The purpose of this study is to find how managers make sense of a future threat that does not have an urgent trigger. The method applied in this study is qualitative case study. Nine semi-structured interviews were conducted of managers at the case company. In the context of the case company facing a threat of creative destruction, we study the sensemaking process of the managers we interview. Special focus is dedicated to prospective, future-oriented sensemaking. We apply a Weickian approach in the operationalization of the research. We found that the managers shared a collective sense of the past, but that there was a loss in shared collective sense of the future. The lack of collective sensemaking of the future is caused by the ambiguous nature of the case company’s future. We further found that emotional dedication impeded prospective sensemaking for some of the managers resembling wishful thinking about the future.

O município de Jundiaí ocupou a posição de liderança na produção vitivinícola paulista desde o início da chegada dos imigrantes italianos por volta de 1930 até 2008 quando a quantidade de uva produzida começou a cair. Diante desse contexto de queda de produção, os atores do setor começaram a se mobilizar na tentativa de reverter o quadro. Diversos fatores parecem ter contribuído para que a tentativa de retomada do crescimento da atividade vitivinícola paulista não tenha obtido o sucesso esperado para a região de Jundiaí. Considerando-se o aparente baixo desempenho do setor no contexto paulista e mesmo nacional, este trabalho de pesquisa foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de propor quatro cenários para a vitivinicultura em Jundiaí em 2030 (\"desaparecimento\", \"desafio constante\", \"produção incentivada\" e \"renascimento\"), gerando informações que possam apoiar a formulação de políticas públicas voltadas para esta tradicional atividade agrícola do Estado de São Paulo. Como parte do processo de elaboração de cenários, este trabalho também atingiu o objetivo secundário de verificar quais são os fatores determinantes da decisão do vitivinicultor em Jundiaí de continuar ou não na atividade.de São Paulo. / The city of Jundiaí occupied the leading position in the São Paulo State wine production since the arrival of Italian immigrants around 1930 until 2008 when the amount of grape produced began to fall. In this context of falling production, industry actors have begun to mobilize in an attempt to reverse the situation. Several factors seem to have contributed for the attempted of Jundiaí region wine industry growth recovery not achieving the expected success. Considering the apparent poor performance of the sector within both national and São Paulo State context, this research was developed with the objective of proposing four scenarios with qualitative elements for the wine industry in Jundiaí in 2030 (\"disappearance\", \"constant challenge\", \"supported production\", \"rebirth\"), thus generating information that may support the formulation of public policies for this traditional agricultural activity of the São Paulo State. As part of the scenario development process and as secondary objective, this research has identified what are the determinants of Jundiaí vintner\'s decision to continue or not in the activity.

Por volta de meados desse século, haverá 40 megacidades no mundo, quase o dobro das 21 que temos hoje. Cerca de um quinto delas terão mais de 30 milhões de habitantes na sua região metropolitana. A imensa maioria dessas quatro dezenas de enormes aglomerados urbanos se formará em países emergentes, onde as condições de desenvolvimento humano e urbano são menos propícias que o desejável para receber, num espaço tão curto, o desafio de acomodar tamanho contingente de novos habitantes. Esse crescimento poderá trazer consequências não muito simples de serem dimensionadas. Mas é possível desenvolver cenários que permitam antever algumas dessas consequências, para auxiliar no processo de planejamento dos eventos futuros. Para conseguir atingir o objetivo de elaborar cenários que pudessem ser, além de visões sobre o futuro, ferramentas que permitissem ensaios, testes de hipóteses e novas formulações, a elaboração do modelo aqui descrito contou com recursos que vieram de duas metodologias bastante testadas, casos da Dinâmica de Sistemas e da técnica Delphi. O que se procurou fazer foi vencer, com a junção de partes de cada uma delas, as limitações que cada metodologia tem na sua base original. Da Dinâmica de Sistemas, procurou-se aproveitar da completude da análise da cadeia de fatos intervenientes e relações de causa e efeito, sem adotar integralmente a complexidade da sua estrutura total, muito necessária para a montagem de modelos para estudar determinados problemas, mas demasiadamente ampla para questões que necessitam de uma abordagem menos densa. Da técnica Delphi foi utilizada a sua prática de consultas sequenciais a grupos de especialistas, de modo a dar consistência ao processo de simplificação do conjunto de variáveis gerado, sem, no entanto, perder a possibilidade de simular novos cenários apenas com a alteração dos valores e pesos das variáveis, o que, pela característica da metodologia Delphi, só seria possível numa pesquisa inteiramente nova. O conjunto de cenários aqui descrito permite algumas conclusões importantes tanto sobre São Paulo quanto sobre as projetadas 40 megacidades de 2040. E a diversidade de análises possíveis, o número praticamente ilimitado de cenários que podem ser gerados, e a relativa simplicidade para se elaborar e utilizar o modelo proposto foram objetivos que se quis alcançar nesse trabalho. / By the middle of this century, there will be 40 megacities in the world, almost twice as the 21 we have today. About a fifth of them will have more than 30 million inhabitants in its metropolitan area. The vast majority of these 40 huge urban centers will be formed in emerging countries, where human and urban development conditions are less favorable than the desirable to receive in such a short space of time, the challenge of accommodating this great contingent of new inhabitants. This growth can bring not very simple consequences to be solved. But it is possible to develop scenarios which shows some of the possible consequences, to support the planning process of future events. To be able to achieve the goal of developing scenarios that could be not only visions of the future but also tools that allow experimenting and the test of hypothesis and new formulations, the preparation of the model described here had features that came from two very well tested methodologies: System Dynamics and Delphi technique. What was sought was to overcome the limitations that each method has its original basis with the joint of some of their parts. From System Dynamics, we took advantage of the analysis completeness of the chain of intervenient facts and cause-effect relationships without fully embrace the complexity of the overall structure, much needed for the assembly of models for studying certain problems, but too wide for questions that require a less dense approach. Delphi technique was used for the practice of sequential consultation with expert groups in order to give consistency to the set of variables on the simplification process generated, without, however, losing the possibility to simulate new scenarios only with the changing values and weights of the variables, which, by the feature of the Delphi methodology, would only be possible in a completely new search. The set of scenarios described here allows some important conclusions about both São Paulo and the projected 40 megacities of 2040. And the diversity of possible analyzes, a virtually unlimited number of scenarios that can be generated, and the relative simplicity to develop and use the proposed model were objectives that were presented on this work.

Au, Wing Cheong. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2011. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 114-148). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstract also in Chinese; some appendixes in Chinese.

Previous studies have shown negative effects of noise on cognitive performance. However,these effects on memory have been less examined. This study was set out to investigate theeffect of noise on working memory as well as prospective memory in an adult population.One experiment group comprised of university students approached at the Umeå UniversityCampus volunteered for this study (​N​=30, ​M​=24.26 years of age). A reversed digit spanmemory test and an event-based prospective memory test were used to measure workingmemory and prospective memory under silent and noise condition. Results showed thatparticipants had significantly poorer performance on working memory task in noise conditioncompared to silent condition but not for the prospective memory task. Keywords: working memory, prospective memory, noise / Tidigare studier har visat att buller kan ha negativa effekter på vår kognitiva prestation. Dessa effekter på minnet har dock undersökts i mindre skala. Denna studie hade för avsikt att undersöka effekten av buller på arbetsminnet såväl som prospektiva minnet hos den vuxna populationen. En experimentgrupp bestående av frivilliga universitet studenter frågades att delta från Umeå Universitets Campus i denna studie (N = 30, M = 24.26 år gamla). En reversed digit span test och en event-based prospective memory test användes för att mäta arbetsminne och prospektiva minnet under tyst och buller tillstånd. Resultaten visade att deltagarna hade en signifikant sämre prestanda på arbetsminnestestet i buller tillstånd jämfört med tyst tillstånd men inte på prospektiva testet.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T20:21:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Bernadete de Oliveira.pdf: 9001908 bytes, checksum: 5fe5469188e85fd48ffd88d87ee8a3a1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-04-25 / The present study was prompted by the question Who will look after us in 2030? . It was derived from an anthropological perspective and gradually evolved into sociopolitical questions. Research was developed as a quantitative, qualitative and prospective study carried out at the Regional Health Department 1 (DRS1) in the Greater São Paulo Area (covering all the municipalities in the São Paulo Metropolitan Region) between January 2011 and December 2012. The study relied on the recommendations set forth by the National Elderly Health Care Policy and the Book of Primary Care 19 published by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Study Objective: To investigate opinions from the São Paulo City Health Department (SMS) representatives and users at the City Health Council (CMS) and from elderly representatives at the Elderly Council (CMI) within the DRS1 about the initiatives undertaken in elderly health care so as to provide a consensual perspective on that question. Methodology and Results: In the first phase of the study, recorded face-to-face interviews and a mixed questionnaire were used with 109 subjects. The following council member categories were identified: users (n=37; 34.0%), managers (n=27; 24.8%), workers (n=12; 11.0%), as well as government (n=18; 16.5%) and civil society (n=15; 13.8%) segments predominantly within the age cohorts of 50 years and older, whereas females (n=57; 52.3%) and married individuals (n=70; 62.2%). The average education level is 13.3 years (±4.5); knowledge on elderly care by the majority of respondents comes from participation in related events. The standard response on the political role of council members was scattered with most subjects indicating a watchdog role. Decision-making to approve policies originating at different power levels was not even mentioned by respondents. In the second phase of the study, the Delphi Method was used and 51 subjects presented a prospective view and reached an opinion by consensus. Responses to the questionnaire were sent by e-mail. Respondents were thus categorized: 13 from the elderly group (72.2%), 14 from the SMS group (70.0%), 22 from the user group (73.3%). Statistical analysis of the findings revealed consensus on the following topics: elderly reception, global assessment, health education, what they like best about healthcare facilities, active aging, promotion of active aging, medium and high complexity health care, pharmaceutical care, elderly accessibility. In all groups, elderly people seek public healthcare services to have their prescription changed and medical treatment . Among the questions disregarded by respondents is the one about elderly services and actions deemed necessary... in which the SMS group unanimously responded that a support hospital for the elderly to recover and return home with independence and autonomy would not be necessary. With regard to skilled professionals trained to deliver elderly healthcare services and actions by 2030 , the SMS group was convinced that all healthcare professionals in public services would have to be trained . All groups agreed that they will need caregiving in old age, while the SMS elderly group wishes that my family and trained healthcare professionals would take care of me in old age... . Final Considerations: In the near future, City Councils are likely to become a powerful social participation tool, an instrument of achievement in the public sphere and of public policies that can satisfactorily meet the demands of the future, especially in old age. Furthermore, both the State and civil society require structural strengthening and organization, so that power can circulate in a decentralized manner and empowerment is established for the exercise of full citizenship of society members within a democratic perspective / Estudo norteado pela pergunta Quem cuidará de nós em 2030 , partiu de uma perspectiva antropológica e mergulhou, paulatinamente, em questionamentos sociopolíticos. Pesquisa definida como quantitativo, qualitativo e prospectivo, desenvolvido no Departamento Regional de Saúde 1 (DRS1): Grande São Paulo (100% dos municípios da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo), no período de janeiro de 2011 a dezembro de 2012. Ancorado nas recomendações da Política Nacional da Saúde do Idoso e do Caderno de Atenção Básica 19 , do Ministério da Saúde. Objetivo: investigar as opiniões de representantes da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde (SMS) e dos usuários, no Conselho Municipal de Saúde (CMS), e de representantes dos idosos, no Conselho Municipal do Idoso (CMI), no DRS1, a respeito de iniciativas na área de atenção à saúde do idoso, a fim de fornecer perspectivas consensuais àquela pergunta. Aporte Metodológico e Resultados: Na primeira etapa, Entrevista presencial gravada, utilizou-se o Questionário misto, participaram 109 sujeitos e foram identificadas as categorias de conselheiros: segmentos usuário (n=37; 34,0%), gestor (n=27; 24,8%) e trabalhador (n=12; 11,0%), do governo (n=18; 16,5%) e da sociedade civil (n=15; 13,8%); com predominância nas faixas etárias de 50 anos e mais de idade, no sexo feminino (n=57, 52,3%) e no estado civil casado (n=70; 62,2%); 13,3 anos de estudo (±4,5) em média; para a maioria que tem conhecimento na área do idoso, este advém da participação em eventos. O padrão de resposta sobre o papel político foi disperso, a maioria indicou a função de fiscalizador. A tomada de decisões para a aprovação de políticas originadas nos diferentes níveis de Poder não foi sequer mencionado por eles. Na segunda etapa, Método Delphi, 51 sujeitos chegarem a visão prospectiva e ao consenso de opiniões ao responderam formulários, via correio eletrônico; estes opinantes foram desta maneira classificados: 13 do grupo dos idosos (ou 72,2%), 14 do grupo da SMS (ou 70,0%), 22 do grupo dos usuários (ou 73,3%). Na análise estatística dos resultados detectou-se o consenso de opiniões em torno dos temas: acolhimento, avaliação global, educação em saúde, o que gostam nas unidades básicas de saúde, envelhecimento ativo, promoção do envelhecimento ativo, atendimento em média e alta complexidades, assistência farmacêutica, acessibilidade. Para todos os grupos, os idosos buscam serviços de saúde para troca de receita e encaminhamentos . Das respostas preteridas ( voto nulo ), destaca-se aquela a respeito dos serviços e ações considerados necessários... , o grupo da SMS, unanimemente, julgou que não deveria vir a ser instituído um hospital de retaguarda para o idoso se recuperar e voltar para casa com independência e autonomia . A respeito dos profissionais capacitados para desenvolver serviços e ações na atenção à saúde do idoso em 2030 , este mesmo grupo estava convicto acerca de que Todos os profissionais da rede pública precisariam ser capacitados . Todos os grupos admitiram que irão necessitar de cuidados na velhice; o grupo dos idosos e da SMS desejam Que minha família e profissionais capacitados cuidassem de mim... . Considerações finais: Os Conselhos Municipais podem vir a tornar-se, num futuro próximo, um poderoso instrumento de participação social, de consecução da esfera pública e daquelas políticas públicas que atenderiam de maneira satisfatória as demandas do devir, especialmente, da velhice. Neste ínterim, tanto Estado como sociedade civil demandam fortalecimento estrutural e organização, para que o poder circule de forma descentralizada e se estabeleça o empoderamento e o exercício da cidadania plena de seus membros, dentro de uma perspectiva democrática

O Franchising apresentou um crescimento expressivo no Brasil nas últimas duas décadas. O principal marco regulatório se deu com o advento da Lei 8.955 de 1994. Tal crescimento é expresso tanto em número de franquias instaladas, quanto na diversidade dos segmentos das mesmas. Em função disso, uma questão recorrente é justamente saber à qual franquia o pretenso franqueado deve aderir dada uma gama de opções colocada à sua disposição pelo mercado. Com o objetivo de auxiliar a solução desse problema, o presente trabalho propõe uma sistemática baseada no uso de método multicritério e simulação. Primeiramente são identificados tanto na literatura, quanto em coleta de informações provenientes de trabalhos de campo, os critérios balizadores da escolha de franquias. Posteriormente e com base nestes critérios, realizam-se análises de cunho econômico financeiro onde geram-se como produtos dois rankings: Um proveniente do uso de método de decisão multicritério e outro proveniente de avaliação rentabilidade-risco realizada através do uso de simulação. Assim, considerando semelhanças e diferenças entre esses dois rankings, um pretenso franqueado poderia, seguindo esta proposta de sistemática estruturada, optar pela adesão à franquia mais atraente. Essa é a principal contribuição de cunho prático. Já a principal contribuição de cunho acadêmico é suprir lacunas existentes na literatura, principalmente pelo fato de tratar o assunto franchising conjugado com o uso de métodos estatísticos e matemáticos. / In the last two decades franchising has grown significantly in Brazil. The main regulation mark occurred with the advent of 8.955/1994 Franchise Law. Such growth is expressed both in the number of franchises installed as well in the diversity of their segments. Accordingly, a recurring issue is the question to which franchise the prospective franchisee must choose considering a range of options at its disposal in the market. With the objective of helping to solve this problem, the present work proposes a system based on the use of multicriteria method and simulation. Firstly, the criteria for choosing franchises are identified both in the literature and in the collection of information from work fields. Subsequently, based on these criteria, economic and financial analysis is carried out where two rankings are generated as products: One deriving from the use of a multi-criteria decision method and the other one from a profitability-risk valuation carried out through the use of simulation. Thus, considering similarities and differences between these two rankings, a prospective franchisee could, following this proposal of structured system choose the most attractive franchise. This is the main practical contribution since the main benefit of academic nature is to fill gaps in the literature, mainly to deal with the franchising subject in conjunction with the use of statistical and mathematical methods.

Perception de l'espace et prospective territoriale sont deux notions rarement associées. dans ce domaine, les exercices sont généralement conduits à l'échelle d'une région ou d'une agglomération. Ici, ils sont réalisés à celle du quartier qui semble être le niveau le plus pertinent pour y intégrer la perception de l'individu. En effet, cet espace est le plus familier pour l'habitant : c'est son lieu de vie. Il dégage ainsi une symbolique lui permettant de s'y identifier et de lui attribuer des qualificatifs. Ces espaces sont ainsi connotés de façon positive ou négative. Cette valeur peut dépendre de la qualité de l'aménagement urbain proposé. À la Réunion, ce dernier s'est souvent caractérisé par des opérations correctives. Après la départementalisation en 1946, l'île connaît une véritable misère. L'ex-colonie tente alors de rattraper son retard par rapport à la métropole. L'urbanisation s'est donc considérablement emballée. Dés les années 1980, les villes s'étendent de façon tentaculaire avec une prolifération de la maison individuelle sur les mi-pentes et les hauteurs. L'exiguïté de l'île impose la densification du tissu urbain existant par de nouveaux types de construction. Or, ces changements dans l'habitat, dans le paysage, mais aussi dans les habitudes, sont brutaux pour les réunionnais. Dans ce contexte, il serait intéressant à relever l'impression qu'ils dégagent de leur environnement quotidien. En conséquence, on peut s'interroger sur la possibilité de s'appuyer sur l'étude de ces perceptions pour déterminer les futures organisations territoriales possibles dans la perspective d'un développement urbain durable et dans le cadre d'une gouvernance participative. / On Reunion Island, cities have extended for 20 years. This extension promoted the urban sprawl. Now on this area, only 20 % of lands are building. So, a balanced development is actually promoted. But, can we base on the inhabitants' perception to manage to do this harmonious development? The district area seems to be relevant to deal with this subject. This scale represents the neighbourhood, a basic element of the town. By basing on a lot of soundings, we know the inhabitants expectations and the regulations which constrain the leaders. Four our territorial foresight exercise, we examine the trend of three relevant variables: population, economic activities, environment (buildings, agriculture and parks). This variables are controlled at the same time by the leaders and the users which picture them. To coclude, it is only by balancing these two visions that can achieve a more coherent developmet that give satisfaction to the developers as well as users.

Background: It is often considered that, following paediatric acquired brain injury (pABI) and epilepsy, higher-level cognitive deficits, such as prospective memory (PM), are impaired and may only become apparent over time when these abilities are expected to develop and mature in a typically developing child. Interventions supporting PM have the potential to increase independence and enhance social participation. Despite research indicating PM difficulties in children and adolescents with pABI and epilepsy, and also in children with PM difficulties with unknown aetiology, currently, there is a limited evidence-base for interventions, although previous research has attempted to address this following pABI (Rous, 2011). Objective: The objective of this empirical paper was to build upon the work of Rous (2011) and optimise the effectiveness of brief metacognitive 'Remembering Goals' Training (RGT) and external content-free cueing (in the form of 'STOP' text messages) on PM task performance and the achievement of real-life goals. Method: The research employed a single-case series design with a randomised, alternating treatment (Barlow & Hayes, 1979). Eight participants (aged 10-15 years) completed the study. Three participants had an ABI, two participants had epilepsy, and three participants experienced PM difficulties with unknown aetiology. The PM task required participants to send three text messages at set times and to complete three real-life goals each working day for a four-week period. After a baseline period, participants completed brief RGT via Skype twice during the study (once following baseline, and again half way through the study). The brief RGT facilitated metacognitive skills and participants learnt to associate texts reading 'STOP' with mentally reviewing their goals and tasks for that day. Six 'STOP' text messages (cues) were sent at random times on half of the days of the intervention. The number and accuracy of texts messages, and the achievement of real-life goals, were compared across cued and un-cued days to evaluate the efficacy of the intervention for each participant. Results: Five participants demonstrated improved PM text message performance and seven participants demonstrated improved performance in real-life goals. Most of the participants reported positive gains in self-reported PM abilities, and most parents of children with acquired neurological conditions reported reduced levels of family stress and burden following the intervention. Conclusions: This research offers some evidence in support of the efficacy of content-free cueing and RGT for facilitating PM abilities. The majority of participants engaged in more frequent and accurate PM tasks and, most importantly, achieved more of their real-life goals as a result of the intervention.

O município de Jundiaí ocupou a posição de liderança na produção vitivinícola paulista desde o início da chegada dos imigrantes italianos por volta de 1930 até 2008 quando a quantidade de uva produzida começou a cair. Diante desse contexto de queda de produção, os atores do setor começaram a se mobilizar na tentativa de reverter o quadro. Diversos fatores parecem ter contribuído para que a tentativa de retomada do crescimento da atividade vitivinícola paulista não tenha obtido o sucesso esperado para a região de Jundiaí. Considerando-se o aparente baixo desempenho do setor no contexto paulista e mesmo nacional, este trabalho de pesquisa foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de propor quatro cenários para a vitivinicultura em Jundiaí em 2030 (\"desaparecimento\", \"desafio constante\", \"produção incentivada\" e \"renascimento\"), gerando informações que possam apoiar a formulação de políticas públicas voltadas para esta tradicional atividade agrícola do Estado de São Paulo. Como parte do processo de elaboração de cenários, este trabalho também atingiu o objetivo secundário de verificar quais são os fatores determinantes da decisão do vitivinicultor em Jundiaí de continuar ou não na atividade.de São Paulo. / The city of Jundiaí occupied the leading position in the São Paulo State wine production since the arrival of Italian immigrants around 1930 until 2008 when the amount of grape produced began to fall. In this context of falling production, industry actors have begun to mobilize in an attempt to reverse the situation. Several factors seem to have contributed for the attempted of Jundiaí region wine industry growth recovery not achieving the expected success. Considering the apparent poor performance of the sector within both national and São Paulo State context, this research was developed with the objective of proposing four scenarios with qualitative elements for the wine industry in Jundiaí in 2030 (\"disappearance\", \"constant challenge\", \"supported production\", \"rebirth\"), thus generating information that may support the formulation of public policies for this traditional agricultural activity of the São Paulo State. As part of the scenario development process and as secondary objective, this research has identified what are the determinants of Jundiaí vintner\'s decision to continue or not in the activity.