房價是台灣重要的公共議題之一，有關房屋價格合理性及其與總體經濟之關聯為本研究所欲探討之主題。國內文獻過去多由房租或所得兩方面分析房價問題，本研究則利用設算租金模型，由購屋者持有成本角度衡量台北市與台灣全區自1993年至2010年之房價狀況。根據本研究計算之結果，台北市在2009年存在房價過高現象，台灣全區則未見此情況。此外，由設算租金指數分解可知，影響購屋者持有成本最重要之兩項因素為利率與購屋者對未來預期，台灣利率自1993年之後皆維持在偏低水準，影響了購屋者購屋意願與房屋價格之成長。為了解不同類型購屋者持有成本與總體經濟市場之關聯，本研究進一步將住宅市場購屋者區分為投資者與自有住宅持有者，根據租金比與總體變數實證結果顯示，投資者關注未來房價預期，而自有住宅持有者則受到利率與貨幣供給額之顯著影響，共同影響兩類購屋者之變數為家戶可支配所得、消費者物價指數與匯率。就本研究之結論，投資者與自有住宅持有者具有差異性，政府提出之不同房價政策可能影響投資者或自有住宅持有者之持有成本及其投資或購屋意願。

The objective of this research is to empirically assess the value and validity of a multi-organization data set in the building of prediction models for several ‘local’ software organizations; that is, smaller organizations that might have a few project records but that are interested in improving their ability to accurately predict software project effort. Evidence to date in the research literature is mixed, due not to problems with the underlying research ideas but with limitations in the analytical processes employed: • the majority of previous studies have used only a single organization as the ‘local’ sample, introducing the potential for bias • the degree to which the conclusions of these studies might apply more generally is unable to be determined because of a lack of transparency in the data analysis processes used. It is the aim of this research to provide a more robust and visible test of the utility of the largest multi-organization data set currently available – that from the ISBSG – in terms of enabling smaller-scale organizations to build relevant and accurate models for project-level effort prediction. Stepwise regression is employed to enable the construction of ‘local’, ‘global’ and ‘refined global’ models of effort that are then validated against actual project data from eight organizations. The results indicate that local data, that is, data collected for a single organization, is almost always more effective as a basis for the construction of a predictive model than data sourced from a global repository. That said, the accuracy of the models produced from the global data set, while worse than that achieved with local data, may be sufficiently accurate in the absence of reliable local data – an issue that could be investigated in future research. The study concludes with recommendations for both software engineering practice – in setting out a more dynamic scenario for the management of software development – and research – in terms of implications for the collection and analysis of software engineering data.

<p>The purpose of this thesis is to examine the role of financial markets and institutions on the economical growth of a developing country. The IRS (interest rate spread) is used as the main tool, to examine Chile and Taiwan regarding their economical growth between 1988 and 2007. The reason Taiwan and Chile have been chosen is due to vast differences in the geographical location, and even divergence in political and economical system of these countries.</p><p>The research method that has been chosen for this thesis is a quantitative method. The economic theory is mainly based on secondary data. The method of data presentation and analysis are manly descriptive even though the layout of the thesis is more of an explanation research. The carculations are made with the statictical computer program SPSS. The results of the study are expressed mathematically and in sets of tables. In order to determinate the correlation between IRS and macroeconomic factors and the correlation between IRS and Economy growth, the magnitude and trend of the IRS is analysed from 1988 to 2007. To test the hypothesis, the OLS regression and panel data model is used.</p><p>The theoretical part is the base of the empirical part. The theoretical part is needed in order to understand and later on analyze the results from research on Chile and Taiwan. Different aspects of economical growth are defined to make it easier to understand and follow the thesis thoroughly. The financial markets and institutions are discussed very shortly. To understand the growth theory, Solow growth model is discussed, which is one of the most important models concerning the economical growth.</p><p>The empirical part of the thesis is dealing with the test of IRS against some macro economical factors such as; costumer price index (CPI), Exchange Rate (EX), Export Volume (EXP) and Money Supply (MO) of two different countries; Taiwan and Chile. The study provides evidence of the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomical factors. The result shows that the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomics factors vary from country to country. This mainly depends on the difference in political situation, the different economic and political policies of various goverments, the high inflation rates and the market structure of the countries. The value of the coefficients gives the magnitude of adjustment in the event that the systems move out of equilibrium. It also provides some evidence that there is a significant relationship between interst rate spread and economical growth. The test results show clearly that in order to gain a sustainable development and economical growth the financial markets must perform well.</p>

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:58:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 2005RobertodeFaria22012008.pdf.jpg: 13551 bytes, checksum: b5388d4a8f0300ca6239ab55c1147334 (MD5) 2005RobertodeFaria22012008.pdf.txt: 71428 bytes, checksum: 5ab7d60c7cd60c006f554157c8e9f4cb (MD5) 2005RobertodeFaria22012008.pdf: 479575 bytes, checksum: c55a08ed21f14d6c2515548560e12263 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-01-22T00:00:00Z / This dissertation deals with the coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy in Brazil. The work aims to test the hypothesis that aggregate demand is affected by fiscal policy in Brazil between 1995 through 2006. To that end, the paper estimates an IS curve for Brazil in this period, including tax explanatory variables. The result is that there is statistical evidence that the output gap relative to potential output (from now on the product gap) is dependent (positively) government spending level and (negatively) the collection of the public sector. Moreover, as the theory predicts, government spending has an effect (in magnitude) more intense than government revenues, so that both the level of the primary surplus, as the size of government in proportion to GDP impact on aggregate demand. Thus, assuming that the convergence of real exchange rate via uncovered interest parity rate has been lagging in the period under review, fiscal policy may have contributed to maintenance of real interest rate above the equilibrium level for the period in question. / Essa dissertação trata da coordenação entre política monetária e política fiscal. O trabalho visa testar a hipótese de que a demanda agregada é afetada pela política fiscal no Brasil entre 1995 e 2006. Com esse intuito, o trabalho estima uma curva IS para o Brasil nesse período, incluindo variáveis fiscais explicativas. O resultado é de que há evidência estatística de que o desvio do produto em relação ao produto potencial (de agora em diante gap do produto) seja dependente (positivamente) do nível de gastos do governo e (negativamente) da arrecadação do setor público. Além disso, conforme a teoria prevê, o gasto do governo tem um efeito (em módulo) mais intenso do que a arrecadação do governo, de modo que tanto o nível do superávit primário, quanto o tamanho do governo em proporção ao PIB têm impacto sobre a demanda agregada. Assim, assumindo que a convergência da taxa de câmbio real via paridade descoberta de taxa de juros tenha sido defasada no período sob análise, a política fiscal pode ter contribuído para manutenção da taxa de juros real acima do nível de equilíbrio no período em questão.

Este estudo têm como objetivo identificar qual o comportamento de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto com relação à aplicação dos recursos financeiros de seus fluxos de caixa (recursos internos) em investimentos e não investimentos (em fins que não se configuram como um projeto real de investimento) no curto e longo prazo e mostrar como essa questão está relacionado com o grau de restrições financeiras enfrentado pelas empresas. Para alcançar esse objetivo foram estimadas quatro regressões pelo método OLS (Ordinary Least Square / Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários), cada uma delas com uma das variáveis resposta correspondentes aos principais usos de caixa, ou seja, retenção de caixa, investimentos, dividendos e redução do financiamento externo e com as variáveis explicativas dadas pelo fluxo de caixa nos períodos t, t-1 e t-2 e algumas variáveis de controle específicas da firma. Os resultados sugerem que empresas brasileiras restritas e irrestritas se comportam de forma diferente ao receberem um choque positivo em seus fluxos de caixa e que o comportamento das mesmas também difere no curto e no longo prazo. Empresas restritas e irrestritas ao receberem um choque positivo em seus fluxos de caixa, retêm caixa no período contemporâneo e alocam tais recursos intertemporalmente. Empresas restritas investem mais no curto prazo enquanto as irrestritas investem mais no longo prazo. No curto prazo, empresas irrestritas distribuem mais dividendos do que empresas irrestritas e no longo prazo, os coeficientes dos fluxos de caixa não são significativos para nenhum dos grupos. No curto prazo empresas irrestritas reduzem o financiamento externo, enquanto empresas restritas levantam mais financiamentos externos e no longo prazo, esse comportamento se inverte. Dessa forma, fica clara a importância de se considerar o longo prazo bem como as restrições financeiras enfrentadas pelas empresas. / This study aim to identify what is the behaviour of Brazilian public companies regarding the use of financial resources of cash flows (internal resources) in investments and not investments (for purposes that are not configured as a real investment project) in the short and long term and show how this is related to the degree of financial constraints faced by firms. To achieve this aim, four regressions were estimated by OLS ( Ordinary Least Square), each with one of the response variables corresponding to the main uses of cash, ie , cash holding, investments, dividends and external finance reduction and the explanatory variables given by the cash flow in periods t , t - 1 and t - 2 and some control variables specific of the firm. The results suggest that restricted and unrestricted Brazilian companies behave differently when they receive a positive shock on cash flows and their behavior also differs in the short and long term. When constrained and unconstrained firms receive a positive impact on cash flows, they retain cash in the contemporary period and intertemporally allocate such resources. Constrained firms invest more in the short term while the unrestricted invest more in the long run. In the short term, unconstrained firms distribute more dividends than unconstrained firms and in the long run, the coefficients of cash flows are not significant for either groups. In the short term unconstrained firms reduce external finance, while constrained firms raise more external finance and in the long term, this behavior is reversed. Thus, it is clear that it matters to consider the long term as well as financial constraints faced by firms.

The thesis analyses determinants of shopping centre sales and its attendance demand; it is based on data of the specific shopping centre from the years 2007 -- 2011. Based on a five-year monthly time series, two sales models are created. One model tracks sales per customer, the other deals with the shopping centre sales which are compared with the sales index of retailers. On the other hand, a model of the shopping centre attendance demand uses figures of a five-year daily time series. Independent variables with significant effect on dependent variables are identified in the theoretical part. The models are estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares estimation. In all models, seasonal influences proved to be a significant determinant. In the sales models, hypotheses of the competition effect have been verified. Furthermore, in case of the attendance demand model, weather and marketing effects were estimated as important. Surprisingly, the economic variables proved themselves to be insignificant, which could be caused by the relatively short observation period. The limiting factor of all models is also the fact that the dataset consists of one shopping centre only. It prevents the author from conducting a comprehensive examination of other important determinants of shopping centre sales and attendance.

Este estudo têm como objetivo identificar qual o comportamento de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto com relação à aplicação dos recursos financeiros de seus fluxos de caixa (recursos internos) em investimentos e não investimentos (em fins que não se configuram como um projeto real de investimento) no curto e longo prazo e mostrar como essa questão está relacionado com o grau de restrições financeiras enfrentado pelas empresas. Para alcançar esse objetivo foram estimadas quatro regressões pelo método OLS (Ordinary Least Square / Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários), cada uma delas com uma das variáveis resposta correspondentes aos principais usos de caixa, ou seja, retenção de caixa, investimentos, dividendos e redução do financiamento externo e com as variáveis explicativas dadas pelo fluxo de caixa nos períodos t, t-1 e t-2 e algumas variáveis de controle específicas da firma. Os resultados sugerem que empresas brasileiras restritas e irrestritas se comportam de forma diferente ao receberem um choque positivo em seus fluxos de caixa e que o comportamento das mesmas também difere no curto e no longo prazo. Empresas restritas e irrestritas ao receberem um choque positivo em seus fluxos de caixa, retêm caixa no período contemporâneo e alocam tais recursos intertemporalmente. Empresas restritas investem mais no curto prazo enquanto as irrestritas investem mais no longo prazo. No curto prazo, empresas irrestritas distribuem mais dividendos do que empresas irrestritas e no longo prazo, os coeficientes dos fluxos de caixa não são significativos para nenhum dos grupos. No curto prazo empresas irrestritas reduzem o financiamento externo, enquanto empresas restritas levantam mais financiamentos externos e no longo prazo, esse comportamento se inverte. Dessa forma, fica clara a importância de se considerar o longo prazo bem como as restrições financeiras enfrentadas pelas empresas. / This study aim to identify what is the behaviour of Brazilian public companies regarding the use of financial resources of cash flows (internal resources) in investments and not investments (for purposes that are not configured as a real investment project) in the short and long term and show how this is related to the degree of financial constraints faced by firms. To achieve this aim, four regressions were estimated by OLS ( Ordinary Least Square), each with one of the response variables corresponding to the main uses of cash, ie , cash holding, investments, dividends and external finance reduction and the explanatory variables given by the cash flow in periods t , t - 1 and t - 2 and some control variables specific of the firm. The results suggest that restricted and unrestricted Brazilian companies behave differently when they receive a positive shock on cash flows and their behavior also differs in the short and long term. When constrained and unconstrained firms receive a positive impact on cash flows, they retain cash in the contemporary period and intertemporally allocate such resources. Constrained firms invest more in the short term while the unrestricted invest more in the long run. In the short term, unconstrained firms distribute more dividends than unconstrained firms and in the long run, the coefficients of cash flows are not significant for either groups. In the short term unconstrained firms reduce external finance, while constrained firms raise more external finance and in the long term, this behavior is reversed. Thus, it is clear that it matters to consider the long term as well as financial constraints faced by firms.

The purpose of this study is to estimate the relationship between income inequality and immigration in Sweden. To do so, data from the data base Kolada with observations from all 290 municipalities in Sweden is used. As a proxy for income distribution the Gini coefficient is used and as a proxy for immigration the share of foreign born of working age is used. The model also controls for income tax, education level and unemployment level. The dependent variable the Gini coefficient is bounded by a unit interval and it is therefore not possible to simply run a linear regression. Such a model could potentially predict outside the interval. To properly estimate the relationship two approaches are made. Firstly a model is estimated with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) after the dependent variable is transformed on to the real line through log-odds. Then a model is estimated using beta regression. The study concludes that there is a statistically significant positive correlation between income inequality and immigration in Sweden. The OLS estimated model shows that a 1 unit increase in immigration, on average increases the log-odds of 0.28336 units, ceteris paribus. Beta regression provides perhaps more intuitive results. If immigration increases with 1% the income inequality increases with on average 0.1046%, ceteris paribus. Because of the easier interpretation, among other things, beta regression is determined to be a better estimation method in this study.

La presente investigación, ganadora del Concurso Anual de Investigación CIES 2018, cuenta con el auspicio de Global Affairs Canada (GAC), el Centro Internacional de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo (IDRC, por sus siglas en inglés), la Fundación Manuel J. Bustamante De la Fuente y la Superintendencia Nacional de Aduanas y de Administración Tributaria (SUNAT). / Este documento examina el impacto de la membresía cooperativa agropecuaria sobre los rendimientos financiero y productivo en los años 2015 y 2016. Empleamos los modelos Propensity Score Matching y Pooled OLS sobre los datos del Censo de Cooperativas y de la Encuesta Nacional Agropecuaria. Nuestro análisis revela que la membresía cooperativa afecta positivamente los rendimientos en los sectores agrario y agropecuario, pero no en el sector pecuario. Dicho impacto supera los impactos estimados para otras formas de asociatividad. Asimismo, se encuentra un efecto spillover positivo de una localidad con alta presencia cooperativa sobre localidades aledañas. Finalmente, se descubre que la participación femenina en directorios cooperativos agropecuarios también influye positivamente sobre los rendimientos de los productores agropecuarios. / This research examines the impact of agricultural cooperative membership on financial and productive performance in 2015 and 2016. We use the Propensity Score Matching and Pooled OLS models on the data from the Cooperative Census and the National Agricultural Survey. Our analysis reveals that cooperative membership positively affects yields in the agrarian and agricultural sectors, but not in the livestock sector. This impact exceeds the estimated impacts for other types of associativity. Likewise, there is a positive spillover effect of a locality with high cooperative presence over nearby localities yields. Finally, it is discovered that the participation of women in agricultural cooperative directories also positively influences the yields of agricultural producers.

In this diploma thesis we gather information on European mutual funds and ETFs that would help to inform the decision of an investment manager. We cre-ated OLS models for three types of mutual funds - money market, bond and equity – to demonstrate a relationship between funds' volatility and their annualised return. We then utilised VAR models to test Granger causation between an ETF and its tracking index using their net asset value.