Trade Integration between China and ASEAN, which is behind North American Free Trade Agreement and European Union. It will become the third largest economy in the world. The prupose of this study tries to look for ¡§substantial¡¨ strategies and methods of China-ASEAN free trade area between China and ASEAN. In the conclusion, this study discovers China-ASEAN free trade area is an important tool for China, because of China could use it achieving regional stability, resource strategies, South-West development, and connection of East Asia integration. In process of trade integration, China not only adds trade and investment in Southeast Asia, but also provides economic assistance and joins ASEAN plus one. To came to China¡¦s WinWin pruposes.

In this paper, we first proposed the regional physical capital, and the regional physical capital of the importance of risk sharing. The ten countries of East Asia face the risk into international capital markets, regional physical capital, and international trade of these three risk sharing channels, and use of GDP variance decomposition method to measure the three channels risk sharing situation. The empirical results show that¡G1.East Asia regional physical capital to absorb the impact of GDP for very large. 2.International capital markets played a very small role. 3.The increasing integration of the international trade market will reduce the risk sharing. 4.The East Asian region can not spread the risks as high as 80%, but this phenomenon after the Asian financial crisis has gradually reduced its risk can not be assessed, there have been similar OECD countries only 60% of the standard. This study also explains the international trade market will result in reducing the risk of trade of the reasons for risk sharing: 1. Importers and exporters through the credit agreement will be the number of commodity prices and the sale and purchase agreement has been through pre-determined, so risk can not be assessed the situation. 2. Trade flows do not contribute to cross-country consumption smoothing, is that central bank attempt to neutralize the impact of foreign capital inflows on domestic credit market.

Cette thèse entend revisiter la question des interactions entre les dimensions commerciale et monétaire desprocessus d’intégration régionale à travers l’étude du cas océanien. Habituellement en retrait du champ d’étude del’économie internationale, le continent océanien se trouve pourtant au coeur de la problématique de l’inscription despetites économies insulaires dans l’économie mondiale via des processus régionaux et constitue un terrain d’étudesprivilégié sur la question du séquençage entre intégration monétaire et intégration commerciale. La démarche envisagéedans cette thèse procède de l’économie appliquée et mobilise différentes méthodologies (économétrie de panel, modèlesqualitatifs multinomiaux, équations gravitaires) pour apporter un éclairage original sur les différentes dimensions duprocessus d’intégration dans la zone et sur l’articulation entre ses versants monétaire et réel. Trois résultats principauxse dégagent de ce travail. Tout d’abord, l’évaluation de la dynamique d’intégration réelle à l’oeuvre met en évidencel’impact positif des accords commerciaux intra-régionaux sur les flux d’échange entre les pays membres et sur lesexportations à destination des pays non membres. À travers l’établissement d’une cartographie originale des relationscambiaires dans la zone, l’analyse met ensuite à jour l’influence d’une dépendance au sentier sur les choix d’ancrage et laprépondérance des déterminants historiques. Troisièmement, le croisement de ces résultats invite à relativiser l’impactd’une modification de l’architecture cambiaire sur les flux commerciaux intra-zone. Le poids de l’histoire se dégage toutd’abord des équations gravitaires à travers des effets d’interaction entre influence de l’ascendance coloniale communeet impact de la fixité des taux de change bilatéraux ; une analyse prospective conduit enfin à privilégier un scénariod’ancrage des monnaies océaniennes vis-à-vis du dollar australien, tout en soulignant les effets asymétriques d’un telschéma d’intégration monétaire sur les flux commerciaux intra-zone. / The purpose of this dissertation is to shed new light on the interactions between trade integration andmonetary integration, using the Oceanian region as a case study. The Oceanian continent has not enjoyed excessiveattention amongst researchers in international economics. And yet, the region offers a striking illustration of themechanisms through which small island economies interact with the global economy, via complex regional processes.As such, it constitutes an excellent research field for the question of the sequencing between monetary integration andtrade integration. The approach adopted in this thesis is steeped in applied economics, and uses various methodologies(panel econometrics, multinomial discrete choice models, gravity equations) to bring a fresh perspective on the variousdimensions of the regional integration process, and on the interactions between the monetary and trade components ofthat process. The study yields three key conclusions. Firstly, the study assesses the actual integration dynamics at work,and concludes that there is a positive impact of intra-regional trade agreements, both on trade flows between membercountries and on exports to non-member countries. Secondly, the study creates a new mapping of exchange rate regimesin the region, and uses it to identify a path dependency between anchoring choices and historical determinations. Thirdly,the models analyzed suggest that the impact of common currency arrangements on intra-regional trade flows should notbe over-estimated. Rather, a closer look at the gravity equations describing the interaction between common colonialascendency and common currency arrangements suggests that history is the over-riding factor. Finally, a prospectiveanalysis leads to consider anchoring to the australian dollar as a possible option, while noting the asymmetrical impactof such an integration scheme on intra-regional trade flows.

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-12-12T13:54:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafaela Lauffer Ostermann Tamiosso_.pdf: 1442173 bytes, checksum: 6b4e384ffad7bba170e30016439c0cd7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-12T13:54:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafaela Lauffer Ostermann Tamiosso_.pdf: 1442173 bytes, checksum: 6b4e384ffad7bba170e30016439c0cd7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-07-30 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O objetivo do estudo é analisar o perfil e as oportunidades de comércio do Brasil com os países integrantes do BRICS, do TICKS e do MINT, por meio de simulações de integração comercial, buscando identificar os setores mais beneficiados de acordo com seu grau de intensidade tecnológica. A metodologia utilizada foi a revisão bibliográfica e a coleta de informações na base de dados AliceWeb/SECEX/MDIC, empregando-se a classificação de produtos por grau de intensidade tecnológica segundo os critérios da OCDE. Além dessas, foi utilizado o modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, mediante utilização do GTAP (versão 9). Foram realizadas seis simulações, entre o Brasil e os países do BRICS, do TICKS e do MINT, com reduções de 50% e de 100% das tarifas de importações para cada um dos acordos. Em todos os acordos simulados, o setor mais impactado seria o de baixa intensidade tecnológica, já que era o mais protegido inicialmente. Os resultados revelaram que existiria substituição da produção doméstica pelas importações mais baratas dos países do BRICS, do TICKS e do MINT, ocasionando crescimento nas exportações brasileiras de produtos primários e de baixa intensidade tecnológica e queda das exportações de produtos de média-alta e de alta intensidade tecnológica. Em relação aos efeitos sobre o bem-estar, os acordos de comércio apontam ganhos para o Brasil em todos os cenários, porém aquele envolvendo os países do TICKS, com ampla redução tarifária, seria o que mais beneficiaria o Brasil, com ganhos de US$ 4,8 bilhões, sendo também o acordo com maior benefício líquido para o mundo, no valor de US$ 23,9 bilhões. / The study goal is to analyze the profile and trading opportunities with the BRICS, TICKS, and MINT countries through trade integrations simulations — looking for patterns to identify the most benefited sectors by their technological intensity degree. The methodology used was the bibliography review and the data collecting on AliceWeb/SECEX/MDIC, using the products classification by technological intensity degree according to OCDE criteria. In addition, the computable general equilibrium model was applied with GTAP (version 9). Six simulations were performed between Brazil and the BRICS, TICKS and MINT countries, with 50% and 100% importation tax reductions for each trade agreement. Analysing all trade agreements simulations, the most impacted sector would be that of low technological intensity because it was the most protected at the initial equilibrium. The results show that would be a replacement of Brazilian domestic production to low-cost imports from BRICS, TICKS, and MINT countries, leading to Brazilian exporting growth of primary and low technological intensity products, and an export dropping of products with medium-high and high-end technological intensity. Also, the trade agreements would generate welfare gains for Brazil in all scenarios, however that one related to the TICKS countries, with a large tax reduction, would be the most beneficial for Brazil, with gains of US$ 4.8 billion, also being the agreement with the largest net benefit to the world, reaching US$ 23.9 billion.

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-03-28T16:33:04Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Jurandir Luiz Buchmann_.pdf: 472488 bytes, checksum: f0128dcf057ad2245a14aba0c7298afd (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-28T16:33:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jurandir Luiz Buchmann_.pdf: 472488 bytes, checksum: f0128dcf057ad2245a14aba0c7298afd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-21 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O objetivo do estudo é analisar as oportunidades de comércio a partir da simulação de uma possível integração comercial do Brasil com a China, com os EUA e com a UE, buscando identificar os setores mais beneficiados pelo eventual acordo, classificados de acordo com seu grau de intensidade tecnológica, com ênfase no agronegócio brasileiro e, em especial, no setor de produtos florestais. Empregou-se a classificação de produtos por grau de intensidade tecnológica segundo os critérios da Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE) e foi utilizado o modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, mediante uso da base de dados Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), versão 9, para simular os impactos sobre o comércio internacional e os efeitos sobre o bem-estar de uma possível integração comercial do Brasil com os parceiros selecionados. Por fim, os resultados obtidos mostram que os ganhos de bem-estar para o Brasil, em todos os acordos, estão principalmente vinculados a melhor alocação dos seus recursos produtivos, que estariam concentrados basicamente nos setores primários e de baixa intensidade tecnológica, que agregaria o agronegócio e, em especial, o setor florestal. / The objective of the study is to analyze trade opportunities by simulating a possible trade integration between Brazil and China, with the US and with the EU, seeking to identify the sectors most benefited by the eventual agreement, classified according to their degree of technological intensity, with emphasis on Brazilian agribusiness and, in particular, on the forest products sector. The classification of products by level of technological intensity according to the criteria of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) was used and the computable general equilibrium model was used, using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, version 9, to simulate the impacts on international trade and the welfare effects of a possible trade integration of Brazil with selected partners. Finally, the results show that welfare gains for Brazil, in all agreements, are mainly related to the better allocation of its productive resources, which would be basically concentrated in the primary sectors and of low technological intensity, which would add the agribusiness and, in particular, the forestry sector.

Submitted by Geandra Rodrigues (geandrar@gmail.com) on 2018-01-24T17:15:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 viniciusdealmeidavale.pdf: 2963209 bytes, checksum: 9056e257d48e1221adeedef0fddb506a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-01-25T10:39:34Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 viniciusdealmeidavale.pdf: 2963209 bytes, checksum: 9056e257d48e1221adeedef0fddb506a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-25T10:39:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 viniciusdealmeidavale.pdf: 2963209 bytes, checksum: 9056e257d48e1221adeedef0fddb506a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-01-17 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O objetivo principal desta Tese é avaliar os efeitos da integração comercial do Brasil com a União Europeia e com os Estados Unidos. Com o intuito de complementar estudos semelhantes, este trabalho propõe avaliar, além dos efeitos sobre indicadores macroeconômicos e setoriais, os efeitos sobre a estrutura de renda de dez famílias representativas brasileiras. Além disso, tendo em vista a discussão voltada para o potencial das atividades agrícolas e afins, tem-se como objetivos específicos: discutir o papel da agricultura para o processo de desenvolvimento econômico e apresentar o panorama recente do setor e sua inserção no comércio internacional. Para análise empírica, utiliza-se um modelo global-nacional integrado de Equilíbrio Geral Computável (EGC), o modelo BR-TAM (Brazilian Trade Analysis Model). Esse modelo é calibrado a partir da utilização e integração de dois outros modelos de EGC, o modelo global GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) e o nacional ORANIG-BR (Single-Country Computable General Equilibrium Model of the Brazilian Economy). O modelo BR-TAM considera tanto as relações de comércio entre as regiões quanto os encadeamentos produtivos setoriais da economia brasileira. Além disso, o mesmo mapeia a geração e apropriação da renda, bem como o seu uso, por meio da extensão no módulo nacional que incorpora as múltiplas famílias e fluxos de renda da Matriz de Contabilidade Social (MCS) estimada nesta Tese a partir de dados preliminares da Matriz de Insumo-Produto (MIP) do Brasil para 2011 do Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS), das Contas Econômicas Integradas (CEI) e da Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares (POF) do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Os efeitos dos dois cenários de integração, embora apresentem algumas semelhanças, apontam, em geral, para diferentes trade-offs em relação ao nível de atividade, emprego e produção setorial. Diferentes atividades são potencializadas em cada um deles. Além disso, pressões distintas são exercidas sobre a estrutura de renda e, consequentemente, sobre a desigualdade e concentração de renda no Brasil. Dessa maneira, este trabalho contribui para a literatura e agenda de comércio por trazer um estudo prospectivo capaz de orientar as estratégias de integração de curto e médio prazo, tendo em vista a discussão dos potenciais efeitos sobre variáveis macroeconômicas, setoriais e estrutura de renda das famílias heterogêneas no Brasil. / The main objective of this Thesis is to evaluate the effects of Brazil's trade integration with the European Union and the United States. In order to complement similar studies, this research proposes, besides to the effects on macroeconomic and sectoral indicators, an evaluation of the effects on the income structure of ten representative households in Brazil. In addition, considering the focus on agricultural and related activities potential, this study has as specific objectives discussing the role of agriculture in economic development and presenting the recent overview of the sector and its insertion in international trade. For empirical analysis, we use a global-national integrated Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the BR-TAM (Brazilian Trade Analysis Model). This model is calibrated based on the use and integration of two other CGE models, the global model – GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) and the national one – ORANIG-BR (Computable General Equilibrium Model of a Single Country of the Brazilian Economy). The BR-TAM model considers the trade relations among the regions and the sectoral linkages of the Brazilian economy. In addition, it maps the generation and appropriation of income, as well as its use, by the extension in the national module that incorporates multiple households and income flows from the Social Accounting Matrix (MCS) estimated based on preliminary data from the Input-Output Matrix (MIP) for 2011 of The University of Sao Paulo Regional and Urban Economics Lab (NEREUS), from the Integrated Economic Accounts (CEI) and from the Household Budgets Survey (POF) of Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects of the two integration scenarios, although presenting some similarities, generally point to diverse trade-offs in relation to activity level, employment, and sectoral production. Different activities are potentiated in each of them. Moreover, different pressures are exerted on the income structure and, consequently, on Brazilian income inequality and concentration. In this way, this study contributes to the literature and trade agenda through a prospective study able to orient a short and medium-term integration strategy, since it brings some potential effects on macroeconomic and sectoral variables, and on income structure of heterogeneous household in Brazil.

AL’objectif de cette thèse est de tester la corrélation des cycles économiques entre les pays développés et les pays émergents, et de déterminer, en outre, l’importance relative des mécanismes causaux de la synchronisation/désynchronisation cyclique entre ces deux groupes de pays. Il s’agit notamment d’examiner comment les phases cycliques qui secouent les pays avancés se transmettent aux pays émergents. En étudiant les relations économiques entre les pays avancés et les pays émergents, nos résultats montrent qu’il existe une synchronisation cyclique entre les deux groupes de pays, mais aussi, en même temps, un découplage partiel des cycles conjoncturels entre un nombre limité de ces deux groupes de pays, notamment l’Inde et la Chine. Les circuits commerciaux et les canaux financiers sont les déterminants principaux de la synchronisation cyclique entre les pays développés et les pays émergents, en tenant compte d’une importance relative des facteurs financiers. Ce résultat nous a amené à analyser plus en profondeur les aspects financiers. Ainsi, on a étudié, en premier lieu, l’indice des turbulences financières. On observe qu’il existe une forte corrélation entre les troubles financiers des pays avancés et ceux des pays émergents. On a également testé, en second lieu, la synchronisation cyclique sous les différents régimes de change. On constate que les économies émergentes qui adoptent un régime de change intermédiaire sont les plus synchronisées, parce qu’il existe un lien entre corrélation cyclique et comportement des réserves de change. Ces dernières arrivent à leur pic dans un régime de change intermédiaire, ce qui est probablement dû aux relations intenses avec l’Europe et les Etats-Unis qui atteignent leur plus haut niveau sous un système intermédiaire de changes / The aim of this thesis is to analyze business cycles correlation between developed and emerging countries, and to determine the relative importance of causal mechanisms of synchronization/desynchronization between these two groups of countries. The business cycles across countries: divergence or convergence? How cyclical phases that shake the developed countries are transmitted to emerging countries ? By examining the economic relations between advanced and emerging countries, our results show that there is business cycles synchronization between the two groups of countries, but also at the same time, a partial decoupling of business cycles between a limited number of these two groups of countries, particularly India and China. Trade integration and financial channels are the main determinants of cyclical synchronization between developed countries and emerging economies, with a relative importance of the financial factors. This result led us to analyze, further, the financial aspects. Thus, we studied in the first place, the financial stress index. It is observed that there is a strong correlation between financial turmoil of developed countries and emerging countries. It was tested, in the second place, the cyclical synchronization under different exchange rate regimes. It appears that emerging economies that adopt an intermediate exchange rate regime are more synchronized because there is a link between their cyclical correlation and their international reserves behavior. These arrive at their peak under an intermediate exchange rate regime, probably due to the intense relations with Europe and the United States, which reach their highest level under an intermediate exchange rate system.

We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on intraday exchange rates of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes. Currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the US depreciate if the election probability of the protectionist candidate increases during the debate. We rationalize our results in a model where a debate victory of a protectionist candidate raises expectations about future tariffs and reduces future net exports to the US, resulting in relative depreciation of currencies with high bilateral trade integration.

Le début du XXI siècle a été marqué par deux épisodes de flambées des prix des produits alimentaires au niveau mondial, respectivement en 2007-08 et 2010-11. Ces hausses de prix ont aggravé le niveau d’insécurité alimentaire dans de nombreux pays en développement et ont engendré des manifestations et troubles sociaux dans certains pays. Déterminer les facteurs qui contribuent à accroitre le risque d’insécurité alimentaire et comprendre les mécanismes qui sous-tendent l’éclatement d’une crise alimentaire pourraient permettre d’améliorer l’efficacité des politiques de prévention. Cette thèse contribue à cet objectif. Le chapitre 2 estime les différentes composantes de la variabilité de la disponibilité alimentaire en utilisant les données désagrégées des bilans alimentaires. Nos résultats suggèrent que plus de la moitié de la variabilité de la disponibilité alimentaire d’un pays dépend de chocs propres au pays. Les chocs globaux représentent environ 1% de la variabilité totale.Le chapitre 3 montre que l’impact du commerce international sur la variabilité de la disponibilité alimentaire dépend du portefeuille d’accords commerciaux détenu par le pays. Le chapitre 4 utilise le cadre théorique des paniques bancaires et s’appuie sur des travaux portant sur le risque perçu et sur les biais cognitifs pour modéliser le comportement d’achat alimentaire du consommateur. Nous montrons comment l’amplification sociale du risque peut conduire au stockage de précaution et à une crise alimentaire auto-réalisatrice. Nous mettons aussi en évidence l’utilité sociale d’une information publique / The beginning of the 21st century is marked by two episodes of global food price spikes in 2007-08 and 2010-11, respectively. These price increases have worsened the level of food insecurity in many developing countries and have led to social unrest in some countries. Identifying the factors that contribute to increase the risk of food insecurity and understand the mechanisms that underpin the outbreak of a food crisis could help to improve food policy management.This thesis contributes to this objective. Chapter 2 estimates the different components of food supply variability by using disaggregated data of food balance sheets. Our results suggest that more than half of food supply variability is caused by country-specific shocks. Global shocks account for about 1% of the total variability.Chapter 3 shows that the impact of international trade on food supply variability depends on the country's portfolio of trade agreements. Chapter 4 uses the theoretical framework of bank panics and builds on work on perceived risk and cognitive biases to model consumer food purchasing behavior under uncertainty. We show how social amplification of risk can lead to precautionary storage and in fine self-fulfilling food crisis. We also highlight the social utility of reliable public information. Finally, Chapter 5 examines the impact of dietary composition on the probability of occurrence of social unrest in case of soaring world food prices. Our results suggest that the cereal concentration of the diet increases significantly the probability of social unrest.

Cette thèse développe l’analyse d’une politique économique environnementale appliquée dans le cadre d’une économie ouverte et dans celui d’une économie fermée. Elle étudie les effets sur le bien-être et l’environnement des réglementations volontaire et obligatoire tenant compte de l’hétérogénéité des agents économiques et des pays. Elle s’intéresse en particulier aux différents types d’éco-étiquetages en autarcie (Chapitre 1) et après ouverture au commerce international (Chapitre 2); aux programmes d’apport d’information à plusieurs niveaux (Chapitre 3); et aux taxes sur les émissions et marchés publics écologiques (Chapitre 4). L’analyse montre que non seulement le gouvernement mais également les éco-consommateurs peuvent inciter même les producteurs éco-indifférents à se décider pour l’agir respectueux de l’environnement. Les instruments de politique environnementale induisent auto-sélection et polarisation dans les marchés desservis par des entreprises hétérogènes en termes de productivité. Je démontre que des instruments volontaires peuvent avoir des résultats positifs sur le bien-être et l’environnement. En fonction d’hypothèses précises, ils peuvent également être plus efficaces que des approches obligatoires. Le modèle montre également que quand il y a ouverture au commerce international, la politique écologique a un effet supplémentaire sur le bien-être et sur l’environnement, dépendamment du type de politique et des consciences environnementales des différents pays commerciaux. / This thesis develops an applied environmental economic policy analysis in closed and open economy frameworks. It investigates welfare and environmental outcomes of voluntary and mandatory regulation allowing for heterogeneity across economic agents and countries. Particularly, it focuses on voluntary eco-labels of different types in autarky (Chapter 1) and upon opening to international trade (Chapter 2); multi-tier information provision programmes (Chapter 3); and emission taxes and green public procurement (Chapter 4). The analysis shows that not only the government but also eco-concerned consumers can incentivise even eco-indifferent producers to act more environmentally-friendly. Environmental policy instruments induce self-selection and polarisation in the markets served by firms heterogeneous in their productivity. I demonstrate that voluntary instruments can lead to positive welfare and environmental outcomes. Under particular assumptions, they also can be more efficient than mandatory approaches. The model also shows that upon opening to international trade eco-policy yields additional welfare and environmental effects conditionally on the type of the policy and the environmental awareness difference across trading countries.