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Three Essays on Dynamic Games with Incomplete Information and Strategic ComplementaritiesYi, Ming 07 May 2014 (has links)
This dissertation consists of three essays that adopt both theoretical and empirical methods of analysis to study certain economies in which the incomplete information and the strategic complementarities between players are important. Chapter 1 explains the topics discussed in the subsequent chapters and gives a brief survey on the literature.
In Chapter 2, I revise a traditional global game model by dividing the continuum of players into a group of speculators and a group of stakeholders. It is found that the uniqueness property remains in the new game. Then I extend the static game to a two-stage game and investigate the efficacies of certain label changing mechanisms proposed by the authority to stabilize the regime in the dynamic context. It is shown that a label changing mechanism allowing for downward social mobility may not work, whereas a label changing mechanism allowing for upward social mobility generally makes the regime more stable.
In Chapter 3, I add a speculator and an authority to a bank-run model to investigate how the speculator endangers a business or an economy, and what the authority can do about it. In particular, I show that the speculator can increase the financial system's vulnerability by serving as a coordinating device for the investors and thus triggering the crisis. It is further shown that deterring the speculator may not undo the speculator's impact because of multiplicity problem; rewarding holding investors is useless; and eliminating the preemption motives among investors works given enough effort. A discussion of the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the IMF's role in it is also included.
Chapter 4 develops a repeated beauty-contest game to investigate the effect of previous winners' actions on the spread of subsequent players' actions. I first characterize the unique equilibrium of the game. Then I focus on the equilibrium dynamics of several variances depicting different forms of action variability. It is found that whether or not a specific variance diminishes over time depends on the relative precision of public and private signals. To illustrate the theoretical results, I conduct an empirical study on the Miss Korea contest. It is found that the contestants' faces have been converging to the ``true beauty'' overall, but diverging from each other over the last 20 years. Chapter 5 concludes. / Ph. D.
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Mathematical Formulation and Optimization : Navigating Portfolio Complexity with Cardinality ConstraintsJohansson Swegmark, Markus, Stål, Filip January 2024 (has links)
This paper explores strategies in portfolio optimization, focusing on integrating mean-variance optimization (MVO) frameworks with cardinality constraints to enhance investment decision-making. Using a combination of quadratic programming and mixed-integer linear programming, the Gurobi optimizer handles complex constraints and achieves computational solutions. The study compares two mathematical formulations of the cardinality constraint: the Complementary Model and the Big M Model. As cardinality increased, risk decreased exponentially, converging at higher cardinalities. This behavior aligns with the theory of risk reduction through diversification. Additionally, despite initial expectations, both models performed similarly in terms of root relaxation risk and execution time due to Gurobi's presolve transformation of the Complementary Model into the Big M Model. Root relaxation risks were identical while execution times varied slightly without a consistent trend, underscoring the Big M Model's versatility and highlighting the limitations of the Complementary Model.
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Artificiell intelligens - potentiell ersättare tillredovisningsekonom inom kassaflödesanalys? : En kvantitativ studie om hur artificiell intelligens påverkar aktörer inomredovisningsbranschen.Arnghiran, Methawat, Afzali, Shukrullah January 2024 (has links)
Technology and advanced systems are developed to streamline work processes and reducecosts for businesses. In the accounting industry, there is a constant pursuit of newopportunities to conduct work more efficiently. Artificial intelligence presents both challengesand opportunities for industries to varying degrees, instigating a new chapter for businesses toincrease its capabilities. Similar to previous stages in the accounting industry where newtechnology was introduced. Replacing older methods with newer and more efficient ones, AIis aimed to change the accounting industry in a whole new phase.This study is applying a quantitative approach to study the potential impact of artificialintelligence on the accounting industry, particularly focusing on individuals who arespecialized in cash flow analysis. The study aims to enlighten factors that are influencing AIcapabilities and the ability of accounting professionals to work with cash flow analysis, aswell as the extent to which artificial intelligence poses a threat.Artificial intelligence has demonstrated the ability to work systematically, similar to humans,which would potentially replace tasks traditionally performed by humans. This factor presentschallenges for many employees in the accounting industry, especially those working with cashflow analysis. For inexperienced and low-skilled individuals working in the accountingindustry, AI poses significant challenges in securing their employment, leading to a decline inemployment rates and prioritizing specialization for those wishing to remain in their roles.KeywordsAccounting, cash flow analysis, complementarity factor, artificial intelligence.3 / Teknologi och avancerade system skapas för att underlätta arbetsprocesser och minskakostnaderna för företag. Inom redovisningsbranschen är det en ständig utveckling att finnanya möjligheter för att effektivare bedriva sina arbete. Artificiell intelligens utgör utmaningaroch möjligheter för branscher i olika utsträckning, och som en ny teknik skapar den ett nyttkapitel för företag att utnyttja dess funktioner. Det finns sedan i tidigare skede inomredovisningsbranschen där ny teknik som till exempel Excel och andra bokföringsprograminförts. Till följd av detta lämnades den gamla arbetsmetod mot den nyare och effektivarearbetsmetod som till exempel från kassaböcker till datorprogram.I denna studie appliceras en kvantitativ enkätundersökningsmetod. Syftet är att undersöka hurartificiell intelligens kommer att påverka redovisningsbranschen och individer som arbetarinom redovisningsbranschen med inriktning mot den finansiella rapportens kassaflödesanalys.Studien avser belysa faktorer som påverkar AI:s förmågor samt redovisningsekonomernasförmåga att arbeta med kassaflödesanalys och vilken utsträckning artificiell intelligens utgörett hot eller stöd.Artificiell intelligens visade sig att ha en förmåga att arbeta systematiskt i sammaförhållningssätt som människor. Det kan komma in och ersätta den typen arbete för debefintliga systematiska arbeten som utförs av människor. AI utgör därför en stor utmaning förmånga yngre oerfarna som är lågutbildade för att säkerställa sina platser i branschen. De ungaoch oerfarna samt lågutbildade individer som arbetar i redovisningsbranschen har svårt atthitta en betydlig befattning som återspeglar deras förmågor på grund av brist på behov avanställda efter implementering av automatiseringar. Det gör att anställningsgraden sjunker ochspecialiseringar blir prioritet för de som önskar vara kvar i sin befattning.
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Angst vor dem Geist? : Pneumatologie und Mission : eine Verhaltnisbestimmung vor dem Hintergrund neuerer Mennonitischer GeschichteSchowalter, Ralf 11 1900 (has links)
Part 2 of the present paper delineates the position of the Holy Spirit (respectively of
pneumatology) in the history of the church! of theology in general as well as in the present
missiology in particular.
Some aspects in the work of the Holy Spirit which are relevant to mission are named
separately and explained.
Part 3 looks at the example of the revival among the Mennonites in Southern Russia around
1860. Therefore, first the early Anabaptists of the 16th century are described in their relation
to the Holy Spirit. After this, the relation of the Mennonites in Russia to the Holy Spirit
(mainly in the events around the revival of 1860) is depicted.
Positive and negative results of the revival are shown.
Part 4 combines the results of the previous parts of the paper and shows (in eight points) a
wholesome and balanced way of mission and church for bapto - mennonite churches of today. / Christian Spirituality, Church History & Missiology / (M. Th. Missiology))
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Computational Models for Renewable Energy Target Achievement & Policy AnalysisSchell, Kristen R. 01 May 2016 (has links)
To date, over 84% of countries worldwide have renewable energy targets (RET), requiring that a certain amount of electricity be produced from renewable sources by a target date. Despite the worldwide prevalence of these policies, little research has been conducted on ex-ante RET policy analysis. In an effort to move toward evidence-based policymaking, this thesis develops computational models to assess the tradeoffs associated with alternatives for both RET achievement and RET policy formulation, including the option of creating renewable energy credit (REC) markets to facilitate meeting an RET goal. A mixed integer linear program (MILP), a probabilistic cost prediction model and a mixed complementarity problem (MCP) serve as the theoretical bases for the RET alternative and policy formulation analyses. From these models it was found, inter alia, that RET goals set too low run the risk of creating technological lock-in and could inhibit achievement of higher goals; probabilistic cost predictions give decision-makers essential risk information, when cost estimation is an integral part of alternatives assessment; and though REC markets may facilitate RET achievement, including REC markets in an RET policy formulation may not result in the lowest possible greenhouse gas emissions (GHG).
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Essays on complementarity : organizational and market changes in agriculture / Essais sur la complémentarité : changements organisationnels et de marché en agricultureRaza, Saqlain 29 January 2014 (has links)
Cette thèse vise à tester pour l’existence d’effet de complémentarités entre différentes activités économiques dans le secteur agricole. Pour cela, nous mobilisons les deux approches que proposent la littérature, à savoir l’approche par la productivité et l’approche par l’adoption. Nous commençons par une revue de la littérature sur l’économie de la complémentarité, en nous focalisant sur ces deux approches de la complémentarité et ses modèles empiriques. Nous proposons ensuite trois analyses empiriques permettant de tester ces modèles. La première explore les déterminants du choix de marque et/ou de signes des qualité par les petites coopératives agricoles françaises, avec un focus particulier sur la coexistence de ces deux signes. La seconde fournit un test direct de complémentarité entre labels et marques en recourant à l’approche par l’adoption. En estimant un probit multinomial, il est en effet possible de séparer l’effet de complémentarité de celui de l’hétérogénéité inobservable. La troisième introduit l’approche par la productivité, en sus de l’approche par l’adoption, pour tester de cet eet de complémentarité dans les systèmes de polyculture élevage adoptés par les petits exploitants de la province du Pendjab au Pakistan. / The main objective of this thesis is to test for complementarity between different economic activities in agriculture. To do this, we have recourse to the two approaches proposed by the literature, i.e. the productivity approach and the adoption approach. First, we review the economics of complementarity and analyze the different empirical models to test for complementarity. Then, we propose three empirical analyses testing these models. The first examine closely the drivers of the branding and labeling strategies from French small agricultural co-operatives, with a focus on the coexistence of both quality signals. The second directly test for complementarity between branding and labeling using the adoption approach, by estimating a multinomal probit. This allow us to separate what is really due to complementarity and what is caused by unobserved heterogeneity. Third, in addition to adoption approach, we test for complementarity using a productivity approach in the mixed farming systems adopted by smallholder farmers in Punjab, Pakistan.
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Approches basées sur DCA pour la programmation mathématique avec des contraintes d'équilibre / DCA based Approaches for Mathematical Programs with Equilibrium ConstraintsNguyen, Thi Minh Tam 10 September 2018 (has links)
Dans cette thèse, nous étudions des approches basées sur la programmation DC (Difference of Convex functions) et DCA (DC Algorithm) pour la programmation mathématique avec des contraintes d'équilibre, notée MPEC (Mathematical Programming with Equilibrum Constraints en anglais). Etant un sujet classique et difficile de la programmation mathématique et de la recherche opérationnelle, et de par ses diverses applications importantes, MPEC a attiré l'attention de nombreux chercheurs depuis plusieurs années. La thèse se compose de quatre chapitres principaux. Le chapitre 2 étudie une classe de programmes mathématiques avec des contraintes de complémentarité linéaire. En utilisant quatre fonctions de pénalité, nous reformulons le problème considéré comme des problèmes DC standard, i.e minimisation d'une fonction DC sous les contraintes convexes. Nous développons ensuite des algorithmes appropriés basés sur DCA pour résoudre les problèmes DC résultants. Deux d'entre eux sont reformulés encore sous la forme des problèmes DC généraux (i.e. minimisation d'une fonction DC sous des contraintes DC) pour que les sous-problèmes convexes dans DCA soient plus faciles à résoudre. Après la conception de DCA pour le problème considéré, nous développons ces schémas DCA pour deux cas particuliers: la programmation quadratique avec des contraintes de complémentarité linéaire, et le problème de complémentarité aux valeurs propres. Le chapitre 3 aborde une classe de programmes mathématiques avec des contraintes d'inégalité variationnelle. Nous utilisons une technique de pénalisation pour reformuler le problème considéré comme un programme DC. Une variante de DCA et sa version accélérée sont proposées pour résoudre ce programme DC. Comme application, nous résolvons le problème de détermination du prix de péages dans un réseau de transport avec des demandes fixes (" the second-best toll pricing problem with fixed demands" en anglais). Le chapitre 4 se concentre sur une classe de problèmes d'optimisation à deux niveaux avec des variables binaires dans le niveau supérieur. En utilisant une fonction de pénalité exacte, nous reformulons le problème considéré comme un programme DC standard pour lequel nous développons un algorithme efficace basé sur DCA. Nous appliquons l'algorithme proposé pour résoudre le problème d'interdiction de flot maximum dans un réseau ("maximum flow network interdiction problem" en anglais). Dans le chapitre 5, nous nous intéressons au problème de conception de réseau d'équilibre continu ("continuous equilibrium network design problem" en anglais). Il est modélisé sous forme d'un programme mathématique avec des contraintes de complémentarité, brièvement nommé MPCC (Mathematical Program with Complementarity Constraints en anglais). Nous reformulons ce problème MPCC comme un programme DC général et proposons un schéma DCA approprié pour le problème résultant / In this dissertation, we investigate approaches based on DC (Difference of Convex functions) programming and DCA (DC Algorithm) for mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints. Being a classical and challenging topic of nonconvex optimization, and because of its many important applications, mathematical programming with equilibrium constraints has attracted the attention of many researchers since many years. The dissertation consists of four main chapters. Chapter 2 studies a class of mathematical programs with linear complementarity constraints. By using four penalty functions, we reformulate the considered problem as standard DC programs, i.e. minimizing a DC function on a convex set. The appropriate DCA schemes are developed to solve these four DC programs. Two among them are reformulated again as general DC programs (i.e. minimizing a DC function under DC constraints) in order that the convex subproblems in DCA are easier to solve. After designing DCA for the considered problem, we show how to develop these DCA schemes for solving the quadratic problem with linear complementarity constraints and the asymmetric eigenvalue complementarity problem. Chapter 3 addresses a class of mathematical programs with variational inequality constraints. We use a penalty technique to recast the considered problem as a DC program. A variant of DCA and its accelerated version are proposed to solve this DC program. As an application, we tackle the second-best toll pricing problem with fixed demands. Chapter 4 focuses on a class of bilevel optimization problems with binary upper level variables. By using an exact penalty function, we express the bilevel problem as a standard DC program for which an efficient DCA scheme is developed. We apply the proposed algorithm to solve a maximum flow network interdiction problem. In chapter 5, we are interested in the continuous equilibrium network design problem. It was formulated as a Mathematical Program with Complementarity Constraints (MPCC). We reformulate this MPCC problem as a general DC program and then propose a suitable DCA scheme for the resulting problem
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Commande optimale des systèmes de complémentarité linéaires / Optimal control of linear complementarity systemsVieira, Alexandre 25 September 2018 (has links)
Cette thèse se concentre sur la commande optimale des systèmes de complémentarité linéaire (notés LCS). Les LCS sont des systèmes dynamiques définis par des équations différentielles algébriques (ÉDA), où une des variables est définie par un problème de complémentarité linéaire.Ces systèmes se retrouvent dans la modélisation de nombreux phénomènes, tels que les équilibres dynamiques de Nash, les systèmes dynamiques hybrides ou encore la modélisation de circuits électriques. Les propriétés des solutions à ces ÉDA dépendent essentiellement de propriétés que doit vérifier la matrice D présente dans la complémentarité.Ces contraintes de complémentarité posent des problèmes à deux niveaux. Premièrement, l’analyse de ces systèmes dynamiques font souvent appel à des outils pointus, et leurs études laissent encore des questions non résolues. Deuxièmement, la commande optimale pour ces systèmes pose des soucis à cause d’une part de présence éventuelle de l’état dans les contraintes, et d’autre part une violation assurée des qualifications des contraintes qui sont une hypothèse récurrente des problèmes d’optimisation.La recherche de ce manuscrit se concentre sur la commande optimale de ces systèmes. On s’intéresse principalement à la commande quadratique (minimisation d’une fonctionnelle quadratique en l’état et la commande), et à la commande temps minimal. Les résultats se concentrent sur deux pans: d’un côté, on opère une approche analytique du problème afin de trouver des conditions nécessaires d’optimalité (si possible, on démontre qu’elles sont suffisantes) ; dans un deuxième temps, une approche numérique est effectuée, avec le soucis d’obtenir des résultats numériques précis de manière rapide. / This thesis focuses on the optimal control of Linear Complementarity Systems (LCS). LCS are dynamical systems defined through Differential Algebraic Equations (DAE), where one of the variable is defined by a Linear Complementarity Problem.These systems can be found in the modeling of various phenomena, as Nash equilibria, hybrid dynamical systems or modeling of electrical circuits. Properties of the solution to these DAE essentially depend on properties that the matrix D in the complementarity must meet. These complementarity constraints induce two different challenges. First, the analysis of these dynamical systems often use state of the art tools, and their study still has some unansweredquestions. Second, the optimal control of these systems causes troubles due to on one hand the presence of the state in the constraints, on the other hand the violation of Constraint Qualifications, that are a recurring hypothesis for optimisation problems.The research presented in this manuscript focuses on the optimal control of these systems. We mainly focus on the quadratic optimal control problem (minimisation of a quadratic functional involving the state and the control), and the minimal time control. The results present two different aspects: first, we start with an analytical approach in order to find necessary conditions of optimality (if possible, these conditions are proved to be sufficient); secondly, a numerical approach is tackled, with the aim of getting precise results with a reduced computational time.
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Who Gets Selected? : A quantitative analysis exploring the effect of ideology and electoral vulnerability on the ballot placement of ethnic minority women candidatesGisgård, Hannah January 2018 (has links)
This quantitative study aims to investigate the mechanisms for ballot placement of underrepresented groups by examining how ideology and electoral vulnerability affect the ballot placement of ethnic minority women candidates in the case of the election to the Swedish Riksdag in 2018. Four hypotheses for the relationship are set: that the Red-Greenswillputethnicminoritywomencandidates higherupontheirballots;that the Alliance will put ethnic minority women candidates higher up on their ballots; that electoral vulnerability will have a stronger effect on the Red-Greens’ ballot placement of ethnic minority women candidates; that electoral vulnerability will have the same or no effect on the Red-Greens’ and the Alliance’s ballot placement of ethnic minority women candidates. The results show a significant relationship between ideology and ballot placement of ethnic minority women candidates but no effect of electoral vulnerability. The conclusion is therefore that the Red-Greens are more likely to put ethnic minority women higher up on their ballots compared to the Alliance, and that it does not matter if a party belongs to the Red-Greens or the Alliance, because if the party is at risk of electoral defeat the effect of electoral vulnerability on the ballot placement of ethnic minority women candidates will be the same in both blocs.
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Evaluating the Use of Surrogates of Marine Mammal Species Representation in Biodiversity Conservation PlanningJanuary 2019 (has links)
abstract: Biodiversity is required to guarantee proper ecosystem structure and function. However, increasing anthropogenic threats are causing biodiversity loss around the world at an unprecedented rate, in what has been deemed the sixth mass extinction. To counteract this crisis, conservationists seek to improve the methods used in the design and implementation of protected areas, which help mitigate the impacts of human activities on species. Marine mammals are ecosystem engineers and important indicator species of ocean and human wellbeing. They are also disproportionally less known and more threatened than terrestrial mammals. Therefore, surrogates of biodiversity must be used to maximize their representation in conservation planning. Some of the most effective surrogates of biodiversity known have only been tested in terrestrial systems. Here I test complementarity, rarity, and environmental diversity as potential surrogates of marine mammal representation at the global scale, and compare their performance against species richness, which is the most popular surrogate used to date. I also present the first map of marine mammal complementarity, and assess its relationship with environmental variables to determine if environmental factors could also be used as surrogates. Lastly, I determine the global complementarity-based hotspots of marine mammal biodiversity, and compare their distributions against current marine protected area coverage and exposure to global indices of human threats, to elucidate the effectiveness of current conservation efforts. Results show that complementarity, rarity, and environmental diversity are all efficient surrogates, as they outcompete species richness in maximizing marine mammal species representation when solving the minimum-set coverage problem. Results also show that sea surface temperature, density, and bathymetry are the top environmental variables most associated with complementarity of marine mammals. Finally, gap analyses show that marine mammals are overall poorly protected, yet moderately exposed to hotspots of cumulative human impacts. The wide distribution of marine mammals justify global studies like the ones here presented, to determine the best strategy for their protection. Overall, my findings show that less popular surrogates of biodiversity are more effective for marine mammals and should be considered in their management, and that the expansion of protected areas in their most important habitats should be prioritized. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Biology 2019
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