<p>This thesis investigates health trends among very old people and the allocation of public home-help services. A further aim is to examine methodological issues in mortality analysis. Three data sources are used: (1) The Tierp study of community-dwelling persons (n=421, ages 75+), (2) the SWEOLD nationally representative samples (n=537 in 1992 and n=561 in 2002, ages 77+), and 3) SNAC-K comprised of home-help recipients in a district of Stockholm (n=1108, ages 65+).</p><p>Study I suggests that the length of the follow-up period may explain some of the differences found in predictor strength when comparing mortality studies. Predictors that can change rapidly (e.g., health) were found to be strongest for the short term, with a lower average mortality risk for longer follow-ups. Stable variables (e.g., gender) were less affected by length of follow-up.</p><p>Studies II and III present a measure of complex health problems based on serious problems in at least two of three health domains. These were diseases/symptoms, mobility, and cognition/communication. Prevalence of complex health problems increased significantly between 1992 and 2002. Older age, female gender, and lower education increased the odds of having complex problems. Complex problems strongly predicted 4-year mortality. Controlled for age, gender, health, and education, mortality decreased by 20% between 1992 and 2002. Men with complex problems accounted for this decrease. Thus, in 2002 the gender difference in mortality risk was almost eliminated among the most vulnerable adults.</p><p>Study IV revealed that physical and cognitive limitations, higher age, and living alone were significantly related to home-help allocation, with physical and cognitive limitations dominating. Psychiatric symptoms did not affect the assessment.</p><p>The increased prevalence of complex health problems and increased survival among people with complex needs have important implications concerning the need for collaboration among service providers.</p>

This thesis investigates health trends among very old people and the allocation of public home-help services. A further aim is to examine methodological issues in mortality analysis. Three data sources are used: (1) The Tierp study of community-dwelling persons (n=421, ages 75+), (2) the SWEOLD nationally representative samples (n=537 in 1992 and n=561 in 2002, ages 77+), and 3) SNAC-K comprised of home-help recipients in a district of Stockholm (n=1108, ages 65+). Study I suggests that the length of the follow-up period may explain some of the differences found in predictor strength when comparing mortality studies. Predictors that can change rapidly (e.g., health) were found to be strongest for the short term, with a lower average mortality risk for longer follow-ups. Stable variables (e.g., gender) were less affected by length of follow-up. Studies II and III present a measure of complex health problems based on serious problems in at least two of three health domains. These were diseases/symptoms, mobility, and cognition/communication. Prevalence of complex health problems increased significantly between 1992 and 2002. Older age, female gender, and lower education increased the odds of having complex problems. Complex problems strongly predicted 4-year mortality. Controlled for age, gender, health, and education, mortality decreased by 20% between 1992 and 2002. Men with complex problems accounted for this decrease. Thus, in 2002 the gender difference in mortality risk was almost eliminated among the most vulnerable adults. Study IV revealed that physical and cognitive limitations, higher age, and living alone were significantly related to home-help allocation, with physical and cognitive limitations dominating. Psychiatric symptoms did not affect the assessment. The increased prevalence of complex health problems and increased survival among people with complex needs have important implications concerning the need for collaboration among service providers.

[pt] Investidores estão sempre à procura de uma vantagem. Porém, tradicionais teorias financeiras nos dizem que tentar predizer tendências na bolsa de valores é um esforço em vão, uma vez que seguem um passeio aleatório, i.e., um processo estocástico ou randômico. Além disso, afirma-se que o mercado é eficiente de maneira que sempre incorpora e reflete toda informação relevante, o que torna impossível bater o mercado. Recentemente, com o crescimento da web e aumento da disponibilidade de dados em conjunto com a evolução dos algoritmos de Aprendizado de Máquina, diversos trabalhos tem aplicado técnicas de Processamento de Linguagem Natural em notícias financeiras e dados de redes sociais para prever variações do preço de ações. Consequentemente, estão surgindo fortes evidências que o mercado pode, em algum grau, ser previsto. Este trabalho descreve o desenvolvimento de uma aplicação baseada em Aprendizado de Máquina para realizar a predição de tendências no mercado de ações, i.e., variações negativas, positivas ou neutras de preços com granularidade de minuto. Avaliamos o sistema usando dados de cotação de ações da B3 (Brasil Bolsa Balcão), antiga BM&FBOVESPA, e um dataset de tópicos mais relevantes buscados no Google Search e seus artigos relacionados, que são disponibilizados pela plataforma Google Trends e coletados, minuto a minuto, de 15/08/2016 até 10/07/2017. Os experimentos mostram que esses dados provêem informação relevante para a tarefa em questão, onde conseguimos uma acurácia de 69.24 porcento para a predição de tendências do ativo PETR4, criando alguma / [en] Investors are always looking for an edge. However, traditional economic theories tell us that trying to predict short-term stock price movements is wasted effort, since it approximate a random walk, i.e., a stochastic or random process. Besides, these theories state that the market is efficient enough to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information, making it impossible to beat the market. In recent years, with the growth of the web and data availability in conjunction with advances in Machine Learning, a number of works are using Natural Language Processing to predict share price variations based on financial news and social networks data. Therefore, strong evidences are surfacing that the market can, in some level, be predicted. This work describes the development of an application based on Machine Learning to predict trends in the stock market, i.e., positive, negative or neutral price variations with minute granularity. We evaluate our system using B3 (Brasil Bolsa Balcão), formerly BM&FBOVESPA, stock quotes data, and a dataset with the most relevant topics of Google Search and its related articles, provided by the Google Trends platform and collected, minute by minute, from 08/15/2016 to 07/10/2017. The experiments show that this data provides useful information to the task at hand, in which we achieve 69.24 per cent accuracy predicting trends for the PETR4 stock, creating some leverage to make profits possible with intraday trading.

[pt] Neste trabalho, estudo o comportamento dos arbitradores ao se depararem com variações nos níveis de preços das ações, mais especificamente, analisando a forma como eles buscam informações sobre esses ativos. Para isso, testo e confirmo a hipótese de que os retornos anormais das ações levam os investidores a buscarem ativamente mais informações sobre essas empresas, usando dados de volume de buscas no Google. Adicionalmente, analiso de forma separada o impacto de retornos anormais negativos e de retornos anormais positivos sobre o volume de buscas do Google, chegando à conclusão de que os retornos negativos têm um efeito maior sobre o volume de buscas que os efeitos positivos. / [en] I study the behavior of arbitrageurs when they are faced with changes in stock price levels, more specifically analyzing the way they seek information about these assets. I test and confirm the hypothesis that abnormal stock returns prompt investors to seek actively information about these companies by using Google search volume data. Furthermore, I study the separate effects of negative abnormal returns and positive abnormal returns on Google search volumes, and conclude that negative returns cause a greater impact on the search volumes than positive returns.

The thesis deals with present trends in the world and the Czech insurance. This dissertation identifies the biggest problems further highlights the current changes in the market and at the end estimate future development, which would be the insurance market in next years to develop.

Aims: Trends in morbidity and mortality, fully or partially attributable to alcohol, for adults aged 18–64 were assessed for Germany. Methods: The underestimation of population exposure was corrected by triangulating survey data with per capita consumption. Alcohol-attributable fractions by sex and two age groups were estimated for major disease categories causally linked to alcohol. Absolute numbers, population rates and proportions relative to all hospitalizations and deaths were calculated. Results: Trends of 100% alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality over thirteen and eighteen years, respectively, show an increase in rates of hospitalizations and a decrease in mortality rates. Comparisons of alcohol-attributable morbidity including diseases partially caused by alcohol revealed an increase in hospitalization rates between 2006 and 2012. The proportion of alcohol-attributable hospitalizations remained constant. Rates of alcohol-attributable mortality and the proportion among all deaths decreased. Conclusions: The increasing trend in mortality due to alcohol until the mid-1990s has reversed. The constant proportion of all hospitalizations that were attributable to alcohol indicates that factors such as improved treatment and easier health care access may have influenced the general increase in all-cause morbidity. To further reduce alcohol-related mortality, efforts in reducing consumption and increasing treatment utilization are needed.

Purpose – As screen time per individual increases, more users of digital devices experience ocular related diseases. The purpose of this study is to gather reasons for the vast popularity Dark Mode gained in contemporary society, by investigating previous design eras. As a general lack of trend analysis within user interface design has been identified, the goal of the study is to lay the foundation for further research in the field of user interface design. Method – The study relies on a qualitative literature review. Publications related to Dark Mode, light-on-dark color schemes and digital trends were analyzed for topic-specific content that was then elaborated to give a critically viewed framework of the emerging trend. Findings – The results of our study indicate that various factors led to creation of the hyped trend, known as Dark Mode. It was first and foremost practicality of the light-on-dark color scheme that paved the way for Dark Mode. All operating systems, many apps, platforms and even websites incorporated it in their design. Being an optional feature, Dark Mode makes it more comfortable for users to use their devices outside the light hours or in environments with bad lighting conditions. With Dark Mode users get a far-reaching personalization tool, that visually changes essentially the whole OS or app. From a psychological point of view this improves user satisfaction, as humans naturally are seeking way to be in control. Being in control of own devices is undoubtedly an important aspect of it. Besides that, Dark Mode houses potential to lower energy consumption of devices and provides users with longer battery times. This, however, only applies to devices with display technology like OLED, where backlighting is at least divided into zones, that can be turned off when not in use. Devices with conventional LED displays cannot benefit from lower energy consumption. Implications – The study indicates that individuals use Dark Mode for a more satisfying user experience as they feel e.g. less eye strain with a dark themed user interface. Editing and coding software is mostly designed in a light-on-dark color scheme, as users often work for long continuous hours on screen, surrounded by dark environment. As screen time per individual increases, more users are experiencing ocular diseases. In counteraction, society demanded dark themed interfaces for operating systems, websites, and apps. As individuals were already using unofficial dark themes on different interfaces, tech companies started releasing system updates to make Dark Mode a choice. As Apple released their user interface update just in 2019, Dark Mode is still a relevant trend discussed in the industry and society. Experts indicate that Dark Mode is here to stay, as it satisfies preferences of many users and makes current OLED screens and future digital devices with appropriate display technology more sustainable. Limitations – The time frame of the study, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic greatly limited the possibilities of conducting the study. Due to the novelty of the trend, there is lack of previous research, which limited the view on the subject to only work available. Keywords – Dark Mode, dark-on-light color scheme, retro trends, user interface design, user experience, digital trends, display, screen, screen time, eye strain

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Die vorliegende wissenschaftliche Arbeit widmet sich epidemiologischen Frage-stellungen zu CED bei Kindern und Jugendlichen am Anfang des 21. Jahrhunderts in Deutschland. Konkrete Aufgabenstellungen bestanden in der Vervollständigung, Validierung, Aufbereitung, Auswertung und Publikation der über 15 Jahre (2000-2014) erhobenen Daten des Sächsischen Kinder-CED-Registers mit dem Ziel, die hypothetische Zunahme der CED in Sachsen zu untersuchen, zu dokumentieren und quantifizieren. Im Fokus der Auswertung stehen vor allem die Inzidenz, Prävalenz und die bisherigen und zukünftigen Trends von CED bei Kindern und Jugendlichen bis zum 15. Lebensjahr in einem der neuen Bundesländer Deutschlands.:Abkürzungsverzeichnis V Abbildungsverzeichnis VII Tabellenverzeichnis VIII Zusammenfassung 1 Abstract 4 1 Einführung in die Thematik 7 1.1 Wissenschaftliche Ausgangssituation 7 1.2 Hintergrund für die Registergründung in Sachsen 8 1.3 Aufgabenstellung 9 2 Theoretisch wissenschaftlicher Ansatz der eigenen Arbeiten 10 2.1 Material und Methoden 10 2.1.1 Sächsisches Kinder-CED-Register 10 2.1.2 Finanzielle Förderung 11 2.1.3 Zweite Datenquelle und Registervollständigkeit 12 2.1.4 Population unter Risiko 12 2.1.5 Merkmale der Patientenkohorte 13 2.2 Statistische Auswertungen 13 3 Wesentliche wissenschaftliche Ergebnisse 15 3.1 Inzidenzraten und Prävalenz 15 3.2 Analyse von Inzidenztrends 18 3.3 Analyse des Alterstrends bei Manifestation 20 3.4 Diagnostische Latenz 21 3.5 Prognostizierte Inzidenztrends 23 4 Diskussion 26 4.1 Langzeitentwicklung der Anzahl von CED-Patienten 26 4.2 Internationale und nationale Einordnung der Ergebnisse 27 4.3 Stärken und Limitationen 32 4.3.1 Stärken der Arbeit 32 4.3.2 Limitationen der Arbeit 32 5 Schlussfolgerungen und Ausblick 33 Literatur IX Danksagung XVIII Anlage 1: Erklärungen zur Eröffnung des Promotionsverfahrens XIX Anlage 2: Erklärung über die Einhaltung gesetzlicher Bestimmungen XXI Anlage 3: Kern et al. (2021) XXII Anlage 4: Kern et al. (2022) XLI Anlage 5: Einwilligungserklärung der Eltern LXI Anlage 6: Erstmeldebogen LXII Anlage 7: Dokumentationsbogen LXIII Anlage 8: Eigenanteil LXIV

ANALYSE VON 1.990 AUTOPSIEFÄLLEN MIT ANGEBORENEM HERZFEHLER IM KINDERSEKTIONSGUT DER CHARITÈ VON 1952 BIS 1996 Die vorliegende Arbeit basiert auf dem retrospektiven Studium der Befunde aller Kinder unter 16 Jahren, der Totgeburten und Schwangerschaftsbeendigungen, die von 1952 bis 1996 an der Charité, Medizinische Fakultät der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, autopsiert wurden. Alle Berichte, in denen ein angeborener Herzfehler vorlag, wurden eingesehen. Die Zielstellung bestand darin, Veränderungen und Trends in der Häufigkeit der kongenitalen Vitien, im Sterbealter, im klinischen Verlauf (operative oder interventionelle Therapie) und in den Todesursachen, zum einen in Abhängigkeit von der Art des Herzfehlers und des weiteren vom Zeitabschnitt innerhalb der 45 Jahre, zu untersuchen. Die genannten Aspekte wurden in einer dafür erstellten Datenbank erfaßt. Insgesamt fanden sich unter den 11.261 Sektionen 1.990 Fälle mit einem angeborenen Herzfehler, dies entspricht einer Häufigkeit von 17,7%. Diese Gruppe setzte sich zusammen aus 1.774 Lebendgeborenen, 138 Totgeburten und 78 Schwangerschaftsbeendigungen. 76,7% aller Kinder verstarben im Säuglingsalter. In der zeitlichen Betrachtung variierte die Altersstruktur deutlich, beeinflußt von der Entwicklung der Interventionskardiologie und Kinderherzchirurgie an der Charité. Von den 1.774 Lebendgeborenen hatten 699 Kinder (39,4%) eine invasive Therapie (chirurgisch/ katheterinterventionell) erhalten. Innerhalb der 45 Jahre zeigte sich ein signifikanter Anstieg im Anteil der operierten Kinder. Deren Häufigkeit wiederum war deutlich abhängig vom zugrundeliegenden Herzfehler. In der detaillierten Analyse der operativen Therapie stellte sich die Wandlung der Herzchirurgie von den extrakardialen Palliationsoperationen als Ersteingriff zu den heutigen Korrekturoperationen und komplexen Palliationen dar. Von allen operierten Kindern verstarben 631 (90,3%) perioperativ. Bei den Todesursachen im natürlichen Verlauf lag in 41,6% eine dekompensierte chronische Herzinsuffizienz vor, in 26,8% eine Komplikation des Herzfehlers (thrombembolische Ereignisse, hypoxische Hirnschädigung, Endokarditis). 10% der Kinder wiesen letale extrakardiale Fehlbildungen auf. In 21,6% der Fälle stand die Todesursache nicht im Zusammenhang mit dem Herzfehler. Zusammenfassend ließ sich in dieser Arbeit klar demonstrieren, wie sehr sich die Fortschritte in der Diagnostik und Therapie der angeborenen Herzfehler auf die Befunde in einem Sektionsgut auswirken. Ausgehend davon kann deren kritische Einschätzung zur Qualitätssicherung der klinischen Entwicklungen beitragen. / ANALYSIS OF 1.990 AUTOPSY CASES WITH CONGENITAL HEART DISEASE AT THE CHARITÈ-HOSPITAL BETWEEN 1952 TO 1996 In a retrospective review we have examined the reports of all children under the age of 16 years, stillbirth and terminated pregnancies that underwent a post-mortem at the Charité Hospital between 1952 to 1996. Specifically we were interested in the cases with congenital heart malformations. We wanted to find out about changes in the frequency of congenital heart disease, the age of these patients, their clinical history (kind of interventional or surgical therapy) and the cause of death depending on the kind of cardiac defect and the time over the period of 45 years. All criterias were registered in a database and analysed for statistical significance. In the series of 11.261 autopsies we found 1.990 cases with a congenital heart malformation (medium frequency of 17,7%). The group consists of 1.774 liveborn children, 138 stillbirths and 78 cases of abortion. 76,7% of all liveborn children died within the first year. Depending on time this age differed significantly according to the innovations in cardiac surgery and interventional procedures. Of all 1.774 liveborn cases 699 children (39,4%) had an invasive (surgical/interventional) procedure. Over the time period there was a significant increase in the percentage of operated children. Their frequency again was clearly depending on the kind of cardiac defect. In the detailed analysis of the kind of therapy we could show the development of cardiac surgery from palliative extracardiac procedures at the beginning to corrective and more complex palliations nowadays. 631 (90,3%) of all operated children died perioperatively whereas the others died from left heart failure in 41,6%, in 26,8% a serious complication of the cardiac defect (arterial embolism, cerebral hypoxia, endocarditis) was the cause, in 10,0% a lethal extracardiac congenital malformation was present and in 21,6% the cause of death was not related to the cardiac defect. From the results of the study we could conclude that the criterias in a post-mortem series depend enormously on the present clinical situation concerning the kind cardiac defect and the kind of therapy according to the development of cardiac surgery and interventional procedures. There are further current studies necessary in order to evaluate recent clinical questions using autopsy results.