<p>The thesis primarily tracks the history of historical responsibility in negotiations to and under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The concept aims at attributing individual country burdens in mitigating climate change based on the relative levels of past emissions. A hermeneutic approach and discursive theory has been applied to the empirical material consisting of documents form UNFCCC’s main bodies. Even though the concept was part of the discursive struggle over the content of the UNFCCC, it has been more central in the struggle to operationalise the Convention’s principles on equity. Historical responsibility has been most elaborated in a proposal by Brazil to the 1997 pre-Kyoto negotiations. This proposal combined a biophysical approach (preferred by the North) with that of a political economic approach (preferred by the South). However, the proposal was soon pushed of the central agenda and discussions on the topic turned technical and centred on scientific uncertainties. The biophysical framing excluded equity. At the same time as the proposal was marginalised within UNFCCC as a whole, it was central in discussions on comprehensive approaches to historical responsibility. Any that wanted to discuss comprehensive approaches were referred to this forum wherein talks on equity were excluded from the rules of discussion. This echoes a world system of a periphery, the global South, dependent upon core countries, the global North. The last mentioned have the capacity to set the agenda. The argument for marginalising the Brazilian proposal has been compared to the accepted Kyoto protocol with the result that the official arguments for marginalisation do not hold. The thesis also investigates historical responsibility’s problem solving potential as a concept that could create much needed dialogue across the North/South divide.</p> / <p>Uppsatsen söker främst följa konceptet ”historisk skuld” i klimatförhandlingarna som ledde till, och som senare fördes under, FNs ramkonvention om klimatförändringar (FCCC). Historisk skuld tillskriver länder eller regioner ett ansvar för klimatförändringar som baseras på dess historiska utsläppsnivåer av växthusgaser. Ansvarsberäkningarna ligger sedan till grund för bördefördelning. Empirin, beståendes av dokument från FCCCs organ, har analyserats genom hermeneutik och diskursteori. Historisk skuld fanns med i den diskursiva kampen över FCCC men blev centralt först i kampen över hur FCCCs rättviseprinciper skulle operationaliseras. Som mest genomarbetat har konceptet varit i det så kallade brasilianska förslaget vilket lades fram inför Kyotoförhandlingarna. Förslaget kombinerade en naturvetenskaplig gestaltning, som föredras av länder i nord, med en politisk ekonomisk dito, vilken föredras av syd. Det exkluderades emellertid fort från den beslutsfattande agendan och hänvisades till rådgivande organ där frågan teknifierades med fokus på vetenskapliga osäkerheter. Den naturvetenskapliga gestaltningen exkluderade samtal om rättvisa. Samtidigt som förslaget marginaliserades inom FCCC som helhet så blev det centralt i detaljerade diskussioner om historisk skuld. Om någon ville diskutera operationaliserade varianter av historisk skuld inom FN så hänvisade de till detta forum, ett forum där samtal om rättvisa exkluderats genom de tysta regler som styr diskussionen. Detta speglar ett världssystem där en periferi, det global syd, är beroende av centrala länder, det globala nord. De sistnämnda har kapaciteten att styra dagordningen. Argumenten bakom marginaliseringen av det brasilianska förslaget har sedan jämförts med det accepterade Kyotoprotokollet. Det visar sig då att de officiella argumenten för marginalisering inte håller. Uppsatsen undersöker också konceptets potential till att initiera välbehövlig dialog mellan nord och syd.</p>

<p>Aviation industry has been developing throughout the last decades and is today an important part of the global economy. This constant growth makes it important to constrain the climate impacts derived from it. The IPCC report (1999), Aviation and the global atmosphere, lists four measures to reduce emissions and environmental impacts of aviation; Aircraft and engine technology options, fuel options, operational options and regulatory and economic options. The study aims to discuss the efficiency and implementation level of the measures. The theoretical frame for the research is based on literature studies whereas the empirical material is based on qualitative interviews of representatives of three key sectors; the authority, the service provider and the aircraft operator.</p><p>While analysing the theoretical and the empirical results, a certain emphasis on the regulatory and economical measures has been noticed. Moreover, following conclusions have been drawn;</p><p>(1) An emission trading with carbon dioxide would be an incentive to improve aircraft technology and flying procedures; (2) The best way of having international aviation included in the European emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) would be through an initial grandfathering distribution (costless distribution of permits according to historical emission and volume of fuel use) done according to a best-practise philosophy; (3) A robust instrument to measure emissions behaviour at different levels of the atmosphere is still missing. (4) The exclusion of the international aviation from the Kyoto Protocol negotiations makes it harder to include it in the existing EU ETS. Finally, all measures are needed and should be put into practise, but a trading with emissions would be the one to start the improving cycle leading to more sustainable results regarding time, environment and economy.</p>

In diesem Beitrag wird der Hintergrund der internationalen Klimaverhandlungen erläutert und die Ergebnisse des Kopenhagen-Akkords vorgestellt. Angesichts des Scheiterns der Kopenhagener Konferenz muss die zeitnahe Schließung eines rechtlich bindenden, globalen Klimaabkommens als unwahrscheinlich gelten. Die Klimapolitik wird zukünftig verstärkt auf nationalstaatlicher und transnationaler Ebene erfolgen.

Wälder haben im Bezug zum Klimawandel mehrere Rollen: Sie sind Kohlenstoffspeicher, -senken, sowie Lieferanten von Holz als Rohstoff für die Kohlenstoffspeicher in Produkten und für Substitution fossiler Energieträger. Unter Klimaschutzgesichtspunkten ist es wünschenswert, die Kohlenstoffbindung im Gesamtsystem aus Senken, Speichern und Substitution zu maximieren und zu entscheiden, welche Maßnahme an welchem Ort und unter welchen Rahmenbedingungen den größten positiven Effekt auf die CO2-Bilanz hat. Um die Speicherung in den verschiedenen Kompartimenten erfassen zu können müssen geeignete Inventurverfahren zur Verfügung stehen. Die IPCC – GPG benennen die Speicher und geben zum Teil Anforderungen an die zu erreichende Inventurgenauigkeit. Aus der klassischen Forsteinrichtung stehen genügend Methoden zur Verfügung, um das oberirdische Volumen sehr genau zu erheben. Um den Anforderungen an ein umfassendes Kohlenstoffmonitoring genügen zu können, müssen diese Verfahren in den Bereichen Erfassung von Störungsfolgen, Totholzdynamik, Boden und der Berechnung von Gesamt-Kohlenstoffvorräten aus dem Holzvolumen ergänzt werden. Zusätzlich bietet sich an, Bewirtschaftungsmaßnahmen entsprechend zu erfassen, um ihre Auswirkung auf die Kohlenstoffdynamik ebenfalls feststellen zu können. Dies ist für die Berichterstattung zwischen Inventuren sowie für die Herausrechnung von nicht-menschenverursachter erhöhter Kohlenstoffspeicherung („factoring out“ im Sinne des KP) wünschenswert. Wenn Bewirtschaftungsmaßnahmen unterschieden werden können und ihre Auswirkungen auf C-Vorräte bestimmbar sind, ist eine Verifizierung erhöhter Speicherung auch z. B. für Projekte nach Art. 3.4 des KP durchführbar. Diese Arbeiten stecken jedoch noch in der Anfangsphase. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde die erste verfügbare qualitative Übersicht zu dieser Thematik erstellt. Die Optimierung der Wald-Holz-Option wird durch die im Kyoto-Protokoll (und den zugehörigen Folgeabkommen) vereinbarten Regelungen erschwert, da einerseits zwischen Wald und Produkten eine Trennung besteht und andererseits die Maßnahmenverantwortlichem im Wald nicht direkt durch das KP angesprochen werden. Eingeschlagenes Holz wird im Wald als Emission betrachtet und dem entsprechenden Sektor zugerechnet, was jedoch keine Auswirkungen auf den Forstbetrieb hat. Dieser profitiert im Gegenteil derzeit von der durch die – auch von KP Regelungen beeinflussten – Holzpreise und erhöht die Nutzungen, was zu Vorratsabsenkungen im Wald führt. Ob diese Absenkungen durch die Substitutionseffekte des geernteten Holzes kompensiert werden ist derzeit noch nicht geklärt. Um die Trennung zwischen Wald und Produktpool aufzuweichen bietet es sich an, die Waldbesitzer am Emissionsrechtehandel teilhaben zu lassen, damit nicht nur die Ernte sondern auch der Ernteverzicht finanziell bewertbar sind. Sozio-ökonomische Szenarien zur künftigen Entwicklung der Landwirtschaft zeigen große Flächenpotentiale, die für die Nahrungs- und Futtermittelproduktion nicht mehr benötigt werden oder nicht mehr rentabel sein werden. Eine mögliche Nutzung in Zukunft sind Energieholzplantagen. Informationen zu möglichen Erträgen sind zur Zeit noch unzureichend und Analysen zur Nachhaltigkeit dieser Erträge unter Klimawandel sind nicht vorhanden. In dieser Arbeit wurde mit dem ökophysiologischen Waldwachstumsmodell 4C an Beispielsstandorten in Brandenburg das Wachstum von Energieholzplantagen unter derzeitigem Klima und unter verschiedenen regionalisierten Klimawandelszenarien bis 2055 simuliert. Ertragspotentiale liegen derzeit auf der Mehrzahl der Standorte im positiven Bereich, auf einigen Standorten ist jedoch nur begrenzt mit positiven Deckungsbeiträgen zu rechnen. Bis 2055 ist in allen Szenarien mit einem leichten Rückgang der Erträge und einer deutlicheren Verringerung der Grundwasserneubildung unter Energieholzplantagen zu rechnen. Die Unterschiede zwischen Standorten sind jedoch derzeit und unter zukünftig möglichem Klima stärker als klimabedingte Änderungen. Bei der großflächigen Anlage von Energieholzplantagen können negative Auswirkungen auf die Biodiversität und andere Naturschutzbelange eintreten. Eine diese Effekte abmildernde Flächengestaltung, die trotzdem Erträge auf dem Niveau heutiger Vollerwerbslandwirtschaft erreicht, ist möglich. Insgesamt lässt sich für die Optimierung der Wald-Holz-Option feststellen, dass eine Nicht-Nutzung bestehender Waldflächen unter Klimaschutzgesichtspunkten negativ ist. Der Substitutionseffekt geernteten Holzes beträgt zusätzliche ca. 70 Prozent Kohlenstoff, die in dieser Form in nicht bewirtschafteten mitteleuropäischen Wäldern nicht zusätzlich gespeichert werden. Es ist davon auszugehen, dass sich durch die Berücksichtigung von Substitutionseffekten andere – wahrscheinlich kürzere – als die heute üblichen Produktionszeiten ergeben. Auf bisher waldfreien Flächen ist die Anlage von Energieholzplantagen positiver zu werten als eine normale Aufforstung. / Forests are important for climate protection: They sequester and store carbon, and provide timber for wood products and fossil fuel substitution. These functions interact in a complex way. From a climate protection point of view it is desirable to optimize these interactions, i.e. to maximize the amount of carbon stored in the whole system (called „forest-timber-option“) and to analyse what impact a management decision at the local level has with regard to the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. Inventory methods to estimate the total amount of carbon in a forest are needed. Classical forest inventories assess above-ground tree volume. To estimate total car-bon in accordance with the requirements of the Kyoto-Protocol, these inventories need to be expanded with regard to the assessment of disturbances, dead wood de-composition, soil carbon, and the estimation of carbon from volume. Methods in-vented here can also be used to assess local-level management activities, or to “fac-tor out” non-human-induced changes in carbon pools. The optimization of the „forest-timber-option“ is restricted due to regulations of the Kyoto-Protocol, because forest-related measures are accounted for under other sec-tors than wood and timber use. Harvested timber is estimated as an “emission” from the forest, and forest owners have no benefit from the use of wood for industrial pur-poses. Here, an inclusion of forestry in emission trading schemes can be advanta-geous. Alternative ways to produce wood are short-rotation coppice plantations on agricul-tural soils. Information about growth and yield potentials are scarce for the regions where land availability is high. Aspen (P. tremula, P. tremuloides) was parameterized in an eco-physiological forest growth model (“4C”) to assess these potentials on sites in Eastern Germany under current and under changing climatic conditions. The re-sults indicate that growth potentials are more sensitive to soil quality than to climatic conditions. Potential yields allow for incomes comparable to standard agriculture, but biodiversity and groundwater recharge may be negatively affected by large-scale plantations. An optimization of the „forest-timber-option“ requests the use of timber from forests. Harvested timber substitutes additional 70 % of carbon from fossil fuels. Forests un-der total protection do store more carbon than managed forest, but not equivalent to the substitution effects. Total protection of forests is thus no viable means for climate protection under Central European conditions.

The thesis primarily tracks the history of historical responsibility in negotiations to and under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The concept aims at attributing individual country burdens in mitigating climate change based on the relative levels of past emissions. A hermeneutic approach and discursive theory has been applied to the empirical material consisting of documents form UNFCCC’s main bodies. Even though the concept was part of the discursive struggle over the content of the UNFCCC, it has been more central in the struggle to operationalise the Convention’s principles on equity. Historical responsibility has been most elaborated in a proposal by Brazil to the 1997 pre-Kyoto negotiations. This proposal combined a biophysical approach (preferred by the North) with that of a political economic approach (preferred by the South). However, the proposal was soon pushed of the central agenda and discussions on the topic turned technical and centred on scientific uncertainties. The biophysical framing excluded equity. At the same time as the proposal was marginalised within UNFCCC as a whole, it was central in discussions on comprehensive approaches to historical responsibility. Any that wanted to discuss comprehensive approaches were referred to this forum wherein talks on equity were excluded from the rules of discussion. This echoes a world system of a periphery, the global South, dependent upon core countries, the global North. The last mentioned have the capacity to set the agenda. The argument for marginalising the Brazilian proposal has been compared to the accepted Kyoto protocol with the result that the official arguments for marginalisation do not hold. The thesis also investigates historical responsibility’s problem solving potential as a concept that could create much needed dialogue across the North/South divide. / Uppsatsen söker främst följa konceptet ”historisk skuld” i klimatförhandlingarna som ledde till, och som senare fördes under, FNs ramkonvention om klimatförändringar (FCCC). Historisk skuld tillskriver länder eller regioner ett ansvar för klimatförändringar som baseras på dess historiska utsläppsnivåer av växthusgaser. Ansvarsberäkningarna ligger sedan till grund för bördefördelning. Empirin, beståendes av dokument från FCCCs organ, har analyserats genom hermeneutik och diskursteori. Historisk skuld fanns med i den diskursiva kampen över FCCC men blev centralt först i kampen över hur FCCCs rättviseprinciper skulle operationaliseras. Som mest genomarbetat har konceptet varit i det så kallade brasilianska förslaget vilket lades fram inför Kyotoförhandlingarna. Förslaget kombinerade en naturvetenskaplig gestaltning, som föredras av länder i nord, med en politisk ekonomisk dito, vilken föredras av syd. Det exkluderades emellertid fort från den beslutsfattande agendan och hänvisades till rådgivande organ där frågan teknifierades med fokus på vetenskapliga osäkerheter. Den naturvetenskapliga gestaltningen exkluderade samtal om rättvisa. Samtidigt som förslaget marginaliserades inom FCCC som helhet så blev det centralt i detaljerade diskussioner om historisk skuld. Om någon ville diskutera operationaliserade varianter av historisk skuld inom FN så hänvisade de till detta forum, ett forum där samtal om rättvisa exkluderats genom de tysta regler som styr diskussionen. Detta speglar ett världssystem där en periferi, det global syd, är beroende av centrala länder, det globala nord. De sistnämnda har kapaciteten att styra dagordningen. Argumenten bakom marginaliseringen av det brasilianska förslaget har sedan jämförts med det accepterade Kyotoprotokollet. Det visar sig då att de officiella argumenten för marginalisering inte håller. Uppsatsen undersöker också konceptets potential till att initiera välbehövlig dialog mellan nord och syd.

The Precautionary Principle (PP) as formulated in the context of climate change requires countries to take measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse impacts despite a lack of full scientific certainty as to such causes. The Differentiated Responsibility Principle (the DR Principle) recognizes a common responsibility of all countries to prevent climate change and calls on developed states to assume a leadership role in the global effort to prevent climate change. The DR Principle requires some developed countries to place a restriction on their GHG emissions. Unfortunately this means that at least in the short term, developing countries are not subject to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets, thereby exacerbating the climate change problem. <p>Implementing the DR Principle in this manner conflicts with the PP. To avoid this conflict, the DR Principle should be formulated in a manner which demands some restriction on GHG emission, by developing countries. Efforts to prevent human induced climate change should be made by all countries regardless of their individual culpability for climate change if the PP is to have effect.

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol has been hailed as the grand compromise of the North-South divide over climate change mitigation for its ability to reconcile the economic demands of the North with the developmental needs of the South. Having been primarily analyzed from isolated economic, environmental, or developmental perspectives, the CDMs efficacy in bridging the North-South divide remains poorly understood. This research evaluates the CDM against three qualitative criteria focused on issues affecting Southern nations participation in international agreements. An examination of distributive and procedural issues characterizing the CDM shows that significant trade-offs exist between Northern and Southern interests under the CDM and suggests that the interests of the South are often sacrificed. On this basis, conclusions are drawn which point to the need for increased attention to and accommodation of Southern interests in the CDM specifically, and global climate change efforts more broadly.

The Kyoto Protocol is one of the most important international climate change treaties aimed at fighting global warming. On January 1st 2005, the protocol was enforced with its first commitment period 2008-2012. However, the effectiveness of reducing CO2 emission has long been debated. The purpose of this thesis is to empirically as-sess the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on carbon dioxide reduction across countries, whether the protocol led significant difference after entering force in 2005. The data used in this thesis cover 37 Annex B countries and 148 non-annex B countries from 1990 to 2007. The models are constructed on the basis of the various contributing fac-tors to CO2 emissions and the Environmental Kuznets Curve model. The main find-ing is contrary against the result expected. The insignificant dummy variable cannot indicate that there is a “structural break” of CO2 emissions reduction after the Kyoto Protocol was implemented. The conclusion is that political agreements such as Kyoto Protocol cannot show critical effects on reducing carbon dioxide. The underlying main driving factors of CO2 emission are energy use, electricity from coal source, fossil fuel burning, in other words, industrialization. And the technology develop-ments cannot keep in pace with finding a new energy source and effectively control-ling CO2 emissions in the short run.

The European Union has initiated a scheme for trading with CO2 emission allowances as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emission levels. Since January 2005 companies from certain energy demanding sectors, responsible for approximately 50 % of the total CO2 emissions in the EU, are participating in this scheme, the so called EU Emission Trading Scheme. A trading scheme covering all sectors, i.e. all emissions in the EU would lead to the most cost efficient solution to reduce emissions by a certain amount. This means that the EU Emission Trading Scheme should be enlarged to cover also the transport sector, which is not participating today, but responsible for about 21 % of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the EU. There are three ways to include the transport sector in the EU Emission Trading Scheme, i.e. to administrate the handling and trading of emission allowances in the transport sector. The first is a so called downstream approach, meaning that the actual emitter of the GHG, in this case a private person driving a car or a haulage contractor using trucks to transport goods, would be responsible for acquiring and trading emission allowances in accordance to the amount of greenhouse gases that he emits. The second way is a so called upstream approach, meaning that the owner of fuel depots would be responsible for acquiring and trading emission allowances corresponding to the amount of fossil fuel that he is selling, which is proportional to the amount of greenhouse gases that is emitted when using the fuel. The third solution is to lay the responsibility for acquiring and trading emission allowances on the companies that are ordering the transportation service, indirectly causing greenhouse gas emissions when their goods are being transported. All three solutions have their advantages and disadvantages, but the benefits of using the upstream approach are the greatest. By allocating the responsibility for keeping and trading emission allowances at the fuel depots, an extensive part of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use, not only in the transport sector, could be covered by the EU Emission Trading Scheme to the lowest administrational cost possible.

The Precautionary Principle (PP) as formulated in the context of climate change requires countries to take measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse impacts despite a lack of full scientific certainty as to such causes. The Differentiated Responsibility Principle (the DR Principle) recognizes a common responsibility of all countries to prevent climate change and calls on developed states to assume a leadership role in the global effort to prevent climate change. The DR Principle requires some developed countries to place a restriction on their GHG emissions. Unfortunately this means that at least in the short term, developing countries are not subject to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets, thereby exacerbating the climate change problem. <p>Implementing the DR Principle in this manner conflicts with the PP. To avoid this conflict, the DR Principle should be formulated in a manner which demands some restriction on GHG emission, by developing countries. Efforts to prevent human induced climate change should be made by all countries regardless of their individual culpability for climate change if the PP is to have effect.