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Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are not only becoming more common globally, but they are also increasing in size and value in Sweden. The pace of this trend has not even slowed down due to the eruption of the global pandemic, there is rather a tendency showing the opposite. In solitude may this have its reasonable causes but when delving deeper into the matter may the effects of a M&A be alarming, especially for the individual. Scholars are often stressing their concerns that M&As often ends in failure or being devastating in terms of their performance. While some have argued that cultural aspects play a crucial part for the realization of a deal- transaction, have the findings either been inconclusive or inconsistent.  This thesis is therefore exploring the notion of culture and the role it plays in the M&A-process, particularly the pre-deal phase in order to shed light on the matter. By doing so have a theoretical framework been developed that connects the phases of the M&A-process with social identity theory and the modes of acculturation which the seller and buyer may desire prior to entering a deal. Thus, by investigating the actions taken by both an acquirer, “Alfa”, and a targeted firm, “Bravo”, from an acquisition in 2021, have a case study been developed for a later thematic analysis. While the former is a publicly listed company in the central regions of Sweden, is the latter a privately held company in the northern parts. Both companies operate within the construction industry which may limit the transferability to other settings. However, the methodological and qualitative design choices of this study make it possible to favor interpretations and inductive reasoning of the semi-structured interviews through which the data has been collected.  It has been found that there is no one best way for companies who are entering a M&A-deal to make sure that they will be culturally congruent with one another and that various acculturation modes might be simultaneously occurring. From the case has the modes of integration and separation been found to be present which have caused acculturation stress to transpire during the post-deal phase. Having a decentralized structure in tandem with clear communication and sharing information to those individuals being affected by the M&A has been found to be vital factors for mitigating acculturation stress, making parties more congruent, and creating favorable conditions in which implementation can be successful.

The utilization of mergers and acquisitions has over the years become a central part of expanding and growing an organization. To acquire or merge with another firm is often described as a way to facilitate better and faster organizational development, in ways that organic growth cannot. In conjunction with the increase in popularity of mergers and acquisitions, the academic attention towards this area has also grown subsequently. According to scholars, due diligence can be used as a tool to ensure that the acquiring firm and the target firm are a good match, as well as ensuring that any seller statements are consistent with reality. The academic attention towards due diligence is, however, described as surprisingly limited. Previous researchers are calling for an increased and deeper understanding of due diligence in general. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to further develop theoretical knowledge and expand the understanding of due diligence. More exactly, we have targeted Swedish small and medium-sized firms that have acquired another firm recently by asking the following research questions; What are the drivers and challenges of pre-acquisition due diligence for Swedish SMEs? and; How is the pre-acquisition due diligence process managed by Swedish SMEs? and; How are the results of the pre-acquisition due diligence applied? Semi-structured interviews with CEOs, founders, managers, and heads of M&As from seven Swedish SMEs were conducted, based on both scholarly suggested evaluation procedures and a literature review within the field of due diligence. All interviews were conducted and recorded through an online tool which facilitated the process of transcribing, analyzing, and producing the empirical findings. By using qualitative thematic analysis the respondents’ answers, thoughts, and insights were accordingly categorized into one of four main themes and subsequent sub-themes. The findings showed that due diligence brings overall value and that it is a necessity in the process of acquiring, even though it is a rather expensive and time-consuming process that can interrupt the everyday agenda at the acquiring firm. Furthermore, the findings also showed that the management of the due diligence process and the utilization of the results differed considerably between the investigated firms. Lastly, the findings indicate a need for future technological development in the field of due diligence, to achieve a more cost- and time-effective process.

Yes / This paper examines whether and how bidders' conservative tone in 10-K filings influences the subsequent mergers and acquisitions (M&A) investment decisions of these US firms from 1996 to 2013. Based on 39,260 firm-year observations, we find, consistent with behavioural consistency theory, that conservative bidders are less likely to engage in M&A deals. Further, those that decide to engage in M&As are likely to acquire public targets and within-industry firms. These bidders are inclined to employ more stock acquisitions than cash acquisitions. Our results also indicate that conservative bidders experience abnormally poor stock returns around the announcements of M&A investments. This provides new insights on the mechanism through which bidders' sentiments influence shareholders' wealth. Overall, these findings highlight the implications of the textual sentiment of corporate disclosure for the forecasting of corporate investment and financing decisions. Our results have practical implications, since they shed light on the value relevance of the information content of major Securities Exchange Commission (SEC)-mandated 10-K filings.

如何成長，是企業尋求永續經營所關心的永恆主題；如何國際化則是企業在經濟全球化時代面臨的挑戰。國際購併作為企業的擴張模式，同時兼具了企業追求成長和國際化佈局的內涵和效果，是歐美企業經常使用的成長策略和國際市場擴張策略。尤其在廿世紀的九○年代，全球化的風潮和跨國企業（MNCs）的全球化佈局，助長了跨國購併的盛行。 中國大陸在地理上緊鄰台灣，自1978年改革開放後，經濟呈現高度成長，除了是開發中國家首位國際對外直接投資（FDI）的目的地之外，更是全球最大的新興市場和製造工廠。惟與國際購併作為對外直接投資的主要模式比較起來，外資透過購併來經略中國市場並不普遍，在成交金額上僅佔5.5%，這主要是因為中國相關的購併法律環境還不健全、市場機制不成熟、資本市場也未全面開放所導致。因此，跨國購併目前並不是進入中國投資的主流模式。近年來，中國政府加強改善購併相關環境的工作，一方面使得購併活動蓬勃發展，另方面也讓外資得以在中國以購併方式經略中國。 本論文「以成長策略為經，以國際市場進入模式為緯」探討台資企業在中國大陸的購併策略，研究的出發點主要是關懷台商如何以及能否以購併策略來經略中國市場，並探究是否成功。由於過去與此相關的研究相當稀少，本研究可以定位為初探性研究，研究主要採取個案研究法，並在對三個個案研究公司從事購併的高階主管進行深度訪談，以及次級資料蒐集的輔助下，實證研究有幾項結論發現，分述如下： 一、台商以購併方式在中國大陸投資的主要考量是：如何以時間爭取市場空間。簡言之，面對大陸新興市場的高速成長，時間價值取得了投資策略思考的主導地位，形成了廠商以併購方式在中國投資的策略。當廠商面對快速成長的新興市場，購併是快速進入市場的最佳相配適策略。尤其當「時間對市場」變得相當重要的時候，購併是進入一個新市場最迅速的投資方式，此時併購相對於其他投資方式有其獨具的優勢。 在時間上，併購既有廠房確實比新建投資來得快速，進一步拿購併與投入新建廠房的兩三年內相比，在主併公司良好的整合策略配合下，開出新產能和建立新市場，其績效也比自建新廠來得好。以購併作為成長策略，主併公司借助了外部的力量而得以跳躍成長，省卻了以自己內部實力從事創新和開發所需的時間，其成長曲線不同於內部成長策略的S曲線。 二、海外購併投資同時是台資企業國際化的成長策略和海外市場的進入模式。國際併購作為台商的海外市場進入策略，通常兼具有策略性購併的特質，且都是以追求快速成長為目標。併購策略具有台資企業國際化歷程的中繼或過度性質特徵。易言之，在進入策略上，台商和許多其他國家國際企業一樣，採取了從低涉入到高涉入、資源投入從低到高、控制從低到高的模式，而購併模式在國際化過程中，往往是一個過度性質的中繼站，接著再以自建新廠的方式繼續投資，而且多是獨資的方式為之，此乃內部成長策略和外部成長策略兼採的市場進入方式；不過，亦有持續地單以併購與合資等外部成長方式作為投資的模式，來進行國際化的佈局。 購併投資若駕馭得當，可以達成企業設定的成長策略目標，但應考慮經營環境的內外變化，以規避快速成長所帶來的風險。企業外部環境的風險和內部經營能力對購併的影響，當主併公司的企業經營能力不能駕馭經營環境面臨的高度風險挑戰，將把獲來的資產化成為泡沫，一切成為烏有；若是企業能力優良，並且擁有低風險的經營環境，則購併後的主併公司將呈現蛙跳成長，成長快速。若是主併公司的經營能力和經營環境風險有相適應的發展，則呈現穩定的成長狀態，但公司宜加強經營能力，以防風險係數提高，造成公司難以應付的危機出現。 三、在購併整合和是否達成購併目標上發現：（一）購併後的整合端視主併公司與被併公司在資源互賴需求和組織獨立需求高低而決定。這點印證了Haspealagh and Jemison提出的資源整合矩陣觀點。（二）購併後若發生股權變動的情況，亦可能導致整合文化的變化，這說明了購併後整合模式具有動態變化的特性。（三）如果購併方是具有經營優勢的企業，被併者是家虧損企業，則通常購併後整合的主導模式是順向整合的吸納式。（四）整合模式與被併購方的母國和主併公司的母國是否為同一國家沒有必然的關聯。（五）購併雙方規模的大小或許也會影響整合的方式，在三個個案實例中，大對小進行購併都出現了吸納式整合模式，說明了其間的關聯性，但這層關係可能是建築在中介變數的影響下才成立的。筆者認為，主併公司的經營優勢或所有權優勢可能是中介變數，這才是影響主併公司採取吸納式整合模式的關鍵。（六）台商從事購併的整合活動都是從交易後才開始的現象。這和西方在目標公司選擇過程中，或交易談判時即開始進行的習慣有明顯的不同。因此，以「購併」─所透露的「先購後併」意義來形容台商購併的經歷應是較適宜的。（七）當購併達成了公司的策略目標或合併綜效，可以為公司創造價值或增值；反之，則會為公司帶來價值破壞，嚴重者甚至毀滅公司所有價值，將購併成長而來的價值付之一炬。（八）購併成功的可能性來自於整合和時間因素的作用，在購併後短時間內（通常在二年以內）發生整合效益，則購併成功的可能性高；若是購併後經歷了一段長時間（通常在二年以上）而未獲得整合效益，則購併以失敗告終的可能性高，也就是成功的可能性低。 四、台資企業以國際併購方式進入中國大陸市場投資是條可行的方式，但由於是外資購併，影響其成敗的因素多元，在購併決策和購併後整合經營時仍須謹慎應對，才能確保成功的可能性。在中國大陸經濟的持續成長、國有企業的轉型與改革和外商購併法制環境趨於健全之際，台商以購併進入中國投資是可以考慮的方式，尤其是對跟隨者和後進者來說，更是一個追求快速成長者的較佳選擇，或許可以透過此投資方式，取得與先驅者並駕齊驅或迎頭趕上的機會。但投資者也應考慮在中國大陸從事購併可能的風險。尤其，中國大陸的政經環境不可預期因素較多、資訊的不對稱和不夠透明化、產權（股權）問題的限制、公司治理結構的制約、司法救濟的不足、法律與文化差異等仍是外資購併大陸企業的障礙，這是想要以購併投資中國公司所必須考慮的問題。 總之，透過購併來達成公司成長，須在明確的公司願景和成長目標下，審視自身的能力與條件，以及外在環境的變化，根據需要制定一套可行的購併策略，再確實執行，並做好整合工作，購併才能增加公司的價值，以成長達到公司追求的願景。 / Keeping growth has been the core issue for corporations seeking continuous operations whereas internationalization poses a new challenge in this global era. International mergers and acquisitions (M&As) as a means for corporations aiming at business expansion are common occurrences, especially in the late 20th century when multinational companies (MNCs) were aggressively seeking global presence and expanding overseas operations. Mainland China, geographically adjacent to Taiwan, has been implementing its economic reforms since 1978 and grew rapidly as the new powerhouse of the world in manufacturing as well as in consumption. China has inevitably become one of the top-tier for foreign direct investment (FDI) among all developing countries. International M&As/ Cross-border M&As, however, have not been commonly utilized as vehicles by foreign investors to penetrate China’s market. In the year of 2000, international M&As only represented 5.5 % of the total FDI in China, mainly resulted from the strict regulations on its immature market mechanism and capital market. In light of the Chinese government’s recent attempts to improve its investment environment, including the deregulation of M&As, and to attract foreign investment via M&As, this research project focuses on Taiwanese enterprises’ M&As strategy in Mainland China in line with seeking continuous growth and through internationalization. Major emphasis on investment avenues Taiwanese enterprises to be the best situations of taking advantage in penetrating Chinese markets, and whether Taiwanese enterprises gaining better access to the Chinese market via M&As. In the past, the volume of research in this field is comparatively low; therefore, this research can be regarded as an exploratory study. With in-depth case studies of three selected Taiwanese enterprises that have adopted M&A strategy to enter the Chinese market, based upon my studies, key findings below. 1.“Time Saving" would be the major concern in taking M&A as approach for Taiwanese enterprises to invest in Mainland China. That is to say, to enter a rapidly growing market like China within the shortest time period has not only become the key successful factor (KSF) but also the theme center while envisioning its investment strategy. M&As are under most circumstances, considered as the most suitable and fastest strategy to enter the market, within the shortest time frame, especially when “time” is considered as KSF, and crucial element. Therefore, compared to other FDI avenues, M&As indeed have their unique edge. In terms of saving time, acquiring an existing operation is more effective than starting from ground zero, i.e. building new facilities. Given the identical time frame, with good strategic planning from the home country, the buy-in approach has advantages in boosting up capacity, creating new markets, avoiding high expenses caused by inefficiencies in the start-up period. Parent companies are more likely to have a leap in growth by taking acquisitions with assistance from the external and the growth curve would be different from the S curve. 2.M&As become the major growth strategy for Taiwanese enterprises to approach both purposes of internationalization, and entrance of overseas markets. That cross-border acquisitions of Taiwanese enterprise vehicles to enter overseas markets usually combines two characteristics, strategic acquisitions and rapid growth. M&As often act as a transition point for most Taiwanese enterprise in internationalization process. In other words, Taiwanese enterprise entry policy, like that of the MNCs counterpart, tends to take modules of starting from a low involvement to high, from a low degree of investment to high, and from a low level of control to high; The internationalization process is most often initiated by M&As, followed by increasing investment in constructing new facilities with full ownership. Applying such a policy to enter a foreign market utilizes both internal and external forces to obtain a company’s growth whereas a number of companies, after M&As are completed, prefer strategic alliances with external parties to sustain internationalization. As companies reach their desired growth goals and objectives via well planned investment strategy in the first stage, such as M&As, they should constantly be aware of any subtle changes in the investment environment in order to reduce potential risks arising from any rapid expansion and growth. In a relatively low-risk investment environment, steady growth is anticipated if the parent company is well managed and capable of adapting to environmental changes. That is to say, a parent company should always enhance its operating capability in order to mitigate risks from the ever- changing environment. 3.Can M&A strategy be applied to achieve goals and objectives? Here’s the brief of my thesis conclusion. (1) Post merger integrations (PMI) depend on the degree of interdependence between parent company and acquired company, such as resource supplies and organizational structure, which has matched Integration Matrix Theory by Haspealagh and Jemison. (2) Stock shares reallocations after acquisitions may result in the changes of integrated corporate culture, which illustrates that PMI is subject to variation. (3) When a parent company benefits from the operating over its acquired company, the PMI module is usually in the form of forward integration. (4) There are no correlations between the country origins of the parent company and the acquired company. (5) Scales of the parent company and the acquired company may influence PMI modules. Correlations are defined via these 3 case studies that absorption mode occurs when the parent company has operating advantages over acquired company. Based on the study result, the parent company’s operating advantages or scale over the acquired company are key elements for the occurrence of absorption mode. (6) Unlike enterprises in the USA or Europe where integrations usually begin during M&A negotiation or the process of searching for acquiring targets, Taiwanese enterprises normally start integration process after the acquisition deal is completed. (7) Additional value is created only when M&As comply with a company’s goals and objectives; otherwise, negative impacts from M&As apply. (8) How and when to integrate may be two key factors for a successful acquisition. The study indicates that integration would have a higher chance of success if the process is initiated within two years’ time frame after acquisition. 4.It is recommended that Taiwanese enterprises’ take on M&A as an approach to enter the Chinese market. However, many factors may attribute the results of M&As. The strategic forming and the PMI need to be carefully planned. Mainland China’s investment environment is improving, especially in the deregulation upon FDI’s M&As activities. With its increasing volumes of governmental entities’ reforms and transform actions, as well as its continuous economic growth, M&As strategy is indeed an alternative for Taiwanese enterprises to enter Chinese markets. Such strategy benefits market followers the most as resources and market entry can be obtained within the shortest time frame, and eventually to compete with other market frontiers. Nevertheless, investors should take risks into consideration, comparatively, there are higher levels of uncertainty in its economic and legal environments, restrictions toward ownership and organizational structure, shareholder limitations, culture and legal differences, as well as controlled information channels and sharing. In summary, to reach continuous growth via M&As, strategy should be in line with company goals and objectives. Such strategy should only be made with intensive evaluation of one’s capabilities and environmental circumstances, followed by well planned implementation and integration. By doing so, M&As will create additional value toward companies’ goals and objectives in seeking continuous growth.

À mesure que les performances intrinsèques des bâtiments s’améliorent, les usages énergétiques non réglementés, que nous associons à une notion d’intensité énergétique des usages, prennent de plus en plus d’importance dans le bilan des consommations des bâtiments. De plus, les bâtiments performants font apparaître des problématiques au niveau de l’exploitation des installations. Ces constats nous permettent d’affirmer qu’il est aujourd’hui important de proposer un cadre pour le suivi et l’optimisation de la sobriété énergétique des usages et l’exploitation performante pour la maîtrise des consommations énergétiques réelles des bâtiments. Cette thèse propose tout d’abord de développer des modèles polynomiaux de prédiction de la consommation énergétique tous usages en fonction des facteurs caractérisant l’intensité d’usage, la qualité d’usage et la qualité d’exploitation. Pour cela, nous utilisons le logiciel EnergyPlus afin de réaliser des simulations énergétiques dynamiques (SED) sur des valeurs de paramètres définis par la méthode des plans d’expérience D-optimaux. Le modèle polynomial créé permet alors d’effectuer, avec un faible temps de calcul, une propagation des incertitudes sur les consommations d’énergie calculées. Pour ce faire, nous utilisons les données mesurées en exploitation dans le cadre de la mesure et de la vérification de la performance énergétique, associées à une incertitude concernant leur valeur. Nous pouvons alors déterminer l’incertitude globale sur les consommations énergétiques et identifier les pistes pour la réduire, permettant ainsi un meilleur suivi et encadrement de la consommation énergétique réelle. / Since building envelope and MEP systems characteristics regularly improve, the weight of non-regulatory energy end-uses increases. These energy end-uses are typically associated with tenants or owners’ activities. In addition, high performance buildings show new issues related to HVAC systems operations. Therefore, it is important to evaluate and improve non-regulatory energy end-uses energy as well as HVAC systems operations efficiencies. We have developed polynomial energy models that can predict energy consumption as a function of building’s activities characteristics and HVAC systems operations factors. We used EnergyPlus software in order to build reliable energy models along with the D-optimum design of experiments method (DOE). Then, we used measurement and verification (M&V) data, associated with probability functions, to determine the associated uncertainty of the calculated energy consumption. Finally, we combine the latter with the polynomial modeling error to calculate the energy consumption global uncertainty, with the goal to identify strategies to reduce it.

Nichtstationarität ist eines der häufigsten, jedoch nach wie vor ungelösten Probleme in der Zeitreihenanalyse und ein immer wiederkehrendes Phänomen, sowohl in theoretischen als auch in angewandten Arbeiten. Die jüngsten Fortschritte in der ökonometrischen Theorie und in Methoden des maschinellen Lernens haben es Forschern ermöglicht, neue Ansätze für empirische Analysen zu entwickeln, von denen einige in dieser Arbeit erörtert werden sollen. Kapitel 3 befasst sich mit der Vorhersage von Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A). Obwohl es keinen Zweifel daran gibt, dass M&A-Aktivitäten im Unternehmenssektor wellenartigen Mustern folgen, gibt es keine einheitlich akzeptierte Definition einer solchen "Mergerwelle" im Zeitreihenkontext. Zur Messung der Fusions- und Übernahmetätigkeit werden häufig Zeitreihenmodelle mit Zähldaten verwendet und Mergerwellen werden dann als Cluster von Zeiträumen mit einer ungewöhnlich hohen Anzahl von solchen Mergers & Acqusitions im Nachhinein definiert. Die Verteilung der Abschlüsse ist jedoch in der Regel nicht normal (von Gaußscher Natur). In jüngster Zeit wurden verschiedene Ansätze vorgeschlagen, die den zeitlich variablen Charakter der M&A-Aktivitäten berücksichtigen, aber immer noch eine a-priori-Auswahl der Parameter erfordern. Wir schlagen vor, die Kombination aus einem lokalem parametrischem Ansatz und Multiplikator-Bootstrap an einen Zähldatenkontext anzupassen, um lokal homogene Intervalle in den Zeitreihen der M&A-Aktivität zu identifizieren. Dies macht eine manuelle Parameterauswahl überflüssig und ermöglicht die Erstellung genauer Prognosen ohne manuelle Eingaben. Kapitel 4 ist eine empirische Studie über Sprünge in Hochfrequenzmärkten für Kryptowährungen. Während Aufmerksamkeit ein Prädiktor für die Preise von Kryptowährungenn ist und Sprünge in Bitcoin-Preisen bekannt sind, wissen wir wenig über ihre Alternativen. Die Untersuchung von hochfrequenten Krypto-Ticks gibt uns die einzigartige Möglichkeit zu bestätigen, dass marktübergreifende Renditen von Kryptowährungenn durch Sprünge in Hochfrequenzdaten getrieben werden, die sich um Black-Swan-Ereignisse gruppieren und den saisonalen Schwankungen von Volatilität und Handelsvolumen ähneln. Regressionen zeigen, dass Sprünge innerhalb des Tages die Renditen am Ende des Tages in Größe und Richtung erheblich beeinflussen. Dies liefert grundlegende Forschungsergebnisse für Krypto-Optionspreismodelle und eröffnet Möglichkeiten, die ökonometrische Theorie weiterzuentwickeln, um die spezifische Marktmikrostruktur von Kryptowährungen besser zu berücksichtigen. In Kapitel 5 wird die zunehmende Verbreitung von Kryptowährungen (Digital Assets / DAs) wie Bitcoin (BTC) erörtert, die den Bedarf an genauen Optionspreismodellen erhöht. Bestehende Methoden werden jedoch der Volatilität der aufkommenden DAs nicht gerecht. Es wurden viele Modelle vorgeschlagen, um der unorthodoxen Marktdynamik und den häufigen Störungen in der Mikrostruktur zu begegnen, die durch die Nicht-Stationarität und die besonderen Statistiken der DA-Märkte verursacht werden. Sie sind jedoch entweder anfällig für den Fluch der Dimensionalität, da zusätzliche Komplexität erforderlich ist, um traditionelle Theorien anzuwenden, oder sie passen sich zu sehr an historische Muster an, die sich möglicherweise nie wiederholen. Stattdessen nutzen wir die jüngsten Fortschritte beim Clustering von Marktregimen (MR) mit dem Implied Stochastic Volatility Model (ISVM) auf einem sehr aktuellen Datensatz, der BTC-Optionen auf der beliebten Handelsplattform Deribit abdeckt. Time-Regime Clustering ist eine temporale Clustering-Methode, die die historische Entwicklung eines Marktes in verschiedene Volatilitätsperioden unter Berücksichtigung der Nicht-Stationarität gruppiert. ISVM kann die Erwartungen der Anleger in jeder der stimmungsgesteuerten Perioden berücksichtigen, indem es implizite Volatilitätsdaten (IV) verwendet. In diesem Kapitel wenden wir diese integrierte Zeitregime-Clustering- und ISVM-Methode (MR-ISVM) auf Hochfrequenzdaten für BTC-Optionen an. Wir zeigen, dass MR-ISVM dazu beiträgt, die Schwierigkeiten durch die komplexe Anpassung an Sprünge in den Merkmalen höherer Ordnung von Optionspreismodellen zu überwinden. Dies ermöglicht es uns, den Markt auf der Grundlage der Erwartungen seiner Teilnehmer auf adaptive Weise zu bewerten und das Verfahren auf einen neuen Datensatz anzuwenden, der bisher unerforschte DA-Dynamiken umfasst. / Nonstationarity is one of the most prevalent, yet unsolved problems in time series analysis and a reoccuring phenomenon both in theoretical, and applied works. Recent advances in econometric theory and machine learning methods have allowed researchers to adpot and develop new approaches for empirical analyses, some of which will be discussed in this thesis. Chapter 3 is about predicting merger & acquisition (M&A) events. While there is no doubt that M&A activity in the corporate sector follows wave-like patterns, there is no uniquely accepted definition of such a "merger wave" in a time series context. Count-data time series models are often employed to measure M&A activity and merger waves are then defined as clusters of periods with an unusually high number of M&A deals retrospectively. However, the distribution of deals is usually not normal (Gaussian). More recently, different approaches that take into account the time-varying nature of M&A activity have been proposed, but still require the a-priori selection of parameters. We propose adapating the combination of the Local Parametric Approach and Multiplier Bootstrap to a count data setup in order to identify locally homogeneous intervals in the time series of M&A activity. This eliminates the need for manual parameter selection and allows for the generation of accurate forecasts without any manual input. Chapter 4 is an empirical study on jumps in high frequency digital asset markets. While attention is a predictor for digital asset prices, and jumps in Bitcoin prices are well-known, we know little about its alternatives. Studying high frequency crypto ticks gives us the unique possibility to confirm that cross market digital asset returns are driven by high frequency jumps clustered around black swan events, resembling volatility and trading volume seasonalities. Regressions show that intra-day jumps significantly influence end of day returns in size and direction. This provides fundamental research for crypto option pricing models and opens up possibilities to evolve econometric theory to better address the specific market microstructure of cryptos. Chapter 5 discusses the increasing adoption of Digital Assets (DAs), such as Bitcoin (BTC), which raises the need for accurate option pricing models. Yet, existing methodologies fail to cope with the volatile nature of the emerging DAs. Many models have been proposed to address the unorthodox market dynamics and frequent disruptions in the microstructure caused by the non-stationarity, and peculiar statistics, in DA markets. However, they are either prone to the curse of dimensionality, as additional complexity is required to employ traditional theories, or they overfit historical patterns that may never repeat. Instead, we leverage recent advances in market regime (MR) clustering with the Implied Stochastic Volatility Model (ISVM) on a very recent dataset covering BTC options on the popular trading platform Deribit. Time-regime clustering is a temporal clustering method, that clusters the historic evolution of a market into different volatility periods accounting for non-stationarity. ISVM can incorporate investor expectations in each of the sentiment-driven periods by using implied volatility (IV) data. In this paper, we apply this integrated time-regime clustering and ISVM method (termed MR-ISVM) to high-frequency data on BTC options. We demonstrate that MR-ISVM contributes to overcome the burden of complex adaption to jumps in higher order characteristics of option pricing models. This allows us to price the market based on the expectations of its participants in an adaptive fashion and put the procedure to action on a new dataset covering previously unexplored DA dynamics.

In South Africa, democracy has brought transformative improvement in the system of governance. The Constitution of the Republic of South Africa (1996) implemented in the post-apartheid era, has raised the status of the lowest sphere of government, by granting these authorities delegated responsibilities. This sphere of governance is known as local government (municipal government) and in the present context developmental local government is both democratically elected and decentralized. The restructuring of local governance requires municipalities to serve the communities within their areas of jurisdiction. This has brought capacity challenges for the municipalities. They are charged with delivering acceptable standards of services to the residents. The current lack of deliverance is evident in the widespread protests, with community members showing their dissatisfaction with sub-standard service delivery and backlogs. Furthermore, municipalities are required to formulate their own by-laws improve the lives of community members, and to implement their legislative mandates satisfactorily. In order for the municipalities to perform more effectively, a transformative model is necessary. The quality of services currently delivered at municipal level must be reviewed. Monitoring and evaluation are the key elements of assessment which must be undertaken. The rationale behind this monitoring and evaluation is to make the system of governance more effective through an even-handed assessment of policies, programmes, projects, strategies, performance of personnel, and the organization as a whole. For the purpose of this study, the researcher explored the challenges regarding monitoring and evaluation and its impact on sustainable development in Sedibeng District Municipality utilizing the quantitative research approach. A model is proposed for improvement called as Monitoring and Evaluation for Sustainable Development (MESD). / PhD (Public Management and Governance), North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2014