The work reported in this thesis is in the area of computational modeling of reliability of engineering structures. The emphasis of the study is on developing methods that are suitable for analysis of large-scale structures such as aircraft structure components. This class of problems continues to offer challenges to an analyst with the most difficult aspect of the analysis being the treatment of nonlinearity in the structural behavior, non-Gaussian nature of uncertainties and quantification of low levels of probability of failure (of the order of 10-5 or less), requiring significant computational effort. The present study covers static/ dynamic behavior, Gaussian/ non-Gaussian models of uncertainties, and (or) linear/ nonlinear structures. The novel elements in the study consist of two components: • application of modeling tools that already exists in the area of design and analysis of computer experiments, and . • application of data based extreme value analysis procedures that are available in the statistics literature. The first component of the work provides opportunity to combine space filling sampling strategies (which have promise for reducing variance of estimation) with kriging based modeling in reliability studies-an opportunity that has not been explored in the existing literature. The second component of the work exploits the virtues of limiting behavior of extremes of sequence of random variables with Monte Carlo simulations of structural response-a strategy for reliability modeling that has not been explored in the existing literature. The hope here is that failure events with probabilities of the order of 10-5 or less could be investigated with relatively less number of Monte Carlo runs. The study also brings out the issues related to combining the above sources of existing knowledge with finite element modeling of engineering structures, thereby leading to newer tools for structural reliability analysis. The thesis is organized into four chapters. The first chapter provides a review of literature that covers methods of reliability analysis and also the background literature on design and analysis of computer experiments and extreme value analysis. The problem of reliability analysis of randomly parametered, linear (or) nonlinear structures subjected to static and (or) dynamic loads is considered in Chapter 2. A deterministic finite element model for the structure to analyze sample realization of the structure is assumed to be available. The reliability analysis is carried out within the framework of response surface methods, which involves the construction of surrogate models for performance functions to be employed in reliability calculations. These surrogate models serve as models of models, and hence termed as meta-models, for structural behavior in the neighborhood of design point. This construction, in the present study, has involved combining space filling optimal Latin hypercube sampling and kriging models. Illustrative examples on numerical prediction of reliability of a ten-bay truss and a W-seal in an aircraft structure are presented. Limited Monte Carlo simulations are used to validate the approximate procedures developed. The reliability of nonlinear vibrating systems under stochastic excitations is investigated in Chapter 3 using a two-stage Monte Carlo simulation strategy. Systems subjected to Gaussian random excitation are considered for the study. It is assumed that the probability distribution of the maximum response in the steady state belongs to the basin of attraction of one of the classical asymptotic extreme value distributions. The first stage of the solution strategy consists of an objective selection of the form of the extreme value distribution based on hypothesis tests, and the next involves the estimation of parameters of the relevant extreme value distribution. Both these steps are implemented using data from limited Monte Carlo simulations of the system response. The proposed procedure is illustrated with examples of linear/nonlinear single-degree and multi-degree of freedom systems driven by random excitations. The predictions from the proposed method are compared with results from large-scale Monte Carlo simulations and also with classical analytical results, when available, from theory of out-crossing statistics. The method is further extended to cover reliability analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems with randomly varying system parameters. Here the methods of meta-modeling developed in Chapter 2 are extended to develop response surface models for parameters of underlying extreme value distributions. Numerical examples presented cover a host of low-dimensional dynamical systems and also the analysis of a wind turbine structure subjected to turbulent wind loads and undergoing large amplitude oscillations. A summary of contributions made along with a few suggestions for further research is presented in Chapter 4.

A probabilistic methodology for the reliability analysis of composite rotor blades at the ply level was developed. The proposed methodology involves (i) the quantification of the uncertainties (physical, statistical and model) related to the material properties and the extreme aero-elastic loads based on experimental data as well as on 10 min load simulations respectively, (ii) the identification of the critical failure modes of the composite structure in terms of limit state functions and (iii) the selection of an appropriate reliability method to perform the analysis. It is pointed out that the reliability method should be able to handle the considerably large number of limit state function introduced by the ply level reliability approach and estimate the failure probability of the structure. To efficiently deal with the problem, an appropriate implementation of the Response Surface Method combined with crude Monte Carlo simulation was proposed. The methodology was implemented for two real rotor blade designs, namely a 30m Glass/Polyester and the 65m UPWIND reference rotor baled. Initially, calculations were performed for the first case study using a 3D shell FE formulation in a commercial probabilistic code. An efficient procedure was introduced to define the stochastic character of the concentrated loads acting on the 3D FE model starting from load time series of sectional stress resultants from aero-elastic beam simulations. For the first time such a detailed model was analyzed and assessed in a probabilistic base. Nevertheless, a considerable CPU time was in need for the performance of such a reliability analysis. The development of an efficient probabilistic tool capable to perform consecutive reliability analyses at the ply level of the composite rotor blade structure and prove valuable for the probabilistic design was carried out. To demonstrate the efficiency of the developed tool, the impact of various probabilistic modelling assumptions directly on the β-index value of a rotor blade design was studied. / Στην παρούσα διατριβή αναπτύχθηκε στοχαστική μεθοδολογία για την αποτίμηση αξιοπιστίας πτερυγίων ανεμογεννητριών από σύνθετα υλικά, στο επίπεδο της στρώσης, υπό ακραία στατική φόρτιση. Η προτεινόμενη μεθοδολογία περιλαμβάνει (i) την ποσοτικοποίηση αβεβαιοτήτων (φυσική, στατιστική και αβεβαιότητα μοντέλου) που σχετίζονται με τις βασικές παραμέτρους του πτερυγίου (υλικά και φορτία) στηριζόμενη σε ένα μεγάλο αριθμό πειραμάτων για τον προσδιορισμό των μηχανικών ιδιοτήτων του συνθέτου υλικού καθώς και 10-λεπτες αεροελαστικές χρονοσειρές για την ακραία στατική φόρτιση (ii) την αναγνώριση όλων των σημαντικών μηχανισμών αστοχίας της κατασκευής και την έκφρασή τους στη μορφή οριακών συναρτήσεων αστοχίας και (iii) την επιλογή μίας κατάλληλης μεθόδου αξιοπιστίας. Σημειώνεται ότι η μέθοδος αξιοπιστίας θα πρέπει να είναι ικανή να διαχειρίζεται ένα πολύ μεγάλο αριθμό οριακών συναρτήσεων αστοχίας όπως επιβάλει η ανάλυση αξιοπιστίας στο επίπεδο της στρώσης της κατασκευής. Για το σκοπό αυτό προτάθηκε μια κατάλληλη τροποποίηση της Response Surface Method τεχνικής η οποία συνδυάστηκε με την μέθοδο προσομοίωσης crude Monte Carlo. Η προτεινόμενη στοχαστική μεθοδολογία εφαρμόστηκε για την περίπτωση δυο πραγματικών πτερυγίων: ενός 30 m Glass/Polyester και του 65 m Glass/Epoxy (UPWIND) πτερυγίου. Η ανάλυση αρχικά πραγματοποιήθηκε σε γενικού σκοπού στοχαστικά εργαλεία κάνοντας χρήση τρισδιάστατου μοντέλου πεπερασμένων στοιχείων. Σημειώνεται ότι ο υπολογισμός των φορτίων από αεροελαστικούς κώδικες υλοποιείται πάντα στη βάση στοιχείων δοκού. Προτάθηκε επομένως διαδικασία για την στοχαστική αναπαράσταση των συγκεντρωμένων δυνάμεων που επιβάλλονται στο τρισδιάστατο μοντέλο πεπερασμένων στοιχείων του πτερυγίου στηριζόμενη σε χρονοσειρές εσωτερικών αντιδράσεων στη διατομή όπως εξάγονται από αεροελαστικους υπολογισμούς. Για πρώτη φορά σε αυτή την εργασία, πραγματοποιήθηκε η στοχαστική ανάλυση ενός τόσο λεπτομερειακού μοντέλου. Ωστόσο η παραπάνω προσέγγιση αποδείχτηκε αρκετά χρονοβόρα. Για το σκοπό αυτό αναπτύχθηκε υπολογιστικό εργαλείο ικανό να εκτελεί ένα μεγάλο αριθμό επαναλήψεων της προαναφερθείσας μεθοδολογίας και να φανεί χρήσιμο στο σχεδιασμό πτερυγίων με προκαθορισμένο επίπεδο αξιοπιστίας. Εξαιτίας της απλότητας της προετοιμασίας των δεδομένων εισόδου και της ταχύτητας επίλυσης, το νέο εργαλείο έδωσε τη δυνατότητα για τη μελέτη διαφόρων στατιστικών υποθέσεων που αφορούσαν τη δομική αξιοπιστία του πτερυγίου εξετάζοντας απευθείας τον δείκτη αξιοπιστίας β της κατασκευής.

A Engenharia de Ventos Baseada em Desempenho (Performance-based Wind Engineering - PBWE) é uma filosofia de projeto que preconiza identificar e quantificar as incertezas envolvidas no projeto estrutural a fim de assegurar níveis previsíveis de desempenho às edificações, não mais gerenciando o risco através da clássica abordagem determinística. Contudo, devido à recente proposição da metodologia, ainda há poucos estudos relacionados à PBWE, cada qual apresentando diferentes limitações. Assim, o presente trabalho propõe uma adaptação da metodologia da Engenharia de Ventos Baseada em Desempenho à análise probabilística do comportamento de torres metálicas, avaliando diferentes modelos de cálculo para estimativa das forças do vento neste tipo de estrutura. Para tanto, investigou-se as incertezas envolvidas na caracterização do campo de ventos e da resistência estrutural e foram analisados quatro métodos distintos para a estimativa das forças de vento em torres metálicas: dois procedimentos de cálculo correspondentes à norma brasileira de ventos ABNT NBR 6123:1988 (ABNT, 1988), a metodologia de Davenport (1993) e a de Holmes (1994). Um estudo de caso envolvendo a estimativa da confiabilidade de uma torre de telecomunicação também foi conduzido. Constatou-se que ambos os procedimentos de cálculo admitidos conduzem a níveis de segurança de mesma ordem de grandeza e que a elaboração de projetos de torres considerando a direção de incidência do vento como sendo a mais desfavorável à estrutura é demasiadamente conservadora. Como contribuição, verifica-se que o projeto ótimo de torres pode ser alcançado com base no nível de segurança desejado para diferentes velocidades máxima de vento associadas a intervalos de recorrência específicos. / Performance-based Wind Engineering (PBWE) is a design philosophy that aims to identify and quantify the uncertainties involved in the structural design in order to ensure predictable performance levels to buildings, no longer managing risk through the classical deterministic approach. However, due to the recent proposal of the methodology, there are few studies related to PBWE, each presenting different limitations. Thus, this paper proposes an adaptation of the Performance-based Wind Engineering methodology to the probabilistic analysis of the behavior of steel towers, evaluating different calculation models for estimating wind forces on this type of structure. To this end, uncertainties involved in the characterization of the wind field and structural strength were investigated and four different methods for the estimation of wind forces on steel towers were analyzed: two procedures relative to the Brazilian winds standard ABNT NBR 6123:1988 (ABNT, 1988), and the methodologies of Davenport (1993) and Holmes (1994). A case study concerning the reliability estimation of a telecommunication tower was also conducted. It was found that both assumed calculation procedures lead to security levels of the same order of magnitude and that the design of towers considering that the wind always blows from the worst direction is too conservative. As a contribution, it is found that the optimum design of towers can be achieved based on the desired security level for different maximum wind speeds associated to specific recurrence intervals.

Este trabalho apresenta um estudo da (não-)conformidade dos concretos estruturais produzidos no Brasil, bem como uma investigação da segurança de pilares curtos de concreto armado submetidos à compressão simples levando em conta a influência da (não-)conformidade da resistência do concreto. Esta investigação tem como base ensaios de resistência de mais de seis mil corpos-de-prova de diferentes localidades do Brasil. Estes ensaios mostram que parte significativa dos concretos atualmente produzidos no Brasil não atinge a resistência característica (fck) especificada em projeto. Como resultado, estes concretos deveriam ser considerados não-conformes e medidas de mitigação deveriam ser aplicadas. O trabalho investiga ainda o impacto da não-conformidade dos concretos produzidos no Brasil na confiabilidade de pilares curtos de concreto armado submetidos a compressão simples, quando medidas de reforço e recuperação não são adotadas. Para refletir o universo de condições de projeto, na análise de confiabilidade são consideradas quatro classes de resistência do concreto, quinze valores de razão de carregamento e três valores de taxa geométrica de armadura. O trabalho revela uma redução significativa da confiabilidade dos pilares curtos em função da não-conformidade dos concretos. Estes resultados reforçam a necessidade de um controle rigoroso no recebimento do concreto, bem como na fiscalização das medidas de mitigação no caso dos concretos não-conformes. / This paper presents a study of the strength (non-)compliance of structural concretes produced in Brazil, and an investigation of the safety of shortt reinforced concrete columns subjected to axial compression considering the influence of concrete strength (non-)compliance. The investigation is based on experimental results of over six thousand concrete samples from different parts of Brazil. Results show that a significant part of these concretes do not reach the characteristic strength specified in design. As a consequence, these concretes should be considered non-compliant, and mitigation measures should be adopted. The study also investigates the impact of concrete strength non-compliance on the reliability of short columns subject to axial compression, when mitigation measures are not adopted. In order to reflect different design conditions, four classes of concrete strength, fifteen load ratios and three reinforcement ratios are considered. The study reveals that concrete strength non-compliance significantly reduces the reliability of short columns. These results stress the necessity of a rigorous control of concrete deliveries, and the importance of a rigorous control of the mitigation actions, in case of concrete strength non-compliance.

O presente estudo trata do problema da corrosão de armaduras em estruturas de concreto armado submetidas à penetração de cloretos. É amplamente reconhecido nos meios técnico e científico que, dentre os diversos processos causadores de patologias nas estruturas de concreto armado, destacam-se aqueles que desencadeiam a corrosão das armaduras. O processo de corrosão é iniciado quando a concentração de cloretos na interface armadura/concreto atinge um valor limite, despassivando a camada química protetora ao redor da armadura. A utilização de uma abordagem probabilística é capaz de tratar o problema de forma mais consistente, uma vez que as variáveis envolvidas no fenômeno possuem um alto grau de aleatoriedade associado. A formulação utilizada para a análise não linear mecânica emprega o método dos elementos finitos, utilizando o modelo de dano de Mazars para descrever o comportamento do concreto e o modelo elastoplástico para descrever o comportamento do aço. A lei de Fick é empregada para descrever o mecanismo de difusão dos íons cloretos no interior dos elementos de concreto armado e leis empíricas são utilizadas para representar a penalização das áreas de aço das armaduras bem como a redução de sua tensão de escoamento. A formulação utilizada para a análise probabilística emprega o FORM (First Order Reliability Method), o método de superfície de resposta e a simulação de Monte Carlo. Enfoque especial é dado na análise de estruturas hiperestáticas, com o objetivo de determinar a probabilidade de falha do sistema, sendo esta uma das contribuições desse estudo. Os resultados obtidos indicam de que forma os efeitos corrosivos considerados contribuem para a redução da durabilidade estrutural. / This work deals with the problem of reinforcement corrosion of concrete structures subjected to chloride penetration. It is widely recognized in the technical and scientific communities that, among the different processes which cause pathologies in reinforced concrete structures, reinforcement corrosion is one of the most relevant. The corrosion process starts when chloride concentration at the reinforcement/concrete interface reaches a threshold value, causing depassivation of the protecting chemical layer surrounding the armor. A probabilistic approach is capable of dealing with the problem in a more consistent manner, since the variables involved in the phenomenon have a high degree of randomness. The formulation used in the mechanical non-linear analysis utilizes the finite element method, employing Mazars\' damage model to describe the concrete behavior and the elastoplastic model to describe the steel behavior. Fick\'s law is used to describe the diffusion mechanism of chloride ions inside the concrete elements and empirical laws are used to represent the steel area reduction as well as the reduction of steel yield stress. The formulation used for the probabilistic analysis employs the FORM (First Order Reliability Method), the response surface method and the Monte Carlo simulation. A contribution of this study concerns the analysis of hyper-static structures, in order to evaluate the failure probability of the system, giving special attention to this type of problem. The obtained results show how the considered corrosive effects influences the structural durability reduction.

Diploma thesis has been prepared as an architectural study on the completion of the Children's Hospital Ostrov u Macochy using the method of speleotherapy (in the Imperial cave). The new building respects the valuable natural surroundings (CHKO Moravian karst) and the existing sloping terrain, which adapts. Resort spa is designed as a single interconnected complex of three operations - building the house, primary school and the hospital itself. The complex includes: services to visitors, restaurant, pension, clinic, primary school, administration, children accommodation, dining, hospital and sports. The structural system of the object is combined. The idea of urban and architectural solutions is the simplicity of shapes, respecting the existing landscape, copy the shape of the terrain, functionality and aptness plan.

FAPEMIG - Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais / Esta Dissertação versa sobre a análise de confiabilidade de estruturas sujeitas a controle ativo e passivo de vibrações, com ênfase na aplicação dos métodos de confiabilidade de primeira ordem (FORM, First Order Reliability Method) e segunda ordem (SORM, Second Order Reliability Method). Esses são usados para calcular o índice de confiabilidade e, consequentemente, a probabilidade de falha de estruturas, considerando variáveis aleatórias modeladas segundo funções densidade de probabilidade. Três técnicas de controle são avaliadas: controle ativo empregando atuadores piezelétricos; controle passivo por absorvedores dinâmicos de vibrações e controle passivo baseado em atuadores piezelétricos conectados a circuitos shunt ressonantes. Para cada caso, são definidas funções de estado limite que descrevem limites operacionais e/ou requisitos de projeto, cuja avaliação é baseada em respostas obtidas por meio de modelos de elementos finitos das estruturas analisadas. Para cada uma das técnicas de controle, aplicações numéricas dos métodos FORM e SORM são realizadas considerando como estrutura principal uma treliça plana. Para efeito de avaliação da precisão das estimações de confiabilidade fornecidas por estes métodos, foram também utilizadas Simulações de Monte Carlo. A partir dos resultados, são discutidas as características específicas observadas para cada técnica de controle. Em específico, para duas delas foram identificados domínios de segurança e de falha de formas atípicas, em cujos casos, fica inviabilizado o uso dos métodos FORM e SORM. De modo geral, os resultados confirmam a importância e a conveniência de se aplicarem os métodos de análise de confiabilidade a estruturas sujeitas a procedimentos de controle de vibrações. / This dissertation is devoted to the reliability analysis of structures subjected to active and passive vibration control, with emphasis on the use of First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Second Order Reliability Method (SORM). These methods are used to evaluate the reliability indices and the associated failure probability, considering that the random variables are modeled by probability density functions. Three techniques of vibration control are considered, namely: active control using PZT stack actuators, passive control based on dynamic vibration absorbers, and passive control based on piezoelectric transducers connected to resonant shunt circuits. For each technique, limit state functions are defined related to the operational limitations or design requirements. Their evaluation is made from structural responses obtained from finite element models. For each control technique, numerical applications of FORM and SORM are carried-out for a two-dimensional truss, defined as the structure of interest. To assess the accuracy of the reliability estimations provided by those methods, Monte Carlo Simulations are also performed. The numerical results enable to put in evidence specific characteristics of each control technique as related to reliability. Specifically, for two of them it is verified the occurrence of atypical geometrical forms of the safety and failure domains, which preclude the use of FORM and SORM. In general, the results confirm the importance and convenience of performing reliability assessment of structures subjected to vibration control procedures. / Dissertação (Mestrado)

Increasing the operational speed of trains has attracted a lot of interest in the last decades and has brought new challenges, especially in terms of infrastructure design methodology, as it may induce excessive vibrations. Such demands can damage bridges, which in turn increases maintenance costs, endangers the safety of passing trains and disrupts passenger comfort. Conventional design provisions should therefore be evaluated in the light of modern concerns; nevertheless, several previous studies have highlighted some of their shortcomings. It should be emphasized that most of these studies have neglected the uncertainties involved, which preventsthe reported results from representing a complete picture of the problem. In this respect, the present thesis is dedicated to evaluating the performance of conventional design methods, especially those related to running safety and passenger comfort, using probabilistic approaches. To achieve this objective, a preliminary study was carried out using the first-order reliability method for short/medium span bridges passed by trains at a wide range of operating speeds. Comparison of these results with the corresponding deterministic responses showed that applying a constant safety factor to the running safety threshold does not guarantee that the safety index will be identical for all bridges. It also shows that the conventional design approaches result in failure probabilities that are higher than the target values. This conclusion highlights the need to update the design methodology for running safety. However, it would be essential to determine whether running safety is the predominant design criterion before conducting further analysis. Therefore, a stochastic comparison between this criterion and passenger comfort was performed. Due to the significant computational cost of such investigations, subset simulation and crude Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation using meta-models based on polynomial chaos expansion were employed. Both methods were found to perform well, with running safety almost always dominating the passenger comfort limit state. Subsequently, classification-based meta-models, e.g. support vector machines, k-nearest neighbours and decision trees, were combined using ensemble techniques to investigate the influence of soil-structure interaction on the evaluated reliability of running safety. The obtained results showed a significant influence, highlighting the need for detailed investigations in further studies. Finally, a reliability-based design optimization was conducted to update the conventional design method of running safety by proposing minimum requirements for the mass per length and moment of inertia of bridges. It is worth mentioning that the inner loop of the method was solved by a crude MC simulation using adaptively trained Kriging meta-models. / Att öka tågens hastighet har väckt stort intresse under de senaste decennierna och har medfört nya utmaningar, särskilt när det gäller broanalyser, eftersom tågen inducerar stora vibrationer. Sådana vibrationer kan öka underhållskostnaderna, äventyra säkerheten för förbipasserande tåg och påverka passagerarkomforten. Konstruktionsbestämmelser bör därför utvärderas mot bakgrund av dessa problem; dock har flera tidigare studier belyst några av bristerna i dagens bestämmelser. Det bör understrykas att de flesta av dessa studier har försummat de osäkerheter som är involverade, vilket hindrar de rapporterade resultaten från att representera en fullständig bild av problemet. I detta avseende syftar denna avhandling till att utvärdera prestandan hos konventionella analysmetoder, särskilt de som rör körsäkerhet och passagerarkomfort, med hjälp av sannolikhetsmetoder. För att uppnå detta mål genomfördes en preliminär studie med första ordningens tillförlitlighetsnmetod för broar med kort/medellång spännvidd som passeras av tåg med ett brett hastighetsspektrum. Jämförelse av dessa resultat med motsvarande deterministiska respons visade att tillämpa en konstant säkerhetsfaktor för verifieringen av trafiksäkerhet inte garanterar att säkerhetsindexet kommer att vara identiskt för alla broar. Det visar också att de konventionella analysmetoderna resulterar i brottsannolikheter som är högre än målvärdena. Denna slutsats belyser behovet av att uppdatera analysmetoden för trafiksäkerhet. Det skulle emellertid vara viktigt att avgöra om trafiksäkerhet är det dominerande designkriteriet innan ytterligare analyser genomförs. Därför utfördes en stokastisk jämförelse mellan detta kriterium och kriteriet för passagerarkomfort. På grund av den betydande. analystiden för sådana beräkningar användes delmängdssimulering och Monte-Carlo (MC) simulering med metamodeller baserade på polynomisk kaosutvidgning. Båda metoderna visade sig fungera bra, med trafiksäkerhet som nästan alltid dominerade över gränsningstillståndet för passagerarkomfort. Därefter kombinerades klassificeringsbaserade metamodeller som stödvektormaskin och beslutsträd genom ensembletekniker, för att undersöka påverkan av jord-brointeraktion på den utvärderade tillförlitligheten gällande trafiksäkerhet. De erhållna resultaten visade en signifikant påverkan och betonade behovet av detaljerade undersökningar genom ytterligare studier. Slutligen genomfördes en tillförlitlighetsbaserad konstruktionsoptimering för att föreslå ett minimikrav på erforderlig bromassa per längdmeter och tröghetsmoment. Det är värt att nämna att metodens inre loop löstes med en MC-simulering med adaptivt tränade Kriging-metamodeller. / <p>QC 20210910</p>

[ES] Los edificios históricos tienen un gran valor arquitectónico y cultural y son un bien muy preciado de nuestra civilización. Por ello, no es de extrañar que se hagan grandes esfuerzos para conservarlos. Sin embargo, a pesar de los avances en la investigación, el fuego sigue siendo una amenaza importante para lograr la conservación del patrimonio construido. Además, los códigos de incendios actuales no suelen proporcionar directrices o métodos específicos que tengan en cuenta las características únicas de los edificios históricos. En consecuencia, conseguir que estos edificios cumplan la normativa de seguridad contra incendios evitando al mismo tiempo la pérdida de patrimonio supone un gran reto. En este contexto, la presente tesis doctoral se centra en el análisis de la resistencia frente al fuego de los forjados de viguetas de madera y revoltones de ladrillos, que pueden encontrarse en muchos edificios históricos de todo el mundo, utilizando enfoques deterministas y probabilistas basados en el rendimiento. Además, la tesis propone modelos probabilísticos para caracterizar las propiedades físicas y mecánicas de la madera contemporánea e histórica a temperatura ambiente y a temperaturas elevadas, que se adoptan en dichos enfoques probabilistas. Debido a la singular geometría y configuración estructural de estos forjados históricos, los métodos establecidos por los códigos de incendios actuales para verificar su resistencia frente al fuego no son aplicables. Por ello, se propone una nueva metodología basada en el "Método de la sección reducida" de la actual EN 1995-1-2. A continuación, la metodología se aplica a un amplio número de forjados que abarcan diferentes luces, resistencias a flexión de la madera y exposiciones al fuego para evaluar la influencia de estos parámetros en la resistencia frente al fuego. Posteriormente, debido al considerable número de parámetros de entrada con una alta incertidumbre que influyen en la resistencia frente al fuego de los forjados de viguetas de madera y revoltones de ladrillos, se adopta un enfoque probabilístico. El análisis asume diferentes secciones transversales y luces para los forjados históricos, así como múltiples geometrías del sector de incendio. Además, considera la incertidumbre de las cargas permanentes y variables aplicadas, así como de las propiedades físicas y mecánicas de la madera a temperatura ambiente y a altas temperaturas. De este modo, en base a un gran número de simulaciones numéricas, se desarrollan curvas de fragilidad y se obtienen los índices de fiabilidad de los forjados históricos frente al fuego. Los resultados muestran que, aunque los enfoques probabilísticos pueden ayudar a preservar un número significativamente mayor de forjados históricos de viguetas de madera y revoltones de ladrillos, muchos de ellos pueden no cumplir los requisitos de resistencia frente al fuego establecidos por los códigos actuales, lo que es motivo de preocupación. Por lo tanto, llevar a cabo estos análisis resulta esencial para garantizar su resistencia frente al fuego y tomar medidas en caso necesario. En definitiva, esta tesis doctoral pretende promover la conservación racional de las estructuras históricas de madera y, en consecuencia, del patrimonio construido. Además, se prevé que los modelos deterministas y probabilistas propuestos también permitan el diseño de estructuras de madera más fiables y eficientes. Así, fomentando la rehabilitación frente a la demolición y la nueva construcción e incentivando el uso de la madera en nuevas estructuras, se puede contribuir también a la mejora de la sostenibilidad del sector de la construcción. Por último, se espera que esta tesis sirva para concienciar sobre la alta vulnerabilidad de los edificios históricos frente al fuego y, en última instancia, para fomentar futuras investigaciones encaminadas a la búsqueda de soluciones que permitan cumplir los requisitos de seguridad contra incendios sin comprometer el patrimonio existente. / [CA] Els edificis històrics tenen un gran valor arquitectònic i cultural i són un bé molt preuat de la nostra civilització. Per això, no és d'estranyar que es facen grans esforços per a conservar-los. No obstant això, malgrat els avanços en la investigació, el foc continua sent una amenaça important per a aconseguir la conservació del patrimoni construït. A més, els codis d'incendis actuals no solen proporcionar directrius o mètodes específics que tinguen en compte les característiques úniques dels edificis històrics. En conseqüència, aconseguir que estos edificis complisquen la normativa de seguretat contra incendis evitant al mateix temps la pèrdua de patrimoni suposa un gran repte. En este context, la present tesi doctoral se centra en l'anàlisi de la resistència al foc dels forjats de biguetes de fusta i revoltons de rajoles, que poden trobar-se en molts edificis històrics de tot el món, utilitzant enfocaments deterministes i probabilistes basats en el rendiment. A més, la tesi proposa models probabilístics per a caracteritzar les propietats físiques i mecàniques de la fusta contemporània i històrica a temperatura ambient i a temperatures elevades, que després s'adopten en els enfocaments probabilistes. A causa de la singular geometria i configuració estructural d'estos forjats històrics, els mètodes establits pels codis d'incendis actuals per a verificar la seua resistència al foc no són aplicables. Per això, es proposa una nova metodologia basada en el "Mètode de la secció reduïda" de l'actual EN 1995-1-2. A continuació, la metodologia s'aplica a un ampli nombre de forjats que abasten diferents llums, resistències a flexió de la fusta i exposicions al foc per a avaluar la influència d'estos paràmetres en la resistència al foc. Posteriorment, a causa del considerable nombre de paràmetres d'entrada amb una alta incertesa que influïxen en la resistència al foc dels forjats de biguetes de fusta i revoltons de rajoles, s'adopta un enfocament probabilístic. L'anàlisi assumix diferents seccions transversals i llums per als forjats històrics, així com múltiples geometries del sector d'incendi. A més, considera la incertesa de les càrregues permanents i variables aplicades, així com de les propietats físiques i mecàniques de la fusta a temperatura ambient i a temperatures elevades. D'esta manera, a partir d'un gran nombre de simulacions numèriques, es desenvolupen corbes de fragilitat i s'obtenen els índexs de fiabilitat dels forjats històrics davant del foc. Els resultats mostren que, encara que els enfocaments probabilístics poden ajudar a preservar un nombre significativament major de forjats històrics de biguetes de fusta i revoltons de rajoles, molts d'ells poden no complir els requisits de resistència al foc establits pels codis actuals, la qual cosa és motiu de preocupació. Per tant, dur a terme estes anàlisis resulta essencial per a garantir la seua resistència al foc i prendre mesures en cas necessari. En definitiva, esta tesi doctoral pretén promoure la conservació racional de les estructures històriques de fusta i, en conseqüència, del patrimoni construït. A més, es preveu que els models deterministes i probabilistes proposats també permeten el disseny d'estructures de fusta més fiables i eficients. D'esta manera, fomentant la rehabilitació per sobre de la demolició i la nova construcció i incentivant l'ús de la fusta en noves estructures, es pot contribuir també a la millora de la sostenibilitat del sector de la construcció. Finalment, s'espera que la present tesi doctoral servisca per a conscienciar sobre l'alta vulnerabilitat dels edificis històrics davant del foc i, en última instància, per a fomentar futures investigacions encaminades a la cerca de solucions que permeten complir els requisits de seguretat contra incendis sense comprometre el patrimoni existent. / [EN] Historic buildings hold significant architectural and cultural value and are a precious asset of our civilisation. It is therefore not surprising that great efforts are being made to preserve them. However, despite advances in research, fire remains a major threat to achieve the conservation of the built heritage. In addition, current fire codes generally do not provide specific guidelines or methods that address the unique characteristics of historic buildings. Consequently, bringing these buildings into compliance with fire safety regulations while avoiding heritage loss is a great challenge. In this context, the present doctoral thesis focuses on the analysis of the fire resistance of timber jack arch flooring systems, which can be found in many historic buildings around the world, using deterministic and probabilistic performance-based approaches. Furthermore, the thesis proposes probabilistic models to characterise the physical and mechanical properties of contemporary and historic timber at ambient and elevated temperatures, which are then adopted in such probabilistic approaches. Due to the singular geometry and structural configuration of these historic flooring systems, the methods established by current fire codes to verify their fire resistance are not applicable. Thus, a new methodology based on the "Reduced cross-section method" of the current EN 1995-1-2 is proposed. Then, the methodology is applied to a wide number of flooring systems covering different span lengths, timber bending strengths, and fire exposures to evaluate the influence of these parameters on the fire resistance. Subsequently, due to the considerable number of input parameters with high uncertainty that influence the fire resistance of timber jack arch flooring systems, a probabilistic approach is adopted. The analysis assumes different cross-sections, span lengths and geometries of the compartment where the fire occurs. Moreover, uncertainty in the applied permanent and live loads, as well as in the physical and mechanical properties of timber at ambient and elevated temperatures, is considered. Thus, based on a large number of numerical simulations, fire fragility functions are developed and the reliability indices of the historic flooring systems against fire are derived. The results of the fire resistance analyses show that, although probabilistic approaches can help to preserve significantly more historic timber jack arch flooring systems, many of them may not meet the fire resistance requirements set by current codes, which is a cause for concern. Conducting these analyses is therefore essential to ensure their fire resistance and take action where necessary. In summary, this doctoral thesis aims to promote the rational conservation of historic timber structures and, consequently, of the built heritage. Moreover, it is envisaged that the proposed deterministic and probabilistic models will also enable the design of more reliable and efficient timber structures. Thus, by fostering rehabilitation over demolition and new construction and by encouraging the use of timber in new structures, a more sustainable construction can also be achieved. Finally, the present doctoral thesis is expected to raise awareness of the high vulnerability of historic buildings to fire and, ultimately, encourage future research aimed at finding solutions that allow fire safety requirements to be met without compromising the existing heritage. / García Castillo, E. (2024). Analysis of the fire resistance of traditional timber flooring systems in historic buildings [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/207365