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This research tested the ability of fish morphology to predict membership of fishes in habitat guilds, their swimming performance, and habitat preference. Further, it considered methods for choosing a surrogate species to identify habitat of target species. Morphological discriminant functions were developed using morphological traits of fishes from one river to identify membership in two habitat guild systems (mesohabitat and microhabitat). Functions were then used to test factors influencing classification success of holdout tests and validated using fishes of a second river. Morphology was only partly successful (50%) at predicting membership in habitat guilds. Morphology identified species by shape, i.e., classifying test species into guilds with members of their genus, but not habitat use, because morphology and habitat were not strongly linked through function. By improving guild definition, relationships between morphology and habitat (Froude number) were identified for all fish groups examined (darters, benthic minnows, pelagic minnows, and suckers). Relationships were not transferable among groups. Further, morphology of eight minnows was linked to swimming performance, a key task for using habitat, in lab measurements of critical swimming speeds. In turn, swimming performance was related to habitat (Froude number). Morphology will be most successful at predicting habitat use of fishes when (1) more, discrete guilds are used, (2) guilds are identified within families, (3) variation in lifestyles (benthic vs. pelagic) is considered, and (4) key tasks related to using habitat are strongly associated with morphology. Finally, I examined a phylogenetic approach to identifying useable habitat. Closely related surrogate species were not more accurate in identifying habitat of target species than surrogates chosen by other methods. When a target species used only one mesohabitat, the highest overlap in habitat use occurred with other fishes of the same family using that mesohabitat (within a physiographic province). For target species using several mesohabitat types, surrogates from the next highest taxonomic unit, e.g., genus or subgenus, provided the most accurate information. Ecomorphology offers a mechanistic and defensible method for identifying habitat preferences of fishes and should be more widely considered as a tool for establishing habitat relationships of stream fishes. / Ph. D.

The Element Free Galerkin (EFG) method, which is based on the Moving Least Squares (MLS) approximation, is developed here for vibration, buckling and static analysis of homogenous and FGM plate with curvilinear stiffeners. Numerical results for different stiffeners configurations and boundary conditions are presented. All results are verified using the commercial finite element software ANSYS® and other available results in literature. In addition, the vibration analysis of plates with curvilinear stiffeners is carried out using Ritz method. A 24 by 28 in. curvilinear stiffened panel was machined from 2219-T851 aluminum for experimental validation of the Ritz and meshfree methods of vibration mode shape predictions. Results were obtained for this panel mounted vertically to a steel clamping bracket using acoustic excitation and a laser vibrometer. Experimental results appear to correlate well with the meshfree and Ritz method results. In reality, many engineering structures are subjected to random pressure loads in nature and cannot be assumed to be deterministic. Typical engineering structures include buildings and towers, offshore structures, vehicles and ships, are subjected to random pressure. The vibrations induced from gust loads, engine noise, and other auxiliary electrical system can also produce noise inside aircraft. Consequently, all flight vehicles operate in random vibration environment. These random loads can be modeled by using their statistical properties. The dynamical responses of the structures which are subjected to random excitations are very complicated. To investigate their dynamic responses under random loads, the meshfree method is developed for random vibration analysis of curvilinearly-stiffened plates. Since extensive efforts have been devoted to study the buckling and vibration analysis of stiffened panel to maximize their natural frequencies and critical buckling loads, these structures are subjected to in-plane loading while the vibration analysis is considered. In these cases the natural frequencies calculated by neglecting the in-plane compression are usually over predicted. In order to have more accurate results it might be necessary to take into account the effects of in-plane load since it can change the natural frequency of plate considerably. To provide a better view of the free vibration behavior of the plate with curvilinear stiffeners subjected to axial/biaxial or shear stresses several numerical examples are studied. The FEM analysis of curvilinearly stiffened plate is quite computationally expensive, and the meshfree method seems to be a proper substitution to reduce the CPU time. However it will still require many simulations. Because of the number of simulations may be required in the solution of an engineering optimization problem, many researchers have tried to find approaches and techniques in optimization which can reduce the number of function evaluations. In these problems, surrogate models for analysis and optimization can be very efficient. The basic idea in surrogate model is to reduce computational cost and giving a better understanding of the influence of the design variables on the different objectives and constrains. To use the advantage of both meshfree method and surrogate model in reducing CPU time, the meshfree method is used to generate the sample points and combination of Kriging (a surrogate model) and Genetic Algorithms is used for design of curvilinearly stiffened plate. The meshfree and kriging results and CPU time were compared with those obtained using EBF3PanelOpt. / Ph. D.

<p dir="ltr">Design under uncertainty (DUU) for spacecraft is crucial in ensuring mission success, especially given the criticality of their failure. To obtain a more realistic understanding of space systems, it is beneficial to holistically couple the modeling of the spacecraft and its trajectory as a multidisciplinary analysis (MDA). In this work, a MDA model is developed for an Earth-Mars mission by employing the general mission analysis tool (GMAT) to model the mission trajectory and rocket propulsion analysis (RPA) to design the engines. By utilizing this direct MDA model, the deterministic optimization (DO) of the system is performed first and yields a design that completed the mission in 307 days while requiring 475 kg of fuel. The direct MDA model is also integrated into a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to investigate the uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the spacecraft and trajectory system. When considering the combined uncertainty in the launch date for a 20-day window and the specific impulses, the time of flight ranges from 275 to 330 days and the total fuel consumption ranges from 475 to 950 kg. The spacecraft velocity exhibits deviations ranging from 2 to 4 km/s at any given instance in the Earth inertial frame. The amount of fuel consumed during the TCM ranges from 1 to 250 kg, while during the MOI, the amount of fuel consumed ranges from 350 to 810 kg. The usage of the direct MDA model for optimization and uncertainty quantification of the system can be computationally prohibitive for DUU. To address this challenge, the effectiveness of utilizing surrogate-based approaches for performing UQ is demonstrated, resulting in significantly lower computational costs. Gaussian processes (GP) models trained on data from the MDA model were implemented into the UQ framework and their results were compared to those of the direct MDA method. When considering the combined uncertainty from both sources, the surrogate-based method had a mean error of 1.67% and required only 29% of the computational time. When compared to the direct MDA, the time of flight range matched well. While the TCM and MOI fuel consumption ranges were smaller by 5 kg. These GP models were integrated into the DUU framework to perform reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) feasibly for the spacecraft and trajectory system. For the combined uncertainty, the DO design yielded a poor reliability of 54%, underscoring the necessity for performing RBDO. The DUU framework obtained a design with a significantly improved reliability of 99%, which required an additional 39.19 kg of fuel and also resulted in a reduced time of flight by 0.55 days.</p>

Being socially excluded seriously threatens individuals’ need to belong and emotional well-being. This article investigates to what extent different coping strategies help overcome these detrimental effects: thinking about real-life friends/enemies (i.e., orthosocial relationships, OSRs) and thinking about (dis)liked media characters (i.e., parasocial relationships, PSRs). Across three experiments (NPilot = 129, NStudy1 = 132, NStudy2 = 855), we first induced social exclusion using a virtual ball-tossing game. Afterward, we manipulated different relationship types and valences and compared them to non- or less-relational control conditions. As hypothesized, belongingness and emotional well-being increased from pre- to post-coping. This effect was fully mediated by perceived relationship closeness to the respective person(a). Highlighting that PSRs represent more than surrogates (i.e., secondary replacements of OSR), both relationship types did not differ in coping effectiveness. Moreover, positive relationships were more effective in fulfilling both coping goals than negative ones.

<p dir="ltr">Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) have increased significantly over the last decade, changing the urban mobility dynamics by shifting people from other modes of transportation, potentially affecting safety. While TNC companies promised to enhance urban mobility with more convenient end-to-end services, they were found to contribute to externalities like traffic congestion and safety issues. A deeper analysis is required to test the promise of TNC services and their impacts on cities. This study investigated the safety implications of the surge of TNC services in New York City (NYC) from 2017 to 2019. Specifically, we analyzed the changes in traffic safety performances using surrogate safety measures (SSMs) from 2017 to 2019 based on large-scale GPS trajectories generated by TNC vehicles in NYC.</p><p dir="ltr">This research utilized the twenty-eight days of high-quality and large-scale GPS-based trajectories of Uber vehicles to determine the critical surrogate safety measures (SSMs). To determine the potential traffic conflict and safety from SSMs, this research determined the SSMs based on evasive actions. In addition, this research also utilized real-world historical crash events, traffic flow, road conditions, land use, and congestion index to explore the relationship between critical SSMs and accidents. Additionally, this research extends to assess the socioeconomic inequalities from the perspective of increased TNCs and accidents.</p><p dir="ltr">Our findings indicate a significant increase in critical SSM events such as harsh braking and jerking citywide. These increases are particularly pronounced during off-peak hours and in peripheral areas of Manhattan and transportation hubs. Moreover, we observed stronger correlations between SSMs of TNC vehicles and injury/motorist accidents, compared to those involving pedestrians and cyclists. Despite the evident deterioration in SSMs, we noticed that the overall number of accidents in NYC from 2017 to 2019 has remained relatively stable possibly due to the reduction of traffic speeds. As such, a clustering analysis was conducted to unfold the nuanced patterns of SSMs/accident changes. Also, we find the existence of inequality in the increase in accidents and critical SSMs, and Manhattan is higher in inequality, especially in upper Manhattan. Moreover, individuals disadvantaged from low socioeconomic status and those living in deprived areas are experiencing more inequality from accidents and critical SSMs due to increased TNCs and accidents. This research enriches the understanding of how TNC services impact urban traffic safety. The findings of this research may help to get a holistic understanding of the road safety situations due to increased TNCs and accidents and help the policymakers and authorities to make informed decisions to develop a transportation system prioritizing all road users. Additionally, the methodology employed can be adapted for broader traffic safety applications or real-time monitoring of traffic safety performances using anonymous GPS trajectory segments.</p>

Thesis (PhD) -- Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A robust and efficient adaptive sampling algorithm for multivariate, multiple output rational interpolation models, based on convergents of Thiele-type branched continued fractions, is presented. A variation of the standard branched continued fraction method is proposed that uses approximation to establish a non-rectangular grid of support points. Starting with a low order interpolant, the technique systematically increases the order by optimally choosing new support points in the areas of highest error, until the desired accuracy is achieved. In this way, accurate surrogate models are established by a small number of support points, without assuming any a priori knowledge of the microwave structure under study. The technique is illustrated and evaluated on several passive microwave structures, however it is general enough to be applied to many modelling problems. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: 'n Robuuste en effektiewe aanpasbare monsternemingsalgoritme vir multi-veranderlike, multi-uittree rasionale interpolasiemodelle, gegrond op konvergente van Thiele vertakte volgehoue breukuitbreidings, word beskryf. 'n Variasie op die konvensionele breukuitbreidingsmetode word voorgestel, wat 'n nie-reghoekige rooster van ondersteuningspunte gebruik in die funksiebenadering. Met 'n lae orde interpolant as beginpunt, verhoog die algoritme stelselmatig die orde van die interpolant deur optimaal verbeterde ondersteuningspunte te kies waar die grootste fout voorkom, totdat die gewensde akuraatheid bereik word. Hierdeur word akkurate surrogaat modelle opgebou ten spyte van min inisiele ondersteuningspunte, asook sonder voorkennis van die mikrogolfstruktuur ter sprake. Die algoritme word gedemonstreer en geevalueer op verskeie passiewe mikrogolfstrukture, maar is veelsydig genoeg om toepassing te vind in meer algemene modelleringsprobleme.

This thesis examines the role of international organizations (IOs) at the domestic level. While International Relations (IR) offers an extensive literature on IOs, with understandings of IOs ranging from instruments of states to autonomous actors, it tends to ignore the role of IOs working at the domestic level, with an 'on-the-ground' presence of their own, and what this means for the IO's relationship with the state. The thesis develops a heuristic framework for understanding what is called IO 'domestication', which outlines a range of ways an IO can work domestically. It then focuses on one type domestication in particular: surrogate statehood, or cases where an IO substitutes for the state by providing services, executing functions of governance, and assuming authority in a given locale. The framework identifies indicators of surrogacy, the conditions for IO surrogacy, and reasons why it is sustained. It also considers the various types of relationship that can emerge from IO surrogacy between the IO and the state, ranging from states that willingly choose to abdicate responsibility to the IO, to states that partner with the IO. Empirically, the thesis examines these relationships through the case studies of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, which present a spectrum of UNHCR’s surrogacy over time. Ultimately, the thesis puts forth a counterintuitive claim: IOs that take on surrogate state properties actually have less influence on the states in which they are working. The analysis draws on two mechanisms to help explain this outcome: marginalisation of the state, and responsibility shifting.

Les procédés d'osmose inverse (OI) permettent la production d'eau recyclée de très haute qualité grâce à l'élimination de contaminants organiques et inorganiques et de micro-organismes. Le suivi du bon fonctionnement de ce procédé est nécessaire pour valider la rétention des virus pathogènes afin de protéger la santé des usagers. La présence de minéraux et matières organiques dans les effluents rend inévitable le colmatage des membranes lors de leur fonctionnement et diminue ainsi leur performance. Afin d'éviter et d'éliminer ces colmatages, les stations de traitements des eaux utilisent des produits chimiques. Ces derniers vont modifier les performances globales des membranes en polyamide comme par exemple la diminution de la perméabilité à l'eau, et plus particulièrement les performances de rétention des virus, or l'ensemble de ces perturbations n'est que très peu compris et donc peu maitrisé. L'abattement des virus par l'OI sur des membranes intègres ou modifiées (ex : colmatage) ont donc été déterminés en mesurant la rétention d'un virus modèle de type phage MS2 et de substituts comme les sels (mesurés par conductivité), la rhodamine-WT (R-WT) ou les sulfates. La conductivité est, en effet, la technique de contrôle standard dans les stations de traitement des eaux (échelle industrielle).Le premier objectif de ce travail est d'évaluer l'utilisation d'un autre paramètre, les matières organiques dissoutes (DOM) comme nouveau substitut de virus et de déterminer l'impact du dysfonctionnement des procédés d'OI sur l'abattement des DOM et des sels à l'échelle industrielle. Les DOM peuvent en effet également être utilisées comme indicateur de qualité des eaux en fonction de leurs compositions et de leurs concentrations. L'abattement des DOM est donc testé comme nouvelle technique de surveillance afin de distinguer les fuites des changements de performance des membranes. Il est conclu que les DOM peuvent être utilisées comme nouvelle technique de contrôle. De plus, une variation de l'abattement des DOM peut aider à identifier des fuites de manière plus robuste que par l'abattement des sels. Le deuxième objectif est de déterminer l'effet des défauts membranaires sur les abattements d'un virus modèle (phage MS2) et de quatre substituts (R-WT, DOM, sulfate et sels) à l'échelle de systèmes de laboratoire. Deux systèmes à flux longitudinal est utilisés : une membrane plane et un module à spirale. Dans un premier temps, l'effet du colmatage sur les abattements de ces différents virus et substituts est étudié. Le colmatage organique, créé en utilisant un mélange de matières organiques, a pour effet d'augmenter de plus de 0,1 log les abattements de la R-WT, des sels et des DOM. Cette augmentation générale peut être due au blocage des cavités de la membrane et/ou par la sorption des substituts sur les matières organiques.Le colmatage inorganique, créé en utilisant un mélange de sels, n'a pas d'effet sur le rejet des substituts sauf pour les sels qui montre un comportement différent entre les deux systèmes. Dans le système à membrane plane, la couche inorganique permet d'augmenter le passage des sels à travers la membrane. Par opposition, il n'y a pas d'effet sur leur abattement avec le module à spirale. Cette variation entre les deux systèmes peut être causée par la différence de configuration (module à spirale contre membrane plane). Dans un deuxième temps, l'effet du chlore (modes passif et actif) sur la rétention de ces cinq composés est mesuré. Après un contact de 9000 ppm.h de NaOCl à pH 7, la surface membranaire change chimiquement. La formation de liaison Cl dans la couche en polyamide et la rupture des liaisons NH provoquent l'augmentation de la perméabilité à l'eau et diminuent l'abattement de l'ensemble des substituts. Malgré une forte diminution de 1,2 log de l'abattement en sel, l'abattement minimum du phage MS2 reste de 3 log. / One of the major applications of reverse osmosis (RO) process is the production of high quality recycled water by providing a barrier to remove organic and inorganic contaminants as well as pathogens including viruses. In order to protect public health, validation and monitoring of the RO process integrity are necessary to ensure its correct operation. During operation a certain degree of fouling is inevitable and can reduce RO membrane performance. Thus, chemicals are often used in water treatment plants to prevent or remove the membrane fouling. However, these chemicals can modify the integrity of the polyamide layer on RO membrane overtime. Up-to-date, the impact of membrane's physical change on its virus removal efficiency cause by the chemical use during operation is still not well understood.A minimum virus removal efficiency of intact and impaired (e.g. by fouling) RO membranes can be ascertained by measuring the rejection of MS2 phage and virus surrogates such as salt as measured by conductivity, rhodamine-WT (R-WT) or sulphate. However, conductivity measurement is the only full-scale standard monitoring technique. The removal of dissolved organic matter (DOM), which has been used as an indicator of water quality, can possibly be used for this purpose.The first objective of this work was to assess the suitability of DOM as a virus surrogate and to determine the impact of process failure on salt and DOM rejection in full-scale plants. A change of the conductivity does not necessarily mean that the membrane integrity has been breached. Thus, DOM monitoring has been tested and combined with the conductivity monitoring in order to distinguish between leaks and changes in membrane performances. It was concluded that DOM could be used as new monitoring technique. Moreover, a variation of DOM rejection can help identifying leaks better than just conductivity profiling alone.The second objective was to determine the effect of membrane impairments on the rejection of one model virus (MS2 phage) and four virus surrogates (R-WT, DOM, sulphate and salt) using lab-scale RO set-ups. To this aim, two different cross-flow set-ups were used: a flat-sheet and a single 2.5” spiral-wound module.Firstly, the effects of organic fouling and scaling on the rejection of model virus and virus surrogates were studied separately. Organic fouling was created using a mix of organic foulants. The result of this study showed an increase of the rejection by more than 0.1 log for R-WT, salt and DOM. The general increase of the surrogates' rejection might be due to the blocking of cavities of the polyamide membrane and/or to the sorption of surrogates to the fouling layer, which was observed by different autopsy techniques.Scaling was created using a mix of inorganic salts in order to reconstitute the composition of a RO feed water and avoiding the presence of organic foulants. Scaling was found to have no impact on the rejection of all tested virus surrogates except for salt. Salt rejection showed a change of behaviour between different set-ups: with the 2.5” module set-up the inorganic layer led to a stabilisation of the salt rejection, whereas the salt rejection increased with the flat-sheet set-up. This could be explained by the variations of the systems configuration (i.e. spiral module versus flat-sheet, feed spacer height, etc.).Secondly, the long-term impact of membrane ageing by exposure to chlorine, either active under filtration or passive by soaking, on the rejection of the model virus and four surrogates was studied. After a contact time of 9000 ppm∙h NaOCl at pH 7, the membrane surface chemistry changed. The introduction of chlorine in the membrane chemistry and the breakage of amide bonds caused an increase of the water permeability and a decrease of the model virus and virus surrogates rejection.

Ce travail de thèse propose une méthodologie multi-échelle basée sur l'utilisation de modèles de substitution fonction de variables aléatoires, pour évaluer la fiabilité résiduelle d'ouvrages en béton atteints de réaction alcali-granulat (RAG), dans l'optique d'une meilleure maintenance. Les modèles de substitution, basés sur des développements en chaos de polynômes des paramètres d'une fonction de forme (sigmoïde dans les cas traités), ont été constitués à plusieurs échelles, afin notamment de réduire les temps de calculs des modèles physiques sous-jacents. A l'échelle microscopique, le modèle de RAG employé est celui développé par Multon, Sellier et Cyr en 2009, comprenant initialement une vingtaine de variables aléatoires potentielles. A l'issue d'une analyse de sensibilité de Morris, le modèle de substitution permet de reproduire la courbe de gonflement dans le temps du volume élémentaire représentatif en fonction de neuf variables aléatoires. L'utilisation du modèle de substitution construit, pour la prédiction des effets mécaniques du gonflement dû à la RAG sur une éprouvette, a nécessité de prendre en compte l'anisotropie de ces effets en améliorant les fonctions poids proposées par Saouma et Perotti en 2006. L'échelle de l'éprouvette étant validée par la confrontation des prédictions aux données expérimentales des travaux de thèse de Multon, une application à l'échelle du barrage de Song Loulou a été entreprise. Le calcul du comportement thermo-chemo-mécanique d'une pile d'évacuateur de crues, dont les résultats en déplacements ont pu être confrontés aux données d'auscultation fournies par l'entreprise AES-SONEL (devenue ENEO), a été réalisé. Des modèles de substitution ont été construits ensuite à l'échelle de la structure afin d'obtenir les déplacements aux points d'intérêt, liés aux états limites de fonctionnement des évacuateurs, et procéder ainsi à l'estimation de la fiabilité résiduelle du barrage. Les calculs d'analyse de sensibilité et la construction des modèles de substitution ont été implémentés en Fortran, Java et OpenTURNS Les calculs sur éprouvette et pile de barrage ont été effectués sous Cast3M. / This work proposes a multi-scale methodology based on the use of surrogate models function of random variables, to evaluate the residual reliability of concrete structures suffering from alkali-aggregate reaction (AAR), for a better maintenance purpose. Surrogate models, based on polynomial chaos expansion of the parameters of a shape function (sigmoid in the studied cases), have been constituted at several scales, in particular in order to reduce computation time of the underlying physical models. At the microscopic scale, the AAR model employed is that developed by Multon, Sellier and Cyr in 2009, initially comprising about twenty potential random variables. At the end of a Morris sensitivity analysis, the surrogate model enables to reproduce the expansion curve over time of the representative elementary volume as a function of nine random variables. The use of the built-in surrogate model in predicting the mechanical effects of AAR expansion on a concrete core required to take into account the anisotropy of these effects by improving the weight functions proposed by Saouma and Perotti in 2006. The core's scale being validated by the comparison of the predictions with the experimental data of Multon's thesis work, an application at the scale of the Song Loulou dam was undertaken. The computation of the thermo-chemo-mechanical behavior of a spillway stack, whose results in displacement could be compared with the auscultation data provided by the company AES-SONEL (now ENEO), was realized. Surrogate models were then constructed at the scale of the structure to obtain displacements at the points of interest, related to the operating limit states of the spillways, and thus to estimate the residual reliability of the dam. The sensitivity analysis computations as well as the construction of the surrogate models were implemented in Fortran, Java and OpenTURNS. Computations on concrete cores and Song Loulou dam spillway were performed under Cast3M.