Inom krigsvetenskapen används asymmetrisk konfliktteori för att förklara utkomsten av konflikter. Data under 1900-talets andra hälft visar att mer än varannan asymmetrisk konflikt slutar till den svagares fördel. Hur kan en relativt svagare aktör dra fördel av detta? Med en kritisk teoriutvecklande ansats syftar arbetet till att studera hur relativt svagare aktörer kan dra fördel av asymmetriska strategier i marin miljö. Detta sker genom att placera begreppet strategisk interaktion i relation till marina strategier vilket bildar arbetets teoretiska ramverk och på så sätt bidrar till en utveckling av teoribildningen. Genom en hypotesprövande fallstudie av sjöfartskriget i konflikten mellan Iran och Irak uppvisar det teoretiska ramverket samverkande förklaringsfaktorer. Detta innebär att strategisk interaktion inte entydigt eller enskilt kan förklara utkomsten av asymmetriska konflikter. Två kompletterande och i någon mån konkurrerande faktorer visar sig ha stort förklaringsvärde, intresseasymmetri och hur väl rustad den relativt svagare aktören är. Konkret betyder detta att en kombination av oväntad teknik och taktik tillsammans med en tydlig intensitet i uppträdandet kan påverka utkomsten av konflikten. Studiens viktigaste resultat visar att framtida studier fordras för att bekräfta interaktionseffekterna i det teoretiska ramverket och hur arbetets beroende variabel – framgång ska förstås av samtiden.

No description available.

Space technologies and the tools of space warfare are proliferating across Earth. The use of spacepower in conflict necessitates strategic thinking. Strategic theory can guide and improve strategic thought about outer space. Drawing on strategic theory, this thesis develops a spacepower theory in the next step of a collective theory-making effort about warfare in the Space Age. This spacepower theory is based on seven distinct, complementary, and interacting propositions that aim to shift the debate of spacepower away from space weaponisation and the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), and towards a more holistic view of the vast possibilities granted by spacepower. This spacepower theory proposes that space warfare only has meaning in so far it works towards the command of space; that the command of space is about manipulating celestial lines of communication; that spacepower in Earth orbit is a place to conduct strategic manoeuvres to influence the wider war and grand strategic goals; and that the command of space can have direct meaning for battlefield success through its dispersing effects. The theory is based on three major strategic analogies from terrestrial strategic theory and experience. First, space warfare is a continuation of terrestrial politics. Second, space is like the sea in its most basic concepts. Third, Earth orbit is like a coastal region. The contributions of this work are a theory that assists the individual’s education on warfare in the Space Age that takes emphasis away from space-based weaponry and the RMA, and a treatise that demonstrates and encourages a pedagogical method of analysis in strategic studies. This has tentative implications for wider discussions of astropolitics in International Relations (IR) as well. IR will continue in its usefulness in the cosmos, while Terran IR today must account for the realities of the Space Age.

This dissertation explores the growing field of study around Maritime Security. While an increasingly common sub-heading in American naval strategy documents, maritime security operations are largely framed around individual threats (i.e. counter-piracy, counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics). Here, we endeavor to explore how a seemingly disparate set of transnational issues fit into a more coherent framework to give greater theoretical substance to the notion of Maritime Security as a distinct concept. In particular, we examine, as our research question, whether the Broken Windows theory, a criminological construct of social disorganization, provides the lens through which to theorize maritime security in the littorals. By extrapolating from criminology, this dissertation engages with a small but growing impulse in studies on insurgencies, terrorism, and piracy to look beyond classic theories of security to better understand phenomena of political violence. To evaluate our research question, we begin by identifying two critical components of the Broken Windows theory, multidimensionality and context specificity. Multidimensionality refers to the web of interrelated individuals, organizations, and infrastructure upon which crime operates. Context specificity refers to the powerful influence of an individual or community's environment on behavior. These two themes, as explored in this dissertation, are brought into stark relief through an application of the Broken Windows theory. Leveraging this understanding of the theory, we explore our research question by employing process-tracing and detailed descriptions across three case studies (one primary and two illustrative)—the Caribbean Basin, the Gulf of Guinea, and the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. In so doing, we demonstrate how applying the lens that Broken Windows provides yields new and interesting perspectives on maritime security. As a consequence, this dissertation offers an example of a theoretical framework that provides greater continuity to the missions or threats frequently binned under the heading of maritime security, but infrequently associated with one another in the literature.

This thesis examines the geopolitical consequences of China's search for energy resources on the Indian Ocean and South China Sea. It provides a brief outline of the energy situation of the world as a whole, specifically how it is becoming a more globalized and singular market. This change is occurring at the same time as a pronounced shift away from the traditional measurements of 'power' towards 'softer' more subtle definitions. There is a brief section outlining the geopolitical teachings of Alfred T. Mahan, specifically how he advocated seapower primarily for the purpose of providing the stability and security necessary for trade. Chinese analysts have been embracing the teachings of Mahan, but also interpreting them in a way that justifies the naval buildup Beijing has been embarking on in recent years. The paper briefly looks at the potential sources that China could turn to meet its energy needs, but concludes that it will have to rely on oil for the foreseeable future. It then attempts to define overall Chinese interests, specifically how nearly all of these relate somehow to energy security, thus underlining the importance of this topic to leaders in Beijing. The last half of the work delves into a geopolitical analysis of the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, and how militarization in the...

In the Indian Ocean Region, China's economic and strategic interests are converging as many of its investments lie along the vital ocean routes needed to literally and figuratively fuel its growing economy. The rollout of Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative, against the backdrop of, and in line with this convergence, has raised concerns about the military-strategic utility of various infrastructure projects. The increased economic connectivity that drives the Belt and Road has inherent strategic consequences, but the degree to which geostrategic factors drive investments divides analysts. Some believe that certain ports have been purposefully selected as future bases for China's navy. To address the difficulty of comprehending China's foreign policy decisions, this thesis draws on a neoclassical realist interpretation of international relations, and uses geographical location, collective memory, strategic culture, and domestic politics to develop a better understanding of Chinese policymakers' perceptions of their international security environment. This study develops methodology to evaluate the strategic value of a site in context to different basing strategies. The work sheds light on how China views its future position in the world by deciphering intentions behind Chines investments in ports...

Diploma thesis 'US-China Relationship in the Field of Naval Security - Cooperation or Conflict' focuses on the current phenomenon of Chinese naval rise and its implications for the relationship between China and today's leading naval power United States both in the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean region. Using the comparative analysis, both the strategies as well as naval capacities of China and the US in both aforementioned regions are compared in order to assess the future character of their naval relationship. This thesis addresses also the evolution of Chinese navy and Chinese naval modernization on its own as well as its motives and those ideational and material factors which have a considerable impact on this modernization.