This thesis aims to improve sales forecasting in the context of passenger airlines. We study two important issues that could potentially improve forecasting accuracy: day-to-day price change rather than price itself, and linking flights that are likely to be considered as pairs for a round trip by passengers; we refer to the latter as the Round-Trip Model (RTM). We find that price change is a significant variable regardless of days remaining to flight in the last three weeks to flight departure, which opens the possibility of planning for revenue maximizing price change patterns. We also find that the RTM can improve the precision of the forecasting models, and provide an improved pricing strategy for planners. In the study of the effect of price change on sales, analysis of variance is applied; finite regression mixture models were tested to identify linked traffic in the two directions and the linked flights on a route in reverse directions; adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is applied to develop comparative models for studying sales effect between price and price change, and one-way versus round-trip models. The price change model demonstrated more robust results with comparable estimation errors, and the concept model for the round-trip with only one linked flight reduced estimation error by 5%. This empirical study is performed on a database with 22,900 flights which was obtained from a major North American passenger airline.

In these few years, gradually Internet develops to wideband, multimedia is being used on video or music. In addition, the use of IP Multicast must be based on the deployment of routers, which is too difficult to arrange. Utilities of Application Layer Multicast is in the middle and just between IP Multicast and Unicast.Therefore, in this paper, Application Layer Multicast is still worth to study it. In this paper, is applied effectively build the Application Layer Multicast. Control through the IP Anycast Technique, we can lower the time for host join the Multicast Tree. Every host can join the nearest cluster. We use the hierarchical cluster-based Method in order to serve more hosts. This concept about cluster can substantially decrease control overhead. The Complete Binary Trees lower the cluster leader¡¦s burden, also phased RTT decided effectively the transit sequence. In Summary, associate techniques with methods, to make up the defects from NICE and I-Zigzag.

Existing macroscopic models for the flow of traffic treat traffic as a continuum or employ techniques similar to those used in the kinetic theory of gases. Spurious two- way propagation of disturbances that are physically unacceptable are predicted by continuum models for the flow of traffic. The number of vehicles in a typical section of a freeway does not justify traffic being treated as a continuum. It is also important to recognize that the basic premises of kinetic theory are not appropriate for the flow of traffic. A model for the flow of traffic that does not treat traffic as a continuum or use notions from kinetic theory is developed in this dissertation and corroborated with traffic data collected from the sensors deployed on US 183 freeway in Austin, Texas, USA. The flow of traffic exhibits distinct characteristics under different conditions and reflects the congestion during peak hours and relatively free motion during off-peak hours. This requires one to use different governing equations to describe the diverse traffic characteristics, namely the different traffic flow regimes of response. Such an approach has been followed in this dissertation. An observer based on extended Kalman filtering technique has been utilized for the purpose of estimating the traffic state. Historical traffic data has been used for model calibration. The estimated model parameters have consistent values for different traffic conditions. These esti- mated model parameters are then subsequently used for estimation of the state of traffic in real-time. A short-term traffic state forecasting approach, based on the non-continuum traffic model, which incorporates weighted historical and real-time traffic information has been developed. A methodology for predicting trip travel time based on this approach has also been developed. Ten and fifteen minute predictions for traffic state and trip travel time seem to agree well with the traffic data collected on US 183.

<p>Denna rapport undersöker krav, tagna från ett ramverk för evaluering av CASE-verktyg i ett kontextuellt sammanhang, i två representativa CASE-verktyg. Ramverket utnyttjar en modell som föreslagits av Lundell och Lings för att extrahera både krav och förväntningar som en organisation (www.it.volvo.com) hade på vad ett CASE-verktyg är och kan utföra.</p><p>Ramverket extraherar krav i ett organisationell kontext, dvs. utvärderingen utfördes innan verktyget som evaluerades användes i organisationen. Detta indikerar på att kraven inte är knutna till ett specifikt verktyg, samt att CASE-verktyg inte säkert stödjer dessa krav.</p><p>Resultatet för denna rapport är att viss semantisk förlust uppstod vid transformering av kod och modeller.</p>

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Die Kombination von hoher Festigkeit und guter Dehnung ist eine wichtige Anforderung an moderne Werkstoffarten. Es wird angestrebt, diese Werkstoffeigenschaften effektiv und preiswert zu erreichen. TRIP-Stähle stellen eine Werkstoffart dar, welche im Stande ist, diese Kriterien zu erfüllen. Die hervorragenden Eigenschaften dieser Stahlart sind nicht nur durch das von Ferrit, Bainit und Restaustenit gebildete Mehrphasengefüge gegeben, sondern werden auch durch den TRIP-Effekt (transformation induced plasticity) begünstigt. Als TRIP-Effekt wird die Umwandlung von Restaustenit in verformungsinduzierten Martensit während der Kaltverformung bezeichnet. In der Automobilindustrie werden TRIP-Stähle insbesondere für die Herstellung von Sicherheitskomponenten verwendet, da sie über die Fähigkeit verfügen, ein großes Ausmaß an Verformungsenergie während des Aufpralls zu absorbieren. Die hohe Festigkeit ermöglicht eine weitere Senkung des Komponentengewichtes. TRIP-Werkstoffe sind jedoch nicht nur für die Herstellung von Blechkomponenten interessant, sondern können auch bei anderen Anwendungen eingesetzt werden, z.B. bei der Massivumformung. Bei der Massivumformung von TRIP-Stählen entstehen Probleme, die bei der Blechbehandlung nicht auftreten. Es handelt sich insbesondere um die Notwendigkeit eine gleichmäßige Verformungs- und Temperaturfeldverteilung über den ganzen Werkstoffquerschnitt zu gewährleisten. Es ist wichtig, eine richtige Abkühlung der Proben zu erreichen, damit auch in der Probenmitte eine ausreichende Abkühlgeschwindigkeit erreicht wird, welche die Entstehung eines Ferrit-Bainit-Gefüges ermöglicht und die Restaustenitstabilität unterstützt. Diese Probleme schränken die Produktionsmöglichkeit eines komplexen TRIP-Gefüges in Massivhalbzeugen in der Industrie ein. Für diese Arbeit wurden technologische Möglichkeiten, Parameter der thermomechanischen Behandlung und Endeigenschaften von insgesamt drei niedriglegierten TRIP-Stählen untersucht. Die gewonnenen Erkenntnisse ermöglichten die Herstellung relativ dickwandiger Hohlhalbzeuge. Dazu wurde eine Herstellungskette genutzt, die Bohrungsdrücken, interkritisches Glühen und Kaltdrückwalzen für optimale Werkstoffeigenschaften beinhaltet. Mithilfe der gewonnenen Erkenntnisse wurde sogar nachgewiesen, dass aus den im Rahmen dieser Arbeit bearbeiteten Werkstoffen Halbzeuge gewonnen werden können, die sowohl eine höhere Festigkeit also auch eine höhere Dehnung aufweisen als konventionell hergestellte Bleche aus niedriglegierten TRIP-Stählen.

Work trips are considered one of public transportation's biggest markets. It is important to understand this market as fully as possible because of the potential for congestion mitigation or air quality improvements, among other things. While much effort has been invested in researching travel on public transit, very little effort has been concentrated in understanding the work travel market. This document attempts to be a comprehensive resource which can provide current information on the persons and trips being taken on public transit for travel to/from work. This research looks at the 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) to examine the difference between work and non-work transit trips and riders, choice and captive work trips and riders, and New York City (NYC) and non-NYC work trips and riders. In addition, transit mode share for work trips across an array of socio-demographic factors is examined. As a supplement, historical trend data utilizing past NHTS/Nationwide Personal Transportation Surveys (NPTS), the American Community Survey, and American Public Transportation Association data is used. The data analysis is primarily descriptive in nature and is performed in SPSS (a statistical analysis software) and then graphed in Microsoft Excel. Interpretation of the results is based upon a comprehensive literature review and the author's knowledge and familiarity in the field of public transit. There were several interesting and noteworthy findings uncovered during this research. In the historical trend analysis, it was discovered that the proportion of transit trips being for travel to/from work has declined since 1983. Further analysis appears to indicate that the decline is being caused by new riders who are making new non-work trips. This comes as the existing work riders and trip numbers appear to be holding steady. More research is needed to confirm this finding and to probe for more specific reasons on why this is occurring. In terms of work transit trips, it was discovered that they tend to be taken on faster modes (such as commuter rail and elevated/subway) resulting in slightly higher in-vehicle speeds than non-work transit trips (11.8 MPH versus 11.2 MPH). The analysis also showed that those commuting via non-transit modes were 20 percent more likely to make a stop on their commute than those that took transit. Of those commuting on transit, riders were more likely to make a stop on their way home from work rather than to work. An analysis of choice and captive riders found that in the 16-24 year old age group, 85 percent of riders were choice riders. This finding could perhaps signify that more young adults are choosing to ride transit. However, this result should be interpreted with caution because of the small sample size and potential data issues with the 2009 NHTS dataset. More research should be carried out in the future to verify these results.

Understanding transit usage has become a critical transportation research interest and policy goal. This thesis presents results of an analysis of the 2001 NHTS data specifically focusing on the newly released appended variables that measure access or distance to public transportation. Statistically significant public transportation distance intervals from households and individuals were chosen for analysis in relation to other key variables in the original dataset. Actual relationships between public transportation and traditional household and person characteristics nationwide are explored, specifically focusing on both rail and bus transit modes for the work commute trip. Geographically, both inclusions and exclusions in analysis are conducted due to the widely accepted ubiquitous transit network present in the NY region. The analysis reveals strong differences in household and workplace access to transit as a function of race, income, auto ownership, and urban area size. Additionally, a very high sensitivity to access exists suggesting that the share of transit accessible trips is smaller than previously acknowledged. Approximately 53 percent of households are within aviimile of bus service and 40 percent within a quarter-mile. Approximately 10 percent of the population lives within one mile of rail. Over 50 percent of workplaces are within a quarter mile walk radius of a bus line. Not surprisingly, work is more closely concentrated near transit than are residences. Furthermore, mode share for transit declines approximately two thirds beyond the first interval beyond 0.15 miles from a bus route. These observations imply a high value to services in close proximity to residential areas.Historical work in this topic area include geographically specific data analysis obtained from surveys which potentially allow a degree of subjectivity in perceived responses whereas accessibility and distance data analyzed in this thesis are actual and spatially measured. Additionally, a regression model exploring the significance of actual access to transit upon mode choice is performed to explore the significance of influence by measured access variables. The analysis suggests that access is even more critical than might have previously been acknowledged by the transit planning profession.

Transportation analysts have monitored with interest the emergence of trip chaining, or multi-purpose trip making, which is becoming a common method of travel for many households. As of 2001, 61% of all working age adults trip chained. From a policy perspective, this warrants attention as these 61% of adults who trip chain generate 68% of average daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT). In addition, most trip chaining is accomplished by automobile and generally alone or with other family members. Trip chaining research has focused predominantly on travel by workers and findings suggest that one reason for its increase is that workers are scheduling non-work activities into their work commute, largely to support household needs (primarily childcare but also for shopping and personal business). Since the 1990s, significant federal funding has supported programs to improve air quality through reduced emissions. These include employer-based programs that seek to reduce VMT through ride sharing and the use of transit, along with incentives for doing so. The success of these programs is based on the flexibility of the commuter to change his/her work mode. As indicated above, however, trip chaining is typically associated with decreased flexibility and almost in direct conflict with programs that encourage alternative commute modes. This research identifies household, demographic, work, and activity setting factors that influence trip chaining in order to understand the related policy implications for employer-based programs that seek to reduce VMT through encouraging alternative commute modes. Using the 2001 National Household Travel Survey, a market segmentation identified trip chaining influencers. These were primarily the presence of children under the age of 16, worker status, more than one household adult, a high vehicle-to-worker ratio, and educational attainment above the high school level. The findings indicate that while between 30 and 42% of workers commute in the traditional manner, employer-based programs can achieve greater returns if increased focus is placed on improving employer amenities. In addition, further VMT reduction can be achieved through new programs that target the household instead of the employer, as evidenced by the TravelSmart program in Australia and SmartTrips program in Portland, OR. / text

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