Orientador: Mara de Andrade Marinho / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Agrícola / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-18T01:24:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lourenco_LeonardoSenede_D.pdf: 3534981 bytes, checksum: 56657d118945f022f1865ecb7f5ee251 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: Erosão é um tema complexo que envolve aspectos físicos, ambientais, econômicos, sociais e políticos. Nos últimos 100 anos de historia, o principal enfoque da pesquisa em erosão esteve centrado principalmente nos aspectos físicos e só mais recentemente o foco se ampliou, incluindo os aspectos ambientais, econômicos e sociais. Partindo do pressuposto de que é possível o uso conjugado de métodos de consulta Ad-Hoc e de Análise Multicriterial, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo geral empregar essa abordagem no desenvolvimento de uma proposição metodológica para avaliação da suscetibilidade dos solos à erosão. Um objetivo específico foi utilizar dados de rotina de perfis de solos disponíveis nos relatórios dos levantamentos pedológicos. Para desenvolvimento de função classificatória da suscetibilidade à erosão, foram aplicados os métodos multicriteriais referidos por ELECTRE II, CP e CGT, considerando 4 cenários de pesos: media geométrica, máximo, mínimo e moda. Para desenvolvimento de função agregativa e de um indicador de suscetibilidade à erosão (Ise), foi utilizado o método MAVT via ajustes de funções de valores, que foram aplicadas aos dados secundários de solos. Os resultados da aplicação dos métodos ELECTRE II, CP e CGT foram convergentes, com uma correlação média de 0,854, destacando-se a ordem dos NEOSSOLOS (maior suscetibilidade) e a dos ORGANOSSOLOS (menor suscetibilidade). O indicador de suscetibilidade à erosão qualificou um PLINTOSSOLO PETRICO como sendo o mais suscetível (Ise= 57,4%) e um ORGANOSSOLO HAPLICO como sendo o menos suscetível à erosão (Ise= 34,5%). Conclui-se que a metodologia desenvolvida permitiu avaliar a suscetibilidade do solo à erosão sob diferentes aspectos (classificador e indicador de suscetibilidade) e níveis de generalização taxonômica, com uso de dados secundários / Abstract: Erosion is a complex theme which involves physical, environmental, social, and political aspects. For the last 100 years, the central goal of the research in this area was the physical aspects of soil erosion, and only more recently this focus has been distended to include the environmental, economical and social aspects. From the assumption that is possible to combine Ad-Hoc methods with Multicriterial Analysis, this work intended to employ that approach to develop a methodology for evaluating the soil susceptibility to erosion. A specific purpose was to use legacy data available on soil surveys reports. To develop a classificatory function of the soil susceptibility to erosion, the ELECTRE II, CP e CGT multicriterials methods were applied considering four scenarios: geometrical average, maximum, minimum, and mode. To develop an aggregative function and an indicator of soil erosion susceptibility (Ise), it was employed the MAVT method via adjusting values functions, which were applied to the legacy soils data. The results acquired from the application of the ELECTRE II, CP and CGT methods were convergent, with an average correlation of 0,854, stressing NEOSSOLOS (major susceptibility) and ORGANOSSOLOS (minor susceptibility). The indicator of soil erosion susceptibility qualified a PLINTOSSOLO PETRICO as being the most susceptible (Ise= 57,4%) and an ORGANOSSOLO HAPLICO as being the least susceptible (Ise= 34,5%). In conclusion, the developed methodology allowed to evaluate soil susceptibility to erosion in relation to different aspects (classificatory and susceptibility indicator) and levels of taxonomic generalization, with use of legacy data / Doutorado / Agua e Solo / Doutor em Engenharia Agrícola

A necessidade crescente de atividades de manutenção em edificações habitadas, e sua inerente complexidade, tornam a adoção de métodos de gestão de extrema importância para a realização de obras com desempenho técnico e operacional eficientes. Assim, a presente pesquisa discute proposta de método para gestão de obras de manutenção de revestimentos de fachada, concebido em decorrência da necessidade de consolidação de técnicas eficientes para condução desse tipo de atividade. A pesquisa contempla uma fase inicial exploratória que aborda aspectos conceituais fundamentais e descreve relatos de casos acompanhados pelo autor em que as técnicas de gestão foram adotadas de forma não sistêmica, e cuja análise crítica gerou informações importantes para a elaboração da proposta. Em seguida o trabalho mostra a proposição inicial do método, elaborada a partir das discussões relatadas posteriormente na bibliografia e nas considerações oriundas da fase inicial exploratória. Para avaliação da proposta foi realizada uma validação interna de conteúdo, a partir de pesquisas orientadas com especialistas escolhidos mediante critérios de seleção pré-definidos, utilizando método Delphi. Como atividade complementar, foi ainda discutida a eficiência das ações propostas por meio de um estudo de caso prático. As respostas obtidas em ambos os casos indicaram a adequação das ações propostas, o que possibilitou a apresentação do método de gestão final consolidado, considerado cientificamente eficiente. / The increasing need for inherently complex maintenance activities in inhabited buildings makes the adoption of management methods a very important tool for the execution of technically and operationally efficient projects. This research presents the proposal of a method for the management of façade covering maintenance construction projects, conceived as a result of the need for the consolidation of efficient techniques to conduct this type of activity. The research starts with an exploratory phase that addresses fundamental conceptual aspects and describes cases where management techniques were not formally adopted. This critical analysis generated important information for the elaboration of the method. Then the work presents the initial proposal of the method, devised from the discussions subsequently reported in the literature and in the considerations from the initial exploratory phase. For the evaluation of the proposal, an internal validation of content was carried out by means of a guided poll with specialists chosen through pre defined selection criteria using the Delphi Method. As a complementary activity, a practical case study was done in order to assess the efficiency of the method. The feedback obtained in both cases indicated the appropriateness of the proposed actions, allowing the presentation of the final management method, considered to be scientifically efficient.

Orientador: Wagner dos Santos Oliveira / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Química / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-20T20:48:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FranchinideAlmeida_CarlaCarolinaCaliani_M.pdf: 9851478 bytes, checksum: cba3d3bd5a597c89f24fc14ad1d28c25 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: O desenvolvimento e a aplicação de novas propriedades de materiais e de novos materiais propriamente ditos, tem sido um grande objetivo dos pesquisadores. Estamos em uma etapa do conhecimento científico-tecnológico onde a nanotecnologia, em particular, está se tornando presente em todas as áreas da ciência e da tecnologia. Desta forma, os pesquisadores estão investigando maneiras de recorrerem à nanotecnologia em alta escala, determinando suas características a fim de utilizá-las adequadamente, proporcionando novos tipos de materiais. Uma das áreas de P&D em nanotecnologia, importantes nas atividades acadêmicas e industriais, está voltada para os materiais poliméricos, em nanocompósitos. Este trabalho teve como principal finalidade conhecer como a nanotecnologia se faz presente nos materiais poliméricos, recorrendo aos pesquisadores/especialistas na área, e investigar quais as possibilidades futuras de utilização destes novos materiais junto à sociedade como um todo, por meio da de prospecção tecnológica. Todavia, para uma prospecção adequada, neste caso determinado, é necessário a utilização de ferramentas próprias, para se obter uma resposta cujas possibilidades sejam próximas às reais. Recorreu-se aqui, à Metodologia Delphi, que utiliza conhecimento de especialistas em áreas de específicas, afim de obter dados através de questionários capazes de representar cenários futuros, num âmbito de probabilidades subjetivas, cujas respostas possam ser tratadas por métodos matemáticos / Abstract: The development and the applications of new properties of already known materials and new materials properly said, has been researchers' main objective. We are in a phase of scientific and technological knowledge where the nanotechnology is becoming present in all science and technology fields. Thus, the researchers are investigating ways to resort to the nanotechnology on a large scale, determining its characteristics in order to use them properly, providing new types of materials. One of the R&D fields in nanotechnology is focused on polymeric materials, in nanocomposites, which are present in academic and industrial activities. This study had as main objective to acquire the knowledge of how the nanotechnology is present in polymeric materials, resorting to researchers/ specialists in the field, to know which are the future possibilities of these new materials in the society, as a whole, through technological prospection. However, in order to obtain a prospection of the future in this determined case, it is necessary to use the appropriate tools, in order to obtain an answer which possibilities are close to the real ones. It was used the Delphi Method, which uses the specialists' knowledge in a specific area, in order to obtain data through questionnaires that may represent future scenarios, in an ambit of subjective probabilities, whose answers can be treated by mathematical methods / Mestrado / Ciencia e Tecnologia de Materiais / Mestra em Engenharia Química

Ce travail est une contribution au renforcement des capacités de recherche et de l'identification des stratégies et des perspectives afin de promouvoir une meilleure recherche en santé bucco-dentaire en Afrique grâce à la production de l'avis d'un panel d'experts lors d'une consultation Delphi. Ceci d'autant plus que les systèmes de santé bucco-dentaire et les connaissances scientifiques évoluent rapidement. Le continent africain est confronté à de nombreux défis parmi lesquels figurent le fardeau des maladies bucco-dentaires et les besoins élevés en soins des populations. Afin de satisfaire la demande en soins et de poser des actions de santé publique efficaces, les décideurs ont besoin d'outils, de capacités et d'informations pour évaluer et suivre les besoins de santé, choisir des stratégies d'intervention, des options politiques appropriées pour la conception de leurs propres stratégies en vue améliorer la performance des systèmes de soins bucco-dentaires. Dans ce contexte, il est nécessaire de concevoir une approche cohérente de la politique de santé bucco-dentaire dans la Région africaine ce qui implique une meilleure connaissance de la situation. Car l'avancement de l'Afrique est tributaire de sa capacité à générer, à adapter et à utiliser des connaissances scientifiques pour satisfaire aux besoins locaux en matière de santé et de développement. C'est pourquoi il y a un besoin de former la prochaine génération de scientifiques africains. Les universités doivent promouvoir, soutenir la recherche ainsi que la formation de sorte que les étudiants puissent participer aux recherches et bénéficier de l'enseignement de chercheur tout au long de leurs formations. La collecte de données sur la santé bucco-dentaire est par conséquent essentielle pour obtenir une vision précise de la situation en Afrique et ainsi mesurer les progrès réalisés. L'objectif de ce travail de recherche est de produire l'avis d'un panel d'experts sur différents items lors d'une consultation Delphi à deux phases. Ceci dans l'optique d'évaluer l'état actuel de la recherche, d'identifier les stratégies afin de promouvoir une meilleure recherche en santé bucco-dentaire en Afrique et de dégager des perspectives pour son progrès. Les analyses soulignent les priorités aux actions à privilégier tout en impliquant un certain nombre de recommandations pour renforcer et promouvoir les capacités de la recherche en santé bucco-dentaire. En fin de compte la solution qui s'imposerait serait de favoriser et d'optimiser la culture de la recherche dans les programmes nationaux de santé bucco-dentaire et d'assurer une large diffusion des résultats de la recherche pour les utiliser à des fins de planification / This work is a contribution to the strengthening of research capacity and the identification of strategies and opportunities to promote better research in oral health in Africa through the filing of the notice of a panel of experts at a Delphi consultation. This especially as systems oral health and scientific knowledge evolves rapidly. However, the African continent is facing many challenges, including the burden of oral diseases and the needs of populations that are huge. To meet these challenges care and ask actions effective public health policy makers need tools, skills and information to assess and monitor health needs, choose intervention strategies, policy options appropriate for the design of their own circumstances and improve system performance oral care. In this context, it is necessary to develop a coherent policy approach to oral health in the African Region, but this implies a better knowledge of the situation. For the advancement of Africa depends on its ability to generate, adapt and use scientific knowledge to meet local needs in health and development. That is why there is an urgent need to build the next generation of African scientists. Universities should promote and support research and training so that students are exposed to research and be taught by researchers throughout their courses. The collection of data on oral health is essential to get an accurate picture of the situation in Africa and to measure progress. Thus the objective of this research is to produce the opinion of a panel of experts on various items at a Delphi consultation two phases. In order to assess the current state of research, identify strategies to promote better research in oral health in Africa and prospects for its development. Analyzes give priorities to focus on the actions and involve a number of recommendations to strengthen and promote the capacity of research in oral health. Ultimately, we must promote a culture of research in national programs of oral health, ensure wide dissemination of research results and use them for planning purposes

Aims: Exercise and physical activity have been found to be beneficial in managing disabilities caused by multiple sclerosis (MS). Despite the known benefits, people with MS (pwMS) are inactive. Research has focused on structured exercise programmes, rarely considering a broader range of activities, which pwMS integrate into everyday life. The aims of this study were to gain in-depth understanding of the priorities and meanings of exercise and physical activity from the perspective of pwMS and to explore how these might inform clinical practice. Methods: a mixed methods approach using three interconnected studies was adopted: Study 1: A four-round Delphi questionnaire scoped and determined consensus of priorities for exercise and physical activity and the reasons why pwMS (n=101) engaged in these activities. Content and statistical analyses were utilised. Study 2: Sixteen face-to-face, semi-structured interviews were conducted with pwMS to explore the meanings ascribed to exercise and physical activity in relation to the Delphi study. Study 3: Three focus groups involving 14 physiotherapists explored perceptions about exercise and physical activity. Data were analysed for studies 2 and 3 using Framework Analysis and themes developed. Results: outcome from each phase 1. Study 1 revealed that the prioritised exercise and physical activity practices and the reasons why pwMS (n=70) undertook these activities were diverse. Consensus was found for the exercise and physical activity practices (W=0.744, p < 0.0001) and the reasons why pwMS engaged in these activities (W=0.723, p < 0.0001). 2. Study 2 demonstrated that the meanings pwMS ascribed to exercise and physical activity was beyond ‘movement’ reflecting how they lived with a variable and progressive condition. Contextual factors, specifically personal factors were dominant influences. 3. Study 3 highlighted that physiotherapists shared similar views in some aspects to pwMS, however physiotherapists perceptions of exercise and physical activity were predominately influenced by their theoretical knowledge. Conclusion: The priorities and meanings ascribed to exercise and physical activity were ‘a matter of perspective’ and context driven. Understanding the strategies used by pwMS for prioritisation might help clinicians support pwMS more effectively in their decision making about exercise and physical activity. Taking this approach creates the opportunity to deliver a more focused patient-centred approach in the management of MS. Recommendations for clinical practice and further research were identified.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / This study aimed to explore how children construct and assign meaning to the 'self' within two urban impoverished communities in the Western Cape, South Africa. Within this process the study aimed to explore how these constructions and meaning assignations were manifested within children's discourses. Additionally, the study aimed to explore the implications of the children's perspectives on developing intervention programmes for the promotion of a healthy self-concept. The study was conducted through three sequential phases; (1) systematic review, (2) child participation, and (3) intervention programme development. Phase one: the systematic review, aimed to systematically review academic literature focused on how children construct and assign meaning to the 'self.' An article search and appraisal yielded 38 articles that met the inclusion criteria. Meta-synthesis was used to analyse the findings. Six central thematic categories emerged as the key influences on children's constructions of the self. These include multidimensionality, discursive practices, socio-environmental conditions, oppression & marginalisation, culture, and social support. Phase two: child participation, consisted of two separate studies. The first study utilized a child participation framework to explore children's discursive constructions of and meanings assigned to the 'self' within two urban communities of the Western Cape, South Africa. Eight focus group discussions were conducted amongst fifty-four children between the ages of 9 to 12. Thematic and discourse analysis were used to analyse the findings. The themes of childhood, social connectedness, and children's spaces were identified to have a vital influence on children's self-concept. Four underlying discourses emerged within the themes as central to the participant's self-constructions. These included; (1) 'forfeited childhood,' (2) 'vulnerability and helplessness,' (3) 'preserving the integrity of the self,' and (4) 'opportunities for escape.' The sequential study aimed to explore how children construct and assign meaning to the 'self' within two urban communities of the Western Cape in South Africa through the use of visual methods. The data collection methods included Photovoice and community maps with 54 participants between the ages of 9 to 12. Feelings of safety, social connectedness, and children's spaces all played a central role in the way in which the participants constructed and assigned meaning to the 'self.' Phase three: Children's programme implications, consisted of a study which aimed to explore children's perceptions of the nature and content of intervention programmes aimed at improving children's self-concept within two impoverished communities of the Western Cape, South Africa. The Delphi technique was followed with a group of ten children between the ages of 10 and 12 years who were considered to be the experts on matters affecting their lives. The participants identified the factors which influence children's self-concept to include; childhood reality, feelings, and relationships. The participants' suggestions for intervention programmes included a focus on safety, social support, opportunities for learning and for play, and basic needs. The study elucidated the value in using participatory methods with children, especially the use of the Delphi method for eliciting children's perspectives for interventions aimed at improving matters related to their well-being. / The Rotary International Foundation

Decision makers have long relied on experts to inform their decision making. Expert judgment analysis is a way to elicit and combine the opinions of a group of experts to facilitate decision making. The use of expert judgment is most appropriate when there is a lack of data for obtaining reasonable statistical results. The experts are asked for advice by one or more decision makers who face a specific real decision problem. The decision makers are outside the group of experts and are jointly responsible and accountable for the decision and committed to finding solutions that everyone can live with. The emphasis is on the decision makers learning from the experts. The focus of this thesis is an overview and comparison of the various elicitation and combination methods available. These include the traditional committee method, the Delphi method, the paired comparisons method, the negative exponential model, Cooke’s classical model, the histogram technique, using the Dirichlet distribution in the case of a set of uncertain proportions which must sum to one, and the employment of overfitting. The supra Bayes approach, the determination of weights for the experts, and combining the opinions of experts where each opinion is associated with a confidence level that represents the expert’s conviction of his own judgment are also considered.

O presente estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver um modelo de habilidades técnicas do ataque da posição quatro e por meio do modelo, analisar o comportamento do ataque da posição quatro na categoria infanto-juvenil masculina. Para o primeiro objetivo, utilizou-se do método delphi, entrevistando-se em dois momentos distintos (1ª e 2ª etapas) 14 treinadores das seleções brasileiras de voleibol masculina e feminina. Enquanto que na primeira etapa foi delineada a estrutura do modelo, na segunda, foi possível elaborar o modelo propriamente dito a partir do nível esperado de consenso. Os resultados demonstraram que, para as onze situações de bloqueio, cento e setenta e duas habilidades técnicas foram relacionadas pelos treinadores, entre as quais, somente quatro (SBT1-I, SBT1-J, SBT3-A e SBT3-S) não alcançaram o critério de consenso estabelecido (média, moda, mediana igual ou superior a 4.0 e desvio padrão igual ou inferior a 0,65). Para o segundo objetivo, foram observados doze jogos em campeonatos mundiais dos anos 2005 e 2007, nos quais foram analisados valores de freqüência de ocorrência e eficácia. Os resultados mostraram maiores ocorrências nas situações de bloqueios duplos seguidas dos bloqueios simples e triplos. Quanto às habilidades técnicas, a corrida de aproximação em diagonal foi a mais utilizada pelos atacantes com opção de ataque direto. As habilidades com ataque explorando o bloqueio ocorreram com maior freqüência frente aos bloqueios duplos e triplos compactos. A análise de correlação de Spearman detectou baixo nível de associação entre freqüência de ocorrência e eficácia. Contudo, a análise de regressão logística (binária e multinomial) entre as habilidades mais freqüentes permitiu verificar que a SBD1-A foi a situação/habilidade que mais ocorreu, no entanto, com menores chances de sucesso entre a maioria das situações/habilidades investigadas. As habilidades técnicas empregadas nas situações de bloqueio simples obtiveram maiores chances de sucesso que as habilidades utilizadas nos bloqueios duplos. Os resultados destacaram o aspecto situacional do ataque, o qual revelou necessidade de aplicação de habilidades técnicas específicas em determinadas estruturas de bloqueio para se obter o sucesso / The objective of this study was to develop a model for attack technical skills in zone four and to analyze the performance of young players through this model. In the first case, through the delphi method and in two distinct moments (1st and 2nd phases), fourteen coaches of the Brazilian male and female teams were interviewed. The structure of the model was designed in the first phase and, by means of consensus, the model itself was eventually designed in the second phase. Results evidenced that 170 attack technical skills were reported by the coaches in eleven block situations, and only four (SBT1-I, SBT1-J, SBT3-A e SBT3-S) did not reach the consensus level (mean, mode, median equal or above 4.0 and standard deviation 0,65). In the second case, twelve games were analyzed during the world championships in years 2005 and 2007 in the frequency and efficacy of actions. The results from the analysis of attack performances from zone four during the world championships showed a larger number in double blocks followed by simple and triple blocks. As for technical skills, the type of run with diagonal approach was the most used by attack players with the option of direct attack. Techniques where attack explores blocking were most common in compact double and triple blocks. The Spearman correlation analysis showed no relation between frequency and efficacy. However, a logistic regression analysis (binary and multinomial) between the most frequent techniques evidenced that SBD1-A block/skill situation was the most frequent but least likely to success. Technical skills in simple block situations were more likely to be successful than those in double blocks. The results also highlighted the situational aspect of attack that requires specific technical skills for certain block structures to be successful

Submitted by Nadir Basilio (nadirsb@uninove.br) on 2018-04-13T18:14:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Cleverton Santos Reche.pdf: 2749690 bytes, checksum: 69d6333ae48031e32c4331a9736c6346 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-13T18:14:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cleverton Santos Reche.pdf: 2749690 bytes, checksum: 69d6333ae48031e32c4331a9736c6346 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-06-28 / Currently, large metropolises seek to improve the quality of life of their population in aspects of urban mobility. Ethanol is a renewable biofuel, of great relevance to Brazil, because it is a clean fuel. Increased consumption compared to other fossil fuels could have a positive impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The research question that guided the study was: what scenarios for ethanol produced in Brazil in 2030? For this, this work adopted the format of independent and sequential studies, totaling 3 studies. Study I was carried out, based on a search in the Web of Science database, with the objective of verifying the construction of the knowledge of the theme "Prospective Scenarios", through the identification of the main publications and authors, based on an analysis Bibliometric. We found 232 articles, which were ranked in descending order of the most cited author for the least cited. This study was developed from an exploratory factorial analysis and five factors were identified. Subsequently, study II was developed with the objective of reviewing and comparing the methodologies of prospective scenarios to identify the most used methods and to compare the methods. The articles were separated into groups of relevant relevance for the theme to later carry out a comparative analysis, providing a view of the practical aspects of scenario planning, such as the selection and the appropriate number of scenarios for validation. Finally, study III was elaborated with the objective of proposing scenarios for the ethanol produced in Brazil in 2030. The data collection was done by sending a questionnaire to specialists on the subject, via the internet, following the guidelines of the Delphi method. Three prospective scenarios were elaborated: a probable scenario, an exploratory scenario and a normative scenario. The scenarios were based on the context of the sugarcane sector, through the uncertainties, opportunities and threats and the analysis of complex environments presented in the study. / Atualmente as grandes metrópoles buscam melhorar a qualidade de vida de sua população em aspectos a mobilidade urbana. O etanol é um biocombustível renovável, de grande relevância para o Brasil, porque é um combustível limpo. O aumento do seu consumo frente a outros combustíveis fósseis poderá ter um impacto positivo na redução de emissões de gases de efeito estufa. A pergunta de pesquisa que norteou o estudo foi: quais seriam os cenários para o etanol produzido no Brasil em 2030? Para tanto, este trabalho adotou o formato de estudos independentes e sequenciais, somando ao todo, 3 estudos. O estudo I foi realizado, a partir de uma busca na base de dados Web of Science, com o objetivo de verificar a construção do conhecimento do tema “Cenários Prospectivos”, por meio da identificação das principais publicações e autores, a partir de uma análise bibliométrica. Foram encontrados 232 artigos, os quais foram classificados por ordem decrescente do autor mais citado para o menos citado. Este estudo foi desenvolvido a partir de uma análise fatorial exploratória e foram identificados cinco fatores. Na sequência, foi desenvolvido o estudo II com o objetivo de revisar e comparar as metodologias de cenários prospectivos para identificar os métodos mais utilizados e realizar a comparação entre os métodos. Os artigos foram separados em grupos de relevância pelo tema para, posteriormente, realizar uma análise comparativa, fornecendo uma visão dos aspectos práticos do planejamento de cenários, como a seleção e o número apropriado de cenários para validação. Por fim, foi elaborado o estudo III com o objetivo de propor cenários para o etanol produzido no Brasil em 2030. A coleta dos dados foi a partir do envio de um questionário a especialistas sobre o tema, via internet, seguindo as diretrizes do método Delphi. Foram elaborados 3 cenários prospectivos: um cenário provável, um cenário exploratório e um cenário normativo. Os cenários tiveram como base o contexto do setor sucroenergético, por meio das incertezas, oportunidades e ameaças e a análise de ambientes complexos apresentados no estudo.

There is a dearth of validated neonatal feeding assessment instruments available for use in clinical practice in resource-constrained developing contexts. The Neonatal Feeding Assessment Scale (NFAS) was developed to identify and diagnose oropharyngeal dysphagia (OPD) in neonates. The main aim of the study was to develop and test the psychometric performance of a clinical assessment scale for the early identification and diagnosis of OPD in the high-risk neonatal population in South Africa. To meet the main aim, the research project was divided into three separate studies. The research design across the three studies was an exploratory sequential mixedmethod design. The NFAS was developed using the Delphi method in the first study. Two international and three South African speech-language therapists (SLTs) formed the expert panel that participated in two rounds of electronic questioning to develop the instrument. For the second and third studies, a comparative crosssectional within-subject design was used. In the second study the participants were 20 neonates with a median age of 35.0 weeks gestational age (GA) in a 29-bed neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). In the third study 48 participants with a median age of 35.5 weeks GA were included. During the second study the preliminary psychometric performance of the NFAS was determined and in the third study, the final psychometric properties of the NFAS were determined to describe the validity and reliability of the NFAS. The NFAS was developed and approved, using expert collaboration through the Delphi method in the first study. All participants agreed on the need for the development of a valid clinical feeding assessment instrument to use with the highrisk neonatal population. The initial NFAS consisted of 240 items across 8 sections; after the Delphi process was implemented, the final format was reduced to 211 items across 6 sections. The final format of the NFAS is scored using a binary scoring system guiding the clinician to identify the presence or absence of OPD. All members agreed on the format, the scoring system and the feeding constructs addressed in the final format of the NFAS. The second study showed that 9 out of 20 participants presented with OPD on the NFAS. Comparison of NFAS results with modified barium swallow studies (MBSS). indicated that all participants with OPD were correctly identified (100% specificity). The sensitivity was 78.6%, indicating that three participants were falsely identified with OPD on the NFAS. The instrument took approximately 30 minutes to complete during observation of a habitual feeding session with the mother. Inter-rater reliability was determined on 50% (n=10) of the study sample. Substantial agreement (80%) was obtained between two raters in five of the six sections of the NFAS and on the diagnostic outcome of the scale. The preliminary performance of the NFAS appeared to be promising. The formal validation process of the NFAS then followed on a larger sample in the third study. Results of the third study indicated that 15 of the 48 participants were identified with OPD on the NFAS, whereas 14 of these 15 infants were diagnosed on MBSS. A sensitivity score of 78.6% was obtained, with specificity determined to be 88.2% for the newly developed NFAS. The subsequent accuracy of the NFAS to identify OPD correctly was 85.4% when compared with the MBSS outcome. Inter-rater reliability was determined using 35% of the sample. The agreement on overall instrument outcome between the two raters was considered substantial beyond chance, with Cohen's Kappa at 0.598, with an asymptotic standard error of 0.211. The scale may be of use to SLTs working without MBSS equipment and to reach underserved preterm neonates. Inexperienced SLTs may benefit from observational prompts provided by the NFAS. The NFAS may be suitable for use in South Africa and similar developing contexts to identify and diagnose high-risk neonates with OPD. / Thesis (DPhil)--University of Pretoria, 2016. / Speech-Language Pathology and Audiology / DPhil / Unrestricted