Este estudo descreve os custos tributários que incidem sobre os contribuintes, tendo como enfoque principal a carga tributária. A carga tributária é conceituada e analisada nos seus aspectos teóricos, com destaque para a justa distribuição do ônus tributário entre as pessoas. No segundo momento são apresentadas e comparadas as diferentes metodologias das estimativas de carga tributária no Brasil, ressaltando as fontes de dados e as hipóteses simplificadoras de cada uma delas. Em seguida é descrito o procedimento para estimar no final de 2006 a carga tributária brasileira para 2005, evidenciando a disponibilidade de dados e as dificuldades de realizar essa tarefa. Finalmente são qualificadas as estimativas das diferentes instituições brasileiras em relação a seus objetivos, permitindo uma melhor compreensão das razões de alguma diferença nos valores calculados, que dependem basicamente do momento de sua divulgação e de sua finalidade. / This paper describes the tax expenses that fall on the contributors, and its main approach is the tax ratio. The tax ratio is conceptualized and analyzed in its theoretical aspects, emphasizing the fair distribution of the tax onus among people. Later, we present and compare the different methodologies of the estimates of tax ratio in Brazil, highlighting the sources of data and the simplifying hypothesis of each one of them. It is described the proceedings to estimate the tax ratio of 2005, at the end of 2006, highlighting the availability of data, as well as the difficulties to accomplish such task. Finally, we qualify the estimates of the different Brazilian institutions regarding their aims, allowing a better understanding of the reason for some discrepancies in the numbers, which basically depend on the moment of their release and on their purpose.

Este estudo descreve os custos tributários que incidem sobre os contribuintes, tendo como enfoque principal a carga tributária. A carga tributária é conceituada e analisada nos seus aspectos teóricos, com destaque para a justa distribuição do ônus tributário entre as pessoas. No segundo momento são apresentadas e comparadas as diferentes metodologias das estimativas de carga tributária no Brasil, ressaltando as fontes de dados e as hipóteses simplificadoras de cada uma delas. Em seguida é descrito o procedimento para estimar no final de 2006 a carga tributária brasileira para 2005, evidenciando a disponibilidade de dados e as dificuldades de realizar essa tarefa. Finalmente são qualificadas as estimativas das diferentes instituições brasileiras em relação a seus objetivos, permitindo uma melhor compreensão das razões de alguma diferença nos valores calculados, que dependem basicamente do momento de sua divulgação e de sua finalidade. / This paper describes the tax expenses that fall on the contributors, and its main approach is the tax ratio. The tax ratio is conceptualized and analyzed in its theoretical aspects, emphasizing the fair distribution of the tax onus among people. Later, we present and compare the different methodologies of the estimates of tax ratio in Brazil, highlighting the sources of data and the simplifying hypothesis of each one of them. It is described the proceedings to estimate the tax ratio of 2005, at the end of 2006, highlighting the availability of data, as well as the difficulties to accomplish such task. Finally, we qualify the estimates of the different Brazilian institutions regarding their aims, allowing a better understanding of the reason for some discrepancies in the numbers, which basically depend on the moment of their release and on their purpose.

Este estudo descreve os custos tributários que incidem sobre os contribuintes, tendo como enfoque principal a carga tributária. A carga tributária é conceituada e analisada nos seus aspectos teóricos, com destaque para a justa distribuição do ônus tributário entre as pessoas. No segundo momento são apresentadas e comparadas as diferentes metodologias das estimativas de carga tributária no Brasil, ressaltando as fontes de dados e as hipóteses simplificadoras de cada uma delas. Em seguida é descrito o procedimento para estimar no final de 2006 a carga tributária brasileira para 2005, evidenciando a disponibilidade de dados e as dificuldades de realizar essa tarefa. Finalmente são qualificadas as estimativas das diferentes instituições brasileiras em relação a seus objetivos, permitindo uma melhor compreensão das razões de alguma diferença nos valores calculados, que dependem basicamente do momento de sua divulgação e de sua finalidade. / This paper describes the tax expenses that fall on the contributors, and its main approach is the tax ratio. The tax ratio is conceptualized and analyzed in its theoretical aspects, emphasizing the fair distribution of the tax onus among people. Later, we present and compare the different methodologies of the estimates of tax ratio in Brazil, highlighting the sources of data and the simplifying hypothesis of each one of them. It is described the proceedings to estimate the tax ratio of 2005, at the end of 2006, highlighting the availability of data, as well as the difficulties to accomplish such task. Finally, we qualify the estimates of the different Brazilian institutions regarding their aims, allowing a better understanding of the reason for some discrepancies in the numbers, which basically depend on the moment of their release and on their purpose.

長久以來，中共實施統收統支制度，租稅的作用根本不受到重視，其結果造成民生凋 敝，經濟幾乎面臨崩潰。一九七八年以後，中共基於現實環境中改革財經流弊的需要 ，開始重視租稅制度，著手租稅改革，重新肯定租稅存在的價值，尤其國營企業利改 稅制度實施以後，又為了配合多種經濟並存的政策，設置了各自相應的所得稅制度， 企業所得稅已成為中共當局用以調節企業經濟利益的一個重要的經濟槓桿。 本論文主要針對中共特有的租稅理論為何？根據此一理論所建立與發展的租稅制度以 及實行的結果如何？面對現行制度的缺失，中共將如何改革？並嘗試對改革內容作一 評估。

觀察近年來一些工業化國家「稅收與稅率反向變動」的情形，彷佛落入「拉佛曲線」(Laffer Curve)負斜率的地方；為探求拉佛曲線在租稅理論基礎上的可信度，乃引發研究本文之動機。 二、研究方法： 本文以Yunker(1986)的單一部門新古典模型為基礎，首次將「租稅逃避」的概念加入模型中，重新檢視在租稅逃避行為存在的前提下，稅收的稅率彈性之變化。此外，本文根據Lucas-Rapping(1970) 之有關長期與短期總合勞動供給彈性之實證研究結果，將拉佛曲線區分為「長期拉佛曲線」和「短線拉佛曲線」，與Buchanan and Lee(1982)依「需求理論」所導出之長期和短期拉佛曲線，得以相互對映。 實證分析部分，本文以我國近二十年來的綜所稅為對象，利用時間序列分析，迴歸估計綜所稅的稅收方程式，以期瞭解綜所稅稅收的稅率彈性之正、負符號及大小；並由稅收方程式中分離出「未逃避租稅的比例」(?) 與「有效稅率」(t?)，進而瞭解租稅逃漏與租稅規避對綜所稅稅基的影響。 三、研究發現： 本文將Yunker(1986)的模型修正之後發現，在租稅逃避的情況下，儘管生產要素的供給並不富於彈性，亦有可能使經濟體系落入拉佛曲線負斜率的地方。此外，本文導出稅率彈性較大的長期拉佛曲線，和稅率彈性較小的短期拉佛曲線，顯示長期下較有利於政府稅收的最大比。 我國綜所稅的實證結果發現，綜所稅的稅率彈性為正，且長期下（恆定狀態）的稅率彈性較短期內為大。至於租稅逃避的情形顯示，我國近二十年來綜所稅的有效稅率平均不到5%，稅基侵蝕不可不謂嚴重。 / Beck, John H., “AN ANALYSIS OF THE SUPPLY-SIDE EFF-ECTS OF TAX CUTS IN IS-LM MODEL”, National Tax Journal vol.32(December 1979).493-499 Bender, Bruce, “AN ANALYSIS OF THE LAFFER CURVE”, Economic Inquiry vol . 22(July 1984) ,414-420. Bosworth, Barry P. ,Tax Incentives And Economic Growth, Brookings Institution 1984. Buchanan, James H. and Lee, Dwight R.,•' POLITICS , TIME, and the LAFFER CURVE" , Journal of Political Economy vol.90(1982) ,816-819. --------- and --------- "TAX RATES AND TAX REVENUES IN POLITICAL EQUILIBRIUH SOME SIMPLE ANALYTICS” ,Economic Inquiry vol.20(July 1982),344-354. Canto, Victor A. ,Joines, Douglas H .Laffer, Arthur B. ,FOUNDATIONS OF SUPPLY-SIDE ECONOMICS Theory and Evidence ,New York: Acadermic Press Inc.1983. Cross, Rodney, and Shaw, G. K. “ON THE ECONOMICS OF TAX AVERSION”, Public Finance vol.37(1982),36-47 Feldstein, Martin, “Supply Side Economics: Old Truths and New Claims" ,The American Economic Review vol.76 no.2(May 1986),26-30 Fullerton. Don, "ON THE POSSIBILITY OF AN I NVERSE RELATIONSHIP BET~EEN TAX RATES AND GOVERNMENT REVENUES”, Journal of Public Economics ol.19(1982).3-22 Gahvari, Firouz, “DOES THE LAFFER CURVE EVER SLPOE DOWN?” National Tax Journal vol.XLI(1988),267-269 Klein, Lawrence R.,•' The Supply Side., ”The American Economic Review vol.58 no.1 (March 1978) ,1-7. Malcomson, James M., “SOME ANALYTICS OF THE LAFFER CURVE”, Journal of Public Economics vol.29(1986) ,263-279. ShaIIer, DougIas R., “The Tax-Cut-But-Revenue-will - Not-Decline Hypothrsis and the Classical Macromodel”, Southern Economic Journal vol.49 (1983),1147-1154. Waud, Roger N. “TAX AVERSION, OPTIMAL TAX RATES, AND INDEXATION”, Public Finance vol.43(1988)310-325 Yunker, James A., “A SUPPLY SIDE ANALYSIS OF THE LAFFER HYPOTHESIS”, Public Finance vol.41(1986),372-392

This paper investigates the automatic stabilizer and the underlying factors behind its function. The paper includes both a literature review and an empirical analysis. The literature review discusses the IS-LM and Mundell-Fleming models and different ways to quantify the automatic stabilizer. Based on the theory, the relationship between volatility in GDP and the size of the automatic stabilizers is then analyzed with the help of regressions. Our main result shows a negative relation between these two variables. This effect seems to be decreasing over time, which may be explained by an increased openness. However, it is hard to tell if the decreasing effect is a long-term development or just a result of the most recent financial crisis.

The focus of my research is dynamic political economy in macroeconomics. The first chapter of my dissertation studies the fact that Countries in the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) vary widely in their ratio of capital tax rates to labor tax rates. This chapter’s motivation is the strong negative correlation between the capital/labor tax ratio and old dependency ratio (defined as the ratio of population older than 65 years old to population between 20 and 65 years old) among 21 OECD countries. I study a parsimonious overlapping generations (OLG) majority voting model. In equilibrium, the retired households and relatively old working households hold a large amount of capital and vote for a low capital tax rate (implying a high labor tax rate), while relatively young working households hold a small amount of capital and vote for a high capital tax rate (implying a low labor tax rate). As a result, the model implies that countries with more old people have relatively lower capital taxes. The model takes the old dependency ratio as given and delivers a capital/labor tax ratio chosen by the median voter. The calibrated model presented here can generate not only this negative correlation, but also the tax ratios for the 21 OECD countries studied. In the second chapter, I extend the first chapter and study the Japanese economy and taxation for the past three decades. Population aging is a serious social issue in Japan. This chapter also shows that demographics is an important variable to explain the time series data of capital and labor tax rates. Interestingly, the model predicts that a benevolent or utilitarian government would set a capital tax rate to be zero as in many standard tax models. This result emphasizes the importance of modeling a political economy, as opposed to a standard social planning economy that has been extensively used previously. Finally, the third chapter focuses on US immigration policy. Illegal immigration from Mexico to the United States has been a hot topic to academic researchers and policy makers. This study quantitatively investigates the welfare effects of illegal immigration to native households in the US. More specifically, I simulate the model economy when the government deports every illegal immigrant. The simulation shows that the social welfare increases by 0.01 percent on average, and the poorest households’ welfare increases by 0.1%. Although, initially, there is a decrease in the interest rate and the unemployment rate as well as an increase in the wage, these variables in the no-illegal-immigrant steady state are almost identical to the initial steady state which is calibrated to the US economy. / text