This paper considers empirically whether preference-based (empirical) power indices differ significantly from their preference-free (theoretical) counterparts. Drawing on the to date most comprehensive sample of EU Council votes (1993-2011), we use item-response models to estimate the EU27 member states' preferences (ideal points) in a one-dimensional policy space. Their posterior distributions are then used for the calculation of empirical versions of the Banzhaf, the Shapley-Shubik, and other power indices, invoking the concepts of connected coalitions and bloc voting. Our ideal point estimates point to significant differences in member states' preferences, which often translate into significant differences of empirical (versus theoretical) power under individual voting. However, the formation of voting blocs appears to offset differences in countries' ideal points as the bloc size grows. Interestingly, this result does not hold up for the Shapley-Shubik index, whose empirical variant differs from the theoretical one both under individual and bloc voting. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

The purpose of this study is to understand the impact of candidate gender on voting behavior in presidential elections in the United States. By delving into the vice presidential nominations of Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, and Sarah Palin in 2008, I provided the baseline for the experiences of Carly Fiorina and Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaigns in 2016. Ultimately, I present the argument that the United States is ready for a female president, either this year or in the near future.

No description available.

This study examines individual roll call votes on energy issues taken in Congress during the years 1973 to 1983. Logit analysis is used to compare the influence of partisan identification; personal ideology, as measured by support and opposition to the conservative coalition; and district or state energy characteristics, including energy consumption and production. The potential for misleading results due to the multicollinearity of party and ideology is eliminated through the use of a residual variable representing the non-party component of ideology. The results indicate that members of Congress demonstrated considerable variability in voting on energy matters. The House of Representatives was more responsive to variations in energy constituencies. Both the House and the Senate showed a different response when the substantive character of energy issues varied. Questions with an economic impact were more influenced by partisanship, while environmentally related issues were more strongly influenced by ideology. The gross impact of changes in public opinion and changes in the presidency are noticeable throughout, but most especially after the election of Ronald Reagan, when many of the policy changes made previously were dismantled. The results of this study support the basic proposition that individual roll call votes are a product of constituency influence. The results also indicate that the political partisanship and ideology of members are representative of a member's supportive and reelection constituency. The statistical methods used allowed a direct comparison of the influence of party, ideology, and variables representing the characteristics of member's districts. The results obtained substantiate the importance of constituent influence in congressional voting.

In the modern political environment in the United States, voting is the most common form of political participation. Many individuals consider voting to be a simple process, but it is a form of political participation that requires various costs from both the individuals casting their ballot and the authority systems organizing and managing elections. In recent years new voting programs have been established to lower costs, increase voter turnout, and add flexibility to the voting process through the use of modern technology. The following research examines the new Vote Center Model of running elections being implemented in Wayne, Tippecanoe, and Cass Counties in Indiana. Elections held in 2007 and 2008 will be studied, attempting to determine the effect of the Vote Center Model on running elections when compared to the traditional Precinct Model. / Department of Political Science

This dissertation aims to investigate the bases of partisan differentiation and degree of polarization since Taiwan's 2000 presidential election. By employing American concepts and theories of partisan polarization, I analyze Taiwan's party politics at both the elite and mass levels. At the elite level, I examine whether inter‐party antagonism has become more intense in Taiwan's legislature and what types of issues contribute most to party conflict since 2000. At the mass level, I examine public perceptions of the parties, analyze whether any political issues divide the Taiwanese public along partisan lines, and explore the social and demographic bases of partisan divisions. The findings suggest that political elites became polarized along partisan lines after 2000, as observed in roll‐call voting behavior in the Legislative Yuan. This resulted from the formation of a divided government and the confrontation of two party coalitions after the 2000 presidential election. Furthermore, this polarization is mainly due to the opposite positions of the two party coalitions on the issue of the relationship with China. The pan‐blue party coalition favors reunification and closer interaction with China, whereas its counterpart, the pan‐green party coalition, favors Taiwanese independence and limited interaction with China. The issues of social reform vs. stability, social welfare vs. lower taxes, and environmental protection vs. economic development are less polarizing and less consistently divisive than the issue of Taiwan's relations with China. Partisan polarization is less evident among ordinary citizens than among political elites. The only issue dividing Taiwanese significantly is the China relationship issue (independence or unification with China). In addition, demographic factors may lead to partisan division among citizens. Nevertheless, this polarization is more moderate than that of political elites because the number of partisan independents is high and has not decreased significantly. In short, partisan polarization in Taiwan is not as intense as some political scientists claim. Taiwan's partisan polarization at the mass level is closer to the concept of "sorting", referring to the process of people gradually affiliating with the party that best reflects their policy preferences, even if those preferences are more moderate than extreme.

No description available.

Neste artigo utiliza-se a reforma constitucional brasileira de 1988 para investigar o impacto da extensão do direito de voto sobre a composição dos gastos públicos. Posterior ao processo de democratização a nova constituição estendeu o direito de voto aos analfabetos, o que representa uma mudança exógena na composição do eleitorado proporcionando uma clara estratégia de identificação. Uma vez que as taxas de analfabetismo variam consideravelmente entre os municípios, pode-se testar se políticas de gastos públicos favoráveis aos mais pobres sofreram elevações mais acentuadas nos municípios com maiores taxas iniciais de analfabetismo. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que o gasto com transferências se elevou mais acentuadamente naqueles municípios que exibiram maior percentual de eleitores analfabetos. Tudo o mais constante, uma mudança de um desvio padrão na taxa de analfabetismo está associada a uma elevação de 1,5 pontos percentuais na razão transferências/gasto total. / In the first paper, we explore Brazils 1988 Constitutional reform to investigate how a major change in the franchise affected the pattern and level of public spending. After redemocratization, the new Constitution extended the franchise to illiterate citizens previously not allowed to cast their votes. This exogenous change in the composition of the electorate is the base of our identification strategy. Since illiteracy rates varied substantially across municipalities, we are able to test whether pro-poor public expenditures increased more in municipalities with higher initial illiteracy rates. We do find that transfers rose more sharply in municipalities harboring more illiterate voters. The second paper studies the relationship between democracy and growth in a crosscountry analysis using data for years 1950-2005. Using econometric duration models to evaluate the impact of modernization hypothesis we find evidence supporting the exogenous modernization theory, in the sense that democracy has more duration in a richest and more educated country. But the duration of dictatorship isnt reduced by economic growth or rise of educational attainment. The last paper surveys the literature about the empirical comparison between directional and proximity models. We discuss the data collected process, estimation strategy and results, focusing in the post 1999 works. Theres no indication of superiority for neither of the theories, suggesting that the field is still active.

The long line of representation studies posits that proportional representation systems, with larger electoral districts, have a representational advantage over majoritarian systems. However, over the last decade, scholars have challenged this longstanding nding (Blais & Bodet 2006, Golder & Stramski 2007). Additionally, Golder & Stramski (2007) initiated a debate over the conceptualization and measurement of congruence, arguing that the most common practice of assessing congruence is flawed. They call for an improved measure of congruence. In the light of this recent debates, the purpose of this thesis is to inspect the relationship between institutional designs and political representation in the European context, using Voting Advice Application generated data. Three main research questions are explored. The first question relates to institutional designs such as district magnitude, and electoral system characteristics such as disproportionality or polarization, investigating the conditions necessary for a country to present high levels of congruence between its citizens and their representatives. Looking at party level characteristics, I will investigate what are the effects of niche party status and governmental status on issue congruence in European democracies? Last but not least, what is the role of individual characteristics? These questions will be addressed by studying the impact of different features of electoral systems, party and individual characteristics have on political representation conceptualized as issue congruence. Congruence is measured as the degree of matching of the common policy preferences of citizens and parties as indicated by the Voting Advice Applications EU Pro filer 2009 and EUvox 2014. The present work contributes to the stream of research on political representation understood as congruence. The strength of this work lays in its comparative approach, and the use of VAA generated data to measure congruence. While most of the studies on political representation using congruence focus on the Left-Right dimension, this thesis uses the concept of issue congruence. Based on the 28 common statements of the VAA tool, the measure of congruence is metric-free, allowing for cross-country comparisons. Although there is a wide range of research on the effects of electoral systems on political representation, most of these studies are limited in their use of comparative approaches. The lack of extensive comparative research on issue congruence is due to insufficient data. The 2009 EU Profi ler and 2014 EUvox address this issue, providing the necessary framework for testing the predictors of congruence at a system, party and individual level. Political representation can be operationalized through congruence, as the distance between the citizen and the representative (Huber & Powell 1994, Powell 2004). Issue congruence is the correspondence between party electorates and their representatives across a set of salient policy dimensions (Powell 2004). VAA generated data provides a new means of measuring congruence. I propose two new measures of congruence, based on the distance between the citizen and the party the citizen intends to vote for. Unlike other comparative studies that measure congruence with the help of the Left-Right scale, the present work focuses on issue policies. Issue congruence is the outcome of the match between the citizen and the party she intends to vote for on a series of 28 and 22 political statements. Additionally, the focus on issue congruence is important because issue representation is mostly inferred from the alternative interpretations of congruence. The measures of issue congruence therefore contribute to a better understanding of political representation in the EU political space, tackling the recurrent crisis of representation.

This dissertation seeks to understand how democratic elections can coexist with a significant number of politicians implicated in criminal wrongdoing. Specifically, it seeks answers to three questions. Why do parties nominate candidates with criminal backgrounds? Why do voters vote for them? And what does their proliferation mean for democratic accountability? To address these questions, I draw on a wide body of quantitative and qualitative evidence from India, the world's largest democracy. I argue that parties are attracted to criminal politicians because they have access to financial resources that allow them to function as self-financing candidates. Whereas the prevailing consensus in political economy suggests that voters support "bad politicians" because they lack adequate information on candidate quality, I develop an alternate theory that suggests well-informed voters can display rational behavior by voting for such candidates. Specifically, in contexts where social divisions are highly salient, voters often desire a representative who they perceive can protect group-based interests most credibly. In such settings, criminality can serve as a useful signal of a candidate's credibility. As a result, parties selectively field criminal candidates in those areas where social divisions are most pronounced. The implications of this study are far reaching because they suggest that information about a candidate's criminality is not only available, but actually is central to understanding the viability of his candidacy. Thus, there are circumstances in which "bad politicians" can in fact be compatible with democratic accountability. Empirically, this dissertation makes use of a unique, author-constructed database of affidavits submitted by more than 60,000 candidates contesting state and national elections between 2003 and 2009. This dataset contains detailed information on candidates' financial and criminal records from 37 elections, which I analyze using state-of-the-art quantitative methods. I complement these quantitative analyses with qualitative fieldwork conducted in three states, including an in-depth exploration of the case of Bihar, a state in north India.