In the last decade, a new wave of socio-technical cyber threats has emerged that is targeting both the technical and social vulnerabilities of organizations and requires fast and efficient threat mitigations. Yet, it is still common that financial organizations rely on yearly reviewed risk management methodologies that are slow and static to mitigate the ever-changing cyber threats. The purpose of this research is to explore the field of Dynamic Risk Management in Information Security from a socio-technical perspective in order to mitigate both types of threats faster and dynamically to better suit the connected world we live in today. In this study, the Design Science Research methodology was utilized to create a Dynamic Information Security Risk Management model based on functionality requirements collected through interviews with professionals in the financial sector and structured literature studies. Finally, the constructed dynamic model was then evaluated in terms of its functionality and usability. The results of the evaluation showed that the finalized dynamic risk management model has great potential to mitigate both social and technical cyber threats in a dynamic fashion. / Under senaste decenniet har en ny våg av sociotekniska cyberhot uppkommit som är riktade både mot de sociala och tekniska sårbarheterna hos organisationer. Dessa hot kräver snabba och effektiva hotreduceringar, dock är det fortfarande vanligt att finansiella organisationer förlitar sig på årligen granskade riskhanteringsmetoder som både är långsamma och statiska för att mildra de ständigt föränderliga cyberhoten. Syftet med denna forskning är att undersöka området för dynamisk riskhantering inom informationssäkerhet ur ett sociotekniskt perspektiv, med målsättningen att snabbare och dynamiskt kunna mildra bägge typerna av hot för att bättre passa dagens uppkopplade värld.  I studien användes Design Science Research för att skapa en dynamisk riskhanteringsmodell med syfte att hantera sociotekniska cyberhot mot informationssäkerheten. Riskhanteringsmodellen är baserad på funktionskrav insamlade genom intervjuer med yrkesverksamma inom finanssektorn, samt strukturerade litteraturstudier.  Avslutningsvis utvärderades den konstruerade dynamiska modellen avseende dess funktionalitet och användbarhet. Resultaten av utvärderingen påvisade att den slutgiltiga dynamiska riskhanteringsmodellen har en stor potential att mitigera både sociala och tekniska cyberhot på ett dynamiskt sätt.

Nous entamons ce rapport de thèse par l’évaluation de l’espérance espérée qui représente une des composantes majeures des ajustements XVA. Sous l’hypothèse d’indépendance entre l’exposition et les coûts de financement et de crédit, nous dérivons dans le chapitre 3 une représentation nouvelle de l’exposition espérée comme la solution d’une équation différentielle ordinaire par rapport au temps d’observation du défaut. Nous nous basons, pour le cas unidimensionnel, sur des arguments similaires à ceux de la volatilité locale de Dupire. Et pour le cas multidimensionnel, nous nous référons à la formule de la Co-aire. Cette représentation permet d’expliciter l’impact de la volatilité sur l’exposition espérée : Cette valeur temps fait intervenir la volatilité des sous-jacents ainsi que la sensibilité au premier ordre du prix, évalués sur un ensemble fini de points. Malgré des limitations numériques, cette méthode est une approche précise et rapide pour la valorisation de la XVA unitaire en dimension 1 et 2.Les chapitres suivants sont dédiés aux aspects du risque de corrélations entre les enveloppes d’expositions et les coûts XVA. Nous présentons une modélisation du risque général de corrélation à travers une diffusion stochastique multivariée, comprenant à la fois les sous-jacents des dérivés et les intensités de défaut. Dans ce cadre, nous exposons une nouvelle approche de valorisation par développements asymptotiques, telle que le prix d’un ajustement XVA correspond au prix de l’ajustement à corrélation nulle, auquel s’ajoute une somme explicite de termes correctifs. Le chapitre 4 est consacré à la dérivation technique et à l’étude de l’erreur numérique dans le cadre de la valorisation de dérivés contingents au défaut. La qualité des approximations numériques dépend uniquement de la régularité du processus de diffusion de l’intensité de crédit, et elle est indépendante de la régularité de la fonction payoff. Les formules de valorisation pour CVA et FVA sont présentées dans le chapitre 5. Une généralisation des développements asymptotiques pour le cadre bilatéral de défaut est adressée dans le chapitre 6.Nous terminons ce mémoire en abordant un cas du risque spécifique de corrélation lié aux contrats de migration de rating. Au-delà des formules de valorisation, notre contribution consiste à présenter une approche robuste pour la construction et la calibration d’un modèle de transition de ratings consistant avec les probabilités de défaut implicites de marché / The point of departure of this thesis is the valuation of the expected exposure which represents one of the major components of XVA adjustments. Under independence assumptions with credit and funding costs, we derive in Chapter 3 a new representation of the expected exposure as the solution of an ordinary differential equation w.r.t the default time variable. We rely on PDE arguments in the spirit of Dupire’s local volatility equation for the one dimensional problem. The multidimensional extension is addressed using the co-area formula. This forward representation gives an explicit expression of the exposure’s time value, involving the local volatility of the underlying diffusion process and the first order Greek delta, both evaluated only on finite set of points. From a numerical perspective, dimensionality is the main limitation of this approach. Though, we highlight high accuracy and time efficiency for standalone calculations in dimensions 1 and 2.The remaining chapters are dedicated to aspects of the correlation risk between the exposure and XVA costs. We start with the general correlation risk which is classically modeled in a joint diffusion process for market variables and the credit/funding spreads. We present a novel approach based on asymptotic expansions in a way that the price of an XVA adjustment with correlation risk is given by the classical correlation-free adjustment to which is added a sum of explicit correction terms depending on the exposure Greeks. Chapter 4 is consecrated to the technical derivation and error analysis of the expansion formulas in the context of pricing credit contingent derivatives. The accuracy of the valuation approach is independent of the smoothness of the payoff function, but it is related to the regularity of the credit intensity model. This finding is of special interest for pricing in a real financial context. Pricing formulas for CVA and FVA adjustments are derived in Chapter 5, along with numerical experiments. A generalization of the asymptotic expansions to a bilateral default risk setting is addressed in Chapter 6.Our thesis ends by tackling the problem of modeling the specific Right-Way Risk induced by rating trigger events within the collateral agreements. Our major contribution is the calibration of a rating transition model to market implied default probabilities

Рассматриваются факторы и специфические формы проявлений трудового оппортунизма персонала дошкольной организации, дана характеристика особенностей рынка дошкольного образования, проведен анализ рынка труда педагогических кадров Свердловской области, выявлены проблемы управления в ДОО, которые могут стать основаниями для возникновения оппортунистического поведения персонала, определены механизмы преодоления. Теоретические выводы, содержащиеся в работе, могут служить обоснованием принципов построения программы мероприятий по управлению оппортунистическим поведением персонала дошкольной организации. / The article considers the factors and specific forms of labor opportunism of staff in pre-school organization, describes the features of the pre-school education market, analyzes the labor market of pedagogical personnel in the Sverdlovsk region, identifies management problems in pre-school organizations that can become the basis for the emergence of opportunistic behavior of staff, identifies the causes of their occurrence, and develops measures to overcome them.

Universally complications exist concerning insurance cover for the risks posed by pollution damage. Environmental insurance cover can be procured under first-party or third-party insurance. For the latter, the polluter's statutory or civil liability is required. The determination of liability for compensation, especially delictual liability, remains problematic. The right to the environment in section 24 of the Constitution creates a general duty of care. The introduction of a strict liability regime can be recommended to alleviate the burden of proving fault and contributory negligence. Where there is multiple or cumulative causation or the exact identity of the polluter is unknown, potential solutions regarding the allocation of liability include a pollution-share, joint and several, market-share or, as a last resort, a proportional allocation. Actionable damages should include property damage, pure economic loss, clean-up costs and natural resource damages, including compensation for reduced aesthetic value. Due to the uncertainty and potential magnitude of pollution-related claims, insurers have attempted to avoid or limit these risks by including specific pollution exclusion and limitation clauses in policies. Statutory regulation of policy content and prescribed wording for clauses could address problems relating to the interpretation of policy provisions. Various other issues such as the coverage of gradual pollution, the effect of the various triggers of coverage and the potential long-tail liability of insurer, the lack of information and the unpredictability of the risk cause further complications for both the insured and the insurer. Policies should preferably be issued on a `claims-made' basis linked to retroactive dates. Mandatory third-party insurance to the benefit of a third party should be required within specific high-risk industries, specifically for the benefit of the prejudiced person or an environmental remediation fund. The right of a prejudiced party to claim directly from the polluter's liability insurer should be introduced. Currently, the focus appears to be more on protection and environmental remediation than on civil compensation. There is an urgent need for the development of statutory and civil liability compensation mechanisms and for an increased regulation of insurance policies and practices to ensure effective insurance cover to provide compensation for environmental damage. / Jurisprudence / LL.D.

Universally complications exist concerning insurance cover for the risks posed by pollution damage. Environmental insurance cover can be procured under first-party or third-party insurance. For the latter, the polluter's statutory or civil liability is required. The determination of liability for compensation, especially delictual liability, remains problematic. The right to the environment in section 24 of the Constitution creates a general duty of care. The introduction of a strict liability regime can be recommended to alleviate the burden of proving fault and contributory negligence. Where there is multiple or cumulative causation or the exact identity of the polluter is unknown, potential solutions regarding the allocation of liability include a pollution-share, joint and several, market-share or, as a last resort, a proportional allocation. Actionable damages should include property damage, pure economic loss, clean-up costs and natural resource damages, including compensation for reduced aesthetic value. Due to the uncertainty and potential magnitude of pollution-related claims, insurers have attempted to avoid or limit these risks by including specific pollution exclusion and limitation clauses in policies. Statutory regulation of policy content and prescribed wording for clauses could address problems relating to the interpretation of policy provisions. Various other issues such as the coverage of gradual pollution, the effect of the various triggers of coverage and the potential long-tail liability of insurer, the lack of information and the unpredictability of the risk cause further complications for both the insured and the insurer. Policies should preferably be issued on a `claims-made' basis linked to retroactive dates. Mandatory third-party insurance to the benefit of a third party should be required within specific high-risk industries, specifically for the benefit of the prejudiced person or an environmental remediation fund. The right of a prejudiced party to claim directly from the polluter's liability insurer should be introduced. Currently, the focus appears to be more on protection and environmental remediation than on civil compensation. There is an urgent need for the development of statutory and civil liability compensation mechanisms and for an increased regulation of insurance policies and practices to ensure effective insurance cover to provide compensation for environmental damage. / Jurisprudence / LL.D.