Degree thesis deals with behavioral finance with a focus on behavior and psychology of an individual investor. The first part is devoted to the prospect theory that is a descriptive model of behavior of economic agents under the conditions of uncertainty and stands in a stark contrast with the traditional normative expected utility theory. The second part is devoted to the group of behavioral biases that are distortions of human thinking and judgment documented by cognitive psychology. These biases are difficult to eliminate and lead to a biased perception, inaccurate judgments and illogical interpretations. The third and final part is devoted to a questionnaire survey whose goal was to find out whether financial market participants behave according to the axioms of the expected utility theory or whether they systemically deviate from the axioms of this normative theory. The second goal of the survey was to confirm or disprove inferences of academic studies about existence of behavioral biases.

Este estudo investiga a ocorrência o Efeito Certeza, Efeito Reflexo e Excesso de confiança, das Finanças Comportamentais, na análise da tomada de decisão dos investidores institucionais de títulos de securitização, compostos por CRI (Certificado de Recebíveis Imobiliários), CRA (Certificado de Recebíveis do Agronegócio) e cotas de FIDC (Fundo de Investimento em Direito Creditório). A Teoria Moderna de Finanças não mais se apresenta como suficiente diante das anomalias existentes no mercado e, devido a isto, as Finanças Comportamentais apresentam-se como um complemento, explicando a atitude do investidor diante de uma situação de risco. Para tanto, foi realizado um estudo de caso com quatro investidores institucionais em títulos de securitização no ano de 2017. Foi aplicado um questionário que identifica a presença ou não do efeito certeza, efeito reflexo, e excesso de confiança. Foi constatado que as quatro empresas não apresentaram o Efeito Reflexo e não apresentam o Excesso de Confiança, sendo apresentado apenas o Efeito Certeza nestas empresas. Os resultados contribuem para uma melhor compreensão do investidor institucional nos títulos de securitização, que são considerados ainda recentes no mercado brasileiro. / This study investigates the occurrence of the Certainty Effect, Reflection Effect and Overconfidence of Behavioral Finances in the analysis of the decision-making of institutional investors in securities, composed of CRI (Certificate of Real Estate Receivables), CRA Agribusiness) and quotas of FIDC (Investment Fund in Credit Right). The Modern Finance Theory no longer presents itself as sufficient in the face of the existing market anomalies and, because of this, the Behavioral Finances are a complement, explaining the attitude of the investor in the face of a risk situation. For that, a case study was carried out with four institutional investors in securitization in the year 2017. A questionnaire was applied that identifies the presence or not of the certainty effect, reflex effect, and overconfidence. It was verified that the four companies did not present the Reflex Effect and did not present the Overconfidence, only being presented the Certainty Effect in these companies. The results contribute to a better understanding of the institutional investor in securitization securities, which are still considered recent in the Brazilian market.

[pt] Este trabalho tem o objetivo de aplicar os conceitos das Finanças Comportamentais (FC) através da Teoria do Prospecto na tomada de decisões de investidores no Brasil. Os primeiros estudos publicados sobre o tema são datados de 1979, feitos por Daniel Kahneman e Amos Tversky. As Finanças comportamentais surgem para contestar a Hipótese dos Mercados Eficientes (HME), na qual os investidores são completamente racionais e que, no processo de tomada de decisão, são capazes de analisar a totalidade dos dados disponí­veis e que todos os agentes do mercado possuem o mesmo número de informações. Este novo modelo incorpora aspectos da psicologia e da sociologia na busca de uma maior compreensão do processo decisório no mercado financeiro. O presente estudo replicou o questionário do artigo seminal de Kahneman e Tversky (1979) em 40 pessoas que trabalham ou já trabalharam no mercado financeiro. Para análise destes dados foram realizadas comparações com os resultados encontrados por Kahneman e Tversky (1979), Cruz, Kimura e Krauter (2003) e Rogers, Securato, Ribeiro e Araújo (2007). A amostra estudada indica que os decisores tendem a serem avessos ao risco no campo dos ganhos e propensos aos riscos no campo das perdas. / [en] The present study aims to apply the concepts of Behavioral Finance (BF) using the Prospect Theory in decision-making by investors in Brazil. The first published studies on the topic are from 1979, by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The Behavioral Finance emerged to contest the Efficient Capital Market (EFM) Theory, where investors are thought to act rationally in the process of decision-making, taking into account all available data, and financial agents share the same information. This new model intertwines psychological and sociological aspects seeking a greater understanding in financial decision-making. The present study applied the same questionnaire used by Kahneman & Tversky (1979) in their seminal paper to 40 subjects, working on or retired from the financial market. In the data analysis, results were compared to those of Kahneman & Tversky (1979); Cruz, Kimura & Krauter (2003); and Rogers, Securato, Ribeiro & Araújo (2007). From our analysis we find that investors run from taking risks while generating gains and are prone to assume those risks while losing capital.

As descobertas relacionadas à neurociência e aos métodos de coleta e análise de dados neurofisiológicos têm fomentado discussões sobre a aplicação desses aspectos em outras campos do conhecimento, dentre eles, o da comunicação. Este estudo tem como objetivo identificar e aferir processos neurais associados à avaliação emocional positiva e negativa de campanhas de segurança no trânsito, de modo a relacioná-los aos apontamentos trazidos pela Prospect Theory (ou Teoria Prospectiva), de que as pessoas tendem a responder de modo diferente ao se alterar apenas a forma de apresentação de um mesmo problema. Tal fato é especialmente importante na comunicação de riscos, em que são frequentemente utilizadas abordagens emocionais negativas como forma de discurso persuasivo. Deste modo, fez-se uma aplicação desses pressupostos ao campo da comunicação, sendo elaboradas duas campanhas experimentais de segurança no trânsito: uma contendo uma perspectiva emocional negativa e outra contendo uma perspectiva emocional positiva. Essas campanhas foram apresentadas em laboratório a 24 voluntários, os quais tiveram sua atividade cortical aferida pelo eletroencefalograma (EEG) e analisada do ponto de vista quantitativo e qualitativo, a fim de verificar uma assimetria frontal hemisférica de ondas alfa e teta nas duas condições, sugerida pela literatura como sendo atrelada a processos emocionais positivos e negativos. Como principais resultados, destacam-se a ocorrência de processos assimétricos significativos tanto na comparação entre as condições (i) neutra e negativa como nas condições (ii) neutra e positiva e (iii) positiva versus negativa, resultados que variaram conforme método de análise empregado. Em termos conclusivos, nota-se a verificação dos processos assimétricos previstos na literatura, porém, com grande variabilidade de amplitude e ocorrência no tempo entre os indivíduos, indicando que a metodologia de coleta com o EEG pode constituir uma forma complementar, e não isolada, de investigação dos processos comunicacionais em relação aos métodos tradicionais de pesquisa qualitativa e quantitativa empregados no campo da comunicação. / The findings related to neuroscience and methods of collection and analysis of neurophysiological data have encouraged discussions on the implementation of those aspects in other fields of knowledge, including communication. This study aims to identify and assess neural processes associated with positive and negative emotional evaluation of traffic safety campaigns, in order to relate them to the Prospect Theory considerations, that people tend to respond differently by changing only the presentation of the same problem. This fact is especially important in the risk communication scenario, which often uses the negative approach as a form of persuasive discourse. Thus, there was an application of these assumptions to the field of communication: two traffic safety campaigns were made: one containing a negative emotional perspective and another containing a positive emotional outlook. These campaigns were presented to 24 subjects in the laboratory, which had their cortical activity measured by electroencephalography (EEG) and analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively, in order to verify a frontal asymmetry of alpha and theta bands in both conditions, suggested by the literature as being linked to positive and negative emotional processes. The main results highlight the occurrence of significant asymmetric activation both in the comparison between (i) neutral and negative conditions as (ii) neutral and positive conditions and (iii) positive versus negative, results that varied according to method of analysis employed. In conclusive terms, there was a verification of asymmetric process verified in the literature, however, with notable variability in amplitude and occurrence in time between individuals, indicating that the methodology of EEG can complement, not in an isolated form, investigations of communication processes in relation to traditional methods of qualitative and quantitative research in the communication field.

O efeito disposição, originalmente proposto por Shefrin e Statman (1985), preconiza que os investidores tendem a vender ações com lucro em um curto período de tempo e manter ações com prejuízo por um longo período de tempo. A despeito da ampla gama de evidências sobre o assunto, as razões que levariam os investidores a manifestar esse viés comportamental ainda é motivo de uma controvérsia importante entre motivações racionais e comportamentais. Neste trabalho, o objetivo foi testar duas motivações comportamentais concorrentes para explicar o efeito disposição: a teoria perspectiva e o viés da reversão à média. Para cumprir esse objetivo, foi feita uma análise das transações mensais de compra e venda de uma amostra de 51 fundos de investimento em ações brasileiros, no período de 2002 a 2008. A análise envolveu a estimação de dois modelos de regressão de variável dependente qualitativa. O primeiro consistiu em um modelo logit binário cujo propósito foi determinar a probabilidade de um gestor realizar um ganho ou uma perda de capital em razão de variáveis de retorno das ações. O segundo foi um modelo logit ordenado cujo objetivo foi verificar a existência de uma relação entre as variáveis de retorno e o volume monetário vendido das ações. Em ambos os modelos, os parâmetros estimados para as variáveis de retorno das ações foram interpretados como um coeficiente de disposição, sendo que a proposição desse coeficiente consistiu na principal contribuição da pesquisa. Os resultados dos modelos estimados trouxeram evidências de que a teoria perspectiva parece permear o processo decisório dos gestores dos fundos analisados. Já no caso da hipótese de que o efeito disposição é decorrente do viés da reversão à média, não foi possível corroborá-la com base nos resultados aqui relatados. / The disposition effect, originally proposed by Shefrin and Statman (1985), predicts that investors tend to sell winning stocks too soon and ride losing stocks too long. Despite the wide range of research evidence about this issue, the reasons that lead investors to act this way is still subject to much controversy between rational and behavioral explanations. In this thesis, the main goal was to test two competing behavioral motivations to justify the disposition effect: prospect theory and mean reversion bias. To achieve this goal, an analysis of monthly transactions for a sample of 51 Brazilian stock funds from 2002 to 2008 was conducted. The analysis involved the estimation of two regression models with qualitative dependent variable. The first one consisted of a binary logit model whose purpose was to set the probability of a manager to realize a capital gain or loss as a function of the stock return. The second one was an ordered logit model whose objective was to verify the existence of a relationship between stock returns and the monetary volume sold. In both models, the estimated parameters for the stock return variables were interpreted as a disposition coefficient and the proposition of this coefficient was the main contribution of the research. The results of the estimated models brought evidence that prospect theory seems to guide the decision making process of the managers of the analyzed funds. The hypothesis that the disposition effect is due to mean reversion bias could not be confirmed based on the results reported here.

Extensive studies show that risk has a large impact on investment decisions. In addition, studies also show that risk behavior varies between men and women, where women tend to behave more risk averse. The purpose of this study is to examine how private investors make their investment decisions under risk but also to see if there are differences between men and women. The methods used in this research consists of a web survey that has been distributed via social media and interviews, to hear how private investors reason about investment decisions. The result from the web survey show that age and income does not affect investment decisions or their risk behavior. Neither does their own assessed willingness to take risk or knowledge in investments. The women in this research consider themselves to be more risk averse than men. However, when testing for their actual risk behavior, results show that women take more risk than men. Therefore, there are differences in investment decisions between women and men. / Tidigare forskning visar på att risk har en stor betydelse vid investeringsbeslut. Vissa studier menar även på att det föreligger en skillnad i kvinnor och mäns riskbenägenhet, där kvinnor anses vara mer riskaverta än män. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur småsparare fattar sina investeringsbeslut under risk. Med hänsyn till tidigare studier har författarna även ett delsyfte att undersöka om och hur riskbenägenheten skiljer sig mellan kön. Studien har använt enkätundersökning samt intervjuer för att både ha tillgång till stora mängder data, men även för att fördjupa sig i det som enkäten inte kan besvara. Resultatet från enkätundersökningen visar att ålder och inkomst inte påverkar investeringsbeslut, samtidigt som intervjuerna säger det motsatta. Respondenternas självuppskattade riskbenägenhet och ansedda kunskap har heller ingen påverkan på deras investeringsbeslut. Kvinnorna i studien anger en lägre uppskattad riskbenägenhet än män samtidigt som de, i motsats till tidigare studier, agerar mer risksökande. Därmed föreligger det s

Submitted by (ana.araujo@ufrpe.br) on 2017-02-21T13:15:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Morganna Pollynne Nobrega Pinheiro.pdf: 878308 bytes, checksum: a4236d2ac8451c4536fac545f2b19b94 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-02-21T13:15:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Morganna Pollynne Nobrega Pinheiro.pdf: 878308 bytes, checksum: a4236d2ac8451c4536fac545f2b19b94 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-02-18 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The cotton crop is present in several sectors, from agriculture to the industry, generating about 70% of employment to level of primary production, putting the cotton as a major international commodities. The Brazil has been increasing in terms of production, currently the fifth largest world producer and exporter quarter. Despite this, the management of the crop is very high and the main costs for machinery and to control pests and diseases. With the advent of the current practices of modern biotechnology, biological strategies for the control of pests and diseases have been used, including the use of plants genetically modified to contain genes that defend these evils. These genes, often regulated by constitutive expression promoters provide protection throughout the plant, although the levels are different in appearance tissue. In this case, the use of tissue-specific promoters to drive the sequence codante allows more direct action to protect and lowest power plant to promote target protein. The cotton crop is vulnerable to various pests that affect the reproductive structures, especially lepidopters and coleopters. With a view to ascertaining genes expressed in flower buds to subsequently use them in the area of trangenics, a subtractive cDNA library from flower buds built.We generated 768 sequences, having been formed 168 clusters with 126 contigs and 42 singlets. The in silico analysis were performed against the database of cotton (CottonDB) and Bank of Arapidopisis thaliana (TAIR) and many genes have been identified. From this analysis we selected six genes related to the development of eggs, fibers, pollen tube and pistil (ANTIFIB010, ASH, OVU, FIB010, FIBEARLY and GLUCANASE) to studies of semiquantitative RT-PCR. The results showed that the selected genes are expressed in all tissues studied (button, stem, leaf and root), however we could observe a higher level of expression in flower buds. / A cultura do algodão está presente em vários setores, desde o agrícola até o industrial, gerando cerca de 70% de toda mão-de-obra em nível de produção primária. Isso coloca o algodão como uma das principais commodities internacionais. O Brasil vem se destacando no âmbito da produção, sendo atualmente o quinto maior produtor mundial e o quarto exportador. A despeito disso, o manejo da lavoura é muito elevado sendo os principais custos destinados com maquinários e controle de pragas e doenças. Com o advento das práticas atuais da biotecnologia moderna, estratégias biológicas visando o controle de pragas e doenças vêm sendo utilizadas, dentre elas o uso de plantas geneticamente modificadas expressando genes que a defendem desses males. Tais genes, frequentemente regulados por promotores de expressão constitutiva oferecem proteção em toda a planta, embora os níveis sejam diferenciados no aspecto tissular. Nesse caso, o uso de promotores tecido-específico para guiar a sequência codante possibilita ação mais direta de proteção e menor gasto de energia da planta para promover a proteína alvo. A lavoura do algodoeiro é vulnerável a várias pragas que incidem nas estruturas reprodutivas, especialmente lepidópteros e coleópteros. Com a finalidade de conhecer genes expressos nos botões florais, a fim de, posteriormente, utilizá-los na área de transgenia, uma biblioteca subtrativa de cDNA de botão floral construída. Foram geradas 768 sequências, tendo sido formado 168 agrupamentos com 126 singlets e 42 contigs. As análises in silico foram realizadas contra o banco de dados do algodão (CottonDB) e o banco de Arapidopisis thaliana (TAIR) e muitos genes foram identificados. A partir dessas análises foram selecionados seis genes relacionados ao desenvolvimento de óvulos, fibras, tubo polínico e pistilo (ANTIFIB010, ASH, OVU, FIB010, FIBEARLY e GLUCANASE) para estudos de RT-PCR semiquantitativo. Os resultados mostraram que os genes selecionados são expressos nos tecidos estudados (botão, haste, folha e raiz), no entanto pôde-se observar um maior nível de expressão nos botões florais.

Thesis deals with Prospect Theory and with its findings when making decisions under risk which is called four-fold pattern. In theoretical part is shortly mentioned the field of Behavioral finance and further described original Prospect Theory and also its modified version called Cumulative Prospect Theory. The main goal of the practical part is to confirm on the basis of questionnaire between different kinds of college graduates the four-fold pattern, identify between 3 segments differences and make the final conclusion whether the type of college education has an impact on four-fold pattern.

The Prospect Rock Fault (PRF) is key to our understanding of the regional tectonic evolution of Vermont during the Taconic, Salinic, and Acadian Orogenies, and may have played an important role in the exhumation of blueschist and eclogite-facies rocks in the Tillotson Peak Complex (TPC) during the Taconic Orogeny. The TPC is in the footwall of the PRF in the eastern limb of the Green Mountain Anticlinorium. In the TPC, the dominant foliation is S2 and E-W trending F2 folds parallel L2 stretching lineations, which trend orthogonal to regional N-S trending folds associated with the Taconic Orogeny. The PRF itself is folded by F2 folds. Presently, there is a lack of consensus about the role of the PRF in the exhumation of the TPC, and studies have not reconciled the formation of the E-W folds and lineations to a regional model. Oriented samples and structural data were collected from the footwall of the PRF over several transects. Samples were processed into orthogonal thin sections for microstructural analyses and for 40Ar/39Ar step heating of white mica. The dominant foliations in the PRF samples were identified through microstructural analysis and correlating the age of deformation as S2 and S3. These were defined in thin section by mica and quartz microlithons, and oriented mica grains. S1, and in some samples S2, are locally preserved in some mica domains and albite/garnet inclusion trails. S4 appears as crenulations of S3, with no significant new mineral crystallization. In the field, L2 and L3 lineations are defined by mineral and quartz rods, and L4 lineations are defined as intersection lineations on S2 surfaces. 40Ar/39Ar analyses yielded plateau ages ranging from 458.6 ± 2.0 Ma to 419.0 ± 2.4 Ma (1σ). The oldest plateau ages are just slightly younger, yet concordant, with published and new 40Ar/39Ar ages from the TPC and come from the structurally highest portions of the footwall in the northern part of the study area. Virtually all apparent age spectra show age gradients. Results from this study suggest the PRF played a role in exhumation of the TPC and ages obtained are closely aligned with deformation ages constrained from 40Ar/39Ar dating in southern Quebec for the Taconic D2 and Salinian D3 deformation. These dates may aid correlatation of ages and structures regionally and further refining of tectonostratigraphic models describing southern Quebec and New England.

ELABORATIONS ON MULTIATTRIBUTE UTILITY THEORY DOMINANCE By David L. Vairo A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at Virginia Commonwealth University. Virginia Commonwealth University, 2019. Major Director: Dissertation director’s name, Dr. Jason Merrick, Supply Chain Management and Analytics Multiattribute Utility Theory (MAUT) is used to structure decisions with more than one factor (attribute) in play. These decisions become complex when the attributes are dependent on one another. Where linear modeling is concerned with how factors are directly related or correlated with each other, MAUT is concerned with how a decision maker feels about the attributes. This means that direct elicitation of value or utility functions is required. This dissertation focuses on expanding the types of dominance forms used within MAUT. These forms reduce the direct elicitation needed to help structure decisions. Out of this work comes support for current criticisms of gain/loss separability that is assumed as part of Prospect Theory. As such, an alternative to Prospect Theory is presented, derived from within MAUT, by modeling the probability an event occurs as an attribute.