New emission legislation regarding air pollution control, as instructed by the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) to Eskom Generation Power Stations, implies a particulate emission limit of 100 mg/Nm3 for all existing power stations by 2015 and 50 mg/Nm3 for all new and existing power stations by the year 2020. Some of Eskom’s power stations which are equipped with Electrostatic Precipitators (ESP’s) were not designed for this stringent legislation. It is also experienced that ESP’s and coal quality in Eskom have deteriorated over time, resulting in the performance of the ESP’s not meeting the legislative requirements. Eskom is in the process of introducing various ESP enhancement projects to improve performance and aligning the operating philosophy to comply with the more stringent particulate emission legislation. An ESP efficiency test was conducted at Lethabo Power Station to determine the current state of the plant and performance. The results of the test were compared with the original design base specifications to determine the relevant deficiencies which contribute to high emissions and poor ESP performance. It was aimed to develop an ESP simulation model and validate the outputs with the test data. This study endeavours to demonstrate the greater impact on ESP performance when the ESP is operated outside the design specification. It is further aimed to demonstrate that a solution to the problem of high emissions is not only contributed by the variables within the ESP itself. This study is a coal to stack evaluation considering the ESP variables and the upstream conditions of the ESP that form part of the entire process. The intention of this study is to demonstrate the importance of operating an ESP at the designed parameters and highlight the significance of proper maintenance. It was learned that before any ESP enhancement technology can be implemented, the ESP and upstream conditions must be in accordance with design specifications. The implementation of an ESP enhancement technology will have no merit or justification on a unit that is being operated outside of its design specifications. The results obtained from the ESP simulation model correlated well with the ESP efficiency test data. The expectation of the model to assist operators and engineers to operate ESP’s according to the designer’s specifications was conceded. / MIng (Mechanical Engineering), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

Atualmente, a água tornou-se motivo de conflitos dentro da sociedade, em virtude do aumento das demandas e do comprometimento do seu aspecto qualitativo. A bacia do rio Piracicaba é uma região altamente desenvolvida, com altos índices populacionais e que apresenta disputa de água entre os diversos usuários. Portanto, realizou-se um estudo para determinar a disponibilidade hídrica da bacia, relacionando as demandas de água aluais e futuras. Para isso foi utilizado o modelo ModSimP32, que é basicamente um modelo de simulação e otimização em rede de fluxo. Como dados de entrada do ModsimP32, estão as séries de vazões históricas ou sintéticas e os valores das demandas existentes na bacia. Como se pretendia realizar um estudo a longo prazo, foi necessário a obtenção de séries hidrológicas mais longas, portanto utilizou-se um modelo multivariado AR(1) para gerar novas séries. Para as simulações realizadas, verificou-se que em períodos secos não é possível atender a todas as demandas integralmente e ainda manter as vazões ecológicas no rio, para as regiões de Paulínea e Piracicaba. / Nowadays, the water became the reason of conflicts of the society, due to the increase of the demands and the implicated qualitative aspect. The basin of the river Piracicaba is a highly developed area, with high indexes populations anel it presents dispute of water among several users. Therefore it took place an analysis to verify the amount of water of the basin, relating the demands of water, current and future. For that the model ModSimP32 was used, that is basically a simulation and optimization model in supply network. Among the data of entrance of the ModsimP32, they are the hydrologic series. Therefore it was used of a multivariate model AR(1) to generate new series. For the accomplished simulations, it was verified that is not possible to assist the whole ones integrally the demands in dry periods and still to maintain the ecological flow in the river, for the areas of Paulínea and Piracicaba.

En växande global befolkning och stor efterfrågan på grödor driver den teknologiska utvecklingen framåt inom det moderna lantbruket. I sin utveckling av nya styr- och reglerfunktioner för frontlastare behövde Ålö AB en pålitlig och effektiv plantmodell av deras frontlastare Quicke Q5M. Plantmodellen skulle inkludera det tillhörande mekaniska och hydrauliska systemet och kunna rendera simulering och 3D-animering i realtid. En automatisk nedställningsfunktion för material skulle också utvecklas för att automatisera den vanligt förekommande sysslan att ställa ned material från en upphöjd position. En plantmodell för Quicke Q5M med ett lastkännande hydraulsystem utvecklades i MATLAB Simulink med Simscape Multibody och Simscape Fluids. Prestandan av den simulerade plantmodellen utvärderades. Plantmodellen visade grundläggande överensstämmelse när den jämfördes med sensordata från en frontlastare i verkligheten. En reglerfunktion för automatisk nedställning av material utvecklades i Simulink. En algoritm för att detektera kollision med mark konstruerades genom att analysera sensordata från en frontlastare i verkligheten som ställt ned material på marken. För att detektera materialets kontakt med mark utfördes hastighets- och accelerationsestimeringar på sensordata från vinkelgivare och trycksensorer. Vid kontakt med mark avslutades nedställningsrörelsen automatiskt. Prestandan och noggrannheten av reglersystemet under olika scenarion analyserades och diskuterades. Trots att simuleringar av plantmodellen och den föreslagna nedställningsfunktionen såg realistiska ut var det svårt att kvantifiera överensstämmelsen mellan plantmodell och frontlastare då inga utförligare fysiska tester hanns med. Framtida utveckling av plantmodell och nedställningsfunktion rekommenderas därför att börja med ett implementeringstest av reglerfunktionen i en traktor i verkligheten. Det skulle ge ett mått på hur pass bra plantmodellen representerar frontlastaren samt möjliggöra utvärdering och vidare justering av reglerfunktionens parametrar i en verklig fysisk miljö. / A growing global population and large demands for crops worldwide is driving agricultural technological advances forward. In developing new automatic control functions for front end loader applications, Ålö AB needed a reliable and effective plant model of their front end loader Quicke Q5M. The plant model should include the associated mechanical and hydraulic system and be capable of rendering simulation and 3D animation in real time. An automated put down control function would also be of benefit for farming operators, speeding up the commonly performed farming task of putting down material from an elevated position. A plant model for the Quicke Q5M with a Load Sensing hydraulic system was developed in MATLAB Simulink with Simscape Multibody and Simscape Fluids. The performance of the simulated plant model was evaluated. The plant model showed some consistent results when compared to sensor data logs from a real-world front end loader. An automatic put down control function for material was also developed and tested in Simulink. A collision detection algorithm was constructed by analyzing sensor data logs from a real-world tractor putting down material on the ground. Velocity and acceleration estimations were made from angular position and pressure sensors to detect the contact between material and ground. The control function automatically stopped the lowering movement when contact was detected. The performance and accuracy of the control system under different scenarios were analyzed and discussed. Although the simulations of the plant model and proposed control function seemed realistic, the consistency of the plant model was hard to quantify since there was no time left for any thourough physical tests. It is recommended that future development of both the plant model and control system begin with an implementation test of the control system in a real-world tractor. This would help determine how accurately the plant model represents the front end loader. It would also allow evaluation and further tuning of the control function in a real physical environment.

Près de deux décennies, après la libéralisation de l’économie tunisienne, les disparités régionales se sont fortement accentuées. Les amples écarts de développement entre les régions du littoral et de l’intérieur sont révélateurs d’une grande hétérogénéité en termes de niveaux de revenus, de croissance, de chômage, de répartition entre activités à forte et à faible productivités et de pauvreté. Si les régions du littoral font partie de l’axe de compétitivité et constituent le centre des branches phares de l’industrie tunisienne, les autres régions de l’intérieur disposent de moins de compétences stratégiques et affichent des performances moyennes, voire même faibles. Aucun processus de convergence régionale n’est enclenché. L’objet de la thèse est de quantifier et d’appréhender les impacts macroéconomiques et microéconomiques de sept réformes de politiques économiques susceptibles de réduire les disparités régionales, dans le cadre d’une approche macro-micro. Approche qui conduit inévitablement à privilégier un cadre d’analyse qui se compose de deux modèles reliés: un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique et multirégional et un modèle de micro simulation. L’implémentation de ces deux modèles a permis de réaliser un exercice de projection et un autre de simulation. Le premier exercice a étudié l’évolution future de l’économie tunisienne, en absence de toutes réformes économiques et/ou choc exogène. Les résultats montrent que le clivage littoral-intérieur devrait s’accentuer si des mesures de correction ne sont pas mises en œuvre. Les résultats de simulation suggèrent qu’une politique de libéralisation commerciale bénéficie plus aux régions du littoral. Pour stimuler la croissance des régions de l’intérieur, il est préférable d’entreprendre des politiques de discrimination positive qui visent à augmenter leurs niveaux d’investissements public et surtout privé. Par ailleurs, la réduction de l’écart de performance économique entre le littoral et l’intérieur du pays ne peut se faire rapidement qu’au moyen d’un changement technologique important dans les régions de l’intérieur. Tous les scénarios envisagés dans ce travail rejettent la nécessité d’un arbitrage entre croissance et pauvreté régionales et confirment donc les possibilités d’une croissance pro-pauvre. / Almost two decades after the liberalization of the Tunisian economy, regional disparities have been accentuated severely and are expected to grow further. The existing gap between the coastal regions and those inland is showing high inequality in terms of levels of income, growth, unemployment, productivity and poverty. The industry in the littoral regions remains the most competitive leading the Tunisian industry, while other regions in the interior lag behind with fewer strategic competences and skills and medium or even low performance. Hence, the process of regional convergence has been broken rather than achieved. The purpose of this research is to assess and quantify the macroeconomic and microeconomic impacts of seven economic policies which aiming to reduce regional disparities in Tunisia. For that purpose, we will use a micro-macro based approach with two interconnected models: A multiregional dynamic general-equilibrium model and a micro-simulation model. The implementation of these two models has enabled a projection exercise and simulation one. The first exercise studied the future evolution of the Tunisian economy in its national and regional dimensions without any economic and / or exogenous shock reforms. The results show that the littoral-internal cleavage is expected to increase if corrective measures will not be implemented. Simulation results show that trade liberalization policy benefits more to coastal regions. However, to stimulate growth performance on behalf of inland regions, positive discrimination action policies, as public and especially private investment increase, will be necessary. Moreover, reducing the economic gap performance between the coast and the interior can be done quickly through a major technological change for regions in the interior. All scenarios in this study reject the possibility of trade-off between growth and regional poverty and thus confirm the potential for pro-poor growth.

Existing terrestrial carbon accounting models have mainly investigated atmosphere-vegetationsoil stocks and fluxes but have largely ignored the hydrological flux of organic carbon. It is generally assumed that biomass and soil carbon are the only relevant pools in a landscape ecosystem. However, recent findings have suggested that significant amounts of organic carbon can dissolve (dissolved organic carbon or DOC) or particulate (particulate organic carbon or POC) in water and enter the hydrological flux at the catchment scale. A significant quantity of total organic carbon (TOC) sequestered through photosynthesis may be exported from the landscape through the hydrological flux and stored in downstream stocks.¶ This thesis presents a catchment-scale case study investigation into the export of organic carbon through a river system in comparison with carbon that is produced by vegetation through photosynthesis. The Cotter River Catchment was selected as the case study. It is a forested catchment that experienced a major wildfire event in January 2003. The approach is based on an integration of a number of models. The main input data were time series of in-stream carbon measurements and remotely sensed vegetation greenness. The application of models to investigate diffuse chemical substances has dramatically increased in the past few years because of the significant role of hydrology in controlling ecosystem exchange. The research firstly discusses the use of a hydrological simulation model (IHACRES) to analyse organic carbon samples from stream and tributaries in the Cotter River Catchment case study. The IHACRES rainfall-runoff model and a regionalization method are used to estimate stream-flow for the 75 sub-catchments. The simulated streamflow data were used to calculate organic carbon loads from concentrations sampled at five locations in the catchment.¶ The gross primary productivity (GPP) of the vegetation cover in the catchment was estimated using a radiation use efficiency (RUE) model driven by MODIS TERRA data on vegetation greenness and modeled surface irradiance (RS). The relationship between total organic carbon discharged in-stream and total carbon uptake by plants was assessed using a cross-correlation analysis.¶ The IHACRES rainfall-runoff model was successfully calibrated at three gauged sites and performed well. The results of the calibration procedure were used in the regionalization method that enabled streamflow to be estimated at ungauged locations including the seven sampling sites and the 75 sub-catchment areas. The IHACRES modelling approach was found appropriate for investigating a wide range of issues related to the hydrological export of organic carbon at the catchment scale. A weekly sampling program was implemented to provide estimates of TOC, DOC and POC concentrations in the Cotter River Catchment between July 2003 and June 2004. The organic carbon load was estimated using an averaging method.¶ The rate of photosynthesis by vegetation (GPP) was successfully estimated using the radiation use efficiency model to discern general patterns of vegetation productivity at sub-catchment scales. This analysis required detailed spatial resolution of the GPP across the entire catchment area (comprising 75 sub-catchment areas) in addition to the sampling locations. Important factors that varied at the catchment scale during the sampling period July 2003 – June 2004, particularly the wildfire impacts, were also considered in this assessment. ¶ The results of the hydrologic modelling approach and terrestrial GPP outcome were compared using cross correlation and regression analysis. This comparison revealed the likely proportion of catchment GPP that contributes to in-stream hydrological flux of organic carbon. TOC Load was 0.45% of GPP and 22.5 - 25% of litter layer. As a result of this investigation and giving due consideration to the uncertainties in the approach, it can be concluded that the hydrological flux of organic carbon in a forested catchment is a function of gross primary productivity.

Characterizing the uncertainty in rainfall using stochastic models has been a challenging area of research in the field of operational hydrology for about half a century. Simulated sequences drawn from such models find use in a variety of hydrological applications. Traditionally, parametric models are used for simulating rainfall. But the parametric models are not parsimonious and have uncertainties associated with identification of model form, normalizing transformation, and parameter estimation. None of the models in vogue have gained universal acceptability among practising engineers. This may either be due to lack of confidence in the existing models, or the inability to adopt models proposed in literature because of their complexity or both. In the present study, a new nonparametric Matched Block Bootstrap (MABB) model is proposed for stochastic simulation of rainfall at daily time scale. It is based on conditional matching of blocks formed from the historical rainfall data using a set of predictors (conditioning variables) proposed for matching the blocks. The efficiency of the developed model is demonstrated through application to rainfall data from India, Australia, and USA. The performance of MABB is compared with two non-parametric rainfall simulation models, k-NN and ROG-RAG, for a site in Melbourne, Australia. The results showed that MABB model is a feasible alternative to ROG-RAG and k-NN models for simulating daily rainfall sequences for hydrologic applications. Further it is found that MABB and ROG-RAG models outperform k-NN model. The proposed MABB model preserved the summary statistics of rainfall and fraction of wet days at daily, monthly, seasonal and annual scales. It could also provide reasonable performance in simulating spell statistics. The MABB is parsimonious and requires less computational effort than ROG-RAG model. It reproduces probability density function (marginal distribution) fairly well due to its data driven nature. Results obtained for sites in India and U.S.A. show that the model is robust and promising.

No description available.

It is generally accepted that the Marginal Value Theorem (MVT) describes optimal foraging strategies. Some research findings, however, indicate that in natural conditions foragers not always behave according to the MVT. To address this inconsistency, in a series of computer simulations, I examined the behaviour of four types of foragers having specific foraging efficiencies and using the MVT and alternative strategies in 16 simulated landscapes in an ideal environment (no intra- and inter-species interactions). I used data on elk (Cervus elaphus) to construct the virtual forager. Contrary to the widely accepted understanding of the MVT, I found that in environments with the same average patch quality and varying average travel times between patches, patch residence times of some foragers were not affected by travel times. I propose a mechanism responsible for this observation and formulate the perfect forager theorem (PFT). I also introduce the concepts of a foraging coefficient (F) and foragers hub (), and formulate a model to describe the relationship between the perfect forager and other forager types. I identify situations where a forager aiming to choose an optimal foraging strategy and maximize its cumulative consumption should not follow the MVT. I describe these situations in a form of a mathematical model. I also demonstrate that the lack of biological realism and environmental noise are not required to explain the deviations from the MVT observed in field research, and explain the importance of scale in optimal foraging behaviour. I also demonstrate that smart foraging, which is a set of rules based on key ecological concepts: the functional response curve (FRC), satisficing, the MVT, and incorporates time limitations, should allow for fitness maximization. Thus, it should be an optimal behavior in the context of natural selection. I also demonstrate the importance of the FRC as a driver for foraging behaviors and argue that animals should focus more on increasing the slope of their FRC than on choosing a specific foraging strategy. Natural selection should, therefore, favor foragers with steep FRC. My findings introduce new concepts in behavioural ecology, have implications for animal ecology and inform wildlife management.

Atualmente, a água tornou-se motivo de conflitos dentro da sociedade, em virtude do aumento das demandas e do comprometimento do seu aspecto qualitativo. A bacia do rio Piracicaba é uma região altamente desenvolvida, com altos índices populacionais e que apresenta disputa de água entre os diversos usuários. Portanto, realizou-se um estudo para determinar a disponibilidade hídrica da bacia, relacionando as demandas de água aluais e futuras. Para isso foi utilizado o modelo ModSimP32, que é basicamente um modelo de simulação e otimização em rede de fluxo. Como dados de entrada do ModsimP32, estão as séries de vazões históricas ou sintéticas e os valores das demandas existentes na bacia. Como se pretendia realizar um estudo a longo prazo, foi necessário a obtenção de séries hidrológicas mais longas, portanto utilizou-se um modelo multivariado AR(1) para gerar novas séries. Para as simulações realizadas, verificou-se que em períodos secos não é possível atender a todas as demandas integralmente e ainda manter as vazões ecológicas no rio, para as regiões de Paulínea e Piracicaba. / Nowadays, the water became the reason of conflicts of the society, due to the increase of the demands and the implicated qualitative aspect. The basin of the river Piracicaba is a highly developed area, with high indexes populations anel it presents dispute of water among several users. Therefore it took place an analysis to verify the amount of water of the basin, relating the demands of water, current and future. For that the model ModSimP32 was used, that is basically a simulation and optimization model in supply network. Among the data of entrance of the ModsimP32, they are the hydrologic series. Therefore it was used of a multivariate model AR(1) to generate new series. For the accomplished simulations, it was verified that is not possible to assist the whole ones integrally the demands in dry periods and still to maintain the ecological flow in the river, for the areas of Paulínea and Piracicaba.

L’introduction des nouvelles machines frigorifiques à absorption des petites puissances ouvre des nouvelles perspectives pour les systèmes solaires multifonction multi-source (SYSMFS) qui exploitent le potentiel de l’énergie solaire pour le chauffage, le refroidissement et la préparation de l’eau chaude sanitaire (ECS). Les systèmes solaires combinés (SSC), qui ont précédés les SYSMFS, manquaient néanmoins une procédure adaptée pour le dimensionnement de leurs composants principaux : le panneau solaire et le ballon solaire de stockage thermique. De point de vue de l’énergie et du coût d’investissement et d’exploitation, une méthode de dimensionnement basée sur le pic de charge ne conviendrait pas si la source d’énergie n’est pas garantie d’être stable dans le temps. Une optimisation des composants principaux par la simulation peut être alors une solution clef pour le dimensionnement optimal de SYSMFS. À partir des informations sur les SSC trouvées dans la littérature et celles de fabricant de la machine frigorifique, un schéma hydraulique initial a été élaboré pour un SYSMFS. La modélisation de ce schéma est complexe car des simulations et des modifications répétitives ont été nécessaires pour éliminer les problèmes potentiels de convergence de la solution. A partir de cette expérience, une méthodologie de conception assistée par simulation a été élaborée afin d’en profiter pour des modélisations similaires. En tant que telle, le modèle devrait être prêt pour la phase l’optimisation. Une étude paramétrique a été menée sur le modèle SYSMFS ; elle offre les donnés requises pour la comparaison des algorithmes d’optimisation qui sont testés par la suite. Le résultat de cette étude est une surface de réponse qui représente le coût du SYSMFS en fonction de la superficie du panneau solaire et du volume de stockage thermique du ballon solaire. Pour réduire le nombre des simulations requis par une étude paramétrique complète, l’utilisation d’un algorithme d’optimisation est nécessaire. Un algorithme basé sur le plan d’expérience (OptDOE) a été développé et sa performance est comparée avec celles d’un algorithme d’optimisation hybride sur une fonction de référence de Rosenbrock et sur le modèle SYSMFS. Comparé à l’algorithme hybride, OptDOE a montré une bonne performance. Le nombre de simulations est réduit et les valeurs optimales trouvées, par cette méthode, sont porches de celles de l’étude paramétrique L’OptDOE permet également de décrire le comportement du modèle SYSMFS au voisinage de l’optimum avec une fonction coût approximée. Cette information est importante surtout au cas où la fonction coût a la forme d’une vallée. Dans ce cas, des valeurs différentes de l’optimum donnent presque le même coût global. / The introduction of new low capacity absorption chillers opens new prospects for the multifunction multisource solar systems (MFSSYS) which exploit the full potential of the solar energy for heating, cooling and production of domestic hot water (DHW) purposes. The solar combisystems (SCS), which preceded the MFSSYS, lacked an adapted procedure for the sizing of their main components: the solar collector and the solar thermal storage tank. From the point of view of the energy and investment cost, a sizing method based on the peak load may fail if the energy source is not guaranteed to be stable. An optimization of the main components by simulation may be then a key solution for an optimal sizing of the MFSSYS. An initial hydraulic schematic is elaborated for the MFSSYS based on information found in the literature about the SCS and the data made available by the chiller manufacture. The modeling of this schematic is complex as redundant simulation and modification were necessary in order to eliminate the potential problems of solution convergence. From this experience, a method of simulation aided design is elaborated. Parametric runs were carried out on the MFSSYS model. They offer needed information for the comparison of the optimization algorithms which are tested later on. The outcome of these parametric runs is a response surface which represents the cost of the MFSSYS as a function of the solar collector surface area and the volume of the solar thermal storage tank. In order to reduce the number of simulations required by a complete parametric runs method, the use of optimization algorithm become a necessity. An optimization algorithm based on the design of experiments (OptDOE) is developed; its performance is compared with the one of a hybrid optimization algorithm in two cases: a reference function of Rosenbrock and the model of the MFSSYS. Compared to the hybrid optimization algorithm, OptDOE has showed good performance. The number of simulations is reduced and the optimized values, found by this method, are close to those of the parametric runs. The main advantage of OptDOE is to describe the behavior of the cost function in the neighborhood of the optimum. This information is valuable especially when the cost function has a valley-like form, which is the case for the systems we studied. In this case, the cost has approximately the same value for a large variation range of the optimized parameters.