manage and interpret such information. To monitor surfing breaks, a shallow water multibeam echo sounding system was utilised and a RTK GPS water level correction and hydrographic GIS methodology developed. Including surfing in coastal management requires coastal engineering solutions that incorporate surfing. As an example, the efficacy of the artificial surfing reef (ASR) at Mount Maunganui, New Zealand, was evaluated. GIS, multibeam echo soundings, oceanographic measurements, photography, and wave modelling were all applied to monitor sea floor morphology around the reef. Results showed that the beach-state has more cellular circulation since the reef was installed, and a groin effect on the offshore bar was caused by the structure within the monitoring period, trapping sediment updrift and eroding sediment downdrift. No identifiable shoreline salient was observed. Landward of the reef, a scour hole ~3 times the surface area of the reef has formed. The current literature on ASRs has primarily focused on reef shape and its role in creating surfing waves. However, this study suggests that impacts to the offshore bar, beach-state, scour hole and surf zone hydrodynamics should all be included in future surfing reef designs. More real world reef studies, including ongoing monitoring of existing surfing reefs are required to validate theoretical concepts in the published literature.