本文研究目的旨在探討所得不均度對自殺率之影響，採用臺灣2004年至2010年23個縣市的追蹤資料（panel data），使用行政院主計處家庭收支調查報告之年度原始資料，計算自2004年至2010年台灣地區23縣市之吉尼係數作為所得不均度代理變數。 實證結果顯示吉尼係數對總自殺率、男性與25至44歲年齡組自殺率的效果是不顯著的正相關。本文認為，2004至2010年吉尼係數均維持在0.34左右，而且變化不大，以及樣本年度不足，可能是實證結果不顯著的原因之一。此外，由於用以計算吉尼係數之可支配所得並未納入資本利得，導致吉尼係數偏低亦可能是實證結果不顯著的另一個原因。 然而，吉尼係數對於男性自殺率及25至44歲自殺率估計係數的大小卻是值得注意，隱含這二個族群非常關注所得分配的公平性，建議政府在短期政策上可就獨厚富人之賦稅不公平現況加以改善，以達杜漸防微之效。 / This study investigates the impact of income inequality on suicide rate in Taiwan. Using panel data of 23 countries for the period 2004-2010, As a proxy for income inequality, Gini coefficients based on the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure, compiled by the Department of Government of Budget. Empirical results show Gini coefficient has a positive but statistically insignificant effect on total, male and aged 25-44 suicide rates. This paper argues that the Gini coefficient remain around 0.34 for the period of 2004-2010 without significant change, and only 7 years of data may be part of the reason why empirical result is not significant, another reason that might cause Gini coefficient lower is one of the element "disposable income" it did not included capital gain. However, the most noteworthy feature is the magnitude of the Gini coefficients for male and aged 45-64. In other words, these two groups are concerned on the fairness of income distribution. In order to prevent the suicide rate goes higher, government should change the unfair taxes that benefit the riches right away.

本文主要研究臺灣23縣市的絕對所得（平均所得）及相對所得（所得分配）對縣市間人口遷移的影響，並進一步分別探討對男性、女性遷移的影響。影響因素除了絕對所得及相對所得外，也參考其他文獻加入失業率、犯罪人口率、平均每人享有政府公共支出淨額及就業者之行業結構等變數，探討其對縣市間人口遷移的影響。 本研究人口遷移資料採用內政部戶政司網站公布之縣市遷入及遷出資料；平均所得、失業率、犯罪人口率、公共支出及行業結構等採用行政院主計總處之《中華民國統計資訊網》縣市重要統計指標查詢系統；所得不均度使用行政院主計總處「臺灣地區家庭收支調查報告」之原始家戶所得資料計算出縣市別的家戶吉尼係數來代表各縣市的所得分配程度；本研究使用1999年至2010年之資料。實證結果顯示，代表絕對所得的平均每戶可支配所得對總遷移率、男性遷移率、女性遷移率均呈現顯著正相關，且由絕對所得平方的係數均為顯著負相關，顯示縣市平均所得影響遷移是正向的，而其影響強度是遞減的，即邊際效果遞減，表示所得影響遷移的效果會漸漸達到一最高點後緩降；代表相對所得的所得分配吉尼係數對總遷移率、男性遷移率、女性遷移率均呈現不顯著正相關，表示所得分配程度對遷移決策的影響並未達統計顯著水準 / This study investigates the impact of absolute income and relative income on migration rates in Taiwan using the panel data of 23 counties for the period 1999-2010. In addition to the absolute income and relative income, the unemployment rate, criminal rate, public expenditure per citizen and industry structure are also included in the estimation models. The empirical results demonstrate that the average household income as a proxy for absolute income has a significantly positive effect on total, male and female migration rates. Besides, the coefficient of the square of absolute income is significantly negative, indicating that there is an inverse U-shape relationship between absolute income and migration rate in Taiwan. However, our estimation results show that the income inequality does not have a significant influence on migration decisions in Taiwan.

Masters in Public Administration - MPA / South Africa

O dilema do prisioneiro (DP) é um dos principais jogos da teoria dos jogos. No dilema do prisioneiro discreto (DPD), dois prisioneiros têm as opções de cooperar ou desertar. Um jogador cooperador não delata seu comparsa, já um desertor delata. Se um cooperar e o outro desertar, o cooperador fica preso por cinco anos e o desertor fica livre. Se ambos cooperarem, ficam presos por um ano e, se ambos desertarem, ficam presos por três anos. Quando o DP é repetido, a cooperação pode emergir entre agentes egoístas. Realizamos um estudo analítico para o DPD, que produziu uma formulação da evolução do nível médio de cooperação e da tentação crítica (valor de tentação que causa mudança abrupta do nível de cooperação). No dilema do prisioneiro contínuo (DPC), cada jogador apresenta um nível de cooperação que define o grau de cooperação. Utilizamos o DPC para estudar o efeito da personalidade dos jogadores sobre a emergência da cooperação. Para isso, propusemos novas estratégias: uma baseada na personalidade dos jogadores e outras duas baseadas na comparação entre o ganho obtido e a aspiração do jogador. Todas as estratégias apresentavam algum mecanismo de cópia do estado do vizinho com maior ganho na vizinhança, mecanismo este, herdado da estratégia darwiniana. Os resultados mostraram que o DPC aumenta o nível médio de cooperação do sistema, quando comparado ao DPD. No entanto, as diferentes estratégias não aumentaram a cooperação comparado à cooperação obtida com a estratégia darwiniana. Então propusemos o uso do coeficiente de agrupamentos, coeficiente de Gini e entropias de Shannon, Tsallis e Kullback-Leibler para classificar os sistemas, em que os agentes jogam o DPD com a estratégia darwiniana, quanto ao nível de cooperação. Como analisamos valores de médias configuracionais, tais classificadores não foram eficientes ao classificar os sistemas. Isso é consequência da existência de distribuições de extremos nos resultados que compõem as médias. As distribuições de extremos suscitaram uma discussão acerca da definição do regime de cooperação no dilema do prisioneiro. Discutimos também as consequências de utilizar apenas valores médios nos resultados ignorando seus desvios e as distribuições. / Prisoner\'s dilemma (PD) is one of the main games of game theory. In discrete prisoner\'s dilemma (DPD), two prisoners have the options to cooperate or to defect. A cooperator player does not defect his accomplice, while a defector does. If one player cooperates and the other defects, the cooperator gets jailed for five years and the defector goes free. If both cooperate, they get jailed during one year and if both defect, they get jailed during three years. When this game is repeated, cooperation may emerge among selfish individuals. We perform an analytical study for the DPD, that produced a formulation for the evolution of the mean cooperation level and for the critical temptation values (temptation values that promote abrupt modifications in the cooperation level). In continuous prisoner\'s dilemma (CPD), each player has a level of cooperation that defines his/her degree of cooperation. We used the CPD to study the effect of the players\' personality on the emergence of cooperation. For this, we propose new strategies: one based on the players\' personality and two others based on the comparison between the player\'s obtained payoff and the desire one. All strategies present some mechanism that copies the state of the neighbor with the highest payoff in the neighborhood, mechanism inherited from the Darwinian strategy. The results showed that the CPD increases the average cooperation level of the system when compared to DPD. However, different strategies do not increased the cooperation compared to cooperation obtained with the Darwinian strategy. So, we propose the use of cluster coefficient, Gini coefficient and entropy of Shannon, Tsallis and Kullback-Leibler as classifiers to classify systems, in which the individuals play DPD with Darwinian strategy, by the cooperation level. As configurational averages were analyzed, such classifiers were not efficient in classifying the systems. This is due to the existence of distributions with extreme values of the results that compose the means. Distributions with extremes values emerged a discussion about the definition of the cooperation state in the prisoner\'s dilemma. We also discussed the consequences of using only average results in the analysis ignoring their deviations and distributions.

Predictive power of classification models can be evaluated by various measures. The most popular measures in data mining (DM) are Gini coefficient, Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and lift. These measures are each based on a completely different way of calculation. If an analyst is used to one of these measures it can be difficult for him to asses the predictive power of a model evaluated by another measure. The aim of this thesis is to develop a method how to convert one performance measure into another. Even though this thesis focuses mainly on the above-mentioned measures, it deals also with other measures like sensitivity, specificity, total accuracy and area under ROC curve. During development of DM models you may need to work with a sample that is stratified by values of the target variable Y instead of working with the whole population containing millions of observations. If you evaluate a model developed on a stratified data you may need to convert these measures to the whole population. This thesis describes a way, how to carry out this conversion. A software application (CPM) enabling all these conversions makes part of this thesis. With this application you can not only convert one performance measure to another, but you can also convert measures calculated on a stratified sample to the whole population. Besides the above mentioned performance measures (sensitivity, specificity, total accuracy, Gini coefficient, Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic), CPM will also generate confusion matrix and performance charts (lift chart, gains chart, ROC chart and KS chart). This thesis comprises the user manual to this application as well as the web address where the application can be downloaded. The theory described in this thesis was verified on the real data.

O objetivo primordial deste trabalho é analisar se a democracia é uma instituição política que produz resultados econômicos menos desiguais do que os regimes autoritários. A importância deste tema reside no fato que a própria promoção da democracia na agenda da política internacional tornou-se fundamental por inúmeras razões entre as quais sua suposta propensão em reduzir estas disparidades econômicas. Em primeiro lugar apresentamos no Capítulo 1 um balanço da discussão teórica e empírica a partir da qual constatamos que, a despeito do senso comum de que a democracia está relacionada a uma cidadania mais igualitária, os seus efeitos sobre a desigualdade ainda são discutíveis. Mesmo existindo um razoável consenso teórico de que os regimes democráticos devem, de alguma forma, produzir uma melhor distribuição de bens, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos e contraditórios. Em seguida, diante de tal impasse empírico, propomos no Capítulo 2 uma reformulação da argumentação na qual entendemos que os efeitos da democracia sobre a desigualdade devem ser reinterpretados. A principal contribuição da tese reside na constatação, tanto teórica quanto empírica, de que estes efeitos são heterogêneos e interagem com o próprio nível de desigualdade, e, por conseguinte, é equivocado o suposto de que esses efeitos são homogêneos e independentes do contexto sócio-econômico da desigualdade. No Capítulo 3 apresentamos os dados e os conceitos de democracia e desigualdade. Assumimos que democracia se caracteriza como o regime político no qual os líderes competem entre si por meio de eleições e verificamos se os seus efeitos variam ao longo da própria distribuição de desigualdade econômica mensurada pelo coeficiente de GINI. Para tal análise, realizamos uma série de modelos de regressão quantílica, a metodologia adequada para avaliar o debate sobre a heterogeneidade versus homogeneidade dos efeitos. O argumento teórico, a partir do qual elabora-se a hipótese dos efeitos heterogêneos, refere-se à necessidade de uma convergência entre os interesses eleitorais dos partidos o lado da oferta e as clivagens sobre as quais uma potencial maioria dos eleitores tem interesse em ser atendido o lado da demanda por políticas públicas e plataformas. Isto posto, é 9 necessário discutir as condições que estimulam as lideranças políticas a utilizarem o problema da desigualdade econômica como argumento eleitoral e as condições nas quais surge uma demanda dos cidadãos por redistribuição via ação estatal. Somente nas sociedades mais desiguais tanto os partidos políticos têm interesse em ofertar políticas redistributivas, quanto tende a surgir no seio da cidadania uma demanda por redistribuição por parte de uma maioria de eleitores. No Capítulo 4 comprovamos empiricamente que os efeitos da competição democrática em sociedades mais desiguais são diferentes seus efeitos em sociedades mais iguais; e estes efeitos estão em direção à maior redução da desigualdade apenas nas sociedades mais desiguais. Os resultados são robustos às mais diferentes especificações dos modelos estatísticos, dados e formas de mensuração, tanto de democracia quanto de desigualdade, em diferentes cortes temporais e horizontes históricos de análise. Inclusive quando estendemos o recorte temporal para antes do pós-2ª Guerra Mundial utilizando dados que abrangem o período de surgimento dos primeiros regimes representativos democráticos no século XIX, a veracidade das hipóteses dos efeitos heterogêneos e de que há maior contundência da democracia em direção à redução da desigualdade nas sociedades mais desiguais permanece. Por fim, além deste problema teórico e empírico de crucial importância, também controlamos a análise para a potencial relação recíproca entre democracia e desigualdade. Enquanto parte da literatura discute os potenciais efeitos igualitários da democracia, outra importante literatura debate se o aumento da desigualdade aumenta ou reduz a probabilidade de um país tornar-se ou manter-se democrático. Posto isto, apresentamos uma lista de variáveis instrumentais para estimar validamente os efeitos da democracia sobre a desigualdade independente da relação entre desigualdade e democracia / The primary aim of this study is to analyze whether democracy is a political institution that produces less unequal economic outcomes than authoritarian regimes. The importance of this issue lies in the fact that the very promotion of democracy in the international political agenda has become essential for many reasons, including its supposed propensity to reduce economic disparities. First, at Chapter 1 we overview the theoretical and empirical discussion from which we find that despite the common sense that democracy must be related to a more egalitarian citizenship, its effects on inequality is still debatable. Even with a reasonable theoretical consensus that democracies must somehow produce a better distribution of goods; the empirical results are inconclusive and contradictory. After that, facing such empirical impasse, we propose at Chapter 2 a reformulation about the rationale to explain and analyze the effects of democracy on inequality. The main contribution of this thesis lies in both the theoretical and the empirical claim that these effects are heterogeneous and should interact with the level of inequality and, therefore, the assumption that these effects are homogeneous and independent of the socio-economic context of inequality is wrong. In Chapter 3, we present the data and concepts of democracy and inequality. We assume that democracy is characterized as a political regime in which leaders compete through elections and we test whether the effects vary along the distribution of economic inequality measured by the Gini coefficient. To do that, we conducted a series of quantile regression models, appropriate to evaluate the alternative hypothesis whether the effects are heterogeneous or homogenous. The theoretical argument, from which we elaborate the hypothesis of heterogeneous effects, refers to the need for a convergence between the electoral interests of the parties - the supply side - and the political cleavages on which a majority of voters have potential interest being played - the demand side for other public policies and platforms. Hence, it is necessary to discuss the conditions that lead the political leadership to use the problem of economic 11 inequality as an electoral argument and the conditions under which a demand by citizens for redistribution via state action rises. Only at the most unequal societies the political parties have an interest in offering redistributive policies, as well as there is a higher propensity for a redistribution demand by a majority of voters. In Chapter 4, we proved empirically that the effects of democratic competition at more unequal societies are different from the effects of democracy in more equal societies; and these effects tend to be greater toward inequality reduction only at more unequal societies. These results are robust to different statistical model specifications, data and measurement methods, about both democracy and inequality, and to the use of different time horizons. Even when we extend the time frame of the analysis to the period before World War II - using new data that covers XIX century, the veracity of the hypotheses about the heterogeneous effects and that these effects of democracy toward the reduction of inequality are larger at the most unequal societies remains intact. Finally, beyond this theoretical and empirical issue of crucial importance, we also control the analysis for potential reciprocal relationship between democracy and inequality. This is because while much of the literature discusses the potential effects of egalitarian democracy, another important literature debate discusses whether greater inequality increases or reduces the probability of a country become or remain democratic. Hence, we present a list of valid instrumental variables to estimate the effects of democracy on inequality independent of the relationship between inequality and democracy

論文提要 改革是社會主義制度的自我完善與發展，是經濟體制和經濟增長方式根本轉變的動力，也是建立新的工資分配機制的必經之路。而工資分配格局的改革，是整個社會經濟改革的一個重要環節，關係著各方面利益關係的調整和變動，也關係著社會主義市場經濟的發展和現代企業制度的形成。研究工資改革的歷程、條件、矛盾、主要經驗和發展趨勢對於工資改革的繼續深入發展，全面運作目標的確定，理性思維能力的提高，都是必要的。工資改革的實踐是一個基礎，對這種實踐的認識、探索、合理引導是一項長期的任務。 中國大陸自改革開放以來，工資制度改革方興未艾。隨著國家經濟體制改革總體目標--建立社會主以市場經濟體制確立之後，工資分配制度的改革在新形勢下面臨的一個重大課題是：工資改革該如何運作？改革的目標是什麼？如何實現改革的目標？為此，改革須從以下三各思路著手：首先，要研究並確立工資制度改革的目標，即建立社會主義市場經濟條件下國有企業工資分配體制目標模式；第二，要分析並把握國有企業工資體制改革的現狀；第三，要根據工資體制改革目標模式的要求，立足於城鎮地區職工工資分配的現實基礎，積極創造有利的環境條件，採取相應措施，不斷推進工資改革，逐步實現工資改革向社會主義市場經濟條件下目標體制的過渡。 根據研究資料顯示，在中國大陸城鎮地區，由於工資制度改革提高了大部分職工的工資收入，隨著經濟改革的深化與經濟持續的成長，職工對工資收入提高的需求不斷膨脹，然而企業經營效益未能有效提高，工資的發放受到企業經營效益與工資總額限制地影響，當經濟成長到達某一個階段後，職工工資總額成長反而慢了下來。改革二十年來，經濟隨然維持著一定的增長速率，但是城鎮職工獲取工資收入的心態仍殘存著傳統平均分配的心態，無法良好適應市場機制中透過競爭與付出相對勞動量獲取勞動工資的方式。然而部分職工可以經由市場經濟體制獲得較高的工資收入，工資的差距就形成了工資攀比的來源。吃慣企業『大鍋飯』的職工們試圖在雙重經濟體制下，從工資攀比中擠佔企業留利、變相轉化福利補貼項目為個人收入，這也形成許多行政力量難以管制、且市場機能無法調節的灰色地帶或真空地帶，讓工資攀比行為有機可趁，混亂了整體的工資分配格局。 本文透過相關統計資料所作的因素分析，發現在城鎮職工工資總額構成中，基本工資對工資增長的影響力相對越來越小；另外，非工資收入的部分之比重則逐年上升，且普遍呈現平均發放的狀態。資料顯示基本工資的比重下降主要是因為基本工資增長缺乏正常增資晉級機制，加上雙重體制下的工資攀比因素，獲取非工資收入渠道增加，非工資收入對整體工資收入的構成就起著相當決定性的影響。要體現工資所具有的激勵、調節與分配等功能，主要是透過基本工資來反映職工勞動貢獻，而從分析中發現基本工資本身也存在平均發放的現象，職工工資收入並不能明顯反映勞動生產力的差異性，顯然職工並未從勞動過程中分配到應有的工資報酬。除了基本工資增長緩慢與平均發放的現象外，雙軌體制運行造成其它難以調控的分配渠道大量存在，加上企業普遍缺乏『硬預算約束』以及勞動力無法自由流動，也使得職工有機會獲取非工資收入，降低工資調節、分配的功能。 本文進一步利用基尼係數檢視中國大陸城鎮職工收入分配情況。研究發現，改革開放初期，中國大陸城鎮地區的基尼係數顯示出收入分配差距很小，在低工資的配給制度下，收入差距微乎其微，隨著改革開放的腳步向前邁進，中共國家統計局估計的基尼係數顯示城鎮地區基尼係數有緩步增加，但仍保持在合理區間，經濟成長似乎並未將收入差距擴大到不合理的狀況。然而工資收入中存在著許多難以估計的隱性收入部分，這部分收入並非單純透過基尼係數所能確實衡量反應的，由此可知，經濟改革的確拉大了收入差距，但收入差距也伴隨著平均主義共生。 工資制度在雙軌體制下進行改革，改變了職工的工資結構，而工資結構的變化進一步影響了工資分配的格局。照理說，工資制度的改革最主要的目的是為了提昇經濟效率，減輕平均主義衍生的職工惰性，但在實際情況中卻演變成薪平均主義與收入差距懸殊並存的現象。造成這種情形的主要原因在於工資分配機制尚未完全納入市場機能運作中，工資分配結構難以合理化、正常化。研究結果顯示，工資制度改革未能達到預期效果，除了內在因素外，有相當大的部分是源於外在的整體市場結構未健全化，體制改革不配套，導致工資改革措施難以落實。 健全發展與落實工資制度，工資的功能才能有效發揮，達到兼顧效率與公平的收入分配格局。就其內在因素來看，主要是要健全正常的工資增長晉級制度，減少工資分配格局中的無序現象；其次是要建立現代化企業制度，使企業能自主經營、自負盈虧。就外在因素來看，需建立國家宏觀調控機制，督導、促進企業工資分配制度完善化；工資制度盡可能完善化之後，再和整體經濟體制改革進行配套改革發展，以便順利過渡到市場經濟體制，維持持續的經濟成長。

Thesis (Ph.D. (Economics))--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2004.

<p>This study seeks to assess the level of women&rsquo / s participation and involvement in the promotion of effective governance during the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) implementation exercise in 2007, which was endorsed by the APRM Western Cape Province. The interest of the study arises from the concept of &lsquo / good governance&rsquo / and how the implementation of such a concept is carried out in the rendering of public services, specifically the role of women in rendering public service in the Western Cape Province, South Africa.</p>

L'entorn econòmic de l'Índia ha canviat significativament a partir de la seva independència de Gran Bretanya l'any 1947. Després de més de tres dècades de creixement econòmic mediocre, els 80 va marcar el començament d'una nova etapa d'altes taxes de creixement econòmic a partir de noves polítiques econòmiques més orientades a una més competitiva economia de mercat. Tot i la millora en taxes de creixement, aquest model de creixement es basava en gran mesura en un gran protagonisme per part de la despesa pública, el que va precipitar la crisi financera de 1991. Com a resultat d'aquesta crisi i l'assistència proporcionada pel FMI, es van introduir reformes desreguladores i liberalitzadores. La dècada dels 90 va ser acompanyada de taxes de creixement encara més altes que la dècada anterior. En la dècada més recent, els 2000, l'obertura estable de l'economia Índia ha permès taxes de creixement més altes que en les dècades anteriors. Desafortunadament, aquest gran creixement econòmic ha anat acompanyat amb un augment important dels nivells de desigualtat d'ingrés durant aquest mateix període, tant a nivell nacional com entre els estats que formen part de l'Índia. Aquesta tesi es concentra en l'estudi de la relació entre creixement econòmic i desigualtat de l'ingrés, tant a nivell nacional com entre els estats. Aquest projecte de recerca també inclou cobertura exhaustiva respecte a l'evolució d'altres variables macroeconòmiques als dos nivells: nacional i inter-estatal. / El entorno económico de la India ha cambiado significativamente a partir de su independencia de Gran Bretaña en el año 1947. Después de más de tres décadas de crecimiento económico mediocre, los 80 marcó el comienzo de una nueva etapa de altas tasas de crecimiento económico a partir de nuevas políticas económicas más orientadas a una más competitiva economía de mercado. A pesar de la mejora en tasas de crecimiento, dicho modelo de crecimiento se basaba en gran medida en un gran protagonismo por parte del gasto público, lo que precipitó la crisis financiera de 1991. Como resultado de dicha crisis, y la asistencia proporcionada por el FMI se introdujeron reformas desreguladoras y liberalizadoras. La década de los 90 fue acompañada de tasas de crecimiento aún más altas que la década anterior. En la década más reciente, los 2000, la apertura estable de la economía India ha permitido tasas de crecimiento más altas que en las décadas anteriores. Desafortunadamente, este gran crecimiento económico ha ido acompañado con un aumento importante de los niveles de desigualdad de ingreso durante este mismo periodo, tanto a nivel nacional como entre los estados que forman parte de la India. Esta tesis se concentra en el estudio de la relación entre crecimiento económico y desigualdad del ingreso, tanto a nivel nacional como entre los estados. Dicho proyecto de investigación también incluye cobertura exhaustiva con respecto a la evolución de otras variables macroeconómicas a los dos niveles: nacional e inter-estatal. / India’s economic climate has experienced significant change since its independence from Great Britain in 1947. After more than three decades of mediocre economic growth, the 1980s ushered in a new era of accelerated growth rates by way of promoting a more efficient pro-business model. Despite the improvement in growth rates, the 1980s were fueled by over zealous public spending, precipitating the well-known financial crisis in 1991. As a result of the crisis, and the IMF supplied aid contingent on the introduction of gradual deregulatory reforms of the Indian economy, the 1990s brought about even greater economic growth rates than the previous decade. Into the 2000s, India’s continued and steady opening has afforded even further acceleration in growth rates. Despite these positive developments in the Indian economy, the unfortunate truth is that income inequality has likewise been increasing over this same period, most notably across the states. This dissertation endeavors to apply the established macroeconomic field dedicated to the study of income inequality’s effect on economic growth to the case of India, both at the national level and even more critically at the state level. Our research also includes exhaustive coverage regarding the evolution of other relevant macroeconomic variables across states, as well as nationally.