Der Einfluss des Menschen verändert die Erdoberfläche in gravierendem Maße. Die Anwendung von Landnutzungsmodellen ist etabliert, um derartige Prozesse zu analysieren und um Handlungsempfehlungen für Entscheidungsträger zu geben. Landnutzungsmodelle stehen unter dem Einfluss von Unsicherheiten, welche beim Interpretieren der Ergebnisse berücksichtigt werden müssen. Dennoch gibt es wenige Ansätze, die unterschiedliche Unsicherheitsquellen mit ihren Interdependenzen untersuchen und ihre Auswirkungen auf die projizierte Änderung der Landschaft analysieren. Aus diesem Grund ist das erste Ziel dieser Arbeit einen systematischen Ansatz zu entwickeln, der wesentliche Unsicherheitsquellen analysiert und ihre Fortentwicklung zur resultierenden Änderungskarte untersucht. Eine andere Herausforderung in der Landnutzungsmodellierung ist es, die Eignung von Projektionen abzuschätzen wenn keine Referenzdaten vorliegen. Bayes’sche Netze wurden als eine vielseitige Methode identifiziert, um das erste Ziel zu erreichen. Darüber hinaus wurden die Modellierungsschritte „Definition der Modellstruktur“, „Auswahl der Eingangsdaten“ und „Weiterverarbeitung der Daten“ als wesentliche Unsicherheitsquellen identifiziert. Um das zweite Ziel zu adressieren wurde eine Auswahl an Maßzahlen entwickelt. Diese quantifizieren Unsicherheit mit Hilfe einer projizierten Änderungskarte und ohne den Vergleich mit Referenzdaten. Mit diesen Maßzahlen ist es zusätzlich möglich zwischen quantitativer und räumlicher Unsicherheit zu unterscheiden. Vor allem in räumlichen Anwendungen wie der Landnutzungsmodellierung ist diese Möglichkeit wertvoll. Dennoch kann auch ein absolut sicheres Modell gleichzeitig ein falsches und nutzloses Modell sein. Deswegen wird ein Ansatz empfohlen, der die Beziehung zwischen Unsicherheit und Genauigkeit in bekannten Zeitschritten schätzt. Die entwickelten Ansätze geben wichtige Informationen um die Eignung von modellierten Entwicklungspfaden der Landnutzung zu verstehen. / Human influence has led to substantial changes to the Earth’s surface. Land change models are widely applied to analyze land change processes and to give recommendations for decision-making. Land change models are affected by uncertainties which have to be taken into account when interpreting their results. However, approaches which examine different sources of uncertainty with regard to their interdependencies and their influence on projected land change are rarely applied. The first objective of this thesis is therefore to develop a systematic approach which identifies major sources of uncertainty and the propagation to the resulting land change map. Another challenge in land change modeling is the estimation of the reliability of land change predictions when no reference data are available. Bayesian Belief Networks were identified as a useful technique to reach the first objective. Moreover, the modeling steps of “model structure definition”, “data selection” and “data preprocessing” were detected as relevant sources of uncertainty. To address the second research objective, a set of measures based on probabilities were developed. They quantify uncertainty by means of a single predicted land change map without using a reference map. It is additionally possible to differentiate uncertainty into its spatial and quantitative components by means of these measures. This is especially useful in spatial applications such as land change modeling. However, even a certain model can be wrong and therefore useless. Therefore, an approach is suggested which estimates the relationship between disagreement and uncertainty in known time steps to use this relationship in future time steps. The approaches give important information for understanding the reliability of modeled future development paths of land change.

Ausgehend von einer kritischen Betrachtung der bekannten Meßverfahren zur Untersuchung von Halbleiteroberflächen wurde der Feldeffekt mit Sperrstrommessungen derart gekoppelt, dass gleichzeitig an dem Teil der Probe, der auf der Rückseite von einem in Sperr-Richtung vorgespannten pn-Übergang bedeckt ist, der Oberflächenleitwert und der Sperrstrom des pn-Übergangs gemessen werden. Der Sinn dieser Kopplung ist es, die Termanalyse gegenüber den bekannten Methoden zu verbessern. Die vorgenommene Erweiterung der Feldeffektuntersuchungen auf den stationären Nichtgleichgewichtzustand ermöglicht die direkte Messung der Aufspaltung des Ferminiveaus und damit die Bestimmung der Oberflächenrekombinationsgeschwindigkeit allein durch Oberflächenleitwertmessungen. Auch mit der Erweiterung der Sperrstromuntersuchungen, durch Messung der Sperrstromänderung bei Belichtung, ist es möglich, die Oberflächenrekombinationsgeschwindigkeit zu messen. Mit der entwickelten Apparatur wurde durch gleichzeitige Messung der Sperrstromänderungen und des Oberflächenleitwertes eine Verbreiterung der Sperrstromkurven verbunden mit einer Verschiebung des Sperrstrommaximums gegen das Leitwertminimum an CP-4-geätzten Germanium-Oberflächen beobachtet. Die Deutung dieser Erscheinung ermöglicht eine eindeutige Bestimmung des Energieniveaus des Rekombinationsterms und weist darauf hin, dass die Übergangswahrscheinlichkeiten des Rekombinationsterms keine Daten der Terme allein, sondern Daten der Terme und des Zustands der Oberfläche sind. Für die untersuchten, in CP-4-geätzten Oberflächen wurde die bei den Channeluntersuchungen gemachte Voraussetzung bestätigt, dass für die Terme in der oberen Hälfte der verbotenen Zone Cp/Cn > e2(Et – Ei)/kT gilt. Mit der entwickelten Methode zur Messung des Oberflächenleitwertes mit einem hochfrequenten Wechselstrom werden Verwehungseffekte der Ladungsträger vermieden. Durch die Parallelschaltung des ohmschen und des kapazitiven Leitwertes zwischen Inversionsschicht und Volumen werden weiterhin die Schwierigkeiten der Kontaktierung der Inversionsschicht umgangen. Einen solchen Kontakt herzustellen, ist besonders schwierig bei Halbleitern mit niedriger Intrinsic-Konzentration. Bei Silizium wurde diese Methode mit Erfolg angewendet. / Starting with a critical consideration of the well-established measurement procedures for the investigation of semiconductor surfaces, the field effect and the measurement of the reverse current have were linked in such a manner that the surface conductance and the reverse current could be measured simultaneously at that part of the specimen which was covered on the back side by a biased pn-junction. The use of this link-up is the improvement of the analysis of surface terms in comparison with the known methods. The implemented extension of the field effect measurements to the stationary non-equilibrium state allows the direct measurement of the split up of the Fermi level and in this way the determination of the surface recombination velocity by measurements of the surface conductance solely. Also with an extension of the measurements of the reverse current, by measuring the change in reverse current due to illumination, it is possible to determine the surface recombination velocity. By a simultaneous measurement of the changes in reverse current and the surface conductance with the developed apparatus it could be observed a broadening of the reverse current curve in conjunction with a shift of the reverse current maximum versus the conductance minimum on germanium surfaces etched with CP-4.The interpretation of this effect allows an unique determination of the energy level of the recombination term and points to the fact that the transient probabilities of the recombination term are not data of the term itself but data of the term and the state of the surface. By the investigations of the surfaces etched in CP-4, the requirements have been confirmed which were made in channel investigations that for the terms in the upper half of the forbidden zone it is Cp/Cn >e2(Et – Ei)/kT. With the developed method for the measurement of the surface conductance using a high frequency alternating current sweep out effects of the charge carriers can be avoided. Furthermore, by the shunt circuit of the ohmic and the capacitive conductance between the inversion layer and the bulk the difficulties in contacting the inversion layer will be avoided. The production of such a contact is especially difficult for semiconductors with a low intrinsic concentration. This method has been successfully applied to silicon.

The focus of this thesis is to statistically model violent crime rates against population over the years 1960-2009 for the United States. We approach this question as to be of interest since the trend of population for individual states follows different patterns. We propose here a method which employs cubic spline regression modeling. First we introduce a minimum/maximum algorithm that will identify potential knots. Then we employ least squares estimation to find potential regression coefficients based upon the cubic spline model and the knots chosen by the minimum/maximum algorithm. We then utilize the best subsets regression method to aid in model selection in which we find the minimum value of the Bayesian Information Criteria. Finally, we preent the R2adj as a measure of overall goodness of fit of our selected model. We have found among the fifty states and Washington D.C., 42 out of 51 showed an R2adj value that was greater than 90%. We also present an overall model of the United States. Also, we show additional applications our algorithm for data which show a non linear association. It is hoped that our method can serve as a unified model for violent crime rate over future years. / by Eric David Golinko. / Thesis (M.S.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2012. / Includes bibliography. / Electronic reproduction. Boca Raton, Fla., 2012. Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2018-07-30T12:25:10Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcelo Rivelino Rodrigues.pdf: 4565631 bytes, checksum: 768cc5f53630e3bfa212a133d70cbecf (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-30T12:25:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcelo Rivelino Rodrigues.pdf: 4565631 bytes, checksum: 768cc5f53630e3bfa212a133d70cbecf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-04-16 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Probabilistic knowledge is relevant to life in society, since well-founded decision-making can help provide a competitive edge both in the labor market and daily life. The present study investigated the conceptions of probability and randomness held by basic education teachers when faced with questions that address these topics. Data were collected from 41 sixth- do ninth-grade Brazilian teachers who responded to “Probabilistic Concepts Questionnaire”, applied to reveal the conceptions of probability held by the group. The multidimensional data were interpreted by subjecting the teachers’ responses to implicative and cohesive analysis, using Hierarchical, Implicative, and Cohesive Classification (CHIC) software, which yielded cohesion and implication graphs of the relationships operating among the variables investigated. The categorizations delineated by Azcárate and Cardeñoso for conceptions of probability, as well as the definition of probabilistic literacy formulated by Gal, provided the theoretical framework for the study. Two official educational guidelines—the Brazilian Curricular Guidelines (locally referred to as PCN) and the Brazilian Common Curricular Basis (BNCC)—were compared to detect similarities and pinpoint changes made to these documents with regard to the teaching of probability in basic education. In addition, Chevallard’s Anthropological Theory of the Didactic was employed to identify the types of tasks, techniques, and theories present in a mathematics textbook series approved by the National Textbook Program (PNLD). The analysis evidenced the probabilistic conceptions held by the participants, in the dimensions of randomness and probability. Four groups were identified in each dimension. Dimension randomness: deterministic; causality; multiplicity; uncertainty. Probability dimension: indefinite; causality; deterministic; uncertainty; subjectivity. The analysis evidenced the probabilistic conceptions held by the participants, in the dimensions of randomness and probability. In the randomness dimension, six groups of conceptions were identified: determinism; causality; multiplicity; uncertainty; standard; undefined. The probability dimension comprised five groups: causality; determinism; uncertainty; contingency; personalist. The investigation shed light on the conceptions of probability held by the participants, allowing probabilistic literacy levels to be categorized / Os conhecimentos probabilísticos mostram-se relevantes na vida em sociedade, pois cada vez mais as tomadas de decisão criteriosas apresentam-se como um dos diferenciais no mercado de trabalho, bem como em nosso dia a dia. Por esta razão, esta pesquisa teve como objetivo analisar as concepções de probabilidade e aleatoriedade de professores que atuam no ensino básico, quando estes se defrontam com questões que envolvem tais temas. Para a coleta de dados, aplicou-se o instrumento de pesquisa “Questionário de Concepções Probabilísticas”, a 41 professores do ensino fundamental II (6º ao 9º ano), visando identificar as concepções probabilísticas apresentadas por este grupo. Como metodologia, optou-se pela análise de dados multidimensionais, aplicando-se análise implicativa e coesitiva às respostas dos professores, utilizando software de Classificação Hierárquica, Implicativa e Coesitiva (CHIC), que gerou grafos de coesão e de implicação das relações entre as variáveis observadas. Para fundamentar o estudo, apoiamo-nos nas categorizações de concepções probabilísticas de Azcárate e de Cardeñoso e na definição de letramento probabilístico proposta por Gal. No desenvolvimento da pesquisa, foram analisados documentos oficiais como os Parâmetros Curriculares Nacionais (PCN) e Base Nacional Comum Curricular (BNCC) para observação de semelhanças, e possíveis evoluções na passagem do 1º para o 2º documento, no que tange às orientações para a abordagem do tema probabilidade no ensino básico. Também se analisou uma coleção de livros didáticos aprovada pelo Programa Nacional do Livro Didático (PNLD), com o objetivo de identificar, à luz da Teoria Antropológica do Didático, os tipos de tarefas, técnicas, tecnologias e teorias presentes nas atividades propostas na coleção. As análises permitiram identificar as concepções probabilísticas que emergiram dos participantes, nas dimensões aleatoriedade e probabilidade. Na dimensão aleatoriedade seis grupos foram identificados: determinista; causalidade; multiplicidade; incerteza; padrão; indefinidos. A dimensão probabilidade compreendeu cinco grupos: causalidade; determinista; incerteza; contingência; personalista. Destaca-se, ainda, que as análises possibilitaram categorizar os níveis de letramento probabilístico

Esta tese aborda o problema de regulação para sistemas lineares sujeitos a saltos Markovianos de tempo discreto com matrizes de transição incertas. Considera-se que as incertezas são limitadas em norma e os estados da cadeia de Markov podem não ser completamente observados pelo controlador. No cenário com observação completa dos estados, a solução é deduzida com base em um funcional quadrático dado em termos das probabilidades de transição incertas. Enquanto que no cenário sem observação, a solução é obtida por meio da reformulação do sistema Markoviano como um sistema determinístico, independente da cadeia de Markov. Três modelos são propostos para essa reformulação: um modelo é baseado no primeiro momento do sistema Markoviano, o segundo é obtido a partir da medida de Dirac e resulta em um sistema aumentado, e o terceiro fornece um sistema aumentado singular. Os reguladores recursivos robustos são projetados a partir de critérios de custo quadrático, dados em termos de problemas de otimização restritos. A solução é derivada da técnica de mínimos quadrados regularizados robustos e apresentada em uma estrutura matricial. A recursividade é estabelecida por equações de Riccati, que se assemelham às soluções dos reguladores clássicos, para essa classe de sistemas, quando não estão sujeitos a incertezas. / This thesis deals with regulation problem for discrete-time Markovian jump linear systems with uncertain transition matrix. The uncertainties are assumed to be normbounded type. The states of the Markov chain can not be completely observed by the controller. In the scenario with complete observation of the states, the solution is deduced based on a quadratic functional given in terms of uncertain transition probabilities. While in the scenario without observation, the solution is obtained from reformulation of the Markovian system as a deterministic system, independent of the Markov chain. Three models are proposed for the reformulation process: a model is based on the first moment of the Markovian system, the second is obtained from Dirac measure which results in an augmented system, and the third provides a singular augmented system. Recursive robust regulators are designed from quadratic cost criteria given in terms of constrained optimization problems. The solution is derived from the robust regularized least-square approach, whose framework is given in terms of a matrix structure. The recursiveness is established by Riccati equations which resemble the solutions of standard regulators for this class of systems, when they are not subject to uncertainties.

Notre recherche s’intéresse aux déterminants affectifs et axiologiques du choix d’investissement en equity crowdfunding. Nous défendons la thèse d’un choix de projets déterminé en partie par les valeurs et l’affectif de l’investisseur individuel. Notre revue de littérature est transversale à plusieurs champs des sciences sociales. Ainsi, le cadre théorique établi articule finance, marketing, GRH et psychologie. Un modèle explicatif par équations structurelles est proposé puis testé empiriquement grâce aux données d’une expérimentation de laboratoire. Nos résultats confirment que les valeurs ainsi que l’intérêt pour le projet, une variable affective, ont un effet sensible dans les choix des investisseurs et dominent le jugement analytique en l’absence d’interactions sociales réelles et virtuelles. Une théorie originale est proposée pour améliorer la compréhension du phénomène étudié, au-delà des apports de la théorie du signal. Cette théorie, le matching affectif, personnalise les comportements et offre un prisme de lecture reposant sur la congruence entre caractéristiques du projet et préférences de l’investisseur. Sa mise en œuvre par un modèle dérivant du modèle explicatif associé à une mesure de similarité ad hoc produit des résultats prédictifs encourageants. Notre travail se termine par un ensemble de suggestions managériales découlant de nos conclusions / Our research focuses on the emotional and axiological determinants of investment choice in equity crowdfunding. We defend the thesis of a projects choice determined in part by the values and emotions of the individual investor. Our literature review is transversal to several fields of social sciences. Thus, the established theoretical framework articulates finance, marketing, HRM and psychology. An explanatory model using structural equations is proposed and tested empirically using data from a laboratory experiment. Our results confirm that values and interest in the project, an affective variable, have a significant effect on investor choices and dominate analytical judgment in the absence of real and virtual social interactions. An original theory is proposed to improve the understanding of the studied phenomenon, beyond the contributions of the signal theory. This theory, emotional matching, personalizes behaviors and offers a prism of reading based on the congruence between characteristics of the project and investor preferences. Its implementation by a model derived from the explanatory model associated with an ad hoc similarity measure produces encouraging predictive results. Our work ends with a set of managerial suggestions arising from our findings.

Le thème principal de cette thèse est l'analyse statistique de surfaces. Nous introduisons un formalisme pour l'étendre dans un cadre aléatoire la représentation des surfaces introduite par Glaunès et Vaillant (2005). Ce formalisme repose sur une notion de forme linéaire aléatoire définie sur des espaces de champs vectoriels, qui est inspirée de la théorie des processus linéaires généralisés développé par Itô (1954) et Gelfand et Vilenkin (1964). A partir de cette représentation, nous mettons en place un modèle probabiliste décrivant la variabilité des surfaces. Par passage du continu au discret, nous prolongeons ce dernier en un modèle d'observation permettant de décrire des données expérimentales. A partir de ce modèle, nous construisons des estimateurs du représentant moyen d'un échantillon de surfaces et de l'autocovariance du bruit. Nous démontrons des résultats de consistance de ces estimateurs. Nous présentons quelques expériences de validation de la méthode d'estimation sur des données simulées. Nous appliquons cette méthode à la classification de surfaces cérébrales issues de l'IRM en nous plaçant dans un cadre bayésien / The main topic of this manuscript is surface statistic analysis. We define a new formalism that extends to a random framework the surface representation introduced by Glaunès and Vaillant (2005). This formalism is based on a notion of random linear form, which is inspired from the theory of generalized random process, developped by Itô (1954) and Gelfand and Vilenkin (1964). On this representation, we set a probabilistic model that describes the variability of surfaces ; by a transition from continuous to discrete, we extend it to an observation model that describes experimental data. We build estimators for the mean representant of a surface sample and for the autocovariance of the noise. We demonstrate that these estimators are consistent. We report some experiments in which we test our estimation method on simulated data. We apply our statistical framework to classification of brain surfaces from MRI, using a Bayesian classification procedure

We have considered the problem in which a biased sample is selected from a finite population, and this finite population itself is a random sample from an infinitely large population, called the superpopulation. The parameters of the superpopulation and the finite population are of interest. There is some information about the selection mechanism in that the selection probabilities are linearly related to the measurements. This is typical of establishment surveys where the selection probabilities are taken to be proportional to the previous year's characteristics. When all the selection probabilities are known, as in our problem, inference about the finite population can be made, but inference about the distribution is not so clear. For continuous measurements, one might assume that the the values are normally distributed, but as a practical issue normality can be tenuous. In such a situation a transformation to normality may be useful, but this transformation will destroy the linearity between the selection probabilities and the values. The purpose of this work is to address this issue. In this light we have constructed two models, an ignorable selection model and a nonignorable selection model. We use the Gibbs sampler and the sample importance re-sampling algorithm to fit the nonignorable selection model. We have emphasized estimation of the finite population parameters, although within this framework other quantities can be estimated easily. We have found that our nonignorable selection model can correct the bias due to unequal selection probabilities, and it provides improved precision over the estimates from the ignorable selection model. In addition, we have described the case in which all the selection probabilities are unknown. This is useful because many agencies (e.g., government) tend to hide these selection probabilities when public-used data are constructed. Also, we have given an extensive theoretical discussion on Poisson sampling, an underlying sampling scheme in our models especially useful in the case in which the selection probabilities are unknown.

Este estudo visa compreender a adequação dos rendimentos às necessidades e condições de vida dos brasileiros. Observando os dados da Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares (POF) realizada pelo IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística) para o período: 2008 e 2009, o estudo identifica um modelo que se concentra na investigação sobre o fato de 75% dos domicílios brasileiros declararem dificuldades orçamentárias. Para desenvolver um modelo, foi utilizada a percepção declarada e subjetiva de adequação da renda, informada pelo chefe de família ou pessoa de referência no domicílio. O referencial teórico baseia-se no comportamento do consumidor e foca nos recursos econômicos. O método quantitativo foi desenvolvido com Inteligência Artificial, mais especificamente Redes Bayesianas. Redes Bayesianas são estruturas em forma de grafos onde as distribuições de probabilidade são representadas por nós ligados por arcos acíclicos, que podem representar ou não relações causais entre as variáveis. No final pretende-se contribuir para o conhecimento e melhoria no desenho de políticas públicas e para as empresas em geral, dando um panorama sobre o que afeta as dificuldades das famílias, proporcionando uma visão que vai além da tradicional divisão de classes econômicas. / This study aims to understand the adequacy of Brazilians´ income to their needs and living conditions. According to the data from the Household Budget Survey (POF) conducted by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) for the years of 2008 - 2009, the study identifies a model which focuses on the investigations about the fact that 75% of Brazilian households reported budgetary difficulties. To develop a model, was used the perceived adequacy of income declared by the householder or reference person in the household. The theoretical framework was based on consumer behavior and focuses on economic resources. The quantitative method was developed by Artificial Intelligence, specifically Bayesian Networks. Bayesian Networks are structures in the form of graphs for which the probability distributions are represented by nodes connected by acyclic arcs, which may or may not represent causal relationships between variables. At the end we intend to contribute to knowledge and improvement in the design of public policies and business in general, giving a more detailed look at what affects the difficulties of families, providing a vision that goes beyond the traditional division of economic classes.

Ouro Preto é uma cidade histórica reconhecida como patrimônio histórico da humanidade pela UNESCO, que tem um passado de intensa exploração mineral e construções sem nenhum planejamento e critério desde 1680. Recentemente, várias ocorrências de escorregamento, quedas e outros movimentos gravitacionais de massa têm ocorrido na área. A ocorrência dos movimentos gravitacionais de massa é atribuída às chuvas associadas aos fatores predisponentes e modificadores que existem na área. Observa-se que o grande problema não é a magnitude desses processos, mas sim a freqüência com que eles ocorrem. Neste contexto, apresenta-se neste trabalho a previsão de movimentos gravitacionais de massa na Serra de Ouro Preto a partir de árvore de eventos. A avaliação probabilística é realizada a partir de árvore de eventos, para que valores quantitativos sejam atribuídos a cada atributo. Por meio desta análise, é possível se obter uma previsão quantitativa dos possíveis hazards e problemas que podem ser esperados na região. Cada tipo de movimento gravitacional de massa é composto por uma seqüência condicionada de atributos que deve ser considerada, e para cada um deles, a probabilidade de ocorrência foi estabelecida considerando os aspectos probabilísticos. A probabilidade de cada atributo foi determinada pela freqüência relativa do atributo no cenário (análise unidimensional) e a sua intensidade (análise bidimensional). Conclui-se que os principais processos de movimentos gravitacionais de massa que ocorrem na área são classificados como escorregamentos translacionais (em rocha e em material inconsolidado), rolamentos (em rocha, detritos e em blocos de rocha), corridas, quedas (em rocha, blocos de rocha e em material inconsolidado), escoamentos (em detritos e em material inconsolidado), complexo (em rocha e em material inconsolidado) os quais apresentam-se ativos (todos sem nenhuma exceção). Quanto aos valores de probabilidades calculados para os processos de movimentos gravitacionais de massa, obteve-se valores de 1 a 17 porcento, resultando num período de retorno de 50 a 5 anos. Estes valores permitem caracterizar a área como uma zona perigosa e potencialmente perigosa. / Ouro Preto is a historical city that enjoys the World Heritage Landmark Status as granted by UNESCO, and has a history of heavy mining and rampant unstructured housing dating back to 1680. Recently there have been many occurrences of landslides, rock fall and other landslide hazards. The effects of rainfall events associated with predisposing and modifying factors that exist in the area are attributed to the occurrence of landslides. It should be noted that the biggest problem is not the magnitude of these hazards, but the frequency with they occur. Thus, the assessment of landslide processes in Ouro Preto is presented through event tree form. The probabilistic analysis is performed in an event tree form in order to give quantitative values for every attribute. Such analysis allows a quantitative prediction of the possible hazards and problems that can be expected in the region. Every type of landslide process has a conditional sequence of attributes that must be taken into account and for every kind of attribute the probability of occurrence is established through probabilistic aspects. The probability of every attribute is identified by its relative frequency in the scenario (one-dimensional analysis) and the intensity (two-dimensional analysis). It was possible to conclude that the main landslide processes that occur in the area are classified as translational slides, bouncing or rolling, quickly flows, falls, flows and complex and all the processes are currently active. Concerning the probability values that were calculated for the landslide processes, a range from 1 to 17 percent, they resulted in a return period from 50 to 5 years. These values allow characterizing the area as a dangerous to a potentially dangerous zone.