We study the effect of the size of the welfare state on family outcomes in OECD member countries. Exploiting exogenous variation in public social spending, due to varying degrees of political fractionalization (i.e. the number of relevant parties involved in the legislative process), we show that an expansion in the welfare state increases the fertility, marriage, and divorce rates with a quantitatively stronger effect on the marriage rate. We conclude that the welfare state supports family formation. Nevertheless, we also find that the welfare state decouples marriage and fertility, and therefore, alters the organization of the family. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

L’offerta di servizi di microcredito da parte di istituzioni di microfinanza contribuisce ad aumentare l’accesso al credito di una clientela rurale ed accrescere l’efficienza dei mercati locali del credito? Questo studio prova a rispondere alla precedente domanda attraverso lo sviluppo di un modello teorico e l’analisi empirica sulla base di dati raccolti in un villaggio dell’Etiopia. In un mercato finanziario duale (formale/informale), il modello teorico indica che, nonostante non tutti i membri dell’ accordo informale ottengano un microcredito dall’intermediario formale, ogni membro dell’istituzione informale ne beneficia. Infatti, i membri che si trovano in condizione di deficit finanziario beneficiano direttamente di maggiori risorse derivanti dal prestito mentre gli altri membri godono di vincoli di partecipazione meno stringenti. Inoltre, quando il tasso di interesse sui prestiti formali si riduce, aumenta sia l’utilità dei prenditori di fondi che quella di tutti gli altri membri dell’istituzione informale. Gli intermediari formali sottraggono mercato alle istituzioni informali in una misura che dipende dall’ammontare del microcredito e dal tasso di interesse. I dati raccolti nel villaggio rurale etiope confermano solo parzialmente le considerazioni teoriche. In primo luogo, a causa di un diverso ammontare e di una diversa scadenza dei prestiti formali rispetto a quelli informali, nel villaggio i due mercati sembrano complementari. In secondo luogo, l’approccio del prestito di gruppo sembra replicare gli stessi processi di monitoraggio e selezione delle istituzioni informali e pertanto le famiglie a basso reddito rimangono vincolate nell’accesso al credito. In conclusione, se le istituzioni di microfinanza volessero operare con successo nelle aree rurali, dovrebbero, per prima cosa, studiare i processi di selezione dei membri all’interno delle istituzioni informali e, per seconda cosa, offrire una più ampia gamma di prodotti finanziari oltre al credito, come ad esempio prodotti di risparmio e prodotti assicurativi. / Does the provision of formal microcredit increase access to credit of rural clients and efficiency of credit markets? This study tackles this question through the development of a theoretical model and an empirical analysis in an Ethiopian village. In a dual (formal/informal) financial market, the theoretical model suggests that when some members of the informal arrangement get a formal loan, all members benefit from it. The agents who have a current deficit have greater financial resources whereas the agents who have an expected future deficit enjoy looser participation constraints. Furthermore, when the interest rate charged on formal loans decreases, the utility of not only borrowing members but all members in the arrangement increases. Besides, the formal market crowds out the informal market to some extent as long as the formal loan size increases or the interest rate decreases. Evidence from the rural village in southern Ethiopia only weakly confirms the theoretical results because of two reasons. First, due to different size and maturity of loans, the formal microcredit services and the informal risk sharing arrangements appear to be complements in the local market. Second, the group lending approach seems to replicate the same selection and monitoring processes of the informal arrangements and the low-income households remain constrained in their access to credit. Therefore, MFIs that want to operate successfully in rural areas should, first, make an assessment of self-selection processes in the informal arrangements and, second, provide a wider range of financial products besides credit, such as savings and insurance products.

本文研究目的是在探討跨國的投資者在面對國際投資日益開放的同時，是否充分的利用國際上的資產市場以分散投資者所面對的風險。本文參考Brandt, Cochrane, and Santa-Clara（2006），建立一種衡量國際間風險分散程度的風險分散指數，並以台灣為本國基準，取台灣前三大貿易夥伴：美國、日本、中國為外國基準，以分析此四國的國際風險分散指數，衡量的標的為各國資產市場中的主要股票交易市場指數報酬率，以分析各國風險分散的情形。此外我們亦嘗試解釋國際間風險分散的情形並解釋我們所計算出的結果，並進行一些模型參數的演算，以分析在面對其他總體變化時將會遇到的情形。經由本文的實證研究發現，對於台灣而言，在國際間的風險分散程度是偏高的，亦即，面對此四國的資產市場，台灣投資者的投資配置符合風險分散的趨勢，當匯率波動愈小時，國際風險分散程度亦將愈高，大致上與Brandt et al.(2006)之以美國為本國基準所得之國際風險分散程度結果相似。 / This thesis tries to discuss if risks are shared internationally by the international asset markets. This study refers to the Brandt, Cochrane, and Santa-Clara (2006) which built an international risk sharing index to measure the degree of international risk sharing. We set up a international risk sharing indices between Taiwan and its important trading partners, US, Japan and China by the asset returns composed by the main stock indices in each country. Furthermore, we try to explain the empirical results and to show how the degree of international risk sharing will different with the changes of the macro-variables. Our empirical analyses find that the degree of the international risk sharing for Taiwan using asset-based method is better than we think. In addition, the empirical results of this thesis are similar to Brandt et al. (2006) that if the volatility of exchange rates declines, the degree of the international risk sharing will be better.

Esta tesis elabora una caracterización teórica de problemas de agencia dinámicos, basada en métodos recursivos duales. Respecto a las actuales estrategias de solución, la mayor ventaja de mi método es la posibilidad de analizar modelos complicados con muchas variables de estado, como es el caso en muchas situaciones macroeconómicas. El primer Capitulo introduce la metodología y presenta algunos ejemplos numéricos. El segundo Capitulo caracteriza contratos óptimos de participación al riesgo, en los dos casos de economía de dotación y de economía con producción, y demuestra que el método es muy simple en su aplicación a estos problemas. El tercer Capitulo analiza el seguro óptimo de desempleo bajo diferentes supuestos sobre el acceso al mercado financiero y la evolución del capital humano. / This thesis elaborates a theoretical characterization of general dynamic agency problems based on recursive duality methods. With respect to current solution strategies, the main advantage of my approach is the possibility to analyze complicated models with many state variables, as it is the case in several macroeconomic situations. The first Chapter introduces the methodology and provides some numerical example. The second Chapter provides a characterization of optimal risk sharing contracts both in endowment and production economies, and shows how the approach is easy to apply to these problems. The third Chapter analyzes optimal unemployment insurance under different assumptions on access to financial markets and human capital trends.

In this thesis I evaluate the departures of three common assumptions in macroeconomic modeling and estimation, namely the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis, the representative agent assumption and the use of first-order approximations in the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. In the first chapter I determine how the use of survey data on inflation expectations in the estimation of a model alters the evaluation of the RE assumption in comparison to an alternative assumption, namely learning. In chapter two, I use heterogeneous agent models to determine the relationship between income volatility and the demand for durable goods. In the third chapter I evaluate if the use of first-order approximations in the estimation of a model could affect the evaluation of the determinants of the Great Moderation. / En esta tesis analizo desvíos de tres supuestos comunes en la elaboración y estimación de modelos macroeconómicos. Estos supuestos son la Hipótesis de Expectativas Racionales (ER), el supuesto del Agente Representativo, y el uso de aproximaciones de primer orden en la estimación de los modelos de equilibrio general. En el primer capítulo determino como el empleo de datos de expectativas de inflación en la estimación de un modelo puede alterar la evaluación del supuesto de ER en comparación a un supuesto alternativo como learning. En el segundo capítulo, utilizo modelos de agentes heterogéneos para determinar la relación entre la volatilidad de los ingresos y la demanda de bienes durables. En el tercer capítulo, analizo si el uso de aproximaciones de primer orden afecta la evaluación de los determinantes de la Gran Moderación.

A presente tese realiza uma análise interdisciplinar dos contratos de aliança, arranjos colaborativos desenvolvidos a partir do início da década de 90, cujo objetivo é a implantação de projetos complexos industriais e de infraestrutura. Este trabalho investiga a percepção do autor de que o modelo proposto pelos contratos de aliança, em regra, promove um esvaziamento voluntário da função do contrato como ferramenta de aplicação, ainda que potencial, de sanções a comportamentos culposos, justamente com o fim de não prejudicar a construção natural de uma relação cooperativa. Busca-se ainda compreender a função desempenhada pelo contrato e pelo direito contratual, nesse contexto colaborativo, e qual a relação entre os mecanismos formais e informais de garantia de cumprimento contratual. Sustenta-se que, nesse universo, o aparato formal do contrato auxilia as ferramentas informais de enforcement, fornecendo o arcabouço de troca de informações essencial à criação endógena de confiança. Ademais, a fim de não prejudicar o ambiente cooperativo, sustenta-se a aplicação de sanções contratuais formais somente em situações excepcionais, geralmente caracterizadas pelo elemento de quebra de confiança. Sugere-se, ao longo da tese, que uma abordagem processual de regulação do contrato a qual permite sanção de comportamentos que descumpram o procedimento contratual acordado seria mais adequada do que uma abordagem estritamente substantiva que proteja a relação inicial de troca. Ao final, amparada pelas percepções construídas ao longo da pesquisa, é realizada uma reflexão jurídico-dogmática, na qual, após a contextualização jurídica dos contratos de aliança, lhes são sugeridas interpretações de aplicação de conceitos da teoria obrigacional, e de ferramentas de organização de interesses intracontratuais, como a boa-fé, o conflito de interesses e os deveres fiduciários. / This thesis conducts an interdisciplinary analysis of project alliancing, collaborative arrangements developed as of the beginning of the 90s, whose goal is the implementation of complex industrial and infrastructure projects. This work investigates the perception of the author that the model proposed by alliance contracts, in general, promotes a voluntary emptying of the role of the contract in punishing, even potentially, unintentional contractual defaults, as a means of not harming the natural construction of a cooperative relation. The work seeks to understand the role played by the contract and the contractual law, in such collaborative environment, and what is the relation between formal and informal mechanisms of contractual enforcement. It argues that, in this universe, formal contractual apparatus supports informal contractual enforcement mechanisms, providing a governance framework that allows information exchange, which is essential to the endogenous creation of trust. Moreover, in order not to jeopardize the cooperative environment, this thesis suggests the suitability of formal contractual punishment only in exceptional circumstances, often characterized by the breach of trust. It is suggested, along the thesis, that a procedural approach of contract regulation which allows punishment of behaviors that deviates from agreed contractual procedures may be more suitable than a strictly substantive approach that protects the initial exchange relation. At the end, supported by the perceptions constructed along the research, some legal-dogmatic considerations are made, in which, after legally qualifying the alliance contracts, it is suggested to it some applicative interpretations of concepts of obligational theory, and organizational tools of intracontractual interests, such as good faith, conflicts of interest and fiduciary duties.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2018-07-13T14:40:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 rafaelgomesteixeira.pdf: 1635376 bytes, checksum: 0f010ba2c1ce9a5dac0a0799cbe7298e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-09-03T16:16:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 rafaelgomesteixeira.pdf: 1635376 bytes, checksum: 0f010ba2c1ce9a5dac0a0799cbe7298e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-03T16:16:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 rafaelgomesteixeira.pdf: 1635376 bytes, checksum: 0f010ba2c1ce9a5dac0a0799cbe7298e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-06-14 / Desde o trabalho pioneiro de Markowitz (1952) que demonstrou que risco e retorno devem ser avaliados simultaneamente, sendo o retorno a variável a ser maximizada e o risco o fator a ser minimizado, investidores têm buscado controlar e reduzir o risco ao qual estão expostos. A solução proposta pelo autor foi a diversificação dos investimentos onde um ativo deve ser avaliado conforme o comportamento de sua covariância com relação aos demais ativos. Seguindo a lógica de Markowitz, acionistas deveriam diversificar a sua carteira de ações de forma a limitar a sua exposição ao risco. Mas seria possível que o risco dos acionistas, numa única empresa, fosse reduzido a partir de uma transferência de risco para os credores? Isto seria factível considerando a proposição II de Modigliani e Miller (1958,1963) segundo a qual o valor da firma independe da sua estrutura de capital. Utilizando o índice beta (procedente do modelo CAPM, desenvolvido inicialmente por Sharpe (1964) a partir dos estudos de Markowitz) como uma boa medida de risco, e considerando que é possível estimar o valor de mercado da dívida corporativa através do modelo de Merton (1974), no qual os acionistas são identificados como detentores de uma opção de compra sobre os ativos da firma, estimou-se o valor do índice beta da dívida corporativa pelo cálculo da covariância de seu retorno com o retorno da carteira de mercado. Utilizando o modelo de Conine (1980) foi simulada uma situação hipotética de modo a verificar se haveria uma transferência de risco entre acionistas e credores. O resultado encontrado foi comparado com um estudo econométrico onde o risco da dívida foi regredido contra o risco do acionista e outras variáveis de controle. A principal conclusão deste estudo foi que índice beta do acionista e o índice beta da dívida corporativa tendem a se movimentar em direções oposta, considerando os casos onde foi possível aplicar o modelo de Merton (1974). Assim, pode-se afirmar que uma redução do risco dos acionistas propende a aumentar o risco dos credores. / Since Markowitz's (1952) pioneering paper has shown that risk and return must be evaluated simultaneously, with return being the variable to be maximized and risk being the factor to be minimized, investors have sought to control and reduce the risk to which they are exposed. The solution proposed by the author was the diversification of investments where an asset should be evaluated according to the behavior of its covariance among other assets. Following Markowitz's ideas, shareholders should diversify their stock portfolio in order to limit their exposure to risk. But is it possible the risk of shareholders in a single company could be reduced by transferring risk to creditors? This would be feasible considering Proposition II of Modigliani and Miller (1958, 1963) according to which the firm's value is independent of its capital structure. Using the beta index (from the CAPM model, initially developed by Sharpe (1964) from the Markowitz studies) as a good measure of risk, and considering that it is possible to estimate the market value of corporate debt employing the Merton model (1974), in which the shareholders are identified as holders of a call option on the assets of the firm, the beta value of the corporate debt was estimated by calculating the covariance of its return with the return of the market portfolio. Using the Conine (1980) model, a hypothetical situation was simulated to check if there would be a risk transfer between shareholders and creditors. The result was compared to an econometric model where the risk of debt was regressed on the risk of the shareholder and other control variables. The main conclusion of this study was that the shareholder beta index and the corporate debt beta index tend to move in opposite directions, considering the cases where it was possible to apply the Merton model (1974). Therefore, it can be stated that a reduction in shareholder risk tends to increase the risk of creditors.

This thesis consists of four self-contained papers on job turnover, productivity and state- local finance. Paper [I] deals with the determinants of the rate of job turnover defined as the change in distribution of employment between and within industries in Swedish manufacturing. The rate of inter-industry job turnover is driven by the dispersion of profit changes among industries. Shifts in international competitiveness among industries seem to play a central role in the explanation of this pattern. The rate of intra-industry job turnover has been higher in industries with many small plants, low profit margins and high import penetration. Paper [II] analyzes the impact of openness on total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Using Swedish industry level data the results show that economically integrated industries tend to be more engaged in research and development (R&D) and have more entry and exit activity than other industries. The domestic R&D intensity does not contribute to the TFP growth rate. Instead, the results imply that openness to international markets, which helps facilitate technology spillovers, has a significant impact on the growth rate. There is also some evidence suggesting that producers exiting the market are less productive, implying that such exits will increase the average productivity of the industry concerned. The purpose of Paper [III] is to design and implement a test of whether the external effect from tax base sharing among local and regional governments is internalized via the intergovernmental transfer system. The test is based on the observation that if the external effect is internalized, an increase in the income tax rate at one level of government will induce the other level to reduce its income tax rate by the corresponding amount, leaving the effective tax rate unchanged. By using panel data for the Swedish local and regional public sectors, we estimate the reaction function for the local income tax rate. The results imply that an increase in the regional income tax rate induces the municipalities in the region to decrease their income tax rates. In addition, we are able to reject the null hypothesis that the external effect from tax base sharing is internalized. Paper [IV] concerns risk-sharing, in terms of how the central government smooths personal income among municipalities via the tax and transfer systems. Using Swedish panel data, the results show that the national tax and transfer systems mitigate an adverse shock to income of one krona so that disposable income falls by 67 öre, on average. However, there are large differences across regions, where the effect on disposable income varies between 32 and 78 öre in the krona. / digitalisering@umu

L'objectif de cette thèse est de contribuer à la compréhension des enjeux de l'épargne salariale pour les politiques de rémunérations dans les entreprises en France. Une mise en perspective historique et théorique permet d'abord d'identifier les motivations conduisant les entreprises à développer un dispositif alliant l'intéressement et le PEE. Ensuite, nous explicitons à travers une modélisation théorique de type « Principal-Agent » les caractéristiques d'un contrat associant l'intéressement à un PEE. Les prédictions théoriques qui en découlent sont enfin validées par une étude empirique sur des données individuelles d'entreprises et de salariés. A partir d'une estimation par appariement sur le score de propension, les résultats révèlent que les entreprises qui intègrent à leurs politiques de rémunérations un dispositif alliant l'intéressement et le PEE versent en moyenne des salaires de base plus faibles, compensés par le versement d'une prime d'intéressement. Par ailleurs, celui-ci s'accompagne d'un impact positif et significatif sur le profit mais d'un effet non significatif sur la productivité du travail des entreprises. Il existe néanmoins une corrélation positive entre la mise en œuvre du dispositif et la productivité du travail pouvant avoir pour origine un effet de sélection. Ces travaux nous invitent à défendre la thèse selon laquelle l'instauration par les entreprises d'un dispositif alliant le partage du profit et le PEE vise non seulement des effets d'incitation mais aussi des objectifs de maîtrise des coûts salariaux. Au-delà, lorsque le PEE donne lieu à la constitution de l'actionnariat salarié, il permet aux entreprises de poursuivre des objectifs de stabilisation du capital. / This dissertation aims at shedding a new light on the analysis of the effects of profit sharing and employee ownership plan on wages practices in France. We firstly purpose a survey of the theoretical foundations of profit sharing and employee ownership plan. By considering institutional and macroeconomic changes in France since 1980, we secondly develop an historical analysis of the financial participation. In this context, we argue that a system based on both profit sharing and employee ownership plan is not only designed as an effort incentive scheme but also as a risk transfer device. We thirdly develop a Principal-Agent model to determine the optimal characteristics of a contract based on both profit sharing and employee ownership plan. Our hypothesis is then tested on an original matched employer-employee database concerning French firms. Using a Propensity Score Matching method which allows controlling for potential selection bias, we show that such a contract has no significant impact on the labour productivity but a positive one on the firm's benefit. We finally find a negative impact on the employee's base wage but no significant effect on the total earnings.

Dans cette thèse, les déterminants des trajectoires éducationnelles et professionnelles des jeunes dans les pays en développement sont examinés, avec un accent particulier mis sur les relations au sein du ménage. Le premier chapitre fournit une revue des contributions théoriques et empiriques de la littérature autour du concept de transition de l'éducation au marché du travail dans les pays en voie de développement. Le deuxième chapitre développe un modèle d'équilibre général calculable, appliqué de manière rétrospective à l'économie de la Malaisie, dans l'optique d'étudier les conséquences sur le marché du travail du progrès technique biaisé et d'une politique éducative de masse. Les chapitres suivants s'interrogent sur les interactions au sein des ménages et leurs impacts lors de chocs. Un accent est ici mis sur le travail des enfants ainsi que sur leur scolarisation. Les résultats soulignent d’importantes externalités et une absorption hétérogène des chocs au niveau des ménages. L'évaluation de politiques publiques gagnerait à tenir compte de ces externalités intra-ménage. / This thesis seeks to promote our understanding of the constraints and opportunities facing youth as they transit through schooling and to the labor market. The first chapter provides a literature review of the theoretical and empirical contributions to what we know about school-to-work transitions in developing countries and their specificities. The following chapter builds a computable general equilibrium model that is applied to the Malaysian labor market, in order to study the impact of skill-biased technological change and educational policy on labor market evolutions. Subsequent chapters examine household interactions arising from exogenous shocks, from the angle of children’s work and schooling. The findings from these chapters point to the presence of important spillover effects and heterogeneous absorption of shocks in the household. Impact evaluation of policy would therefore benefit from the systematic incorporation of such household-level externalities.