The question of how to measure and classify people's risk preferences is of substantial importance in the field of economics. Inspired by the multitude of ways used to elicit risk preferences, we conduct a holistic investigation of the most prevalent method, the multiple price list (MPL) and its derivations. In our experiment, we find that revealed preferences differ under various versions of MPLs as well as yield unstable results within a 30-minute time frame. We determine the most stable elicitation method with the highest forecast accuracy by using multiple measures of within-method consistency and by using behavior in two economically relevant games as benchmarks. A derivation of the well-known method by Holt and Laury (American Economic Review 92(5):1644-1655, 2002), where the highest payoff is varied instead of probabilities, emerges as the best MPL method in both dimensions. As we pinpoint each MPL characteristic's effect on the revealed preference and its consistency, our results have implications for preference elicitation procedures in general.

Cette thèse est consacrée à l’étude des implications de l’incertitude sur la politique environnementale. Le débat autour de l’incertitude s’est intensifié dans le contexte du changement climatique et de durabilité. De nombreuses études récentes examinant les politiques environnementales ont montré comment l’incertitude peut modifier les comportements économiques. La thèse contribue à cette littérature croissante sur l’incertitude et la politique environnementale. A cet effet, le chapitre 2 vise à présenter une nouvelle explication pour les trappes à pauvreté par la présence de la probabilité de catastrophe. Je présente un nouvel arbitrage entre les politiques d’adaptation et d’atténuation autres que l’arbitrage dynamique habituel mis en évidence dans de nombreuses études. De nombreux rapports récents des institutions internationales ont commencé à mettre en évidence l’importance de construire une économie de marché grâce à des innovations en R&D qui gèrent les investissements d’adaptation et d’atténuation. Le chapitre 3 construit un modèle de croissance schumpétérienne dans lequel les investisseurs gèrent les investissements d’adaptation et d’atténuation. Le chapitre 4 porte sur les préférences individuelles et la durabilité. Ce chapitre vise à montrer que le critère du développement durable peut ne pas être conforme aux décisions optimales dans un modèle économique avec une possibilité de catastrophe lorsqu’il existe des cycles limites (Hopf bifucation). Par conséquent, le critère devrait être révisé par les décideurs politiques pour inclure la possibilité des cycles limites. / This thesis is dedicated to the study the implications of uncertainty on the design of the environmental policy. The debate around the uncertainty has intensified in the context of the climate change and sustainability issues. Many recent studies focusing on the environmental policies started to show how the uncertainty component can change the optimal behavior. The thesis contributes to this recent growing literature of uncertainty and environmental policy.The Chapter 2 aims to present a new explanation for poverty traps, by the presence of catastrophe probability. I present a new trade-off between adaptation and mitigation policies other than the usual dynamic trade-off highlighted in many studies which is crucial for developing countries.Many recent policy reports of international institutions started to highlight how important is to build a market economy through R&D innovations that handles adaptation and mitigation investments. The Chapter 3 builds a Schumpeterian growth model in which investors handle the adaptation and mitigation investments. I also show the implications of a catastrophic event risk on investment decisions. The results suggest that the economy can increase investments in R&D even though there is a higher risk of a catastrophic event.The Chapter 4 focuses on the individual preferences and sustainability. This chapter aims to show that the Sustainable Development criterion can be not in conformity with the optimal decisions in an economic model when there are limit cycles (Hopf bifucation). Therefore, the criterion should be revised by policymakers to encompass the possibility of limit cycles.

Reza a literatura neo-institucionalista que as normas que regem um processo decisório terão grande influência sobre o resultado final. Isto vale também para Assembleia Nacional Constituinte de 1987-1988. Não fosse assim um agrupamento de parlamentares descontentes com o andamento dos trabalhos constituintes não teria insurgido com uma proposta para a reformulação do Regimento Interno após quase um ano de funcionamento. Entender a importância do arcabouço institucional para as disputas políticas e o resultado final da ANC éa questão central desta dissertação. Desta forma, pretende-seresponder a seguinte pergunta: quais os efeitos tanto das normas que regularam o processo de formação/convocação da ANC, quanto do seu regimento que foi alterado ao longo dos trabalhos sobre o resultado final? O modelo de constituinte aprovado na convocação (congressual e não exclusiva) e o formato dos trabalhos constituintes (descentralização em subcomissões e comissões temáticas) foram amplamente contestados e disputados pelas consequências que os atores políticos antecipavam ou projetavam sobre elas. Os atores políticos sempre sabem que regras afetam resultados. Resta saber se eles sempre anteciparam corretamentee, para tanto, é possívelatentar para como eles se comportaram. Com o intuito de aprofundar o debate sobre a interação estratégica noprocesso constituinte, são analisadas as votações nominais no plenário da Constituinte para compreender como atores coletivos organizam preferências, reunindo maiorias em disputas políticas radicalizadas. / According to the new institutionalist literature, the rules regulating a decision making process play great influence on its final result. Thisassumption applies to the 1987-1988 National Constituent Assembly (NCA). Otherwise, a group of legislators dissatisfied with the works course would not have risen with a proposal to reform the Internal Rules after two years of Assembly. The main goal of this work is tocomprehend the importance of the institutional structure for the political contests and the final result of the NCA. Thus, I aim to answer the following question: what are the effects of the rules regulating the convocation of the NCA, as well as the rules regulating its works which have changed during theprocess on the final results? The constitution-making design approved at the beginning (a congressional one instead of an exclusive one) and the organization form of the works (decentralized in thematic commissions) were largely contested because of the consequences political actors were anticipating and looking forward to, since they are always aware of the rule´s impact. The question is whether or not they anticipated it correctly, and for such it is possible to watch how they have behaved. Attempting to deepen the debate about strategic interaction on the constitutional process, the roll calls will be analyzed in order to understand how collective actors organize their preferences, building majorities in radicalized political contests.

by Chi-heng Chan. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1996. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 70-71). / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.4 / Chapter 1.1 --- Existing models on purchase intentions --- p.4 / Chapter 1.2 --- Objective --- p.7 / Chapter 2 --- Modelling --- p.9 / Chapter 2.1 --- Beta Distribution --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2 --- Beta-binomial Distribution --- p.16 / Chapter 2.3 --- A new model without the binomial assumption --- p.17 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- Difficulties of the binomial assumption --- p.17 / Chapter 2.3.2 --- A new measure of stated purchase intentions --- p.18 / Chapter 2.3.3 --- Modelling the True purchase intention --- p.19 / Chapter 3 --- Methodology --- p.21 / Chapter 3.1 --- Two Approaches of Estimation --- p.21 / Chapter 3.1.1 --- Least Square Approach --- p.21 / Chapter 3.1.2 --- Maximum Likelihood Approach --- p.23 / Chapter 3.2 --- Estimation Procedures --- p.24 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Least Square Estimation --- p.26 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Maximum Likelihood Estimation --- p.27 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- Difference between DUNLSF and DUMPOL --- p.27 / Chapter 3.2.4 --- Evaluation of the Two approaches --- p.28 / Chapter 3.3 --- Results --- p.28 / Chapter 3.4 --- Simulation Study --- p.37 / Chapter 3.4.1 --- Procedure --- p.37 / Chapter 3.4.2 --- Simulation Results --- p.37 / Chapter 3.4.3 --- Evaluation of performance --- p.41 / Chapter 4 --- An Example --- p.42 / Chapter 4.1 --- Review on Usage of survey --- p.42 / Chapter 4.2 --- The Survey --- p.43 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Details of the survey --- p.44 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Results and Findings --- p.45 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- Interpretation --- p.47 / Chapter 5 --- Discussions and Conclusions --- p.51 / Chapter 5.1 --- Discussions --- p.51 / Chapter 5.2 --- Further Implications --- p.52 / Chapter 5.3 --- Conclusion --- p.54 / Chapter A --- Beta Distribution --- p.55 / Chapter B --- Programmes of estimation --- p.57 / Chapter B.l --- Minimization of (??) by the algorithm DUNLSF --- p.57 / Chapter B.2 --- Minimization of (??) by the algorithm DUMPOL --- p.60 / Chapter C --- Programmes of simulation --- p.63 / Chapter C.1 --- Simulation 1 (Refer to P.39) --- p.63 / Chapter C.2 --- Simulation 2 (Refer to P.40) --- p.67 / Chapter C.3 --- Simulation 3 (Refer to P.41) --- p.67 / Chapter D --- Programmes for figure drawing --- p.68 / Bibliography --- p.69

by Lee Man-Ho, Peter. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 119-125). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter Chapter 1. --- The Literature Review --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2. --- "Revealed Preference, Differentiable Demand, and Expenditure Function" --- p.9 / Chapter I. --- Introduction --- p.9 / Chapter II. --- Results --- p.12 / Chapter III. --- Proof of Proposition 1 --- p.30 / Chapter IV. --- Proof of Proposition 2 --- p.53 / Appendix --- p.64 / Chapter Chapter 3. --- Revealed Smooth and Homothetic Preferences --- p.67 / Chapter I. --- Introduction --- p.67 / Chapter II. --- Result --- p.68 / Chapter Chapter 4. --- Excess Demand and Homothetic Economy --- p.77 / Chapter I. --- Introduction --- p.77 / Chapter II. --- Results --- p.79 / Chapter III. --- Proofs --- p.84 / Chapter Chapter 5. --- Conclusion --- p.95 / Appendix. Validating SARP by Computer Programs --- p.98 / References --- p.119

One of the major demand related risks for companies that produce consumer electronics goods is change in consumer preferences over time as reflected in the weights they attach to the attributes of products. This contributes to the difficulty of predicting whether consumers will purchase a new product or not and the accuracy of such forecasts can have significant ramifications for companies’ strategies, profitability and even their chances of survival. Knowledge of attribute-weights and accurate forecasts of new products can give companies better insights during the product development stages, inform go-no-go decisions on whether to launch a developed product and also support decisions on whether a recently launched product should be withdrawn or not due to poor early stage sales. Despite the important implications of change in attribute-weights, no research has investigated the extent to which such changes occur and impact on the accuracy of forecasts of the future market share of these products. Prior to the current research, it was assumed that the weights are constant over time – even when the nature of the attributes was assumed to change. To investigate these concerns choice based conjoint (CBC) was applied to data gathered in a longitudinal survey of consumer choices relating a range of consumer electronic products, where innovation has different rates and the product life cycles are various. This allowed an assessment of the extent to which the weights of attributes of choice-based conjoint models change over a six months period for consumer durable products and the degree to which this variability is dependent on the nature of the product. It demonstrates that the change in weights is greater for products that have high technological complexity and shorter lifecycles and also links the changeability of weights to the characteristics of potential consumers. The results of thesis demonstrate that the assumption of constant weights can potentially lead to inaccurate market share forecast for high-tech, short life-cycle products that are launched several months after the choice-based modelling has been conducted.

"We address the problem of performing complex tasks for a robot operating in changing environments. We propose two approaches to the following problem: 1) define task-specific cost functions for motion planning that represent path quality by learning from an expert's preferences and 2) using constraint-based representation of the task inside learning from demonstration paradigm. In the first approach, we generate a set of paths for a given task using a motion planner and collect data about their features (path length, distance from obstacles, etc.). We provide these paths to an expert as a set of pairwise comparisons. We then form a ranking of the paths from the expert's comparisons. This ranking is used as training data for learning algorithms, which attempt to produce a cost function that maps path feature values to a cost that is consistent with the expert's ranking. We test our method on two simulated car-maintenance tasks with the PR2 robot: removing a tire and extracting an oil filter. We found that learning methods which produce non-linear combinations of the features are better able to capture expert preferences for the tasks than methods which produce linear combinations. This result suggests that the linear combinations used in previous work on this topic may be too simple to capture the preferences of experts for complex tasks. In the second approach, we propose to introduce a constraint-based description of the task that can be used together with the motion planner to produce the trajectories. The description is automatically created from the demonstration by performing segmentation and extracting constraints from the motion. The constraints are represented with the Task Space Regions (TSR) that are extracted from the demonstration and used to produce a desired motion. To account for the parts of the motion where constraints are different a segmentation of the demonstrated motion is performed using TSRs. The proposed approach allows performing tasks on robot from human demonstration in changing environments, where obstacle distribution or poses of the objects could change between demonstration and execution. The experimental evaluation on two example motions was performed to estimate the ability of our approach to produce the desired motion and recover a demonstrated trajectory."

The most widely cited European data on work hours mismatches at the couple level date back to the 1990s. The general gist of analyses of these data was that "overworked" dual-earner couples frequently preferred work hours reductions, especially those with childcare responsibilities. This study uses more recent data from the European Social Survey (2010-12) to update the available evidence on actual and preferred breadwinner models and on the occurrence and determinants of work hours mismatches among couples in Europe. The focus is on differences between demographic groups and countries in the degree to which cohabiting couples are either underemployed (working fewer hours than desired) or overemployed (working more hours than desired). Our analyses show that about one third of couples are underemployed, while only one in ten report being overemployed. We identify low education and the presence of children below school age as risk factors for underemployment, whereas highly educated women and fathers of teenagers tend to be overemployed. In a comparison of 16 European countries, we find couples in Greece, Ireland, Slovenia, and Spain to be most at risk of experiencing underemployment - in the countries that were most strongly affected by the recession. The effects of children on the experience of hours mismatches are found to vary across Europe - a particularly strong association of children below school age with parental underemployment is observed in Central and Eastern Europe, Finland, and Germany and a particularly weak one in Great Britain, Greece, Ireland, and Sweden.

Cette thèse étudie l’impact des normes de genre et des institutions sur les choix éducatifs, les décisions d’offre de travail et les préférences politiques. Dans le premier chapitre, nous nous intéressons à l’influence du genre des enfants sur les opinions de leurs pères en matière de droits des femmes. Nous montrons que la présence d’au moins une fille parmi les enfants est associée à des attitudes plus marquées contre l’avortement pour les pères de droite et inversement, plus favorables à l’avortement pour les pères de gauche. Nous développons un modèle théorique dans lequel les pères, qui ont des préférences paternalistes, ont tendance à adopter des positions politiques plus extrêmes lorsqu’ils ont une fille plutôt qu’un garçon. La partie empirique de l’analyse repose sur l’utilisation de deux nouvelles sources de données : une base biographique des députés français, et une enquête post-électorale au niveau européen. Nos résultats suggèrent que les filles polarisent les attitudes de leur père en matière de droit à l’avortement. Ces résultats réconcilient en partie les conclusions contradictoires des travaux récents sur l’influence des filles sur les opinions politiques de leurs pères. Le deuxième chapitre est issu d’un travail commun avec E. Duchini. Nous étudions les décisions d’offre de travail des femmes dans un contexte institutionnel qui limitait jusqu’à récemment leur capacité à bénéficier d’un emploi du temps régulier. Historiquement en France, les enfants en âge d’aller à l’école maternelle et primaire n’avaient pas classe le mercredi. Nous utilisons la réforme dites des rythmes scolaires comme « expérience naturelle ». Avant 2013, les femmes dont le plus jeune enfant était en âge d’aller à l’école élémentaire étaient deux fois plus nombreuses que les hommes à ne pas travailler le mercredi. Afin de mesurer la réaction de l’offre de travail des mères à la réforme, nous utilisons la variation de son application dans le temps et en fonction de l’âge du plus jeune enfant. Nos résultats montrent que la réforme a permis à un plus grand nombre de femmes de travailler le mercredi, entraînant, en moins de deux ans, une réduction d’un tiers de leur différentiel de participation ce jour de la semaine par rapport aux femmes du groupe de contrôle. Cet effet est essentiellement attribuable aux mères pour qui une présence régulière au travail est particulièrement profitable, comme celles qui travaillent à des postes d’encadrement. Le troisième chapitre présente les résultats d’une expérimentation avec assignation aléatoire conduite de septembre 2015 à février 2016 avec T. Breda, J. Grenet et M. Monnet. Cette expérimentation montre que l’intervention courte d’un modèle positif d’identification féminin (role model) peut influencer les attitudes des apprenants, et contribuer ensuite à modifier leur choix d’orientation. Dans un premier temps, nous présentons des éléments descriptifs sur les attitudes différenciées des filles et des garçons vis-à-vis des sciences, et sur l’importance des stéréotypes vis-à-vis des femmes dans les sciences chez les lycéens. A l’aide d’une assignation aléatoire des élèves dans un groupe traité et dans un groupe contrôle, nous étudions l’impact causal des modèles positifs d’identification sur les aspirations, les attitudes et les choix éducatifs. Ces modèles féminins extérieurs font baisser de manière significative la prévalence des visions stéréotypées associées aux métiers dans les sciences, tant chez les élèves filles que garçons. Le traitement n’a pas d’effet significatif sur le choix d’orientation des élèves de seconde, mais la proportion de filles qui s’orientent et sont admises en classe préparatoire scientifique après le lycée augmente de 3 points de pourcentage. Cet effet correspond à une augmentation de 30% par rapport à la moyenne du groupe de contrôle. Ces changements sont principalement attribuables aux élèves ayant les meilleurs résultats scolaires en mathématiques. / This dissertation examines the role of gender norms and institutions on human capital formation, labor supply, and political preferences. In the first chapter, I use both theoretical and empirical analysis to study the impact of offspring’s gender on their parental political beliefs toward gender issues. I examine the hypothesis that men’s political attitudes toward abortion do respond to the presence of a daughter, but differently according to their general political beliefs. This polarization effect of daughters means that the presence of a daughter is associated with more anti-abortion (respectively pro-abortion) views for right-wing (respectively left-wing) fathers. This argument is investigated in a simple economic model and its implications are studied empirically using two original datasets. The model predicts that fathers with paternalistic preferences adopt more extreme political positions when they have a daughter than when they have a son. The empirical investigation provides evidence of a polarization effect of daughters on fathers’ views on abortion. The magnitude of the effect corresponds to around 30% of the impact of right-wing political affiliation on abortion support. In the second chapter, together with E. Duchini, we investigate women’s employment decisions when institutions limit their chances of having a regular working schedule. We use a recent reform as a natural experiment to show that women do value flexibility when their children demand it. Before 2013, women whose youngest child was of primary school age were twice as likely as men not to work on Wednesdays. To measure mothers’ response, we exploit variations in the implementation of this policy over time and across the age of the youngest child. Our results show that, although mothers take advantage of the reform to close 1/3 of their initial gap in the probability of working on Wednesday with respect to the control group. This response seems to be driven by mothers who are more rewarded for a regular presence at work, such as those working in managerial positions. The third chapter reports the results of a large-scale randomized experiment showing that a light-touch, in-class intervention of external female role models, can influence students’ attitudes and contribute to a significant change in their choice of field of study. While the impact of peers and "horizontal exposure" on aspirations gained greater attention in the recent literature, surprisingly little is known about the impact of exposure to role models on students’ attitudes and schooling decisions. Together with T. Breda, J. Grenet and M. Monnet, we implemented and monitored a large-scale experiment in randomly selected high-school classes in France from September 2015 to February 2016. We first document gender differences in attitudes toward science, as well as the prevalence of stereotypical opinions with respect to women in science among high school students. Using random assignment of students to a one-hour intervention, we investigate the causal impact of role models on aspirations, attitudes, and educational investment. External female role models significantly reduce the prevalence of stereotypes associated to jobs in science, both for female and male students. Using exhaustive administrative data, we do not find significant effect of the treatment on the choices of year 10-students, but we show that the proportion of female students enrolled in selective science programs after high school graduation increases by 3 percentage points, which corresponds to a 30 percent-increase with respect to the baseline mean. These effects are essentially driven by high-achieving students.

The key underlying question of this dissertation is how individuals develop informed views about the open international economy and make informed decisions as consumers, workers and voters. Globalization has generated competing interest groups that are highly informed about its effects. Each of these groups can exploit its informational advantage and strategically provide information to less informed individuals in order to shape their policy preferences and economic and political behavior. Focusing on this informational discrepancy among domestic actors, this dissertation investigates the mechanisms and the effects of information dissemination from three different angles. The first chapter examines the role of product-related information provided by the news media, biased in favor of domestic firms, in shaping consumer behavior. In the second chapter, I examine the role of trade-related information provided by interest groups in altering the trade preferences of workers. In the third chapter, I examine the role of trade-related information provided by political elites in shaping their constituents' attitudes toward trade. These essays contribute to the extant international political economy literature by introducing an actor that has been largely neglected, illuminating new causal mechanisms with information at the center, and clarifying the causal effect of certain economic groups in trade policy preference formation.