Le concept d’anthropologie prospective élaboré dans les années 1950 par Gaston Berger, fondateur de la prospective en France, n’a pas eu la postérité qu’il mérite. Il a été contourné par les prospectivistes, qui ont conduit la prospective dans les parages du marketing, et oublié par les philosophes, qui font trop rarement de l’avenir un véritable sujet de réflexion. Or au début du XXIe siècle, après la prise de conscience de l’entrée de l’humanité dans l’ère de l’anthropocène, ce concept représente peut-être le meilleur fil conducteur pour l’élaboration de la toute nouvelle responsabilité prospective qui pourrait faire contrepoids aux stratégies suicidaires des principaux acteurs de la civilisation occidentale – stratégies exclusivement guidées par les objectifs de puissance technologique ou militaire, de croissance économique ou de recherche de profit à court terme – stratégies qui sacrifient ostensiblement l’avenir de l’humanité au bénéfice du présent ou du court terme. La présente thèse cherche à dessiner l’infrastructure conceptuelle de cette responsabilité prospective qui reste à imaginer et à structurer. La Table des Situations Stratégiques esquissée ici représente un premier pas dans cette direction. Elle ambitionne d’aboutir à une grille d’analyse et d’évaluation des stratégies déployées par les principaux acteurs de la civilisation occidentale sur la surface du globe. Elle vise à consolider l’idée d’un « permis d’engager l’avenir de l’humanité », c’est-à-dire l’idée d’un contrôle démocratique de la pertinence des stratégies des entreprises transnationales ou des gouvernements, sur tous les sujets qui concernent l’avenir à long terme de l’humanité. / The anthropological concept of perspective futures developed in the 1950’s by Gaston Berger (the founder of future studies in France) was not accorded the posterity it deserves. It was overlooked by prospectivists that led future studies into marketing gimmicks and forgotten by philosophers that rarely engage in true reflection on the subject. Or during the beginning of the 21st century, after becoming aware of the human’s entry into Anthropocene era this concept represent possibly the best guide in preparing all the new prospective responsibility that could counter dangerous strategies of major actors of western civilization-strategies that are exclusively guided by military force or technological advancement, economic growth or the pursuit of short term profit-strategies that sacrifices ostensible the future of humanity or the benefit of the present or of the short term. The present thesis attempts to design conceptual framework of this prospective responsibility that rest on imagination. The foundation of the strategic situation initially sketched out here represents the first step in that direction. It attempts to develop analysis and evaluation of strategies employed by the principle actors of western civilization in the world. It attempts to consolidate ideas on one hand, that enable one to engaged in the future of mankind, that is the idea of a democratic control of series of strategies of transnational firms or of governments, particularly, the subjects that concern the future of humanity.

Abstract The findings on depression and anxiety among brain tumor patients have so far been based on case series and case samples. In Finland, psychiatric research in relation to psychiatric symptoms among patients with different types of brain tumors is lacking. The study population of this thesis consisted of 101 patients (39 males and 62 females) aged between 20 and 82 years with a solitary primary brain tumor treated surgically at the Oulu Clinic for Neurosurgery, Oulu University Hospital between February 1990 and March 1992. The major histological subgroup consisted of gliomas (40%), and the rest were meningiomas (33%), acoustic neurinomas (13%), pituitary adenomas (8%) and other types (6%). The psychiatric symptoms of the patients were assessed at three time points, namely before tumor operation as well as at three months and at one year after operation by two valid measurement instruments, the Beck Depression Inventory and the Crown Crisp Experiential Index. In addition, the patients' functional state was evaluated by the Karnofsky Performance Scale and their quality of life according to Sintonen 15 D. Prevalence of at least mild depression before tumor operation was 30% for males and 38% for females. The mean depressive scores decreased significantly for up to one-year during follow-up for both males and females, but they remained notably high in all patients. Decreased functional status (KPS under 70) in the patients was significantly associated with high depressive scores at all measurement points. The decrease in the mean depressive scores was significant among patients with an anterior tumor and those with a pituitary adenoma. Five-year survival of the brain tumor patients was found to be mainly associated with the histology of the tumor. Survival time in months (SD) of the patients with high-grade (III–IV) gliomas was shown to be 22.5 (21.4), while it was 50.2 (19.9) for the patients with low-grade (I–II) gliomas, and 58.2 (9.4) for the rest of the patients. Depression among low-grade glioma patients was significantly associated with worse survival at five years follow-up. The level of anxiety was shown to be significantly higher among patients with a primary brain tumor in the right hemisphere compared to the anxiety scores among patients with left hemispheric tumors. A significant increase was found in the level of obsessionality over time in the female patients with a brain tumor in the left anterior location of the brain at three months after operation. The level of quality of life (QOL) was significantly worse among female brain tumor patients compared to males. Depressive females had significantly lower quality of life compared to that of non-depressive females up to one-year follow-up after surgical operation of the tumor. Depression, anxiety and obsessive-compulsive symptoms have to be recognized and be treated by psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy as soon as possible at every unit where brain tumor patients are followed and encountered.

Abstract Gestational diabetes (GDM) indicates increased risk for diabetes and the metabolic syndrome in women. Research on prenatal exposure to GDM as a risk factor for metabolic diseases is conflicting. Overweight (body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m2) is a strong risk factor for GDM and metabolic diseases; however, there are few published previous studies distinguishing the separate effects of overweight and GDM on the later risk for metabolic diseases in women and their children. The present study evaluated pre-pregnancy overweight and GDM as determinants of long-term risk for diabetes and hypertension in women, and the metabolic consequences of prenatal exposures to maternal pre-pregnancy overweight and different types of maternal diabetes in children. The results are based on prospective, clinical data from Oulu University Hospital (n = 63 mothers and their children), and the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (NFBC 1986, n = 9,362 mothers and their 9,479 children). Compared to normal-weight mothers with normal glucose tolerance in pregnancy, the NFBC 1986 mothers with simultaneous pre-pregnancy overweight and GDM had strikingly high risks for developing diabetes (hazard ratio, HR 47.2; 95% confidence interval 25.5–87.4) and hypertension (HR 9.2 [6.1–13.9]) twenty years after delivery. The risks for these diseases were elevated in mothers with pre-pregnancy overweight even when they had normal glucose tolerance during pregnancy (HR diabetes 12.6 [7.4–21.6], HR hypertension 2.9 [2.1–3.9]). GDM per se indicated increased risk only for diabetes (HR 10.6 [4.2–27.0]). In the cohort from Oulu University Hospital, increased fasting insulin concentration (P = 0.04), first phase insulin response (P = 0.03), and HOMA-B (P = 0.008) were already observed at pre-school age in the offspring of mothers with Type 1 diabetes compared with offspring of mothers with GDM. In the NFBC 1986 offspring, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 2.4% at age 16 years, using the International Diabetes Federation pediatric definition. Abdominal obesity, a waist girth over half one’s length, defined approximately 85% of the adolescents with metabolic syndrome. The risks for overweight and abdominal obesity were high in those with prenatal exposure to both maternal pre-pregnancy overweight and GDM (odds ratio for overweight 4.1 [1.9–8.6], for abdominal obesity 3.8 [1.7–8.8]). In children of normal-weight women, prenatal exposure to GDM was not associated with increased risk of these outcomes. Based on this study, preventing and reducing overweight in fertile age seems to be a key target for preventing metabolic diseases in women and their children.

Demographic aging by standard and alternative indicators in selected countries of Europe and their regional differentiation at NUTS2 level Abstract Demographic aging is often called a phenomenon of the 21st century. However, it is a natural process, which we more or less consciously influence. Population aging is the result of improving the health status of the population and enhancing the quality of human life that has already begun in the 18th century in the context of demographic revolution. The current concern about the sustainability of national social systems in the context of population aging are obviously reasonable, but these concerns are based on the standard characteristics of the age structure, which often use a fixed age of entry into the final stage of life. However, with the lengthening of human life the natural boundaries of old age changes. Alternative indicators on the basis of the concept of prospective age do not use the number of years a person has already lived, but on the number of years that a person will probably live. Paper compares the development of standard and alternative indicators in the Czech Republic, Sweden and Germany in the years 2000-2013 and focuses also on regional differentiation at the NUTS2 level of selected regions in northern, western, eastern and southern...

Dans le cadre des débats sur la transition énergétique, l'implémentation des Smart Grids est avancée comme une part de la solution pour répondre à la fois aux questions climatiques et aux enjeux énergétiques. Les modèles de prospective constituent des outils d'aide à la décision permettant d'orienter les trajectoires énergétiques afin de satisfaire aux futures demandes en tenant compte de contraintes environnementales et techniques. Ces modèles historiques, caractérisés principalement par l'adéquation de l'offre à la demande doivent désormais évoluer pour intégrer les développements futurs attendus du système électrique. Dans ce travail, nous avons implémenté dans une approche de long terme différentes fonctionnalités propres aux Smart Grids (gestion de la demande, stockage, énergies renouvelables). Cette approche nous permet d'évaluer les bénéfices liés à chacune d'entre elles séparément, ou bien conjointement au travers de bouquets de solutions, tenant ainsi compte des possibles interactions entre ces fonctionnalités. Nous avons également intégré un indicateur reflétant le niveau de fiabilité du système électrique dans notre modèle. Ce paramètre supplémentaire permet de contraindre les futurs systèmes électriques afin qu'ils garantissent un niveau de service en terme de fourniture électrique identique à celui des systèmes existants. Cette étude est illustrée par le cas de l'île de la Réunion, qui s'est donné pour objectif de produire d'ici 2030 son électricité à partir de sources uniquement renouvelables, et pour qui les fonctionnalités de Smart Grids pourraient constituer un levier intéressant. / In the context of discussions on the energy transition, the general consensus is that part of the solution could come from Smart Grids to deal both with climate and energy issues. Prospective energy systems models may be used to estimate the long-term development of the energy system in order to meet future energy demands while taking into account environmental and technical constraints. These historical models are demand driven and should from now on evolve to considerate future developments of the electricity system. In this study, we have implemented some functionalities related to the concept of Smart Grids in a long-term planning model (demand-side integration, storage, renewable energy). This approach makes it possible to evaluate their benefits separately or collectively, taking into account possible interactions between these functionalities. We have also implemented an indicator reflecting the level of reliability of the electricity system in our model. This additional parameter enables to constrain future electricity systems to ensure a level of reliability identical to the existing one. Our analysis is demonstrated by the case of the Reunion Island, which aims to produce electricity using 100% renewable sources by 2030, and for which Smart Grids functionalities are also potential solutions for reaching this objective.

This thesis deals with the evaluation of Russia, Ukraine, India and China in terms of prospects of their markets for Czech exporters. Evaluation of these states is performed using PEST and SWOT analysis, characteristics of foreign trade of individual countries, with a focus on trade and economic relations with the Czech Republic (mainly on the analysis of the contractual base, import requirements and existing trade barriers, commodity trade structure and trends in exports and imports focusing on the development of Czech exports). The paper also outlines export opportunities for Czech exporters, perspective fields for export, formulates general recommendations for Czech exporters and financing of export activities. The aim of this work is the formulation of potential recommendations for Czech exporters for the analysis of the target market.

Au Luxembourg, les pratiques de mobilité quotidienne des frontaliers et des résidents engendrent une forte dépendance à l’automobile. Ce processus favorise l’étalement urbain alors même que le pays a pour objectif de répondre à une demande en logements conséquente tout en limitant la consommation foncière. Dans ce contexte, l’objectif central de cette thèse est de donner de nouveaux éclairages sur la relation entre les formes du développement résidentiel et les mobilités quotidiennes qui y sont associées. Pour y parvenir, une démarche normative d’aménagement a été adoptée. Celle-ci consiste à proposer de nouvelles normes d’aménagement, en fonction d’un objectif donné. Des règles quantitatives sont les instruments de mise en application des normes.L’application d’une telle démarche normative se fait en trois étapes dans la thèse : i) la conception de scénarios de développement résidentiel à l’horizon 2030. L’introduction d’une règle d’urbanisation fractale permet la simulation de formes de développement résidentiel réalistes ; ii) la simulation des scénarios de développement résidentiel, à l’aide de la plateforme de simulation MUP-City et iii) l’évaluation des configurations spatiales simulées en termes d’accessibilité spatiale aux aménités rurales et urbaines (calculs SIG), et de durabilité des comportements de mobilité quotidienne (simulations au moyen de la plateforme MobiSim).Dans la plupart des scénarios, l’accessibilité spatiale à un large panel d’aménités (commerces, services, espaces verts et de loisirs, stations de transports en commun) est améliorée par rapport à la situation initiale observée en 2010. Les données de simulation des mobilités quotidiennes, par la prise en compte des comportements individuels des agents dans le modèle, confirment l’intérêt des scénarios simulés. La part modale de la voiture, qui est de 70 % en 2010, diminue en effet dans tous les scénarios. Elle atteint 58 % en 2030 pour l’un des scénarios. Parallèlement, les distances et le budget temps accordés à la marche à pied augmentent fortement.Les résultats de ce travail de thèse montrent l’intérêt d’une démarche normative appliquée aux questions d’aménagement du territoire, notamment en ce qui concerne le développement résidentiel. Les résultats soulignent également l’intérêt d’une modélisation fractale des formes urbaines, tant au niveau local (quartier, commune) que global (région urbaine). / In Luxembourg, daily mobility patterns of both cross-border workers and residents lead to a strong car dependance. This process encourages urban sprawl. Meanwhile the country is faced to increasing housing needs but has to reduce land consumption. Within this context, the main objective of this thesis is to throw light about the relation between residential growth patterns and daily mobility behaviors. In this way, a normative planning approach has been adopted. This approach proposes new planning norms for achieving a series of planning objectives. Quantitative rules are the tools used to apply the norms.Three steps has been done: i) conception of residential growth scenarios for 2030. By applying a fractal rule, we obtain realistic residential development patterns ; ii) spatial simulation of residential growth scenarios, with the MUP-City platform and iii) assessment of simulated spatial con¬gurations regarding both the spatial accessibility to rural and urban amenities (GIS calculations) and the sustainability of daily mobility behaviors (simulations with the MobiSim platform).In most of the scenarios, spatial accessibility to a various range of facilities (retails, services, green spaces, leisures and public transport stations) is increased compared to the initial state observed in 2010. Simulated daily mobility, by taking into account individual behaviors of agents in the model, con¬rms the interest of the proposed scenarios. The modal share of car use, which was 70% in 2010, decreases in all cases. It reaches 58% in 2030 for one scenario. Simultaneously, the distances and the time-budget of pedestrians strongly raise.This doctoral research shows the interest of a normative approach applied to spatial planning issues, particularly in terms of residential development. The results obtained also underline the interest of fractals for modelling urban forms, both at local (neighborhood, municipality) and global (urban region) scales.

Time Perspective (TP) describes the attitude individuals have towards the past, present, and future. This study investigated the associations between TP and self-reported everyday prospective and retrospective memory problems, controlling for stress. Ninety-five participants (18-60 years) completed an online survey which included the Swedish Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (S-ZTPI), the Prospective Retrospective Memory Questionnaire, and the 10-item Perceived Stress Scale. Bivariate correlation analysis revealed that Past Negative, Present Fatalistic, and Future Negative views were associated with more self-reported prospective and retrospective memory problems. Moreover, a Future Positive view was associated with better prospective memory scores. TP biases were assessed using the Deviations From a Balanced Time Perspective measure (DBTP). Hierarchal regression analyses revealed that DBTP accounted for almost 30% of the variance in prospective memory scores and for 25% of the variance in retrospective memory scores, beyond stress. Taken together, the results show a significant link between TP and self-reported everyday memory problems. Future studies should take other variables such as depression, anxiety, mood, and personality into account to shed further light on the association between TP and everyday memory problems. Regarding practical implications, interventions that are aimed at promoting a balanced TP might be used to enhance everyday memory ability. / Tidsperspektiv (TP) beskriver attityden individer har till det förflutna, nuet och framtiden. Denna studie undersökte sambanden mellan TP och självrapporterade vardagliga prospektiva och retrospektiva minnesproblem, som kontrollerat för stress. Nittiofem deltagare (18-60 år) fyllde i en onlineenkät som inkluderade Swedish Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (S-ZTPI), Prospective Retrospective Memory Questionnaire och 10-item Perceived Stress Scale. Bivariat korrelationsanalys avslöjade att tidigare negativa, nuvarande fatalistiska och framtida negativa åsikter var associerade med mer självrapporterade prospektivt och retrospektivt minnesproblem. Dessutom var en framtidspositiv syn förknippad med bättre prospektivt minnespoäng. TP-biaser utvärderades med hjälp av måttet Deviations From a Balanced Time Perspective (DBTP). Hierarkiska regressionsanalyser visade att DBTP stod för nästan 30 % av variansen i prospektiva minnespoäng och för 25 % av variansen i retrospektiva minnespoäng, bortom stress. Sammantaget visar resultaten ett signifikant samband mellan TP och självrapporterade vardagsminnesproblem. Framtida studier bör ta hänsyn till andra variabler som depression, ångest, humör och personlighet för att ytterligare belysa sambandet mellan TP och vardagsminnesproblem. När det gäller praktiska implikationer kan interventioner som syftar till att främja en balanserad TP användas för att förbättra vardagsminnesförmågan.

Zum Thema der Weisheitszahnentfernung existieren zahlreiche Publikationen überwiegend aus dem universitären Umfeld, von denen ein Großteil retrospektiv erhoben wurde. Prospektive Studien hingegen, die sich mit den Komplikationen der ambulanten Weisheitszahnentfernung einschließlich des postoperativen Heilungsverlaufs in der niedergelassenen mund-, kiefer- und gesichtschirurgischen Praxis befassen sind äußerst selten. In dieser prospektiven Studie wurden 330 Patienten im Zeitraum von November 2002 bis Juni 2005 in einer Gemeinschaftspraxis für Mund-, Kiefer und Gesichtschirurgie in Leipzig operiert und nachuntersucht, bei denen zusammen 1005 obere und untere Weisheitszähne entfernt wurden. Der Schwerpunkt der Arbeit lag auf der Identifikation von Merkmalen und operativen Maßnahmen, die das Risiko typischer intra- und postoperativer Komplikationen, die Dauer eines Eingriffes sowie das postoperative follow up unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Patientenalters beeinflussen. Weisheitszahnentfernungen in einem Alter unter 18 Jahren korrelierten mit stärkerer postoperativer Schwellung, Kieferklemme und Schmerzempfindung sowie erhöhtem Risiko einer Wundheilungsstörung. Insbesondere aus der Germektomie resultierten lange OP-Zeiten. Sowohl chirurgische Komplexität als auch begleitende Komplikationen stiegen ab einem Alter von 25 Jahren an. Daher empfehlen wir unter Abwägung von chirurgischem Schwierigkeitsgrad, aber auch der bereits dargelegten Begleitfaktoren ein Alter zwischen 18 und 24 Jahren als günstigsten Zeitpunkt für die Entfernung dritter Molaren.:1 Einleitung und Literaturübersicht 1 2 Ziel- und Fragestellungen 11 3 Patienten und Methoden 12 3.1 Patientenauswahl 12 3.2 Datenerfassung 12 3.2.1 Allgemeine Befunde 13 3.2.2 Radiologische Befunde 13 3.2.3 Bildung von Altersgruppen 13 3.3 Klassifikationskriterien 13 3.4 Entfernungsgründe 15 3.5 Prä- und postoperativ durchgeführte Untersuchungen 15 3.5.1 Messung der Wangendicke 15 3.5.2 Mundöffnung 16 3.5.3 Mundhygienestatus 16 3.6 Vorbereitung und Aufklärung 17 3.7 Anästhesieverfahren 17 3.7.1 Lokalanästhesie 17 3.7.2 Allgemeinanästhesie in Verbindung mit Lokalanästhesie 17 3.8 Operatives Vorgehen 17 3.8.1 Entfernung durch Extraktion 17 3.8.2 Entfernung durch Osteotomie 18 3.8.3 Versorgung der Wunde 18 3.9 Intraoperative Komplikationen 18 3.10 Postoperative Instruktionen 19 3.11 Nachsorgeuntersuchungen 19 3.11.1 Postoperative Schmerzen und Analgetikakonsum 19 3.11.2 Sensibilitätsstörung 19 3.11.3 Postoperative Komplikationen 20 3.12 Statistische Methoden 21 4 Ergebnisse 22 4.1 Patientenklientel 22 4.1.1 Begleiterkrankungen 22 4.1.2 Überweiserstruktur 23 4.1.3 Erteilte Behandlungsaufträge 23 4.2 Operationsindikation 24 4.2.1 Altersspezifischer chirurgischer Handlungsbedarf 25 4.3 Einflüsse auf die OP-Dauer 26 4.4 Nervschädigung 28 4.4.1 Traumatisierung des N. alveolaris inferior 28 4.4.2 Traumatisierung des N. lingualis 28 4.5 Eröffnung der Kieferhöhle 29 4.6 Wurzelfrakturen 31 4.7 Sonstige intraoperative Komplikationen 32 4.8 Störung der Wundheilung 32 4.9 Postoperative Wangenschwellung 35 4.10 Postoperative Einschränkung der maximalen Mundöffnung 36 4.11 Postoperatives Schmerzempfinden 38 4.12 Postoperativer Analgetikakonsum 40 5 Diskussion der Ergebnisse 42 5.1 Patientenklientel 42 5.2 Operationsindikationen 42 5.3 Einflüsse auf die OP-Dauer 45 5.4 Traumatisierung des N. alveolaris inferior 46 5.5 Traumatisierung des N. lingualis 46 5.6 Eröffnung der Kieferhöhle 47 5.7 Wurzelfraktur 48 5.8 Störung der Wundheilung 49 5.9 Schwellung und Kieferklemme 52 5.10 Schmerzempfinden und Analgetikakonsum 54 5.11 Beantwortung der Fragestellungen 56 6 Zusammenfassung der Arbeit 59 7 Literaturverzeichnis 61 8 Anhang I

The prevalence of dementia is increasing globally and is linked to obesity and unfavorable dietary habits. The present study analyses the association of alcohol intake from wine and non wine alcoholic beverages (non-wine) in g/d, as well as coffee and tea in cups/d, with incident dementia. Over 4.2 million person-years, 4270 dementia cases occurred in 351,436 UK Biobank participants. Hazard ratios (HRs) for incident dementia were defined with Cox proportional hazard regression models in which beverage intake was fitted as penalized cubic splines. Wine intake showed a significant U-shaped association with the lowest risk for incident dementia (nadir) ranging from 21 to 23 g alcohol/d in all participants and in males. In contrast, non-wine consumption was significantly and dose-dependently associated with incident dementia, and the nadir was found at 0 g alcohol/d. Coffee consumption was not related to dementia risk, while moderate-to-high tea intake was negatively associated with incident dementia. Taken together, the current study shows on a population level that moderate consumption of wine and moderate-to-high tea intake is associated with a decreased risk of incident dementia. In contrast, non-wine is positively related to dementia risk in a linear fashion, and no clear association is found for coffee.