Over the past decade of accounting and finance research, the Ohlson (1995) model has been widely adopted as a framework for stock price prediction. While using the accounting data of 391 companies from SP500 in this paper, Bayesian statistical techniques are adopted to enhance both the estimative and predictive qualities of the Ohlson model comparing to the classical approaches. Specifically, the classical methods are used for the exploratory data analysis and then the Bayesian strategies are applied using Markov chain Monte Carlo method in three stages: individual analysis for each company, grouping analysis for each group and adaptive analysis by pooling information across companies. The base data, which consist of 20 quarters' observations starting from the first quarter of 1998, are used to make inferences for the regression coefficients (or parameters), evaluate the model adequacy and predict the stock price for the first quarter of 2004, when the real observations are set as the test data to evaluate the predictive ability of the Ohlson model. The results are averaged within each specified group categorized via the general industrial classification (GIC). The empirical results show that classical models result in larger stock price prediction errors, more positively-biased predictions and have much smaller explanatory powers than Bayesian models. A few transformations of both classical and Bayesian models are also performed in this paper, however, transformations of the classical models do not outweigh the usefulness of applying Bayesian statistics.

Numerous value relevance investigations use the Ohlson (1995) model to empirically explore the value relevance of accounting variables such as earnings and goodwill amortisation by employing equity price as the dependent variable, but do not incorporate the most recent prior period’s equity price as an additional explanatory variable. The Ohlson (1995) model and the efficient market literature indicate that, since share prices represent the present value of future permanent earnings in an efficient market, the most recent prior period’s equity price should be a crucial variable for explaining the current price in value relevance models. This thesis therefore outlines how the Ohlson (1995) model incorporates the most recent prior period’s price as a potentially important value relevant explanatory variable, and reformulates the Ohlson (1995) model to demonstrate how the empirical specification of value relevance regression models can be greatly improved by including the most recent prior period’s price as an additional explanatory variable. We revisit the Jennings, LeClere, and Thompson (2001) empirical specification used to study whether goodwill amortisation is value relevant and potentially informative with respect to future earnings to illustrate the improvement to the Ohlson (1995) value relevance model empirical specification. When the model specification is improved by including the most recent prior period’s price as an additional explanatory variable, trailing earnings are shown, using time series, cross-sectional, and returns-based analysis, to be at best marginally value relevant when empirically explaining share prices in value relevance regression models. The thesis also indicates that goodwill amortisation should not be deducted from earnings in accounting statements because the presence of goodwill amortisation is significantly positively (not negatively) related to equity prices. This effect is eliminated when the most recent prior period’s price is included as an additional explanatory variable in the regression analysis, thus indicating that goodwill amortisation information as well as trailing earnings information have already been incorporated into the most recent prior period’s price. The thesis further indicates that value relevance studies that use the Ohlson (1995) model should use, for econometric reasons, change in price or else returns, not the price level, as the dependent variable. When returns are used to test the value relevance of goodwill amortisation, firms that report positive goodwill amortization actually have higher subsequent returns, a result that could possibly be due to the fact that growing firms tend to possess goodwill when they use acquisitions to expand. Results obtained when using returns to test whether goodwill amortisation is value relevant therefore extend the existing literature, since the prevailing expectation in the accounting literature is that goodwill amortization either represents a reduction in the value of goodwill over time or is not value relevant.

恩隆（Enron）等管理當局舞弊案，是資訊不對稱所造成。為減少資訊不對稱之問題，各國對公司資訊揭露之範圍與內容規範甚多，沙氏法案（Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002）對公司財務揭露之要求即為例證，惟資訊不對稱之情形在資本市場中仍然很嚴重。 本文探討在市場資訊不對稱之情形下，投資人做投資決策時，是否考量公司資訊揭露之程度。本研究以Ohlson (1995)、Barth (1998)、Sloan (1996)及Fama and French (1992, 1995)作為理論基礎建構模型，探討資訊揭露程度對公司價值之影響。具體而言，本研究將揭露程度分為：「財務與營運」、「董事會及股權結構」及「公司網站」三類，針對傳統產業公司之資訊揭露程度與股價、權益市值及股票報酬等三類公司價值之關係進行實證研究。 實證結果發現，除了會計資訊對公司價值具有攸關性外，公司整體資訊揭露程度對公司之價值亦有顯著之正向影響。其中，「財務與營運」的揭露程度對三類公司價值均具有顯著的正向關係，「董事會及股權結構」的揭露程度對股價與權益市值具有顯著之正向關係，「公司網站」的揭露程度則與各公司價值間皆僅為正向但不顯著之關係。 / Information asymmetry may cause serious business fraud like Enron case. Countries around the word devote much effort enforcing regulation on the disclosure financial information, such as the requirements of Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 in the USA. Based on Ohlson (1995), Barth (1998), Sloan (1996), and Fama and French (1995), this study investigates the market reaction to the financial information disclosure. The disclosure of financial information is decomposed into three categories including financial and operating disclosure, board and ownership structure disclosure, and website disclosure. How the stock price, market value and stock return are related to these financial disclosures is examined. As the results show, in addition to the fact that the accounting information is value relevant, the comprehensive financial disclosure has significantly positive effect on stock price, market value, and stock return, as the financial and operating disclosure does. However, the disclosure of board and ownership structure has significant positive effect only on both stock price and market value, but the market does not have significant reaction to the financial disclosure on website.

Yes / This paper uses panel cointegration with a corresponding vector error correction model (VECM) to investigate the changes in the value relevance of accounting information before and after the mandatory adoption of IFRS in Germany and the UK under three different valuation models. First, a basic Ohlson model, where our results indicate that despite the value relevance of the book values of equity has declined, it has been replaced by the increasing prominence of earnings in both Germany and the UK after the switch to the IFRS. Second, a modified model, which shows that the incremental value relevance of both earnings and book values are considerably higher in the long term for firms in the UK than in Germany. Third, a simultaneous addition of accounting and macroeconomic variables in an extended model, which indicates a significant rise in the relative predictive power of the book value of equity in the UK compared with the more noticeable impact on the value relevance of earnings in Germany. Collectively, the results of these models indicate that: (i) the explanatory power of linear equity valuation models is higher in UK than in the Germany, (ii) a long-run Granger-causal relationship exists between accounting variables and share prices in common law countries like the UK. Nevertheless, the implications of our findings lie in the knowledge that the potential costs of switching to the IFRS is completely nullified within three years by the benefits arising from a reduction in information asymmetry and earning mismanagement among firms which are listed on the stock exchanges of both common law and code law-based EU countries.

本篇論文以分析師對未來公司盈餘預測為基礎，使用剩餘所得模型來對台灣股票市場做實證研究。在這個架構下，我們比較了剩餘所得模型評價法與各種不同的傳統評價法對台灣50成分股的估算表現。 本篇論文的實證發現，內含價值對股票價格比率(intrinsic value to price ratio)對台灣50成分股的預測，在中短期的投資期間內相較於傳統評價法，預測力最高。帳面價值對股票價格比率(book value to price ratio)則在長期的投資期間內，預測力顯著高於其他評價法。盈餘對價格比率(earnings to price ratio)預測力最低。而將所有評價法一同列入考慮時，則發現並沒有任何一種評價法能明顯主宰其他不同的評價法，各種評價方法在預測未來股市表現是互補的。 本篇論文進一步探討剩餘所得模型評價法對台灣50成分股的交易策略，發現以剩餘所得模型估算出的內含價值為標準來進行交易，能得到正報酬。而考慮會計保守原則的模型報酬率能顯著高於沒有將會計保守原則列入考慮的模型。 / We provide an empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model bases on analysts’ forecast data in Taiwan stock market. In this framework, we compare the performance of alternative estimates of intrinsic value with traditional valuation estimates for the component stocks of TSEC Taiwan 50 Index. According to our results, intrinsic value-to-price ratio is a reliable predictor of market returns over short-to-mid period and book-to-price ratios is a reliable predictor over long horizons. Unlike the two ratios, earnings-to-price ratio has little predictive power for returns in Taiwan stock market. Furthermore, intrinsic value-to-price ratio does not dominate traditional valuation but provide another perspective of stock valuation, and we can have a better forecast of future return of Taiwan stock market with consideration of all valuation estimates.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-05T19:13:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 18 / Nenhuma / A proposta deste estudo é testar empiricamente se o modelo de avaliação da firma proposto por Ohlson, em 1995, produz estimativas adequadas para os dados das principais empresas brasileiras listadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Bovespa) no período de 2002 a 2005. Destaca-se que a aplicação empírica de todas as premissas desse modelo ainda é relativamente escassa e controversa para mercados emergentes. Foram testadas as funções de preço e retorno de Ohlson (1995), cada qual com diferentes especificações, de acordo com os resultados obtidos para os parâmetros de persistência do resultado anormal e da variável "outra informação". Dessa forma, o presente estudo adotou duas metodologias para estimar empiricamente as funções descritas, as quais divergem fundamentalmente quanto ao tratamento de dados aplicado, dadas às limitações inerentes ao tamanho da amostra utilizada. A primeira metodologia desenvolvida estritamente conforme os pressupostos teóricos de Ohlson (1995) consistiu em testar o modelo através de u / This study aims at empirically testing whether the equity valuation model as proposed by Ohlson in 1995 fits the data from the major Brazilian companies listed on Sao Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa), in the period 2002-2005. It has been highlighted that the empirical application of all the premises of this model is still relatively rare and controvert for emerging markets. Ohlson’s (1995) price and return functions have been tested, each with different specifications, according to the results obtained for the persistence parameters of both the abnormal earnings and the “other information” variable. Thus, the present study has adopted two methodologies to empirically estimate the functions mentioned above, which fundamentally diverge as to the data treatment applied, given the limitations inherent to the size of the sample used. The first methodology strictly developed according to the theoretical assumptions of Ohlson (1995) was testing the model through a cross section cut-off analysis for a 53-stock panel

本研究以我國上市（櫃）公司89年至92年財務報表資訊及營利事業所得稅申報資料進行實證研究，探討造成我國財務會計所得與課稅所得差異之原因及財稅差異與企業評價之關係。在探討造成財稅差異原因方面，實證結果顯示除折舊費用未達統計上顯著水準外，呆帳費用、投資損失、存貨跌價損失及負債比率與財稅差異呈顯著負向關係，而投資利得、證券期貨交易所得、出售土地增益、企業規模、資產報酬率、電子業及營建業與財稅差異呈顯著正向關係。在探討財稅差異與企業評價之關係方面，本文援用Ohlson模型進行分析，結果發現財稅差異殘差項與股價呈正向關係，顯示投資人視未預期之財稅差異可能具有傳遞未來樂觀之財務會計所得或可節省稅負支出之租稅利益等資訊意涵因而反應於股價之上。依據實證結果，本文發現獲利能力越好或規模越大的公司越有可能透過租稅規劃，減少租稅上之負擔，此發現可作為稅務主管機關未來選案之參考；又本文也發現財稅差異具有資訊意涵，然現今財務報表揭露所得稅相關資訊有限，因此本研究建議證券主管機關應適度加強企業所得稅相關資訊之揭露與規範。 / Using 2000 to 2003 financial statement data and tax return data of listed and OTC companies in Taiwan, this study explores the sources of difference between tax income and financial reporting income and the relationships between book-tax differences and business valuation. The empirical results show that except for depreciation expense, bed debt expense, losses on investments, loss due to market decline of inventory, and financial leverage are negatively related with book-tax differences. However gains on investments, gains on securities transactions, gains in land transactions, business size, return on assets, the electronics industry, and the building industry are positively related with book-tax differences. The results also show that the regression residuals of book-tax differences are positively related with stock prices. This means that investors regard unexplained residuals as future earnings or income tax savings which are then reflected on the stock prices. The empirical results indicate that firms with greater profitability or large firms have greater incentives to conduct tax-planning which tend to reduce taxable income relative to income for financial reporting purposes. Our findings provide evidence for the Taxation Agency when doing audit adjustments and lend support for book-tax differences contain information that is relevant to firms’ valuation. However, in practice disclosure of information about income tax in financial statements is still limited, thus restricting investors in estimating book-tax differences. The security authority should devise appropriate accounting policies to improve disclosures on firms’ income tax information.

本研究以Ohlson (1995) model為發展基礎，並將盈餘定義為（１）剩餘淨利及（２）盈餘水準，分別就此二種不同定義下的盈餘，以年度盈餘時間序列來測試其是否符合線性資訊動態假設，及針對各模式對股權價值估計與預測之結果做比較，探討何種評價方法或模式對於估計真實價值、解釋價格及預測報酬之效果較佳。 研究結果發現，我國上市公司之剩餘淨利及盈餘水準時間序列皆符合線性資訊動態假說。剩餘淨利線性資訊動態模型較能正確預估次一期的盈餘。相較於單獨以帳面價值來估計股價，考慮線性資訊動態模型所建立之各評價模型所預測之估計股價皆未能正確預測權益價值及解釋權益價值之波動。在投資策略方面，因剩餘淨利模型之投資績效最為穩定，在該模型之投資策略下，V/P比率愈低（高）之投資組合獲得之平均股票報酬愈低（高），代表股價愈是被低估的投資組合可賺取更多之投資報酬，這說明剩餘淨利模型預測次期投資報酬之能力最佳，投資人可以其做為建立投資策略的參考。 / Based on Ohlson (1995) model, this study specifies earnings variables as both residual income and earnings levels to test the linear information dynamic (LID) models per se and the ability of competing valuation models to value the contemporaneous stock prices. A comparison of future stock return predicting capability of competing models is also conducted. By using both residual income time series and earnings levels time series for examining the issue on the firms listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE), the empirical results support Ohlson’s information dynamics. However, when estimated as a time series, the linear information models using either residual income or earnings levels variables provide value estimates no better than book value does alone. From the investment strategy aspect, the superior predictive ability of the residual income valuation model with respect to future stock returns demonstrates that high (low) V/P ratios gets high (low) investment returns. It implies that the underpriced portfolio makes high investment returns. Accordingly, the residual income valuation is good for estimating returns on the following year and is therefore a valuable investment reference..

智慧資本研究可分為策略流派（strategic stream）與評量流派（measurement stream）。前者主要研究如何創造與運用智慧資本，以及探討智慧資本與價值創造的關係；後者著重如何對智慧資本進行衡量。 　　本研究依評量流派之觀點，以民國91年度資訊電子業上市公司為樣本，探討智慧資本資訊對於企業價值的影響。本文採用內容分析法對各樣本公司進行揭露程度評比，採用Ohslon (1995)模型進行實證研究，結果顯示智慧資本之資訊揭露與企業價值攸關，揭露程度與公司價值成正向關係。就分項智慧資本而言，流程資本以及關係資本之揭露程度與公司價值有顯著關係；然而，人力資本與創新資本的揭露程度與公司價值之關係均不顯著。 / The research in intellectual capital (IC) can be divided into two streams focusing on strategic aspect and measurement aspect, respectively. The former stream investigates how to create and use IC and concentrates on the relation between IC and the value creation. On the other hand, the measurement stream is more concerned with the IC reporting and measurement. 　　Basing on the view of measurement stream, this study selects 177 listed companies in Taiwan electronic industry in 2002 as a sample and investigates the effect of IC information on firm value. By using content analysis method to score the degree of IC disclosure for each sample firm, the empirical result shows that the comprehensive disclosure of IC has significant and positive effect on firm value. When we further look into the decomposition of IC disclosure, both relation capital and process capital are found to have positive and significant effect on firm value while the human capital and innovation capital do not have such a significant relationship.

在知識經濟時代中，企業的核心競爭價值已由過去以勞力、廠房及資本等有形資產為基礎，轉變至以智慧資本驅動為核心。然而，受限於會計準則對於智慧資本認列及評價規定之缺乏，僅以財務、實體資產衡量企業價值已不足以反映企業的真實價值。因此，本研究以人力、創新、流程及顧客資本等四大構面，選擇攸關價值因子之替代變數，從投入及產出觀點探討這些價值因子及價值因子間之相互效果對於企業價值的創造是否具有正向關係。 本研究根據Ohlson（1995）的評價模型作為理論架構，以2000年至2002年間台灣上市公司為研究對象，選擇以員工相對教育程度、專利權件數、資產週轉率及顧客留存率等作為智慧資本價值因子，並採用複迴歸方式從事當期及遞延一期之實證模型分析。 實證結果顯示，就智慧資本價值因子而言，員工相對教育程度、專利權件數及資產週轉率均與企業當期及遞延一期之市場價值具有顯著正向關係，惟專利權件數的遞延效益並不穩定。就價值因子間之相互作用而言，人力資本與創新、流程及顧客資本間及創新資本與顧客資本間所產生之綜效，與企業價值間具有正向關係，然而僅人力與創新資本間之綜效具有明顯之持續性。此外，創新與流程資本間之綜效，對於企業價值之創造則具有落後現象。 根據實證結果，本研究建議企業從事知識管理活動時，除應瞭解各項智慧資本對企業核心價值之貢獻外，並應重視智慧資本價值因子間之相互效果，俾利結合企業的經營策略，提昇其市場價值。 關鍵字：智慧資本、Ohlson模型、企業價值、相互效果 / In the era of knowledge economy, firm’s core competitiveness has changed from tangible assets which include labor, factory buildings and capital to the intellectual capital value-drivers. However, the lack of accounting standards of recognition and valuation of intellectual capital results in failing to reflect the firm’s intrinsic value. Therefore, this study uses dimensions of human capital, innovation capital, process capital and customer capital to select the alternative variables of relevant value factors and to examine the relationships between intellectual capital value factors, inter-effects in those value factors and firm’s market value from an input-output viewpoint. The framework of this study is based on Ohlson（1995）valuation model, and the samples of this study is the listed public companies in Taiwan during 2000 to 2002. This study uses relative education degree of employees, patents, assets turnover rate and customer retention ratio as the intellectual capital value factors, and adopts multiple regression methods to build the current and lagged one period empirical analysis models. As the intellectual capital value factors, the results show that relative education degree of employees, patents and assets turnover rate have significant positive effect on firm’s market value under current and lagged one period model. But lagged effect of patents is not stable. As the inter-effects of value factors, the results show that there are significant positive relationships between the synergies of human-innovation, human-process, human-customer, innovation-customer capital and the firm’s market value, but only human-innovation capital has a remarkable persistence. Furthermore, the synergy of innovation-process capital has a lagged effect on the firm value creation. According to the result, this study suggests that company should not only understand the contributions of every intellectual capital value factor to its core value, but also pay more attention to their inter-effects for integration of the firm’s operation strategies and increasing market value. Key words：Intellectual capital, Ohlson model, firm value, inter-effects