This dissertation presents an extension of the warlord competition models found in Skaperdas (2002) and Konrad and Skaperdas (2012). I consider two non-parasitic warlords located on a line. Each warlord allocates resources for the extraction of natural resources, the production of goods and services, and conflict with the opposing warlord. Within the symmetric rates of seizure model, I use three different forms of the contest success function, a primary tool in the conflict theory literature, in my analysis. I show that the warlord closer to the point of conflict will invest less into the hiring of warriors and more into the production of goods and services, yet wins a larger proportion of total goods and services produced within the economy. Under certain conditions, the placement of the point of conflict at the midpoint between the two warlords maximizes the total resources toward war and minimizes total production. Under the asymmetric rates of seizure model, I find that the warlord closer to the point of conflict invests more in warfare and less in production; that is, results that counter what is found in the symmetric model. / Economics

In the finance literature determinants of Capital structure have been widely debated. Previous studies have mainly focused on microeconomic determinants in countries outside Sweden and research on the Swedish market has been sparse. This study aims to analyze how microeconomic determinants such as profitability, firm size and tangible assets affect the capital structure and further how the determinants from the Swedish macroenvironment like inflation, tax rate and interest rate affect capital structure. The study considers previous theories on capital structures relevance and evaluates the Swedish firms support for the Irrelevance Theory, Pecking order and the Trade-off theory. In other words, by evaluating how the determinants affect the capital structure we were able to see connections between theory and how Swedish firms determine their financing decision.  Based on a review of the literature and theories, the determinants, the quantitative approach,  and collection method was decided. The data was collected over a 10-year period between  2010 - 2019 and amounted to 1116 firms and 44 632 observations. A multiple regression  method was performed where the dependent variable the debt ratio was split into short-term,  long-term, and total debt to get a better understanding of the results.  Analysis of the results demonstrated that Swedish firms' total debt ratio had a significant negative relation towards profitability. This indicates that Swedish firms choose to finance their operation with internal funds rather than with debt which supports the Pecking order Theory. However, the determinant growth show significant negative relationship to the  debt ratio which is in support for the Trade-off theory. The results imply Swedish firms conflicting support for theories on capital structure. Our results from a change in the  Swedish macroenvironment show that inflation causes firms long-term debt ratio to  decrease, which potentially demonstrates the fear of higher interest rates as inflation hits  and an unwillingness to finance with debt when the cost of financial distress increases.   Considering previous studies has shown contrasting results on the determinants effect on capital structure. We consider our findings to be in line with overall expectations and believe we add further knowledge which can be applied to the Swedish business environment.

<p>Contest outcomes often involve some mix of skill and chance.  In three essays, I vary the sources of noise and show how player actions either influence, or are influenced by, noise.  I begin with a classic multi-battle contest, the Colonel Blotto game.  Due to his disadvantage in resources, the weak player in this contest stochastically distributes resources to a subset of battlefields while neglecting all others in an attempt to achieve a positive payoff.  In contrast, the strong player evenly distributes his resources in order to defend all battlefields, while randomly assigning extra resources to some.  Because the weak player benefits from randomizing over larger numbers of battlefields, a strong player has incentive to decrease the range over which the weak player can randomize.  When battlefields are exogenously partitioned into subsets, or \textit{fronts}, he is able to do this by decentralizing his forces to each front in a stage prior to the distribution of forces to battlefields and actual conflict.  These allocations are permanent, and each subset of battlefields effectively becomes its own, independent Blotto subgame.  I show that there exist parameter regions in which the strong player's unique equilibrium payoffs with decentralization are strictly higher than the unique equilibrium payoffs without decentralization.</p> <p><br></p> <p>In my second paper, I show how sources of exogenous noise, what Clausewitz referred to as the ``fog of war," obscure developments on the battlefield from the view of a military leader, while individual inexperience and lack of expertise in a particular situation influence his decisionmaking.  I model both forms of uncertainty using the decentralized Colonel Blotto game from the first chapter.  To do so, I first test the robustness of allocation-stage subgame perfect equilibria by changing the contest success function to a lottery, then I find the players' quantal response equilibria (QRE) to show how individual decision-making is impacted by bounded rationality and noisy best responses, represented by a range of psi values in the logit QRE.  I find that player actions rely significantly less on decentralization strategies under the lottery CSF compared to the case of the all-pay auction, owing mainly to the increased exogenous noise.  Moreover, agent QRE and heterogeneous QRE approximate subgame perfect equilibria for high values of psi in the case of an all-pay auction, but under the lottery CSF, QRE is largely unresponsive to changes in psi due to the increase in exogenous noise.</p> <p><br></p> <p>Finally, I examine a potential method for introducing noise into the all-pay auction (APA) contest success function (CSF) utilized in the Colonel Blotto games of the first two chapters.  Many contests are fundamentally structured as APA, yet there is a tendency in the empirical literature to utilize a lottery CSF when stochastic outcomes are possible or the tractability of pure strategy equilibria is desired.  However, previous literature has shown that using a lottery CSF sacrifices multiple distinguishing characteristics of the APA, such as the mixed strategy equilibria described by Baye, Kovenock, and de Vries (1996), the exclusion principle of Baye, Kovenock, and de Vries (1993), and the caps on lobbying principle of Che and Gale (1998).  I overcome this by formulating an APA that incorporates noise and retains the defining characteristics of an auction by forming a convex combination of the APA and fair lottery with the risk parameter lambda.  I prove that equilibria hold by following the proofs of Baye et al. (1996, 1993) and Che and Gale (1998), and I show the new CSF satisfies the axioms of Skaperdas (1996).  While player and auctioneer actions, payments, and revenues in the noisy APA adhere closely to the those of the APA for low levels of noise, the effect of discounted expected payoffs results in lower aggregate payments and payoffs when noise is high.  Finally, I show the noisy APA is only noise equivalent to the lottery CSF when lambda = 0, i.e., the fair lottery.</p>

As a component of the regulatory structure controlling building construction and land development in Australia, the system of building regulation was reformed during a period of significant restructuring of the Australian economy. The microeconomic reforms aimed to find efficiencies in government and industry sectors, and with respect to the latter, facilitate the development of competitive trade structures across national and global markets. The research provides a critical narrative account of the development and outcomes of the microeconomic reform of building regulation between 1990 and 2003. The microeconomic reform process is examined in the context of the vastly differing approaches of two Australian states, Victoria and New South Wales, with respect to the national reform agenda which was initiated and led by the Commonwealth government in response to the increasing globalization of the national economy. An understanding of what happened and why and how t he states differed with respect to the national reform agenda enabled the outcomes of the reforms to be examined for their impact upon government, industry and the community. The regulation of building construction is a constitutional responsibility of the state governments and has traditionally been controlled by local government. However, control is increasingly being centralized at the national level, in response to international pressures to adopt performance-based regulations, standards and governance systems that accord to neoliberal ideology. This has resulted in a reduction of state and local government involvement in certain building control functions with a commensurate increased role for the private sector; an increase in the complexity and quantity of regulatory instruments; a reduction in government accountability for the standard of building construction; the development of structures to facilitate competitive intranational and international trade in construction-related goods and services and a reduction in the quality and standard of buildings. The principal benefits of the reforms have accrued to industry and to government and the least benefits have accrued to the community/consumer.

<p>This dissertation is a collection of three papers, each one being a chapter. The running subject of interest in all the papers is the strategic behavior of individuals in different environments. In the first chapter, I experimentally investigate collusive behavior under simultaneous interaction in multiple strategic settings, a phenomenon which I call multiple contacts. I investigate how multiple contacts impact collusive behavior when the players are symmetric or asymmetric. The second chapter is a joint work with Dr. Brian Roberson. In this chapter, we examine the role of cognitive diversity in teams on performance in a large innovation contest setting. We use a theoretical model to derive conditions under which increasing diversity can improve the performance in the large contest. Finally, in the third chapter, a joint work with Dr. Yaroslav Rosokha and Dr. Masha Shunko, we experimentally study players' behavior when they interact in an infinitely repeated environment, where the state of the world in each period is stochastic and dependent on a transition rule. Our main questions are how the transition rule impacts behavior and whether asymmetry in players impacts this.</p> <p><br></p> <p>In the first chapter, I study the phenomenon of multiple contacts using a laboratory experiment with multiple symmetric or asymmetric prisoners' dilemma games. When agents interact in multiple settings, even if defection or deviation from collusion in one setting can not be credibly punished in the same setting, it may be punishable in other settings. This can increase the incentive to collude. I observe a statistically significant increase in probability of punishment in one game after defection in another game under multiple contacts, but only when the games are asymmetric in payoffs. While punishment of defection increases in some situations, I do not find any significant increase in collusion due to multiple contacts in either symmetric or asymmetric environment. In addition to this result, to find further support for the theory which suggests that agents should use different strategies under multiple contacts, I estimate the underlying strategies that subjects use in my experiment. To this end, I modify popular strategies (e.g., Grim Trigger, Tit-for-Tat, etc.) to condition on the history observed in multiple strategic settings. I find that only for games with asymmetric payoffs subjects use these modified strategies in the presence of multiple contacts.</p> <p><br></p> <p>The second chapter is a theoretical work. In our model of large team innovation contest, teams develop an innovation using the skills or perspectives (tools) belonging to individual team members and the costly effort they provide.</p> <p>Prizes are awarded based on the values of the teams' innovations. Within a team, the team members posses different skills or perspectives (tools) which may be applied to innovation problems. For a given innovation problem and a given level of team effort, different combinations of tools within a team may generate different values for the team innovation. In this context, we examine the issues of individual team performance as a function of a team's own composition and the overall performance of the contest as a function of the compositions of the teams. We find that the question of whether increasing diversity leads to an increase in expected performance, for both an individual team and the overall contest, depends on the efficiency with which teams are able to effectively apply diverse sets of tools to innovation problems. Thus, our paper provides a channel -- other than a direct cost of diversity -- through which diversity can be beneficial or detrimental depending on how efficient teams are at utilizing diverse sets of team member tools.</p> <p><br></p> <p>The final chapter is another experimental study. We study an enviroment where individuals interact with each other in a prisoners' dilemma game repeatedly over time. However, the payoffs of the prisoners' dilemma game is decided stochastically using a transition rule. We vary the transition rule from alternation to random and study the change in subject behavior when the interaction is either symmetric or asymmetric. Our results show that in asymmetric environment, alternation can improve cooperation rates.</p> <p>With random transition rule, symmetric environment is more conducive to cooperation. We find that asymmetric environment with random transition rules performs the worst in terms of cooperation rates.</p>

A wide variety of machine learning algorithms havebeen used to predict stock prices. The aim of this project hasbeen to implement a machine learning algorithm using supportvector regression to predict the stock price of two well knowncompanies—Apple and Microsoft—one day into the future usingthe current day’s stock price, macroeconomic data and microeconomicdata and to compare the prediction error with the differentdata inputs. The results show that the addition of macroeconomicand microeconomic data did not improve the prediction error.This suggests that the macroeconomic and microeconomic dataused in this project does not contain additional information aboutfuture stock prices. The results also show that support vectorregression performs worse than linear regression, however inthis case no definite conclusion can be drawn since only onekernel and a handful of parameter values were considered whentraining and testing the algorithm. However, these results mightalso suggest that using the current day’s data is not sufficient tobe able to predict the non-linear relationships. / Ett flertal maskininlärnings-algoritmer har använts för att förutspå aktiepriser. Målet med det här projektet har varit att implementera en maskininlärnings-algoritm som använder sig av support vector regression för att förutspå aktiepriset av två välkända företag—Apple och Microsoft—en dag in i framtiden genom att använda dagens aktiepris, makroekonomisk data och mikroekonomisk data samt att jämföra prediktionsfelet med dem olika indata. Resultaten indikerar att additionen av makroekonomisk och mikroekonomisk data inte förbättrade prediktionsfelet. Detta antyder att den makroekonomiska och mikroekonomiska data som användes i projektet inte innehåller någon ytterliggare information om framtida aktiepriser. Resultaten indikerade också att linjär regression presterar bättre än support vector regression, men i detta fallet kan ingen definitiv slutsats dras eftersom endast en kernel och ett par parameter-värden användes för att träna och testa algoritmen. Däremot kan dessa resultat också antyda att a inte är tillräcklig för att kunna förutspå dem icke-linjära förhållandena. / Kandidatexjobb i elektroteknik 2021, KTH, Stockholm

In the present study, a neoclassical general equilibrium model is developed to study the dualistic economic development of a predominantly agrarian economy, Bangladesh. Quantitative analysis is undertaken in order to make assessments of several development strategies within the framework of the model. The linkages between the agricultural (rural) and the manufacturing (urban) sectors via the output and labour markets are incorporated in the model and empirical analysis. In specifying the aggregate relations in the model especially those of the rural sector, the analysis is based on the microeconomic relations of a 'representative peasant household'. The approach is to first estimate the structural parameters of the model (simultaneous system) and then to perform simulation exercises. These simulations permit us to move beyond the restrictions of growth theory, since the direction of influences on different variables and their quantitative dimensions may be assessed. The aim is to determine the differential impact of exogenous investments and related public policy measares on the two sectors, especially on the level of employment, output and wages. Within a disequilibrium growth process which allows for differences in wages in the two sectors, the impact of rural-urban migration of people on the economy of Bangladesh and its policy implications are assessed. The policy simulations suggest that strategies which favour agricultural rather than industrial development have a more positive impact on output, employment, and the reduction of rural-to-urban migration of people. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Dieses Buch umfaßt die Darstellung der traditionellen und modernen mikroökonomischen Theorie; es enthält Modelle der grundlegenden ökonomischen Einheiten: Konsumenten, Produzenten und Märkte. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit wird dabei dem Oligopol zuteil, der typischen Marktform der modernen industriellen Welt. Ferner enthält das Buch Abschnitte zur Allgemeinen Gleichgewichtstheorie und zur Wohlfahrtstheorie. / This book includes the presentation of traditional and modern microeconomic theory; it contains models of the basic economic units: consumers, producers and markets. Particular attention will be given the oligopoly, the typical form of the modern industrial world market. Furthermore, the book contains sections on general equilibrium theory and welfare theory.

The purpose of this paper was to review the economic development strategies followed by Taiwan to attempt to identify possible lesson-learned that could be of service to developing countries such as Honduras that are currently striving to achieve economic growth and fight poverty. During this investigation, we reviewed the macroeconomic framework and economic development strategies of Honduras, especially those contained in the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) most recently prepared for Honduras. In the case of Taiwan, we made a brief description of the macroeconomic structure and also a summary of the different strategies implemented from 1950 to the present. We made especial emphasis on the development strategies applied during the early stages of the Taiwanese economic development as they relate more to the current economic situation of Honduras. We found that among the lessons learned from the Taiwanese experience and that could be applied to the effort of Honduras to improve its economic development status are the promotion of agriculture and land reform, investment in human capital especially in terms of education, and the principle of comparative advantage in terms of trade. Honduras is currently at a turning point with the implementation of the United States-Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), the Highly Indebted Poor Initiate (HIPC), the Interamerican Development Bank debt relief negotiation, and other financial strategies. The country could use the current opportunities to guide its economic strategy toward the reduction of poverty and economic improvement. / The purpose of this paper was to review the economic development strategies followed by Taiwan to attempt to identify possible lesson-learned that could be of service to developing countries such as Honduras that are currently striving to achieve economic growth and fight poverty. During this investigation, we reviewed the macroeconomic framework and economic development strategies of Honduras, especially those contained in the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) most recently prepared for Honduras. In the case of Taiwan, we made a brief description of the macroeconomic structure and also a summary of the different strategies implemented from 1950 to the present. We made especial emphasis on the development strategies applied during the early stages of the Taiwanese economic development as they relate more to the current economic situation of Honduras. We found that among the lessons learned from the Taiwanese experience and that could be applied to the effort of Honduras to improve its economic development status are the promotion of agriculture and land reform, investment in human capital especially in terms of education, and the principle of comparative advantage in terms of trade. Honduras is currently at a turning point with the implementation of the United States-Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), the Highly Indebted Poor Initiate (HIPC), the Interamerican Development Bank debt relief negotiation, and other financial strategies. The country could use the current opportunities to guide its economic strategy toward the reduction of poverty and economic improvement.

Santraukos turinys: magistro baigiamajame darbe analizuojami legalios ir nelegalios migracijos mastai Lietuvoje, pateikiama emigrantų demografinė struktūra, emigracijos raida po nepriklausomybės atkūrimo bei įstojimo į ES. Nagrinėjami emigracijos makroekonominio ir mikroekonominio lygio veiksniai bei jų įtaka ekonominiams, socialiniams bei demografiniams procesams Lietuvoje. Darbe įvertinta reemigracijos situacija Lietuvoje bei aptartos šalies institucijų įgyvendinamos emigrantų grįžimą skatinančios priemonės. SANTRAUKA. Magistro baigiamajame darbe buvo naudojamasi moksline literatūra, atliktų tyrimų rezultatais, oficialiais pranešimais, publikacijomis bei analitiniais straipsniais, kuriuose apibūdinami gyventojų migracijos procesai, jų pasireiškimo formos, pateikti emigracijos iš Lietuvos mastai iki nepriklausomybės atkūrimo 1990 m. bei po įstojimo į ES. Įvardinti veiksniai, įtakojantys migracijos mobilumą bei nustatytos emigracijos iš Lietuvos pasekmės šaliai. Darbe nagrinėjamos emigracijos iš Lietuvos priežastys bei pasekmės vadovaujantis Lietuvos statistikos departamento duomenimis, Lietuvos darbo biržos metinėmis veiklos ataskaitomis, Lietuvos valstybės ilgalaikės strategijos duomenimis, faktorinės analizės metodais. Mokslinės literatūros analizė leidžia teigti, kad emigracijos priežasčių nustatymas, paprastai yra viena sudėtingiausių visų migracijų problemų todėl, kad dažnai priežastys supainiojamos su tikslu, kurio siekiama naujojoje šalyje. Migracijos priežasčių... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Resume: Master’s Thesis provide analysis of the scale of legal and illegal migration in Lithuania, presents the demographic structure of the emigrants, and the development of emigration in Lithuania after regaining the Independence and joining the EU. It also investigates macro- and microeconomic factors and the influence they make on economic, social, and demographic processes in Lithuania. This work also estimates reemigration situation in Lithuania, as well as discusses state-initialised measures for encouraging emigrants return to their homeland. SUMMARY These Master’s Thesis were completed using scientific literature, research results, oficial statements, publications, and analytical articles on migration processes and forms of their manifestation that discusses the scale of emigration from Lithuania after regaining the Independence in 1990, and after joining the EU. It also names factors that influence the mobility of migration, as well as defines the consequences of emigration from Lithuania for the state. Causes of Lithuanian emigration and their consequences are analysed with the reference to the data provided by Department of Statistics to the government of the Republic of Lithuania, the Lithuanian Labour Exchange annual reports, the information on long-term strategy of the State of Lithuania, and the method of factorial analysis. Scientific literature analysis allows maintaining that the definition of the causes for emigration is usually one of the most... [to full text]