This thesis is an attempt to bridge some research gaps in the area of behavioural finance and investment through adopting the three essays scheme of PhD dissertations. There is a widespread belief that the traditional finance theory failed to provide a sufficient and plausible explanation for (1) what motivates individual investors to trade, (2) the pattern of their trading and the formation of their portfolios, (3) the determinants of cross section of expected returns other than risk. Behavioural Finance, however, offers more realistic assumptions based on two building blocks; behavioural biases of irrational investors and the limits of arbitrage that prevent the arbitrageurs from correcting mispricing and pushing prices back to fundamental values. This dissertation is structured as follows: In the first essay, the disposition effect is defined as the propensity of investors to realize gains too early while being loath to realize losses. Capital gains overhang is a measure of unrealized capital gains and losses that is associated with the disposition effect and the trading activities of behaviourally biased investors. We discover that firm characteristics can play a role in explaining variations in the capital gains overhang that is consistent with the activities of behaviourally biased and disposition investors. Specifically, we find that capital gains overhang is increasing in firm attributes that attract behaviourally biased investors, namely, earnings per share, leverage, growth and size. Capital gains overhang is also declining in market liquidity, possibly because liquidity allows behaviourally biased investors to excessively trade shares and beta and corporate earnings, probably because when high risk and inefficient firms experience losses, disposition investors experience capital losses that they are reluctant to realize. In the second essay, quantile regressions are employed to analyse the relationship between the unrealized capital gains overhang and expected returns. The ability of the disposition effect to generate momentum is also considered for the extreme expected return regions (0.05th) and (0.95th) quantiles. To do so, 450,617 observations belonging to 5176 US firms are employed, covering a time span from January 1998 to June 2015. Following the methodology of Grinblatt and Han (2005), the findings show significant differences across various quantiles in terms of signs and magnitudes. These findings indicate a nonlinear relationship between capital gains overhang and expected returns since the impact of capital gains overhang as a proxy for disposition effect on expected returns vary across the expected return distribution. More precisely, the coefficients of capital gains overhang are significantly positive and decline as the expected returns quantiles increase from the lowest to the median expected return quantiles. However, they become significantly negative and rise with the increase in expected returns quantiles above median expected returns quantiles. The findings also suggest that the disposition effect is not a good noisy proxy for momentum at the lowest expected return quantile (0.05th). However, interestingly it seems to generate contrarian in returns at the highest expected returns quantile (0.95th). In the third essays, we try to discover systematic disagreements in momentum, asymmetric volatility and the idiosyncratic risk momentum return relationship between high-tech stocks and low-tech stocks. We develop several hypotheses that suggest greater momentum profits, fainter asymmetric volatility and weaker idiosyncratic risk-momentum return relation in the high-tech stocks relative to the low tech stocks. To this end, we divide 5795 stocks that are listed in the Russell 3000 index from January 1995 to December 2015 into two samples SIC code and analysed them using the Fama French with GJR-GARCH-M term. The results show that the high-tech stocks provide greater momentum profits especially for portfolios that have holding and ranking periods of less than 12 months. In most cases momentum returns in the high-tech stocks explain a symmetric response to good and bad news while the momentum returns in the low-tech stocks show an asymmetric response. Finally, the idiosyncratic risk-momentum return relation is insignificant for high-tech stocks while it is significant and negative for low-tech stocks. That is, as idiosyncratic risk increases, momentum decreases for low-tech stocks. These findings are robust to different momentum strategies and to different breakpoints.

O efeito disposição, originalmente proposto por Shefrin e Statman (1985), preconiza que os investidores tendem a vender ações com lucro em um curto período de tempo e manter ações com prejuízo por um longo período de tempo. A despeito da ampla gama de evidências sobre o assunto, as razões que levariam os investidores a manifestar esse viés comportamental ainda é motivo de uma controvérsia importante entre motivações racionais e comportamentais. Neste trabalho, o objetivo foi testar duas motivações comportamentais concorrentes para explicar o efeito disposição: a teoria perspectiva e o viés da reversão à média. Para cumprir esse objetivo, foi feita uma análise das transações mensais de compra e venda de uma amostra de 51 fundos de investimento em ações brasileiros, no período de 2002 a 2008. A análise envolveu a estimação de dois modelos de regressão de variável dependente qualitativa. O primeiro consistiu em um modelo logit binário cujo propósito foi determinar a probabilidade de um gestor realizar um ganho ou uma perda de capital em razão de variáveis de retorno das ações. O segundo foi um modelo logit ordenado cujo objetivo foi verificar a existência de uma relação entre as variáveis de retorno e o volume monetário vendido das ações. Em ambos os modelos, os parâmetros estimados para as variáveis de retorno das ações foram interpretados como um coeficiente de disposição, sendo que a proposição desse coeficiente consistiu na principal contribuição da pesquisa. Os resultados dos modelos estimados trouxeram evidências de que a teoria perspectiva parece permear o processo decisório dos gestores dos fundos analisados. Já no caso da hipótese de que o efeito disposição é decorrente do viés da reversão à média, não foi possível corroborá-la com base nos resultados aqui relatados. / The disposition effect, originally proposed by Shefrin and Statman (1985), predicts that investors tend to sell winning stocks too soon and ride losing stocks too long. Despite the wide range of research evidence about this issue, the reasons that lead investors to act this way is still subject to much controversy between rational and behavioral explanations. In this thesis, the main goal was to test two competing behavioral motivations to justify the disposition effect: prospect theory and mean reversion bias. To achieve this goal, an analysis of monthly transactions for a sample of 51 Brazilian stock funds from 2002 to 2008 was conducted. The analysis involved the estimation of two regression models with qualitative dependent variable. The first one consisted of a binary logit model whose purpose was to set the probability of a manager to realize a capital gain or loss as a function of the stock return. The second one was an ordered logit model whose objective was to verify the existence of a relationship between stock returns and the monetary volume sold. In both models, the estimated parameters for the stock return variables were interpreted as a disposition coefficient and the proposition of this coefficient was the main contribution of the research. The results of the estimated models brought evidence that prospect theory seems to guide the decision making process of the managers of the analyzed funds. The hypothesis that the disposition effect is due to mean reversion bias could not be confirmed based on the results reported here.

På aktiemarknaden finns det stora mängder kapital och en ansenlig del av detta kapital förvaltas aktivt av professionella fondförvaltare. Att psykologiska aspekter kan påverka beslut gällande investeringar är känt genom tidigare forskning, men huruvida professionella investerare påverkas av det vid investeringsbeslut är mindre känt. Studien syftar till att undersöka vilken påverkan de psykologiska fallgroparna disposition effect och herding har på förvaltare på svenska fondbolag. I undersökningen har åtta institutionella fondförvaltare deltagit och genom semistrukturerade intervjuer har ett antal teman fångats upp för att sedan analyseras. Utifrån den insamlade datan och efterföljande analys uppvisade förvaltarna tendenser till att falla för vissa aspekter av de psykologiska fallgroparna. Den fallgrop som studien fann starkast stöd för hos förvaltarna var benägenhet att falla i disposition effect, de tenderar att hålla sina förlorare för länge medans de släpper sina vinnare för tidigt.

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In this dissertation, we examine whether the disposition effect, the tendency to sell winners and hold losers, exists among U.S. equity mutual funds and how the disposition effect influences fund performance and particularly flows. We find that a significant fraction (32%) of all funds exhibit some degree of disposition behavior. These funds underperform funds that are not disposition prone by 4-6% per year. Moreover, we find that the disposition effect has a significant impact on future fund flows. Without controlling for performance, disposition-prone funds experience 2-3% less flows each quarter than other funds. The difference in flows is probably due to poor performance of such funds. However, even after controlling for performance and other factors that potentially influence flows, funds with a high disposition effect experience 0.7-2% less flows than funds without such behavior. Past research has found that funds with low tax overhang garner larger inflows. Though disposition-prone funds are likely to have a lower tax overhang because they sell their winners quickly, we find that fund flows to disposition-prone funds are smaller than flows to non-disposition oriented funds after controlling for tax overhang. These results suggest that performance and tax efficiency as well as tax overhang are all important to mutual fund investors. / Ph. D.

Can the HEXACO personality dimensions and facets be used to explain the principal-agent problem and the disposition effect? The proposed research is designed to address the relationship between personality dimensions and individuals’ propensity to engage in self-interested behavior (agency effect) and irrational investment decisions (disposition effect). This paper proposes a correlational study that will be one of the first to apply Ashton and Lee’s (2009) HEXACO framework of personality to examine the association between the six personality dimensions and measurements of the agency and disposition effect. The HEXACO model of personality dimension includes Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, Openness to Experience, Extraversion, Conscientiousness, and Agreeableness. Total participants in both experiments will be 480 undergraduate college students. Participating students will complete the HEXACO-60 self-report inventory and take part in a stock simulation where measurements of interests are recorded. Higher scores along the Honesty-Humility and Emotionality dimensions are expected to have a strong negative relationship with the agency effect measurement, while Openness to Experience, Conscientiousness, Agreeableness, and Extraversion will have a weak to moderate positive association. Higher scores along the Emotionality dimensions are expected to have a strong negative association with the disposition effect measurement, while lower scores of Conscientiousness are expected to have a positive relationship.

台灣投資人在股票市場的投資行為有明顯的短線進出現象，且在股票有獲利時就急著把手上的獲利實現，若是股票呈現虧損，則一直不肯實現損失，此行為即是行為財務學中所探討的「處分效果」。個人在投信公司任職期間發現，基金投資人的投資行為也出現相同的現象，為了驗證處分效果是否亦存在於基金投資人身上，個人以匯豐中華投信系列基金之投資人為研究對象，並選定發行日期在2000年以前並存續至今的七檔基金為研究的目標基金，欲驗證處分效果是否存在於基金投資人的投資行為中。 在以整體投資人為研究對象下發現，台灣的共同基金投資人存在處分效果，且當持有期間以月份為單位時的處分效果比以半年為單位時的處分效果強烈。若將基金投資人依屬性分類為自然人與法人，分別探討其處分效果發現，自然人與法人均存在處分效果。 一般認為，法人比自然人有更專業的投資評斷與投資理性，處分行為應該比自然人輕微，但實證結果發現，自然人的處分效果只有在持有間以月份為單位時達到顯著；持有期間以半年為單位時則沒有觀察到處分現象。法人則不論持有期間的單位為月份或是半年，均存在處分效果。原因可能是法人在季底或是月底，有將會計帳上的壓力，導致法人所表現出的處分效果高於自然人的處分效果。 市場行情可能也會影響處分效果，本研究依據台灣經濟新報資料庫的台灣大盤加權指數資料，將2000年至2003年6月定義為空頭，2003年7月至2006年底定義為多頭，進行處分效果的驗證。研究結果顯示，基金投資人在多頭時期的處分效果比空頭時期的處分效果顯著，推究其原因可能是投資人在空頭時對獲利的基金會想立即實現獲利，把賺到的前穩當的放到口袋。在多頭時則因為心裡預期手中虧損的基金一定會有獲利的一天，而不願損失將兌現。 投資人應該對自己的投資組合設定停損與停利點，以減少因為心理因素驅動的投資行為減少投資獲利。

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:26:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Felipe Bogea Gomes.pdf: 1266868 bytes, checksum: 3f80f28445de246a00a3f3fa54b5db6d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-08-09 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / Among the fields of study of behavioral finance is the identification of how emotions and cognitive errors can influence the decision process of investors. Published works in experimental psychology and behavioral finance indicated the use of heuristics behavio rs and their consequent biases in the decision process of agents participating in the financial market. The current research aims to recognize possible cognitive illusions shown by the Brazilian individual investor in their decision process, and also wishes to obtain more information about these biases, relating the empirical results to the theories of beha vioral finance. With that in mind, this thesis proposes to answer the following questions: is there evidence of the disposition effect and of the biases of anchoring with insufficient adjustment and overconfidence in the decision process of the Brazilian investor? How could these behaviors be related to personal traits of investors? In order to analyze the decision process of investors, a specific research instrument was developed. It is a questionnaire composed of 38 questions, 27 of which relating to biases and 11 to personal traits of investors. The contact with the investors was made possible through a partnership with the National Institute of Investors (INI in the Portuguese acronym). The Institute invited its associates to participate in the research through email and indicated the website where the questionnaire was available. In this way, each investor accessed the website and filled out the questionnaire on line. A non-probabilistic sample was used, made up of investors from different states in Brazil. After the exclusion of non-valid questionnaires, there remained a sample of 512 individuals. The results of this research are evidence of the presence of the disposition effect, of anchoring with insufficient adjustment and of overconfidence, but they do not prove their connection to the personal characteristics of investors. The presence of cognitive illusions has been documented in several countries and situations. However, in Brazil, as far as we know, their presence in a sample made up of investors participating in the Brazilian stock market had not been identified yet. Therefore, the results obtained contribute to confirm evidence from other countries, showing that the Brazilian investor is also subject to such behavior. The failure to verify the relationship of the cognitive errors with the characteristics of investors permits us to suggest the use of other variables in future works since part of the literature finds evidence of these relationships in certain specific characteristics. Although the research instruments lack formal validation, they contribute to the establishment of simple, easily applicable instruments that may identify cognitive illusions detrimental to Brazilian investors. / Uma das vertentes de estudos de finanças comportamentais é a identificação de como as emoções e os erros cognitivos podem influenciar o processo de decisão de investidores. Trabalhos de psicologia experimental e finanças comportamentais evidenciaram o uso de heurísticas e dos vieses decorrentes destas no processo decisório dos agentes participantes do mercado financeiro. A presente pesquisa tem como objetivo conhecer e obter maiores informações sobre possíveis falhas cognitivas exibidas pelo investidor individual brasileiro durante seu processo decisório, relacionando seus resultados empíricos às teorias de finanças comportamentais. Assim, este trabalho se propôs a responder as seguintes perguntas: há evidências do efeito disposição e dos vieses da ancoragem com ajustamento insuficiente e do excesso de confiança no processo decisório do investidor brasileiro? De que maneira tais comportamentos poderiam estar relacionados com características pessoais dos investidores? Para a análise do processo decisório dos investidores foi desenvolvido um instrumento de pesquisa específico. O instrumento é um questionário composto por 38 perguntas, sendo 27 relacionadas às falhas cognitivas e 11 às características pessoais dos investidores. O contato com os investidores foi possível através de uma parceria com o Instituto Nacional dos Investidores (INI). O Instituto convidou seus associados, por email, a participar da pesquisa, indicando um sítio da internet. Cada investidor interessado acessou voluntariamente o sítio da internet e preencheu o questionário on-line. Foi utilizada uma amostra não probabilística, composta por investidores localizados em diferentes estados do Brasil. Após a exclusão dos questionários não válidos, obteve-se uma amostra de 512 indivíduos. Os resultados encontrados evidenciaram a ocorrência do efeito disposição e dos vieses da ancoragem com ajustamento insuficiente e do excesso de confiança, mas não constataram associações entre estes e as características pessoais dos investidores. A presença dessas falhas cognitivas em investidores tem sido documentada em diferentes países e situações. Todavia no Brasil, até onde sabemos, ainda não havia sido verificada sua presença em uma amostra composta por investidores atuantes no mercado acionário nacional. Portanto, os resultados obtidos contribuem no sentido de confirmar as evidências encontradas em outros países, mostrando que os investidores brasileiros também estão sujeitos a tais comportamentos. A não verificação das relações entre as falhas cognitivas e as características dos investidores permite sugerir a utilização de outras variáveis em trabalhos futuros, pois uma parte da literatura encontra evidência destas relações para algumas características específicas. Embora o instrumento de pesquisa empregado careça de validação formal, acreditamos que ele contribui na direção de se estabelecer um instrumento simples, de fácil aplicação e capaz de identificar falhas cognitivas possivelmente prejudiciais aos investidores brasileiros.

Background: The year 2022 was eventful and marked by a significant stock market decline. Private investors faced increased pressure to remain calm and not fall into the trap of psychological biases that are particularly destructive during periods like this one. This has contributed to why individuals choose to seek guidance from professional advisers. But the question is whether professional advisers could avoid these psychological biases during this period? A professional adviser should, based on their education, have the ability to minimize the risk of psychological biases that investments can lead to. Their work includes mandatory knowledge updates from the license issuer, Swedsec. The knowledge update 2021 included knowledge of behavioral finance, but the question is whether this knowledge has changed the work of a professional adviser? Because if even professional advisers cannot avoid psychological pitfalls, what is the point of taking guidance? Purpose: The purpose of the study is to map professional advisers' knowledge of behavioral finance and how overconfidence, herd behavior and the disposition effect can be observed in their advisory process during the 2022 stock market decline. Furthermore, the study aims to analyze and create an understanding of how the work of professional advisers has changed since the knowledge update 2021. Method: To fulfill the purpose of the study, a qualitative method has been used and nine semi-structured interviews with Swedsec-licensed professional advisers have been held. Furthermore, an abductive approach has been adopted to have the opportunity to test the interaction between previous theories and the reality but also to be able to find new theories and patterns based on real observations. Conclusion: The results of the study showed that the knowledge of behavioral finance among professional advisers is inadequate but not necessarily wrong. The psychological biases have, more or less, been observed in the advisory process during 2022 where the most prominent bias was the disposition effect. Despite the lack of knowledge, professional advisers have developed unconscious strategies that can mitigate, but not eliminate, the risk of falling into the trap of psychological biases. Finally, none of the advisers have changed their work after Swedsec's 2021 knowledge update to prevent irrational behavior. / Bakgrund: Börsåret 2022 var ett händelserikt år som präglades av en betydande börsnedgång. Icke- professionella investerare stod således inför ökad press att behålla lugnet och inte falla offer för psykologiska bias som är särskilt destruktiva i perioder som denna. Detta har bidragit till varför individer väljer att söka vägledning från professionella rådgivare. Frågan är dock om professionella rådgivare själva kunde motstå att falla offer för psykologiska bias under den här perioden? En professionell rådgivare bör, utifrån deras utbildning, ha förmågan att minimera risken att falla för psykologiska bias i investeringssammanhang. Deras arbete innefattar även obligatoriska kunskapsuppdateringar från licensutgivaren Swedsec. Kunskapsuppdateringen 2021 innehöll att rådgivaren ska ha kännedom kring ekonomisk psykologi, men frågan är om den kunskapen har nått ut och förändrat de professionella rådgivarnas arbete? För om inte ens professionella rådgivare lyckas motstå psykologiska fallgropar, kommer deras vägledning således mer stjälpa än hjälpa kunden? Syfte: Syftet med studien är att kartlägga professionella rådgivares kännedom kring beteendefinans samt hur överkonfidens, flockbeteende och dispositionseffekten kan tydas i deras rådgivning under 2022 års börsnedgång. Vidare syftar studien till att analysera och skapa förståelse för hur arbetet förändrats hos de professionella rådgivarna sedan kunskapsuppdateringen 2021. Metod: För att uppfylla studiens syfte har en kvalitativ metod använts och nio semistrukturerade intervjuer med Swedsec-licenserade professionella rådgivare genomförts. Vidare har en abduktiv ansats antagits för att ha möjlighet att testa samspelet mellan tidigare teorier och verkligheten men även kunna hitta nya teorier och mönster utifrån verkliga observationer. Slutsats: Studiens resultat visade att det fanns bristande kännedom kring beteendefinans bland de professionella rådgivarna. Det betyder dock inte att den befintliga kunskapen är felaktig. Under börsåret 2022 kunde de utvalda börspsykologiska faktorerna antydas i rådgivningen, men i varierande grad, där den mest framträdande biasen var dispositionseffekten. Trots den bristfälliga kännedomen har de professionella rådgivarna utvecklat omedvetna strategier för att mildra, men inte eliminera, risken att falla för psykologiska bias. Slutligen har ingen av rådgivarna förändrat sitt arbetssätt efter Swedsecs kunskapsuppdatering från 2021 för att förhindra irrationellt beteende.

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