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<p>This paper aims to tell out a “what next” question of the future scenarios that the European Union (EU), as a security community, is most likely to face in its development as a world power up to the year 2020. The EU is a rapidly evolving concept consolidating with comprehensive internal and external dimension and implication. Key concepts such as power, security, global governance and international order have been used as the underlying themes that will determine the course of the future. In this context Neo-realism, Constructivism and Security Community’s model have been used as the theoretical framework to examine how EU’s role in the international system can be analyzed in the conceptual framework of security. This is followed by a discussion on the concurrent ESDP instruments initiated by the new Constitution as a key momentum of security community buildup internally. To broaden understanding and to get a variety of perspectives, research reports and policy papers of some transatlantic think tanks were analyzed. While multi- perspectives of some prominent think tanks were reviewed, analyzed and discussed, the opinions of policy makers at the United Nations Head Quarters, New York, were also explored to reflect on how EU’s role in international affairs is being perceived in the corridors of power, both concurrently and futuristically. These views were consequently augmented by attending General Assembly and Security Council sessions during September 2004 to January 2005 to observe what sorts of power and influence EU exerts in the contemporary international system and what potential it has for the future. Based on these findings, the paper identified three scenarios that EU is most likely to face in its efforts to be an international power. The paper concluded with the understanding that EU has vision and potential to be a power in the international system futuristically, which can be further enhanced if EU enhances its military capabilities and improves its power perception in the eyes of various stakeholders. However since the international system is volatile, its future role cannot be predicted with accuracy, only alternative options can be identified. EU’s roles are dependent upon the degree of success of the integration process internally and the structural interaction with other major actors in the international system. Whereas EU may enhance its role up to the year 2020, it may not enter into a power conflict with other major powers. However it will play its role comparable with the magnitude of its size, power and influence to manage the international system, futuristically in an improvised way.</p>

This paper aims to tell out a “what next” question of the future scenarios that the European Union (EU), as a security community, is most likely to face in its development as a world power up to the year 2020. The EU is a rapidly evolving concept consolidating with comprehensive internal and external dimension and implication. Key concepts such as power, security, global governance and international order have been used as the underlying themes that will determine the course of the future. In this context Neo-realism, Constructivism and Security Community’s model have been used as the theoretical framework to examine how EU’s role in the international system can be analyzed in the conceptual framework of security. This is followed by a discussion on the concurrent ESDP instruments initiated by the new Constitution as a key momentum of security community buildup internally. To broaden understanding and to get a variety of perspectives, research reports and policy papers of some transatlantic think tanks were analyzed. While multi- perspectives of some prominent think tanks were reviewed, analyzed and discussed, the opinions of policy makers at the United Nations Head Quarters, New York, were also explored to reflect on how EU’s role in international affairs is being perceived in the corridors of power, both concurrently and futuristically. These views were consequently augmented by attending General Assembly and Security Council sessions during September 2004 to January 2005 to observe what sorts of power and influence EU exerts in the contemporary international system and what potential it has for the future. Based on these findings, the paper identified three scenarios that EU is most likely to face in its efforts to be an international power. The paper concluded with the understanding that EU has vision and potential to be a power in the international system futuristically, which can be further enhanced if EU enhances its military capabilities and improves its power perception in the eyes of various stakeholders. However since the international system is volatile, its future role cannot be predicted with accuracy, only alternative options can be identified. EU’s roles are dependent upon the degree of success of the integration process internally and the structural interaction with other major actors in the international system. Whereas EU may enhance its role up to the year 2020, it may not enter into a power conflict with other major powers. However it will play its role comparable with the magnitude of its size, power and influence to manage the international system, futuristically in an improvised way.

Esta dissertação discute a proposição de políticas geradas por organismos multilaterais e que precisam ser institucionalizadas no âmbito do Estado nacional. Parte-se do fato de que a proposição de políticas é resultante de um processo de disputa entre atores sociais, políticos e econômicos. Nas últimas décadas, a globalização tem modificado a forma de atuação dos Estados nacionais e, conseqüentemente, a elaboração e a implementação de políticas de regulação. Verifica-se que, neste contexto, há uma emergência de organizações internacionais que têm exercido uma influência cada vez maior sobre as relações interestatais e o desenvolvimento do comércio internacional. O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar e analisar os impactos da emergência de instituições e propostas de regulação global sobre as relações estabelecidas entre os atores que atuam no nível nacional/local. Para isso, aborda-se a questão do tabaco enquanto política pública constituída por um fórum internacional, presidido pela Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) e que para ser institucionalizada no Brasil precisa passar por um processo de ratificação no âmbito nacional. Verificou-se que, com a proposição de políticas de regulação internacionais, as relações entre os níveis global – local tornam-se mais complexas, devido à emergência de novos atores, esferas e arenas de âmbito global, que passam a tomar decisões que influenciam o nível nacional. Além disso, a emergência desta política a nível nacional provocou algumas mudanças na dinâmica de regulação, até mesmo pela introdução do debate em torno de um tema que provavelmente, sem o apoio da OMS, não seria objeto de uma política de regulação. Esta proposta de regulação permitiu também que novas arenas de discussão e de deliberação fossem constituídas e o fortalecimento de perspectivas ligadas à área da saúde, que antes eram subjugadas pela perspectiva econômica de grupos ligados ao tabaco. Desta forma, a emergência da proposta de regulação a nível nacional acarretou uma mudança na correlação de forças entre os atores nacionais, gerando novas relações entre os atores envolvidos e fazendo com que atores tradicionalmente antagônicos (agricultores e indústrias) se aliassem na defesa da cultura do fumo. / This dissertation discusses the proposition of policies that were generated by multilateral organisms and which need to be institutionalized within the National State. Its key point of departure is that the proposition of policies is resultant from a disputing process among social, political and economical actors. In the last decades, globalization has modified the way National States play roles and, consequently, the elaboration and implementation of regulation policies. It has been verified that within this context, there is an emergence of international organizations that have exercised a major influence over the relationships between national states and the development of the international commerce. The goal of this work is to identify and analyze impacts coming from the emergence of these institutions and proposes of global regulation over relations that were established between actors that act at the national/local level. For this, the study deals with the tobacco issue as a public policy that was constituted by an international forum, presided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and that for being institutionalized in Brazil needs to go through a ratification process within the national sphere. It has been demonstrated that with the proposition of international regulation policy, the relationships among the global – local levels become more complexes, because of the emergence of new actors, spheres and arenas of global field, that come to take decisions for influencing the national level. Besides, the emergence of this policy at the national level provoked some changes in the regulation’s dynamic, even because of the introduction of a debate on a subject, which perhaps would not be object for regulation policy without the support of the WHO. This proposition of regulation allowed, as well, that new arenas for discussion and deliberation could be constructed and the strength of perspectives related to health issues, that earlier were subjugated by the economic perspective coming from groups linked to tobacco. In this way, the emergence of this proposition of regulation at national level has as effects a change in the correlation of forces among national actors, generating new relations between the involved actors and making those actors who are traditionally antagonist (farmers and industries) to join together for defending the tobacco cultivation.

Esta dissertação discute a proposição de políticas geradas por organismos multilaterais e que precisam ser institucionalizadas no âmbito do Estado nacional. Parte-se do fato de que a proposição de políticas é resultante de um processo de disputa entre atores sociais, políticos e econômicos. Nas últimas décadas, a globalização tem modificado a forma de atuação dos Estados nacionais e, conseqüentemente, a elaboração e a implementação de políticas de regulação. Verifica-se que, neste contexto, há uma emergência de organizações internacionais que têm exercido uma influência cada vez maior sobre as relações interestatais e o desenvolvimento do comércio internacional. O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar e analisar os impactos da emergência de instituições e propostas de regulação global sobre as relações estabelecidas entre os atores que atuam no nível nacional/local. Para isso, aborda-se a questão do tabaco enquanto política pública constituída por um fórum internacional, presidido pela Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) e que para ser institucionalizada no Brasil precisa passar por um processo de ratificação no âmbito nacional. Verificou-se que, com a proposição de políticas de regulação internacionais, as relações entre os níveis global – local tornam-se mais complexas, devido à emergência de novos atores, esferas e arenas de âmbito global, que passam a tomar decisões que influenciam o nível nacional. Além disso, a emergência desta política a nível nacional provocou algumas mudanças na dinâmica de regulação, até mesmo pela introdução do debate em torno de um tema que provavelmente, sem o apoio da OMS, não seria objeto de uma política de regulação. Esta proposta de regulação permitiu também que novas arenas de discussão e de deliberação fossem constituídas e o fortalecimento de perspectivas ligadas à área da saúde, que antes eram subjugadas pela perspectiva econômica de grupos ligados ao tabaco. Desta forma, a emergência da proposta de regulação a nível nacional acarretou uma mudança na correlação de forças entre os atores nacionais, gerando novas relações entre os atores envolvidos e fazendo com que atores tradicionalmente antagônicos (agricultores e indústrias) se aliassem na defesa da cultura do fumo. / This dissertation discusses the proposition of policies that were generated by multilateral organisms and which need to be institutionalized within the National State. Its key point of departure is that the proposition of policies is resultant from a disputing process among social, political and economical actors. In the last decades, globalization has modified the way National States play roles and, consequently, the elaboration and implementation of regulation policies. It has been verified that within this context, there is an emergence of international organizations that have exercised a major influence over the relationships between national states and the development of the international commerce. The goal of this work is to identify and analyze impacts coming from the emergence of these institutions and proposes of global regulation over relations that were established between actors that act at the national/local level. For this, the study deals with the tobacco issue as a public policy that was constituted by an international forum, presided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and that for being institutionalized in Brazil needs to go through a ratification process within the national sphere. It has been demonstrated that with the proposition of international regulation policy, the relationships among the global – local levels become more complexes, because of the emergence of new actors, spheres and arenas of global field, that come to take decisions for influencing the national level. Besides, the emergence of this policy at the national level provoked some changes in the regulation’s dynamic, even because of the introduction of a debate on a subject, which perhaps would not be object for regulation policy without the support of the WHO. This proposition of regulation allowed, as well, that new arenas for discussion and deliberation could be constructed and the strength of perspectives related to health issues, that earlier were subjugated by the economic perspective coming from groups linked to tobacco. In this way, the emergence of this proposition of regulation at national level has as effects a change in the correlation of forces among national actors, generating new relations between the involved actors and making those actors who are traditionally antagonist (farmers and industries) to join together for defending the tobacco cultivation.

Esta dissertação discute a proposição de políticas geradas por organismos multilaterais e que precisam ser institucionalizadas no âmbito do Estado nacional. Parte-se do fato de que a proposição de políticas é resultante de um processo de disputa entre atores sociais, políticos e econômicos. Nas últimas décadas, a globalização tem modificado a forma de atuação dos Estados nacionais e, conseqüentemente, a elaboração e a implementação de políticas de regulação. Verifica-se que, neste contexto, há uma emergência de organizações internacionais que têm exercido uma influência cada vez maior sobre as relações interestatais e o desenvolvimento do comércio internacional. O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar e analisar os impactos da emergência de instituições e propostas de regulação global sobre as relações estabelecidas entre os atores que atuam no nível nacional/local. Para isso, aborda-se a questão do tabaco enquanto política pública constituída por um fórum internacional, presidido pela Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) e que para ser institucionalizada no Brasil precisa passar por um processo de ratificação no âmbito nacional. Verificou-se que, com a proposição de políticas de regulação internacionais, as relações entre os níveis global – local tornam-se mais complexas, devido à emergência de novos atores, esferas e arenas de âmbito global, que passam a tomar decisões que influenciam o nível nacional. Além disso, a emergência desta política a nível nacional provocou algumas mudanças na dinâmica de regulação, até mesmo pela introdução do debate em torno de um tema que provavelmente, sem o apoio da OMS, não seria objeto de uma política de regulação. Esta proposta de regulação permitiu também que novas arenas de discussão e de deliberação fossem constituídas e o fortalecimento de perspectivas ligadas à área da saúde, que antes eram subjugadas pela perspectiva econômica de grupos ligados ao tabaco. Desta forma, a emergência da proposta de regulação a nível nacional acarretou uma mudança na correlação de forças entre os atores nacionais, gerando novas relações entre os atores envolvidos e fazendo com que atores tradicionalmente antagônicos (agricultores e indústrias) se aliassem na defesa da cultura do fumo. / This dissertation discusses the proposition of policies that were generated by multilateral organisms and which need to be institutionalized within the National State. Its key point of departure is that the proposition of policies is resultant from a disputing process among social, political and economical actors. In the last decades, globalization has modified the way National States play roles and, consequently, the elaboration and implementation of regulation policies. It has been verified that within this context, there is an emergence of international organizations that have exercised a major influence over the relationships between national states and the development of the international commerce. The goal of this work is to identify and analyze impacts coming from the emergence of these institutions and proposes of global regulation over relations that were established between actors that act at the national/local level. For this, the study deals with the tobacco issue as a public policy that was constituted by an international forum, presided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and that for being institutionalized in Brazil needs to go through a ratification process within the national sphere. It has been demonstrated that with the proposition of international regulation policy, the relationships among the global – local levels become more complexes, because of the emergence of new actors, spheres and arenas of global field, that come to take decisions for influencing the national level. Besides, the emergence of this policy at the national level provoked some changes in the regulation’s dynamic, even because of the introduction of a debate on a subject, which perhaps would not be object for regulation policy without the support of the WHO. This proposition of regulation allowed, as well, that new arenas for discussion and deliberation could be constructed and the strength of perspectives related to health issues, that earlier were subjugated by the economic perspective coming from groups linked to tobacco. In this way, the emergence of this proposition of regulation at national level has as effects a change in the correlation of forces among national actors, generating new relations between the involved actors and making those actors who are traditionally antagonist (farmers and industries) to join together for defending the tobacco cultivation.

La tesi si incentra sulle questioni legate alla distribuzione degli aiuti multilaterali allo sviluppo; in particolare due temi sono affrontati: la selettività degli aiuti e la qualità della governance. L’elaborato si basa sulla letteratura concernente l’efficacia e la distribuzione degli aiuti ed unisce quest’ultima alla letteratura sulla political economy delle organizzazioni internazionali e sulla good governance. Attraverso un’analisi econometrica si intende capire se le organizzazioni multilaterali hanno a cuore la qualità della governance del paese ricevente al momento dell’allocazione degli aiuti. Con un modello GMM-Diff che adopera sia strumenti interni che esterni, si evidenzia come l’interesse per la governance da parte delle istituzioni multilaterali non sia solo retorica, come invece appare da uno studio preliminare. Inoltre, attraverso l’analisi di un panel a tre dimensioni, la tesi monitora l’applicazione della selettività degli aiuti. Viene rigettata l’ipotesi di un aumento della selettività e si evidenziano margini per un miglioramento dell’efficacia allocativa degli aiuti. Le agenzie multilaterali devono cercare di distribuire gli aiuti con criteri diversi da quelli di natura geopolitica. / The thesis examines the allocation of multilateral aid flows with respect to two current issues of the development agenda: the selectivity of aid and the quality of governance. The dissertation brings together three strands of the relevant literature: firstly, the reference literature relating to aid effectiveness and aid allocation, which is then followed by the literature on good governance and, lastly, on the political economy of international organizations. We carry out an econometric study to understand whether international organizations care about the recipients’ performance on governance. With a GMM-Diff methodology using both internal and external instruments we show that the focus on governance by multilateral bodies is not only rhetoric, as it appears at first glance. Moreover, we explore how the selectivity of multilateral aid varies over time by employing a three-dimensional panel. Our analysis rejects the hypothesis of increasing selectivity and confirms that there is room to improve on the allocation of aid. Multilateral institutions need to strengthen their efforts to allocate aid on criteria other than political-strategic ones.