The development of machine learning research has provided statistical innovations and further developments within the field of time series analysis. This study seeks to investigate two different approaches on artificial neural network models based on different learning techniques, and answering how well the neural network approach compares with a basic autoregressive approach, as well as how the artificial neural network models compare to each other. The models were compared and analyzed in regards to the univariate forecast accuracy on 20 randomly drawn time series from two different time frequencies from the M4 competition dataset. Forecasting was made dependent on one time lag (t-1) and forecasted three and six steps ahead respectively. The artificial neural network models outperformed the baseline Autoregressive model, showing notably lower mean average percentage error overall. The Multilayered perceptron models performed better than the Long short-term memory model overall, whereas the Long short-term memory model showed improvement on longer prediction time dimensions. As the training were done univariately  on a limited set of time steps, it is believed that the one layered-approach gave a good enough approximation on the data, whereas the added layer couldn’t fully utilize its strengths of processing power. Likewise, the Long short-term memory model couldn’t fully demonstrate the advantagements of recurrent learning. Using the same dataset, further studies could be made with another approach to data processing. Implementing an unsupervised approach of clustering the data before analysis, the same models could be tested with multivariate analysis on models trained on multiple time series simultaneously.

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As the complexity of deep learning model increases, the transparency of the systems does the opposite. It may be hard to understand the predictions a deep learning model makes, but even harder to understand why these predictions are made. Using eXplainable AI (XAI), we can gain greater knowledge of how the model operates and how the input in which the model receives can change its predictions. In this thesis, we apply Integrated Gradients (IG), an XAI method primarily used on image data and on datasets containing tabular and time-series data. We also evaluate how the results of IG differ from various types of models and how the change of baseline can change the outcome. In these results, we observe that IG can be applied to both sequenced and nonsequenced data, with varying results. We can see that the gradient baseline does not affect the results of IG on models such as RNN, LSTM, and GRU, where the data contains time series, as much as it does for models like MLP with nonsequenced data. To confirm this, we also applied IG to SVM models, which gave the results that the choice of gradient baseline has a significant impact on the results of IG.

Organizations gather enormous amounts of data and analyze these data to extract insights that can be useful for them and help them to make better decisions. Predictive data analytics is a crucial subfield within data analytics that make accurate predictions. Predictive data analytics extracts insights from data by using machine learning algorithms. This thesis presents the supervised learning algorithm to perform predicative data analytics in Embedded Test System at the Nordic Engineering Partner company. Predictive Maintenance is a concept that is often used in manufacturing industries which refers to predicting asset failures before they occur. The machine learning algorithms used in this thesis are support vector machines, multi-layer perceptrons, random forests, and gradient boosting. Both binary and multi-class classifier have been provided to fit the models, and cross-validation, sampling techniques, and a confusion matrix have been provided to accurately measure their performance. In addition to accuracy, recall, precision, f1, kappa, mcc, and roc auc measurements are used as well. The prediction models that are fitted achieve high accuracy.

Side-channel attacks have become a realistic threat to the implementations of cryptographic algorithms. By analyzing the unintentional, side-channel leakage, the attacker is able to recover the secret of the target. Recently, a new type of side-channel leakage has been discovered, called far field EM emissions. Unlike attacks based on near field EM emissions or power consumption, the attack based on far field EM emissions is able to extract the secret key from the victim device of several meters distance. However, existing deep-learning attacks based far field EM commonly use a random or grid search method to optimize neural networks’ hyperparameters. Recently, an automated way for deep learning hyperparameter tuning based on Auto- Keras library, called AutoSCA framework, was applied to near-field EM attacks. In this work, we investigate if AutoSCA could help far field EM side-channel attacks. In our experiments, the target is a Bluetooth-5 supported Nordic Semiconductor nRF52832 development kit implementation of Advanced Encryption Standard (AES). Our experiments show that, by using a deep-learning model generated by the AutoSCA framework, we need 485 traces on average to recover a subkey from traces captured at 15 meters distance from the victim device without repeating each encryption. For the same conditions, the state-of-the-art method uses 510 traces. Furthermore, our model contains only 667,433 trainable parameters in total, implying that it requires roughly 9 times less training resources compared to the larger models in the previous work. / Angrepp på sidokanaler har blivit ett realistiskt hot mot implementeringen av kryptografiska algoritmer.Genom att analysera det oavsiktliga läckaget kan angriparen hitta hemligheten bakom målet.Nyligen har en ny typ av sidokanalläckage upptäckts, kallad fjärrfälts EM-utsläpp.Till skillnad från attacker baserade på nära fält EM- utsläpp eller energiförbrukning, kan attacken baserad på yttre fält EM-utsläpp extrahera den hemliga nyckeln från den skadade anordningen på flera meter avstånd.Men befintliga djupinlärningsattacker baserade på långt fält EM använder ofta en slumpmässig sökmetod för att optimera nervnätens hyperparametrar. Nyligen tillämpades ett automatiserat sätt för djupinlärning av hyperparametern baserad på Auto-Keras- bibliotek, AutoSCA- ramverket, vid EM-angrepp nära fältet.I det här arbetet undersöker vi om AutoSCA kan hjälpa till med EM-angrepp.I våra experiment är målet en Bluetooth-5-stödd nordisk semidirigent nR52832- utvecklingsutrustning för avancerad krypteringsstandard (AES).Våra experiment visar att genom att använda en djupinlärningsmodell skapad av AutoSCA-ramverket, behöver vi 485-spår i genomsnitt för att hämta en subnyckel från spår tagna på 15- meters avstånd från offrets apparat utan att upprepa varje kryptering.Under samma förhållanden använder den senaste metoden 510-spår.Dessutom innehåller vår modell bara 667,433-parametrar som totalt kan användas för utbildning, vilket innebär att det krävs ungefär nio gånger mindre utbildningsresurser jämfört med de större modellerna i det tidigare arbetet.

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Computer simulation is a commonly applied technique for studying electronic warfare duels. This thesis aims to apply machine learning techniques to convert simulation output data into knowledge and insights regarding defensive actions for a ship facing multiple hostile missiles. The analysis may support tactical decision-making, hence the interpretability aspect of predictions is necessary to allow for human evaluation and understanding of impacts from the explanatory variables. The final distance for the threats to the target and the probability of the threats hitting the target was modeled using a multi-layer perceptron model with a multi-task approach, including custom loss functions. The results generated in this study show that the selected methodology is more successful than a baseline using regression models. Modeling the outcome with artificial neural networks results in a black box for decision making. Therefore the concept of interpretable machine learning was applied using a post-hoc approach. Given the learned model, the features considered, and the multiple threats, the feature contributions to the model were interpreted using Kernel SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The method consists of local linear surrogate models for approximating Shapley values. The analysis primarily showed that an increased seeker activation distance was important, and the increased time for defensive actions improved the outcomes. Further, predicting the final distance to the ship at the beginning of a simulation is important and, in general, a guidance of the actual outcome. The action of firing chaff grenades in the tracking gate also had importance. More chaff grenades influenced the missiles' tracking and provided a preferable outcome from the defended ship's point of view.

Two types of artificial neural networks, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Self-organizing Feature Map (SOM), were employed to detect mastitis for robotic milking stations using the preprocessed data relating to the electrical conductivity and milk yield. The SOM was developed to classify the health status into three categories: healthy, moderately ill and severely ill. The clustering results were successfully evaluated and validated by using statistical techniques such as K-means clustering, ANOVA and Least Significant Difference. The result shows that the SOM could be used in the robotic milking stations as a detection model for mastitis. For developing MLP models, a new mastitis definition based on higher EC and lower quarter yield was created and Principle Components Analysis technique was adopted for addressing the problem of multi-colinearity existed in the data. Four MLPs with four combined datasets were developed and the results manifested that the PCA-based MLP model is superior to other non-PCA-based models in many respects such as less complexity, higher predictive accuracy. The overall correct classification rate (CCR), sensitivity and specificity of the model was 90.74 %, 86.90 and 91.36, respectively. We conclude that the PCA-based model developed here can improve the accuracy of prediction of mastitis by robotic milking stations.

Modern methods of speech synthesis are not suitable for restoration of song signals due to lack of vitality and intonation in the resulted sounds. The aim of presented work is to synthesize melismas met in Lithuanian folk songs, by applying Artificial Neural Networks. An analytical survey of rather a widespread literature is presented. First classification and comprehensive discussion of melismas are given. The theory of dynamic systems which will make the basis for studying melismas is presented and finally the relationship for modeling a melisma with nonlinear and dynamic systems is outlined. Investigation of the most widely used Linear Prediction Coding method and possibilities of its improvement. The modification of original Linear Prediction method based on dynamic LPC frame positioning is proposed. On its basis, the new melisma synthesis technique is presented. Developed flexible generalized melisma model, based on two Artificial Neural Networks – a Multilayer Perceptron and Adaline – as well as on two network training algorithms – Levenberg- Marquardt and the Least Squares error minimization – is presented. Moreover, original mathematical models of Fortis, Gruppett, Mordent and Trill are created, fit for synthesizing melismas, and their minimal sizes are proposed. The last chapter concerns experimental investigation, using over 500 melisma records, and corroborates application of the new mathematical models to melisma synthesis of one performer.

Modern methods of speech synthesis are not suitable for restoration of song signals due to lack of vitality and intonation in the resulted sounds. The aim of presented work is to synthesize melismas met in Lithuanian folk songs, by applying Artificial Neural Networks. An analytical survey of rather a widespread literature is presented. First classification and comprehensive discussion of melismas are given. The theory of dynamic systems which will make the basis for studying melismas is presented and finally the relationship for modeling a melisma with nonlinear and dynamic systems is outlined. Investigation of the most widely used Linear Prediction Coding method and possibilities of its improvement. The modification of original Linear Prediction method based on dynamic LPC frame positioning is proposed. On its basis, the new melisma synthesis technique is presented. Developed flexible generalized melisma model, based on two Artificial Neural Networks – a Multilayer Perceptron and Adaline – as well as on two network training algorithms – Levenberg- Marquardt and the Least Squares error minimization – is presented. Moreover, original mathematical models of Fortis, Gruppett, Mordent and Trill are created, fit for synthesizing melismas, and their minimal sizes are proposed. The last chapter concerns experimental investigation, using over 500 melisma records, and corroborates application of the new mathematical models to melisma synthesis of one performer.