El estudio de la retroactividad y de sus límites constituye un tema clásico y fundamental de Derecho tributario, sometido en la actualidad a un intenso debate, como demuestra la abundante jurisprudencia constitucional y europea existente sobre el tema. En este trabajo se lleva a cabo un análisis sistemático del principio de irretroactividad en Derecho tributario en los planos de la aplicación y la producción de normas tributarias - como regla general supletoria y como principio constitucional vinculante para leyes y reglamentos -, distinguiendo en función del carácter sustantivo, procedimental o sancionador de la norma. La investigación - de marcado carácter interdisciplinar y de Derecho comparado - se ocupa de la noción de retroactividad, el Derecho transitorio y los límites constitucionales a la retroactividad tributaria, completándose con un análisis de la retroactividad de actos y sentencias, con especial referencia a los efectos en el tiempo de las declaraciones de inconstitucionalidad de leyes tributarias.. / The study of retroactivity and its boundaries constitutes a classic and fundamental issue in Tax Law. Nowadays, this topic is subject to an intensive debate regarding how it proves the prolific constitutional and European case law related to the matter. This study carries out a systematic analysis of the non-retroactive principle in Tax Law, in the fields of application and production of tax norms - as a general supplementary rule and as a constitutional principle - whilst at the same time distinguishing between the substantive, procedural and penal character. The investigation (which has an interdisciplinary and internationally comparative law nature) deals with the retroactivity notion, grandfathering and with the constitutional boundaries of the tax retroactivity effect. Concurrently, the study is complemented with the analysis of the retroactivity of administrative acts and court decisions, with special reference to the temporal effects of the declaration of an anti-constitutional character of tax laws

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the industrialised world, and places a heavy burden on society in terms of personal disability and health care costs. The first signs of CHD often present acutely as a myocardial infarction (AMI), commonly known as a heart attack. Survivors of a heart attack remain vulnerable to poor health-related quality of life (HRQOL), further cardiac events, and increased morbidity due to a progression of CHD. Thus, the implementation of interventions to reduce these risks is an important public health strategy. To date, secondary prevention and rehabilitation efforts post-AMI focus primarily on the patient. However, it is argued that recovery from AMI occurs within a social context, and that risk reduction strategies are likely to be enhanced if interventions take into account the impact of the event on the quality of life of patients and their partners. Evidence from a review of couple relationship literature indicates that a significant proportion of couples experiences poor HRQOL (i.e., physical and emotional wellbeing) when coping with stressful life events, and that interactive aspects of a couple relationship (i.e., dyadic functioning and behaviour) are associated with individual well-being at such a time. Information from studies of couples dealing with recovery from heart attack is sparse, but tends to reflect the findings from the broader literature. Further research is required with post-AMI couples, though, as there are a number of shortcomings associated with the existing evidence. For instance, it is derived from studies conducted with, mostly small, samples of convenience; many different instruments are used to collect the data; and no studies specifically measure HRQOL. Analytically, most evidence is obtained with univariate and bivariate statistics, and data are analysed as groups of patients or partners, as opposed to dyads. Where multivariable analyses are undertaken a number of bivariate relationships are no longer significant after accounting for covariates such as age and gender; and few researchers investigate predictive associations between dyadic functioning/behaviour and HRQOL outcomes. Finally, there is a paucity of information from comparative analyses. Thus, it is not known whether the well-being of post-AMI couples over time is better than, similar to, or worse than, for example, that in the general population. The research program underpinning this thesis, the QUT-AMI Project, comprised two studies designed to address these methodological issues. The first was an observational, cross-sectional, pilot study conducted in 1998 with 26 post-AMI couples. The main investigation was a prospective cohort study of 93 post-AMI couples undertaken in 1999-2000. In both studies the samples comprised a consecutive series of adult males younger than 75 years who had experienced a first AMI, and their female partners. The average couple in both studies was middle-aged, had been married for many years, and both members of the dyad were working at the time of the heart attack. Prospective participants were identified in major clinical centres that admit cardiac patients, and couples were recruited to the project soon after the patient's heart attack. Clinical data were collected in hospital. Further data were collected with self-administered questionnaires during a home visit at 1 month (pilot and main study), and by mailed questionnaire or during a home visit at 6 months(main study) after the heart attack. The pilot study was undertaken to test recruitment and data collection procedures in preparation for the second (main) study, measure couples' HRQOL at 1 month after the event using the SF-36, and qualitatively investigate life issues for couples coping with recovery from AMI. In the main study couples' HRQOL outcomes were measured at 1 and 6 months post-AMI using the SF-36, and examined for changes over that time. The outcomes were also compared with those from matched population norms to estimate the impact of a heart attack on couples' HRQOL during the early and later recovery period. Additionally, the following relationships were investigated to determine the extent to which:* patients' dyadic functioning (e.g. happiness/satisfaction with relationship, measured with the Marital Adjustment Scale) and use of dyadic behaviour (e.g., hiding concerns and negative feelings from the other member of the dyad, measured with the Protective Buffering Scale) at 1 month predicted patients' emotional well-being at 6 months post-AMI;* partners' dyadic functioning and behaviour at 1 month predicted partners' emotional well-being at 6 months post-AMI;* patients' and partners' dyadic functioning at 1 month predicted patients' or partners' emotional well-being at 6 months post-AMI; and* patients' and partners' dyadic behaviour at 1 month predicted patients' or partners' emotional well-being at 6 months post-AMI. Exploratory analyses were also undertaken to determine the effect of dyadic discrepancies in functioning and behaviour, at 1 month after the heart attack, on patients' and partners' emotional well-being at 6 months after the event. Important findings were as follows:* At 1 month after an AMI the HRQOL of couples is impaired. The major impact is on physical well-being for patients, and emotional well-being for their partners.* In general, couples' HRQOL improves between 1 and 6 months after an AMI.* At 6 months after an AMI, the HRQOL of average couples is similar to that of their peers in the normal population.* There are subgroup variations in the quality of life of post-AMI couples, and these are associated with age, clinically poor physical health, and depression.* The combination of patients' and partners' use of dyadic behaviour at 1 month after an AMI explains 7% of the variation in patients' emotional well-being at 6months after the event, after adjustment for patients' concurrent physical wellbeing and prior levels of emotional well-being, as well as duration of couple relationships.* The combination of partners' perceptions of dyadic functioning and use of dyadic behaviour at 1 month after an AMI explains 5% of the variation in partners' emotional well-being at 6 months after the event, after adjustment for partners' concurrent physical well-being and prior levels of emotional well-being, as well as duration of couples' relationships.* Patients have poorer emotional well-being at 6 months after an AMI if partners use dyadic behaviour infrequently at 1 month after the event.* Partners have poorer emotional well-being at 6 months after an AMI if they are not satisfied/unhappy with the functioning of their relationships at 1 month after the event. Adjusted exploratory analyses, undertaken to determine the extent to which dyadic discrepancies in perceptions of functioning or use of protective buffering behaviour, predict emotional well-being, show that patients who are less satisfied/unhappier with functioning than their partners at 1 month after an AMI have poor emotional wellbeing at 6 months after the event; patients who use the behaviour more frequently than their partners at 1 month after an AMI have poor emotional well-being at 6months after the event; and partners who are less satisfied/unhappier with functioning than their patients at 1 month after an AMI have poor emotional well-being at 6months after the event. The evidence from the QUT-AMI Project supports the proposition that the interaction that occurs within a couple relationship, combined with individual characteristics of members of a dyad, influences the extent to which a heart attack impacts on couples' HRQOL. It is argued that it is not enough to merely focus on implementing secondary prevention strategies with post-AMI patients. Given that poor emotional well-being is known to predict adverse cardiac events, and premature mortality due to cardiac disease, it is recommended that a couple-focused intervention designed to meet specific needs should be implemented with at-risk couples as a public health strategy to improve not only the patients' quality of life but also that of his partner. Further research is recommended to determine the extent to which such an intervention improves post-AMI couples' quality of life.

Thesis (M.A.)--Miami University, Dept. of Psychology, 2009. / Title from first page of PDF document. Includes bibliographical references (p. 43-47).

Diss. (sammanfattning) Umeå : Umeå universitet, 2010.

Le recours croissant à des anticipations stratégiques territorialisées, participatives et mobilisatrices comme étapes du processus d’élaboration des politiques publiques territoriales, par le Conseil régional de Bretagne, le Gouvernement du Pays-de-Galles et le Gouvernement du Québec, peut être analysé comme un investissement, par ces pouvoirs territoriaux « intermédiaires », d'un champ jusqu'alors réservé à l’État central et aux élus nationaux : la promesse du futur. Dans un contexte de remise en question du modèle de l’État-Providence centralisé, accentué par la crise économique et la crise de la dette de la fin des années 2000, la capacité et la légitimité politique des États centraux à garantir la prospérité territoriale et l'espoir d'un futur meilleur se sont étiolées. Les administrations régionales – au sens large – investissent donc cet espace désormais disponible pour mettre en avant une vision infranationale du futur et du territoire, tant auprès de la population que des partenaires de l'action publique. Les démarches d’anticipation stratégique étudiées produisent et reproduisent des discours sur la vision du futur et du territoire, sur le sens de l’action publique et des institutions régionales. Ces registres participent tous d’un investissement de l’avenir par le pouvoir politique, c’est-à-dire d’une économie politique du temps. L’approche par l’investissement politique du futur permet donc d’étudier la fabrique et le gouvernement d’un territoire politique. Les récits projectifs territorialisés que nous avons pu étudier articulent en effet plusieurs dimensions de la légitimation d’un espace politique : un processus de circonscription du territoire (territory making process), un processus de mobilisation d’une communauté territoriale (community making process), et un processus de redéfinition de la dynamique et de l’espace de la légitimité (polity defining process). Cette perspective de recherche permet d’étudier plusieurs dimensions du changement : la transformation interne des espaces politiques nationaux, la convergence internationale de l’action publique infranationale, et enfin la redistribution de l’autorité politique dans des États Nations en recomposition. / The increasing use of spatialized, collaborative and mobilizing strategic anticipations as steps of the public policy process by the Regional Council of Brittany, the Welsh Government and the Government of Quebec can be seen as an investment, by these "intermediate" territorial powers, of a field hitherto monopolized by central States and national representatives: the promise of the future. In a context of reconfiguration of centralized Welfare State’s model, accentuated by the economic crisis and the debt crisis of the late 2000s, the central states' capacity and political legitimacy to guarantee territorial prosperity and the hope for a better future has subsided. Regional administrations - in a broad sense - are therefore investing this space now available to put forward a sub-national vision of the future and of the territory, both among the population and the partners of the public action. The strategic anticipation processes studied produce and reproduce discourses on the vision of the future and territory, on the meaning of public action and regional institutions. These narratives are all caracterized by a political investment of the future, that is to say, a political economy of time. The approach by the notion of political investment of the future therefore helps to achieve a better understanding of the making-process and governing-process of a political space. Spatialized projective narratives that we have been able to study articulate several dimensions of the legitimization process: a territory-making process, a community-making process, and a polity defining process. This research perspective helps to study several dimensions of change: the internal transformation of national political spaces, the international convergence of subnational public action, and finally the redistribution of political authority in changing Nation-States.

O Brasil tem sido desafiado a enfrentar questões estratégicas e complexas nas atividades de ciência, tecnologia e inovação que demandam a formação de redes de pesquisa e Pós-graduação orientadas à redução das disparidades acadêmicas regionais. Conforme proposto na 4ª Conferência Nacional de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação de 2010, há necessidade de desenvolver metodologias adequadas à avaliação de redes de pesquisa e Pós-graduação como a forma mais avançada de produção do conhecimento e formação de pessoal qualificado, sobretudo para desenvolver Programas de Pós-graduação nas áreas estratégicas e nas tecnologias portadoras de futuro. Nesta dissertação, são apresentados resultados e estatística descritiva da consulta endereçada aos coordenadores de projetos para avaliar o progresso do Programa Nacional de Cooperação Acadêmica - Novas Fronteiras (2007). A metodologia foi de natureza qualitativa, por meio de questões abertas propostas na consulta, comparando com os pareceres da Comissão Julgadora que julgou a renovação dos projetos. Foram também mapeadas as Instituições com potencial para liderar a formação de redes de pesquisa em áreas estratégicas e tecnologias portadoras de futuro, conforme indicadas no Livro Azul da 4ª CNCTI, mediante verificação de ocorrências no Diretório de Grupos de Pesquisa do Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (DGP/CNPq) e de cursos recomendados pela Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Capes), com conceitos iguais ou superiores a cinco, com potencial para liderar redes cooperativas mais amplas. Teve finalidade exploratória para avaliar os resultados parciais do Procad NF Edição 2007 e investigar sobre o potencial de formação de redes de pesquisa e Pós-graduação. Ainda não foi possível avaliar os impactos desta edição do Programa, porque sua implantação é muito recente e não houve tempo suficiente para maturação dos projetos. A fundamentação teórica que serviu de base para a avaliação foi encontrada na produção científica mais recente relacionada às redes de cooperação acadêmica e nos documentos disponíveis na Capes. / Brazil has been challenged to face strategic and complex issues concerning science, technology and innovation which demand the constitution of research and graduate programs networks in order to reduce regional academic inequalities. According to the Fourth National Conference of Science Technology and Innovation (2010) there is a need to develop adequate methodologies to assess research networks to improve the scientific production and formation of qualified researchers specially for strategic fields of knowledge and advanced technologies. In this dissertation the results of an inquiry for project coordinators are presented with the purpose to assess the progress of the National Program of Academic Cooperation - New Frontiers, Edition 2007, because it is not yet possible to assess its impacts considering the short time of its implementation. The results and descriptive statistics of a consult addressed to project coordinators are presented for progress assessment of the National Program of Academic Cooperation - New Frontiers (2007). The methodology for assessment was of qualitative nature, including comparison with de assessments by the Committee of Specialists which recommended the renewal of projects. Institutions were mapped with potential for constitution of cooperative networks with focus on strategic areas and advanced technologies as indicated by the Blue Book from the 4th CNCTI through searches in the Directory of Research Groups (DGP) of National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) matched with the graduate programs recommended by Brazilian Federal Agency for Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (Capes) with grades equal or greater than five with network leadership potential. It was also exploratory on its goals to investigate the potential of formation of research and graduate programs networks. The theoretical basis of the present research was of academic cooperation networks.

INTRODUÇÃO: O diagnóstico microbiológico das infecções em artroplastias é de fundamental importância para a definição da estratégia de uso dos antimicrobianos. As culturas microbiológicas convencionais apresentam elevados índices de falso-negativos, em especial, nas infecções crônicas, em que é frequente a presença do biofilme aderido ao implante. A utilização de amostras deste biofilme, viáveis à cultura, a partir de seu descolamento do implante pela técnica de sonicação, tem mostrado aumento da sensibilidade em publicações recentes. O objetivo deste estudo foi comparar os resultados das culturas microbiológicas de fragmentos de tecido periprotético, realizadas em meio sólido, àquelas obtidas pelo cultivo do líquido oriundo da sonicação do implante removido, semeado, inicialmente, em frascos de hemocultura e, posteriormente, em meio sólido. MÉTODOS: Neste estudo de análise descritiva, prospectivo e comparativo, 30 pacientes com diagnóstico de infecção em artroplastias de joelho ou quadril, com mais de 90 dias de história, tiveram seus implantes cirurgicamente removidos e foram coletadas seis amostras do tecido periprotético, de locais previamente determinados, para a realização de cultura microbiológica em meios sólidos. Simultaneamente, os implantes foram submetidos ao processo de sonicação e o material resultante foi injetado em frascos de hemocultura BD Bactec e submetidos ao processo de cultura automatizada. Todas as amostras foram pesquisadas quanto à presença de bactérias aeróbias, anaeróbias, micobactérias e fungos, e os resultados comparados por meio de análise estatística, em busca da superioridade de um método sobre o outro. Como objetivo secundário, buscou-se analisar quais os pontos de coleta do tecido periprotético teriam maior sensibilidade em suas culturas. RESULTADOS: Não houve diferenças estatisticamente significantes da amostra em relação ao gênero, patologia articular primária, tipo de artroplastia, localização do implante ou lateralidade. Em 17 casos (56,7%), houve uso de antimicrobianos no período de 15 dias que antecederam a retirada do implante. O método de cultura do fluido de sonicação mostrou sensibilidade de 86,7% e foi superior, de modo estatisticamente significante (P < 0,001), em relação à cultura dos fragmentos periprotéticos, cujos resultados tiveram sensibilidades entre 26,7 e 53,3%. O uso de antibioticoterapia recente não interferiu de modo estatisticamente significante na sensibilidade da cultura do líquido oriundo da sonicação. (P = 0,113). Quanto ao objetivo secundário, a coleta de fragmentos da membrana periprotética mostrou maior sensibilidade, estatisticamente significante, na comparação com três dos demais cinco pontos de coleta (P < 0,05). CONCLUSÕES: A cultura microbiológica do líquido obtido por sonicação dos implantes removidos de pacientes com diagnóstico de infecção periprotética e semeado inicialmente em frascos de hemocultura mostrou ter sensibilidade superior, estatisticamente significante, à cultura convencional de fragmentos do tecido periprotético semeados em meios sólidos. A cultura microbiológica da membrana periprotética mostrou ter maior sensibilidade em relação à maioria dos outros sítios que tiveram fragmentos de tecido periprotético pesquisados. / INTRODUCTION: Microbiological diagnosis in periprosthetic infection is of fundamental importance to define the most appropriate antimicrobial strategies. Conventional microbiological cultures have high rates of false negatives, especially in chronic infections, in which there is often the presence of biofilm attached to the implant. The use of samples of viable culturable biofilm taken from the detachment of the implant by sonication technique has been shown to increase the sensitivity in recent studies. The objective of this study was to compare the results of microbiological cultures of periprosthetic tissue fragments, made in a solid medium, to those obtained through the cultivation of the liquid coming from the sonication of the removed implant initially seeded in blood culture bottles and later in solid medium. METHODS: Using descriptive, prospective and comparative analysis, thirty patients with a diagnosis of infected knee or hip arthroplasty, with more than ninety days of history, had their implants surgically removed. Six periprosthetic tissue samples, collected at predetermined places, were used for microbiological culture on solid media. Simultaneously, the implants were subjected to the sonication process, and the resulting material was injected into vials of BD Bactec blood cultures and subjected to an automated culture process. All samples were screened for the presence of aerobic bacteria, anaerobes, mycobacteria and fungi and the results compared by statistical analysis to find the superiority of one method over the other. As a secondary objective, this study sought to analyze which of the periprosthetic tissue collecting points would have greater sensitivity in their cultures. RESULTS: There were no statistically significant differences in the sample as related to gender, primary joint pathology, type of arthroplasty, implant location or laterality. In seventeen cases (56.7%), antimicrobials were used within the 15-day period leading up to the removal of the implant. The sonication culture fluid showed a sensitivity of 86.7% and was higher, statistically significant (P < 0.001) in relation to the culture of periprosthetic fragments, where results displayed sensitivities between 26.7 and 53.3%. The use of recent antibiotic therapy did not affect the sensitivity of the liquid coming from the sonication culture, which was not statistically significant (P = 0.113). As for the secondary objective, the collection of periprosthetic membrane fragments showed higher sensitivity, statistically significant (P < 0.05), as compared to three of the remaining five collecting points. CONCLUSIONS: The microbiological culture liquid obtained by sonication of the implants removed from patients with diagnosis of periprosthetic infection and initially seeded in blood culture bottles was shown to have superior sensitivity, statistically significancy, as compared to conventional culture of the periprosthetic tissue fragments seeded on solid media. The microbiological culture of the periprosthetic membrane seems to be more sensitive compared to most other sites that had periprosthetic tissue fragments surveyed

O Brasil tem sido desafiado a enfrentar questões estratégicas e complexas nas atividades de ciência, tecnologia e inovação que demandam a formação de redes de pesquisa e Pós-graduação orientadas à redução das disparidades acadêmicas regionais. Conforme proposto na 4ª Conferência Nacional de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação de 2010, há necessidade de desenvolver metodologias adequadas à avaliação de redes de pesquisa e Pós-graduação como a forma mais avançada de produção do conhecimento e formação de pessoal qualificado, sobretudo para desenvolver Programas de Pós-graduação nas áreas estratégicas e nas tecnologias portadoras de futuro. Nesta dissertação, são apresentados resultados e estatística descritiva da consulta endereçada aos coordenadores de projetos para avaliar o progresso do Programa Nacional de Cooperação Acadêmica - Novas Fronteiras (2007). A metodologia foi de natureza qualitativa, por meio de questões abertas propostas na consulta, comparando com os pareceres da Comissão Julgadora que julgou a renovação dos projetos. Foram também mapeadas as Instituições com potencial para liderar a formação de redes de pesquisa em áreas estratégicas e tecnologias portadoras de futuro, conforme indicadas no Livro Azul da 4ª CNCTI, mediante verificação de ocorrências no Diretório de Grupos de Pesquisa do Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (DGP/CNPq) e de cursos recomendados pela Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Capes), com conceitos iguais ou superiores a cinco, com potencial para liderar redes cooperativas mais amplas. Teve finalidade exploratória para avaliar os resultados parciais do Procad NF Edição 2007 e investigar sobre o potencial de formação de redes de pesquisa e Pós-graduação. Ainda não foi possível avaliar os impactos desta edição do Programa, porque sua implantação é muito recente e não houve tempo suficiente para maturação dos projetos. A fundamentação teórica que serviu de base para a avaliação foi encontrada na produção científica mais recente relacionada às redes de cooperação acadêmica e nos documentos disponíveis na Capes. / Brazil has been challenged to face strategic and complex issues concerning science, technology and innovation which demand the constitution of research and graduate programs networks in order to reduce regional academic inequalities. According to the Fourth National Conference of Science Technology and Innovation (2010) there is a need to develop adequate methodologies to assess research networks to improve the scientific production and formation of qualified researchers specially for strategic fields of knowledge and advanced technologies. In this dissertation the results of an inquiry for project coordinators are presented with the purpose to assess the progress of the National Program of Academic Cooperation - New Frontiers, Edition 2007, because it is not yet possible to assess its impacts considering the short time of its implementation. The results and descriptive statistics of a consult addressed to project coordinators are presented for progress assessment of the National Program of Academic Cooperation - New Frontiers (2007). The methodology for assessment was of qualitative nature, including comparison with de assessments by the Committee of Specialists which recommended the renewal of projects. Institutions were mapped with potential for constitution of cooperative networks with focus on strategic areas and advanced technologies as indicated by the Blue Book from the 4th CNCTI through searches in the Directory of Research Groups (DGP) of National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) matched with the graduate programs recommended by Brazilian Federal Agency for Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (Capes) with grades equal or greater than five with network leadership potential. It was also exploratory on its goals to investigate the potential of formation of research and graduate programs networks. The theoretical basis of the present research was of academic cooperation networks.

Submitted by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2011-05-06T18:11:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 1417127.pdf: 5400521 bytes, checksum: b6ddcc4cf2fe2855e50cb7bc0be5c242 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha(marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2011-05-06T18:12:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 1417127.pdf: 5400521 bytes, checksum: b6ddcc4cf2fe2855e50cb7bc0be5c242 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha(marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2011-05-06T18:12:15Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 1417127.pdf: 5400521 bytes, checksum: b6ddcc4cf2fe2855e50cb7bc0be5c242 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-05-06T18:12:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 1417127.pdf: 5400521 bytes, checksum: b6ddcc4cf2fe2855e50cb7bc0be5c242 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-03-26 / A incerteza é o principal elemento do futuro. Desde os primórdios, o homem busca métodos para estruturar essas incertezas futuras e assim poder guiar suas ações. Apenas a partir da segunda metade do século XX, porém, quando os métodos projetivos e preditivos já não eram mais capazes de explicar o futuro em um ambiente mundial cada vez mais interligado e turbulento, é que nasceram os primeiros métodos estruturados de construção de cenários. Esses métodos prospectivos visam lançar a luz sobre o futuro não para projetar um futuro único e certo, mas para visualizar uma gama de futuros possíveis e coerentes. Esse trabalho tem como objetivo propor uma nova abordagem à construção de cenários, integrando o Método de Impactos Cruzados à Análise Morfológica, utilizando o conceito de Rede Bayesianas, de fonna a reduzir a complexidade da análise sem perda de robustez. Este trabalho fará uma breve introdução histórica dos estudos do futuro, abordará os conceitos e definições de cenários e apresentará os métodos mais utilizados. Como a abordagem proposta pretende-se racionalista, será dado foco no Método de Cenários de Michel Godet e suas ferramentas mais utilizadas. Em seguida, serão apresentados os conceitos de Teoria dos Grafos, Causalidade e Redes Bayesianas. A proposta é apresentada em três etapas: 1) construção da estrutura do modelo através da Análise Estrutural, propondo a redução de um modelo inicialmente cíclico para um modelo acíclico direto; 2) utilização da Matriz de Impactos Cruzados como ferramenta de alimentação, preparação e organização dos dados de probabilidades; 3) utilização da Rede Bayesiana resultante da primeira etapa como subespaço de análise de uma Matriz Morfológica. Por último, um teste empírico é realizado para comprovar a proposta de redução do modelo cíclico em um modelo acíclico.

Submitted by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2012-01-17T13:29:04Z No. of bitstreams: 1 1424287.pdf: 7196451 bytes, checksum: d4e957478d7a6933b40854ddb5fb097a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2012-01-17T13:29:15Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 1424287.pdf: 7196451 bytes, checksum: d4e957478d7a6933b40854ddb5fb097a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2012-01-17T13:29:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 1424287.pdf: 7196451 bytes, checksum: d4e957478d7a6933b40854ddb5fb097a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-01-17T13:29:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 1424287.pdf: 7196451 bytes, checksum: d4e957478d7a6933b40854ddb5fb097a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 / The objective of this study is to identify prospective criticai uncertainties for think tanks, important information for the elaboration of prospective scenarios for these organizations. A qualitative approach was adopted. Data were collected from literature and from interviews with key executives from Fundação Getulio Vargas and international specialists were analyzed. A theoretical evaluation of the main think tanks definitions and classifications was performed, and the common elements across the definitions were identified and used to construct a suitable think tank definition that was considered in the subsequent phases of the study. The URCA Structural Analysis Model (MARQUES, 1988) was applied to evaluate 21 prospective variables selected from the collected data. The results indicate 8 prospective criticai uncertainties for think tanks: 1) Think tanks internationalization; 2) Agenda globalization; 3) International projection of the nations; 4) Competition among think tanks; 5) Competition between think tanks and ONGs, advisers, web and other information providers; 6) Technical staff; 7) Leading group; and 8) Financiai diversification and sustainability. / EI objetivo de este trabajo es identificar las incertidumbres-críticas prospectivas para think tanks, un importante subsidio para la elaboración de escenarios prospectivos para esas organizaciones. EI enfoque es cualitativo: los datos, recolectados por medio de bibliografía y entrevistas con ejecutivos estratégicos de la Fundação Getulio Vargas y especialistas internacionales, fueron tratados por el método de Análisis Estructural. Para este fin, se utilizó el Modelo URCA (MARQUES, 1988). Creemos que se trata de un abordaje inédito en el área. La base teórica analiza las definiciones y clasificaciones de think tanks, identifica atributos comunes a tales conceptos y, a partir de esta referencial, presenta la definición think tank objeto de este estudio. A seguir, a partir de los datos recolectados, son descritas 21 variables prospectivas. Esta lista inicial de variables es sometida ai Modelo URCA de Análisis Estructural (MARQUES, 1988), indicando, como resultado, ocho incertidumbrescríticas prospectivas para think tanks: Internacionalización de think tanks; Globalización de la agenda; Proyección internacional de las naciones; Competencia entre think tanks; Competencia de ONGs, consultorías, redes y similares; Cuadro técnico; Cuerpo directivo; y Diversificación y sustentación financieras. / O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar as incertezas-críticas prospectivas para fhínk fanks, importante subsídio na elaboração de cenários prospectivos para essas organizações. O enfoque é qualitativo: os dados, coletados por bibliografia e em entrevistas com executivos estratégicos da Fundação Getulio Vargas e especialistas internacionais, foram tratados pelo método da Análise Estrutural. Para tanto, utilizouse o Modelo URCA (MARQUES, 1988). Acredita-se tratar de abordagem inédita na área, pois registro de Análises Prospectivas para thínk tanks não foram localizados. A base teórica analisa diversas definições e classificações de fhínk fanks, identifica atributos comuns a tais conceitos e, a partir deste referencial, apresenta a definição de thínk tank, objeto deste estudo. Em seguida, a partir dos dados coletados, são descritas 21 variáveis prospectivas. Essa lista inicial de variáveis é submetida ao Modelo URCA de Análise Estrutural, gerando, como resultado, oito incertezascríticas prospectivas para thínk fanks: Internacionalização de thínk fanks; Globalização da agenda; Projeção internacional das nações; Concorrência entre thínk tanks; Concorrência de organizações não-governamentais, consultorias, web e similares; Quadro técnico; Corpo dirigente; e Diversificação e sustentação financeiras.