Submitted by Joana Vieira (joana_cvieira@hotmail.com) on 2015-10-13T12:58:25Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FINAL REPORT JOANA VEIRA FGV.pdf: 3927213 bytes, checksum: a8f998809220a76b7f10b84fa630e2b0 (MD5) / Rejected by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br), reason: Joana, o numero das paginas deve contar a partir da capa, está certo mas só deve aparecer o numero a partir da introdução. fico a disposição. Ana Luiza Holme 3799-3492 on 2015-10-13T16:24:51Z (GMT) / Submitted by Joana Vieira (joana_cvieira@hotmail.com) on 2015-10-13T17:42:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FINAL REPORT JOANA VEIRA FGV.pdf: 3951971 bytes, checksum: 667456b57a07dda99ac9aeb852a0c8ee (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br) on 2015-10-13T17:44:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FINAL REPORT JOANA VEIRA FGV.pdf: 3951971 bytes, checksum: 667456b57a07dda99ac9aeb852a0c8ee (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-10-13T17:49:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FINAL REPORT JOANA VEIRA FGV.pdf: 3951971 bytes, checksum: 667456b57a07dda99ac9aeb852a0c8ee (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-09-25 / Taking into account previous research we could assume to be beneficial to diversify investments in emerging economies. We investigate in the paper International Portfolio Diversification: evidence from Emerging Markets if it still holds true, given the assumption of larger world markets integration. Our results suggest a wide spread positive time-varying correlations of emerging and developed markets. However, pair-wise cross-country correlations gave evidence that emerging markets have low integration with developed markets. Consequently, we evaluate out-of-sample performance of a portfolio with emerging equity countries, confirming the initial statement that it has a better a risk-adjusted performance over a purely developed markets portfolio.

The master's thesis is focused on Stock portfolio optimalization on Czech capital market. The analysis of each stock, estimation and portfolio optimalization proposal are included. In the practical part the Fundamental analysis is applied. The portfolio optimalization is estemated by portfolio theory which is consist in the relationship between stock price and market trends represents by PX Index and expressing correlation of them by beta coefficient.

No description available.

This thesis consists of four self-contained papers related to the change of market structure and the quality of equity market. In Paper [I] we found, by using of a Flexible Dynamic Component Correlations (FDCC) model, that the creation of a common cross-border stock trading platform has increased the long-run trends in conditional correlations between foreign and domestic stock market returns. In Paper [II] we study whether the creation of a uniform Nordic and Baltic stock trading platform has affected weak-form information efficiency. The results indicate that the stock market consolidations have had a positive effect on the information efficiency and turnover for an average firm. The merger effects are, however, asymmetrically distributed in the sense that relatively large (small) firms located on relatively large (small) markets experience an improved (reduced) information efficiency and turnover. Although the results indicate that changes in the level of investor attention (measured by turnover) may explain part of the changes in information efficiency, they also lend support to the hypothesis that merger effects may partially be driven by changes in the composition of informed versus uninformed investors following a stock. Paper [III] analyzes whether the measured level of trust in different countries can explain bilateral stock market correlations. One finding is that generalized trust among nations is a robust predictor for stock market correlations. Another is that the trust effect is larger for countries which are close to each other. This indicates that distance mitigates the trust effect. Finally, we confirm the effect of trust upon stock market correlations, by using particular trust data (bilateral trust between country A and country B) as an alternative measurement of trust. In Paper [IV] we present the impact of the stock market mergers that took place in the Nordic countries during 2000 – 2007 on the probabilities for stock price jumps, i.e. for relatively extreme price movements. The main finding is that stock market mergers, on average, reduce the likelihood of observing stock price jumps. The effects are asymmetric in the sense that the probability of sudden price jumps is reduced for large and medium size firms whereas the effect is ambiguous for small size firms. The results also indicate that the market risk has been reduced after the stock market consolidations took place.

Le Bris a collecté environ 200 000 données sur les actions françaises entre 1854 et 1988 pour construire un indice de performances.Différents biais qui surestimaient la rentabilité dans les indices français existants sont identifiés. D’autres probables cas à l’étranger sont présentés.Sur le long terme, les actions offrent une meilleure rentabilité que les autres actifs mais sans prime particulière.Par rapport aux actions américaines, les françaises sous-performent y compris durant les périodes de paix.Le marché est très sensible aux changements de gouvernements et surperforme sous ceux de gauche.Une nouvelle méthode de détection des krachs est proposée. Elle identifie des krachs cohérents avec l’histoire.Les entreprises de services dominent la capitalisation boursière de manière quasi-continue depuis 1854.La rationalité des investissements en emprunts russes avant 1914 est démontrée grâce à une optimisation de portefeuille parmi les actifs français (action, obligation, rente) et huit emprunts d’Etats étrangers.Une nouvelle méthode de décomposition du bénéfice de diversification est proposée ; les investisseurs français étaient attirés par la faible corrélation plus que par les rentabilités étrangères supérieures avant 1914.Les actions françaises et américaines présentent une hausse de corrélation sur le long terme probablement suivant l’intégration des économies. Ainsi, l’incitation à diversifier internationalement a baissé.Le risque de marché enregistre une forte hausse durant l’entre-deux-guerres et le niveau pré-1914 n’est jamais retrouvé. Il semble lié à la fin du Gold Standard, à l’inflation et aux déficits publics.Conséquence de la hausse de ce risque commun, la corrélation entre actions françaises augmente, réduisant l’effet de diversification domestique ; a l’opposé un « super effet portefeuille » est identifiée avant 1914. / Le Bris, collecting about 200,000 data on French stocks from 1854 to 1988, builds a performance index. Several biases leading to overestimate the returns in prior French indices are demonstrated, as well as other probable examples across the globe.Over the long run, French stocks provide a better return than other assets, but without any excessive premium.Compared to US stocks, French stocks have underperformed since 1914, including during the periods of peace.The French stock market is highly sensitive to governmental changes, and overperforms under the left ones.A new method to identify market crashes is proposed. This method identifies crashes that are consistent withhistory.Firms from service industries have almost always dominated market capitalization since 1854.The rationality of the French investments in Russian bonds, before 1914, is demonstrated thanks to a portfoliooptimization among French assets (stock, bonds and corporate bonds) and eight international state bonds.A new method to decompose the benefit of diversification is proposed; before 1914, French investors wereclearly attracted by low foreign correlation rather than higher foreign returns.French and US stocks present a long-term rise in correlation, probably following the economic integration.Thus, the incentive to diversify through international markets has decreased.The market risk exhibits a significant rise during the interwar-period, and the pre-1914 level is never reachedagain. This risk appears to be linked to the end of the Gold Standard, the inflation rate and the public deficits.The consequence of the rise of this common risk is that the correlation among French stocks trend upwards, andthen, reduce the domestic portfolio effect; reversely, before 1914, a “super portfolio effect” is identified.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T18:40:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Eduardo Franco Ribeiro.pdf: 581960 bytes, checksum: 0c20561d151693cda933516c6eb0c17b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-11-03 / The phenomenom wich narrows and puts closer international relations around the world known as globalization has reached the development of financial markets. The Exchange Traded Funds (ETF´s) have also been involved on this process. Globalization has brought a wide exposure to international markets creating opportunities in several asset classes with lower costs and minimal investments, thus making ETF´s an extremely attractive product. This paper intends to show how ETF´s works, its creation, redemption and dealing process since such investment funds are still unknow to Brazilian investors. In addition, international portfolios will be built with ETF´s indexed cross-country equity markets, the main objective is check if a Brazilian investor may optimize his portfolio comparing international portfolios built with the brazilian asset market given by the EWZ fund / O fenômeno que estreita e aproxima as relações internacionais nos mais diversos níveis e cuja expressão globalização foi cunhada para nomeá-lo, também alcança os mercados financeiros. Os fundos de índice negociados em bolsa de valores conhecidos como ETF´s (exchange traded funds) encontram-se dentro desse processo. A possibilidade de obter exposições em diversos mercados internacionais e nas mais diversas classes de ativos a custos relativamente baixos e valores mínimos para investimento seja talvez um dos principais atrativos desse novo produto financeiro. Dessa forma, o presente trabalho pretende mostrar a criação e o funcionamento desses fundos, que ainda são pouco conhecidos no Brasil. E, a partir daí, montar carteiras internacionais, com fundos ETF indexados ao mercado de ações de diversos países, compará-las com o ativo de mercado brasileiro em dólares americanos, tentando verificar se o investidor brasileiro conseguiria otimizar a relação risco x retorno de seu portfólio por meio da diversificação com ETF´s

La loi monétaire de septembre 1939 interdit la détention, le commerce, l’importation et l’exportation de l’or enFrance. Un marché clandestin s’est alors créé en 1941 et fonctionne jusqu’en janvier 1948. La loi du 2 février1948 a rendu la liberté au commerce de l’or en France. Ainsi, un marché officiel de ce métal précieux est-ilouvert à la Bourse de Paris. Après 56 ans d’existence, il est fermé en juillet 2004. Depuis cette date, le marché del’or en France est un marché de gré à gré où le prix d’équilibre est déterminé par la Compagnie Parisienne deRéescompte. Malgré cette riche histoire, le marché de l’or à Paris depuis 1941 n’a jamais été étudiéscientifiquement jusqu’à maintenant. Afin de l’explorer, cette thèse est divisée en deux parties distinctes. Lapremière l’étudie sous l’angle historique. Nous analysons son évolution en le rattachant aux événements del’histoire le qualifiant de plusieurs statuts différents : un marché clandestin de 1941 à 1948 (chapitre 1), unmarché réglementé de 1948 à 2004 (chapitres 2 et 3) et un marché de gré à gré de 2004 à 2009 (chapitre 4). Ladeuxième partie de la thèse étudie le marché de l’or à Paris sous l’angle financier. Les résultats du chapitre 5montrent que l’hypothèse de l’efficience informationnelle du marché parisien de l’or ne semble pas être validée.Dans le chapitre 6, nous trouvons que l’or coté à Paris (le lingot et la pièce napoléon) est moins rentable à longtermeque les actions. Cependant, il est aussi risqué que ces dernières et quatre fois plus risqué que lesobligations. Contrairement à la littérature anglo-saxonne, nous trouvons, dans le chapitre 7, que l’or n’est pas unbon moyen de protection contre l’inflation en France. De même, l’or coté à Paris n’est favorable dans ladiversification des portefeuilles français que durant les périodes où son prix a une tendance haussière. / The monetary law of September 1939 forbids possession, trade, import and export of gold in France. Aclandestine market was then created in 1941 and operates until January 1948. The law of February 2nd, 1948turned back the liberty to the gold trade in France. Thus, an official market was opened at the Paris StockExchange. After 56 years of existence, it was closed in July 2004. Since then, the gold market in France is anover the counter market where price is fixed by the Compagnie Parisienne de Réescompte. In spite of this veryrich history, the Paris Gold Market from 1941 has never been studied scientifically before. In order to explorethis market, our thesis is divided in two distinct parts. The first one concerns the historical analysis. We presentthe evolution of the market in parallel with the historical events which describe it by different natures: aclandestine market from 1941 to 1948 (chapter 1), an official market from 1948 to 2004 (chapters 2 and 3) andan over the counter market from 2004 until now (chapter 4). The second part of the thesis analyzes the financialaspects of the Paris gold market. The results of the chapter 5 show that the efficient market hypothesis seems notto be validated. In the chapter 6, we find that gold quoted at Paris (ingot and napoleon coin) are less profitablethan stocks in the long-term. Nevertheless, they have the same level of risk than these latters and are four timesmore risky than bonds. Contrarily to the Anglo-Saxon literature, we find, in the chapter 7, that gold is not a goodhedge against inflation in France. At the same time, gold quoted at Paris is favorable in the diversification ofFrench portfolios only in the periods when its price has an upward trend.

Magister Commercii - MCom / Diversification is one of the more familiar concepts in finance because of its ability to curtail risk towards investors. However, for diversification to be efficient, the assets combined should have inversely related price movements. In the same light, previous research done on international portfolio diversification has consistently found that having investments diversified across different global markets that have low to medium correlations helps to get as close to an optimal portfolio as possible. However, previous research also indicates that both global financial integration and exogenous shocks increase correlations among international markets, hence negating the benefits of international portfolio diversification to an extent. Therefore, with global integration on the rise, coupled with economic and political instability in some BRICS nations, the research examines these factors and gauges the current viability of international portfolio diversification from the perspective of a South African investor.

År 2007 – 2008 var Finanskrisen i full kraft vilket forcerade många individer till att träda ut från aktiemarknaden. Ett hårdare finansiellt klimat och en mer komplex produktmarknad har resulterat i att alla individer inte kunnat parera marknadens hastiga förändringar och därmed invänta en framtida marknadsåterhämtning. Detta utfall kan således ha varit förknippat med stora förluster av finansiella tillgångar. Tidigare forskning indikerar att det existerar ett behov av finansiell förmåga vid dessa typer av krissituationer. Är investerares finansiella förmåga en lösning här? Och isåfall, vilka kunskaper är mest centrala för att uppnå en hög finansiell förmåga? I studiens teoretiska referensram redovisas tidigare forskning och en övergripande inblick ges i investerares portföljsammansättningar samt diversifiering av dessa. Först redogörs det för individers finansiella förmåga som innehar en central roll vid investeringar på aktiemarknaden då en hög finansiell förmåga tenderar att medföra möjligheter som kan frambringa goda ekonomiska förutsättningar. Vidare presenteras grundläggande portföljteori följt av diverse riskpreferenser som existerar i denna kontext. Därefter beskrivs de effekter som ofta uppkommer med i samband med finanskriser.  Syftet med studien är att undersöka hur ingenjörer och ekonomer bygger upp och omfördelar sina aktieportföljer. Ett grundläggande kriterium avseende urvalet är att de har erhållit en examen från Uppsala Universitet, inom antingen ekonomi eller ingenjörsskap, mellan år 2000 till 2018. Det centrala här är att identifiera vilka riskpreferenser som existerar för de båda urvalsgrupperna samt att analysera aktiemarknadsdeltagandet – detta för att identifiera möjliga skillnader utbildningarna emellan.  I kölvattnet av Finanskrisen har flertalet investerare uppvisat tendenser till ett mer riskaversivt beteendemönster där resultaten visar på ett reducerat risktagande efter Finanskrisens avslut (2009 – 2018) i förhållande till perioden innan Finanskrisens uppkomst (2000 – 2006). När effekten av Finanskrisen var som starkast (2007 – 2008) uppvisade investerarna ett tydligt avståndstagande från aktiemarknaden, där de som trots allt valde att stanna kvar på marknaden eftersökte mindre riskfyllda investeringsalternativ. Resultaten pekar på att urvalets ekonomer handlar utifrån en mer riskaversiv utgångspunkt gentemot ingenjörer som istället tenderar att uppvisa en mer riskneutrala inställning till marknadens investeringsalternativ. / During 2007 – 2008 when the global financial crisis was in full effect, a majority of the investors on the stock market were forced to exit due to a harsher financial environment and increasing complexity of financial products. The results of this outcome were associated with losses of financial assets for the investors. Previous research has identified and supported the need for financial literacy during financial crises. Could financial literacy be a key factor in resolving these issues? And if so, what kind of knowledge can lead to greater financial literacy? The purpose of this study is to examine how engineers and economists build and rebalance their portfolios. The aim has been to identify the risk preferences that exists for each target group, and to analyze stock market participation – before, during, and after the global financial crisis. This in turn, is crucial for the ability to compare the investors university education and to investigate possible differences in terms of knowledge. The results show that the investors in this study display risk averse behaviours and hold assets associated with risks that are lower than the market risk. Furthermore, economists tend to be more risk averse than engineers which in comparison are more risk neutral in their market behaviours.

Few studies have examined the impact of portfolio concentration upon the realised volatility of stock index portfolios, such as the FTSE 100. Instead, previous research has focused upon diversification across industries, across geographic regions and across different firms. The present study addresses this imbalance by calculating the daily time series of four concentration metrics for the FTSE 100 Index over the period from January 1984 through March 2003. In addition, the value weighted variance covariance matrix (VCM) of daily FTSE 100 Index constituent returns is decomposed into four sub-components: two from the diagonal elements and two from the off-diagonal elements of the VCM. These consist of the average variance of constituent returns, represented by the sum of diagonal elements in the VCM, and the average covariance represented by the sum of off-diagonal elements in the VCM. The value weighted average variance (VAV) and covariance (VAC) are each subdivided into the equally weighted average variance (EAV) the equally weighted average covariance (EAC) and incremental components that represent the difference between the respective value-weighted and equally weighted averages. These are referred to as the incremental average variance (IAV) and the incremental average covariance (IAC) respectively. The incremental average variance and the incremental average covariance are then combined, additively, to produce the incremental realised variance (IRV) of the FTSE 100 Index. The incremental average covariance and the incremental realised variance are found to be negative during the 1987 crash and the 1992 ERM crisis. They are also negative for a substantial part of the study period, even when concentration was at its highest level. Hence the findings of the study are consistent with the notion that the value weighted, and hence concentrated, FTSE 100 Index portfolio is generally less risky than a hypothetical equally weighted portfolio of FTSE 100 Index constituents. Furthermore, increases in concentration tend to precede decreases in incremental realised volatility and increases in the equally weighted components of the realised VCM. The results have important implications for portfolio managers concerned with the effect of changing portfolio weights upon portfolio volatility. They are also relevant to passive investors concerned about the effects of increased concentration upon their benchmark indices, and to providers of stock market indices.