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Continental ice sheet simulations are commonly based on either the Full Stokes (FS) model, or its simplification, the Shallow Ice Approximation (SIA) model. This thesis examines a machine learning error estimation approach for assessing the accuracy of the solutions to the SIA model, where the reference (exact) solution is that of the Stokes model. We use Gaussian Process (GP) regression through existing GP libraries in Python to model and train a machine learning model. For computational efficiency reasons we use Variational Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Processes (VNNGP), where the input data are the SIA solution and the ice sheet geometry characteristics. The output data is the error between the SIA solution and the FS solution. We find that these models trained on various ice sheet geometries are able to make rough predictions for other simple geometries not trained for; however we observe a poor fit for the much more complex Greenland geometry, which suggests further work to be done, utilizing more diverse geometries for training.

近年全球暖化現象日益嚴重，格陵蘭等極區融冰所造成之海平面上升將對全球人類帶來嚴重威脅。因冰層質量之改變與冰河移動速度高度相關，故可藉由監測格陵蘭冰層（Greenland Ice Sheet，GrIS）上冰河之移動推估全球暖化對其造成之影響。衛星影像因具有連續且快速獲得大範圍地表資訊之能力，且可結合各影像處理技術獲得地表變形量，故已廣泛應用於廣域冰河之監測。然不同影像與技術均有其優勢與限制，故本研究將使用合成孔徑雷達（Synthetic Aperture Radar，SAR）與光學影像，並結合合成孔徑雷達差分干涉（Differential Interferometric SAR，D-InSAR）、多重合成孔徑雷達干涉（Multi-aperture Interferometric SAR，MAI）與偏移偵測法（Pixel-offset，PO）技術獲得冰河表面於不同方向之位移向量，再整合各向量透過三維變動量解構法（3D decomposition）求解表面於三維方向之變形量。據此執行數值冰層動力模型（Numerical Ice Sheet Model，ISM），並結合模擬之冰底基岩渠道網絡、數化之冰面冰隙與冰面湖及氣象觀測資料後，參佐冰河變動理論，進一步了解格陵蘭Russell冰河之變動行為與機制。 / Global warming has been a worldwide issue and significantly increasing icecap melting rate over polar area. Consequently the sea level rises continuously and poses a fundamental threat to whole human beings. Since the mass loss of Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） is highly correlated to the velocity of glacier movement, this study aims to monitor the impact of global warming by tracking glacier terminus displacement over GrIS using remote sensing techniques. As there are multiple spaceborne images of various characteristics and also multiple techniques with different functions, we proposed a monitoring strategy using Synthetic Aperture Radar （SAR） and optical images, with Differential Interferometric SAR （D-InSAR）, Multi-aperture Interferometric SAR （MAI） and Pixel-offset （PO） techniques to estimate glacier movement vectors. The vectors were then merged using 3D decomposition method to derive 3D deformation. Based on the resultant 3D deformation, the Numerical Ice Sheet Model （ISM） is conducted and then integrates with modeled subglacial drainage channel network and glaciological theories, the melting dynamics and mechanism of Russell glacier can be further understood.

Recent progress in the modelling of the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet has led to a paradigm shift in the perception of the Antarctic ice sheet in a changing climate. New understanding of the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet now suggests that the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change will be driven by instability mechanisms in marine sectors. As concerns have grown about the response of the Antarctic ice sheet in a warming climate, interest has grown simultaneously in predicting with quantified uncertainty the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and in clarifying the role played by uncertainties in predicting the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change. Essential ice-sheet models have recently emerged as computationally efficient ice-sheet models for large-scale and long-term simulations of the ice-sheet dynamics and integration into Earth system models. Essential ice-sheet models, such as the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model developed at the Université Libre de Bruxelles, achieve computational tractability by representing essential mechanisms and feedbacks of ice-sheet thermodynamics through reduced-order models and appropriate parameterisations. Given their computational tractability, essential ice-sheet models combined with methods from the field of uncertainty quantification provide opportunities for more comprehensive analyses of the impact of uncertainty in ice-sheet models and for expanding the range of uncertainty quantification methods employed in ice-sheet modelling. The main contributions of this thesis are twofold. On the one hand, we contribute a new assessment and new understanding of the impact of uncertainties on the multicentennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet. On the other hand, we contribute new methods for uncertainty quantification of geometrical characteristics of the spatial response of physics-based computational models, with, as a motivation in glaciology, a focus on predicting with quantified uncertainty the retreat of the grounded region of the Antarctic ice sheet. For the first contribution, we carry out new probabilistic projections of the multicentennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change using the f.ETISh model. We apply methods from the field of uncertainty quantification to the f.ETISh model to investigate the influence of several sources of uncertainty, namely sources of uncertainty in atmospheric forcing, basal sliding, grounding-line flux parameterisation, calving, sub-shelf melting, ice-shelf rheology, and bedrock relation, on the continental response on the Antarctic ice sheet. We provide new probabilistic projections of the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to future sea-level rise; we carry out stochastic sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential sources of uncertainty; and we provide new probabilistic projections of the retreat of the grounded portion of the Antarctic ice sheet. For the second contribution, we propose to address uncertainty quantification of geometrical characteristics of the spatial response of physics-based computational models within the probabilistic context of the random set theory. We contribute to the development of the concept of confidence sets that either contain or are contained within an excursion set of the spatial response with a specified probability level. We propose a new multifidelity quantile-based method for the estimation of such confidence sets and we demonstrate the performance of the proposed method on an application concerned with predicting with quantified uncertainty the retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet. In addition to these two main contributions, we contribute to two additional pieces of research pertaining to the computation of Sobol indices in global sensitivity analysis in small-data settings using the recently introduced probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) and to a multi-model comparison of the projections of the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea-level rise. / Les progrès récents effectués dans la modélisation de la dynamique de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique ont donné lieu à un changement de paradigme vis-à-vis de la perception de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique face au changement climatique. Une meilleure compréhension de la dynamique de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique suggère désormais que la réponse de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique au changement climatique sera déterminée par des mécanismes d'instabilité dans les régions marines. Tandis qu'un nouvel engouement se porte sur une meilleure compréhension de la réponse de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique au changement climatique, un intérêt particulier se porte simultanément vers le besoin de quantifier les incertitudes sur l'évolution de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique ainsi que de clarifier le rôle joué par les incertitudes sur le comportement de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique en réponse au changement climatique. D'un point de vue numérique, les modèles glaciologiques dits essentiels ont récemment été développés afin de fournir des modèles numériques efficaces en temps de calcul dans le but de réaliser des simulations à grande échelle et sur le long terme de la dynamique des calottes polaires ainsi que dans l'optique de coupler le comportement des calottes polaires avec des modèles globaux du sytème terrestre. L'efficacité en temps de calcul de ces modèles glaciologiques essentiels, tels que le modèle f.ETISh (fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet) développé à l'Université Libre de Bruxelles, repose sur une modélisation des mécanismes et des rétroactions essentiels gouvernant la thermodynamique des calottes polaires au travers de modèles d'ordre réduit et de paramétrisations. Vu l'efficacité en temps de calcul des modèles glaciologiques essentiels, l'utilisation de ces modèles en complément des méthodes du domaine de la quantification des incertitudes offrent de nombreuses opportunités afin de mener des analyses plus complètes de l'impact des incertitudes dans les modèles glaciologiques ainsi que de développer de nouvelles méthodes du domaine de la quantification des incertitudes dans le cadre de la modélisation glaciologique. Les contributions de cette thèse sont doubles. D'une part, nous contribuons à une nouvelle estimation et une nouvelle compréhension de l'impact des incertitudes sur la réponse de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique dans les prochains siècles. D'autre part, nous contribuons au développement de nouvelles méthodes pour la quantification des incertitudes sur les caractéristiques géométriques de la réponse spatiale de modèles physiques numériques avec, comme motivation en glaciologie, un intérêt particulier vers la prédiction sous incertitudes du retrait de la région de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique en contact avec le lit rocheux. Dans le cadre de la première contribution, nous réalisons de nouvelles projections probabilistes de la réponse de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique au changement climatique au cours des prochains siècles à l'aide du modèle numérique f.ETISh. Nous appliquons des méthodes du domaine de la quantification des incertitudes au modèle numérique f.ETISh afin d'étudier l'impact de différentes sources d'incertitude sur la réponse continentale de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique. Les sources d'incertitude étudiées sont relatives au forçage atmosphérique, au glissement basal, à la paramétrisation du flux à la ligne d'ancrage, au vêlage, à la fonte sous les barrières de glace, à la rhéologie des barrières de glace et à la relaxation du lit rocheux. Nous réalisons de nouvelles projections probabilistes de la contribution de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique à l'augmentation future du niveau des mers; nous réalisons une analyse de sensibilité afin de déterminer les sources d'incertitude les plus influentes; et nous réalisons de nouvelles projections probabilistes du retrait de la région de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique en contact avec le lit rocheux.Dans le cadre de la seconde contribution, nous étudions la quantification des incertitudes sur les caractéristiques géométriques de la réponse spatiale de modèles physiques numériques dans le cadre de la théorie des ensembles aléatoires. Dans le cadre de la théorie des ensembles aléatoires, nous développons le concept de régions de confiance qui contiennent ou bien sont inclus dans un ensemble d'excursion de la réponse spatiale du modèle numérique avec un niveau donné de probabilité. Afin d'estimer ces régions de confiance, nous proposons de formuler l'estimation de ces régions de confiance dans une famille d'ensembles paramétrés comme un problème d'estimation de quantiles d'une variable aléatoire et nous proposons une nouvelle méthode de type multifidélité pour estimer ces quantiles. Finalement, nous démontrons l'efficacité de cette nouvelle méthode dans le cadre d'une application relative au retrait de la région de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique en contact avec le lit rocheux. En plus de ces deux contributions principales, nous contribuons à deux travaux de recherche additionnels. D'une part, nous contribuons à un travail de recherche relatif au calcul des indices de Sobol en analyse de sensibilité dans le cadre de petits ensembles de données à l'aide d'une nouvelle méthode d'apprentissage probabiliste sur des variétés géométriques. D'autre part, nous fournissons une comparaison multimodèle de différentes projections de la contribution de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique à l'augmentation du niveau des mers. / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Ice sheets, such as the Greenland Ice Sheet or Antarctic Ice Sheet, have a fundamental impact on landscape formation, the global climate system, and on sea level rise. The slow, creeping flow of ice can be represented by a non-linear version of the Stokes equations, which treat ice as a non-Newtonian, viscous fluid. Large spatial domains combined with long time spans and complexities such as a non-linear rheology, make ice sheet simulations computationally challenging. The topic of this thesis is the efficiency and error control of large simulations, both in the sense of mathematical modelling and numerical algorithms. In the first part of the thesis, approximative models based on perturbation expansions are studied. Due to a thick boundary layer near the ice surface, some classical assumptions are inaccurate and the higher order model called the Second Order Shallow Ice Approximation (SOSIA) yields large errors. In the second part of the thesis, the Ice Sheet Coupled Approximation Level (ISCAL) method is developed and implemented into the finite element ice sheet model Elmer/Ice. The ISCAL method combines the Shallow Ice Approximation (SIA) and Shelfy Stream Approximation (SSA) with the full Stokes model, such that the Stokes equations are only solved in areas where both the SIA and SSA is inaccurate. Where and when the SIA and SSA is applicable is decided automatically and dynamically based on estimates of the modeling error. The ISCAL method provides a significant speed-up compared to the Stokes model. The third contribution of this thesis is the introduction of Radial Basis Function (RBF) methods in glaciology. Advantages of RBF methods in comparison to finite element methods or finite difference methods are demonstrated. / eSSENCE

Esta dissertação investiga o registro de conteúdo iônico do testemunho de gelo monte Johns (79°55'28"S; 94°23'18"O) obtido na Antártica Ocidental, contribuindo para o adensamento espacial de informações glacioquímicas empregadas em estudos paleoclimáticos. As concentrações de Na+ (16,6 ± 28,2 μg L-1), K+ (1,3 ± 3,7 μg L-1), Mg2+ (3,7 ± 3,7 μg L-1), Ca2+ (5,4 ± 3,4 μg L-1), Cl- (33,3 ± 43,7 μg L-1), SO42- (25,9 ± 17,7 μg L-1), NO3- (50,8 ± 18,5 μg L-1) e H3CSO3- (7,1 ± 5,4 μg L-1) foram determinadas por cromatografia iônica em 2.164 amostras para o período 1882–2008. A variabilidade sazonal de NO3- e, especialmente do nssSO42-, em antifase com Na+, possibilitou a datação pela contagem de ciclos anuais ao longo do período estudado. A identificação dos sinais vulcânicos do Krakatoa (1883), Agung (1963) e Pinatubo/Hudson (1991) foi usada para determinar horizontes de referência (datação absoluta). Eventos de aporte significativo de aerossóis foram identificados e agrupados considerando o conteúdo iônico, proveniência e estação do ano. A avaliação da proveniência dos íons e do balanço iônico mostra a origem da carga iônica: 36% é oriunda de aerossóis de sal marinho, 13% de poeira mineral, 17% de atividade biogênica marinha e 34% de produtos da reatividade química na atmosfera. É observada uma leve redução nas concentrações de Mg2+ (-0,04 μg L-1 ano-1) e K+ (-0,01 μg L-1 ano-1), e mais forte para NO3- (-0,17 μg L-1 ano-1), no período 1909–2008. A média anual da acumulação líquida de neve foi 0,21 ± 0,04 m eq. H2O no período 1882–2008 sem apresentar tendência significante. A acumulação mostra alta correspondência com dados anuais de reanálise climática, com coeficiente de correlação cruzada de +0,42 (α < 0,05) para o período 1979–2008. / This dissertation investigates the ionic content record of the mount Johns ice core (79°55'28"S; 94°23'18"W) recovered from the West Antarctica, contributing to the spatial densification of glaciochemical information used in paleoclimatic studies. The concentrations of Na+ (16.6 ± 28.2 μg L-1), K+ (1.3 ± 3.7 μg L-1), Mg2+ (3.7 ± 3.7 μg L-1), Ca2+ (5.4 ± 3.4 μg L-1), Cl- (33.3 ± 43.7 μg L-1), SO42- (25.9 ± 17.7 μg L-1), NO3- (50.8 ± 18.5 μg L-1) e H3CSO3- (7.1 ± 5.4 μg L-1) were determined by ion chromatography on 2,164 samples for the period 1882–2008. The NO3- seasonal variability and, especially, of the nssSO42- in antiphase with the Na+, allowed the counting of annual cycles over the studied period. The identification of Krakatau (1883), Agung (1963) and Pinatubo / Hudson (1991) volcanic signals was used to determine reference horizons (absolute dating). Significant aerosols events were identified and grouped considering the ionic content, provenance and season of the year. The evaluation of the ions provenance and of the ionic balance points to ionic content origin: 36% come from sea salt aerosols, 13% from mineral dust, 17% originate from marine biogenic activity and 34% are chemical reactivity products in the atmosphere. It is observed a slight reduction in the Mg2+ (-0.04 μg L-1 y-1) and K+ (-0.01 μg L-1 y-1) concentrations, and stronger in the NO3- (-0.17 μg L-1 y-1), during the 1909–2008 period. The annual mean net accumulation rate averaged 0.21 ± 0.04 m w.e. y-1 in the period 1882–2008 did not show any significant trend and shows high correspondence with climatic reanalysis data in years with data overlap, with a cross-correlation coefficient of +0.42 (α < 0.05) for the period 1979–2008.

Understanding the cause of abrupt climate change in the geologic past can help assess the potential magnitude and variability of future changes in regional and global climate. The research presented here focuses on some of the first records of hydrologic variability in the central North American continent during an interval of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (24-57 thousand years before present (ka)). Sediment core MD02-2551 from the Orca Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico, is used to document the first detailed melting history of the southern margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during MIS 3, and to record terrestrial inputs from the Mississippi River related to changes in evaporation-precipitation over the mid-continent, from 28-45 ka.Paired measurements of oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca-SST on the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (pink) are used to calculate the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater and test one of the key hypotheses for abrupt climate change. Five rvals of freshwater input from 28-45 ka do not match the abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger temperature oscillations recorded in Greenland ice. Rather, summer melting of the LIS may have occurred during Antarctic warming and likely contributed to sea-level variability during MIS 3. A detailed assessment over one of the meltwater events, using the oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of G. ruber and the deeper dwelling Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, demonstrate that meltwater was confined to the surface layers and likely had an impact on the biological pump in the Gulf of Mexico. A similar oxygen isotopic composition of seawater record determined from the year-round white G. ruber suggests that melting was not limited to the warmest summer months. The timing of LIS meltwater input is decoupled from an interval of enhanced wet conditions over the North American continent and increased Mississippi River discharge, as shown by a suite of organic and sedimentologic proxies. Increasing summer insolation on the orbital scale may have led to a northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and an intensification and westward shift in the conical position of the Bermuda High, which shuttles moisture to the North American continent and contributes to flooding in the Mississippi River drainage basin.

It is important to study subglacial environments in northern Canada for many reasons, such as to develop a more comprehensive understanding of glacial landscape development and to aid in mineral exploration. The purpose of this research is improve understanding of the Quaternary Geology of north central Hall Peninsula, Baffin Island, the subglacial dynamics record in particular, in order to provide industry with new knowledge, maps and interpretations to aid in mineral exploration. The glacial history of north-central Hall Peninsula, Baffin Island is very complex. By studying the subglacial landscape using both remote- and field- based techniques it was possible to develop a subglacial landscape map and a flowset map which highlighted areas with different glacial histories and basal thermal regimes. The subglacial dynamics and how they changed spatially and temporally shaped the landscape to what it is today with a mixture of cold, intermediate, and warm-based ice. Through mapping using remote sensing and field methods, seven glacial landform and striation directions were found and grouped into four ice flow events. The identified ice flows include regional flows, northern and eastern fjord influenced areas, central deglacial flows, and modern icecap flows. Subglacial erosion was investigated using several proxies including streamlined hill elongation ratios, streamlined hill density, and bedrock controlled lake density studies. These proxies together with the subglacial landscape map were overlaid to select discrete zones, termed glacial terrain zones (GTZs), in an attempt to analyze the subglacial dynamics and how different basal thermal regimes interacted with the landscape. Five glacial terrain zones (GTZs) were identified, with different spatio-temporal basal ice regimes and landform assemblages. The first zone (GTZ 1) is characterized by an expansive flowset of parallel paleo-flow indicators trending northeast. This zone has the highest degree of areal scour with thin, discontinuous and relatively unweathered till. The second zone, GTZ 2, is an area where the broad northeast flowset is crosscut locally by ice flow indicators that converge into troughs that now form a series of north trending fjords in the north of the study area. This overprinted landscape is found to propagate inland forming a channelized system, leading way to linear erosion. The modern icecap resides in GTZ 3, which inherited the broad northeast flowset, but is overprinted in valleys by eastern flows funneling into the fjords to the east, as well as western flows flowing from the modern icecap. In the central area, there is a rolling terrain of thicker till (GTZ 4) that is distinguished by its lack of subglacial features. The final contrasting landscape (GTZ 5) is characterized by southeast trending bedrock features (most likely enhanced by southeast flowing ice) and associated perpendicular moraines. GTZ 5 is also characterized by highly weathered bedrock, and locally by landform assemblages recording late deglacial readvances of thin lobes including moraines and striated outcrops. Geochemical studies for each of these landscapes lead to additional insights, characterizing the five zones further. The geochemical studies took advantage of two till sample databases taken over the study area for exploration purposes by Peregrine Diamonds LTD. The chemical index of alteration (CIA) was applied to compare erosion in the different zones. High CIA values indicate high weathering, where low CIA values low weathering. GTZ 1 is characterized by low CIA values (low weathering footprint), and GTZ 5 is characterized by high CIA value (highly weathered). To study if the GTZs had a distinct geochemical signature, as well as a signature landscape, multivariate geochemical statistics (Principal Component Analysis and Linear Discriminant Analysis) were done over the study area. Interestingly, it was found that the GTZs have geochemical signatures, which reflect the role of underlying bedrock, weathering patterns, glacial dispersal, and the complex relationships between subglacial dynamics and landscape evolution. To determine if the GTZs could be predicted by the till geochemistry, linear discriminant analysis was subsequently applied. The results indicate that the till geochemical data has a predictive capacity with an accuracy of 83.78%, which brings insight into the relationship between glacial landscapes and till composition. With this multi-proxy approach and building from previous studies, a conceptual model was developed for the study area. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the study area was inundated by the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), with the Hall Ice Divide parallel to the axis of the peninsula with ice flowing from the divide to the northeast and southwest. As ice thinned, GTZ 1, an area once inundated with warm-based ice, as shown by evidence of areal scour and low CIA values, switched to being cold-based ice preserving an older landscape. Though GTZ 1 was under cold-based ice, warm-based conditions still prevailed within the channelized flow zones, which characterize GTZ 2. Evidence of this is found in the striation record, as well as the low CIA value indicative of low weathering (or high erosion). This may reflect a transition from LGM (thick-based ice) to thinner, topographically controlled ice, with cold-based ice in interfluves and hilltops, during early deglaciation. The catchment zones of the channelized system locally extend near the central area (GTZ 4) which is reflected in dispersal patterns and the striation record. As the LIS retreated, it went through a series of southeastward readvances and surges (GTZ 5). Though the ice was warm-based near the moraines in GTZ 5, prevailing cold-based conditions prevailed during most of the last glacial cycle, and the late deglacial readvances had limited erosion capacity and did not overprint the cold-based landscape significantly. This is shown by the CIA values indicative of high weathering, and lack of subglacial landforms. Series of pro-glacial lakes also formed in front of the retreating lobe. Ice is needed over GTZ 1 to prevent these lakes from draining northward. This thin ice was most likely cold-based, preserving the older GTZ 1 landscape of areal scouring. The glacial landscape of Hall Peninsula appears to record a switch from uniform warm-based LGM ice, which was laterally extensive, to localized channel flows in the fjords during deglaciation and intervening cold-based ice. The change in the geometry and basal thermo-mechanical conditions may be the prologue to the separation of the modern day ice cap from the LIS.

New relative sea-level (RSL) observations dating from the late Pleistocene and early Holocene, during and after the collapse of the Cordilleran ice-sheet (CIS), are provided for two regions in southern coastal British Columbia. They record the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) response of the Earth to the changing surface load of the waning CIS. The data provide a new RSL curve for Sechelt, on the mainland coast north of Vancouver, and extend and revise a previously constructed curve for Barkley Sound on the west coast of Vancouver Island. The observations create a new profile of RSL curves oriented southwest-northeast across Vancouver Island and the Strait of Georgia. A previously-defined profile of RSL curves is oriented northwest-southeast profile along the east coast of Vancouver Island. The two profiles intersect in the central Strait of Georgia. The new RSL curves sample different parts of the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) and provide constraints on the history of the CIS. The Juan de Fuca plate subducts beneath the North American plate in roughly the same southwest to northeast direction as the RSL profile. GIA modelling of the RSL observations along this profile may indicate spatial variations related to the structure of the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). The CIS flowed roughly from northeast to southwest over the regions of interest. RSL observations along this path indicate how sea-level change differed with distance from the edge of the ice-sheet towards its centre. The CIS model of James et al. (2009b) is refined to fit observed sea levels while applying glacial geological constraints to regional ice sheet advance and retreat. Sea level in Barkley Sound dropped from greater than 27 m elevation before 15 cal kyr BP to -46 m below present around 12 cal kyr BP. At Sechelt, sea level closely follows the same trend as in the central Strait of Georgia, dropping from over 150 m before 14 cal kyr BP and falling past present levels after 12.4 cal kyr BP to a poorly constrained lowstand between 12 and 9 cal kyr BP. The initial crustal uplift rate near Sechelt was at least 85 mm/yr, comparable to that of the central Strait of Georgia. The sea-level observations are best fit with predictions employing an Earth model with a 60-km effective lithosphere thickness and asthenospheric viscosity and thickness of 4 × 1019 Pa s and 380 km, respectively. The transition zone and lower mantle viscosities are based on the VM2 Earth model (Peltier 2002). Sea level in Barkley Sound fell quickly (15-30 mm/yr), and observed sea level is best fit with the same asthenospheric viscosity, but with a thinner 30-km thick lithosphere, consistent with the regional tectonic structure. Revisions to the ice model are consistent with radiocarbon constraints on ice sheet history and provide good agreement with the observed sea-level history for the study regions as well as RSL histories previously described for the Strait of Georgia and southern Vancouver Island. / Graduate / 0372