The aim of this in vitro study was to analyse the performance of CAD/CAM resin-based composites for the fabrication of long-term temporary fixed dental prostheses (FDP) and to compare it to other commercially available alternative materials regarding its long-term stability. Four CAD/CAM materials [Structur CAD (SC), VITA CAD-Temp (CT), Grandio disc (GD), and Lava Esthetic (LE)] and two direct RBCs [(Structur 3 (S3) and LuxaCrown (LC)] were used to fabricate three-unit FDPs. 10/20 FDPs were subjected to thermal cycling and mechanical loading by chewing simulation and 10/20 FDPs were stored in distilled water. Two FDPs of each material were forwarded to additional image diagnostics prior and after chewing simulation. Fracture loads were measured and data were statistically analysed. SC is suitable for use as a long-term temporary (two years) three-unit FDP. In comparison to CT, SC featured significantly higher breaking forces (SC > 800 N; CT < 600 N) and the surface wear of the antagonists was (significantly) lower and the abrasion of the FDP was similar. The high breaking forces (1100–1327 N) of GD and the small difference compared to LE regarding flexural strength showed that the material might be used for the fabrication of three-unit FDPs. With the exception of S3, all analysed direct or indirect materials are suitable for the fabrication of temporary FDPs.

Ce travail propose une mise en perspective des pratiques de modélisation macroéconomique,depuis les travaux de Robert E. Lucas dans les années 1970 jusqu’aux contributions actuelles de l’approche dite d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique (DSGE). Cette mise en perspective permet de caractériser l’essor des modèles DSGE comme un compromis entre conceptions antagonistes de la modélisation : d’une part, celle de l’approche des cycles réels (RBC) et, d’autre part, celle de la nouvelle économie keynésienne. Pour justifier cette opposition, ce travail propose une reconstruction épistémologique de l’histoire récente de la macroéconomie, à savoir une analyse des différents critères qui définissent la validité et la pertinence d’un modèle. L’hypothèse de travail est qu’on peut identifier, pour chaque pratique de modélisation,trois critères méthodologiques fondamentaux : la validité interne (l’adéquation des hypothèses d’un modèle aux concepts aux formalismes d’une théorie), la validité externe(l’adéquation des hypothèses et/ou des résultats d’un modèle au monde réel, et les procédés quantitatifs pour évaluer cette adéquation) et le critère de hiérarchie (la préférence pour la validité interne sur la validité externe, ou vice versa). Cette grille de lecture, inspirée de la littérature sur les modèles en philosophie des sciences, permet d’apporter quatre contributions originales à l’histoire de la macroéconomie récente. (1) Elle permet de concevoir l’essor des modèles DSGE sans faire appel à l’explication proposée par l’historiographie produite par les macroéconomistes eux-mêmes,à savoir l’existence d’un consensus et d’un progrès technique exogène. Contre cette vision de l’histoire en termes de progrès scientifique, nous mettons en avant les oppositions méthodologiques au sein de la macroéconomie et nous illustrons l’interdépendance entre activité théorique et développement des méthodes statistiques et économétriques. (2) La thèse s’attaque au cloisonnement entre histoire des théories macroéconomiques et histoire des méthodes quantitatives. Grâce à sa perspective méthodologique, ce travail permet d’opérer la jonction entre ces deux littératures et de développer les bases d’une vision globale des transformations récentes de la macroéconomie. (3) La relecture méthodologique de l’histoire de la modélisation permet de mettre en évidence comment la condition de validité externe a représenté le principal point de clivage entre différentes conceptions de la modélisation. La question de la validité externe apparaît par ailleurs intrinsèquement liée à la question de l’explication causale des phénomènes, sur laquelle repose largement la justification de la modélisation comme outil d’expertise des politiques économiques. (4) Ce travail aboutit à une caractérisation originale de l’approche DSGE : loin de constituer une «synthèse» ou un consensus, cette approche s’apparente à un compromis, fragilisé par l’antagonisme méthodologique entre ses parties prenantes. / This dissertation provides a history of macroeconomic modeling practices from RobertE. Lucas’s works in the 1970s up to today’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. Working from a historical perspective, I suggest that the recent rise of DSGE models should be characterized as a compromise between opposing views of modeling methodology—on the one hand, the real business cycle (RBC) view, on the other hand, the new Keynesian view. In order to justify this claim, my work provides an epistemological reconstruction of the recent history of macroeconomics, building from ananalysis of the criteria defining the validity and the pertinence of a model. My assumption is that recent macroeconomic modeling practices can be described by three distinctive methodological criteria : the internal validity criterion (which establishes the consistency between models’ assumptions and concepts and formalisms of a theory), the external validity criterion (which establishes the consistency between the assumptions and results of a model and the real world, as well as the quantitative methods needed to assess such a consistency) and the hierarchization criterion (which establishes the preference for internal over external validity, or vice versa). This epistemological reconstruction draws primarily from the literature about models in the philosophy of science. My work aims to make four contributions to the history of recent macroeconomics. (1) To understand the rise of DSGE models without referring to the explanation providedby the macroeconomists themselves, who tend to think that macroeconomics evolved through theoretical consensus and exogenous technical progress. By distancing itself fromthis perspective, my work draws attention to the disruptive character of methodological controversies and to the interdependence between theoretical activity and the developmentof statistical and econometric methods. (2) To overcome the existing divide betweenthe history of macroeconomic theories and the history of quantitative methods. Throughits epistemological perspective, my work reconciles these two historiographies and specifiesthe basis for a comprehensive understanding of recent developments in macroeconomics.(3) To put the accent on the external validity condition as the main controversial issue separating different views of macro-modeling methodology. Furthermore, I illustrate how the debate about external validity is closely related to the problem of casual explanation and, finally, to the conditions for providing economic policy evaluation. (4) To characterize the DSGE approach: although DSGE models are often presented as a“synthesis”, or as a “consensus”, they are better described as a shaky compromise between two opposing methodological visions.

近年隨著油價、物價上漲所導致的通貨膨脹風險，壽險業者以增額型終身壽險來吸引潛在消費者。另外，由於醫療技術的進步，使得死亡率逐年改善，因此將造成保單在設計時可能將遭受到長壽風險的影響。本篇文章的主要目的即探討長壽風險對於保單責任準備金的影響，並以增額型終身壽險作為本文主要分析標的。首先建構死亡率模型(Lee-Carter模型)，用來配適並模擬死亡率，接著探討增額型終身壽險在各保單年度下之現金流量以及責任準備金的提存，進一步再引進不同的死亡率來探討其現金流量分佈情形與責任準備金之提存。本文研究結果發現，在保險公司未採用遞迴方式計算保費時，當繳費期間愈短、複利利率愈高以及投保年齡愈低時，保險公司所面臨之長壽風險愈大，其後在帶入各種不同死亡率模型，發現死亡改善率愈高，保險公司所面臨之長壽風險愈大，而保險公司在提存責任準備金時，並未考慮到死亡改善率的部分，此對保險公司的財務健全將造成隱憂，本文於此部分建議監理機關透過法規(RBC)的制訂，調整準備金提存的係數，以降低長壽風險對保險公司財務之衝擊。 關鍵字：長壽風險、死亡率模型、增額型終身壽險、保單責任準備金、增額準備金、Lee-Carter Model以及RBC制度。 / With the improvement of medical technology, the life expectancy around the world is increasing year by year during the past decade. Therefore, the increasing whole life insurance policy is popular during these years because its benefits are escalating with time and policyholders think they could gain more benefits when they live longer. Like annuity policies, the increasing whole life insurance could also suffer from the longevity risk, which may have enormous impact on the financial statements of insurers. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the impact of longevity risk on reserves, based on increasing whole life insurance policy. First, we construct Lee-Carter model to fit and simulate mortality rate and assume different mortality improvements from the 2002 Taiwan Standard Ordinary Experience Mortality Table (2002TSO) for further comparisons. And then, we construct a simple model to analyze the cash flows of the increasing whole life policies based on the mortality rates we observed. By constructing a simple model and simulation, we find that if the insurance company does not correctly estimate longevity risk, the insurance company will lose money on the increasing whole life policies. In order to mitigate the insufficiency of life insurers for the increasing whole life policies, we try to provide some supervision suggestion from the view of the risk-based capital (RBC) requirements. We calculate the factor of insurance risk (C2) of RBC requirements because this factor represents the surplus needed to provide for excess claims over expected, both from random fluctuations and from inaccurate pricing for future levels of claims. Keywords: longevity risk, increasing whole life insurance policy, Lee-Carter model, risk-based capital (RBC).

Ziel dieser In-vitro-Studie war es, die Leistungsfähigkeit von kunststoffbasierten CAD/CAM-Kompositen für die Herstellung von langzeitprovisorischem, festsitzendem Zahnersatz (FDP) zu analysieren und sie hinsichtlich ihrer Langzeitstabilität mit anderen handelsüblichen Alternativmaterialien zu vergleichen. Vier CAD/CAM-Materialien [Structur CAD (SC), VITA CAD-Temp (CT), Grandio disc (GD) und Lava Esthetic (LE)] und zwei direkte RBC's [(Structur 3 (S3) und LuxaCrown (LC)] wurden zur Herstellung von dreigliedrigen Brücken verwendet. 10/20 Brücken wurden einer Alterungssimulation mittels Thermocycling und mechanischer Belastung durch Kausimulation unterzogen und die anderen 10 Brücken wurden in destilliertem Wasser gelagert. Zwei Brücken von jedem Material wurden vor und nach der Kausimulation einer zusätzlichen Bilddiagnostik unterzogen. Die Bruchbelastung wurde gemessen und die Daten wurden statistisch ausgewertet.:Inhaltsverzeichnis 1. Einführung 1 1.1 Einleitung 1 1.2 Werkstoffe auf Kunststoffbasis für die subtraktive CAD/CAM-Technologie 3 1.3 Werkstoffbezogene Parameter 5 1.3.1 Zeitraffende Beanspruchung 6 1.3.2 Abrasion 7 1.3.3 Oberflächenrauheit 8 1.3.4 Mikrostruktur 9 1.3.5 Mechanische Belastbarkeit 10 1.4 Zielsetzung und Fragestellung der vorliegenden Studie 10 2. Publikationsmanuskript 12 3. Zusammenfassung der Arbeit 28 4. Literaturverzeichnis 32 5. Anlagen 38 5.1 Darstellung des eigenen Beitrags zur Publikationspromotion 38 5.2 Erklärung über die eigenständige Abfassung der Arbeit 39

行政院會於民國八十八年十二月十六日通過保險法修正草案，修正草案中針對強化保險業之監理機制與增進保戶大眾之權益係以強化其資本適足性為其修法目標，所採之方法即建立風險基礎資本額制（Risk-based Capital, RBC）。而保險法修正案於民國九十年六月二十六日業已經立法院三讀通過，基於保險法相關條文規定，RBC制度將於民國九十二年中實施。 另一方面，美國經濟、社會及投資環境和台灣不盡相同，若將此制度直接或稍加修改即套用於台灣，將可能造成不切實際與誤導的作用，其結果不僅可能無法有效規範及避免保險公司失卻清償能力，亦可能因而造成龐大的社會成本，反而和當初建立RBC制度之原意背道而馳。因此，本論文即依循台灣產險業之產業特性制訂一套合宜之產險RBC制度，其中包括各個適當之風險項目及所屬之風險係數。 本論文在資產風險部分結合風險值（Value at risk, VaR）來計算資產之風險係數；在準備金風險以及自留保費收入風險則依照美國RBC制度之原始公式重新計算得來，惟準備金風險部分實因資料取得限制無法順利求出，為求模型完整性此部分本論文以財政部草案取代之；而於自留保費收入風險方面是採險種別及公司別。 研究結果發現：台灣產險的風險係數確實和美國產險的風險係數是有相當的差異，並且須根據台灣產業的經驗及配合我國的社會、經濟、投資環境並經由實際的運算才能得到適切的風險係數；而以論文所建立之RBC模型試算於各公司之風險基礎資本比則多有偏低之情形。 / Legislative Yuan has pass the draft of Insurance Law on June 26, 2001. In order to strengthen insurance regulation mechanism and to protect the insureds' benefit, the Risk-based Capital will be implemented in Taiwan Insurance market in 2003. On the other way, the economic environment and investment markets in United State are different from those in Taiwan. If we directly imitate their RBC system in Taiwan, the outcome would be impractical. It not only can't regulate the insurers effectively, but also may cause huge social cost. Therefore, the purpose of the thesis is to establish a suitable risk items and suitable risk factors for Property-Liability insurance in Taiwan by our own empirical data. This study finds that risk factors are significant different between Taiwan and American for Property-Liability insurance industry. The risk factors of the RBC system in Taiwan must depend on our own empirical data. I used the RBC model built in the thesis to test every Property-Liability company in Taiwan, and found that calculated Risk-based Capital ratios were relatively low.

財務再保險在再保險市場中是一個新的名詞，國內保險業都不甚瞭解；但在國外，財務再保險的市場卻有增加的趨勢。本文以研究「人壽保險公司」為對象，首先對「財務再保險」加以定義，並介紹其種類、功能等。接著探討財務再保險與其它金融商品的比較；同時，我們將以本國人壽保險公司為樣本，分析其財務報表，找出較需要資本的公司來做模擬，探討其實施財務再保險後財務報表變化的情形。最後，總結全文，提出結論，並對本文所得結果做出一些建議，以作為我國實施財務再保險之參考。 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究限制與研究架構 2 第二章 財務再保險之介紹 5 第一節 發展背景 5 第二節 財務再保險的意義 9 第三節 財務再保險的種類 11 第四節 財務再保險的功能 25 第五節 相關問題探討 31 第三章 財務再保險與其它金融工具之比較 38 第一節 與傳統再保險之比較 38 第二節 與其它融資策略之比較 41 第三節 與衍生性金融商品之比較 50 第四章 財務再保險模擬在我國壽險公司之結果 55 第一節 壽險資本適足性之理論基礎 55 第二節 財務再保險之假設 60 第三節 模擬財務再保險之結果 62 第四節 小結 65 第五章 結論與建議 69 第一節 結論 69 第二節 建議 71 第三節 後續研究的建議 72 附 錄(一) YRT財務再保險與傳統再保險之比較 75 附 錄(二) 共同保險與修正制共同保險財務再保後之結果 78 附 錄(三) 發行公司債之作業流程 88 附 錄(四) 公開發行與申請上市 91 附 錄(五) 依保險法規定應增加資本額度試算表 93 附 錄(六) 台灣壽險業風險基礎資本比試算表 95 附 錄(七) 財務再保險可釋放之盈餘 96 附 錄(八) 依我國監理制度財務再保險後之變化表 98 附 錄(九) 依美國RBC監理制度財務再保險後之變化表 99 附 錄(十) 財務再保險合約範例 102 參考文獻 115 / Financial reinsurance is an innovative alternative to so-called traditional forms of reinsurance, and its recent popularity has led to a significant rise in premiums devoted to this category. It is a practical risk management tool, especially useful when the motivations of the reinsured insurance company are centered not only on cost effectively managing underwriting risk but also on explicitly recognizing and addressing other financially oriented risks such as credit, investment and timing risks. We would like to perform a study on the innovative alternative and to try to apply it to life insurance company in Taiwan. Reinsurance is a versatile tool for financial planning. Financial reinsurance is an innovative one in the categories of reinsurance. Unlike the traditional form of reinsurance, financial reinsurance is structured to provide the desired financial objective while the risk transfer element is very carefully controlled. The transaction is not to make a loan from a reinsurer, but it provides a useful tool to improve the ceding company's current statutory earnings and surplus position. Recently, some of new domestic life insurers are facing surplus strains. Most of them have to raise capitals over billions of NT dollars to meet the required regulations setup by MOF. Instead of raising capital, financial reinsurance is demonstrated later in this paper to accomplish the "surplus relief" objective. In this hypothetical example, we conclude that the other things being equal, the more policy reserves a company bears, the greater performance a financial reinsurance achieves. The insurance industry has limited capital and must use it efficiently in order to provide adequately for the insurance needs of the public. Financial reinsurance is maturing in the developed countries. We believe that the accounting treatment prescribed by the authorities is reasonably developed and consistently applied, the attractiveness of financial reinsurance products is in sight.

保險法第146條之4規範國外投資總額最高不得超過各該保險業資金45%，而2014年修正增列保險業依保險法規定投資於國內證券市場上市或上櫃買賣之外幣計價股權或債券憑證之投資金額，可不計入其國外投資限額。且因我國市場長期處於低利環境，壽險業即大量以台幣作為融資貨幣買入國外高利率環境下之標的貨幣進行利差交易，本研究擬以經濟資產模型進行資產與負債之模擬，衡量壽險公司的經濟資本與清償風險。 依據現行壽險公司資金運用決定投資之標的，並以Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (1985)模型模擬國內外短期利率，在無拋補利率平價說下建立匯率模型，以Heston (1993)隨機過程描述資產的變化，並考量壽險公司投資策略決定投資比率，再加入資產之相關性進行模擬；以與壽險公司投資連結之利率變動型年金為商品，加入各項風險因子進行負債價值模擬，諸如死亡率、解約率等因子；資產與負債皆在風險中立測度下以蒙地卡羅法進行模擬10,000次，探討公允價值下壽險公司之清償能力。 而現行清償能力指標為資本適足比率，但此標準下尚無法完整考慮各風險之相關性，本研究除考量資本適足比率中風險資本總額，亦加入經濟資本進行分析，可得以下結果： I.現行RBC風險資本總額介於VaR 99.5%與95%所計算之經濟資本間。 II.當匯率波動度與國外投資比例增加時，經濟資本亦將顯著增加。 III.隨國外債券投資比例增加，風險資本總額增加之幅度亦會加速成長。 IV.利率變動型年金商品宣告利率之擬定將顯著影響公司面臨之違約風險。 / The amendment of Article 146-4 of Insurance Act extended the overseas investment ceiling in 2014 that the International Bond was not included to be counted in overseas investment. Since we have been suffering from the low interest rate for a long time, life insurance industry often uses carry trade to enlarge their earnings. In this paper, the investment targets are chosen on the basis of the current life insurance industry. We simulate the short-term interest rate based on Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (1985) model, establish the exchange rate model by Uncovered Interest Rate Parity, and use Heston (1993) model to simulate stochastic process of assets. Then we consider the life insurance industry’s investment strategy to determine the investment ratio and also import the asset correlation into our models. The interest sensitive annuity policies we used to evaluate the liabilities are linked with life insurance companies’ investment. Some risk factors are also been considered, such as mortality, surrender rate and other factors. Through Monte Carlo simulations by 10,000 times, we analysis the life insurance companies’ solvency under risk neutral measurement by using Risk-Based Capital and Economic Capital. The results show that： I.Risk-Based Capital is between Economic Capital calculated by VaR 99.5% and 95%. II.When the volatility of exchange rate and overseas investment ratio increase, the Economic Capital will also increase significantly. III.With the increase in the proportion of foreign bond investment, the increase in the Risk-Based Capital will accelerate the growth. IV.The declaring interest rate of interest sensitive annuity policy will significantly affect the default risk faced by the life insurance company.

截至2016年的統計資料，我國產險與壽險業的保險公司家數來到54家，保險業資產總額佔了全台灣所有金融機構總資產的31.78%，資產規模來到新台幣22.6兆元，在如此龐大的資產規模下，保險公司的投資組合管理變成相當的重要，重點漸漸的從投資在什麼樣的商品可以讓資金獲取最大效益轉移到了投資後的管理與部位的調整，以避免不必要的非系統性風險，有鑑於此，台灣在2003年實施了RBC制度，讓保險公司的投資組合的分配有所依據，不過仍然免不了過度集中在某些資產的問題，所以本研究的目的在於能否運用風險集中度的概念來判斷投資組合是否過度集中，而不僅僅只有投資金額的比例來做判斷。 本論文的研究方法會根據各家保險公司的實際投資組合以每半年或每年的型式分別計算Marginal Risk Contribution(MRC)的値，並且進行分析後再以Herfindahl-Hirschman Index(HHI)與 Gini Index 來檢視長期資產組合集中度的趨勢，最後的研究結果可以發現若是從邊際風險貢獻的比例來看，各保險公司的風險分布主要是集中在國內上市普通股與ETF、海內外不動產投資、國外已開發國家或新興市場上市普通股與ETF以及A評等的國外固定收益債券，而利用HHI與Gini Index兩個指標來看，各保險公司的資產集中度是逐年上升的。 / According to the statistical data in 2016, there are 54 insurance companies which includes property and casualty insurance company and life insurance company. And the scale of insurance asset is NTD 2,260 billion, accounting for 31.78% of whole asset of financial institution in Taiwan. Under huge amount of asset, the portfolio management for insurance company become more and more important. The key points of this issue are transferring to the ratio of portfolio management from choosing asset class to get maximum profit in order to avoid the nonsystematic risk gradually. Therefore, the Risk-based Capital policy has established in 2003 in Taiwan. The ratio of the insurance companies’ portfolio had the reference to allocate. However, there were some issues about the excessive concentration of some asset classes. So, the target of this study is using the concept of the risk concentration to judge the portfolio too concentrated or not. Not just judge it by its amount invested. The research process of this thesis is to calculate the marginal risk contribution value of the insurance companies’ portfolio every half a year or every year. Moreover, using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) & Gini Index to observe the trend of long term portfolio concentration. From the marginal risk contribution ratio. We can found the result of this study is the risk concentrated on the domestic listed common stock & ETF, domestic or foreign Real Estate, foreign developed market or emerging market listed common stock & ETF and fixed income bond (A rating). Besides, using the Herfindahl – Hirschman index and Gini index. The concentrated ratio of insurance companies’ portfolio were raising recent years.

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