Pluvial floods are the most difficult and to date least investigated phenomena in urban hydrology. While efforts are being made to increase the knowledge base concerning this type of flooding, a large part of the difficulty lies in the nature of the precipitation. Convective storms represent most of the larger intensity short term rainfall in urban areas and is also the raintype, that is expected to increase the most in the future. The rain cells of this type have a more distinct boundary, larger intensity, a smaller extent and a shorter life span, than frontal rains. Combined with the low availability of densely spaced rain gauge networks and also low temporal resolution of measurements in 15 minutes intervals at best, makes this rain type still very difficult to analyze and even harder to predict. The resolution of cloud radar images at 2x2km and taken every 15 minutes is too coarse and the error reduction algorithms for radar based precipitation (HIPRAD) images to analysera in patterns are not sufficient by them selves to analyze the characteristics of such rainfields and the processes occurring within these fields. The spatial variation of raincells, their development and decay, the distance between them, and the velocity and direction of their movement can however be investigated employing a combination of densely spaced rain gauges and radar images to reach a more realistic representation of short-term precipitation for the use of in hydraulic models. The movement of rain fields has been investigated with two main areas of focus: The influence of direction or directional bias, often with an interest in the most crucial case referred to as the resonance effect, and in context of areal reduction of point rainfall. Most of these studies have been carried out with statistical methods and in laboratory experiments. In this study a hydraulic model was built on the terrain model of a realcity, a 28 km area in the city of Falun, to test the recently gathered information about the temporal variation of five empirical hyetographs with different peak arrival times and peak intensities, which are representative of Swedish climate. The hyetographs were produced and provided by SMHI. The empirical rain types were derived from 20 years of rain gauge observations and confirmed by radar images. For reference purposes, a standard Chicago design storm (CDS) rain was modeled as well. The simulated scenarios were modeled as a MIKE 21 hydraulic model, as a stationary scenario and in four movement directions. It was foundthat the empirical rain types produced lower inundation depth than the CDS, in a range of 20 to 50 % lower. The effect of modeling rainfall in motion produced on average only about 4-20 % lower water depths than the corresponding non-moving scenario. In a few instances, in a single evaluation point, the moving scenarios resulted in a relative water depth of a maximum of just above 1%. It was concluded that the conceptual approach of areal reduction from movement seems to be accurate and could help improve modeling rainfall in general, and specifically for cloud burst scenarios of shorter durations in urban catchments. It was also found that further investigation of the physical processes in rainfields could serve to increase the accuracy in areal reduction of precipitation for more realistic hydraulic models and in turn reduce over design. / Pluviala översvämningar är den typen, som är både svårast att reda ut och samtidigt den minst utforskade fenomenen inom urban hydrologi. Medan ansträngningar görs för att förbättra kunskapsläget, ligger den största svårigheten i nederbördens skepnad. Det är konvektiva regn som utgör de flesta av de starkare korttids regntillfällen i urbana områden och är också regntypen som förväntas att öka mest i framtiden. Regncellerna har en tydligare avgränsning, en större intensitet, mindre utsträckning, och en kortare livscykel än frontala regn. I kombination med den låga tillgängligheten av regnmätarnätverk med hög täthet i positioneringen av mätare, samt den låga tidsupplösningen av mätningar i intervaller av 15 minuter gör att konvektiva regn fortfarande är svåra att analysera och ännu svårare att förutse. Upplösningen av molnradar bilder av 2x2 km som tas varje 15:de minut är för grova och algoritmer för felreducering av bilder från radarbaserad nederbördsdata (HIPRAD) för analys av regn mönster är inte tillräckligt noggranna, för sig, för att kunna analysera egenskaperna av sådana regnfält och de processerna som karakteriserar dessa. Den spatiala variationen inom regnceller, deras utveckling och förfall, avståndet mellan dem samt riktningen och hastigheten kan ändå undersökas med hjälp av kombinationen av regnmätarnätverk och radar bilder för att uppnå mer realistiska korttids nederbördsscenarier för användning i hydrauliska model. Studier, som har undersökt regn i rörelse har varit fokuserade på två huvudområden: Betydelsen av riktningen, i vilken regnet rör sig, där den största effekten som denna riktningsbias kan uppnå, har döpts resonans effekt och i samband med ytreducering (areal reduction) av punkt nederbörd. De flesta av dessa studier har genomförts med hjälp av statistiska metoder och laboratorieexperiment. I denna studie skapades en hydraulisk modell baserad på en realistisk terräng av ett existerade urbant område, en yta på 28 km i Falun, för att testa den nyligen utvärderade informationen om temporala intensitets fördelningen som representerar det svenska klimatet. Regndatat producerades och tillhandahölls av SMHI och representerar en mätserie från regnmätare över en period av 20 år. Som referens modellerades även ett Chicago regn (CDS). Med hjälp av en MIKE21 hydraulisk modell, simulerades ett stationärt scenario och fyra rörelseriktningar för varje empirisk hyetograf. Resultaten visade att de empiriska regntyperna skapade översvämningar med 20-50% lägre vattendjup än CDS regnet. Att modellera rörelsen resulterade i 4-20% lägre vattennivåer jämfört med respektive stationär scenario. I några enstaka tillfällen, i en av evalueringspunkterna, skapade de rörliga scenarierna större resultat, med lite över 1% i det största fallet. Det drogs slutsatsen att konceptet av areal reduction genom molnrörelse verkar vara korrekt och skulle kunna hjälpa att förbättra sättet att modellera regn generellt, men också specifikt för skyfalls scenarier med korta varaktigheter över urbana avrinningsområden. Man kom ytterligare till slutsatsen att framtida studier i samband med de fysiska processerna i regnceller skulle kunna användas för att höja noggrannheten av ytreducering av nederbörd för mer realistiska hydrauliska modeller, som i sin tur kunde minska överdesign.

Der Ausgang des Romans Die Leiden des Jungen Werther (1774, von Johann Wolfgang von Goethe) wird beim ersten Anblick oft als tragische Folge einer unglücklichen und unerwiderten Liebe zu Lotte angesehen. In dieser vorliegenden Arbeit wird der weit erforschten Frage der Unvermeidbarkeit des Suizids im Werk eine alternative Deutung geliefert. Diese ist außerhalb des Romans angesiedelt, und zeigt, dass der Suizid schon in der Epoche angelegt ist.

Le Jurassique supérieur est une période qui présentait une paléogéographie et des conditions climatiques globales favorables au développement des systèmes sédimentaires dominés par les tempêtes. L’objectif de ce travail est de comprendre les facteurs contrôlant la dynamique de ces systèmes, ainsi que la relation entre les variations de fréquences et d’intensité des tempêtes et les changements climatiques. Trois coupes ont été choisies pour cette étude : les Pas (passage Oxfordien – Kimméridgien) et la coupe du Rocher d’Yves (Kimméridgien supérieur), près de La Rochelle ; la coupe du Cap de la Crèche (Kimméridgien supérieur – début du Tithonien), dans le Boulonnais. Ces coupes sont analysées pour la sédimentologie, les palynofaciès et les nannofossiles calcaires. Pour chacune d’elles, un modèle de faciès détaillé est établi, permettant de proposer une interprétation séquentielle et cyclostratigraphique précise. L’interprétation cyclostratigraphique permet d’interpréter les dépôts de tempêtes en terme de variations de fréquence des tempêtes. L’interprétation séquentielle permet de s’affranchir des variations du niveau marin relatif pour interpréter les dépôts de tempêtes en terme de variations d’intensité des tempêtes. Les points communs et les différences entre ces deux systèmes sont discutés, tant du point de vue de la dynamique sédimentaire que de l’enregistrement et de la préservation des dépôts de tempêtes. Enfin, la relation entre les variations de fréquence et d’intensité des tempêtes et les changements climatiques est discutée. Les faciès sédimentaires de La Rochelle et du Boulonnais présentent une organisation spatiale relativement similaire. La production carbonatée des systèmes présente des similitudes et des différences. Elle semble capable de réagir très rapidement aux variations du niveau marin relatif, augmentant avec l’élévation du niveau marin relatif. Les deux systèmes ont également une évolution similaire dans le temps. Les dépôts de tempêtes des deux sites montrent des morphologies similaires, liées aux conditions de dépôt et de préservation. Il a été possible de mettre en relation les variations d’intensité, de fréquences, et les changements du climat. Ainsi, les variations d’intensité des tempêtes semblent évoluer en parallèle des variations de fréquence, les valeurs d’intensité les plus élevées correspondant aux valeurs de fréquences les plus élevées. De plus, ces augmentations de fréquence et d’intensité ont lieu en même temps que l’augmentation des températures, indiquant un lien entre le réchauffement du climat et l’augmentation de l’activité des tempêtes / The Late Jurassic was a period with paleogeography and global climatic conditions that favor the development of sedimentary systems dominated by storms. The purpose of this study is to better understand the controlling factors on the dynamic of these systems. Three sections are chosen. The Pas (Oxfordian – Kimmeridgian transition) and the Rocher d'Yves (Late Kimmeridgian) sections, near La Rochelle (Western France), correspond to a muddy, mixed carbonated – siliciclastic platform. The Cap de la Crèche section (Late Kimmeridgian – Early Tithonian) corresponds to a mixed carbonated – siliciclastic ramp, dominated by coarse material. Sedimentary, palynofacies, and calcareous nannofossil analyses are performed. For each section, a detailed facies model is proposed, allowing precise sequence- and cyclostratigraphic interpretations. The sequence and cyclostratigraphic frameworks allow the calculation of the storm frequency. Comparison between host facies and storm deposits allows the estimation of storm intensity. The similarities and differences between these two systems are discussed, for the sedimentary dynamic, and the record and preservation of the storm deposits. Finally, the relation between storm frequency and intensity and climate is discussed. La Rochelle and Boulonnais sedimentary facies have a similar spatial organization. Carbonate production of these systems presents similarities and differences. The carbonate production seems able to react very quickly to relative sea-level variations, increasing when sea-level is high. The two systems also have a similar evolution in time. The storm deposits of the two sites show similar morphologies, related to the conditions of deposition and preservation. It was possible to link the variations of storm intensity and frequency with the climate changes. The variations of storm intensity evolve in parallel of the variations of storm frequency, the highest values of intensity corresponding to the highest values of frequency. Moreover, this increase in frequency and intensity is consistent with increasing temperature, suggesting a link between the increasing storm activity and the climate warming

Os veículos aéreos não tripulados (VANTs) vêm apresentando destaque crescente no setor aeronáutico mundial, tanto no desenvolvimento dos mesmos quanto nas diferentes aplicações desses veículos, devido ao seu grande potencial de utilização. Em muitas aplicações, a utilização de múltiplos VANTs apresenta várias vantagens sobre um VANT sozinho. No entanto, o agrupamento pode experimentar problemas inerentes à comunicação sem fio, podendo originar novos problemas como inviabilizar a coordenação e a execução cooperativa de uma missão, por exemplo. Em um cenário não colaborativo, VANTs com algum nível de autonomia e que partilhem do mesmo espaço aéreo também deverão ser capazes de trocar informações entre si, principalmente informações sobre posicionamento e rota de voo, e também estarão suscetíveis aos distúrbios da comunicação sem fio. Para balancear as vantagens e as desvantagens, esses robôs precisarão se comunicar cientes das restrições e utilizando a rede de modo otimizado, por meio da aplicação de algoritmos que equilibrem adequadamente técnicas de difusão de informações e técnicas de mitigação de retransmissões. Neste projeto de doutorado foi feita a investigação sobre o método de disseminação de dados, por meio de broadcasting, em uma rede móvel ad hoc entre VANTs, denominada Flying Ad hoc Networks (FANETs). FANETs são um novo paradigma que pode superar as restrições de missões de um único VANT. As FANETs são compostas por vários VANTs que cooperam para realizar alguma missão crítica (por exemplo, uma missão de busca e resgate). Para manter a coordenação, todos os VANTs devem continuamente enviar ou retransmitir mensagens através do canal sem fio para garantir que todos os membros da rede saibam o estado da rede. Geralmente, a troca de dados necessários para manter a sincronização da missão exige o uso de broadcast para que todos os membros da rede possam recebê-los. No entanto, quando essa troca de mensagens é feita arbitrariamente, isso pode causar o problema da tempestade de broadcast (BSP), levando o meio sem fio a um estado inoperante. Apesar de alguns esforços relatados na literatura para o provimento de técnicas gerais de mitigação do problema BSP, o desafio de agregar novas informações ou conhecimento a receptores que estejam voando, ao invés de apenas espalhar os dados na rede, tem recebido menos atenção. Nesta tese, além de demonstrar que o problema BSP intensifica a contenção de rede à medida que o número de VANTs aumenta, também foi criado um método que se prova mais eficiente que os existentes até então. Tal técnica, denominada de Algoritmo Baseado em Vizinhança Dinâmica para o Problema da Tempestade de Broadcast (DNA-BSP), foi desenvolvida e validada com base em experimentos de mundo real e em simulações computacionais. Ele pode mitigar o problema BSP, que é um desafio real nas FANETs, reduzindo a redundância de mensagens em mais de 98% e tornando a entrega de mensagens 99,5% mais rápida do que no cenário de flooding, superando as técnicas gerais de mitigação do BSP quando aplicado em FANETs. Os resultados detalhados neste texto também poderão orientar trabalhos futuros ao fornecer informações úteis para o planejamento e otimização de redes ad hoc móveis para VANTs. / Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been showing increasing notoriety in the global aviation scene, both on their development and on the different applications for these vehicles, due to their high potential of use. In many applications, using multiple UAVs has several advantages over a single UAV. However, a cluster of UAVs may experience issues inherent to wireless communication, which may lead to new complications such as making mission coordination and cooperative execution impractible. In a non-collaborative scenario, UAVs with some level of autonomy which share the same airspace should also be able to exchange information among themselves, especially positioning and flight path information, and may also be susceptible to wireless communication disturbances. These robots have to use the network fairly and should communicate under restrictions, appropriately adjusting techniques that disseminate information and that mitigate broadcasts, in order to balance the advantages and disadvantages of being a group. This Ph.D. research investigates how broadcasting is used to disseminate data throughout ad hoc mobile networks between UAVs called Flying Ad hoc Networks (FANETs). FANETs are a new paradigm that can overcome the mission constraints of single UAVs. FANETs are composed of several UAVs that cooperate to accomplish a critical mission (e.g., hazardous area monitoring). Aiming to maintain UAVs coordination, all aircraft must continuously retransmit or relay messages through the wireless channel to assure that every member knows the FANET status. However, when this message exchange is done blindly, it may cause the broadcast storm problem (BSP), leading the wireless medium to a dysfunctional state. Despite some efforts reported in the literature for providing general techniques to mitigate the broadcast storm problem, the challenge of aggregating new information or knowledge to receivers, instead of just spreading the information in the network, has received less attention. In this research, it has been proved that the broadcast storm problem causes network contention as the number of UAVs increases, and the innovative Dynamic Neighborhood-based Algorithm for the Broadcast Storm Problem (DNA-BSP) has been provided as a countermeasure, which was developed and validated based on computer simulations and outdoor experiments. It can mitigate the broadcast storm problem, which is a real challenge in FANETs, reducing message redundancy in more than 98%, and making message delivery 99,5% faster than in flooding scenario, outperforming classical broadcast storm mitigation techniques when applied in FANETs. Our detailed results can also guide future researches and provide useful insights for engineers planning and optimizing mission-critical mobile ad hoc network with support of UAVs.

Cette thèse présente une étude de la dynamique des plages à l'échelle événementielle (ou "échelle des tempêtes"). Même si cette dynamique est essentielle, elle est restée principalement méconnue jusqu'à ce jour du fait du manque d'outils d'observation adaptés à son étude. Les nouvelles possibilités offertes par l'imagerie vidéo, notamment l'observation à haute fréquence, sont très novatrices. Dans cette thèse, un outil vidéo est présenté qui, à partir de la mesure des caractéristiques hydrodynamiques de surface, permet d'estimer avec précision la topographie littorale sur une large zone (km) et à haute fréquence (jour). Ce travail montre que les différentes structures sableuses littorales interagissent et qu'elles ne peuvent pas être étudiées de manière isolée. La dynamique des structures sableuses peut être fortement non-uniforme dans la direction parallèle à la plage, même en conditions de fortes vagues. De plus, la dynamique est cruciale car elle contribue aux transferts de sédiment entre le large et la plage. Dans un système à deux barres, plus que la hauteur des vagues, c'est le marnage qui influence majoritairement la dynamique de la barre intertidale en conditions de tempête. Nos résultats suggèrent qu'une grande part de la variabilité temporelle de la plage se situe à cette échelle court terme. / This thesis presents a study on short term (day to month) beach dynamic. Until the emergence of video systems, and despite its major role, this dynamic remained mainly unknown due to the lack of a suited observation technology. The new possibilities allowed by video imagery, comprising high-frequency observation, are revolutionary. In this thesis, a tool is introduced that, from the measure of nearshore hydrodynamics, estimates accurately nearshore topography for a large area (km) and at high frequency (day). This thesis shows that nearshore sand features interact and cannot be studied in isolation. We show that sand features dynamic can be dominantly non-uniform in the longshore direction, even for large waves. This dynamic is crucial because it contributes to cross-shore sand exchanges. For a double-barred beach, more than wave height, tidal range variations drive inner bar dynamic during stormy conditions. Our results suggest that a large part of the beach temporal variability is short term.

Dans le cadre des systèmes de transport intelligents (STI), les véhicules peuvent avoir beaucoup de capteurs (caméras, lidars, radars, etc.) et d’applications (évitement des collisions, surveillance du trafic, etc.) générant des données. Ils représentent alors une source d’information importante. Les applications locales peuvent augmenter considérablement leur efficacité en partageant une telle information au sein du réseau. La précision des données, la confiance et la pertinence peuvent être vérifiées lors de la réception de données provenant d’autres nœuds. Par conséquent, nous croyons qu’une question importante à répondre dans ce contexte est: “Comment partager efficacement les données dans un tel environnement?” Le partage de données est une tâche complexe dans les réseaux dynamiques. De nombreuses problèmes telles que les connexions intermittentes, la variation de la densité du réseau et la congestion du médium de communication se posent. Une approche habituelle pour gérer ces problèmes est basée sur des processus périodiques. En effet, un message envoyé plusieurs fois peut atteindre sa destination même avec des connexions intermittentes et des réseaux à faible densité. Néanmoins, dans les réseaux à haute densité, ils peuvent entraîner une congestion du médium de communication. Dans cette thèse, nous abordons le problème du partage de données dans des réseaux dynamiques en nous appuyant sur des horizons de pertinence. Un horizon est défini comme une zone dans laquelle une information devrait être reçue. Nous commençons par nous concentrer sur le partage de données au sein des voisins directs (à 1 saut de distance). Ensuite, nous proposons une solution pour construire une carte des voisins, centrée sur le nœud ego, dans un horizon à n sauts. Enfin, nous relâchons la définition de l’horizon pour la définir de façon dynamique, où différents éléments de données peuvent atteindre des distances différentes (sauts). En ce qui concerne la solution pour les horizons à 1 saut, notre technique adaptative prend en compte la dynamique des nœuds et la charge du réseau. Afin d’assurer une diffusion efficace des données dans différents scénarios, la fréquence d’envoi des messages est définie en fonction des mouvements des véhicules et d’une estimation du taux de perte du réseau. Après, nous nous concentrons sur la carte des voisins jusqu’à n sauts de distance. Comme la communication avec des nœuds éloignés apporte des problèmes supplémentaires (actions de transfert, retards plus importants, informations périmées), une évaluation de confiance des nœuds identifiés et une estimation de fiabilité du chemin vers chaque voisin sont ajoutées à la carte. Au lieu d’exécuter des processus de diffusion séparés, notre troisième contribution porte sur une stratégie de coopération dont l’objectif principal est de diffuser des données tout en satisfaisant la plupart des nœuds. À cette fin, une trame unique est transmise de nœud en nœud. Sa charge utile est mise à jour localement afin qu’elle contienne les éléments de données les plus pertinents en fonction de certains critères (par exemple, urgence, pertinence). Une telle stratégie définit ainsi un horizon centré sur les données. Nous validons nos propositions au moyen d’émulations de réseaux réalistes. De toutes nos études et des résultats obtenus, nous pouvons affirmer que notre approche apporte des perspectives intéressantes pour le partage de données dans des réseaux dynamiques comme les VANET. / In the context of Intelligent Transportation Systems - ITS, vehicles may have a lot of sensors (e.g. cameras, lidars, radars) and applications (collision avoidance, traffic monitoring, etc.) generating data. They represent then an important source of information. Local applications can significantly increase their effectiveness by sharing such an information within the network. Data accuracy, confidence and pertinence can be verified when receiving data from other nodes. Therefore, we believe that an important question to answer in this context is: “How to efficiently share data within such an environment?” Data sharing is a complex task in dynamic networks. Many concerns like intermittent connections, network density variation and communication spectrum congestion arise. A usual approach to handle these problems is based on periodic processes. Indeed, a message sent many times can reach its destination even with intermittent connections and low density networks. Nevertheless, within high density networks, they may lead to communication spectrum scarcity. In this thesis we address the problem of data sharing in dynamic networks by relying in so-called horizons of pertinence. A horizon is defined as an area within which an information is expected to be received. We start focusing on data sharing within direct neighbors (at 1-hop of distance). Then we propose a solution to construct a map of neighbors, centered in the ego-node, within a horizon of n-hops. Finally, we relax the horizon definition to a dynamic defined one where different data items may reach different distances (hops). Regarding the solution for 1-hop horizons, our adaptive technique takes into account nodes’ dynamics and network load. In order to ensure an effective data dissemination in different scenarios, the sending messages frequency is defined according to vehicles movements and an estimation of the network loss rate. Following, we focus on the map of neighbors up to n-hops of distance. As communicationwith distant nodes brings additional concerns (forwarding actions, larger delays, out-of-date information), a trust evaluation of identified nodes and a reliability estimation of the multi-hop path to each neighbor is added to the map. Instead of running separated disseminating processes, our third contribution deals with a cooperative strategy with the main goal of disseminating data while satisfying most of the nodes. For this purpose a unique frame is forwarded from node to node. Its payload is locally updated so that it contains the most relevant data items according to some criteria (e.g. urgency, relevance). Such a strategy defines thus a data-centered horizon. We validate our proposals by means of realistic network emulations. From all our studies and achieved results we can state that our approach brings interesting insights for data sharing in dynamic networks like VANETs.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-29T14:27:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Antonio Carlos Ferreira.pdf: 2962525 bytes, checksum: 115434630234989a8886f14a518bbb6d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-24 / The purpose of this thesis is to perform a narrative reading of Mark 4.35-41, focusing on the character of the individuals in order to understand their behavior when facing a dangerous situation in the storm at sea they ask Jesus, Master, do you not care that we are perishing? When facing danger, the prevalent emotions are fear, despair and anxiety. Therefore, the exegetical study will be conducted using psychology, a science that studies human behavior and mental processes. Based on the theoretical principles of Bible study as literature, the goal of the present study is to perform an exegetical analysis of the biblical narrative in Mark. The miracle description includes all issues related found in manuals and biblical commentaries with their multivisions. It also includes a parenetic, coeval analysis of the text based on the sciences of human behavior aimed at updating and application in modern life. Therefore, the text exegesis sheds light on the history, the validity of the pericope and update for modern life based on psychology. It applies to the study in question the historical-critical method over the structuralist and fundamentalist / Esta tese busca realizar uma leitura da narrativa em Marcos 4,35-41. Postula centrar-se no caráter dos personagens querendo entender o comportamento dos mesmos diante da situação de perigo na tempestade no mar expressa na inquirição dirigida a Jesus: ―Mestre, não te importa que pereçamos?‖ Diante de um perigo, as emoções sobressalentes no humano são medo, ansiedade e desespero. Por isso, o estudo exegético será realizado em diálogo com a psicologia, ciência que estuda o comportamento humano e os processos mentais. Tendo como base os pressupostos teóricos de estudo da Bíblia, enquanto literatura, este trabalho realiza análise exegética da narrativa bíblica em Marcos. Reúne em torno da narrativa de milagre todas as questões relativas ao tema que se encontram em manuais e comentários bíblicos com suas multivisões. Realiza ação parenética coeva do texto em diálogo com as ciências do comportamento humano visando atualização e aplicação na vida hodierna. Deste modo, a exegese do texto em questão, lança luz sobre a historicidade, a validade da perícope e atualização para a vida hodierna com corte psicológico. Aplicou-se ao estudo em questão o método histórico-crítico em detrimento ao estruturalista e ao fundamentalista

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:22:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudete Gebara Jose Callegaro.pdf: 32253053 bytes, checksum: fc08e149c9973e9e45ffe5687f131952 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-11-04 / There are many centuries that the rain, in the city, is not understood as life ; it incorporates road and health infrastructure, confined to gutters, manholes, underground galleries, returning to people perception like floods. Nowadays, the understanding about eco-systemic relationships brings new models for managing urban storm water, in the way of bioclimatic architecture, designing with nature, with contemporary principles of environmental comfort in the cities, i. e., sustainable urban development. The speech is ready; how to transfer theory into practice is one of the objectives of this work. Some places in the world have adopted this paradigm and developed methodology for public and private actions, according to a model called the green infrastructure system. Professionals in individual works also believe in that path, contributing with creative design, showing the model potential. By this principle, every place has its unique design, according to its physical territory and the cultural characteristics of its society. Considering that joint urban operations are the most advanced in urban policy for development, in Brazil, do they incorporate the urban sustainability principles brought by the green infrastructure model? That is what will be analyzed, in reference to the Água Espraiada Joint Urban Operation, in São Paulo. / A chuva, nas cidades, deixou por muitos séculos de ser entendida como vida e passou a incorporar a infraestrutura viária e sanitária, confinada a sarjetas, bueiros, galerias subterrâneas, retornando à percepção da população sob a forma de enchentes. Com a compreensão que se tem hoje sobre as relações ecológico-sistêmicas, novos modelos de gestão das águas pluviais urbanas surgem, consonantes com a arquitetura bioclimática, com a linha de pensamento de desenho com a natureza, com os preceitos contemporâneos do conforto ambiental nas cidades, ou seja, do desenvolvimento urbano sustentável. O discurso está pronto; como transferir a teoria para a prática é um dos objetivos deste trabalho. Alguns lugares no mundo já adotam tais paradigmas e vêm desenvolvendo metodologia para ações públicas e privadas, segundo um modelo denominado sistema de infraestrutura verde. Profissionais em obras individuais também apostam nesse caminho, contribuindo com projetos criativos, mostrando o potencial do modelo. Por esse princípio, cada lugar tem seu projeto único, seja pelas condições físicas de seu território, seja pelas características culturais de sua sociedade. Considerando-se que as operações urbanas consorciadas são o instrumento mais avançado como política urbana em prol do desenvolvimento, no Brasil, até que ponto elas incorporam os preceitos de sustentabilidade urbana trazidos pelo modelo de infraestrutura verde? É o que se analisará, tomando como referência a Operação Urbana Consorciada Água Espraiada, em São Paulo.

Les modèles de Rejets Urbains par Temps de Pluie (MRUTP) de Matières en Suspension (MES) dans les systèmes d’assainissement urbains sont essentiels pour des raisons scientifiques, environnementales, opérationnelles et réglementaires. Néanmoins, les MRUTP ont été largement mis en question, surtout pour reproduire des données mesurées en continu à l’exutoire des grands bassins versants. Dans cette thèse, trois limitations potentielles des MRUTP traditionnels ont été étudiées dans un bassin versant de 185 ha (Chassieu, France), avec des mesures en ligne de 365 événements pluvieux : a) incertitudes des données dû aux conditions sur le terrain, b) incertitudes dans les modèles hydrologiques et mesures de pluie et c) incertitudes dans les structures traditionnelles des MRUTP. Ces aspects sont approfondis dans six apports séparés, dont leurs résultats principaux peuvent être synthétisés comme suites : a) Acquisition et validation des données : (i) quatre stratégies d’échantillonnage pendant des événements pluvieux sont simulées et évaluées à partir de mesures en ligne de MES et débit. Les intervalles d’échantillonnage recommandés sont de 5 min, avec des erreurs moyennes entre 7 % et 20 % et des incertitudes sur ces erreurs d’environ 5 %, selon l’intervalle d’échantillonnage; (ii) la probabilité de sous-estimation de la concentration moyenne dans la section transversale du réseau est estimée à partir de deux méthodologies. Une méthodologie montre des sous-estimations de MES plus réelles (vers 39 %) par apport à l'autre (vers 269 %). b) Modèles hydrologiques et mesures de pluie : (iii) une stratégie d’estimation de paramètres d’un modèle conceptuel pluie-débit est proposée, en analysant la variabilité des paramètres optimaux obtenus à partir d’un calage Bayésien évènement-par-évènement; (iv) une méthode pour calculer les précipitations moyennes sur un bassin versant est proposée, sur la base du même modèle hydrologique et les données de débit. c) MRUTP (pollutographes) : (v) la performance de modélisation à partir du modèle traditionnel courbe d’étalonnage (RC) a été supérieur aux différents modèles linéaires de fonctions de transfert (TF), surtout en termes de parcimonie et précision des simulations. Aucune relation entre les potentielles erreurs de mesure de la pluie et les conditions hydrologiques définies en (iii) et (iv) avec les performances de RC et TFs n’a pu être établie. Des tests statistiques renforcent que l’occurrence des évènements non-représentables par RC ou TF au cours de temps suit une distribution aléatoire (indépendante de la période sèche précédente); (vi) une méthode de reconstruction Bayésienne de variables d’état virtuelles indique que des processus potentiellement manquants dans une description RC sont ininterprétables en termes d’un unique état virtuel de masse disponible dans le bassin versant qui diminue avec le temps, comme nombre de modèles traditionnels l’ont supposé. / Total Suspended Solids (TSS) stormwater models in urban drainage systems are often required for scientific, legal, environmental and operational reasons. However, these TSS stormwater traditional model structures have been widely questioned, especially when reproducing data from online measurements at the outlet of large urban catchments. In this thesis, three potential limitations of traditional TSS stormwater models are analyzed in a 185 ha urban catchment (Chassieu, Lyon, France), by means 365 rainfall events monitored online: a) uncertainties in TSS data due to field conditions; b) uncertainties in hydrological models and rainfall measurements and c) uncertainties in the stormwater quality model structures. These aspects are investigated in six separate contributions, whose principal results can be summarized as follows: a) TSS data acquisition and validation: (i) four sampling strategies during rainfall events are simulated and evaluated by online TSS and flow rate measurements. Recommended sampling time intervals are of 5 min, with average sampling errors between 7 % and 20 % and uncertainties in sampling errors of about 5 %, depending on the sampling interval; (ii) the probability of underestimating the cross section mean TSS concentration is estimated by two methodologies. One method shows more realistic TSS underestimations (about 39 %) than the other (about 269 %). b) Hydrological models and rainfall measurements: (iii) a parameter estimation strategy is proposed for conceptual rainfall-runoff model by analyzing the variability of the optimal parameters obtained by single-event Bayesian calibrations, based on clusters and graphs representations. The new strategy shows more performant results in terms of accuracy and precision in validation; (iv) a methodology aimed to calculate “mean” areal rainfall estimation is proposed, based on the same hydrological model and flow rate data. Rainfall estimations by multiplying factors over constant-length time window and rainfall zero records filled with a reverse model show the most satisfactory results compared to further rainfall estimation models. c) Stormwater TSS pollutograph modelling: (v) the modelling performance of the traditional Rating Curve (RC) model is superior to different linear Transfer Function models (TFs), especially in terms of parsimony and precision of the simulations. No relation between the rainfall corrections or hydrological conditions defined in (iii) and (iv) with performances of RC and TFs could be established. Statistical tests strengthen that the occurrence of events not representable by the RC model in time is independent of antecedent dry weather conditions; (vi) a Bayesian reconstruction method of virtual state variables indicate that potential missing processes in the RC description are hardly interpretable as a unique state of virtual available mass over the catchment decreasing over time, as assumed by a great number of traditional models.

L'étude de la variabilité des cyclones extra-tropicaux (ETC) est non seulement un sujet d'intérêt pour la communauté scientifique mais aussi d'une grande importance en raison de ses impacts socio-économiques. Toutefois, l'étude continué de la variabilité des ETC et de leurs impacts est encore rare, en particulier a l'échelle de temps du Xeme siècle. Cette thèse vise a étudier la variabilité des trajectoires de tempêtes et de leurs dégâts associés du début du Xxeme siècle a 2010. Pour ce faire, le travail est divisé en deux sections principales, l'une dédiée a la climatologie des ETCs au cours du siècle dernier a partir de données de réanalyse, et la seconde centrée sur le calcul d'indices de pertes et l'évaluation des risques induits par les tempêtes. On s'intéresse en premier lieu a l'étude de la variabilité des ETCs par l'application d'un algorithme de suivi de cyclone, sur la réanalyse de long terme du Centre Européen (ECMWF) ERA-20C. Le nombre annuel d'ETC modérées a intenses fait ressortir trois périodes historiques distinctes. Deux périodes, l'une au début et la seconde à la fin du Xeme siècle (1900-1935 et 1980-2010) ne présentent aucune tendance tandis qu'au milieu du siècle (1930-1980) une tendance significative à l'augmentation apparait. Cette dernière peut toutefois être interrogée en raison de l'inhomogénéité temporelle des réanalyses de long terme. Pour cette raison, un ensemble de paramètres physiques sont analysés en vue d'interpréter physiquement les trois périodes. Durant la période 1930-1980, un refroidissement général de l'atmosphère est observé, en particulier aux hautes latitudes, qui augmente le gradient méridien de température et en conséquence la baroclinicité et la conversion barocline. Par ailleurs, cette augmentation de la fréquence d'ETC est observée spécifiquement sur le Pacifique (Atlantique) au cours de la première (seconde) moitié de la période en lien avec une inversion de l'indice Oscillation Décennale du Pacifique (Oscillation Multidecennale Atlantique). La seconde partie de la thèse s'intéresse à l'analyse des tempête scausant les plus forts dégâts du Xeme siècle. Tout d'abord, on calcule un champ d'indices de dégâts de vents forts pour plus de vingt pays. On développe ensuite une Méthode de Suivi de Tempêtes de Forts Dégâts et les résultats de l'algorithme de suivi sont combinés avec les indices de dégâts de vents forts pour chaque pays. [...] / Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) variability is not only a subject that raises interest among the scientific community, but also extremely important in terms of social-economical impacts. Nevertheless, the study of both the extratropical cyclones variability and windstorms impacts is still scarce, particularly at time-scales that cover the twentieth century. This thesis aims to study, both storms track variability and associated losses from the beginning of the 20th century until 2010. In order to do so, the work was separated in two main parts, one witch focus on ETCs climatology during the last century using reanalysis data and another focused on loss indexes calculations and risk assessment of windstorms. The first part of this PhD concerns the study of ETCs variability after applying a tracking algorithm on the long-term ECMWF reanalysis ERA-20C. The number of ETCs per year shows three distinct periods for the moderate and deep cyclones. Two periods, one at the beginning and another at end of the century (1900-1935 and 1980-2010) for which no significant e trends are observed and a middle-century period between 1935-1980 which presents a significant positive trend. This last trend, however, a deeper analysis on this period should be done due to time-inhomogeneity of long-term reanalysis datasets. For this reason, a set of physical parameters are analysed and a physical interpretation made for each one of the periods. During the middle period, a general cooling of the atmosphere is observed, particularly at high-latitudes, which increases the meridional gradients of temperature and consequently baroclinicity and baroclinic conversion. Besides that, this increase is also observed more specifically in the Pacific (Atlantic) in the first (second) half of this period and linked with a Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) change in signs. On the opposite, the first and third periods are related with warmer polar temperatures that are more intense in the third period but never reach the upper levels of the troposphere. This creates differential changes in baroclinicity. On the one hand, baroclinicity decreases at lower levels and, on the other hand increases at upper levels. The second part of this thesis is focused on the analysis of the most damaging windstorms of the century. First, Loss and Meteorological indexes Pinto et al 2012 are computed for more than twenty countries. Then, a High-Loss Tracking Method is developed and the tracking algorithm trajectories are matched with the LI and MI information for each country. [...]