Performance-based engineering (PBE) requires advances in hazard characterization, structural modeling, and nonlinear analysis techniques to fully and efficiently develop the fragility expressions and other tools forming the basis for risk-based design procedures. This research examined and extended the state-of-the-art in hazard characterization (wind and surge) and risk-based design procedures (seismic). State-of-the-art hurricane models (including wind field, tracking and decay models) and event-based simulation techniques were used to characterize the hurricane wind hazard along the Texas coast. A total of 10,000 years of synthetic hurricane wind speed records were generated for each zip-code in Texas and were used to statistically characterize the N-year maximum hurricane wind speed distribution for each zip-code location and develop design non-exceedance probability contours for both coastal and inland areas. Actual recorded wind and surge data, the hurricane wind field model, hurricane size parameters, and a measure of storm kinetic energy were used to develop wind-surge and wind-surge-energy models, which can be used to characterize the wind-surge hazard at a level of accuracy suitable for PBE applications. These models provide a powerful tool to quickly and inexpensively estimate surge depths at coastal locations in advance of a hurricane landfall. They also were used to create surge hazard maps that provide storm surge height non-exceedance probability contours for the Texas coast. The simulation tools, wind field models, and statistical analyses, make it possible to characterize the risk-consistent hurricane events considering both hurricane intensity and size. The proposed methodology for event-based hurricane hazard characterization, when coupled with a hurricane damage model, can also be used for regional loss estimation and other spatial impact analyses. In considering seismic hazard, a risk-consistent framework for displacement-based seismic design of engineered multistory woodframe structures was developed. Specifically, a database of probability-based scale factors which can be used in a direct displacement design (DDD) procedure for woodframe buildings was created using nonlinear time-history analyses with suitably scaled ground motions records. The resulting DDD procedure results in more risk-consistent designs and therefore advances the state-of-the-art in displacement-based seismic design of woodframe structures.

The low latitude tropical ionosphere has been investigated by various researchers using Global Positioning System (GPS). Presently for many civil aviation applications, the ionospheric modeling of the tropical region has gained importance, in particular for flight safety. Since ionosphere is dispersive in nature, dual frequency (L1 = 1575.42 MHz and L2 = 1227.60 MHz) GPS observations can be used to obtain Ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC). Since TEC varies with local time and geomagnetic latitude, an Ionospheric Modeling Technique using spatial linear approximation of vertical TEC over receiver station has been implemented following Sardon et al. The effects of all the systematic errors due to the satellite plus the receiver (SPR) instrumental biases can reach upto several nanoseconds. (1 TEC is 1016 electrons/m2, 1 ns = 2.86 TEC and 1 TEC = 0.16 m). Hence, to have an accurate estimation of ionospheric TEC, the instrumental biases must also be estimated. This thesis describes a heuristic adaptive Kalman Filtering scheme developed to estimate the TEC, the constants in the linearisation scheme, as well as the above total instrumental biases. The Kalman filter implementation is basically an optimization problem of minimizing the Cost Function J based on the difference between the model output and the measurement, called as the ‘innovation’, scaled by its covariance. In order to obtain the best possible results using the Kalman Filter approach, it is essential to provide appropriate values for the initial state, process and measurement noise covariances (P0, Q and R) respectively, which in general may not be known. Usually manual tuning of the filter parameter is carried out without using the above cost function J! The filter estimates can be highly sensitive to the above chosen statistics and thus these will have to be estimated carefully. Hence, we have utilized the Adaptive Kalman Filtering procedure of Myers and Tapley extended by Gemson and Ananthasayanam. The minimization is carried out by simultaneously estimating the above statistics and the unknown parameters, which include the TEC and the instrumental bias. In addition, A Constant Gain Kalman Filter approach using Genetic Algorithm (GA) has also been developed for the above requirement. It is observed that the steady state gains in KF and AKF approaches are in good match with the constant gains obtained from Genetic Algorithm. Using the above Adaptive Kalman Filtering technique and Constant Gain Kalman Filter approach, vertical TEC values and SPR biases have been estimated from the IGS receiver observations stationed at ISTRAC/ISRO, Bangalore, India. A diurnal TEC variation over Bangalore for a period of one year for 2003 and January 2004 is estimated and reported in this thesis. This approach has also been applied to study the behaviour of the ionosphere over low latitude IGS station at Fortaleza, Brazil data during the great magnetic storm on the 15th July 2000 and the results were found to be consistent with the results of Basu et al. In addition, Using Constant Kalman filter, the TEC enhancement over Indian region has been estimated for the October 2003 Ionospheric storm, and the results were found to be consistent with the reported results in the literature.

WINDMI is a low dimensional plasma physics-based model of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system. The nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations describes the energy balance between the basic nightside components of the system using the solar wind driving voltage as input. Of the eight dynamical variables determined by the model, the region 1 field aligned current and ring current energy is compared to the westward auroral electrojet AL index and equatorial geomagnetic disturbance storm time Dst index. The WINDMI model is used to analyze the magnetosphere-ionosphere system during major geomagnetic storms and substorms which are community campaign events. Numerical experiments using the WINDMI model are also used to assess the question of how much interplanetary shock events contribute to the geoeffectiveness of solar wind drivers. For two major geomagnetic storm intervals, it is found that the magnetic field compressional jump is important to producing the changes in the AL index. Further, the WINDMI model is implemented to compute model AL and Dst predictions every ten minutes using real-time solar wind data from the ACE satellite as input. Real-Time WINDMI has been capturing substorm and storm activity, as characterized by the AL and Dst indices, reliably since February 2006 and is validated by comparison with ground-based measurements of the indices. Model results are compared for three different candidate input solar wind driving voltage formulas. Modeling of the Dst index is further developed to include the additional physical processes of tail current increases and sudden commencement. A new model, based on WINDMI, is developed using the dayside magnetopause and magnetosphere current systems to model the magnetopause boundary motion and the dayside region 1 field aligned current which is comparable to the auroral upper AU index. / text

The Queen's Ditch is located three kilometers north of Comox on Vancouver Island and is roughly 1300 hectares in size. In 1998, the watershed experienced a 1 in 200-year rain event that flooded much of the lower watershed. The Regional District of Comox-Strathcona is responsible for land-use planning in the watershed and initiated an investigation into the stormwater runoff problem. This thesis is divided into two components: a planning phase to identify problems with watershed hydrology; and a design phase to illustrate urban design that manages stormwater runoff. Watershed assessments were conducted at the watershed and sub-watershed scale. Watershed assessments were descriptive and helped predict future trends in land-use change. These assessments were not able to identify site specific problems. Sub-watershed assessment was useful at quantifying and identifying stormwater problems. Planners should use sub-watershed hydrological performance to guide land-use planning decisions and assess hydrological and ecological effects of development. The planning phase provides planners with a process to prioritize candidate areas for development, conservation, and rehabilitation. The design phase compares urban design and stormwater performance standards of a proposed conventional design with a sustainable design. The goal of the sustainable design was to mimic the site's natural hydrology to help reduce off-site runoff, and to ensure adequate groundwater recharge. Objectives of the sustainable design were to preserve natural vegetation; maintain x>£ time of concentration; reduce and disconnect impervious surfaces,, and treatment first flush flows. Comparisons of conventional and sustainable designs indicate that stormwater runoff and pollution can be managed at the site level. The sustainable design provides forty-seven percent more dwelling units and exports no stormwater. The sustainable design achieves this without an expensive stormdrain infrastructure. Stormwater is managed at the site level using small infiltration depressions and swales. The design works with the natural hydrological processes of the site to generate a hydrologically sustainable design. Simulated stormwater outputs were used to test and size infiltration ponds and to assess flooding risks. The sustainable design effectively manages stormwater production, runoff, and pollution from storm events ranging from polluted first flush flows to large, flood producing rainstorms.

Marsh vegetation is widely considered to offer protection against coastal storm damage, and vegetated flow has thus become a key area of hydrodynamic research. This study investigates the utility of simulated Spartina alterniora marsh vegetation as storm protection using an ADV measurement technique, and is the first to apply jet self-similarity analysis to characterize the overall mean and turbulent flow properties of a three-dimensional axisymmetric jet through a vegetated array. The mean axial flow of a horizontal axisymmetric turbulent jet is obstructed by three configurations of staggered arrays of vertical rigid plant stems. The entire experiment is repeated over five sufficiently high jet Reynolds number conditions to ensure normalization and subsequent collapse of data by nozzle velocity so that experimental error is obtained. All self-similarity parameters for the unobstructed free jet correspond to typical published values: the axial decay coefficient B is 5:8 +/- 0:2, the Gaussian spreading coefficient c is 85 +/- 5, and the halfwidth spreading rate eta_(1/2) is 0:093 +/- 0:003. Upon the introduction of vegetation, from partially obstructed to fully obstructed, B falls from 5:1+/- 0:2 to 4:2 +/- 0:2 and finally 3:7 +/-0:1 for the fully obstructed case, indicating that vegetation reduces axial jet velocity. Cross-sectionally averaged momentum for the unobstructed free jet is M=M0 = 1:05 +/- 0:07, confirming conservation of momentum. Failure of conservation of momentum is most pronounced in the fully obstructed scenario – M=M0 = 0:54 +/- 0:05. The introduction of vegetation increases spreading of the impinging jet. The entrainment coefficient alpha for the free jet case is 0.0575; in the fully obstructed case, alpha = 0:0631. Mean advection of mean and turbulent kinetic energy demonstrates an expected reduction in turbulence intensity within the vegetated array. In general, turbulent production decreases as axial depth of vegetation increases, though retains the bimodal profile of the free jet case; the fully vegetated case, however, exhibits clear peaks behind plant stems. Turbulent transport was shown to be unaffected by vegetation and appears to be primarily a function of axial distance from the jet nozzle. An analysis of rate of dissipation revealed that not only does the cumulative effect of upstream wakes overall depress the magnitude of spectral energy density across all wavenumbers but also that plant stems dissipate large anisotropic eddies in centerline streamwise jet flow. This study, thus, indicates that sparse emergent vegetation both reduces axial flow velocity and has a dissipative effect on jet flow. Typically, however, storm surge does not exhibit the lateral spreading demonstrated by an axisymmetric jet; therefore, the results of this study cannot conclusively support the claim that coastal vegetation reduces storm surge axial velocity.

The aim of this dissertation was to develop a multi-criteria decision support system (MCDSS) to allow a specified manager to select with confidence one or many of these BMPs for a particular site. The principal design approach was a review of South African and international literature pertaining to stormwater management techniques, in particular BMPs. This information was formulated into a primary matrix using a rank-and-weighting method. The scores were then checked against the literature to ensure that they were reasonable, culminating in the initial MCDSS. The MCDSS was then provided with seven scenarios, described in the literature, and the output reviewed. Although, the MCDSS would select appropriately when given few criteria for selection when these were increased, inappropriate outcomes resulted. Consequently, weighting factors were assigned to each criterion. The MCDSS was further tested using all the selection criteria and the output deemed satisfactory. The MCDSS was then tested in a case study of the Town Bush stream catchment at eleven sites along the river network and the results were adequate. Taking into consideration the economic aspects of BMP implementation a need also arose for the sites to be allocated to certain authorities depending upon ownership or responsibility. The sites were prioritised depending on potential threat to property and lastly by the hydrological nature of the stream at each site. A stormwater plan for the study area was also proposed. Although the MCDSS was functioning adequately it was not without its limitations. Limitations included the use of drainage areas as a surrogate measure for peak discharge thus, not allowing the user to design a series of BMPs or treatment chain. A second limitation was that initially the BMPs were designed as offline systems where stormwater is managed before entering the channel but in this study they were used as inline systems. Hence the ultimate selection was biased towards those BMPs able to deal with large drainage areas. Recommendations for further improvement include the development of a surrogate measure for drainage area thus allowing the user to design a treatment chain of BMPs; testing the MCDSS in more diverse circumstances; developing a more comprehensive set of selection criteria; and developing a clearer priority-setting model as the one used was rather simplistic. In conclusion the MCDSS provides the user with a useful tool where the selection and implementation of BMPs no longer has to take place in an ad hoc manner. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2001

The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is believed to be associated with changes in surface buoyancy in the subpolar North Atlantic, which naturally leads to a notion that the AMOC has been weakening under global warming. Yet, a variety source of observations and its assimilation into ocean circulation models have not supported such an AMOC decline so far. In this study, an aspect that has not been paid attention, regarding the maintenance of the AMOC strength, is explored: storm activity in the subpolar North Atlantic (NA). An analysis using reanalysis data shows that the wintertime turbulent heat flux variability in the LS deep convection region is largely controlled by a small number of extreme heat flux event days, suggesting a pivotal role of winter storms in prompting LS deep-water formation. A set of forced ocean-ice model simulations, in which synoptic winter storm activity associated with these event days is either suppressed or doubled over the subpolar NA, confirms the above analysis as the altered storm activity results in a substantial change in LS convection and the AMOC strength. These experiments also show an upward AMOC trend during the late twentieth century, the degree of which is to some extent related to the intensity of storm activity in the LS. The upward AMOC trend found in the first part of the dissertation opposes to a downward AMOC trend in the twentieth century coupled model simulations employing the identical ocean component. An analysis suggests that contrast to the ocean-ice model, storm activity in the LS convection region and associated heat flux decreases during the late twentieth century. Although there is also a buoyancy increase over the LS, the wintertime heat flux decrease appears to be a more dominant factor for a decrease in convection in the LS, as an increasing freshwater input from Arctic/Subarctic Ocean bypasses the interior LS along the western boundary current. Therefore, the downward AMOC trend in the coupled model can be linked ultimately to the decreasing storm activity over the LS. This study therefore suggests that storm activity over the major convection regions needs to be paid further attention in assessing AMOC variations, including long-term trend in response to a warming scenario, in future studies.

Thesis (M.E.S.)--The Evergreen State College, 2007. / Title from title screen (viewed 1/23/2008). "A thesis: essay of distinction submitted in partial fulfillment of the Master of Environmental Studies, The Evergreen State College, June 2007." Includes bibliographical references (leaves 66-70).

学位授与大学：京都大学 ; 取得学位: 博士(工学) ; 学位授与年月日: 2007-09-25 ; 学位の種類: 新制・課程博士 ; 学位記番号: 工博第2844号 ; 請求記号: 新制/工/1418 ; 整理番号: 25529 / An atmosphere-ocean coupled model was developed based on a preexisting non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmosphere model (MM5) and non-hydrostatic ocean circulation model (MITgcm). This model together with a pre-established wind-wave-currents coupled model was applied to a number of regional environmental issue and disaster events to reproduce the present status and past situations and to help our understanding of the physical processes of such problems in terms of atmosphere-ocean interactions including the sea surface waves in the interface between air and sea. The disaster events and environmental issue studied in this thesis are follows. 1) Storm surge induced by Hurricane Katrina in the Gulf coast of USA in 2005. 2) Extreme high waves at Hara coast, Suruga Bay in Japan caused by the super-Typhoon TIP in 1979. 3) Positive and negative feedbacks in typhoon-ocean interaction in case of Typhoon ETAU in 2003. 4) Thermal water circulation in a dam-made lake (Yachiyo Lake) in Hiroshima, Japan concerning on the hydrodynamics in the lake. 5) Reanalysis of the past 47 storms that caused disasters in West Kyushu, Japan. 6) Wave overtopping simulation over through the submerged offshore breakwater and enhance seawall. The Regional Environment and Disaster Prevention Simulator is proposed and constructed based on the regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model in this thesis of which the objective was improvement of the numerical assessment method to disaster events and environment problems by introducing he coupling effects between different systems. / Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第13373号 / 工博第2844号 / 新制||工||1418(附属図書館) / 25529 / UT51-2007-Q774 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 関口 秀雄, 教授 間瀬 肇, 教授 中北 英一 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

The thesis covers the investigation of the storm water runoff and artificial recharge components of the Atlantis Water Resource Management Scheme in the Southwestern Cape. The objective of the study was to obtain an in-depth knowledge of the process of artificial recharge of urban storm water runoff, in order to identify the most efficient recharge management strategy for the Atlantis aquifer. To achieve the objective it was necessary to first study the existing knowledge on urban storm water hydrology and artificial recharge by spreading, and to create a conceptual model of what might be expected. The study area was then investigated to examine how closely the actual situation was reflected by the conceptual model, enabling recommendations to be made for the sound management of the system. The stormwater runoff component was found to differ from most urban hydrological studies as a result of its large baseflow component. The sandy nature of the catchment, small percentage area of effective impervious surface, and high groundwater table resulted in the baseflow constituting more than 40% of the total storm water runoff and accounting for over 60% of the pollution load. The "first flush" effect established as a major source of pollution in other studies, was found to be of minor significance in this study area. The overall stormwater quality (excluding the noxious industrial baseflow) was found acceptable for artificial recharge within the study area, although the baseflow from the industrial sub-catchments showed the potential for being a major source of pollution in the future. The treated wastewater used for artificial recharge prior to 1987 was found to be unacceptable for recharge purposes. The treated industrial effluent should under no circumstances be recharged up-gradient of the Witzand well field. The treated domestic effluent although of a poorer quality than the resident Witzand well field groundwater could be recharged in order to boost recharge volumes and form a buffer against further intrusion by the poor quality groundwater from the Brakkefontein area. This would however only be acceptable if strict water quality control is maintained and recharge does not take place west of the present basin. The recharge basin was found to be well situated with respect to influencing the Witzand wellfield and maintaining a groundwater buffer against poor quality groundwater flow from the northeast towards the central area of the wellfield. Unfortunately the surrounding low-lying topography and sandy retaining walls have resulted in return flow and raised groundwater-levels. The raised groundwater mound does not comply with the conceptual model and together with the sandy nature of the unsaturated zone resulted in less effective purification during infiltration. The practice of letting large portions of the basin floor dry-out during summer was shown to be beneficial and the periodic cleaning of the deeper portions of the basin essential. The artificially recharged water was found to have influenced the upper portion of the aquifer well beyond the West Coast Road. The study of groundwater quality being a good method for tracing artificially recharged water. The groundwater quality has improved as a result of artificial recharge since the removal of treated wastewater from the recharge basin. The groundwater was (ii) found to be very responsive to the slightest changes in recharge basin water quality or/and quantity. Management of the recharge basin therefore had to be very much of a compromise between qualitative and quantitative approaches. The present approach of recharging all the stormwater runoff throughout the year providing the most efficient compromise under the present conditions. The study revealed that the most efficient recharge management strategy would be the recharge of treated domestic sewage effluent in the present recharge basin and all residential storm water runoff plus industrial "storm flow" stormwater runoff in a new recharge basin located northwest of the present basin. Strict water quality control must be maintained on the water discharged into the basins and an annual wet/dry cycle implemented within the basins to boost infiltration. The entire system should continue being monitored to safe guard the groundwater resource from pollution and over exploitation.