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Univ., Diss--Köln, 2001.

Univ., Diss.--Jena, 2002.

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Univ., Diss.--Hannover, 2002.

Zugl.: Augsburg, Universiẗat, Diss., 2008.

Originally presented as author's Thesis (doctoral)--Hamburg, Universiẗat, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references (p. [365]-406) and index.

Credit scoring is important and rapidly developing discipline. The aim of this thesis is to describe basic methods used for building and interpretation of the credit scoring models with an example of application of these methods for designing such models using statistical software R. This thesis is organized into five chapters. In chapter one, the term of credit scoring is explained with main examples of its application and motivation for studying this topic. In the next chapters, three in financial practice most often used methods for building credit scoring models are introduced. In chapter two, the most developed one, logistic regression is discussed. The main emphasis is put on the logistic regression model, which is characterized from a mathematical point of view and also various ways to assess the quality of the model are presented. The other two methods presented in this thesis are decision trees and Random forests, these methods are covered by chapters three and four. An important part of this thesis is a detailed application of the described models to a specific data set Default using the R program. The final fifth chapter is a practical demonstration of building credit scoring models, their diagnostics and subsequent evaluation of their applicability in practice using R. The appendices include used R code and also functions developed for testing of the final model and code used through the thesis. The key aspect of the work is to provide enough theoretical knowledge and practical skills for a reader to fully understand the mentioned models and to be able to apply them in practice.

This thesis studies the debts and claims of court servants in Stockholm from 1688 to 1708 as a case study of early credit markets, exploring the transition from pre-modern informal systems based on personal trust and peer-to-peer lending to modern institutional banking. The thesis shows that the court servants were prominent moneylenders with relatively little debt and argues that these characteristics were by influenced their greater access to cash through their wages from the court. Furthermore, institutional banking and formal credit instruments are shown to have been frequently used by court servants at the turn of the 18th century, bringing nuance the idea of linear progress from traditional systems of credit to modern banking.

Our study highlights the potential challenges that occur within the banks credit assessment of property companies’ repayment ability and what improvements can be implemented to reduce the weaknesses of the credit process. The study aims to provide a greater understanding of how the credit assessment process works within a bank and to pay attention to where potential weaknesses in the system are located. The study is based on theoretical and empirical data. The theoretical part of the study is based upon evidence from literary and scientifical sources, while the empirical data consists of interviews from professional experts and of a researcher within the banking and property sector. The credit culture in the banking system has changed in recent decades as a result of previous real estate and financial crises. Banks have become more restrictive with their credit lending and they have begun to move towards a more classical view of banking. When banks perform a credit assessment they look at both the evaluation flow and the cash flow and it is the cash flow that displays the companies’ repayment ability. Banks uses tools such as stencils and models to assess companies’ cash flow and they do it to try and predict how the companies future capital will look like and how it will develop. It is within the banks prediction of the future of the companies cash flow that you can find the most uncertainties. This is especially true when it comes to credit lending to property companies and the reason is the major risk that banks take within this type of credit granting. The risks are linked to the large loan amount that property companies need to make their business work and also to the long time period that is expected when it comes to large credit granting from banks. There are also some concerns about the assessment of future corporate profits because it is related to a lot of different factors such as the time period of the existing leases within a residential property, the level of the current rent and fear of future vacancies. As a bank, there is often a security in the property when granting loans to property companies and problems can occur when the actual property is of a unique type of real estate. It could lead to difficulties for the bank when they try to estimate the value of the property or when banks need to find a possible buyer. There are also some problems for the banks when it comes to the geographical location of the property because of the connection that prices have to the location of the property. The difficulties when it comes to the assessment of the property companies’ cash flow are many but the banks have an optimistic view on the credit assessment system as it is today. / Vår studie undersöker eventuella utmaningar som förekommer vid bankers kreditbedömning av fastighetsföretags återbetalningsförmåga samt vilka förbättringar som kan genomföras för att reducera dessa problem inom bedömningsprocessen. Uppsatsen syftar till att ge en ökad förståelse för hur kreditbedömningsprocessen inom bankväsendet går till samt uppmärksamma vart de potentiella svagheterna i systemet ligger. Studien är uppbyggd på teoretisk och empirisk data. Den teoretiska delen av arbetet bygger på fakta från litterära och vetenskapliga källor medan den empiriska datan utgörs av intervjuer från yrkesverksamma experter och forskare inom bank och fastighetssektorn. Kreditkulturen inom bankväsendet har förändrats de senaste decennierna till följd av tidigare fastighets- och finanskriser. Bankerna har blivit mer restriktiva med sin kreditgivning och de har börjat gå mot en allt mer klassisk syn på bankverksamhet. Då banker gör en kreditbedömning ser de dels till värderingsflödet men även till kassaflödet och det är kassaflödet som i sin tur visar företagens återbetalningsförmåga. För att bedöma kassaflödet använder sig banker av schabloner och modeller. Bankerna tittar på företagens kassaflöden för att bedöma hur bolagens framtida kapital kommer att se ut och utvecklas. Det är i detta framtidsmoment som man kan finna en del osäkra bedömningsfaktorer. Vid kreditutlåning till fastighetsföretag är bankerna överens om att den största risken ligger i de stora lånebeloppen som fastighetsbolag behöver för att få sin verksamhet att fungera samt i de långa tidsförlopp som dessa lån ligger på. Det kan vara svårt för banker att göra bedömningar av företagens framtida intäkter då de är beroende av ett flertal svårberäkneliga faktorer, däribland hyreskontrakten, hyresnivån och rädslan för framtida vakanser. Som bank har man oftast en säkerhet i själva fastigheten då man beviljar krediter till fastighetsbolag och problemet för bankerna kan uppstå då fastigheten i fråga är av en unik fastighetstyp. Det kan leda till att det blir svårt att uppskatta fastighetens värde och eventuellt hitta en köpare vid behov av försäljning. Ytterligare problem finns även kring den geografiska placeringen av fastigheten då efterfrågan delvis beror på fastighetens läge. Utmaningarna är många men bankerna har en optimistisk syn på kreditsystemet så som det ser ut idag.