Yersinia pestis, agent causal de la peste, persiste dans la nature maintenu par un cycle enzootique dans des foyers conduisant à la réémergence de la maladie. En Afrique du Nord, où une réémergence a eu lieu après des années de ‘silence’, nous avons répertorié les différents épisodes ainsi que le nombre de cas en sur six pays à compter de 1940 en mettant en évidence l’importation de la maladie et un mode de contamination négligé, la transmission par voie orale. Une étude en Algérie sur 237 micromammifères confirme deux foyers et en revèle trois nouveaux porteurs d’un nouveau génotype (MST) de biotype Orientalis. Apodemus sylvaticus est par la même ajouté à la liste des rongeurs pestiférés. La projection des foyers de peste ainsi actualisés sur une carte géographique et écologique met en évidence la proximité des foyers de peste aux points d’eau saumâtre. Une étude statistique a confirmé une corrélation significative entre foyer de peste/eau salée à une proximité minimale <3 km en comparaison à des zones d’eau douce. Des échantillons environnementaux salés ont permis l’isolement d’une souche Y. pestis Algeria 3. Cette découverte confortée par l’observation expérimentale de la résistance de Y. pestis à un milieu hyper salé à 150g/L NaCl se traduisant par un protéome spécifique en réponse à ce stress avec une forme d’adaptation de type forme L de la bactérie dans ce type d’environnement. Notre travail éclaire de façon originale un facteur méconnu de persistance tellurique de Y. pestis, conditionnant la réémergence de la peste dans des foyers séculaires au Maghreb contrairement aux rivages Nord de la Méditerranée où la peste autochtone a disparu depuis un siècle. / Yersinia pestis, the causal agent of plague, persists in nature maintained by an enzootic cycle in foci leading to the re-emergence of the disease. In North Africa, where re-emergence took place after years of 'silence', we have listed the various episodes and the number of cases in six countries from 1940 onwards, highlighting the importation of the disease and A method of neglected contamination, oral transmission. A study in Algeria on 237 micromammals confirms two foci and reveals three new carriers of a new genotype (MST) of orientalis biotype. Apodemus sylvaticus is by the same added to the list of plague rodents. The projection of the plague foci thus updated on a geographical and ecological map highlights the proximity of plague foci to brackish water points. A statistical study confirmed a significant correlation between plague / salt water at a minimal proximity <3 km compared to freshwater areas. Saline environmental samples allowed the isolation of a Y. pestis Algeria 3 strain. This discovery was confirmed by the experimental observation of the resistance of Y. pestis to a hyper-saline medium at 150 g / L NaCl resulting in a specific proteome In response to this stress with an adaptation form of form L of the bacterium in this type of environment. Our work illuminates in an original way an unknown factor of telluric persistence of Y. pestis, conditioning the re-emergence of the plague in secular centers in the Maghreb unlike the northern shores of the Mediterranean where the indigenous plague has disappeared for a century.

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Dust-climate interaction over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has long been studied, as it is the "dustiest" region on earth. However, the quantitative and qualitative understanding of the role of dust direct radiative effect on MENA climate is still rudimentary. The present dissertation investigates dust direct radiative effect on MENA climate during summer with a special emphasis on the sensitivity of climate response to dust shortwave absorption, which is one of the most uncertain components of dust direct radiative effect. Simulations are conducted with and without dust radiative effect, to differentiate the effect of dust on climate. To elucidate the sensitivity of climate response to dust shortwave absorption, simulations with dust assume three different cases of dust shortwave absorption, representing dust as a very efficient, standard and inefficient shortwave absorber. The non-uniformly distributed dust perturb circulations at various scales. Therefore, the present study takes advantage of the high spatial resolution capabilities of an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), which incorporates global and regional circulations. AMIP-style global high-resolution simulations are conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km. A significant response in the strength and position of the local Hadley circulation is predicted in response to meridionally asymmetric distribution of dust and the corresponding radiative effects. Significant responses are also found in regional circulation features such as African Easterly Jet and West African Monsoon circulation. Consistent with these dynamic responses at various scales, the tropical rainbelt across MENA strengthens and shifts northward. Similarly, the temperature under rainbelt cools and that over subtropical deserts warms. Inter-comparison of various dust shortwave absorption cases shows that the response of the MENA tropical rainbelt is extremely sensitive to the strength of shortwave absorption. Further analyses reveal that the sensitivity of the rainbelt stems from the sensitivity of the multi-scale circulations that define the rainbelt. Importantly, the summer precipitation over the semi-arid strip south of Sahara, including Sahel, increases in response to dust radiative effect. The maximum response and sensitivity are predicted over this region. The sensitivity of the responses over Sahel, especially that of precipitation, is comparable to the mean state. Locally, the precipitation increase reaches up to 50% of the mean, while dust is assumed to be a very efficient absorber. As the region is characterized by the "Sahel drought", the predicted precipitation sensitivity to the dust loading over this region has a wide-range of socioeconomic implications. The present study, therefore, suggests the importance of reducing uncertainty in dust shortwave absorption for a better simulation and interpretation of the MENA climate in general, and of Sahel in particular.

Cette thèse exploite une nouvelle source de données longitudinales sur les niveaux et les conditions de vie des ménages marocains en vue d’éclaircir les liens existants entre santé, protection sociale, et pauvreté, dans le cas du Maroc. Dans un premier temps, nous évaluons l’impact d’un programme national de gratuité des soins sur le recours aux soins et le poids financier des dépenses liées à la santé. En deuxième lieu, nous examinons comment les chocs de santé se répercutent sur la répartition de l’offre de santé au sein du ménage. Enfin, nous analysons les déterminants du sentiment de pauvreté au sein de la population marocaine, avec une attention particulière portée aux effets de comparaison. Les principaux résultats de ce travail sont que le programme de gratuité des soins a eu un impact positif de taille modérée sur l’accès aux soins en milieu rural, mais pas d’effet décelable en milieu urbain, ni sur les dépenses de santé. Nous montrons que les ménages marocains utilisent une gamme variée de mécanismes informels pour se protéger contre le risque financier lié à la santé ; en particulier, l’offre de travail féminine en milieu urbain réagit positivement à la maladie du chef de ménage. Enfin, nous trouvons que le sentiment de pauvreté est lié au niveau de vie moyen du groupe de référence du ménage, mais que cet effet varie en fonction de l’échelle géographique de ce groupe : le revenu moyen des voisins proches est lié négativement au sentiment de propre pauvreté, tandis que celui de la province de résidence est lié positivement à la pauvreté subjective. / This dissertation exploits a new nationally representative panel survey of household conditions in order to investigate different aspects of the health-social protection-poverty nexus in present-day Morocco. First, we assess the impact of a policy of `free health care' on access to public hospitals and health-related expenditures. Second, we investigate how shocks related to ill health are related to various coping mechanisms, in particular to the reallocation of labor within the household. Third, we analyze the determinants of the feeling of being poor in the Moroccan population, with a focus on comparison effects. We find that the free health care policy had a moderate, but positive, impact on access to health care among rural households, but a limited impact on health expenditures and no impact on consultation rates for urban household. Moroccan families use a variety of coping mechanisms to cover themselves against the financial shocks linked to illness; in particular, we show that in urban areas, female labor supply reacts positively to illness of the household head, which suggests that low female labor force participation is driven by supply-side reasons. Finally, we find that the feelings of being poor is influenced by the income of various comparison groups, albeit in different directions according to the geographical scale: the income of the comparison group at the neighborhood or village level is negatively associated with the feeling of poverty, while the income at the province level is positively correlated with one's own poverty perception.

Although human trafficking continues to be a growing problem around the world, there are scarce quantitative methodologies for evidence-based research because it is hard to gather reliable and comparable data on human trafficking. It is also difficult to track patterns in human trafficking on a regional or global scale because the victims are a vulnerable population. Using Datta and Bales conceptualization of modern slavery as the theoretical foundation, the primary purpose of this study was to establish a baseline measurement of trafficking predictors in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) as well as understand the statistical relationship between measurements of corruption, democracy, state of peace, and terrorism on the prevalence of contemporary slavery in the MENA region. Data were collected from the 2016 Global Terrorism Index, 2016 Democracy Index, 2016 Corruption Perception Index, 2016 Global Slavery Index, and the 2016 Global Peace Index and analyzed using multiple linear regression. The results of the study showed that corruption (p=.017) and state of peace (p=.039) were significant predictors for contemporary slavery in the MENA region. Whereas, terrorism and democracy were not significant predictors. The positive social change implications of this study include recommendations to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) to create a central repository for the archival of human trafficking data. The creation of this archive will promote a more accurate accounting of a vulnerable population such as victims of trafficking, thereby increasing awareness of contemporary slavery among law enforcement, policy makers, and scholars.

The theme of this research paper is political Islam and democratic transition in the MENA. The study is delimited to the Ennahda Movement and the Muslim Brotherhood as two prominent political Islamist movements, focusing specifically on their experiences during the democratic transition period. It employs a comparative analytical framework, drawing on a qualitative analysis of primary and secondary databases, including survey data, statistics tables, documentaries, media sources, and scholarly works. Through a comparative lens and within three theoretical anchors, the study explores the puzzle of contradictory outcomes, with Tunisia experiencing a relatively successful democratic transition while Egypt faced setbacks and a return to authoritarian rule. By examining their ideologies, governance styles, reform approaches, and responses to in-and-external challenges, the study illustrates the key factors resulting in their divergent trajectories.  The study findings indicate that the Ennahda's adoption of a bottom-up reform approach, inclusive leadership philosophy, and flexible governance style; not to mention the ability to tackle in-and-external challenges effectively, contributed to the success of the democratization process in Tunisia. In contrast, the Brotherhood faced serious challenges due to its top-down reform approach, exclusive leadership philosophy, and rigid governance style; let alone the disability to handle in-and-external challenges adequately, led to the failure of the democratization process in Egypt. The study concludes that leadership philosophy, governance ways, reform approaches, and capacity to navigate in-and-external challenges play pivotal roles in shaping the trajectories of Islamist political movements in the course of democratic transitions.

This study analyzed the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya (North Africa) beginning in late 2010. The first part of the study focused on variables that the North African revolutions shared. These variables were "personalistic-style of dictatorship", "sizable percentage of youth in population", and "economic context". These factors were then discussed as major descriptive variables that caused the revolutionary events in North Africa. The second part of the study assessed why each North African revolution resulted in varying levels of violence. Concluding thoughts were made regarding the similarities and differences between the 2009 Iranian Green Revolution, events in other North African Arab-majority states such as Algeria and Morocco, and the on-going Syrian Revolution to the North African Revolutions

In recent years, China has become an increasingly influential actor in Muslim-majority countries the world over. This is despite growing international condemnation of Beijing’s imprisonment of Muslims living in northwestern Xinjiang province, in so-called "vocational training schools" where their religious identities are forcibly assimilated under the guise of counter-extremism. Nevertheless, Muslim-majority countries have remained silent or even supportive of China's treatment of its Muslim minorities. This seemingly contradictory policy position is frequently explained by citing these countries’ dependence on Chinese trade and investment in their economic and infrastructural development, however this argument inadequately assesses other important factors behind these countries’ support for China’s treatment of its Muslim minorities. Beyond the theory of economic necessity and the equally realist consideration of security ties, this research further posits that Muslim-majority states support or defend China’s treatment of Muslims in order to secure Chinese ideological support to defend themselves from reproach against their own domestic policies towards separatist movements and religious extremists. To evaluate these hypotheses, this thesis examines the engagement of some key Muslim-majority states with China by analyzing realpolitik factors like (1) economic relations; and (2) security and military cooperation; as well as more ideological factors, namely whether or not they share a common vulnerability to (3) domestic secessionist movements challenging their authority; or to (4) religious extremism that threatens state security. This research examines the economic and security relations between China and six of the most geopolitically significant Muslim- majority countries (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Indonesia, Pakistan and Turkey), as well the influence of secessionism and religious extremism in each country. It then assesses the analytical validity of these four hypotheses, and concludes that the ideological considerations consisting of common vulnerability to secessionism and/or religious extremism, exhibited the greatest explanatory power for predicting Muslim-majority countries’ level of support for China's treatment of Muslims. Although realpolitik considerations like economic and security cooperation with China can also clearly be seen to influence the position of Muslim-majority countries on this issue, ideological factors like obtaining Chinese support for their suppression of secessionist movements or religious extremism are clearly paramount. In addition to these four variables, this research also briefly acknowledges the explanatory potential of other ideological factors in influencing the support of Muslim-majority countries for China's policies towards its Muslim minorities. These include factors like regime type, the prevalence of anti- American sentiment, as well as the desire to form an alliance with China against Western democracies and the norms and standards they espouse in multilateral organizations. Ultimately, this dissertation demonstrates that China has already achieved widespread political and ideological support among the developing countries of the Global South, including many Muslim-majority countries. If Western democracies wish to exert pressure on China to change its behaviour, they will first need to win back the support of the Global South by offering a suitable alternative source of political, economic and security support, while foregoing neocolonial demands to enact changes to their domestic political systems.

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