本文使用分量處理效果方法，分析通貨膨脹目標政策對通貨膨脹的影響。 依據Svensson (1997)與Orphanides and Wilcox (2002)的理論可知，當通貨膨脹低於目標區間時，通貨膨脹目標政策對通貨膨脹具有正向的效果；當通貨膨脹高於目標區間時，具有負向的效果；而當通貨膨脹位於目標區間時，效果微弱。本文利用1980年--2010年17個國家的年資料作實證分析。實證結果發現，通貨膨脹目標政策在不同分量的通貨膨脹下對通貨膨脹的影響有所不同。當通貨膨脹低的時候，通貨膨脹目標政策對通貨膨脹具有正向效果；然而，當通貨膨脹高的時候，具有負向效果，且隨著通貨膨脹的上升，負向效果有增強的趨勢。此結果與前述理論一致。 即使考慮刪去高通貨膨脹國家、將不同開發程度的國家分開討論、不同的資料期間和不同的政策開始時間，均得到類似的結果。

Cette dissertation intitulé « Essays in the Political Economy of Inflation » est compris de trois papiers qui étudient le problème d'inflation d'une perspective politique-institutionnel. Tous les trois essais appliquent des outils techniques modernes de macroéconomie pour étudier des facteurs différents qui affectent le choix de politiques. Il est montré que ces facteurs sont cruciaux dans former la structure de gouvernance favorable pour l'efficacité de politique. L'environnement politique-économique complexe est difficile d'étudier avec les modèles traditionnels de politique économique fondée sur un projeteur social bienveillant qui maximise l'utilité d'un individu représentatif. Cette thèse, donc, approche l'économie politique d'inflation d'un côté pratique réaliste.Le premier essai a autorisé «Taxing the unobservable: The impact of shadow economy oninflation and taxes», est motivé par plusieurs études théoriques et empiriques qui se dispute que le taux d'inflation optimal augmente dans la taille de l'économie simple. Dans ce papier, nous construisons un petit modèle théorique qui a deux composants clés. Premièrement, il modèle explicitement le choix du gouvernement pour l'impôt de revenu ou inflation. Notre cadre est général et n'impose pas de la condition de la nature du gouvernement (i.e., il n'exige pas le gouvernement pour être nécessairement bienveillant ou corrompu). Deuxièmement, nous considérons explicitement l'économie l’informel (shadow economy) dans la fonction du gouvernement objectif. Il nous permet de voir comment il influe la charge fiscale et l'inflation. Notre modèle théorique indique un coût marginal croissant d'impôts et un taux croissant d'inflation dans l'économie d'ombre (shadow economy). Le principe de remplacement marginal rationalise le choix du gouvernement d'impôt d'inflation sur l'impôt sur le revenu. / This dissertation titled “Essays in the Political Economy of Inflation” is comprised of three papers which study the problem of inflation from a political-institutional perspective. All the three essays apply modern technical tools of macroeconomics to study different factors that affect the choice of policies. It is shown that these factors are crucial in shaping the governance structure conducive for policy effectiveness. The complex political-economic environment is difficult to study with traditional models of economic policy based on a benevolent social planner maximizing the utility of a representative individual. This thesis, therefore, approaches the political economy of inflation from a realistic practical side. The first essay titled “Taxing the unobservable: The impact of shadow economy oninflation and taxes”, is motivated from several theoretical and empirical studies which argue that optimal inflation rate increases in the size of informal economy. In this paper, we construct a small theoretical model that has two key components. First, it explicitly models the government’s choice for income or inflation tax. Our framework is general and does not impose any condition about the nature of the government (i.e., it does not require government to be necessarily benevolent or corrupt). Secondly, we explicitly consider the shadow economy in the government’s objective function. It allows us to see how it impacts the tax burden and inflation. Our theoretical model indicates an increasing marginal cost of taxes and an increasing rate of inflation in the shadow economy. The principle of marginal substitution rationalizes the government’s choice of inflation tax over income tax.

Thesis (M. Com. (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2017 / Investment as one of the important macroeconomic variables can ensure infrastructure development and growth in the economy by raising the productive capacity. The study seeks to examine the determinants of investment activity in South Africa by means of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression approach. The results of this study could assist policy makers to come up with policies that could encourage investment. The findings will add to the existing theory and knowledge as there is limited research on investment, more especially in South Africa. The empirical results revealed that the long and short run relationship exists amongst the variables under investigation. Furthermore, it was found that there is positive relationship between economic growth, interest rate, inflation and investment. Taxation and investment are negatively related in South Africa both in the long and short run. This indicates that investment activity can be explained by tax, economic growth, interest rates and inflation. The study recommend that the government should also find methods of increasing its revenue base. This could be done by creating a tax policy and system that is able to capture the informal sector because various un-registered businesses go unrecorded when estimating the tax to be collected in a fiscal year. This may be another way of increasing the level economic growth (GDP) since it will generate more fund for government to spend. KEY CONCEPTS: Gross fixed capital formation, Economic growth, taxation, interest rates, inflation.

MSc (Statistics) / Department of Statistics / Over the years researchers have been modeling inflation rate in Ghana using linear models such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Moving Average (MA). Empirical research however, has shown that financial data, such as inflation rate, does not follow linear patterns. This study seeks to model and forecast inflation in Ghana using nonlinear models and to establish the existence of nonlinear patterns in the monthly rates of inflation between the period January 1981 to August 2016 as obtained from Ghana Statistical Service. Nonlinearity tests were conducted using Keenan and Tsay tests, and based on the results, we rejected the null hypothesis of linearity of monthly rates of inflation. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) was performed to test for the presence of stationarity. The test rejected the null Hypothesis of unit root at 5% significant level, and hence we can conclude that the rate of inflation was stationary over the period under consideration. The data were transformed by taking the logarithms to follow nornal distribution, which is a desirable characteristic feature in most time series. Monthly rates of inflation were modeled using threshold models and their fitness and forecasting performance were compared with Autoregressive (AR ) models. Two Threshold models: Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) and Logistic Smooth Threshold Autoregressive (LSTAR) models, and two linear models: AR(1) and AR(2), were employed and fitted to the data. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were used to assess each of the fitted models such that the model with the minimum value of AIC and BIC, was judged the best model. Additionally, the fitted models were compared according to their forecasting performance using a criterion called mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The model with the minimum MAPE emerged as the best forecast model and then the model was used to forecast monthly inflation rates for the year 2017. The rationale for choosing this type of model is contingent on the behaviour of the time-series data. Also with the history of inflation modeling and forecasting, nonlinear models have proven to perform better than linear models. The study found that the SETAR and LSTAR models fit the data best. The simple AR models however, out-performed the nonlinear models in terms of forecasting. Lastly, looking at the upward trend of the out-sample forecasts, it can be predicted that Ghana would experience double digit inflation in 2017. This would have several impacts on many aspects of the economy and could erode the economic gains i made in the year 2016. Our study has important policy implications for the Central Bank of Ghana which can use the data to put in place coherent monetary and fiscal policies that would put the anticipated increase in inflation under control.

Cette thèse est pour le but final d’estimer avec succès un indice d’inflation sous-jacente donnant les meilleures prévisions de l’inflation au Vietnam. D’un point de vue méthodologie, cette thèse s’appuie sur les démarches qualitatives afin de mesurer un indice d’inflation sous-jacente pour l’économie vietnamienne. Les différentes méthodes pour mesurer l’inflation sous-jacente ont été utilisées. La structure de cette thèse est établie en accord étroitement avec nos objectifs de recherche. L’introduction générale présente un aperçu général du sujet de recherche. Le chapitre 1 est à l’appui sur l’explication de la nature de l’inflation sous-jacente. Les chapitres 2 et 3 portent sur les mesures de l’inflation sous-jacente et les applications dans le cas du Vietnam. Les mesures statistiques – qui sont familière dans les banques centrales à travers le monde – sont reportées dans le chapitre 2. Le chapitre 3 présente les modèles économétriques qui aident à estimer l’inflation sous-jacente (le modèle SVAR de Quad-Vahey, le modèle à tendances communes et le modèle à composantes inobservables). Chaque mesure est également étudiée et reportée dans le processus suivant : d’abord, la notion d’inflation sous-jacente ; puis, la littérature de base de cette notion d’inflation sous-jacente ; ensuite, les techniques d’estimation de l’inflation sous-jacente et enfin, l’application de cette mesure dans le cas du Vietnam. Les indices d’inflation sous-jacente obtenus aux chapitres 2 et 3 sont examinés, analysés et comparés les uns aux autres. Les tests sont reportés dans le chapitre 4. La conclusion générale résume les résultats finaux de ce travail de recherche.Le résultat officiel de ce travail est un ensemble de dix indices d’inflation sous-jacente qui satisfont à toutes les propriétés attendues et qui semblent optimaux pour la prévision d’inflation. Un autre résultat qui va au-delà de nos attentes, est que parmi ces dix indices, l’un d’entre eux possède un double fonction, à savoir un indice prédictif de l’inflation et un indice de référence de l’inflation. Cet indice possède un pouvoir prédictif élevé et semble pouvoir être largement accepté par le grand publie comme leur indice de référence. Un autre apport supplémentaire de cette thèse est les remarques concernant la technique d’estimation de l’inflation sous-jacente appropriée dans le cas du Vietnam. / This thesis focuses on concepts, structures and evaluation of core inflation index for the Vietnam economy. The final purpose of the research is to estimate the core inflation index which enable to provide the best prediction of the Vietnam inflation. From the point of view of methodology, the thesis highlights on the qualitative approaches in order to measure the core inflation index for the Vietnam economy. The different methods have been used as follows: First, the pure statistical measurements such as trimmed mean, exclusion, median, weighted median and reduced - weighted average... and a more sophisticated method, i.e. the dynamic factor model. This model helps to capture the dynamic of an underlying factor which generates the tendency of inflation. Secondly, the three econometric models include SVAR model developed by Quah-Vahey, common trend model and unobservable components model. These models facilitate to better integrate the macroeconomic theory into measurement of core inflation. The later model is selected to overcome the disadvantages of the former one.The structure of the thesis is established in accordance with our research objectives. The introduction presents a brief overview of the research subject. The first chapter discusses the core inflation nature. The chapters 2 and 3 analyze the core inflation measurements and their applications in the case of Vietnam. The statistic measures that are more familiar with central banks in the world are presented in the chapter 2. The third one presents in details the three econometric models. Each measure is studied and presented in the following process: (i) the notion of core inflation, (ii) its theorical background (iii) the estimation techniques and (iv) the application of these measures into the Vietnam data.The obtained core inflation indexes are examined, analyzed and compared to each other. Its results are reported in the chapter 4. The general conclusion sums up the final results of this research. The official result of the study is a set of ten core inflation indexes which responds all the expected properties and seem optimal for the inflation forecasts. Another result that goes beyond our expectation is that one of these ten indexes has a dual function i.e. a good predictor of inflation and a public index of inflation. A supplementary contribution of this thesis is a list of important remarks concerning the estimation technique of core inflation that is applicable in the case of Vietnam.

This thesis investigates the impact of a more digitised economy on the inflation rate. European countries have historically done well in reaching their inflation target. In recent years however, policymakers have been puzzled over low inflation rates that seem to be difficult to stimulate. Just recently the impact of digitisation on price stability has gained some interest in economic research however the lack of empirical evidence on this relationship is severe. Based on scarce literature and existing theories hypotheses were constructed to test certain digitisation channels effect on the inflation rate. By gathering relevant data on inflation and the identified digitisation channels for 17 European countries over an 11- year period, econometric models corresponding to the hypotheses were analysed. The estimated results show that digitisation have a varying net-effect on the inflation rate, demonstrating that digitisation plays a role in determining fluctuations in price stability when controlling for other macroeconomic factors. These findings indicate that policymakers should consider digital technological development when targeting inflation, even though the effects may be temporary.

This manuscript is composed of three chapters.In the first chapter, I analyze the impact of key European Central Bank’s unconventional monetary policy announcements on inflation expectations, measured by Euro Area five-year Inflation Linked Swap rates five years ahead, since the aftermath of the crisis. I control for market liquidity and uncertainty measures, change in oil price shock and macroeconomic news. The results show that the impact of the European Central Bank’s announcements has been positive during the period under observation. Along the line of the expansionary monetary policy measures implemented, the agents have been revising upwards their long term inflation expectations. This means that the unconventional monetary policy measures were effective. In the second chapter, co-authored with Claudia Pacella, we construct a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with three layers of information: the key drivers of inflation, cross-country dynamic interactions, and country-specific variables. The model provides good forecasting accuracy with respect to the popular benchmarks used in the literature. We perform a step-by-step analysis to shed light on which layer of information is more crucial for accurately forecasting euro area inflation. Our empirical analysis reveals the importance of including the key drivers of inflation and taking into account the multi-country dimension of the euro area. The results show that the complete model performs better overall in forecasting inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food over the medium-term. We use the model to establish stylized facts on the euro area and cross-country heterogeneity over the business cycle. In the third chapter, using confidential firm-level data from the National Bank of Belgium, I document the heterogeneous response of firms’ markups to the 2008 financial crisis. Overall, markups increased in the aftermath of the crisis and the effect was larger for highly financially constrained firms. I show that standard heterogeneous-firm models, featuring monopolistic competition and variable markups, are unable to replicate these patterns. I then introduce endogenous demand shifters which respond to firm investment in market share (e.g. quality). I show that the interaction of an increase in the cost of procuring inputs combined with an endogenous quality downgrading can rationalize the observed changes in firm-level markups. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The vacuum of quantum field theory is not empty space but filled with quantum vacuum fluctuations, which give rise to many intriguing effects. The first part of this Thesis addresses cosmic inflation, where the quantum fluctuations of the inflaton field freeze and get amplified in the expanding universe. Afterwards, we turn our attention towards Bose-Einstein condensates, a laboratory system. Since most of our calculations are performed using a mean-field expansion, we will study the accuracy of a finite-range interaction potential onto such an expansion. Exploiting the universality of quantum fluctuations, several aspects of cosmic inflation will be identified in ballistically expanding Bose-Einstein condensates. The effective action technique for calculating the quantum backreaction will be scrutinized. Finally, we consider dynamic quantum phase transitions in the last part of this Thesis. To this end two specific scenarios will be investigated: firstly, the structure formation during the superfluid to Mott-insulator transition in the Bose-Hubbard model; and secondly, the formation of spin domains as a two-dimensional spin-one Bose gas is quenched from the (polar) paramagnetic to the (planar) ferromagnetic phase. During this quench, the symmetry of the ground state is spontaneously broken and vortices (topological defects) form.

De svenska fastighetsbolagen har en stor betydelse för den svenska finansiella stabiliteten. Dessa bolag står för omkring 10–25 procent av de svenska bankernas privata utlåning. När inflationen ökar innebär det även att utlåningsräntorna ökar, vilket påverkar fastighetsbolagen betalningsförmåga och på så sätt även det svenska finansiella systemet. Riksbanken ökar styrräntan i syfte att minska fluktuationer i den svenska ekonomin, däremot innebär en ökad ränta att investeringsefterfrågan minskar då risken ökar som i sin tur innebär att avkastningskraven blir högre och fastighetsvärden lägre. Inflationens påverkan på fastighetsbolagens finansiella beslutsfattande är mångdimensionellt då det påverkar deras finansierings- och investeringsbeslut. Den låga räntenivån som uppstod efter finanskrisen 2008–2009 innebar att fastighetsbolag började vända sig till kapitalmarknaden mer än till bankerna, på grund av gynnsamma finansieringsvillkor. Denna studie syftar till att beskriva hur fastighetsbolagens finansiella beslutsfattande påverkas av den ökade inflationsnivån. Studiens utförande var en deskriptiv tvärsnittsstudie med sex fastighetsbolag som undersökningsobjekt. Primärdata som samlats in har hämtats från de semistrukturerade intervjuer som utförts i syfte att besvara forskningsfrågan. Sekundärdata i form av årsrapporter och litteratur har inhämtats för att i analysen förklara och skapa förståelse för primärdata. Studiens resultat påvisar att fastighetsbolagen agerar utifrån ett rationellt beslutsfattande, men att investerarna på kapitalmarknaden och säljarna på fastighetsmarknaden agerar irrationellt. Rationaliteten utformas av att bolagen aktivt väljer att finansiellt arbeta långsiktigt och försiktigt i syfte att gardera sig för förändrade marknadsförhållanden. Kapital- och fastighetsmarknadens irrationella tendenser utformas av att det råder asymmetrisk information till följd av den ökade inflationsnivå, vilket skapar osäkerheter och informationsövertag för bolagen gentemot investerare och säljare. Sammanfattningsvis dras slutsatsen att räntenivån är en viktig faktor som påverkar bolagens finansiella beslutsfattande. Slutsatsen bygger på att räntenivån påverkar lånevillkoren för både banklån och kapitalfinansiering, vilket vidare påverkar hur bolagen väljer finansiera sig under förändrade marknadsförhållanden. / The real estate companies are of great importance for Swedish financial stability. These companies account for around 10-25 percent of the Swedish banks´ private lending. An increased inflation results in increased lending rates which effects the commercial real estate companies’ ability to pay back the loans and thus also the Swedish financial system. The Riksbank increases the policy rate when inflation reaches higher levels to reduce fluctuations in the Swedish economy. However, an increased rate leads to lower investment demand because of the growing risk, which in turn means that yield requirements increase, and property values lowers. The impact of inflation on the real estate companies´ financial decision-making is multidimensional as it affects their financial and investment decision. The low level of interest rates that arose after the financial crisis of 2008-2009 meant that real estate companies began to turn to the capital market more than to the banks, due to favourable financing decisions. This study aims to describe how the real estate companies´ financial decision-making is affected by the increased level of inflation. The study carried out a descriptive cross-sectional study with six real estate companies as subjects of investigation. The primary data collected has been taken from the semi-structured interviews conducted to answer to research question. Secondary data in the form of annual reports and literature have been collected to explain and create an understanding of the primary data in the analysis. The results of the study demonstrate that the real estate companies act based on rational decision-making while investors and sellers act irrational. The rationality is shaped by the fact that the companies actively choose to work financially long-term and cautiously to guard against changing market conditions. The capital- and real estate markets irrational tendencies are shaped by heightened asymmetric information that is a result of the increased level of inflation. Asymmetric information creates uncertainties and information superiority for the companies in relation to investors and seller. In summary, the study concludes that the interest rate is an important factor that affects companies´ financial decision-making. The conclusion is based on that the interest rate affects the loan terms for both bank loans and capital financing, which further influences how the companies choose to finance themselves under changed market conditions.

Denna studie har undersökt hur digitaliseringen påverkar kundretention i dagligvaruhandeln vilket är ett intressant och aktuellt ämne. I dagens samhälle där det råder mycket osäkerhet kring världsekonomin vilket markant påverkar konsumenters privatekonomi och livsmedelsindustrin, har det varit intressant att undersöka konsumenters köpbeteende och reaktioner till ekonomikrisen. På grund av hur dagligvaruhandeln ser ut har det varit relevant att undersöka hur konsumenter svarar på företags tillämpning av digitala verktyg för att optimera kundretention.  För att besvara undersökningens syfte utfördes en empirisk studie. En litteraturstudie har utförts för att undersöka det studerande fenomenet samt vad tidigare forskning har resulterat i. Efter litteraturstudien tillämpades en enkätundersökning som vidare sammanställdes för att analyseras i statistikprogrammet IBM SPSS. I SPSS skapades bivariata analyser i form av korstabellsanalys, korrelationsanalys och regressionsanalys för att skapa och identifiera korrelationer och samband mellan de undersökta variablerna.  Studiens resultat visar att kombinationen av pris, geografiskt läge samt erbjudanden och rabatter är betydande faktorer för kundretention. Studien visar även att digitaliseringen har en betydande effekt på kundretention. Teknologins ständiga utveckling bidrar till implementering av nya verktyg som effektiviserar hanteringen av kunddata för att stärka kundrelationer och öka kundretention. / This thesis has studied how digitization affects customer retention in the grocery trade, which is an interesting and relevant topic. In today's society, where there is much uncertainty surrounding the world economy, which significantly affects consumers' private finances and the food industry, has it been interesting to examine consumers' buying behavior and reactions to the economic crisis. Due to the circumstances in the grocery trade, has it been relevant to study how consumers respond to companies' application of digital tools to optimize customer retention. In order to answer the purpose of the survey, an empirical study was carried out. A literature study has been carried out to investigate the studied phenomenon and what previous research has resulted in. After the literature study, a questionnaire survey was applied which was further set to be analyzed in the statistical program IBM SPSS. In SPSS, bivariate analyzes were created in the form of cross-tabulation analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis to create and identify correlations and connections between the studied variables. The results of the study show that the combination of price, location, offers and discounts are significant factors for customer retention. The study also shows that digitization has a significant effect on customer retention. The constant development of technology contributes to the implementation of new tools that streamline the handling of customer data to strengthen customer relationships and increase customer retention.