This thesis consists of four chapters on economic performance and social conflicts in Chinese history. The first chapter examines the impact of a major tax reform on protests in the eighteenth century in China. The de jure effect of this reform was to increase the tax burden on the gentry and decrease the tax burden on commoners, yet the de facto effect is under debate. I combine multiple databases into an annual panel dataset from 1700 to 1750 and use detailed information on protest to identify income shocks and tax incidence. The regression results after controlling for provincial fixed effects and national shocks show that the tax reform increased local protests by 0.3 incidents per year, which equals to half a standard deviation before the reform started. Further examination suggests that the de facto effects of the reform hurt commoners rather than the gentry. First, it increased protests by commoners but had no effects on protests by the gentry. Second, provinces with more gentry landlords also had larger increases in the frequency of protests. These results support that the gentry managed to pass the increased tax burdens on to the commoners. This analysis provides quantitative evidence that links social standing and tax burdens in pre-modern society. The second chapter studies the effect of income shocks on different types of conflicts. I consider two types of conflicts: protests, such as grain crises, that requested actions by the government, and revolutionary activities that aimed to overthrow the central government. From 1902 to 1911, China experienced both types of conflicts. I use a detailed record of local conflicts to identify the causes and leaders of each conflict. Combining this information with exogenous price shocks from the international agricultural market, I find that negative income shocks coming from drops in the export price of tea and the increases in the import price of cotton tended to increase the overall frequency of conflicts in general and protests that requested actions from the government. However, the same negative income shocks sometimes reduced revolutionary activities, which was probably caused by the shortage of resources in organizing these activities. These finding suggest an ``income effect'' on conflicts, probably due to the resources needed to organize the activities. The third chapter examines the impact of civil wars on the local economy using newly documented information about civil wars across regions in early-twentieth century China. During this period, China was de facto divided into several regions. Each region was controlled by different warlords or political groups. Warlords fought with each other for a larger territory. I first quantitatively document the scale, timing, and location of these civil wars. Around sixty violent civil wars took place from 1911 to 1934 and 25% of the Chinese counties in my sample were involved in at least one battle. I then examine the impact of civil wars on local economic activities. I find that civil wars overall caused a small negative impact on international trade flows and a 12.1% drop in rural land values. When the results are separated into wars by political groups, the wars involving weak political groups led to 1.7% to 3.8% drop in international trade flows, while the ones by strong political groups had small positive impact on trade flows. Similarly, wars conducted by the powerful incumbent had no negative impact on land values, while the ones between the KMT and the CCP led to a 30% drop in land values. Combined with narrative evidence, the results suggest that incumbent or political groups might have protect trade or reduced harm to the local economy if they relied on tariff or land taxes to finance themselves. The fourth chapter examines the impact of World War I on the Chinese economy. The war largely increased the freight rates in international trade and decreased China's imports of manufactured products from the European countries. I combine data from multiple sources to quantify the development of China's industrial sector and changes in agricultural input prices during and after the war. The firm-level information from the textile industries shows that the textile firms expanded during the war, and the trend continued even after. Using John Buck's survey on land values and labor wages across China, I find that the growing industrial sector also raised agricultural input prices by increasing demand for raw cotton and rural laborers. However, the benefits were small and the impact was clustered around the ports.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2002 / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: After the end of the Cold War hopes were high for a freer, fairer new world order. This did not happen. What the world got instead was globalisation - a complex phenomenon born from the interaction of political and economic liberalisation and technological change. Much of the impetus behind globalisation was derived from the prescriptions of the so-called Washington Consensus, which given its powerful influence in developing countries forced them to integrate into the global economy - to the point that integration became a virtual substitute for development policy. The benefits of globalisation were unevenly spread around the world and those who had most, stood to gain most from it. While Multinational Corporations and inhabitants of the developed world were definite winners the losers included workers, the environment and financial market stability. As the full impact of globalisation was beginning to be felt criticism of the process emerged particularly, but not exclusively, from the NGO community and left-leaning commentators. These critics are diverse and do not have much in common, but have at times created alliances of convenience. Most critics however agree that international organisations play an important part in globalisation and that in order to impact on globalisation they would have to impact on these organisations. A particularly abundant area of criticism relates to the threats posed to the global commons. There is very little agreement though on how to deal with the threats. Suggestions range from a return to subsistence production and disengagement from the international trade system to using market forces and new technologies to benefit the global environment. Among the organisations with most critics are the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. A variety of factors contribute to the need for international financial institutions reform. These include: the blurring of their missions; the ineffectiveness of their assistance; and lack of transparency and accountability. The international financial institutions have however been remarkably effective at shielding themselves from calls for reform. The reasons for this are not only political (lack of agreement on required reforms) but also institutional (management siding with powerful stakeholders or pursuing their own agenda). The World Trade Organisation is another target of criticism. As with the international financial institutions the exact nature of future reforms is impossible to surmise, nevertheless environmental and development issues are certainly on the agenda. Decision-making is also likely to be revisited, with the focus being on reconciling effectiveness with representativeness. What is least likely to happen though is what is most needed - a thorough assessment of the World Trade ..Organisation's role in global governance and its relations with other institutions. This will not be possible without a rebalancing of power between the World Trade Organisation and international financial institutions on one side, and the UN family of institutions on the other. Reforming current systems of global governance may also involve creating new organisations. While there are a host of institutions active in global governance there is no formal mechanism to coordinate their efforts. This is where a UN Economic Security Council can playa major role, not least because such a body would give the international system a degree of legitimacy that it has so far lacked. A World Central Bank is however not an institution likely to be seen in the foreseeable future - it is too complex and many states will not give up monetary sovereignty as it impacts on too many other policy areas. It is widely acknowledged that a Currency Transaction Tax will go a considerable way in stabilising the international monetary system, while at the same time raising funds to finance global development. It is an elegant solution that is gaining political support worldwide. The institutional arrangements for its implementation and collection are however still subject to much debate. These are only a few possible ways in which the global economy may be reformed in the short to medium term. In the long term the most likely outcome is a loosely structured web of institutions that together form something akin to global federalism / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Na die einde van die Koue Oorlog is groot hoop gekoester vir 'n vryer, regverdiger nuwe wêreld orde. Dit het nooit gebeur nie. Instede daarvan het die wêreld globalisering gekry - 'n komplekse verskynsel gebore uit die interaksie van politieke en ekonomiese liberalisering en tegnologiese verandering. 'n Groot deel van die impetus agter globalisering het sy ontstaan in die voorskrifte van die sogenaamde Washington Konsensus, wat gegewe sy invloed in die ontwikkelende wêreld baie state gedwing het om in die wêreldekonomie te integreer - tot die punt dat integrasie byna 'n alternatief vir ontwikkelingsbeleid geword het. Die voordele van globalisering was ongelyk versprei, en die wat meeste gehad het, het gestaan om meeste voordeel daaruit te trek. Terwyl multinasionale maatskappye en inwoners van die ontwikkelde wêreld ongetwyfelde wenners was, was werkers, die omgewing en finansiële mark stabiliteit onder die verloorders. Soos wat die impak van globalisering meer en meer gevoel is het dit ook kritiek ontlok, veral - maar nie alleenlik - uit nie-regeringsorganisasie kringe en van linksgesinde kommentators. Alhoewel hierdie kritici nie veel in gemeen het nie, het hulle by tye gemaksalliansies gevorm. Die meeste kritici stem egter saam dat internasionale organisasies 'n belangrike rol speel in globalisering en dat om 'n impak op globalisering te maak dit nodig is om 'n impak op hierdie organisasies te maak. 'n Besonder vrugbare area van kritiek hou verband met bedreigings tot die sogenaamde "globale meent". Daar is egter baie min instemming oor hoe om die bedreigings te hanteer. Voorstelle wissel van 'n terugkeer na bestaansproduksie en terugtrede van die internasionale handelstelsel tot die gebruik van mark kragte en nuwe tegnologie tot voordeel van die wêreld omgewing. Onder die organisasies met van die meeste kritici is die Internasionale Monetêre Fonds en die Wêreld Bank. 'n Verskeidenheid faktore dra by tot die behoefte aan hervorming van die internasionale finansiële instellings. Hierdie sluit in: die verwarring van hulle onderskeie missies, die oneffektiwiteit van hulle bystand, en 'n gebrek aan deursigtigheid en verantwoording. Die internasionale finansiële instellings is egter besonder effektief daarin om hulself van oproepe om hervorming te isoleer. Die redes hiervoor is nie net polities nie (gebrek aan ooreenstemming oor vereiste hervormings) maar ook institusioneel (bestuur kies kant met invloedryke rolspelers of streef hul eie agenda na). Die Wêreld Handelsorganisasie is nog 'n teiken van kritiek. Soos met die internasionale finansiële instellings is dit nie moontlik om die presiese aard van moontlike hervormings te raai nie, desnieteenstaande is omgewings- en ontwikkellingskwessies definitief op die agenda. So ook is besluitneming, met die doel om effektiwiteit en verteenwoordigendheid te versoen. Wat egter mees nodig is, is mins waarskynlik om te gebeur - 'n deurtastende ondersoek na die rol van die Wêreld Handelsorganisasie in wêreld besluitneming en sy verhoudings met ander internasionale instellings. Verandering in hierdie opsig is egter nie moontlik sonder 'n herbalansering van tussen die Wêreld Handelsorganisasie en die internasionale finansiële instellings aan die een kant en die VN familie van instellings aan die ander nie. Hervorming van huidige stelsels van wêreld besluitneming mag ook die skepping van nuwe organisasies behels. Terwyl daar etlike aktiewe organisasies in wêreld besluitneming is, is daar geen formele meganisme om hul aktiwiteite te koordineer nie. In hierdie opsig kan 'n VN Ekonomiese Veiligheidsraad 'n belangrike rol speel, veral omdat so 'n instelling 'n mate van legitimiteit aan die internasionale stelsel kan gee wat dit tot dusver nie gehad het nie. 'n Wêreld Sentrale Bank is egter 'n instelling wat nie in die voorsienbare toekoms die lig sal sien nie - dis te kompleks en baie state sal nie monetêre soewereiniteit wil prysgee nie omrede dit op te veel ander beleidsareas impakteer. Dit word wyd erken dat 'n buitelandse valuta transaksie belasting 'n beduidende stabiliserende invloed op die internasionale monetêre stelsel kan hê, terwyl dit terselfdertyd fondse sal in vir wêreld ontwikkeling. Dis 'n elegante oplossing waarvoor politieke steun wêreldwyd opbou. Die institusionele vergestalting wat benodig word om so 'n belasting te implementeer en administreer is egter nog die onderwerp van vurige debatte. Hierdie is slegs 'n paar van die moontlike maniere waarop die wêreldekonomie oor die kort- tot mediumtermyn hervorm kan word. Oor die langtermyn is die mees waarskynlike uitkoms iets soortgelyk aan 'n losweg gestruktureerde web van instellings wat soortgelyk aan 'n vorm van globale federalisme is.

published_or_final_version / abstract / Law / Master / Doctor of Legal Studies

Food safety scares affect consumption behavior, and food safety and animal health issues are increasingly impacting international agricultural trade. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral-type disease, and has raised not only the concerns of animal health issue but also food safety issue. Over 58 countries in the world have experienced FMD outbreaks, and pork exports and imports among these countries are largely impacted. This dissertation focuses on how global pork trade is affected by FMD. This dissertation consists of three parts: first, this study specifically focuses on the market of U.S. pork exports. Results show that disease-affected pork importers are potential traders with the U.S., and only importing countries with a vaccination policy are more likely to increase pork imports from the U.S. rather than those importers with a slaughter policy. Second, a further investigation focuses basic hypothesis on import demand of FMD-affected importers by using a gravity model with fixed-effects to show how pork trade is affected by FMD among 186 countries. Results confirm that pork export falls when an exporting country develops FMD. Exporters with a vaccination policy have larger negative impacts than those with a slaughter policy. Further, pork importers that develop FMD and institute a slaughter policy will import more pork, but importers with a vaccination policy import the same level of pork. Third, the findings of part one and two reveal that FMD-free pork exporters face different market opportunities when pork importers have FMD outbreaks. Hence, four major FMD-free pork exporters, such as Canada, U.S., Germany, and Spain, are further investigated. Results confirm that the impacts of foreign FMD have altered pork exporters differently. Germany has gained the most exports during foreign FMD outbreaks in pork importers; the U.S. is second; Spain is third; and Canada is fourth. In sum, this dissertation contributes to the literature of gravity model when endogeneity and heteroskedasticity may coexist, when an extremely large number of zero observations are included, when single commodity for one specific exporter is analyzed, when a spatial econometric approach is compared, and when pork export market has been altered by foreign FMD outbreaks.

我國屬「海島型」經濟型態，外貿依存度極高，惜貿易區域過分集中，開拓國際市 場，分化外銷風險成為政府極力推展的重要措施，中南美地區領域廣闊，人口眾多 ，自然資源豐富，是極具開發價值的海外市場之一，但我國與之貿易數額檀少，何 以如此，殊值研究。 拉丁美洲國家傳統上屬於農業國幅，極富各類熱帶性農作，工業展較慢，除巴西、 委內瑞拉、智利等少數資源較豐國家能夠建立若干重工業外，其餘國幅尚保留在開 發中階段，尤其海地、玻利維亞、宏都拉斯等國更是民貧國窮。雖而礦產尚稱豐富 。墨西哥的白銀，委國的石油，智利的銅，巴西的鐵礦，玻國的錫銻，哥倫比亞的 翡翠，均居世界產儲量重要地位，該地區對外貿易在自由三界地位並不重要。綜觀 拉丁美洲之經貿發展情，可歸納要貼如下：一、地形隔阻，交通不便，形成發展障 礙；二、資本、人力、動力、資源不足；三、輸出賀級品為主，輸入以工業品為重 ；四、通貨膨胰嚴重；五、保護政策非常徹底；六、地近美國與美關系密切。 我國與拉丁美洲：貿易額可謂微不足道，本文擬就歷年來我國與之貿易的統計數量 及對國內各廠商的押樣問卷調查結果，配以國際經濟理論及實務觀點來推究其原因 。共分五章，第一章緒論，第二章中南美地區經濟環境及外貿概況，第三章分析我 國與中南美貿易的演變，第四章探討我國開拓中南美貿易的困難，最後一章為結論 與建議。 #2810638

此文主要目的，試圖以供給面的因素分析我貿易商品結構的變動。共分五章。 第一章、「導論），說明分析方式和資料來源，以及分析方法和資料方面所受到的 限制。 第二章、「台灣貿易結構的決定因素」，以 Heckscher-Ohlin的模型檢定台灣出口 商品結構及其決定因素。 第三章、「競爭能力與輸出結構之分析」，以工資，勞動生產力，投資等成本的因 素，分析這些因素與輸出結構的關係。 第四章、「比較利益原理與輸出結構」，此章將第三章擴大，考慮到主要市場國與 主要競爭國家生產成本的變動與我競爭能力消長，出口結構變動的關係。 第五章、「結論」，將分析結果總結，並討論進一步分析時可以採取的方向。 #2810645

本文之撰作旨在探討國際貨幣基金成立當時之背景，以及關於建立新國祭貨幣制度 主要計劃之懷特方案與凱因斯方案二者之內容，並對國際貨幣基金成立之後之營運 情形作一檢討。全文共分五章。節一章為明戊一次世界大戰後之國際貨幣局勢，以 及戰後金本任制度之恢復及其崩潰之情形，並對當時英、美、法、三國成立之「三 國貨幣協定」作一檢討。第三章說明國際貨幣新秩序之建立，首先討論國際貨幣新 秩序建立的困難，並檢討懷特、凱因斯二方案之內容，以及明布列救森林會議之決 定與國際貨幣基金之成立。第四章說明國際貨幣基金之任務與組織，並探討國際貨 幣基金成立以迄特別提款權產生期間維持困難之情形。第五章結論，業於本文之入 容作一概括之陳述，並就著者作之心得作一總結。 #2810650

我國最近二十來，貿易的發展自售口者代以至出口擴張階段，貿易型態之轉變至為 明顯，出口的成長更是格外迅速，為世界所矚目。基於比，本文的主要目的，即在 於利用時間序列的分析，探討我國及與我國競爭相當激列的幾個東南亞國家輸出商 品組合型態變動的情形，以了解我國產品在國際市場上的競爭能力和未來發展的展 望。本文大約三萬多字，全部分為五章。第一衰：緒論、簡介研究目的、動議及在 診料搜集上所受到的種種限制。第二章：模型的設定，主要在介紹輸出代替彈性的 各種計算方法及此模型所受到各前假定的限制。第三章：實證分析，以各國的統計 資料代入上述公式中求得國別及商品別的輸出代替彈性。第四章：側定結果與解釋 ，以輸出佔有率變動之圖形和輸出需要變化與商品別適應力之圖形，來說明我國產 品在國際市場上競爭能力的變動情況。第五章：結論，根據實證分析結果提出一些 建議，作為日後的參考。 #2810642

本論文分五章，約三萬五千字。 第一章 緒論 第二章 自由貿易之利益及其前提 第一節 自由貿易之利益：以社會無異曲線分別討論個別國家由自由貿易中所得的交 換利益與專業化生產利益，並簡單闡明全世界產出增加之利。 第二節 自由貿易之前提：上述利益必須為完全競爭市場、充分就業方能實現，而以 社會無異曲線分析貿易利益，必須假定社會每一個人的利益相一致。在本節中並討論 這些假定前提在現實社會不一定存在的原因，及所可能肇致之後果，與使社會無異曲 線之應用能夠合理化之假定。 第三章 保護貿易之檢討 第一節 保護貿易之原因：基於自由貿易之利益實現之前提不一定存在，利益不一定 實現，因而各個國家可能因為要促進就業，調整國際收支之失衡或要改善貿易條件， 獲取更多的貿易利益，或因要保護自由貿易之受害者等理由而採保護措施。 第二節 保護貿易的各種措施 第三節 保護貿易的代價 第四章 近年來保護貿易的演進與促進自由貿易之途徑 第一節 近年來的保護趨勢 第二節 略述過去的努力成果 第三節 將來的努力方向：由於撤除貿易障礙，今後一方面國際間協調合作，相互讓 步，與一致的經濟政策積極的消除原有障礙。另方面，國內對工人做失業援助，並對 產業做調整救濟，化解自由貿易後對受害者的威脅，消極的消除貿易自由化之抵抗壓 力。 第五章 結論

全文共六章，約三萬字。 第一章 導論 第一節 研究動機：在標準假設下，自由貿易是一國最佳政策，但實際社會狀況並不 符合假設，為使此貿易利益理論較切合實際現象，乃試圖拆除其中某一假設，而探討 自由貿易是否仍為最佳政策。 第二節 福利比較方法：綜合社會無異曲線，顯示性偏好理論，效用可能曲線等方法 比較之。 第三節 本文之結構。 第二章 標準假設與貿易利益 第一節 標準貿易模型：說明標準假設下自由貿易之利益。 第二節 不同貿易福利之比較：於標準假設下，比較自由貿易、限制貿易、自給自足 之福利。 第三章 市場不完全競爭與貿易利益 第一節 要素市場不完全競爭：說明何情況下自由貿易利益仍優於自給自足，何情況 則否，並進一步分析使福利最大之政策為何。 第二節 商品市場不完全競爭：內容和第一節大致同。 第三節 國際市場不完全競爭：內容和第一節大致同。 第四章 經濟成長與貿易利益 第一節 無市場扭曲現象：當市場無扭曲現象時，自由貿易之利益為何。 第二節 有市場扭曲現象：當市場有扭曲現象時，自由貿易之利益為何。 第五章 對外投資與貿易利益 加入對外投資之變數後，自由貿易利益為何。 第六章 結論