A intervenção no Banco Santos, em novembro de 2004, propiciou o surgimento de uma crise de liquidez em um segmento bem delimitado do mercado bancário brasileiro. O presente estudo procurou caracterizar e dimensionar o fenômeno com base em dados contábeis e informações publicamente disponíveis de 84 instituições do mercado. Utilizou-se a análise gráfica associada à análise de correlação para avaliar o comportamento dos saldos das contas Depósitos antes e após a intervenção. Como resultado, os bancos foram segregados em 5 grupos. O grupo que agregou os maiores bancos do mercado passou a ser o grupo de controle para a análise. A delimitação do grupo dos bancos, presumivelmente, contagiados (grupo de estudo) possibilitou avaliar a evolução dos resgates de depósitos e o papel das carteiras de crédito e de títulos como provedoras de liquidez. A análise realçou a importância dos depósitos compulsórios sobre depósitos a prazo como reserva de liquidez. Determinou-se também o volume de créditos cedidos ao longo do período. Concluiu-se que houve uma mudança no perfil das carteiras de crédito dos bancos afetados, com um aumento do percentual aprovisionado para risco de crédito, aproximando-o dos valores do grupo de controle, que utiliza critérios mais conservadores. Procurou-se, por fim, cotejar os eventos observados e as características do sistema financeiro brasileiro com o arcabouço teórico e empírico existente, principalmente em relação a dois aspectos: fundamentos que justificam o exercício da supervisão bancária e teoria das cascatas de informações analisada no âmbito das corridas bancárias. / The intervention on a small bank (banco Santos), in November 2004, has provoked a liquidity crisis on a specific segment of the Brazilian banking market. The objective of this case study has been to assess and characterize the phenomenon, based on balance sheet data and public information about 84 financial institutions of the market. Through graphical analysis associated with statistical correlation analysis, the behavior of the deposit account, before and after the intervention, was determined. As a result banks have been classified on five different groups. The group with the biggest banks was designed as the control group and banks that have showed loss of deposits and could have been, potentially, affected by a liquidity crisis were denominated as study group. The definition of the, presumable, contaminated group of banks has permitted to assess the evolution of deposits? withdraws as well as the role of the credit and security portfolios as providers of liquidity. The analysis has shown the importance of the reserve requirements over time deposits as a liquidity reservoir. It has also been determined the volume of credit transferred along the period of analysis. The conclusion is that the credit loss provision has augmented, getting closer to the values of the control group that uses more conservative provision standards. This study has also evaluated the observed events and the characteristics of the Brazilian financial system, with theoretical and experimental background, mainly focusing two aspects: fundaments that justify the exercise of banking supervision and the theory of information cascades on basis of the bank runs.

Os depositantes, ao aplicarem seus recursos nos bancos, delegam a estes a função de monitoramento dos tomadores de empréstimos e, com isso, podem concentrar seus esforços em monitorar a instituição bancária. A disciplina de mercado ex-post é exercida na eventualidade de os bancos assumirem riscos excessivos, e de os depositantes, ao serem informados de tal fato, serem capazes de agir no sentido de disciplinar os bancos, seja pela requisição de taxas de juros mais elevadas, seja pelo saque de seus depósitos. A disciplina de mercado ex-ante é exercida sobre os gestores dos bancos que, conhecedores das conseqüências de assumirem riscos excessivos para suas instituições, preferem não tomar essa atitude. Um dos veículos de informação para o exercício do monitoramento, e subsídio para as ações de disciplinamento, são os demonstrativos contábeis divulgados periodicamente. A aplicação dos princípios contábeis faculta ao gestor o exercício da discricionariedade na apuração das acumulações contábeis, accruals. Essa possibilidade permite que a discricionariedade seja exercida de forma oportunística, prática conhecida genericamente na literatura contábil como manipulação contábil / gerenciamento de resultados, com o propósito de iludir o usuário da informação contábil e levar à obtenção de benefícios tanto para os bancos como pessoalmente para seus gestores. O objetivo desta tese foi verificar a existência de evidências empíricas de que as acumulações contábeis discricionárias influenciam o exercício da disciplina de mercado exercida pelos depositantes dos bancos brasileiros. O estudo efetuou a separação das acumulações contábeis não-discricionárias e discricionárias por meio da utilização das variáveis de despesas e saldo de provisão para créditos de liquidação duvidosa, saldo e sua variação das operações de crédito, saldo e sua variação das operações em atraso, operações registradas como prejuízo e, além disso, inova com a consideração do risco das operações de crédito por meio da utilização, como proxy do risco, da taxa de juros das operações de crédito. Utiliza modelos econométricos para avaliar a influência das acumulações contábeis discricionárias na disciplina de mercado, por meio da utilização das variáveis de taxa de juros e variação dos volumes de depósitos, índice de alavancagem, despesas de provisão para créditos de liquidação duvidosa, despesas de pessoal, razão das receitas de prestação de serviço e outras despesas administrativas, retorno dos ativos e seu desvio da média amostral e liquidez, além de variáveis de controle. Quanto à formulação teórica, recorreu-se, sob o aspecto econômico, à teoria do monitoramento delegado; sob o aspecto contábil, à abordagem positiva da contabilidade; e, por fim, sob o aspecto econométrico, ao método generalizado dos momentos sistêmico (GMM-sis). Obtiveram-se dados públicos e próprios do Banco Central do Brasil, relativos a 102 bancos, os quais foram tratados para contemplar os efeitos de escala das instituições por meio de normalizações pelos ativos totais e créditos totais, onde aplicável e, também, os efeitos inflacionários, por meio do deflacionamento pelo IPCA. Nos resultados obtidos, foram encontrados indícios da existência da prática de disciplina de mercado por parte dos depositantes, conforme estudos já realizados no Brasil. Também foram encontrados indícios de que a prática de manipulação contábil efetuada por meio das acumulações contábeis discricionárias tem influência no exercício da disciplina de mercado, no sentido de reduzir as taxas de juros negociadas entre os bancos e os depositantes, ocasionando transferência de renda dos depositantes para os bancos. Isso significa que os gestores dos bancos logram êxito ao manipularem os resultados contábeis, por meio da utilização das acumulações contábeis discricionárias, e iludem os depositantes ao obterem taxas de juros inferiores às que deveriam ser pagas. Isto sugere que o mercado não é eficiente para tratar as informações contábeis publicadas pelos bancos. / When the depositors invest their money in the banks they delegate the monitoring function of the borrowers to the bank and can concentrate their efforts in monitoring the banks. The market discipline ex-post occurs in the event of the bank taking excessive risks and, knowing that, the depositors can act in the sense of disciplining the banks by requiring greater interest rates or withdrawing their deposits. The market discipline ex-ante occurs when the bank managers, knowing the consequences of assuming excessive risks, decide not take them. One of the vehicles of information to exercise such monitoring, and subside the actions to discipline the banks, are the accounting reports periodically published. The use of the accounting principles allows the managers to calculate the accruals discretionary. This possibility facilitates the use of the discretionarity in an opportunistic way, known in the literature as accounting manipulation / earnings management, with the objective to mislead the user of accounting information and obtain benefits to the bank or to its managers. The objective of this study is to verify the existence of empirical evidence that the discretionary accruals influence the exercise of the market discipline practiced by the depositors of Brazilian banks. The study separates the accounting accruals non-discretionary and discretionary using the variables of allowance and provision for loan losses, outstanding loans and its changes, non-performing credits and its changes, and credit write-offs. Also, it innovates by considering the risks of credit operations through the use of the loans interest rate as credits risk proxy. It utilizes econometric models to evaluate the influence of the discretionary accruals in the market discipline, by using variables of the deposits interest rates and volume changes, leverage index, provision for loan losses, payroll expenses, the ratio services revenue and other administrative expenses, return on assets and its deviation from sample average and other control variables. The theoretical approach utilizes the theory of delegate monitoring in the economics aspects, the positive accounting approach in the accounting aspects, and the systemic generalized method of moments (GMM-sis) in the econometric aspects. Banco Central do Brasils public and private data on 102 banks was used and processed to contemplate institutions scale effects, which were normalized by dividing them by total assets or by total loans where applicable and, to contemplate the inflations aspects, by deflating the data by consumer price index, IPCA. And in fact it were found evidence in the results obtained that there is a depositors market discipline practice, confirming studies done in Brazil, and that the accounting manipulation, through discretionary accruals, influence the market discipline in the sense of lowering the interest rates negotiated between the banks and the depositors, and thus allowing a transfer of wealth between them. This means that the banks managers are successful in manipulating the accounting results through discretionary accruals and mislead the depositors, which get interest rates lower than should be paid. This suggests that the market is not efficient to process the banks published accounting information.

En 1850, la banque Lehman Brothers est créée. Cette institution est considérée comme l’une des banques les plus prestigieuses du secteur bancaire international jusqu’au 15 septembre 2008. De cette faillite, les uns se souviennent d’une comparaison avec le jeudi noir de 1929, les autres analysent les causes d’une défaillance systémique des établissements bancaires. Les crises bancaires sont des phénomènes économiques récurrents. Elles entrainent des vagues de licenciements, la perte d’une épargne, le retrait des investisseurs, le frein du développement des économies nationales.Gérer le risque de défaillance bancaire oblige à connaître les acteurs et le fonctionnement du système bancaire. A travers un prisme volontairement historique, le développement de la norme supervisant ce secteur économique est mis en évidence. Sans solution de prévention contre les faillites, la quête est vaine. Pour ce faire, la puissance publique contraint les établissements bancaires à adapter leurs structures aux opérations spéculatives et à se doter de fonds propres. Parallèlement, des solutions doivent limiter les conflits d’intérêts issus des rémunérations du risque financier et de l’interdépendance des banques et des agences de notation. Sans prévention des risques, un traitement proportionné est la seule solution aux défaillances. Cette finalité laisse supposer l’application d’une norme relevant du droit commun. En effet, une banque en faillite peut être liquidée. Néanmoins, les enjeux financiers et l’internationalisation des relations interbancaires contraignent les Etats à développer un traitement de résolution unique. Dérogeant aux normes de droit commun, le traitement des défaillances résulte de procédures extra-judiciaires spéciales. Elles mettent en place des dispositifs efficaces rétablissant la viabilité de l’entité économique, conservant la stabilité du système bancaire et garantissant l’épargne des clients. Cette analyse des défaillances bancaires menée par l’auteur vise à considérer un phénomène économique juridiquement encadré par un droit autonome et éviter la survenance du risque de défaut. / In 1850, Lehman Brothers was created. This institution is considered as one of the most prestigious banks of the international banking sector until September 15, 2008. Some people compared this bankruptcy with the Black Thursday of 1929 whereas the others analyse the causes of a bank institutions systemic failure. Bank crisis is a recurrent economic phenomenon. It leads to waves of redundancies, loss of savings, withdrawal of investors, and brake of national economies development.Managing the risk of a bank failure requires the knowledge of the players and the bank system functioning. Through a deliberate historical prism, the development of the standard overseeing this economic sector is highlighted. Without a solution of prevention against bankruptcy, the quest is futile. To do this, the public authorities force banks to adapt their structures to protect themselves from speculative operations and to acquire their own funds. At the same time, some solutions are to take into account to limit conflicts of interest arising from the financial risk remuneration and the interdependence of banks and rating agencies. In the absence of risk prevention, a treatment in proportion is the only solution to failures. This purpose suggests the application of a standard under common law. Indeed, a bankruptcy leads to liquidation. Nevertheless, the financial stakes and the internationalization of the interbank relations force the States to develop a single resolution treatment. In going against the ordinary law rules common law norms, the treatment of the bank failures results from special extra-judicial procedures. These procedures put in place effective mechanisms that restore the viability of the economic entity and contribute to maintain the stability of the bank system and to guarantee the savings of customers. This analysis of bank failures led by the author aims to consider an economic phenomenon legally governed by an autonomous law and to avoid the occurrence of the payment default risk.

The thesis analyses and compares the economies of Spain and Ireland in the run up to and during the current economic and financial crisis. Firstly, the focus is on the pre-crisis period since the mid 90's, the causes and extent of the price bubble on the property markets, the caracter of lending boom and the indebtedness of the private sector. The end of the lending boom and conjuncture on the real estate markets in 2006-2007 had strong impact on real economy and the financial sector. Both countries currently pass through a three-level crisis: economic, banking and debt crisis. The aim of the thesis is to examine their causes, evolution and causal links. The paper also illustrates future perspectives of both countries in context of the membership in EMU and possible solutions to their current situation.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Paulo Roberto Piccina Amora.pdf: 936464 bytes, checksum: b0c8df6bc6ed1643cbc76529503b3ea4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-05-29 / This paper discusses some ideas and different opinions about recent systemic banking crises. The study builds a broad framework of this episodes pointing issues like the nature of banking crises; the actions and the economic policies put in place by governments to promote the settlement of the banking crises of Chile (in the 1980s) and Japan (in the 1990s); the pragmatic and static point of view of the International Monetary Fund about the recent banking crises / Este trabalho analisa e discute idéias e pontos de vista distintos em relação às crises bancárias sistêmicas recentes. O estudo elabora um quadro bem amplo dos episódios dessa natureza examinando questões como a natureza das crises bancárias; as ações e os mecanismos de intervenção econômica postos em prática pelos governos nacionais para promover o equacionamento das crises bancárias do Chile (na década de 1980) e do Japão (na década de 1990); a visão pragmática e tecnicista das crises bancárias recentes segundo os economistas do Fundo Monetário Internacional

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Paulo_Fugulin_11072006.pdf: 745863 bytes, checksum: 71ba616edcdad128b66c294b2af25298 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-05-23 / The strong growth of the Chilean economy in last the twenty years is related to the way the problems generated from the serious currency and financial crisis of 1981-84 were handled. The economic debate emphasized the responsible factors for the catastrophe, in special the unfortunate combination of the opening of the capital account, regulatory and institutional policies mistakes and deficiencies. Less attention was given to the management process and the overcoming of the crisis, based on the ample intervention of the public sector. The essay concentrates in the analysis of the state intervention towards the Chilean crisis, emphasizing its causes and discussing the instruments used and the incurred costs. It also sheds light on the conditions that had allowed the State s agility and the autonomy to distribute costs and concentrate losses, a process that differed from the stereotyped image of Chile as an omen of the Minimum State in Latin America / O vigoroso crescimento da economia chilena nos últimos vinte anos está ligado à forma como foram equacionados os problemas gerados pela grave crise cambial e financeira de 1981-84. O debate econômico enfatizou os fatores responsáveis pela catástrofe, em especial a combinação nefasta entre ampla abertura da conta de capitais, equívocos de política econômica e deficiências regulatórias e institucionais. Menos atenção foi dada ao processo de gerenciamento e superação da crise, baseado na ampla intervenção do setor público. O trabalho se concentra na análise da intervenção estatal na crise chilena, destacando suas causas e discutindo os instrumentos utilizados e os custos incorridos. Também se preocupa em apontar as condições que permitiram a agilidade e a autonomia do Estado para distribuir custos e concentrar perdas e favorecimentos, processo que diverge da imagem estereotipada do Chile como arauto do Estado-Mínimo na América Latina

Depuis son éruption en septembre 2009, la crise de la zone euro a été au centre de l'attention des économistes et des décideurs politiques. L'objectif principal de cette thèse est de développer des modèles théoriques pertinents afin d'analyser les facteurs à l'origine de la crise jumelle des banques et de la dette souveraine dans une union monétaire avec une architecture institutionnelle globalement similaire de l'Union économique et monétaire avant 2012. Tout en mettant l'accent sur la vulnérabilité financière, nous explorons la relation entre le secteur bancaire, l'économie réelle et le budget du gouvernement dans le contexte d 'une union monétaire. Cette thèse se compose de quatre modèles théoriques de la crise bancaire, avec le premier illustrant la crise financière qui avait éclaté en 2008 dans les petites économies européennes en dehors de l 'UEM et les trois modèles suivants élucidant la situation de crise dans la zone euro en2009 jusqu'en 2012. / In this Ph. D. thesis, we analyze the conditions for the emergence and the aggravation of the recent crisis in Europe from 2008 to 2012. The major objective of this Ph. D. thesis is to develop theoretical models which will be effective in investigating the twin banking and sovereign debt crises in a monetary union with a broadly similar institutional design to the EMU before 2012. Different from 'traditional' financial crisis models that shed light on the role of the central bank in crisis policy response, the models developed in this thesis investigate and underline the importance of fiscal crisis management. White accentuating financial vulnerability, we explore the relationship between the banking sector, the realeconomy and the public budget in the context of a monetary union. This thesis consists of four theoretical models of the banking crisis, with the first framework depicting the financial crisis which burst in 2008 in small European economies outside the EMU and the next three models elucidating the crisis situation in the Eurozone from early 2009 until August 2012.

This diploma thesis focuses on indicators of currency and banking crises and examines their reliability. The analysis is performed on real economic events - the monetary crisis analysiswill be related to the crisis in Russia in 1998 and in the banking crisis we will examine events in Ireland in 2008-2010. In case of both crises we will try to make a strict definition because the economic literature nor any law regulation do not offer any, whereas for time series analysis is the determination of the outbreak and the end of the crisis crucial. We also look at the change in the understanding of the financial crisis, from the concept of monetary, banking and debt crises typical for the end of the last century and gradually transitioning to a comprehensive approach to the financial crisis as a systemic crisis that represents the current direction of economic thought. The main objective is to analyze the reliability of currency crisis and banking crises indicators on the example of selected economic events. We will try to follow the development of indicators within a few years and look for the development trend, predicting the impending problems. There are also described some methodological problems concerning the research of indicators of financial crises. In the end we will have a comparison of both countries and emphasize what they have in common and what is different.

In my graduation theses I deal with the eurozone crisis. This crisis can be seen in relation to the causes of it, as a result of many factors of varying importance - the global financial and economic crisis, the State lavishness, the construction of EMU, etc. Eurozone crisis can however be also seen in the inability of states to agree on the future appearance of the eurozone. In the first two chapters I analyze the first mentioned approach, namely financial and debt crisis with regard to their expensiveness. In detail I attend to interconnection of banking and debt crisis and the role of the ECB. In the second part I come to the principal point of my work, another approach to the crisis, namely the attitude of Germany to address problems of EMU. Germany therefore, that as the largest economy of EMU it forms it the most, but also carries the largest share of costs. I will analyze both the priorities of Germany, and his approach to promoted measures from the fiscal compact to Eurobonds. Eventually, through an analysis of the attitudes of actors in Germany - the German Government, the political opposition, the constitutional court, the Bundesbank, the German academics, public opinion - I come to a conclusion that the position of Germany is divided, however, at least for political representation I can not yet speak of fundamental contradictions. But it seems that the German population begins to differ in this way from their political representatives. The future will show us how serious this discrepancy will be and what results will it bring.

[pt] Em 2003, o Congresso Nacional aprovou uma lei regulamentando o crédito consignado, o que causou um grande impacto no crédito a pessoas físicas. No capítulo 1, forneço evidências que o crédito consignado teve um efeito pequeno, mas não desprezível, nas escolhas ocupacionais. Em particular, eu encontro evidências que o crédito consignado está associado positivamente com escolhas ocupacionais com características de empreendedorismo. Esse efeito é mais forte em indivíduos que estão numa faixa etária onde dificilmente será um aposentado e residem em famílias com aposentados e pensionistas, o que sugere a existência de mecanismos de transferência intra-familiares. No Capítulo 2, eu apresento evidências de que o crédito consignado tem um efeito pequeno, mas não desprezível, nos indicadores de saúde dos idosos. Em particular, o crédito consignado está: 1) negativamente associado com as taxas de mortalidade nas faixas etárias de 60 a 69 anos e 70 a 79 anos. 2) negativamente associado com indices de dificuldades físicas. Esse efeito é maior em famílias com menor renda. 3) positivamente associado com um número de consultas médicas por ano. Usando uma abordagem diff-diff, encontro evidência de que um possível mecanismo é um aumento de gastos com saúde nas famílias com maior proporção de ganhos oriundos de aposentadorias nas suas rendas. / [en] In 2003, the Brazilian Congress passed a law regulating payroll lending, which had a large impact on consumer lending (Coelho et al [2011]). In Chapter 1, I present evidence that that payroll lending had a small but non-negligible impact on occupational choice. In particular I find that payroll lending is positively associated with more entrepreneurial-like occupations. The effect is stronger for individuals in age ranges unlikely to have retirees in families with retirees or pensioners, suggesting that intra-family transfer mechanisms are operative. In Chapter 2, I present evidence that that payroll lending had a small but non-negligible impact on health outcome for elderly citizens. In particular, we find that Payroll Lending: 1) is negatively associated with death rates on age ranges of 60-69 and 70-79 years old; 2) is associated with less physical disabilities. The effect is stronger for individuals in families with lower incomes; 3) is associated with more medical consultations per year. Using a diff-diff approach, I also find evidence that one possible mechanism is more health care spending in families with more proportion of retirement benefits in their income.